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And if he does he will be the GOP nominee as the Republican membership was shifted towards the more looneyer right over the past 4 years.
So the only reason he won't run is down to actuary risks which I'm not 100% sure about but have to be less than the current odds.
In his favour he’s a teetotaller. In the problem column we can include obesity, sky-high stress levels and an appalling complexion (does he have sleep problems?)
Regarding Andy the King of The North Burnham. Mate of mine yesterday pointed out that the Andy Burnham Gary Neville Jamie Carragher axis of northern based commentators seem to reach all kinds of people that serkeir can only dream of.
"Imagine what happens if Gareth Southgate gets involved..." he said, and yeah, imagine. Other countries have seen sports stars transition into politics and become Governor, Prime Minister and President. Even if GNev doesn't fancy the top job himself, he and his northern mates could do a lot to influence a lot of people away from Boris and the bungocracy towards an alternative.
Lots has been said about Burnham not being available for the leadership. Cobblers, a safe seat can be found quickly enough should it come down to it. Stepping away from Westminster as Jezbollah poisoned the well was a smart move - Burnham not only is seen as a clean skin, he is also delivering as Mayor of Greater Lancashire.
“ Six-day races started in Britain, spread to many regions of the world, were brought to their modern style in the United States and are now mainly a European event.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-day_racing
I wonder if the Flemish edition of Wikipedia says the same thing? 😀
(I also wonder what they say about the origins of fish suppers…)
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If the GOP do well then plenty of 'serious' candidates might emerge.
If the Dems hold the House and Senate then the field might be left to Trump and outsiders.
He is the next Labour leader and probably next Labour PM whenever he manages that
An odd echo of Boris, going from London mayor to Tory PM
Not sure I'd want to put too much on Trump winning it, though.
If GOP do badly, that is when the serious candidates might band together to take on the Trumpist fascists.
And Andy Burnham is a fantastic opposer and local voice but he frankly got mullered by Milliband and Corbyn. Do we really think he has 'it' to convince people he should be the next leader. Next he's not from London which shouldn't matter but seems to help Labour leaders, and finally Labour should be embarrassed they have not had a woman or ethnic minority leader and might want to do something about that.
Apart from that he's got a pretty good chance.
‘Tom Daley was:
14 when he went to his first Olympics.
15 when he first became world champion.
17 when his dad and mentor Rob died from a brain tumour.
18 when he won London 2012 bronze.
22 when he won Rio bronze.
27 when he won #Tokyo2020 gold.’
https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1419570498812485632?s=21
How can he not win?
He wins. And bravo
So get Lucy Powell - who nominated Burnham to step upstairs to the Other Place and hand Burnham her Manchester Central seat and its 29k Labour majority. Burnham is an MP before nominations close. Job done.
They may retake Georgia’s second seat, of course, but even with the voter suppression tactics they’ve been using there that’s no gimme. And I simply cannot see where they’re likely to actually *gain* any others.
So retaking the House is probably the realistic limit of Republican ambitions in 2022. If they do retake the Senate, they’ve had a truly stunning night.
*Some might argue Starmer is a May, but he seems to me more of a Howard (sorts the party out a bit after previous terrible leadership, but doesn't trouble the scorers too much) or possibly, if he gets lucky, a Cameron (competent, does really well on detoxifying the brand, but scrapes to a 'win' mainly due to his opponent becoming massively unpopular due to economic armageddon... and then of course proceeds to shaft the Lib Dems who happily take on the role).
What dropping out of the Commons has allowed him to do is regain his composure and play on the national stage from a smaller platform. The Burnham of today has learned huge amounts vs the Burnham of 2015.
Anybody who doesn't think he'll run again should read the Wolff book. He will.
(Yes, public vote but from a BBC shortlist; no, not massively strong.)
Which means if he wishes to lead the Labour party the only way he can do so is by quitting his current role and that risks immediate irrelevancy if he isn't lucky.
https://davidmathlogic.com/colorblind/##D81B60-#1E88E5-#FFC107-#004D40 (third colour down, first image - incidentally one of several good resources for accessible palettes for 8 colours in graphs etc)
Genetics are of course important, but so is lifestyle and personality. Donald just looks like someone asking for a coronary.
Burnham’s big worry (from the point of view of leadership ambitions) is that the general election is early, and he looks like he’s running away from Manchester soon after they re-elected him.
*Mia Culpa - de Santis was born in ‘78.
