How the PM’s leader ratings are moving – politicalbetting.com

MikeSmithson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IanB2 said:

Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

Erm no, because
1. The box needs to be destroyed now
2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.

This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

CarlottaVance said:

M&S warns of higher prices and less choice in Northern Ireland - BBC News

https://twitter.com/BBCRichardM/status/1417714468004536322?s=20

What was the EU's objection to the "Trusted Trader" scheme? It's not like M&S Sandwiches are difficult to identify....

The scheme wasn't designed to be a mass waiver so that all products from all suppliers get included. Which is what would have to happen for it to be the solution being touted.

If you are a supplier big enough with customer demand large enough to supply products by the full vehicle this is easy. Sadly few are - it is the mixed loads that are the problem, and almost all of the loads for supermarket goods are mixed.

By mixed I mean hundreds or thousands of different products. Each needing its own ream of paperwork at our government's insistence. If we were happy to accept the status quo - that our standards are their standards because we wrote their standards - then we could make all of this go away.

The whole point about Trusted Traders is it should be all products, from all suppliers.

The Trusted Trader should be self-declaring and paying what duties are due, just as we self-declare and pay all sorts of other taxes. If they are found to be committing fraud, they get a hefty fine and lose Trusted Trader status.

The EU doesn't work like that.

Which is the nature of the beast of making a compromise.

If you're only sticking to the rules that pre-existed that are how you normally work, then there is no compromise.

It takes two to tango and the EU are very much in the Ian Paisley school of No dancing and continually saying No, No, No.

Remember Boris agreed to this deal and the EU (are rightly in their eyes) ensuring we stick to our side of the deal.

The fact it doesn't work is also not their problem, as @RochdalePioneers has pointed out near direct transport routes from France to Ireland has sorted out the biggest issues so what is left is mainly an issue within Northern Ireland.

squareroot2 said:

MikeSmithson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IanB2 said:

Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

Erm no, because
1. The box needs to be destroyed now
2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.

This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal

Look.no further.. just blame Boris.

eek said:

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Spectator hasn't learned Johnson's lesson about taking on Rashford:

https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1417560450393329666?s=20

The spectator are preaching to their audience, I would be surprised if anyone else even mentions it.

MaxPB said:

MattW said:

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

Morning everyone. I wonder what fresh hell today will bring?

The crucial Wednesday Covid numbers.

Either "peak" delight confirmed or the depth of despair of ever increasing cases.

That delight will be pretty short lived. The true summer peak of cases will be double today's numbers. As I've said many times, there's no alternative options but I don't think there's any mileage in ignoring the current conditions that will lead to huge numbers in the next three to five weeks. All we can hope for is that the threat of vaccine passports has made 2m under 30s get their vaccines.

@MaxPB

What is your current information on vaccine supplies?

Is there a summary, anywhere - especially about Pfizer? I do not have a current view.

The new Pfizer order has started deliveries, there's no supply issues.

Philip_Thompson said:

Interesting that Labour's Lisa Nandy on Sky is having a go at Dominic Cummings for his "misogyny" in his attacking Carrie Johnson, and not using Cummings interview to have a go at the Tories. The only criticism she had for Boris Johnson was how on earth he allowed Cummings anywhere near power.

Interesting. Doesn't look like Cummings is winning any friends even on a "my enemies enemy is my friend" basis.

MattW said:

eek said:

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Spectator hasn't learned Johnson's lesson about taking on Rashford:

https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1417560450393329666?s=20

The spectator are preaching to their audience, I would be surprised if anyone else even mentions it.

It's interesting that some Luvvies and some Lefties are going for a pre-demonisation narrative an assumption that the "shit rag" (copyright Nick Kumar) "terrified" (Toby Earle) Spectator are 'going for' Rashford. Quite startling tweets here:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2021/07/21/marcus-rashford-versus-spectator/

I wonder what the Spectator have? Any sense and it will be straight reporting.

On a previous occasion Rashford went for an MP after not checking the context of a tweet, and most media swallowed it.

