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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Pro_Rata said:

    Should we be worried about the heat map of Cases by specimen date age demographics?

    That concerns me a little. I guess the key piece of information is the balance of vaccinated to unvaccinated cases as it progresses into older people. If it's mainly vaccinated mild cases, then there are fewer hospital capacity worries than if it is finding the unvaccinated effectively.

    Watch for how deaths and hospitalisation follow cases, or not, in the next couple of weeks. I have to say, the Hospitalisation increase has been slowing down.

    The other thing is that the decrease in cases is for something of a hiatus period - after the Euros but before the nightclub reopening. I expect clubbing is a large enough niche to turn the case figures northwards again temporarily, though with the decrease now, I'm hopeful it will not top the case figures of a week or so ago.
    It's massively the younger groups making up the cases

    15-19 age group overtaking 20-24 age group in to the lead to as the most affected age group, and 10-14 overtaking 25-29 as the third most affected.

    This weeks decline in numbers looks to me to be much more that vaccines are doing there thing, much more that schools braking up.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,928

    Leon said:

    I’ve just had the mortifying self revelation that Piers Morgan is me, drunk, at about 11pm on PB, posting stuff I kind of half believe, and is sometimes accurate, but is also commonly foolish, and often wildly embarrassing

    Except he does it at noon to about 4m people

    ‘I don’t think Silver and Bronze medals are shameful, but no real champion would ever feel comfortable having one in their trophy cabinet.’

    Its more sad midlife crisis attention seeking twattering.
    But what about Piers?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,457
    edited July 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW – Leadership Favourability Ratings:

    Boris Johnson / Keir Starmer

    Net Rating: -10% (+3) / -2% (+12)

    Favourable 37% (+2) / 33% (+6)
    Neutral 15% (-2) / 26% (+1)
    Unfavourable 47% (-1) / 35% (-7)

    1,013 respondents, fieldwork 23 July '21. Changes w/ 19-20 July '21.

    Boris still has a 4 point lead over Keir.

    Is Keir ever going to breakthrough?
    Um, I think you mean Keir has an 8 point lead over Boris?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,154

    What happened to that other poll that was promised for this afternoon?

    Wasn't it 5:30?
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Andy_JS said:

    Boris's opening up on 19th July doesn't seem to have generated the increase in cases that many were expecting.

    I think too much time is spent looking for reasons for the way the virus behaves. The virus will always do what it wants and I know I keep saying it but the way cases fell of a cliff in India despite there being very little social distancing there showed that Delta infects quickly and then just as quickly stops infecting. It happened in Scotland, Holland and its now happening in England.

    Its why it was the most astute move to not open up in June. The Government knew big case rises were coming and knew the headlines they would get.

    If you remember they refused to open up when there were 6,000 cases per day but did open up when there were 50,000 cases per day. They knew the way Delta behaved.
    I think there was a lot of fear in India, with all the stories about people desperately searching for oxygen for their sick relatives. There would have been more voluntary isolation then you think. There are always discretionary activities that people can cut out.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    rkrkrk said:

    So, the updated multicoloured reported-cases-for-England chart is below.
    Looking remarkably good.

    Really incredible. It doesn't make sense that we have reached herd immunity given the completely different levels of prevalence across regions?

    Feels like given how sudden the drop is -> must be to do with the schools closing.
    But the fall in Scotland is so steep, it's similar to the lockdown impact in January.
    It's certainly nothing to do with herd immunity because, if that were the cause of the reduction in cases, it would be a plateau first and then a gradual fall-off. And I think it's too early to be schools closing - that effect should be about to kick in (together with any offsetting increase from the great Freedom Day damp squib).

    Such a steep fall is frankly rather mysterious. The best explanation seems to be that there was a sharp temporary peak because of the football, and maybe it is just that.

    Anyway, it's not often that we get unexpectedly good news!
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,246
    Andy_JS said:

    Boris's opening up on 19th July doesn't seem to have generated the increase in cases that many were expecting.

    Boris Johnson being forced to delay the ending of restrictions by four weeks looks to have been a stroke of undeserved good fortune.

    The end of the school term will of course have been the driver behind the fall in cases but that won't, I imagine, stop those who support the Prime Minister from claiming the whole affair as an example of his "tactical genius".
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,825
    Leon said:

    stjohn said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story

    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    I've had £12.50 on Tom Daley to win SPOTY at 200. He also has a chance of another medal in the individual 10m platform diving event on Saturday 6th August.

    Rashford won't be on the ballot for SPOTY.
    That’s a fantastic bet. Chapeau

    So you could win £2500?

    Genius. When did you place it?
    22.07.21. So 3-4 days before his first event.
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