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Page not found – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 26 in General
Page not found – politicalbetting.com

It looks like nothing was found at this location. Maybe try one of the links below or a search?

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    First like Tom Daley.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    Second like some other athlete who won't get a mention in the headlines.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,861
    edited July 26
    There have been other recent comments that also imply that Trump plans to run in 2024.

    And if he does he will be the GOP nominee as the Republican membership was shifted towards the more looneyer right over the past 4 years.

    So the only reason he won't run is down to actuary risks which I'm not 100% sure about but have to be less than the current odds.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,114
    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,114
    On topic of course the Donald is a candidate for the Presidency. Even if he fails to secure the GOP ticket he will push them so far to the right that it should be nailed on for a Democrat hold.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    The CDC puts his life expectancy (75yo white male American) at 10 years; assuming those factors balance out, that would suggest he's likely still *alive* in 2023-24, and make-up and event management probably deal with the rest.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    I'm short of this at 6. Worst position in my politics portfolio. Well underwater. Drop dead Donald.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lol, BetVictor would only allow me £2 @ 50-1 on Tom Daley for SPoTY.

    Lucky to get that now he's won. What price Matty Lee?
    I wonder if Tom Pidcock counts for the powerful SPotY cycling lobby.
    He’s England’s best one-day road cyclist by a long way; and MTB, obviously. But the problem is the UK is unusually obsessed by stage racing and velodrome events, and he doesn’t feature there at all.
    Because Team GB has been extremely successful in track cycling events since 2008. A certain Chris Hoy started it all off.
    No. Velodrome has been popular in England for over a century. Mainly because road racing was made virtually impossible due to daft local authorities.
    And quite a few before Chris Hoy, too. I'm not well acquainted with the Scots, though.

    Leaving aside the likes of Chris Boardman, you can go back to folks like Reg Harris, who won 4 world titles in the 1940s/50s.

    Did we ever have the Belgian tradition of week-long track races?
    Yes. In fact, accordingly to Wikipedia it is not a Belgian tradition but a British one!

    “ Six-day races started in Britain, spread to many regions of the world, were brought to their modern style in the United States and are now mainly a European event.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-day_racing

    I wonder if the Flemish edition of Wikipedia says the same thing? 😀

    (I also wonder what they say about the origins of fish suppers…)

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,760
    I see this on Vanilla at the top of this thread so maybe someone pressed the wrong button?

    Page not found – politicalbetting.com

    It looks like nothing was found at this location. Maybe try one of the links below or a search?

    Read the full story here
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,880
    Wouldn't the results of the 2022 mid terms have an effect ?

    If the GOP do well then plenty of 'serious' candidates might emerge.

    If the Dems hold the House and Senate then the field might be left to Trump and outsiders.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    How does Burnham get into the Commons?

    He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

    An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,128

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    How can you judge his complexion under all that orange ?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    mwadams said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    The CDC puts his life expectancy (75yo white male American) at 10 years; assuming those factors balance out, that would suggest he's likely still *alive* in 2023-24, and make-up and event management probably deal with the rest.
    Only so much that makeup and a wig can do. Eventually Mother Nature gets the better of all of us, even handsome chaps like me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,286

    Wouldn't the results of the 2022 mid terms have an effect ?

    If the GOP do well then plenty of 'serious' candidates might emerge.

    If the Dems hold the House and Senate then the field might be left to Trump and outsiders.

    Surely if the the Dems do that well the Reps might split.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,128
    So far I've followed a lay everyone except Trump and DeSantis strategy for the nomination.
    Not sure I'd want to put too much on Trump winning it, though.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,003

    Wouldn't the results of the 2022 mid terms have an effect ?

    If the GOP do well then plenty of 'serious' candidates might emerge.

    If the Dems hold the House and Senate then the field might be left to Trump and outsiders.

    The opposite. If GOP do well in 2022 it is validation of Trump. And Trump will be President regardless of true result of 2024 as the office holders involved will blatantly lie and steal the election.

    If GOP do badly, that is when the serious candidates might band together to take on the Trumpist fascists.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,592

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lol, BetVictor would only allow me £2 @ 50-1 on Tom Daley for SPoTY.

