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Olympic over/unders – The USA might be overrated – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 23 in General
imageOlympic over/unders – The USA might be overrated – politicalbetting.com

The greatest show in sport has had its opening ceremony and some events have already begun. While this is a political betting site many of us retain an interest in the Olympic betting markets, perhaps simply because they used to be lumped in with politics in the ‘Specials’ section of bookies’ websites.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,194
    first
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,417
    second
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,437
    Bronze.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,437
    edited July 23
    Tough to get excited about this I'm afraid.
    We didn't really know it would happen. It is in a poor time zone for us. We don't have as good a team as previously (although stratospheric by 1996 standards). And many events may well be devalued by who does or doesn't have Covid. Moreover, we have scorching weather and the chance to go places and do all the things in the UK at least.
    All in all it may not catch fire here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    edited July 23
    dixiedean said:

    Tough to get excited about this I'm afraid.
    We didn't really know it would happen. It is in a poor time zone for us. We don't have as good a team as previously (although stratospheric by 1996 standards). And many events may well be devalued by who does or doesn't have Covid. Moreover, we have scorching weather and the chance to go places and do all the things in the UK at least.
    All in all it may not catch fire here.

    I don't think I have been as unexcited about it for a long time....and if you can't tell I am a sport nut.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,437

    dixiedean said:

    Tough to get excited about this I'm afraid.
    We didn't really know it would happen. It is in a poor time zone for us. We don't have as good a team as previously (although stratospheric by 1996 standards). And many events may well be devalued by who does or doesn't have Covid. Moreover, we have scorching weather and the chance to go places and do all the things in the UK at least.
    All in all it may not catch fire here.

    I don't think I have been as unexcited about it for a long time....and if you can't tell I am a sport nut.
    I had spotted that, thanks :)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,716
    Really the problem for the Olympics is that most countries over here have just been allowed out and about again, it seems. If people really were locked down like most of the last 18 months, people might have nothing else to do.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    Three weeks of running and jumping will be even boring than the football.

    Fortunately, there is plenty of real news this summer.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,612
    I'd like to see covid19 included in this market, each infected athlete is equivalent to one gold medal.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Now that is a significant poll.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    Russia (aka ROC) might be worth a look in most medals (not most Golds) without USA or second in medals table, based on the Gracenote predictions @Quincel's header links to on the BBC site. Note that it predicts lots of silvers for Russia and Britain, and not many for China. Gracenote has Russia/ROC a tight second whereas the books have them priced to come fifth at around 10/1 or better.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 24
    OT I hate working the PB night shift because I can't see properly (double vision) when tired so have to type with my left eye closed. Hope that's not a sign of Covid.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    BREAKING: U.S. reports nearly 68,000 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    edited July 24

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Now that is a significant poll.
    I'm assuming it'll be a pretty good poll for the LDs because Labour aren't amazingly high but the Tories are pretty low. If anyone has access to the Times article they might be able to fill us in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    U.S. COVID update: Nearly 68,000 new cases, biggest one-day increase since April

    - New cases: 67,908
    - Average: 48,767 (+3,780)
    - In hospital: 32,419 (+1,350)
    - In ICU: 8,129 (+260)
    - New deaths: 487
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    Damned if I can find the Ladbrokes market referred to in the header. And now Corals seem to have redesigned their site in line with Ladbrokes (both owned by Entain of course). Not that I'm too fussed but just wanted to rant about their site layout.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 24

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    edited July 24

    Damned if I can find the Ladbrokes market referred to in the header. And now Corals seem to have redesigned their site in line with Ladbrokes (both owned by Entain of course). Not that I'm too fussed but just wanted to rant about their site layout.

