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The developing empty shelves narrative could really damage Johnson and his government – politicalbet

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  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539

    Yes.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=CAN~FRA~DEU~JPN~GBR~USA

    It will be interesting to see where tthe comparative stats per age group end up. My guess is that Germany will have a non-trivial problem with anti-vax, through probably less than France.
    If the vaccines are shown to be increasingly less effective than billed then anti-vax is going to become a popular position.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Tory MP threatens to boycott the party conference if Covid vaccination passports are required

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1418191383400230912?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    Yes well now we are coming up against died with covid versus died of covid right?

    I mean, if you are stopping people from hugging dying relatives, racking up untold billions in debt and letting thousands of cancers go undiagnosed, it better not be for nothing, right?

    Covid has to be serious, it absolutely has to be, for you and every vaxxer out there, If it isn't you have been the victim of the most gigantic con-job in history and are the greatest booby going.

    And for someone as self regarding as you, that would be impossible to countenance.

    And in one sense, that's what vax passports are. A validation of your choices. A snack for an obedient puppy.
    Another barely coherent, abusive and dishonest rant. Notable for not addressing a single point I had raised, which I note have undermined every attempt at an actual argument you had made which is why you seem to keep shifting the goalposts.

    Are you actually just trolling us, pretending to be an anti-vaxxer so they all look completely insane and mentally deficient?

    Because if you genuinely believe what you’re posting, you need help, and I mean that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Not according to the Doctor (I forgot her name) who approved Oxford / AZ. And Germany have passed us with vaccinations.

    Passing was never the issue, nor how many in a day etc. It was how quickly everyone was able to rollout jabs during/ahead of fresh waves. Israel stalled out but that's secondary to how vital it was they got most people they could done early on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    Yes.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=CAN~FRA~DEU~JPN~GBR~USA

    It will be interesting to see where tthe comparative stats per age group end up. My guess is that Germany will have a non-trivial problem with anti-vax, through probably less than France.
    It's interesting that Italy may end up with the highest vaccination rate among the major EU countries. I'd have thought they would be at the lower end. Knowing a lot of Italians they all seemed pretty sceptical about vaccines in January.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539
    MaxPB said:

    He's become incoherent trying to defend a ridiculous point he made earlier. We all do it, better to just admit the earlier error and move on rather than keep digging.
    1. I have already admitted the error
    2. You wound me up the wrong way at the wrong moment
    3. Better that I snarl on here and then laugh about it with an apology (sorry) than other things I could do
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Floater said:

    Local Iceland fully stocked just now btw :smiley:

    See, high vaccination rates do make a difference.
  • HYUFD said:
    Don't know why they publish these 4 weeks after the fieldwork
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Will the % of adults who have been vaccinated shoot up today?

    No, I dot mean will lots of extra people get the jab, I mean will the % vaccinated change on the government COVID dashboard vaccination page?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

    According to the header at the top of that page, from today they will use mid 2020 population estimates insted of mid 2019 population estimates, for calculating the %

    The numbers at the moment:

    46,388,744 first doses which equates to 88.1% of all over 18s implying a population of 52,654,647 people over the age of 18 in the UK.

    Now some have speculated with good reason, that many EU nationals who where formally living and working in the UK at the start of the pandemic, have left since then, partly as their jobs disappeared in the pandemic, partly because they wanted to be near there family's at a time of stress, and partly because of BREXIT. this may be overstated, but there are probably more who have left than arrived, we don't know haw many but will find out soon.

    If its 2 million, which is probably far to high, but I'll do the calculation:

    Then Population of 50,654,647 and 46,388,744 first jabs equates to 91.6% vaccinated adults.

    if its 1,111,599 people than:

    Then population of 51,543,049 and 46,388,744 first jabs equates to 90.00% vaccinated adults.

    Even if its just half a million people then that will push us to 90% ish

    Could be a lot less then half a million,

    Anybody what to speculation as to what the new population estimate will be?