    Lucky to get that now he's won. What price Matty Lee?
    I wonder if Tom Pidcock counts for the powerful SPotY cycling lobby.
    He’s England’s best one-day road cyclist by a long way; and MTB, obviously. But the problem is the UK is unusually obsessed by stage racing and velodrome events, and he doesn’t feature there at all.
    Because Team GB has been extremely successful in track cycling events since 2008. A certain Chris Hoy started it all off.
    No. Velodrome has been popular in England for over a century. Mainly because road racing was made virtually impossible due to daft local authorities.
    And quite a few before Chris Hoy, too. I'm not well acquainted with the Scots, though.

    Leaving aside the likes of Chris Boardman, you can go back to folks like Reg Harris, who won 4 world titles in the 1940s/50s.

    Did we ever have the Belgian tradition of week-long track races?
    Yes. In fact, accordingly to Wikipedia it is not a Belgian tradition but a British one!

    “ Six-day races started in Britain, spread to many regions of the world, were brought to their modern style in the United States and are now mainly a European event.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-day_racing

    I wonder if the Flemish edition of Wikipedia says the same thing? 😀

    (I also wonder what they say about the origins of fish suppers…)

    No Flemish version sadly but the French version if anything makes the event seem more anglo-centric, not helped by the fact that the French call the madison "la course à l'américaine". Of course when you think about it the Madison (named after the Square Gardens) is about as American name as they come, but the impact isn't the same.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,213

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,003
    Nigelb said:

    So far I've followed a lay everyone except Trump and DeSantis strategy for the nomination.
    Not sure I'd want to put too much on Trump winning it, though.

    Back Trump for the nomination and lay him for popular vote in the main election. Both winners.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,114
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    How does Burnham get into the Commons?

    He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

    An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM
    I can't see how Starmer gets ousted - whatever putsch the loony left thought they were going to pull off is surely dead. So if he goes then he goes on his own terms and you would imagine would have an idea about who succeeds him.

    So get Lucy Powell - who nominated Burnham to step upstairs to the Other Place and hand Burnham her Manchester Central seat and its 29k Labour majority. Burnham is an MP before nominations close. Job done.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,870
    Stand, probably. The question is how the hell does he campaign now that all the big social media sites have essentially neutered him? He's reliant on the MSM making the same mistakes as previously in giving him free publicity, and even then all that publicity will be fiercely negative. Or in a new site with a more liberal attitude coming along that takes enough market share away from FB/Twitter/Instagram to be meaningful, and the Dems not legislating it out of existence on sheer principle.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,003

    I see this on Vanilla at the top of this thread so maybe someone pressed the wrong button?

    Page not found – politicalbetting.com

    It looks like nothing was found at this location. Maybe try one of the links below or a search?

    Read the full story here

    Yep, looks like the Vanilla forum got detached from the Wordpress article. Perhaps the latter url was modified after posting?

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,213
    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    Nigelb said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    How can you judge his complexion under all that orange ?
    Fair point. But there must be a reason for the Belisha beacon look. Is it a fashionable colour among elderly Americans? They do seem to have very odd taste.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,248

    Wouldn't the results of the 2022 mid terms have an effect ?

    If the GOP do well then plenty of 'serious' candidates might emerge.

    If the Dems hold the House and Senate then the field might be left to Trump and outsiders.

    The opposite. If GOP do well in 2022 it is validation of Trump. And Trump will be President regardless of true result of 2024 as the office holders involved will blatantly lie and steal the election.

    If GOP do badly, that is when the serious candidates might band together to take on the Trumpist fascists.
    It’s hardly the most sympathetic of maps in the Senate. Only 14 Dems up for re-election while the Republicans face some tricky defences in North Carolina and Pennsylvania (where the incumbents are also retiring) as well as Arizona. Wisconsin is also hardly a certainty although they should hold it.

    They may retake Georgia’s second seat, of course, but even with the voter suppression tactics they’ve been using there that’s no gimme. And I simply cannot see where they’re likely to actually *gain* any others.

    So retaking the House is probably the realistic limit of Republican ambitions in 2022. If they do retake the Senate, they’ve had a truly stunning night.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,874
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    How does Burnham get into the Commons?