*Awaits outcome with interest*

RochdalePioneers said:

Anyway, having read up on the overnight refugees thread, it is simply the case that some posters and a chunk of voters don't care where these forrin go or whether they live or die as long as they are Somebody Else's Problem.

They're all sponging forrin, here to take all the jobs AND take benefits, so lets just send them somewhere else forrin. Anywhere else. Doesn't matter as they're never going to come here. And think about what a brilliant country we would have if the only people here and breeding were those who could show they were pure bred Anglo-Saxon - no migrant stock there at all...

Surely the solution is to build a wall in the channel? These boats won't be able to cross the channel if there's a ruddy great wall in it.

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

MattW said:

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

Morning everyone. I wonder what fresh hell today will bring?

The crucial Wednesday Covid numbers.

Either "peak" delight confirmed or the depth of despair of ever increasing cases.

That delight will be pretty short lived. The true summer peak of cases will be double today's numbers. As I've said many times, there's no alternative options but I don't think there's any mileage in ignoring the current conditions that will lead to huge numbers in the next three to five weeks. All we can hope for is that the threat of vaccine passports has made 2m under 30s get their vaccines.

@MaxPB

What is your current information on vaccine supplies?

Is there a summary, anywhere - especially about Pfizer? I do not have a current view.

The new Pfizer order has started deliveries, there's no supply issues.

Do we have any idea as to what the booster shots plan will be ?

Its already over six months since some were fully vaccinated.

I wondered if they would use the same vaccines as before or would try different ones to what people previously had for potentially extra protection.

If so then they might want at least one of Novavax, Valneva or Modified AZ available.

MattW said:

MaxPB said:

MattW said:

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:

Gallowgate said:

Morning everyone. I wonder what fresh hell today will bring?

The crucial Wednesday Covid numbers.

Either "peak" delight confirmed or the depth of despair of ever increasing cases.

That delight will be pretty short lived. The true summer peak of cases will be double today's numbers. As I've said many times, there's no alternative options but I don't think there's any mileage in ignoring the current conditions that will lead to huge numbers in the next three to five weeks. All we can hope for is that the threat of vaccine passports has made 2m under 30s get their vaccines.

@MaxPB

What is your current information on vaccine supplies?

Is there a summary, anywhere - especially about Pfizer? I do not have a current view.

The new Pfizer order has started deliveries, there's no supply issues.

Thanks. Has that been confirmed publicly with a cite? I'm dealing with someone who says it is not expected until September.

MaxPB said:

Wow, £6bn increase in the debt interest bill compared to last year. Completely offsets the savings in the furlough scheme winding down. Without that additional interest bill the PSF figures actually don't look so bad. All of the numbers heading in the right direction at least, other than debt interest.

It looks as though we're on course for an annual deficit of around £130bn, maybe less if there's no autumn/winter disruption.

NickPalmer said:

MikeSmithson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IanB2 said:

Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

Erm no, because
1. The box needs to be destroyed now
2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.

This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal

It's an interesting example of the limitations of Johnson's habit of deciding stuff on a wing and sorting out any problems later. That can work quite well in electoral with non-technical stuff. If they declare nightclubs open without restriction, then say nah, on reflection they need vaxports, everyone will be irritated and some people will die before they get round to sorting it, but in a few months everyone will have moved on, and if they're ruthless enough not to care about unnecessary deaths, the electoral consequences will be negligible.

But Northern Ireland is a technical problem, and you can't talk it away, any more than you can repair a machine by thetorical flourishes. There are only 3 choices that actually work:

1. Decide NI isn't part of the Customs Union after all. Problem: border trade collapses.
2. Decide NI isn't part of the UK for trading purposes. Problem: UK-NI trade collapses
3. Decide to accept continuation of common standards. Problem: we surrender the right to fall behind EU standards in the future.

Fudges - trusted traders, informal deals, delays, etc. simply won't work durably. There's a fundamental choice, and Johnson de facto chose 2 plus fudge.

I think the outcome may be 3 with the theoretical option to change in future which will in practice not be used.

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Closer with Survation tonight

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 11%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border

Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/

Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM

Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections

BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

Here is the url you so revealingly published:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

SNP gains from SCon:
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

SNP gains from SLD:
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours

I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.