    I can't find it either. Their site is really awkward to navigate around. Every time I clicked on "Olympics" it took me to football matches.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005
    Dutch rower Finn Florijn, who was due to take part in the men's single sculls repechage race, has tested positive for coronavirus,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,005

    Dutch rower Finn Florijn, who was due to take part in the men's single sculls repechage race, has tested positive for coronavirus,

    I'm not particularly into the Olympics, but I do feel sorry for people who may have trained all their lives for this, only to have it moved by a year, and then to get Covid and miss it. Even if they're not jabbed.
    Apparently one of the cyclists from a developing country was even worse, he desperately tried to get jabbed for months, and inbetween tried to stay away from everybody. Tested positive a couple of weeks before the games, next day got offer for his vaccination.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,282

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Now that is a significant poll.
    Agreed. Con -6 is statistically significant.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 24
    Andy_JS said:

    Damned if I can find the Ladbrokes market referred to in the header. And now Corals seem to have redesigned their site in line with Ladbrokes (both owned by Entain of course). Not that I'm too fussed but just wanted to rant about their site layout.

    I can't find it either. Their site is really awkward to navigate around. Every time I clicked on "Olympics" it took me to football matches.
    It is possible they took the market down overnight rather than pay overtime for a trader to watch the Olympics live in order to update prices as medals are won.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,813
    edited July 24

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Now that is a significant poll.
    Agreed. Con -6 is statistically significant.
    It is, especially if confirmed by other polls this weekend.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,282
    How’s that Oven Ready Deal going Boris?

    ‘Brexit: More than 2,000 medicines face withdrawal over Protocol’

    More than 2,000 medicines are set to be withdrawn from Northern Ireland due to the NI Protocol, a pharmaceutical trade association has warned.

    The Protocol means Northern Ireland is still in the EU's pharmaceutical regulatory system unlike Great Britain.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57941657.amp
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,691
    So that poll change. Is that driven by people angry at Boris for not unlocking completely or for unlocking at all?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,282
    tlg86 said:

    So that poll change. Is that driven by people angry at Boris for not unlocking completely or for unlocking at all?

    I’m sure that question is torturing a lot of Con strategists as we speak. That’s the problem when you attempt to rule by populism instead of principle: what do you do when no option is popular?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 24

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    The "busted flush" Dominic Cummings interview would have been shown just before this poll was taken.

    ETA so that gives as possible explanations for the Conservatives' poll decline:-
    Freedom Day underwhelming
    Boris's off/on self-isolation after being pinged
    Dominic Cummings
    Empty shelves

    What we need now is a Times reader to give us more details.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,795

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    The wheels are coming off the Johnson regime. Peak Boris was May 25th, the day before Dominic Cummings started launching Exocets. Since then a stack of events have slewed against Johnson.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,279
    edited July 24

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    The "busted flush" Dominic Cummings interview would have been shown just before this poll was taken.

    ETA so that gives as possible explanations for the Conservatives' poll decline:-
    Freedom Day underwhelming
    Boris's off/on self-isolation after being pinged
    Dominic Cummings
    Empty shelves

    What we need now is a Times reader to give us more details.
    Good Morning

    I think all of those are relevant to Boris poll decline

    I have little doubt the next few weeks/months will define his future

    The case rate decline seems promising but it is too early to be certain and of course post 16th August, if not before, all restrictions on the double vaccinated will be removed

    Interesting times but there is life after Boris and maybe his mps might start thinking the same
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
    It is quite possibly transient or even a sampling error but will give Conservative backbenchers, already becoming restive, something to ponder over the Commons summer recess.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,526
    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
    Or it might be a typical case of midterm blues, and we might see a year or two of labour leading in the polls.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,526
    tlg86 said:

    So that poll change. Is that driven by people angry at Boris for not unlocking completely or for unlocking at all?

    Yes.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Anyone know what has gone wrong with electoralcalculus.co.uk?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,795
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
    Or it might be a typical case of midterm blues, and we might see a year or two of labour leading in the polls.
    He’s still in place because the MPs see him as a winner. At what point into those mid term blues do they get an itchy trigger finger?

    This said, I am pretty bullish about the prospects for the end of the covid era in the West (excluding the southern / eastern countries of the “West”). That’s probably enough to get the incumbent over the line.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 24
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
    Or it might be a typical case of midterm blues, and we might see a year or two of labour leading in the polls.
    He’s still in place because the MPs see him as a winner. At what point into those mid term blues do they get an itchy trigger finger?

    This said, I am pretty bullish about the prospects for the end of the covid era in the West (excluding the southern / eastern countries of the “West”). That’s probably enough to get the incumbent over the line.

