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How the PM’s leader ratings are moving – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Good joint initiative with Scotland and England border counties

    BBC News - Cross-border City of Culture bid is launched
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-57901216

    One of the problems with Cumbria County Council being based in Carlisle and getting involved in schemes like this is that it ignores the large parts of Cumbria which are not close to the Scottish borders eg South Lakeland where I live.

    The money and efforts are focused on a very small area and the rest is ignored. Some of the people responsible for waste services in our area, for instance, haven't even visited here. Having a unitary authority for Cumbria is a disaster and I have said as much in response to the recent consultation.
    But hopefully the benefits will accrue across all the regions

    The other interesting point is once the Scots and English border counties come together for the benefit of the whole region, independence becomes far more problematic for them
    The latter may be the case.

    But the point is that the benefits won't accrue across the region because the current Cumbria County Council leadership is obsessed with extending links with Scotland and ignoring the rest of the county.

    So there is a current project to extend cycling routes down the West coast of Cumbria to South Lakeland and join it up with existing cycle paths. Husband is working on this. This would be beneficial for all sorts of reasons. Does the Council care or help? Bollocks it does. It is only interested in cycling routes into Scotland.
    Does the County intend to recreate the Kingdom of Strathclyde, linking up with the SW of Scotland and gain the benefits of forthcoming Scottish independence?

    Could be a winner.
    Not if the Scottish borders decided to stay with rUK
    What if Northumberland wants to join Scotland?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Andy_JS said:

    Brisbane has been awarded the 2032 Olympics. Congratulations to them. But will the Australian border be open by then?

    Sounds like an event worth visiting! Smallest city to host the summer games since Helsinki?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Closer with Survation tonight

    Tories 39%
    Labour 35%
    LDs 11%

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

    Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.
    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

    So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

    IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

    The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
    Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

    However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

    https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/
    Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

    For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM
    Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

    Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

    You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections
    BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

    Here is the url you so revealingly published:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

    Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

    SNP gains from SCon:
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
    Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

    SNP gains from SLD:
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

    As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

    However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

    As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

    If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours
    I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.
    It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

    As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

    Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair
    I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.
    If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

    Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

    London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

    The voters of southern England will be ecstatic when their new “English Nationalist” (sic) government imposes the concrete silos with 260 nuclear warheads. HS2 will look like a walk in the park.
    No no no. We don't need silos darling, our nukes are sea launched. HYUFD will simply fire the missiles at the borders to create a physical border that will keep the dirty Scotch away from blessed Albion.
    Do a bit of research into Coulport. Go and visit the area and drive around. Look at the fuzzed out areas on Google Maps. Those are immense concrete silos in them thar hills. Housing most of the nuclear warheads. Only a few are ever out at sea at any one time.

    Now, ask yourself, which southern English national park is going to be the new home for those concrete silos?
    We will find one with plenty of space, Cumbria likes nuclear power and subs which give them lots of jobs so round Barrow would be a choice.

    Of course once the SNP have given up nukes and withdrawn from NATO we in England can then watch as Putin enters an independent Scotland without barely a fight and takes all the oil you are boasting about so much
    HYUFD are you really predicting that if Scotland went indy and left NATO Russia would invade? Really?
    An English Conservative cheering on the idea of Russia invading & occupying the only country with which England has a land border is pretty much the definition of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Also add on geopolitical nitwittedness of course.
    Russia would not invade. Russia would, however, step up its buzzing of Scottish airspace, forcing the Scottish Air Force to spend a small fortune on interceptions, so either Scotland would arrange for the RAF to carry these out, or invite the USAF. Either way, once they've done that, there is no reason leaving the nuclear weapons where they are could not be part of an agreement, which is where we came in. Similarly, the Russian navy might inspect Scotland's coastal defences.
    Is non NATO member Ireland much troubled in this way?
    I'd imagine the continuing presence of Trident in an indy Scotland would exacerbate Russian attention rather than defuse it.
    Ireland does not have the oil Scotland has which Putin would be after.