    He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

    An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM
    One question is, do Labour go through a May* before that? The other question is whether someone, in more normal post-pandemic times, emerges from the Labour shadow cabinet or beyond (or comes from beyond into the shadow cabinet) who looks like a contender.

    *Some might argue Starmer is a May, but he seems to me more of a Howard (sorts the party out a bit after previous terrible leadership, but doesn't trouble the scorers too much) or possibly, if he gets lucky, a Cameron (competent, does really well on detoxifying the brand, but scrapes to a 'win' mainly due to his opponent becoming massively unpopular due to economic armageddon... and then of course proceeds to shaft the Lib Dems who happily take on the role).
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,213

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    Should be Sterling. Good at football and diving.
    Bravo
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,114

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,003

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    Should be Sterling. Good at football and diving.
    Bravo
    Thanks, if you were serious rather than sarky about Rashford, note he should be at least 33/1 to be nominated, so very unlikely even if he would do well if nominated.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,920

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    Genetics are in his favour. His old man made it to 92 and his mother to 88.

    Anybody who doesn't think he'll run again should read the Wolff book. He will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,003
    edited July 26

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    That’s like giving it to Gareth Southgate. In 1996.

    (Yes, public vote but from a BBC shortlist; no, not massively strong.)
  • eekeek Posts: 15,861

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

    Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,217
    edited July 26

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,874
    edited July 26

    Nigelb said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    How can you judge his complexion under all that orange ?
    Fair point. But there must be a reason for the Belisha beacon look. Is it a fashionable colour among elderly Americans? They do seem to have very odd taste.
    Can we rule out colour blindness? Tritanopia could make him see himself in a natural-ish shade of pink when he looks in the mirror :wink:
    https://davidmathlogic.com/colorblind/##D81B60-#1E88E5-#FFC107-#004D40 (third colour down, first image - incidentally one of several good resources for accessible palettes for 8 colours in graphs etc)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    Rashford won't be nominated, surely?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    Dura_Ace said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    Genetics are in his favour. His old man made it to 92 and his mother to 88.

    Anybody who doesn't think he'll run again should read the Wolff book. He will.
    Neither Fred Trump nor his Scottish wife Mary Anne MacLeod Trump (a Gaelic-speaker) was obese. In fact they both looked very sprightly, right into old age.

    Genetics are of course important, but so is lifestyle and personality. Donald just looks like someone asking for a coronary.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,003
    edited July 26
    eek said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

    Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
    Yep. His best shot is to hope that Starmer is still there at the next election (which is big odds-on, Lab are crap at getting rid of leaders), and that he can find a safe seat to get into (which shouldn’t be too difficult).

    Burnham’s big worry (from the point of view of leadership ambitions) is that the general election is early, and he looks like he’s running away from Manchester soon after they re-elected him.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,398
    Mr. Sandpit, it's like Giggs winning in 2009 when Button won the F1 title.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638
    edited July 26
    It looks as if there will never be a Gen X (born between 1964 and 1979 according to the US Social Security Administration) President. Boomers (plus Biden who is older than the Boomers) will have dominated the Presidency from 1992 to 2028 at this rate whereupon the Millennials will likely take over as the changing of the guard. Kamala Harris maybe - but she’s unlikely to win and on the cusp anyway. I certainly can’t think of a potential contender born in the 70s*

    *Mia Culpa - de Santis was born in ‘78.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    kle4 said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.
    They said that about Maggie.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    It’s this basic. When Burnham appears on TV, I myself - as a baby-eating Tory-voting Brexiteer - think ‘ok I’ll listen to what he has to say, sometimes he has a point, even if it’s dull’

    He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.

    So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something

    As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    kle4 said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.
    They said that about Maggie.
    She would have gone on forever if they’d let her.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    It’s this basic. When Burnham appears on TV, I myself - as a baby-eating Tory-voting Brexiteer - think ‘ok I’ll listen to what he has to say, sometimes he has a point, even if it’s dull’

    He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.