    My guess is Boris will jump before he is pushed. It is reported that Boris is a very keen poll-watcher. His USP is never having lost an election and there is no upside to his brand or ego in endangering that record.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    edited July 24

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
    Or it might be a typical case of midterm blues, and we might see a year or two of labour leading in the polls.
    He’s still in place because the MPs see him as a winner. At what point into those mid term blues do they get an itchy trigger finger?

    This said, I am pretty bullish about the prospects for the end of the covid era in the West (excluding the southern / eastern countries of the “West”). That’s probably enough to get the incumbent over the line.

    My guess is Boris will jump before he is pushed. It is reported that Boris is a very keen poll-watcher. His USP is never having lost an election and there is no upside to his brand or ego in endangering that record.
    Tony Blair was similar in that regard although a lot more self-assured than Boris Johnson. Blair exited left (fast) before he could be beaten in the polls.

    Carrie is the unknown factor. She's highly ambitious and I can't imagine her wanting to vacate Downing Street in a hurry.

    I don't think these polls mean Johnson is going to lose in 2023/4. The newspapers who are now putting in the boot will probably do their usual volte-face and rally behind him.

    However, and it's a big however, next time around Labour will have a leader who IS electable. Whatever you may think of him, Keir Starmer is not toxic in the way that Corbyn was.

    I am beginning to think that Batley & Spen was like that moment when Sir Alex Ferguson was one defeat away from getting sacked by Man Utd.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    Worth noting that this week’s Survation also showed a big drop for the Tories and their lead at four points - 39/35.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Fieldwork 20-21/7 and Freedom Day was the 19th. Are voters underwhelmed?
    Of course, it might be a transient reaction to Boris trying to exempt himself from ping-induced self-isolation.
    Might be transient. Or it might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
    Or it might be a typical case of midterm blues, and we might see a year or two of labour leading in the polls.
    He’s still in place because the MPs see him as a winner. At what point into those mid term blues do they get an itchy trigger finger?

    This said, I am pretty bullish about the prospects for the end of the covid era in the West (excluding the southern / eastern countries of the “West”). That’s probably enough to get the incumbent over the line.

    My guess is Boris will jump before he is pushed. It is reported that Boris is a very keen poll-watcher. His USP is never having lost an election and there is no upside to his brand or ego in endangering that record.
    Tony Blair was similar in that regard although a lot more self-assured than Boris Johnson. Blair exited left (fast) before he could be beaten in the polls.

    Carrie is the unknown factor. She's highly ambitious and I can't imagine her wanting to vacate Downing Street in a hurry.

    I don't think these polls mean Johnson is going to lose in 2023/4. The newspapers who are now putting in the boot will probably do their usual volte-face and rally behind him.

    However, and it's a big however, next time around Labour will have a leader who IS electable. Whatever you may think of him, Keir Starmer is not toxic in the way that Corbyn was.

    I am beginning to think that Batley & Spen was like that moment when Sir Alex Ferguson was one defeat away from getting sacked by Man Utd.
    Keir Starmer is not toxic *yet* but I expect the CCHQ under-the-radar social media teams will be ready to go to war against Starmer at the next election just as they did against Corbyn in 2019. We saw hints of attack lines being trialled early on, with Starmer as DPP being blamed for not prosecuting child groomers and rapists, and any other crimes that are particularly abhorrent. Whether he did or not is rather beside the point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Now that is a significant poll.
    I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.

    I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    More from the YouGov - 48% say Johnson has been a poor or terrible PM, 25% say average, 20% say he has been good or great. Among 2019 Tory voters it’s 23/32/42. Overall 17% say Johnson has been better than they expected, 21% say worse, 20% say as goid as they expected and 31% say as bad as they expected.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    Worth noting that this week’s Survation also showed a big drop for the Tories and their lead at four points - 39/35.

    Yep.

    I don't see how anyone can still claim there hasn't been a shift. The evidence is now fairly incontrovertible.