    Ireland has taken a risk by not being in NATO certainly but is at less risk than an independent Scotland would be
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    Big day for the covid numbers (It's a wednesday)
    Pulps scorecard

    Par 56,022

    Above, bad.
    Below, good
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited July 2021
    Cummings is like Harry - wasting assets as time passes and puts distance between them and the positions that once made them famous, their coinage debased by each media outing.

    https://twitter.com/SirSocks/status/1417771026562301956?s=20

    I think the difference is Cummings may do more damage to his former hosts.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Good joint initiative with Scotland and England border counties

    BBC News - Cross-border City of Culture bid is launched
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-57901216

    One of the problems with Cumbria County Council being based in Carlisle and getting involved in schemes like this is that it ignores the large parts of Cumbria which are not close to the Scottish borders eg South Lakeland where I live.

    The money and efforts are focused on a very small area and the rest is ignored. Some of the people responsible for waste services in our area, for instance, haven't even visited here. Having a unitary authority for Cumbria is a disaster and I have said as much in response to the recent consultation.
    But hopefully the benefits will accrue across all the regions

    The other interesting point is once the Scots and English border counties come together for the benefit of the whole region, independence becomes far more problematic for them
    The latter may be the case.

    But the point is that the benefits won't accrue across the region because the current Cumbria County Council leadership is obsessed with extending links with Scotland and ignoring the rest of the county.

    So there is a current project to extend cycling routes down the West coast of Cumbria to South Lakeland and join it up with existing cycle paths. Husband is working on this. This would be beneficial for all sorts of reasons. Does the Council care or help? Bollocks it does. It is only interested in cycling routes into Scotland.
    Does the County intend to recreate the Kingdom of Strathclyde, linking up with the SW of Scotland and gain the benefits of forthcoming Scottish independence?

    Could be a winner.
    Not if the Scottish borders decided to stay with rUK
    What if Northumberland wants to join Scotland?
    It wouldn't most seats in Northumberland are now Tory held, as most seats in the Scottish borders are also Tory held
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    maaarsh said:

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

    Don't know what Archie Norman's point is. Brexit is his party's policy. Deal with it.

    And as chaiman of M&S it is up to people in his company to manage the rules as they are and/or lobby for possible change - eg a Swiss style veterinary agreement is available now if the UK government didn't have such an irredentist view of sovereignty. Publicly moaning about regulation being ridiculous isn't useful in either getting rid of them or managing them.

    At least M&S has the resources. Smaller businesses are Brexit red-taped out of the market.
    The leadership of M&S raise Brexit everytime they have to face investors as they know it'll get the headline rather than their continued poor performance.
    Their food offering has declined and risen in price over the last year, first time I can remember a decline in their food quality. Might be a coincidence, Covid or Ocado related but feels significantly Brexit driven to me.
    They are actually going to start paying dividends again.
    At the higher price and lower quality mix I am not surprised! Will customers remain loyal as standards drop though?
    With the driver shortage, supermarket quality is determined more by who has the more resilient logistics than by their product marketing. I was in Waitrose and it was bad. Hardly any fresh produce, what there was very close to the expiry date in a bad state. I picked up a packet of tomatoes that I had to throw out because they were all rotten. Lidl by contrast has been rather better.

    End of days when Waitrose has gone to pot
    Try a proper supermarket.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Closer with Survation tonight

    Tories 39%
    Labour 35%
    LDs 11%

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

    Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.
    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

    So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

    IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

    The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
    Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

    However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

    https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/
    Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

    For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM
    Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

    Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

    You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections
    BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

    Here is the url you so revealingly published:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

    Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

    SNP gains from SCon:
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
    Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

    SNP gains from SLD:
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

    As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

    However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

    As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

    If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours
    I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.
    It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

    As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

    Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair
    I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.
    If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

    Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

    London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

    The voters of southern England will be ecstatic when their new “English Nationalist” (sic) government imposes the concrete silos with 260 nuclear warheads. HS2 will look like a walk in the park.
    No no no. We don't need silos darling, our nukes are sea launched. HYUFD will simply fire the missiles at the borders to create a physical border that will keep the dirty Scotch away from blessed Albion.
    Do a bit of research into Coulport. Go and visit the area and drive around. Look at the fuzzed out areas on Google Maps. Those are immense concrete silos in them thar hills. Housing most of the nuclear warheads. Only a few are ever out at sea at any one time.