    So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something

    As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should
    I didn’t know that about you - that you vote Tory I mean.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    DougSeal said:

    kle4 said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.
    They said that about Maggie.
    She would have gone on forever if they’d let her.
    Her Maker was a higher power than the 1922 Committee.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,794
    edited July 26

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Agree. On the swimming lobby: Not much power in recent years, most recent was a third place for Rebecca Adlington after two golds at Beijing. Daley himself has also been nominated a couple of times earlier in his career and made no impact. I wonder if he is a weaker favourite than we think.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    DougSeal said:

    kle4 said:

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    He's too stubborn to die or slow down, he'll be with us forever.
    They said that about Maggie.
    She would have gone on forever if they’d let her.
    Her Maker was a higher power than the 1922 Committee.
    That’s what they want you to think.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,456
    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Nice post @Leon . When you look at that as a list of achievements he definitely deserves to win SPOTY.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    Mr. Sandpit, it's like Giggs winning in 2009 when Button won the F1 title.

    The Great British Public showing a fantastic judge of character there again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,003

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,114
    eek said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

    Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
    Which is why I think it doesn't happen until they expect there is going to be a vacancy. Promote Lucy Powell to the Lords and trigger a minimum-notice by-election. Burnham walks it, and on the same day announces both his resignation as Mayor of Greater Lancashire and candidacy as party leader.

    Who will run against him? Lisa Nandy perhaps. Dawn Butler (stop sniggering) probably. He will walk it.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,336
    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    I've had £12.50 on Tom Daley to win SPOTY at 200. He also has a chance of another medal in the individual 10m platform diving event on Saturday 6th August.

    Rashford won't be on the ballot for SPOTY.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Daley also came out as gay during that incredible life story. Not uncourageous

    I’m sure he has many flaws, but he seems profoundly admirable. Gifted, good looking, intelligent. But also troubled, thwarted, and wounded. He could have surely given up after Rio and had a very pleasant life as a TV celeb and national icon

    Yet he knuckled down AGAIN and trained relentlessly for four years and he has now, finally, won Olympic gold at the age of 27.

    And he - with Matty Lee - beat the Chinese. Hah

    He’s a Hollywood movie ready to be made. A genuine hero. And most sporting personae called heros are really not all that
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Agree. On the swimming lobby: Not much power in recent years, most recent was a third place for Rebecca Adlington after two golds at Beijing. Daley himself has also been nominated a couple of times earlier in his career and made no impact. I wonder if he is a weaker favourite than we think.
    Wrong gender for my tastes, but is Daley not considered to be quite a good-looking chap? Do good-looking people not have a tendency to beat plainer folk in popularity contests?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    Just arrived to get my second jab at St Paul’s church in Woking. Decent turnout from the 30 somethings.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,114
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

    Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
    Yep. His best shot is to hope that Starmer is still there at the next election (which is big odds-on, Lab are crap at getting rid of leaders), and that he can find a safe seat to get into (which shouldn’t be too difficult).

    Burnham’s big worry (from the point of view of leadership ambitions) is that the general election is early, and he looks like he’s running away from Manchester soon after they re-elected him.
    Burnham won't run in the GE in 2023. If Starmer goes afterwards they will parachute him into a safe seat if they want him and he wants it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,572

    eek said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

    Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
    Which is why I think it doesn't happen until they expect there is going to be a vacancy. Promote Lucy Powell to the Lords and trigger a minimum-notice by-election. Burnham walks it, and on the same day announces both his resignation as Mayor of Greater Lancashire and candidacy as party leader.

    Who will run against him? Lisa Nandy perhaps. Dawn Butler (stop sniggering) probably. He will walk it.
    Surely the likeliest future is that Burnham follows Boris at standing for a seat at the next election.

    If Starmer loses and resigns then he can stand for the leadership.
    If Starmer wins then he'd probably be in with a shout at a Cabinet position despite not having been in the Shadow Cabinet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    stjohn said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    I've had £12.50 on Tom Daley to win SPOTY at 200. He also has a chance of another medal in the individual 10m platform diving event on Saturday 6th August.

    Rashford won't be on the ballot for SPOTY.
    Fantastic bet. And I thought I’d done well getting £2 @ 50-1.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,041
    edited July 26
    Recommend Wolff's book "Landslide" about the final chaotic unhinged days of Trump's presidency.

    If you think "it can't possibly have been that bad" you'd be right.

    It was worse...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,856

    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lol, BetVictor would only allow me £2 @ 50-1 on Tom Daley for SPoTY.