    I doubt very very much whether this will be transient. In my opinion the lustre has finally come off Boris' 2019 Brexit election victory and vaccine bounce. A slew of problems have emerged, for which Johnson is manifestly ill-suited. We're firmly into mid-term blues and then some, with issues the like of which this country hasn't faced since the second world war.

    Keir Starmer may not ignite passions but he's not toxic and he IS competent.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    And please at this point can Robert not try to tell us (from America) that Brexit is behind us?

    It clearly isn't. After a relatively quiet opening few months, the problems are growing.

    I think Brexit may yet prove the real ticking bomb.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,920
    Labour, Greens and LibDems all being up hints at possible tactical voting come the GE. That said, we’ve seen sharp poll moves like this before and then a gradual slide back to big Tory leads. They need to be above 40% to feel confident of staying in power.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    I don't underestimate the sense of deflation felt when Italy beat England in the Euros. Boris didn't bring home the win. We went back to the same old, same old. We're increasingly isolated in a world that isn't open to global travel or even trade. Policy making is utterly chaotic with u-turns on a daily basis and ministers openly briefing their own ideas on the hoof. From pingdemic to Hancock, from empty shelves to open corruption at the heart of government no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014
    The Olympics will be completely overshadowed by the worldwide surge of the Delta Variant
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,526
    Humour...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014
    There are horrible videos coming out of Thailand. Some, allegedly, show people collapsing in the street from Covid, and later dying. Just like the original scary videos from Wuhan
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Now that is a significant poll.
    I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.

    I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
    It's very bad news for a country when the political system finds itself in hock to the oldies (see Italy and Japan).
    Just to record that as one of this sites oldies, I've Liked that. Apart from shifting some of my wine spending to English (although I've been advised recently about some Welsh that I want to investigate) there's not a lot I can do for the country.
    In contrast to my children and grandchildren, who are working and paying taxes.

    Not as warm and sunny this morning, 16.4. Quite pleasant though.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    It could be an outlier. We need more evidence. People talking about Boris jumping ship are deluded.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    More from the YouGov - 48% say Johnson has been a poor or terrible PM, 25% say average, 20% say he has been good or great. Among 2019 Tory voters it’s 23/32/42. Overall 17% say Johnson has been better than they expected, 21% say worse, 20% say as goid as they expected and 31% say as bad as they expected.

    Whilst that's true it doesn't necessarily mean very much unless we compare it to other PMs.

    Do we have that data?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    I don't underestimate the sense of deflation felt when Italy beat England in the Euros. Boris didn't bring home the win. We went back to the same old, same old. We're increasingly isolated in a world that isn't open to global travel or even trade. Policy making is utterly chaotic with u-turns on a daily basis and ministers openly briefing their own ideas on the hoof. From pingdemic to Hancock, from empty shelves to open corruption at the heart of government no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.

    You wanted Boris to take those penalities?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Worth noting that this week’s Survation also showed a big drop for the Tories and their lead at four points - 39/35.

    Yep.

    I don't see how anyone can still claim there hasn't been a shift. The evidence is now fairly incontrovertible.

    I doubt very very much whether this will be transient. In my opinion the lustre has finally come off Boris' 2019 Brexit election victory and vaccine bounce. A slew of problems have emerged, for which Johnson is manifestly ill-suited. We're firmly into mid-term blues and then some, with issues the like of which this country hasn't faced since the second world war.

    Keir Starmer may not ignite passions but he's not toxic and he IS competent.
    Unfortunately, though, he's leader of the Labour Party, which carries more baggage than the airside conveyor belts at Heathrow airport.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,476

    no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.

    The fanbois will be along shortly to dispute that...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014
    If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane


    ⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵

    ‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    Leon said:

    There are horrible videos coming out of Thailand. Some, allegedly, show people collapsing in the street from Covid, and later dying. Just like the original scary videos from Wuhan

    Don't over-dramatise. One video. One man. According to my Thai newsfeed.
    And my family don't seem particularly alarmed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014

    Leon said:

    There are horrible videos coming out of Thailand. Some, allegedly, show people collapsing in the street from Covid, and later dying. Just like the original scary videos from Wuhan

    Don't over-dramatise. One video. One man. According to my Thai newsfeed.
    And my family don't seem particularly alarmed.
    No, several
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    Well, that is a crap appointment then!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179
    edited July 24

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,939
    edited July 24

    More from the YouGov - 48% say Johnson has been a poor or terrible PM, 25% say average, 20% say he has been good or great. Among 2019 Tory voters it’s 23/32/42. Overall 17% say Johnson has been better than they expected, 21% say worse, 20% say as goid as they expected and 31% say as bad as they expected.