    Now, ask yourself, which southern English national park is going to be the new home for those concrete silos?
    We will find one with plenty of space, Cumbria likes nuclear power and subs which give them lots of jobs so round Barrow would be a choice.

    Of course once the SNP have given up nukes and withdrawn from NATO we in England can then watch as Putin enters an independent Scotland without barely a fight and takes all the oil you are boasting about so much
    HYUFD are you really predicting that if Scotland went indy and left NATO Russia would invade? Really?
    An English Conservative cheering on the idea of Russia invading & occupying the only country with which England has a land border is pretty much the definition of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Also add on geopolitical nitwittedness of course.
    You are forgetting England and Wales and NI would still have nuclear weapons and still be in NATO, so safe from Russian invasion in a way a Scotland without nuclear weapons and out of NATO would not be
    NI would have re-united with the rest of the island by then, surely. And the way things are going, nuclear weapons in Wales would give rise to strong local objections.
    The Catholic and Nationalist dominated border bits maybe the DUP dominated and Leave voting Antrim and East Londonderry and much of Down would prefer to stay with England and Wales.

    Even Welsh Labour, the largest party in Wales, does not support giving up the nuclear deterrent and leaving NATO as many in the SNP do
    I've always had the impression that while the DUP does have many young members, they are a declining proportion of the party membership, and, further, that younger people in N. Ireland are becoming less obsessed with ancient tribal loyalties.
    It would interesting to see the sort of chart we saw here a day or so ago, showing the breakdown of party support by age.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Closer with Survation tonight

    Tories 39%
    Labour 35%
    LDs 11%

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

    Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.
    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

    So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

    IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

    The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
    Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

    However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

    https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/
    Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

    For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM
    Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

    Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

    You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections
    BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

    Here is the url you so revealingly published:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

    Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

    SNP gains from SCon:
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
    Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

    SNP gains from SLD:
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

    As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

    However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

    As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

    If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours
    I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.
    It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

    As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

    Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair
    I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.
    If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

    Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

    London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

    The voters of southern England will be ecstatic when their new “English Nationalist” (sic) government imposes the concrete silos with 260 nuclear warheads. HS2 will look like a walk in the park.
    No no no. We don't need silos darling, our nukes are sea launched. HYUFD will simply fire the missiles at the borders to create a physical border that will keep the dirty Scotch away from blessed Albion.
    Do a bit of research into Coulport. Go and visit the area and drive around. Look at the fuzzed out areas on Google Maps. Those are immense concrete silos in them thar hills. Housing most of the nuclear warheads. Only a few are ever out at sea at any one time.

    Now, ask yourself, which southern English national park is going to be the new home for those concrete silos?
    Put them in Buckinghamshire. They've already dug up the hills for HS2 and they can't piss off the locals more than they have already.
    And given what used to be sat around that area - it wouldn't move the area any higher up the list of priority nuclear bomb targets (NATO strike command was there for years but I can't remember if it still is).
    Strike Command is still here (or at least I haven’t heard of it being moved).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    Mind you I have 71022 pencilled in for tomorrow...
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Closer with Survation tonight

    Tories 39%
    Labour 35%
    LDs 11%

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

    Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.
    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

    So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

    IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

    The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
    Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

    However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

    https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/
    Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

    For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM
    Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

    Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

    You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections
    BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

    Here is the url you so revealingly published:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

    Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

    SNP gains from SCon:
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
    Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

    SNP gains from SLD:
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

    As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

    However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

    As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

    If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours
    I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.
    It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

    As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

    Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair
    I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.
    If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

    Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

    London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

    The voters of southern England will be ecstatic when their new “English Nationalist” (sic) government imposes the concrete silos with 260 nuclear warheads. HS2 will look like a walk in the park.
    No no no. We don't need silos darling, our nukes are sea launched. HYUFD will simply fire the missiles at the borders to create a physical border that will keep the dirty Scotch away from blessed Albion.
    Do a bit of research into Coulport. Go and visit the area and drive around. Look at the fuzzed out areas on Google Maps. Those are immense concrete silos in them thar hills. Housing most of the nuclear warheads. Only a few are ever out at sea at any one time.

    Now, ask yourself, which southern English national park is going to be the new home for those concrete silos?
    We will find one with plenty of space, Cumbria likes nuclear power and subs which give them lots of jobs so round Barrow would be a choice.

    Of course once the SNP have given up nukes and withdrawn from NATO we in England can then watch as Putin enters an independent Scotland without barely a fight and takes all the oil you are boasting about so much
    HYUFD are you really predicting that if Scotland went indy and left NATO Russia would invade? Really?
    An English Conservative cheering on the idea of Russia invading & occupying the only country with which England has a land border is pretty much the definition of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Also add on geopolitical nitwittedness of course.
    Russia would not invade. Russia would, however, step up its buzzing of Scottish airspace, forcing the Scottish Air Force to spend a small fortune on interceptions, so either Scotland would arrange for the RAF to carry these out, or invite the USAF. Either way, once they've done that, there is no reason leaving the nuclear weapons where they are could not be part of an agreement, which is where we came in. Similarly, the Russian navy might inspect Scotland's coastal defences.
    Is non NATO member Ireland much troubled in this way?
    I'd imagine the continuing presence of Trident in an indy Scotland would exacerbate Russian attention rather than defuse it.
    Ireland does not have the oil Scotland has which Putin would be after.

    Ireland has taken a risk by not being in NATO certainly but is at less risk than an independent Scotland would be
    I'm afraid this is complete nonsense.

    There is no oil and Scotland would, effectively, be protected by rUK's NATO membership. Just as the Irish Republic is.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,988
    HYUFD said:



    Ireland does not have the oil Scotland has which Putin would be after.

    Ireland has taken a risk by not being in NATO certainly but is at less risk than an independent Scotland would be

    Yeah, Putin is absolutely desperate for oil.


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,448

    If we’d closed the borders and locked down hard as soon as the cases started rising again, we could have been free of COVID almost entirely by now.

    The New Zealand/Taiwan model will always be the best

    Perhaps, though New Zealand is 3,500 miles from its nearest neighbour and has a fraction of the trade with its neighbours that we do.
    And it is two islands with scattered population and no real conurbations in the sense of the UK

    My eldest son lived there from 2003 until leaving to live in Canada in 2015

    It is a wonderful country but miles away from its nearest neighbours in Australia
    I think you could describe Auckland as a 'conurbation'.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    HYUFD said:


    You are forgetting England and Wales and NI would still have nuclear weapons and still be in NATO, so safe from Russian invasion in a way a Scotland without nuclear weapons and out of NATO would not be

    Yeah, the elite of the Russian 3rd Mechanised Rapist Division would just stop at Jedburgh. That's exactly what would happen.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Amphibian has heard different (3,6)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    FF43 said:

    Just caught up with @bbclaurak interview with Dom Cummings. Always thought he was much more nuanced than painted. But he comes across as a would-be Caudillo. If his analysis is right we should all say Thank You Carrie.

    https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1417610497038356483?s=20

    This below. I agree with Cummings that Johnson is an unfit person to be anywhere near government, but his government was democratically elected. We are talking here about an attack on democracy:



    Can he be done for planning sedition?
    Don't be silly! A model should be cast for Laura Kuenssberg. It was an excellent interview and the poscast is by all accounts even better. She exposed two small time crooks who shouldn't be running a chip shop let alone a country. It was funny and creepy and I'm sure it will have consequences. Although Cummings is certainly barking mad there's no question that his judgement on Johnson was spot on. Mike's bet that the Tories lose their lead this year is all but certain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:


    You are forgetting England and Wales and NI would still have nuclear weapons and still be in NATO, so safe from Russian invasion in a way a Scotland without nuclear weapons and out of NATO would not be

    Yeah, the elite of the Russian 3rd Mechanised Rapist Division would just stop at Jedburgh. That's exactly what would happen.
    They are not going to invade a fellow P5 UN Security Council permanent member with nuclear weapons as a weapon of defence of last resort and with NATO membership so other NATO members are mutually obliged to defend it in the event of invasion
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    HYUFD said:



    Ireland does not have the oil Scotland has which Putin would be after.

    Ireland has taken a risk by not being in NATO certainly but is at less risk than an independent Scotland would be

    Yeah, Putin is absolutely desperate for oil.


    He could always do with more and increasing his oil share per capita, see how powerful Saudi Arabia is on that basis
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Closer with Survation tonight

    Tories 39%
    Labour 35%
    LDs 11%

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

    Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.
    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

    So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

    IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

    The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
    Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

    However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

    https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/
    Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

    For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM
    Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

    Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

    You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections
    BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

    Here is the url you so revealingly published:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

    Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

    SNP gains from SCon:
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
    Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

    SNP gains from SLD:
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

    As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

    However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

    As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

    If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours
    I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.
    It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

    As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

    Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair
    I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.
    If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

    Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

    London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

    The voters of southern England will be ecstatic when their new “English Nationalist” (sic) government imposes the concrete silos with 260 nuclear warheads. HS2 will look like a walk in the park.
    No no no. We don't need silos darling, our nukes are sea launched. HYUFD will simply fire the missiles at the borders to create a physical border that will keep the dirty Scotch away from blessed Albion.
    Do a bit of research into Coulport. Go and visit the area and drive around. Look at the fuzzed out areas on Google Maps. Those are immense concrete silos in them thar hills. Housing most of the nuclear warheads. Only a few are ever out at sea at any one time.

    Now, ask yourself, which southern English national park is going to be the new home for those concrete silos?
    We will find one with plenty of space, Cumbria likes nuclear power and subs which give them lots of jobs so round Barrow would be a choice.

    Of course once the SNP have given up nukes and withdrawn from NATO we in England can then watch as Putin enters an independent Scotland without barely a fight and takes all the oil you are boasting about so much
    HYUFD are you really predicting that if Scotland went indy and left NATO Russia would invade? Really?
    An English Conservative cheering on the idea of Russia invading & occupying the only country with which England has a land border is pretty much the definition of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Also add on geopolitical nitwittedness of course.
    Russia would not invade. Russia would, however, step up its buzzing of Scottish airspace, forcing the Scottish Air Force to spend a small fortune on interceptions, so either Scotland would arrange for the RAF to carry these out, or invite the USAF. Either way, once they've done that, there is no reason leaving the nuclear weapons where they are could not be part of an agreement, which is where we came in. Similarly, the Russian navy might inspect Scotland's coastal defences.
    Is non NATO member Ireland much troubled in this way?
    I'd imagine the continuing presence of Trident in an indy Scotland would exacerbate Russian attention rather than defuse it.
    Ireland does not have the oil Scotland has which Putin would be after.

    Ireland has taken a risk by not being in NATO certainly but is at less risk than an independent Scotland would be
    I'm afraid this is complete nonsense.

    There is no oil and Scotland would, effectively, be protected by rUK's NATO membership. Just as the Irish Republic is.
    It wouldn't, NATO members are only obliged to defend other NATO members
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    I've now watched the Dominic Cummings interview.