It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair

I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.

If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

The voters of southern England will be ecstatic when their new “English Nationalist” (sic) government imposes the concrete silos with 260 nuclear warheads. HS2 will look like a walk in the park.

rottenborough said:

Telegraph utterly unimpressed with Cummings.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/20/analysis-dominic-cummings-started-resemble-crazed-cult-leader/

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Closer with Survation tonight

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 11%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border

Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/

Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM

Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections

BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

Here is the url you so revealingly published:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

SNP gains from SCon:
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

SNP gains from SLD:
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours

I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.

It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 3 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair

Nah, wouldn’t happen. He’d pass a bill moving from FPTP to a more proportionate system in the hope of retaining power,and he’d dissolve parliament.

He couldn't pass it without SNP support and even if he managed to before they left the Commons even under PR we would likely see a repeat of the 2015 result and a Tory and UKIP/Farage combined majority on votes (the Tories and UKIP got 54% of the vote combined in England in 2015 and add in the DUP too) to screw the SNP and end all spending to Scotland as soon as possible as English voters turned English Nationalist.

There would then also be a hard border and customs posts from Berwick to Carlisle

What do you mean “as English voters turned English Nationalist”? They already have: it’s called Brexit.

MattW said:

StuartDickson said:

Norway fined for not wearing bikini bottoms at European beach handball competition

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/20/norway-fined-for-not-wearing-bikini-bottoms-at-european-beach-handball-competition

Not quite accurate, I hope . They did wear something else instead?

The current BBC obsession with sportswomen's lower clothing is a revealing reflection on the Olympics and culture, judging by the amount of headlines on the front page over the last week.

A few years ago it was all about the Olympics being a good pickup ground for body-type fetishists.

JosiasJessop said:

eek said:

MattW said:

eek said:

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Spectator hasn't learned Johnson's lesson about taking on Rashford:

https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1417560450393329666?s=20

The spectator are preaching to their audience, I would be surprised if anyone else even mentions it.

It's interesting that some Luvvies and some Lefties are going for a pre-demonisation narrative an assumption that the "shit rag" (copyright Nick Kumar) "terrified" (Toby Earle) Spectator are 'going for' Rashford. Quite startling tweets here:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2021/07/21/marcus-rashford-versus-spectator/

I wonder what the Spectator have? Any sense and it will be straight reporting.

On a previous occasion Rashford went for an MP after not checking the context of a tweet, and most media swallowed it.

*Awaits outcome with interest*

It's worth looking at the first tweet

Just heard
@spectator
are planning to run a story on me tomorrow about how I have benefitted commercially in the last 18 months…

So the claim will be that Marcus has made money from the companies who have signed up to support the work he's doing - and I suspect the issue is that "most, but not all the money" has been going to the good causes.

Which probably isn't surprising as I suspect Marcus now has a few people managing / operating things that need to be done... But you can see ways in which the Spectator can make that look very bad.

Leaving aside the Rashford story for the moment, one of my pet hates are 'charities' who have massive overheads, and only give a few pennies in the pound to good causes. Some overheads are valid and unavoidable, but I do think some charities - especially large ones - don't try to be quite as efficient as they could.

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

CarlottaVance said:

M&S warns of higher prices and less choice in Northern Ireland - BBC News

https://twitter.com/BBCRichardM/status/1417714468004536322?s=20

What was the EU's objection to the "Trusted Trader" scheme? It's not like M&S Sandwiches are difficult to identify....

The scheme wasn't designed to be a mass waiver so that all products from all suppliers get included. Which is what would have to happen for it to be the solution being touted.

If you are a supplier big enough with customer demand large enough to supply products by the full vehicle this is easy. Sadly few are - it is the mixed loads that are the problem, and almost all of the loads for supermarket goods are mixed.

By mixed I mean hundreds or thousands of different products. Each needing its own ream of paperwork at our government's insistence. If we were happy to accept the status quo - that our standards are their standards because we wrote their standards - then we could make all of this go away.

The whole point about Trusted Traders is it should be all products, from all suppliers.