    A very significant poll. I re-listened to Dominic Cummings last night and ignoring the detail (which was as disgraceful for him as it was for Johnson) the sense was that they'd been found out. This was an epitaph. Boris Johnson was 'Chance the Gardener' and how could we have ever thought otherwise.

    It's not common for the zeitgeist to change overnight. 1997 was the most clear and recent example but this feels as though we're teetering on another. Like we need to press the refresh button.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    ydoethur said:

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
    From the brief reports I've read, seems as though, at least when he was young, he took notice of what people thought about him. After being expelled he realised what a disappointment he was to his family, pulled himself together and studied.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179

    ydoethur said:

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
    From the brief reports I've read, seems as though, at least when he was young, he took notice of what people thought about him. After being expelled he realised what a disappointment he was to his family, pulled himself together and studied.
    Which is why I’m far more concerned that he’s been a pretty second rate exec since then and appears to have been appointed, like Spielman, Dick or Harding, because he knows the right people.

    Anyone can do stupid things as a teenager and many of them do. Being serially incompetent and still promoted upwards is far more worrying.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,551
    ydoethur said:

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
    Teaching seems to have a problem not dissimilar to medicine in the UK, a crisis of retention. I think that is more of an issue than structural organisation and inspection*. We lose far too many to burnout when they should have decades of career ahead of them. It doesn't seem to be as big an issue in other countries. I wonder why? It doesn't seem to be about pay primarily.

    *indeed that obsession with structural organisation and inspection may well be the problem!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
    From the brief reports I've read, seems as though, at least when he was young, he took notice of what people thought about him. After being expelled he realised what a disappointment he was to his family, pulled himself together and studied.
    Which is why I’m far more concerned that he’s been a pretty second rate exec since then and appears to have been appointed, like Spielman, Dick or Harding, because he knows the right people.

    Anyone can do stupid things as a teenager and many of them do. Being serially incompetent and still promoted upwards is far more worrying.
    Quite. However, serial incompetence has never been a bar to promotion in public life.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,910


    Don't over-dramatise.

    Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.

    On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,939

    Andy_JS said:

    "@BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 34% (+3)

    via @YouGov
    , 20 - 21 Jul
    Chgs. w/ 16 Jul"

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1418716582520532996

    Now that is a significant poll.
    I can certainly understand this as I've had a visceral (and surprisingly pro Labour) attitude to mollycoddling pensioners and increasing taxes on working people, again, over the last week.

    I will be writing to be MP about it. The Conservative Party has to be for everyone, not just the retired.
    Could that be that as a Tory you tend to see things that are in your own interests and you are not a pensioner? I'm more impressed by lefty/Labour pensioners who take the same view
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,500
    Leon said:

    If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane


    ⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵

    ‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21

    This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.

    And ignore Dr Eric
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,195
    edited July 24
    Dura_Ace said:


    Don't over-dramatise.

    Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.

    On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
    Well, I wouldn't know about that side of Thai life! But, given the current state of tourism in Pattaya, I would have thought he could have had the pick of the crop!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
    Teaching seems to have a problem not dissimilar to medicine in the UK, a crisis of retention. I think that is more of an issue than structural organisation and inspection*. We lose far too many to burnout when they should have decades of career ahead of them. It doesn't seem to be as big an issue in other countries. I wonder why? It doesn't seem to be about pay primarily.

    *indeed that obsession with structural organisation and inspection may well be the problem!
    Don’t know what it’s like in medicine, but a big problem in education is we’re constantly being given instructions by people who simply don’t understand what they’re talking about and therefore are, in effect, completely unworkable. But somehow, we have to try and make them work. Then, when we have either failed to make them work or modified them so they bear a passing resemblance to sanity, we get savage criticism and threats from the morons who gave impossible instructions in the first place for not doing what we were told.