    1. His hand was near his mouth for most of the time he was speaking. You don't have to know much about body language to know what that means.

    2. The most important bit, the bit that gets to the core of what he is all about, was when he said that when "you’re trying to do very hard things", like dealing with "war and terrorism and things like that", "we should be very very aggressively trying to get into position these very rare people who are times 100 or times 1000 smarter, more able than the norm into those crucial positions".

    3. If you just want some amusement, try the part where he says that MPs should take matters into their own hands. Yeah, right.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

    I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

    Erm no, because
    1. The box needs to be destroyed now
    2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
    3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

    It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.
    This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal
    It's an interesting example of the limitations of Johnson's habit of deciding stuff on a wing and sorting out any problems later. That can work quite well in electoral with non-technical stuff. If they declare nightclubs open without restriction, then say nah, on reflection they need vaxports, everyone will be irritated and some people will die before they get round to sorting it, but in a few months everyone will have moved on, and if they're ruthless enough not to care about unnecessary deaths, the electoral consequences will be negligible.

    But Northern Ireland is a technical problem, and you can't talk it away, any more than you can repair a machine by thetorical flourishes. There are only 3 choices that actually work:

    1. Decide NI isn't part of the Customs Union after all. Problem: border trade collapses.
    2. Decide NI isn't part of the UK for trading purposes. Problem: UK-NI trade collapses
    3. Decide to accept continuation of common standards. Problem: we surrender the right to fall behind EU standards in the future.

    Fudges - trusted traders, informal deals, delays, etc. simply won't work durably. There's a fundamental choice, and Johnson de facto chose 2 plus fudge.

    I think the outcome may be 3 with the theoretical option to change in future which will in practice not be used.
    Fundamentally trusted trader schemes are the only way to square this particular circle
    Trusted trader = barriers to entry, oligopoly and higher prices.
    Sure. But since the EU seems to have some kind of fetish about “protecting the single market” and are unwilling to come up with a sensible solution on the ground - we see their attitude in the Gibraltar mandate - then we need to figure out a solution that respects the intention behind the Good Friday Agreement
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

    I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

    Erm no, because
    1. The box needs to be destroyed now
    2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
    3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

    It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.
    This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal
    It's an interesting example of the limitations of Johnson's habit of deciding stuff on a wing and sorting out any problems later. That can work quite well in electoral with non-technical stuff. If they declare nightclubs open without restriction, then say nah, on reflection they need vaxports, everyone will be irritated and some people will die before they get round to sorting it, but in a few months everyone will have moved on, and if they're ruthless enough not to care about unnecessary deaths, the electoral consequences will be negligible.

    But Northern Ireland is a technical problem, and you can't talk it away, any more than you can repair a machine by thetorical flourishes. There are only 3 choices that actually work:

    1. Decide NI isn't part of the Customs Union after all. Problem: border trade collapses.
    2. Decide NI isn't part of the UK for trading purposes. Problem: UK-NI trade collapses
    3. Decide to accept continuation of common standards. Problem: we surrender the right to fall behind EU standards in the future.

    Fudges - trusted traders, informal deals, delays, etc. simply won't work durably. There's a fundamental choice, and Johnson de facto chose 2 plus fudge.

    I think the outcome may be 3 with the theoretical option to change in future which will in practice not be used.
    Fundamentally trusted trader schemes are the only way to square this particular circle
    I think there is a trusted trader scheme, but maybe it doesn't do enough.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-trader-scheme-launched-to-support-businesses-moving-goods-from-great-britain-to-northern-ireland
    I recall some article about the EU refusing to recognise it because it included too many companies
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Taz said:

    Charles said:

    Taz said:

    Charles said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Closer with Survation tonight

    Tories 39%
    Labour 35%
    LDs 11%

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

    Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.
    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

    So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

    IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

    The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
    Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

    However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

    https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/
    Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

    For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM
    Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

    Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

    You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections
    BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