The Trusted Trader should be self-declaring and paying what duties are due, just as we self-declare and pay all sorts of other taxes. If they are found to be committing fraud, they get a hefty fine and lose Trusted Trader status.

The EU doesn't work like that.

Which is the nature of the beast of making a compromise.

If you're only sticking to the rules that pre-existed that are how you normally work, then there is no compromise.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Closer with Survation tonight

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 11%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border

Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/

Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM

Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections

BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

Here is the url you so revealingly published:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

SNP gains from SCon:
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

SNP gains from SLD:
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours

I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.

It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair

I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.

If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

I’m an english voter and I wouldn’t

eek said:

Taz said:

I didn’t watch the Cummings interview. I was watching some old episodes of Space1999 instead - love the first bloc - is it worth getting on catch up. Does it add to what we already knew ?

Given that you read the comments on PB - I somehow doubt it.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

MattW said:

StuartDickson said:

Norway fined for not wearing bikini bottoms at European beach handball competition

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/20/norway-fined-for-not-wearing-bikini-bottoms-at-european-beach-handball-competition

Not quite accurate, I hope . They did wear something else instead?

The current BBC obsession with sportswomen's lower clothing is a revealing reflection on the Olympics and culture, judging by the amount of headlines on the front page over the last week.

A few years ago it was all about the Olympics being a good pickup ground for body-type fetishists.

Handball isn't in the Olympics, but clearly, similar issues are. Gymnasts had an argument about it no?

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

CarlottaVance said:

M&S warns of higher prices and less choice in Northern Ireland - BBC News

https://twitter.com/BBCRichardM/status/1417714468004536322?s=20

What was the EU's objection to the "Trusted Trader" scheme? It's not like M&S Sandwiches are difficult to identify....

The scheme wasn't designed to be a mass waiver so that all products from all suppliers get included. Which is what would have to happen for it to be the solution being touted.

If you are a supplier big enough with customer demand large enough to supply products by the full vehicle this is easy. Sadly few are - it is the mixed loads that are the problem, and almost all of the loads for supermarket goods are mixed.

By mixed I mean hundreds or thousands of different products. Each needing its own ream of paperwork at our government's insistence. If we were happy to accept the status quo - that our standards are their standards because we wrote their standards - then we could make all of this go away.

The whole point about Trusted Traders is it should be all products, from all suppliers.

The Trusted Trader should be self-declaring and paying what duties are due, just as we self-declare and pay all sorts of other taxes. If they are found to be committing fraud, they get a hefty fine and lose Trusted Trader status.

Should trusted travelers be self declaring too?

Alistair said:

With the Covid heat map how spreading Norf of the River will Bojo Hold his nervo.

It's only Tower Hamlets and Hackney so far but Islington is heating up rapidly too.

Taz said:

Charles said:

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Closer with Survation tonight

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 11%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border

Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/

Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM

Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections

BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

Here is the url you so revealingly published:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

SNP gains from SCon:
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

SNP gains from SLD:
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours

I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.

It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 3 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair

Nah, wouldn’t happen. He’d pass a bill moving from FPTP to a more proportionate system in the hope of retaining power,and he’d dissolve parliament.

And it would be appropriate for Scottish MPs to vote on that?

Not really but you cannot stop them.

Gallowgate said:

squareroot2 said:

MikeSmithson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IanB2 said:

Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

Erm no, because
1. The box needs to be destroyed now
2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.

This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal

Look.no further.. just blame Boris.

Well the nature of leadership is that you’re responsible for success and failure

tlg86 said:

eek said:

MattW said:

eek said:

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Spectator hasn't learned Johnson's lesson about taking on Rashford:

https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1417560450393329666?s=20

The spectator are preaching to their audience, I would be surprised if anyone else even mentions it.

It's interesting that some Luvvies and some Lefties are going for a pre-demonisation narrative an assumption that the "shit rag" (copyright Nick Kumar) "terrified" (Toby Earle) Spectator are 'going for' Rashford. Quite startling tweets here:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2021/07/21/marcus-rashford-versus-spectator/

I wonder what the Spectator have? Any sense and it will be straight reporting.