    I'm going to guess just under a million, (based on absolutely nothing)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    rcs1000 said:

    There's is slowing down, but only really in Eastern Germany. Western Germany - Bremen, the Saarland, etc., is in the mid-80s as percentage of adults with at least one jab, and will probaby reach the same levels as the UK.

    While in the East - Saxony, Thuringia, etc. - they're only in the high 50s of adults with at least one jab.

    One thing they have done that I believe will be shown to be absolutely correct: they've been mixing and matching products. Merkel, for example, had Astra-Zeneca followed by Moderna, and I think the mix-and-match strategy is going to result in meaningfully stronger immune responses.

    As an aside: I think Germany will still make it to 82-83% of adults at a country-wide level. Simply, the East is only about 20% of the population, so even if they get stuck at 65% of adults, it doesn't pull overall numbers down that much.
    It’s not just the east, and their first doses are now below the levels ours were a month ago.

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Well that's shit news. The longer this goes on, the less secure vaccination looks to being the "Covid is over, back to normal" solution that people keep insisting it is.

    If, as suggested above, we can't clear 70% vaccination AND it stops being effective that quickly, then we are in trouble. Far fewer will get the booster, which means we absolutely will have "your papers please" Vax passports rammed down our throats.

    Bugger.
    Except that is ignoring T-cells. Immunity to a number of diseases does not require antibodies at high levels in your blood stream - it relies on your body responding to infection by making antibodies...
  • Vanilla forums remain terrible. Having to sign up for a new ID because the old one won't let me post :s
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Floater said:

    I see the use of the phrase "the yellow peril" is enough to start a swooning frenzy now

    Apparently it is an "extremely offensive racist term"

    It might be but it's been used toward and even by LDs for some time and it's not so obviously offensive as to render its use in another context as so unreasonable.

    I feel like the only people who would object are those who pretend purdah was inappropriate so we had to move to pre election period.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,255
    MaxPB said:

    He's become incoherent trying to defend a ridiculous point he made earlier. We all do it, better to just admit the earlier error and move on rather than keep digging.

    Taking the ridiculous point to the extreme if a country vaccinated its entire population tomorrow that would be best as they'd have the highest numbers, that the entire population had been unprotected for getting on for 8 months and had incurred many avoidable infections and deaths would be irrelevant to this measure.

    It's just daft, a moments thought is all it takes to see why.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    HYUFD said:
    Larger Tory lead.....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700
    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP threatens to boycott the party conference if Covid vaccination passports are required

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1418191383400230912?s=20

    Very brave of him. If he resigned the whip that might be a bit more noticeable. What a plonker!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,708
    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP threatens to boycott the party conference if Covid vaccination passports are required

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1418191383400230912?s=20

    They shouldn't worry. Boris 'exemption' Johnson will make sure there is an exception made for tory members.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    MattW said:

    We can do better than that.

    PB sans TSE is like Tequila without the worm.
    PB without TSE is like Python's parrot. Dead. Cos he edits it!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If the vaccines are shown to be increasingly less effective than billed then anti-vax is going to become a popular position.
    Please don't go down the antivaxx rabbit hole next.

    As far as I know there's absolutely no evidence that people are losing T-cell immunity etc they get from vaccinations yet.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Labour on 34%, time for an SKS is great thread
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    All 219 House Democrats have had the vaccine but only 97 of 211 Republicans

    https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1418204877130551300?s=20

    Given that vax passports will not be applicable at the House of Commons (apparently), are we entitled to ask how many MPs (if any) are not double vaxxed?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    It’s not just the east, and their first doses are now below the levels ours were a month ago.

    image
    Good to see the old British zone is leading the pack. Our influence runs deep :smiley:
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    It’s not just the east, and their first doses are now below the levels ours were a month ago.