    Lucky to get that now he's won. What price Matty Lee?
    I wonder if Tom Pidcock counts for the powerful SPotY cycling lobby.
    He’s England’s best one-day road cyclist by a long way; and MTB, obviously. But the problem is the UK is unusually obsessed by stage racing and velodrome events, and he doesn’t feature there at all.
    Because Team GB has been extremely successful in track cycling events since 2008. A certain Chris Hoy started it all off.
    No. Velodrome has been popular in England for over a century. Mainly because road racing was made virtually impossible due to daft local authorities.
    And quite a few before Chris Hoy, too. I'm not well acquainted with the Scots, though.

    Leaving aside the likes of Chris Boardman, you can go back to folks like Reg Harris, who won 4 world titles in the 1940s/50s.

    Did we ever have the Belgian tradition of week-long track races?
    Yes. In fact, accordingly to Wikipedia it is not a Belgian tradition but a British one!

    “ Six-day races started in Britain, spread to many regions of the world, were brought to their modern style in the United States and are now mainly a European event.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-day_racing

    I wonder if the Flemish edition of Wikipedia says the same thing? 😀

    (I also wonder what they say about the origins of fish suppers…)

    No Flemish version sadly but the French version if anything makes the event seem more anglo-centric, not helped by the fact that the French call the madison "la course à l'américaine". Of course when you think about it the Madison (named after the Square Gardens) is about as American name as they come, but the impact isn't the same.
    Islingon 1878.


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,880

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Agree. On the swimming lobby: Not much power in recent years, most recent was a third place for Rebecca Adlington after two golds at Beijing. Daley himself has also been nominated a couple of times earlier in his career and made no impact. I wonder if he is a weaker favourite than we think.
    Wrong gender for my tastes, but is Daley not considered to be quite a good-looking chap? Do good-looking people not have a tendency to beat plainer folk in popularity contests?
    I'm not sure how many votes from teenage girls and grannies SPOTY has.

    On the other hand there might well be a 'gay vote' for Daley.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    It’s this basic. When Burnham appears on TV, I myself - as a baby-eating Tory-voting Brexiteer - think ‘ok I’ll listen to what he has to say, sometimes he has a point, even if it’s dull’

    He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.

    So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something

    As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should
    I didn’t know that about you - that you vote Tory I mean.
    Not always. I’ve also voted Green, Lozza, UKIP, Lib Dem, Mebyon Kernow and Binface, amongst others, and with varying degrees of sincerity

    Just not Labour. Never Labour. UGH

    But I did kind of admire early Blair and I liked his positive, unifying vision of Britain, and I could see Burnham doing similar
  • eekeek Posts: 15,861

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

    Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
    Yep. His best shot is to hope that Starmer is still there at the next election (which is big odds-on, Lab are crap at getting rid of leaders), and that he can find a safe seat to get into (which shouldn’t be too difficult).

    Burnham’s big worry (from the point of view of leadership ambitions) is that the general election is early, and he looks like he’s running away from Manchester soon after they re-elected him.
    Burnham won't run in the GE in 2023. If Starmer goes afterwards they will parachute him into a safe seat if they want him and he wants it.
    The timeframe and the way the Labour party works means he can't be parachuted into a safe seat unless Starmer intentionally stayed to give Burnham the chance to do that.

    So either Burnham picks a safe seat for the 2023 general election or he isn't in the game.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,128
    edited July 26

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.
    Agreed that, if he golds again, and therefore gets the media coverage, he's also in with a chance.
    Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
    If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    stjohn said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    I've had £12.50 on Tom Daley to win SPOTY at 200. He also has a chance of another medal in the individual 10m platform diving event on Saturday 6th August.

    Rashford won't be on the ballot for SPOTY.
    That’s a fantastic bet. Chapeau

    So you could win £2500?

    Genius. When did you place it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,003
    I wonder if, so long as Team GB don’t massively overperform, they give the team award to the England football team - which nicely gets them out of having to nominate one of the team for the individual award.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    Nigelb said:

    So far I've followed a lay everyone except Trump and DeSantis strategy for the nomination.
    Not sure I'd want to put too much on Trump winning it, though.

    Clever clogs. :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,128
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    It’s this basic. When Burnham appears on TV, I myself - as a baby-eating Tory-voting Brexiteer - think ‘ok I’ll listen to what he has to say, sometimes he has a point, even if it’s dull’

    He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.