On a previous occasion Rashford went for an MP after not checking the context of a tweet, and most media swallowed it.

*Awaits outcome with interest*

It's worth looking at the first tweet

Just heard
@spectator
are planning to run a story on me tomorrow about how I have benefitted commercially in the last 18 months…

So the claim will be that Marcus has made money from the companies who have signed up to support the work he's doing - and I suspect the issue is that "most, but not all the money" has been going to the good causes.

Which probably isn't surprising as I suspect Marcus now has a few people managing / operating his campaigns and they need to be paid... But you can see ways in which the Spectator can make that look very bad.

As ever, the devil will be in the detail. If Marcus isn't happy with what's written, I'd advise him to take the Spectator to court.

Charles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

CarlottaVance said:

M&S warns of higher prices and less choice in Northern Ireland - BBC News

https://twitter.com/BBCRichardM/status/1417714468004536322?s=20

What was the EU's objection to the "Trusted Trader" scheme? It's not like M&S Sandwiches are difficult to identify....

The scheme wasn't designed to be a mass waiver so that all products from all suppliers get included. Which is what would have to happen for it to be the solution being touted.

If you are a supplier big enough with customer demand large enough to supply products by the full vehicle this is easy. Sadly few are - it is the mixed loads that are the problem, and almost all of the loads for supermarket goods are mixed.

By mixed I mean hundreds or thousands of different products. Each needing its own ream of paperwork at our government's insistence. If we were happy to accept the status quo - that our standards are their standards because we wrote their standards - then we could make all of this go away.

The whole point about Trusted Traders is it should be all products, from all suppliers.

The Trusted Trader should be self-declaring and paying what duties are due, just as we self-declare and pay all sorts of other taxes. If they are found to be committing fraud, they get a hefty fine and lose Trusted Trader status.

The EU doesn't work like that.

Which is the nature of the beast of making a compromise.

If you're only sticking to the rules that pre-existed that are how you normally work, then there is no compromise.

Although it does highlight the fundamental difference in mindset between the English/Napoleonic legal systems

Leon said:

The images of 450 migrants simply beaching in Kent, in one single day, and then scattering are absolutely appalling for the Tories

TAKE BACK CONTROL?!

If they don't get a grip on this the government is fucked

Charles said:

Taz said:

Charles said:

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Closer with Survation tonight

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 11%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border

Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/

Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM

Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections

BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

Here is the url you so revealingly published:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

SNP gains from SCon:
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

SNP gains from SLD:
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours

I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.

It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 3 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair

Nah, wouldn’t happen. He’d pass a bill moving from FPTP to a more proportionate system in the hope of retaining power,and he’d dissolve parliament.

And it would be appropriate for Scottish MPs to vote on that?

Not really but you cannot stop them.

True. I can’t. I suspect the Speaker might have something to say about it.

eek said:

MattW said:

eek said:

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Spectator hasn't learned Johnson's lesson about taking on Rashford:

https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1417560450393329666?s=20

The spectator are preaching to their audience, I would be surprised if anyone else even mentions it.

It's interesting that some Luvvies and some Lefties are going for a pre-demonisation narrative an assumption that the "shit rag" (copyright Nick Kumar) "terrified" (Toby Earle) Spectator are 'going for' Rashford. Quite startling tweets here:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2021/07/21/marcus-rashford-versus-spectator/

I wonder what the Spectator have? Any sense and it will be straight reporting.

On a previous occasion Rashford went for an MP after not checking the context of a tweet, and most media swallowed it.

*Awaits outcome with interest*

It's worth looking at the first tweet

Just heard
@spectator
are planning to run a story on me tomorrow about how I have benefitted commercially in the last 18 months…

So the claim will be that Marcus has made money from the companies who have signed up to support the work he's doing - and I suspect the issue is that "most, but not all the money" has been going to the good causes.

Which probably isn't surprising as I suspect Marcus now has a few people managing / operating his campaigns and they need to be paid... But you can see ways in which the Spectator can make that look very bad.

FF43 said:

IanB2 said:

Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

Don't know what Archie Norman's point is. Brexit is his party's policy. Deal with it.