    Here is the url you so revealingly published:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

    Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

    SNP gains from SCon:
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
    Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

    SNP gains from SLD:
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

    As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

    However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

    As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

    If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours
    I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.
    It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

    As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

    Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 3 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair
    Nah, wouldn’t happen. He’d pass a bill moving from FPTP to a more proportionate system in the hope of retaining power,and he’d dissolve parliament.
    And it would be appropriate for Scottish MPs to vote on that?
    Not really but you cannot stop them.
    True. I can’t. I suspect the Speaker might have something to say about it.
    True, but he can huff and puff but can’t stop them. They aren’t likely to care and they will regard a progressive alliance govt to be far more,kind to them than a Tory one.
    I don’t know without checking but I suspect he can stop them. Can he designate something as a piece of English law, fir example? (Although I think the government is abandoning EVEL)
    Yepp. Gone.

    https://nation.cymru/news/england-is-completely-ignored-campaigners-call-for-english-parliament-as-evel-is-scrapped/

    What are the implications on terms of the SNP though?

    I find it strange that in this scenario - post an Indy vote - that the SNP MPs would vote to change the electoral system in rUK?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    Andy_JS said:

    Brisbane has been awarded the 2032 Olympics. Congratulations to them. But will the Australian border be open by then?

    Have the Tokyo Games already begun? BBC2 were showing GB v. Chile in the ladies' footy earlier.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217
    edited July 2021
    Very funny.

    BBC have jumped on the Marcus Rashford dogpile before the Spectator have published anything.
    https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1417560450393329666

    AFAICS they have missed out the bit where he recognised his commercial appeal would be increased.

    Spectator PR stunt?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Closer with Survation tonight

    Tories 39%
    Labour 35%
    LDs 11%

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20

    Interesting labour and lib dems managing better numbers. Normally it is one or the other.
    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers from Survation with Tories 310, Labour 247, SNP 55, LDs 15.

    So Starmer could be PM with SNP, LD and Green and PC support, the Tories would certainly need the DUP to have a chance of staying in office.

    IDS, Raab, Villiers and Steve Baker would lose their seats

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Which would still see a hung parliament on the UK Survation numbers and PM Starmer propped up by the SNP and LDs, the SDLP, PC, Alliance and Greens despite another Tory majority in England.

    The DUP would not support the Tories again unless they removed the Irish Sea border
    Err… yes. Thanks. Hate to be a pain, but I repeat my question:

    Where are you getting these figures from?

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Scottish figures are largely irrelevant to the UK total unless the SCons take the lead as the SNP will prop up Labour anyway, so your Scottish subsample demand is also largely irrelevant.

    However the Scottish figures are SNP 39%, Tories 22%, Labour 19%, Greens 5%, LDs 4%

    https://www.survation.com/survation-19-july-2021-uk-politics-survey/
    Nope. Now you’re answering a question I did not ask. I know it’s terribly old-fashioned, but could you give a straight answer to a straight question? Please inform us where you got the figures you pumped in to Martin Baxter’s ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Here https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1417559489700630541?s=20 and it is UK figures and UK figures alone that matter for UK elections.

    For unless the Scottish Conservatives take the lead in Scotland whether the SNP lead or SLab lead it makes no difference, their MPs will both make Starmer PM
    Nope, you are still obfuscating. The link you provided does not contain the numbers you yourself pumped into Baxter’s calculator.

    Please inform us where you got the figures you entered in to the ElectoralCalculus calculator:

    Scotnat 47.7%
    Scotcon 23%
    Scotlab 19.6%
    Scotlib 6%
    Scotgreen 2.1%
    Scotreform 0.4%
    Nope Nats like you have got to realise not all polls revolve around you, I have now given you both the UK and Scottish Survation figures both of which would make Starmer PM with minor parties support, exactly as the 2019 Scottish numbers would.