    So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something

    As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should
    I didn’t know that about you - that you vote Tory I mean.
    Not always. I’ve also voted Green, Lozza, UKIP, Lib Dem, Mebyon Kernow and Binface, amongst others, and with varying degrees of sincerity

    Just not Labour. Never Labour. UGH

    But I did kind of admire early Blair and I liked his positive, unifying vision of Britain, and I could see Burnham doing similar
    I think this is one of your good calls.
    Of course it requires quite a bit of other stuff to happen, and he could easily cock it all up, but Burnham is a real possibility.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,365
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    It’s this basic. When Burnham appears on TV, I myself - as a baby-eating Tory-voting Brexiteer - think ‘ok I’ll listen to what he has to say, sometimes he has a point, even if it’s dull’

    He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.

    So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something

    As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should
    I didn’t know that about you - that you vote Tory I mean.
    Not always. I’ve also voted Green, Lozza, UKIP, Lib Dem, Mebyon Kernow and Binface, amongst others, and with varying degrees of sincerity

    Just not Labour. Never Labour. UGH

    But I did kind of admire early Blair and I liked his positive, unifying vision of Britain, and I could see Burnham doing similar
    I don’t think the history books are going to be describing Tony Blair’s legacy as strengthening the unity of Britain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Nice post @Leon . When you look at that as a list of achievements he definitely deserves to win SPOTY.
    It's a compelling narrative. A young, handsome guy who has struggled through personal difficulties to reach the pinnacle of his sport.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,041
    British understatement:

    Laugh out loud moment with @Tompid there in the @BBCSport post-race interview.

    Interviewer: How long has this been your dream?

    Tom: Not that long really. Late last year? I'm glad I didn't have the stress of four years preparing and thinking about it.

    Amazing.


    https://twitter.com/ruddick/status/1419578809121222657?s=20
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,405

    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    How does Burnham get into the Commons?

    He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that

    An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM
    I can't see how Starmer gets ousted - whatever putsch the loony left thought they were going to pull off is surely dead. So if he goes then he goes on his own terms and you would imagine would have an idea about who succeeds him.

    So get Lucy Powell - who nominated Burnham to step upstairs to the Other Place and hand Burnham her Manchester Central seat and its 29k Labour majority. Burnham is an MP before nominations close. Job done.
    There are two separate issues about Andy Burnham. Can he become and MP and be a candidate for leader. Yes.

    Is he elected PM material? In general all elections have been won for decades now by the party with the more electable leader; this combines relative qualities (May v Jezza where both were almost equally unelectable) and absolute qualities, where stellar (at the time) candidates outshone the alternative (Cameron, Major, Thatcher, Blair, Boris.)

    The question is whether Burnham is likely to be more electable than the Tory alternative. This is a question for both parties. Labour should only put in a new leader when they are sure that a they have someone who is a clear winner. The Tories, who have become slightly better at this, will, I think, certainly do so. They will never risk a T May again.

    If Burnham is the clear number 1 choice then I feel Labour may have a personnel problem. He would beat a weak Tory leader but not an outstanding one. That risks Labour being out of power, assuming SKS leads into a 2023 election until well into the 2030s.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.
    Agreed that, if he golds again, and therefore gets the media coverage, he's also in with a chance.
    Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
    If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.
    Swimmers can get so many medals - at least it seems like it with the Phelps' of the world - you need to get quite a few just to be noticed.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,460

    If he’s still alive. He’ll be 78 and he hasn’t looked well for over a decade.

    In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)

    According to the doctor Contrarian referenced from the Fox interview he reckoned if it wasn't for his diet he would live to 200!

    After the discussion with Contrarian I had a look at the Fox piece on Biden's 'dementia'. Now I have no idea if he has dementia or not, but that piece added nothing to the debate whatsoever and the fact that Contrarian thinks Fox is just 'right leaning' tells you everything you need to know about people who absorb their output.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if, so long as Team GB don’t massively overperform, they give the team award to the England football team - which nicely gets them out of having to nominate one of the team for the individual award.

    Giving the team award to Team GB is stupid. Team of the year should go to an actual team rather than just a collection of individuals and teams competing for us.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    edited July 26

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    FPT:

    Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.