And as chaiman of M&S it is up to people in his company to manage the rules as they are and/or lobby for possible change - eg a Swiss style veterinary agreement is available now if the UK government didn't have such an irredentist view of sovereignty. Publicly moaning about regulation being ridiculous isn't useful in either getting rid of them or managing them.

At least M&S has the resources. Smaller businesses are Brexit red-taped out of the market.

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Closer with Survation tonight

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 11%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border

Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/

Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM

Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections

BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

Here is the url you so revealingly published:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

SNP gains from SCon:
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

SNP gains from SLD:
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours

I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.

It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 3 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair

Nah, wouldn’t happen. He’d pass a bill moving from FPTP to a more proportionate system in the hope of retaining power,and he’d dissolve parliament.

He couldn't pass it without SNP support and even if he managed to before they left the Commons even under PR we would likely see a repeat of the 2015 result and a Tory and UKIP/Farage combined majority on votes (the Tories and UKIP got 54% of the vote combined in England in 2015 and add in the DUP too) to screw the SNP and end all spending to Scotland as soon as possible as English voters turned English Nationalist.

There would then also be a hard border and customs posts from Berwick to Carlisle

What do you mean “as English voters turned English Nationalist”? They already have: it’s called Brexit.

For the whole UK, Wales also voted for Brexit as did much of NI

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

The images of 450 migrants simply beaching in Kent, in one single day, and then scattering are absolutely appalling for the Tories

TAKE BACK CONTROL?!

If they don't get a grip on this the government is fucked

WE'VE HAD A REPORT OF A KAYAK!

He actually said that. #accidentalpartridge

NF says the only solution is tow backs and that the government doesn't have the backbone to do it. He's right on both points.

IshmaelZ said:

eek said:

MattW said:

eek said:

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Spectator hasn't learned Johnson's lesson about taking on Rashford:

https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1417560450393329666?s=20

The spectator are preaching to their audience, I would be surprised if anyone else even mentions it.

It's interesting that some Luvvies and some Lefties are going for a pre-demonisation narrative an assumption that the "shit rag" (copyright Nick Kumar) "terrified" (Toby Earle) Spectator are 'going for' Rashford. Quite startling tweets here:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2021/07/21/marcus-rashford-versus-spectator/

I wonder what the Spectator have? Any sense and it will be straight reporting.

On a previous occasion Rashford went for an MP after not checking the context of a tweet, and most media swallowed it.

*Awaits outcome with interest*

It's worth looking at the first tweet

Just heard
@spectator
are planning to run a story on me tomorrow about how I have benefitted commercially in the last 18 months…

So the claim will be that Marcus has made money from the companies who have signed up to support the work he's doing - and I suspect the issue is that "most, but not all the money" has been going to the good causes.

Which probably isn't surprising as I suspect Marcus now has a few people managing / operating his campaigns and they need to be paid... But you can see ways in which the Spectator can make that look very bad.

Oh good, just signed up for 10 weeks spectators and a bottle of pimms all for £4.95.

Charles said:

NickPalmer said:

MikeSmithson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IanB2 said:

Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

Erm no, because
1. The box needs to be destroyed now
2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.

This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal

It's an interesting example of the limitations of Johnson's habit of deciding stuff on a wing and sorting out any problems later. That can work quite well in electoral with non-technical stuff. If they declare nightclubs open without restriction, then say nah, on reflection they need vaxports, everyone will be irritated and some people will die before they get round to sorting it, but in a few months everyone will have moved on, and if they're ruthless enough not to care about unnecessary deaths, the electoral consequences will be negligible.

But Northern Ireland is a technical problem, and you can't talk it away, any more than you can repair a machine by thetorical flourishes. There are only 3 choices that actually work:

1. Decide NI isn't part of the Customs Union after all. Problem: border trade collapses.
2. Decide NI isn't part of the UK for trading purposes. Problem: UK-NI trade collapses
3. Decide to accept continuation of common standards. Problem: we surrender the right to fall behind EU standards in the future.

Fudges - trusted traders, informal deals, delays, etc. simply won't work durably. There's a fundamental choice, and Johnson de facto chose 2 plus fudge.