    I have to say LEAs were just as bad at that as academy chains and the DfE, but with OFSTED and now Estyn regressing back to the Woodhead* style, it’s getting worse not better.

    And that certainly isn’t helping with retention.

    *Woodhead spent seven years as a teacher and was sacked from two of his three posts, both times for his dismal performance. On one occasion his colleagues, on being told an IRA bomb scare had been sparked by a girl who hadn’t done her homework for him, assumed a cover up was going on because they had never seen him set work of any sort.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    From the discussion with @bigben last night:

    I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

    In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

    (For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,720
    edited July 24

    I don't underestimate the sense of deflation felt when Italy beat England in the Euros. Boris didn't bring home the win. We went back to the same old, same old. We're increasingly isolated in a world that isn't open to global travel or even trade. Policy making is utterly chaotic with u-turns on a daily basis and ministers openly briefing their own ideas on the hoof. From pingdemic to Hancock, from empty shelves to open corruption at the heart of government no one can look on Boris Johnson with the same rosy-tinted specs they once had.

    You wanted Boris to take those penalities?
    Labour unexpectedly lost the 1970 general election after England was knocked out of the World Cup, beaten by a bug in Gordon Banks' tummy which ruled out the world's best goalkeeper from the quarter-final against West Germany, which we lost 3-2. No-one expected Harold Wilson to have played in goal. No-one is suggesting Boris should have taken any penalties.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014
    Dura_Ace said:


    Don't over-dramatise.

    Reflect on to whom you are addressing your comments.

    On of my old shipmates was on FB from Pattaya yesterday. He was playing golf and rattling a bar girl that looked like Steptoe's horse without a care in the world.
    Well then he’s an idiot

    Four photos of Thais collapsed in the street

    https://twitter.com/xavikota/status/1418556267291766787?s=21

    Meanwhile

    ‘Bangkok closes public spaces as COVID-19 surges in Thailand’

    https://twitter.com/avrilbellon/status/1418680017173852165?s=21
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,500
    Roger said:

    More from the YouGov - 48% say Johnson has been a poor or terrible PM, 25% say average, 20% say he has been good or great. Among 2019 Tory voters it’s 23/32/42. Overall 17% say Johnson has been better than they expected, 21% say worse, 20% say as goid as they expected and 31% say as bad as they expected.

    A very significant poll. I re-listened to Dominic Cummings last night and ignoring the detail (which was as disgraceful for him as it was for Johnson) the sense was that they'd been found out. This was an epitaph. Boris Johnson was 'Chance the Gardener' and how could we have ever thought otherwise.

    It's not common for the zeitgeist to change overnight. 1997 was the most clear and recent example but this feels as though we're teetering on another. Like we need to press the refresh button.
    I do think people are beginning to clock into Johnson - he doesn’t seem to have any sort of vision or plan, constantly backtracks or lies (yes, Dawn Butler was actually right), and expects to get away with it.

    Hopefully, we’re about to see something shift..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,939

    Leon said:

    If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane


    ⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵

    ‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21

    This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.

    And ignore Dr Eric
    But what a great name.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534

    Roger said:

    More from the YouGov - 48% say Johnson has been a poor or terrible PM, 25% say average, 20% say he has been good or great. Among 2019 Tory voters it’s 23/32/42. Overall 17% say Johnson has been better than they expected, 21% say worse, 20% say as goid as they expected and 31% say as bad as they expected.

    A very significant poll. I re-listened to Dominic Cummings last night and ignoring the detail (which was as disgraceful for him as it was for Johnson) the sense was that they'd been found out. This was an epitaph. Boris Johnson was 'Chance the Gardener' and how could we have ever thought otherwise.

    It's not common for the zeitgeist to change overnight. 1997 was the most clear and recent example but this feels as though we're teetering on another. Like we need to press the refresh button.
    I do think people are beginning to clock into Johnson - he doesn’t seem to have any sort of vision or plan, constantly backtracks or lies (yes, Dawn Butler was actually right), and expects to get away with it.