    image
    Is that % of population, rather than % of adults?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Unfortunately there has been too much poor information about this. Yes obesity is a risk factor, especially of having a poor outcome. Yes being older is a factor too. But there is also a hidden randomness to this, a bad luck old chap, you were the thin 40 year old who had a severe response and died, AND WE DON'T KNOW WHY. You must believe you are indstructible. Bad news old chap - you're not. There's a simple thing you can do to give yourself better odds - get the vaccine, and then a few weeks later get the 2nd shot. That's it. Its not 'experimental' - its had the same testing regime as any other healthcare product and a damn sight more than alcohol, tobacco etc.
    I got chastised for using the e- word and do not use it any more, ever.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,354

    Well that's shit news. The longer this goes on, the less secure vaccination looks to being the "Covid is over, back to normal" solution that people keep insisting it is.

    If, as suggested above, we can't clear 70% vaccination AND it stops being effective that quickly, then we are in trouble. Far fewer will get the booster, which means we absolutely will have "your papers please" Vax passports rammed down our throats.

    Bugger.
    And again:
    Altogether - repeat after me:
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    etc
    This is the problem with non-experts writing about science, notably in the media. The reinfection rate so far is miniscule, hence prior infection confers lengthy protection, and so will vaccination.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,538

    I like to think it's an early sign that if you dismiss the concerns of those who invest time and money into a sport over years and years then you'll always struggle. I think the ECB just assumed throwing money, lights and gizmos at cricket would give them a guaranteed success. Let's be honest they're piggybacking off the revolutionary idea that was T20.
    At least the privileged youths at Rugby school who decided to do away with the handball rule in football and create a completely different sport had the common decency to form their own association. The problem with the 100 is that it is a completely different sport eating its way into cricket like a tapeworm.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700

    Well that's shit news. The longer this goes on, the less secure vaccination looks to being the "Covid is over, back to normal" solution that people keep insisting it is.

    If, as suggested above, we can't clear 70% vaccination AND it stops being effective that quickly, then we are in trouble. Far fewer will get the booster, which means we absolutely will have "your papers please" Vax passports rammed down our throats.

    Bugger.
    Don't panic Mr Mainwaring(s). Please read whole article:

    "While antibody levels are important for protection, the immune system has other defences that are built up after infection or vaccination. It is normal for antibody levels to wane over time and for the immune system to “remember” the infection with memory B cells. Should the virus invade, these cells rapidly churn out antibodies targeted at the virus. Further protection comes from T cells, which destroy infected cells and limit the severity of disease.

    “Antibodies are not the perfect measure of risk; we don’t know if there’s a magic number, as it were, where the risk of infection or hospitalisation becomes important,” said Aldridge. “But we think these data support the JCVI case for boosters, with priority for the clinically vulnerable, the over-70s, and all people living in residential care homes for older adults.” "
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    On the subject of vaccines, here's the World in Data figures on percentage of population:



    We can - justly - be very proud of the British vaccination programme, while I think also admitting that the gap between us and our European neighbours has narrowed somewhat.

    The figures I'm slightly surprised by in here are for France: because on the EU's own figures, it is only slightly behind Germany/Italy/Spain for proportion of adults. *Plus*, of course, France is vaccinating 12-17 year olds. Of course, there are more kids in France than in most other EU countries, but not that many more.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539

    Please don't go down the antivaxx rabbit hole next.

    As far as I know there's absolutely no evidence that people are losing T-cell immunity etc they get from vaccinations yet.
    I'm not. I've had both doses. I'll get any boosters they wave at me. My point is that if - as suggested above - our vaccination programme is pretty much done because we aren't going to persuade more people to get it, think how low the rates for the booster will be.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    edited July 2021
    Top ten UK islands I’ve visited, in order

    St Kilda
    Foula
    St Agnes (Scillies)
    Harris
    Brownsea
    Skye (despite the crowds)
    Eilean Sionnach
    Lindisfarne
    Eel Pie
    Lewis (just for Callanish)

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I'm not. I've had both doses. I'll get any boosters they wave at me. My point is that if - as suggested above - our vaccination programme is pretty much done because we aren't going to persuade more people to get it, think how low the rates for the booster will be.
    Approximately 90% of adults have gone for their vaccine.