    "Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.

    Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.

    I think that is frankly b****cks. In this country to represent Labour you need to use Local Schools and NHS hospitals I am sure we can all think of the Labour politicians sending their kids to private schools whilst advocating closing private schools to their voters. This is because it is a big issue for Labour.

    And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.

    Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
    Burnham made ONE mistake in 2015. Harperson wanted to abstain on some bill, it was totemic, and Burnham got caught in the headlights. He knew that abstaining at 2nd reading didn't let the bill pass, but didn't get the impact the image of this had on the leadership campaign. I and so many others pulled our support of him.

    What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
    Burnham's other issue is that he can't be mayor of Manchester and also an MP.

    Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
    Yep. His best shot is to hope that Starmer is still there at the next election (which is big odds-on, Lab are crap at getting rid of leaders), and that he can find a safe seat to get into (which shouldn’t be too difficult).

    Burnham’s big worry (from the point of view of leadership ambitions) is that the general election is early, and he looks like he’s running away from Manchester soon after they re-elected him.
    Burnham won't run in the GE in 2023. If Starmer goes afterwards they will parachute him into a safe seat if they want him and he wants it.
    Yep. This must be plan A if available. Otherwise a nightmare scenario beckons of him going back to Westminster and then Lab do well enough in the GE to make Starmer PM. Andy gets Work & Pensions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,128
    I see TSMC are contemplating a new chip foundry in Germany; Intel, also.
    The window for the UK getting back into chip manufacturing in any significant way is closing.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,177
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.
    Agreed that, if he golds again, and therefore gets the media coverage, he's also in with a chance.
    Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
    If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.
    The fact that he has the fastest 16 times ever is simply incredible.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,460
    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    I agree he must be a pretty strong runner, but we don't know what is to come. I would have also put Mark Cavendish up there (for exactly the same sort of reasons), but maybe has has scuppered his chances by not winning in Paris. If he had of done so I think he would have been difficult to beat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if, so long as Team GB don’t massively overperform, they give the team award to the England football team - which nicely gets them out of having to nominate one of the team for the individual award.

    Giving the team award to Team GB is stupid. Team of the year should go to an actual team rather than just a collection of individuals and teams competing for us.
    If you've likely not met let alone know the names of a good chunk of the group, it's not a team
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.
    Agreed that, if he golds again, and therefore gets the media coverage, he's also in with a chance.
    Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
    If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.
    The fact that he has the fastest 16 times ever is simply incredible.
    The man must be a freak, in the good way. Scarily dominant.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    A fair few over 40s getting their second AZ dose today.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,456
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Nice post @Leon . When you look at that as a list of achievements he definitely deserves to win SPOTY.
    It's a compelling narrative. A young, handsome guy who has struggled through personal difficulties to reach the pinnacle of his sport.
    He is also super cute and looks good in a pair of speedos, which doesn't make any difference to his diving, but might help him with a popularity contest like SPOTY!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,041
    Cakeism:

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he supports the deputy speaker for kicking out Dawn Butler but he also supports Dawn Butler for what she said

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419595475485925376?s=20
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,018
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Nice post @Leon . When you look at that as a list of achievements he definitely deserves to win SPOTY.
    It's a compelling narrative. A young, handsome guy who has struggled through personal difficulties to reach the pinnacle of his sport.
    Are you talking about Leon?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,003
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    Don't the public vote on this though. Is the swimming lobby strong? It will probably be Marcus Rashford.
    It may be also split by the fact the GOAT Adam Peaty won. But I think among the wider general public Daley is likely to have a much wider name recognition and an emotional back story.
    Not quite sure how competitive we are in the 2 medley relays but Peaty would be giving the other 3 swimmers 1-1.5 seconds buffer so could end up with at least 2 more medals, possibly gold.
    Agreed that, if he golds again, and therefore gets the media coverage, he's also in with a chance.
    Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
    If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.
    Looked a bit more at the relays and think we should be (fairly close) second favs to US on both men and mixed medleys, with the mixed the better chance. Betting market has us about 3/1 for mens, 9/2 for mixed. Mixed feels like a value bet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,217

    Cakeism:

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he supports the deputy speaker for kicking out Dawn Butler but he also supports Dawn Butler for what she said

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419595475485925376?s=20

    Like against vaccine passports, but also for them...
  • eekeek Posts: 15,861
    Nigelb said:

    I see TSMC are contemplating a new chip foundry in Germany; Intel, also.
    The window for the UK getting back into chip manufacturing in any significant way is closing.