    Hopefully, we’re about to see something shift..
    "zeitgeist to change overnight. 1997 was the most clear and recent example"

    Not in 1997 it didn't. Not overnight. The Opposition had been tearing a broken and morally bankrupt administration to pieces since Black Wednesday.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    I am off for the day.leaving the I hate Boris and he's been found out and it's the end of the Tories brigade to agree with themselves. Have fun.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014

    Leon said:

    If this is true we are all fucked and poll movements in the UK are like noise complaints during a hurricane


    ⚠️ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel 🇮🇱 Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too—🧵

    ‘2) Gets worse, 🇮🇱 report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.’

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1418669720874721283?s=21

    This guy is a grade A idiot who has constantly misrepresented stats - I’d wait to see what further comes of it.

    And ignore Dr Eric
    Yes yes

    These disturbing stats are being questioned even in Israel, this is why my comment began with IF THIS IS TRUE

    However other experts are taking this very seriously

    This guy is from MIT

    ‘Increasing lines of evidence from Israel suggest a massive drop in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine to prevent *transmission* of Delta. Recent numbers suggest ~60% compared to ~90% against previous VoC.’

    So extra transmissibility of Delta x (1-population blended effectiveness) =
    1.8 * (1 - 0.42) =
    1.02
    😮!

    The bottom line is that according this crude analysis that the gains by the vaccines for transmission reduction were eroded by viral evolution.
    Hello March 2020.’

    https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1417500153070686220?s=21
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,766
    edited July 24
    Boris screwed up Freedom day. In an unseemly rush to please his back benches and ConHome ultras, he lost touch with the public. Not fatal knowing him.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,939
    ydoethur said:

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
    Well at least he knows his shit
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,939

    I am off for the day.leaving the I hate Boris and he's been found out and it's the end of the Tories brigade to agree with themselves. Have fun.

    I hope you don't have to travel too far. I'd aim for Hartlepool
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791

    Damned if I can find the Ladbrokes market referred to in the header. And now Corals seem to have redesigned their site in line with Ladbrokes (both owned by Entain of course). Not that I'm too fussed but just wanted to rant about their site layout.

    Dammit, it does appear they've pulled it. I thought asking Mike to publish this the morning of Day 1 was smart but it is already out of date.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,179
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Teachers of PB, look away now.

    Boy expelled for giving teachers laxative cakes becomes chief schools inspector

    Owen Evans 'chocolate-related incident' saw him expelled from school at age 16 - now aged 52 he has become the new chief inspector for education and training in Wales

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boy-expelled-giving-teachers-laxative-24605471

    I’m more concerned that this is yet another non-teacher with a long track record of underwhelming performance in a series of managerial roles being appointed to lead an education body.

    I mean, why? Do these idiots like Drakeford actually think you don’t need specialist knowledge to monitor so complex a subject as education?

    If they were in any doubt, the total car crash that has been Spielman’s tenure of OFSTED should have warned them off.
    Well at least he knows his shit
    The issue is he doesn’t seem to know he’s shit.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835

    From the discussion with @bigben last night:

    I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

    In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

    (For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

    The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
    Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
    “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

    Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014
    edited July 24

    From the discussion with @bigben last night:

    I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

    In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

    (For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

    The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
    Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
    “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

    Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
    What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

    Another Israeli thread:


    ‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
    I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

    ‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

    https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 187
    One of my friends has just had to cancel her plans with me for today because a trainee has been taking regular tests and tested positive while asymptomatic after a team dinner and then emailing everyone to let them know "just to be safe". Obviously this is what the government says you're meant to do, but as you can imagine this person is not particularly popular right now given the impact on a load of vaccinated people who now have their next two weeks ruined and the complete lack of symptoms.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534
    Scott_xP said:
    R4 covering the total utter clusterf*ck that is the latest non isolating for some key workers. It is a complex adminsitrative mess that Kafka would have balked from putting in a novel.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534
    edited July 24
    Leon said:

    From the discussion with @bigben last night:

    I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

    In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

    (For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

    The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
    Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
    “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

    Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
    What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

    Another Israeli thread:


    ‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
    I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

    ‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

    https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21
    There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?