    I see little reason there'll be low rates for the booster.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of vaccines, here's the World in Data figures on percentage of population:



    We can - justly - be very proud of the British vaccination programme, while I think also admitting that the gap between us and our European neighbours has narrowed somewhat.

    The figures I'm slightly surprised by in here are for France: because on the EU's own figures, it is only slightly behind Germany/Italy/Spain for proportion of adults. *Plus*, of course, France is vaccinating 12-17 year olds. Of course, there are more kids in France than in most other EU countries, but not that many more.

    All of Europe should have good programs and most do appear so. That they were slower off the mark was very relevant and worthy of critique, but it's less of an issue now with most of the vulnerable covered, even if some of them are still some weeks behind.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MaxPB said:

    Germany - 83m people
    UK - 68m people

    Are you drunk?
    Nlope it's par for the course for him and his ilk. Yet they moan about the PM telling porkies.....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700

    And again:
    Altogether - repeat after me:
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    "The immune system does not consist solely of antibodies"
    etc
    This is the problem with non-experts writing about science, notably in the media. The reinfection rate so far is miniscule, hence prior infection confers lengthy protection, and so will vaccination.
    They do love a scare story though!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700
    Leon said:

    Top ten UK islands I’ve visited, in order

    St Kilda
    Foula
    St Agnes (Scillies)
    Harris
    Brownsea
    Skye (despite the crowds)
    Eilean Sionnach
    Lindisfarne
    Eel Pie
    Lewis (just for Callanish)

    Ely?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Netherlands-watch - third wave continues to die away as quickly as it arrived: 6233 positives today, as against 10976 this time last week.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    Sco/Wal/NI positives/deaths (positives / deaths 1 week ago):

    Sco: 1825 / 22 (2096 / 19)
    Wal: 712 / 4 (861 / 0)
    NI: 1430 / 0 (1083 / 0)

    Continuing drop in Scotland, though smaller drop than it has been. Drops in Wales now enough to look like a trend. All those drops wiped out by the increase in NI though.

    Deaths in Scotland and Wales quite a lot. If Scotland's figures are per capita'd up we'd be looking at 250+ deaths for the UK. Should be noted Scottish deaths were also disproportionately large last Thursday.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    ..
    We can - justly - be very proud of the British vaccination programme, while I think also admitting that the gap between us and our European neighbours has narrowed somewhat.
    [snip]

    Unfortunately we've thrown away the advantage we had. Boris didn't do anything to stop Delta getting widely seeded when it was obvious he should, he screwed up the re-opening that would have been possible if we'd concentrated on the protection given to the (double-) jabbed, we've been slow to get the youngsters jabbed, and because of the mixed messaging and confusion we've now got one of the highest infection rates in Europe, thus triggering the pingdemic and negating all the advantages of being early in the vaccination programme.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771

    lolz no we don't - thats our total population. Perhaps I am drunk as suggested...
    There are another 12 million SeanT's we haven't met yet...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771

    Well that's shit news. The longer this goes on, the less secure vaccination looks to being the "Covid is over, back to normal" solution that people keep insisting it is.

    If, as suggested above, we can't clear 70% vaccination AND it stops being effective that quickly, then we are in trouble. Far fewer will get the booster, which means we absolutely will have "your papers please" Vax passports rammed down our throats.

    Bugger.
    Do we have comparable studies, and is that an outlier?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    RobD said:

    You do know they have a larger population, right?
    Do they have more cars , what is your point given the question was WHO had administered the most Jabs. 87 is bigger than 82 , even a Tory fibber could not justify that other than by squirrel tactics.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    1. I have already admitted the error
    2. You wound me up the wrong way at the wrong moment
    3. Better that I snarl on here and then laugh about it with an apology (sorry) than other things I could do
    Max "Every post is filled with bollox" PB has a cheek chastising anyone , he makes up more merde than a herd of cows.
This discussion has been closed.