He gets a listen. I can’t think of anyone else in Labour who does that. For me. I will happily listen to Corbyn - but it’s because he pleases me by making me laugh at Labour. ‘This guy was your leader HAHAHA’. I can’t listen to Starmer because he would make Shakespeare’s “gentlemen abed in England” speech sound like a presentation by a water filter salesman with a hangover.
So if Burnham can make a cynical right wing drunk like me pay at least passing interest, he has something
As someone else noted, Burnham is a bit like Gary Neville. Same flat northern vowels, same boring Woke nonsense. And yet, I listen. Sensing that I should
Who will run against him? Lisa Nandy perhaps. Dawn Butler (stop sniggering) probably. He will walk it.
Rashford won't be on the ballot for SPOTY.
I’m sure he has many flaws, but he seems profoundly admirable. Gifted, good looking, intelligent. But also troubled, thwarted, and wounded. He could have surely given up after Rio and had a very pleasant life as a TV celeb and national icon
Yet he knuckled down AGAIN and trained relentlessly for four years and he has now, finally, won Olympic gold at the age of 27.
And he - with Matty Lee - beat the Chinese. Hah
He’s a Hollywood movie ready to be made. A genuine hero. And most sporting personae called heros are really not all that
If Starmer loses and resigns then he can stand for the leadership.
If Starmer wins then he'd probably be in with a shout at a Cabinet position despite not having been in the Shadow Cabinet.
If you think "it can't possibly have been that bad" you'd be right.
It was worse...
On the other hand there might well be a 'gay vote' for Daley.
Just not Labour. Never Labour. UGH
But I did kind of admire early Blair and I liked his positive, unifying vision of Britain, and I could see Burnham doing similar
So either Burnham picks a safe seat for the 2023 general election or he isn't in the game.
Unbeaten in his chosen event for seven years, in which he holds the sixteen fastest times ever, he's the first British swimmer ever to successfully defend an Olympic title.
If the relays don't gold, then he'll probably be ignored.
So you could win £2500?
Genius. When did you place it?
Of course it requires quite a bit of other stuff to happen, and he could easily cock it all up, but Burnham is a real possibility.
Laugh out loud moment with @Tompid there in the @BBCSport post-race interview.
Interviewer: How long has this been your dream?
Tom: Not that long really. Late last year? I'm glad I didn't have the stress of four years preparing and thinking about it.
Amazing.
https://twitter.com/ruddick/status/1419578809121222657?s=20
Is he elected PM material? In general all elections have been won for decades now by the party with the more electable leader; this combines relative qualities (May v Jezza where both were almost equally unelectable) and absolute qualities, where stellar (at the time) candidates outshone the alternative (Cameron, Major, Thatcher, Blair, Boris.)
The question is whether Burnham is likely to be more electable than the Tory alternative. This is a question for both parties. Labour should only put in a new leader when they are sure that a they have someone who is a clear winner. The Tories, who have become slightly better at this, will, I think, certainly do so. They will never risk a T May again.
If Burnham is the clear number 1 choice then I feel Labour may have a personnel problem. He would beat a weak Tory leader but not an outstanding one. That risks Labour being out of power, assuming SKS leads into a 2023 election until well into the 2030s.
After the discussion with Contrarian I had a look at the Fox piece on Biden's 'dementia'. Now I have no idea if he has dementia or not, but that piece added nothing to the debate whatsoever and the fact that Contrarian thinks Fox is just 'right leaning' tells you everything you need to know about people who absorb their output.
The window for the UK getting back into chip manufacturing in any significant way is closing.
NEW: Keir Starmer says he supports the deputy speaker for kicking out Dawn Butler but he also supports Dawn Butler for what she said
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419595475485925376?s=20
I stand by my betting strategy, which is to lay whoever just won something.
Setting aside Daley’s personal tragedy and gay status (tho his bravery in both are estimable) what marks out Daley is the sequence. Bronze, bronze, GOLD. That’s 12 years of relentless Olympic training, finally paying off. Imagine the tedious days of diving, hour after hour, year after year. Finally he gets there. And he could so easily have quit and been rich and leisured.
That’s quite something
It's the histrionics about it being outrageous there are rules on parliamentary language that irritate me, the idea it was wrong she be made to leave (and she obviously wanted that outcome or the stunt would have failed).
I have less of an issue with people saying she was right, even though it meant she was tossed out as a result, than faux outrage about the existence of rules.