    It went when we left the EU - I suspect even a vague comment on tariffs from the EU would be enough to shift it to Germany (where expertise in manufacturing these chips actually exists).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 35,003
    Odds checker are saying that Daley is now 8/1 for SPoTY.

    I stand by my betting strategy, which is to lay whoever just won something.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,263

    I see this on Vanilla at the top of this thread so maybe someone pressed the wrong button?

    Page not found – politicalbetting.com

    It looks like nothing was found at this location. Maybe try one of the links below or a search?

    Read the full story here

    Best piece I've read in an age.
    :)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,456
    Sandpit said:

    Odds checker are saying that Daley is now 8/1 for SPoTY.

    I stand by my betting strategy, which is to lay whoever just won something.

    He might not agree to that. I think he is married isn't he?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    DougSeal said:

    It looks as if there will never be a Gen X (born between 1964 and 1979 according to the US Social Security Administration) President. Boomers (plus Biden who is older than the Boomers) will have dominated the Presidency from 1992 to 2028 at this rate whereupon the Millennials will likely take over as the changing of the guard. Kamala Harris maybe - but she’s unlikely to win and on the cusp anyway. I certainly can’t think of a potential contender born in the 70s*

    *Mia Culpa - de Santis was born in ‘78.

    This, basically, is the story of GenX. We are a pointless generation, who serve only to pay for the pensions of the Boomers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,744
    Sandpit said:

    Odds checker are saying that Daley is now 8/1 for SPoTY.

    I stand by my betting strategy, which is to lay whoever just won something.

    Dangerous game, I think. Daley has a very good chance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,100
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    For SPOTY bettors, a reminder of Tom Daley’s story


    ‘Tom Daley was:
    14 when he went to his first Olympics.
    15 when he first became world champion.
    17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
    18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
    22 when he won Rio bronze.
    27 when he won #Tokyo2020  gold.’

    https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21

    How can he not win?

    He wins. And bravo

    I agree he must be a pretty strong runner, but we don't know what is to come. I would have also put Mark Cavendish up there (for exactly the same sort of reasons), but maybe has has scuppered his chances by not winning in Paris. If he had of done so I think he would have been difficult to beat.
    Yes, I think Cavendish might have been a major threat - esp with the cycling lobby - but he just lost. It really matters

    Setting aside Daley’s personal tragedy and gay status (tho his bravery in both are estimable) what marks out Daley is the sequence. Bronze, bronze, GOLD. That’s 12 years of relentless Olympic training, finally paying off. Imagine the tedious days of diving, hour after hour, year after year. Finally he gets there. And he could so easily have quit and been rich and leisured.

    That’s quite something
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,572
    mwadams said:

    DougSeal said:

    It looks as if there will never be a Gen X (born between 1964 and 1979 according to the US Social Security Administration) President. Boomers (plus Biden who is older than the Boomers) will have dominated the Presidency from 1992 to 2028 at this rate whereupon the Millennials will likely take over as the changing of the guard. Kamala Harris maybe - but she’s unlikely to win and on the cusp anyway. I certainly can’t think of a potential contender born in the 70s*

    *Mia Culpa - de Santis was born in ‘78.

    This, basically, is the story of GenX. We are a pointless generation, who serve only to pay for the pensions of the Boomers.
    So are we Millenials at this rate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Cakeism:

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he supports the deputy speaker for kicking out Dawn Butler but he also supports Dawn Butler for what she said

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419595475485925376?s=20

    True, but I think its defendable. He agrees with her view, even though he agrees the rules mean the Deputy Speaker had to take that action.

    It's the histrionics about it being outrageous there are rules on parliamentary language that irritate me, the idea it was wrong she be made to leave (and she obviously wanted that outcome or the stunt would have failed).

    I have less of an issue with people saying she was right, even though it meant she was tossed out as a result, than faux outrage about the existence of rules.
This discussion has been closed.