I think the outcome may be 3 with the theoretical option to change in future which will in practice not be used.

Fundamentally trusted trader schemes are the only way to square this particular circle

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

The images of 450 migrants simply beaching in Kent, in one single day, and then scattering are absolutely appalling for the Tories

TAKE BACK CONTROL?!

If they don't get a grip on this the government is fucked

WE'VE HAD A REPORT OF A KAYAK!

He actually said that. #accidentalpartridge

NF says the only solution is tow backs and that the government doesn't have the backbone to do it. He's right on both points.

Dura_Ace said:

Leon said:

The images of 450 migrants simply beaching in Kent, in one single day, and then scattering are absolutely appalling for the Tories

TAKE BACK CONTROL?!

If they don't get a grip on this the government is fucked

WE'VE HAD A REPORT OF A KAYAK!

He actually said that. #accidentalpartridge

NF says the only solution is tow backs and that the government doesn't have the backbone to do it. He's right on both points.

Candy said:

Taz said:

We should take our fair share. Obviously we cannot take 10 million but 80 - 100K is feasible.

Remember Labour thought only about 130,000 eastern Europeans would arrive in total. But over 6 million applied for the settled scheme status.

We have also given asylum status to 3 million Hong Kongers and take-up of that offer is brisk.

So we're already looking at nearly 10 million people seeking asylum from the EU's poor economy (the eastern europeans) and from China (the Hong Kongers).

If you open the door to new migrants from France, it won't stick to the 100k you envisage - it will be four to five million.

Also - the boat people seem to originate from Syria, Albania and Iran - these are not countries that Britain has ever had responsibility for. Syria used to be a French colony, Albania was Ottoman and Iran was independent. Not sure why Britain should be responsible for them.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Charles said:

NickPalmer said:

MikeSmithson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IanB2 said:

Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

Erm no, because
1. The box needs to be destroyed now
2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.

This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal

It's an interesting example of the limitations of Johnson's habit of deciding stuff on a wing and sorting out any problems later. That can work quite well in electoral with non-technical stuff. If they declare nightclubs open without restriction, then say nah, on reflection they need vaxports, everyone will be irritated and some people will die before they get round to sorting it, but in a few months everyone will have moved on, and if they're ruthless enough not to care about unnecessary deaths, the electoral consequences will be negligible.

But Northern Ireland is a technical problem, and you can't talk it away, any more than you can repair a machine by thetorical flourishes. There are only 3 choices that actually work:

1. Decide NI isn't part of the Customs Union after all. Problem: border trade collapses.
2. Decide NI isn't part of the UK for trading purposes. Problem: UK-NI trade collapses
3. Decide to accept continuation of common standards. Problem: we surrender the right to fall behind EU standards in the future.

Fudges - trusted traders, informal deals, delays, etc. simply won't work durably. There's a fundamental choice, and Johnson de facto chose 2 plus fudge.

I think the outcome may be 3 with the theoretical option to change in future which will in practice not be used.

Fundamentally trusted trader schemes are the only way to square this particular circle

Trusted trader = barriers to entry, oligopoly and higher prices.

Taz said:

Charles said:

Taz said:

Charles said:

Taz said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Closer with Survation tonight

Tories 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 11%

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border

Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

Where are you getting these figures from?

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/

Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM

Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

Scotnat 47.7%
Scotcon 23%
Scotlab 19.6%
Scotlib 6%
Scotgreen 2.1%
Scotreform 0.4%

Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections

BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

Here is the url you so revealingly published:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

SNP gains from SCon:
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

SNP gains from SLD:
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours

I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.

It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 3 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair

Nah, wouldn’t happen. He’d pass a bill moving from FPTP to a more proportionate system in the hope of retaining power,and he’d dissolve parliament.

And it would be appropriate for Scottish MPs to vote on that?

Not really but you cannot stop them.

True. I can’t. I suspect the Speaker might have something to say about it.

True, but he can huff and puff but can’t stop them. They aren’t likely to care and they will regard a progressive alliance govt to be far more,kind to them than a Tory one.