    And there is this:

    Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 @sailorrooscout
    ·
    Jul 22
    Real-world data out of Canada shows overall vaccine effectiveness (both doses) against symptomatic infection:

    •AstraZeneca: 88%
    •Moderna: 92%
    •Pfizer: 90%

    Overall against Variants of Concern:
    •Alpha (B.1.1.7): 91%
    •Delta (B.1.617.2): 85%
    •Gamma (P.1): 89%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,534
    Also on Israel:

    Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 @sailorrooscout
    ·
    19h
    For all of those asking why this data is different than that from Israel: Davidovitch stressed that all figures should be treated as preliminary and with limited relevance given the relatively small numbers of positive patients at the moment. “It’s quite early to comment, as the
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Roger said:

    I am off for the day.leaving the I hate Boris and he's been found out and it's the end of the Tories brigade to agree with themselves. Have fun.

    I hope you don't have to travel too far. I'd aim for Hartlepool
    No Roger, I am off to clean and prepare our church for Sundays Evensong
    We are celebrating the fact the we can now sing in church.

    A bientot
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014

    Leon said:

    From the discussion with @bigben last night:

    I’d be interested to see if he believes that the (very low) risks of the virus on 20-somethings are higher or lower than the (extremely low) risks of the vaccine on them.

    In terms of both deaths and of injury to hospital level.

    (For reference, it looks like unvaxed 25 year old males are looking at c. 0.01-0.03% mortality and 1-2% hospitalisation. As most vax risks tend to be quoted per million due to how rare they are, that’s 100-300 per million mortality and 10,000-20,000 hospitalised. Of course, these figures could be wrong, but I’d be intrigued to see hospitalisations in the tens of thousands per million, or deaths in the hundreds per million quote for any vaccine)

    The above does ignore long-term side-effects from the virus.
    Long Covid is often shrouded in uncertain stats - as quite a few symptoms are experienced without having been infected at all. It is, though, real (and more than “just” post-viral syndrome).
    “More or Less” estimated a genuine 7-17% incidence of ongoing symptoms and between 2-5% (depending on age - 2% for those in their twenties and 5% in their fifties) of day-to-day life being impaired by ongoing effects of covid.

    Considerably lower than the 30% occasionally quoted, but still high enough to be (in my mind, anyway) a little alarming.
    What do you think of the perturbing news out of Israel?

    Another Israeli thread:


    ‘With 16-59 it's 4 times more likely that a person vaccinated in January will test positive than that inoculated in May. Same caveats apply.
    I should emphasize that these are all infections from the last 3 weeks. This analysis is NOT sufficient to argue that the reason

    ‘For breakthrough infections is waning immunity with time. Its not a study but an internal document. Yet most Israeli officials dealing with the growing outbreak here are convinced that waning immunity of the vaccinated is at least part of the reason for what we are seeing.’

    https://twitter.com/nadav_eyal/status/1417923456491003910?s=21
    There was a debate on the Israeli date on PB an evening or two ago. Seems there are doubts amongst vaccine experts as to whether this data is flawed in some way or not. As several posters pointed out, if Pfizer was so poor then we would have known about it here in UK by now surely?
    Were we widely Pfizering as early as January? Wasn’t it mainly AZ back then?

    Some Israeli authorities are disputing this depressing data, but there are now several lines of supportive evidence

    Who knows. But I know this:

    1. We should be vaxing under-18s
    2. The govt needs to be much more aggressive mandating jabs: hunt down the unvaxed
    3. Get ready for booster shots real soon
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    I think we'll be boostering every 6-12 months for the next few years now. Possibly longer. Doesn't bother me.

    This will be a game of two steps forward and one step back, but we will still keep moving forward net.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,014
    Apparently 15% of athletes at the Olympics are unvaccinated. I find that quite astonishingly stupid.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,148
    Looks like crap weather is returning from today… suspect that will drive a resumption of a rise in cases, assuming the test infrastructure can handle it
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,148

    I think we'll be boostering every 6-12 months for the next few years now. Possibly longer. Doesn't bother me.

    This will be a game of two steps forward and one step back, but we will still keep moving forward net.

    Yes, we do yearly flu jabs and no one bats an eyelid
This discussion has been closed.