    You are Labour's little helpers at Westminster so obviously we don't give a toss precisely how many little Nationalists there are at Westminster as you will all be making Starmer PM anyway. Unless the SCons make significant gains in Scotland, Scottish figures are therefore irrelevant for UK elections
    BritNats like you have got to realise that folk can see through all your huffing and puffing. Behind the bravado you’re shitting it.

    Here is the url you so revealingly published:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=11&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Everybody can clearly see how you are allocating figures to the Scottish parties, so it is you that is clearly obsessed with Scottish electoral behaviour.

    Fascinatingly, you are predicting the following Unionist losses:

    SNP gains from SCon:
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    Dumfries and Galloway (Alister Jack, Secretary of State for Scotland)
    Moray (Douglas Ross, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party)

    SNP gains from SLD:
    Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife
    Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael, former Secretary of State for Scotland)

    As I also posted the actual Scottish figures show your pathetic party down to just 39% from the 45% you got in 2019.

    However it matters not a jot, the little Nationalists would still have the numbers to prop up Starmer with the LDs and other minor parties in a hung parliament.

    As long as we Tories are in power we can and will refuse indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is sod all you can do about it.

    If Starmer gets in however and needs your support to get in power and offers you indyref2 and devomax that is his affair not ours
    I mean its your affair too as you’ll have to live with the consequence of the breakup of our country but I know your short-termism doesn't look that far ahead.
    It would be disappointing of course but if Starmer gave in to the SNP because he needed their support to stay PM in a hung parliament and gave them a legal indyref2 and lost, even after offering Scots devomax then he would immediately lose power.

    As soon as Scottish MPs left the Commons after a Scexit vote we Tories would return to power without an election as we would still have a majority in England, Wales and NI alone. We would then shift to an English Nationalist agenda and take as hard a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks. We would also dominate English politics for a further generation.

    Labour meanwhile having lost Scotland would be utterly screwed. Only 5 times since 1945 have Labour won a majority without Scottish MPs, in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005 and most of those were under Blair
    I'm far from sure that such policies would be as enduringly popular as you blithely assume.
    If there was an indyref2 and the Scottish Nationalists won then English voters would immediately demand as hard a negotiation line as possible with the SNP and Scottish government in Scexit talks and no concessions whatsoever to the SNP.

    Exactly the same as European voters demanded the EU take as hard a line as possible with the Tories and UK government after the Brexit vote.

    London would have to take as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh as Brussels took with London in the Brexit talks or be replaced by a government that would.

    The voters of southern England will be ecstatic when their new “English Nationalist” (sic) government imposes the concrete silos with 260 nuclear warheads. HS2 will look like a walk in the park.
    No no no. We don't need silos darling, our nukes are sea launched. HYUFD will simply fire the missiles at the borders to create a physical border that will keep the dirty Scotch away from blessed Albion.
    Do a bit of research into Coulport. Go and visit the area and drive around. Look at the fuzzed out areas on Google Maps. Those are immense concrete silos in them thar hills. Housing most of the nuclear warheads. Only a few are ever out at sea at any one time.

    Now, ask yourself, which southern English national park is going to be the new home for those concrete silos?
    We will find one with plenty of space, Cumbria likes nuclear power and subs which give them lots of jobs so round Barrow would be a choice.

    Of course once the SNP have given up nukes and withdrawn from NATO we in England can then watch as Putin enters an independent Scotland without barely a fight and takes all the oil you are boasting about so much
    HYUFD are you really predicting that if Scotland went indy and left NATO Russia would invade? Really?
    An English Conservative cheering on the idea of Russia invading & occupying the only country with which England has a land border is pretty much the definition of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Also add on geopolitical nitwittedness of course.
    Russia would not invade. Russia would, however, step up its buzzing of Scottish airspace, forcing the Scottish Air Force to spend a small fortune on interceptions, so either Scotland would arrange for the RAF to carry these out, or invite the USAF. Either way, once they've done that, there is no reason leaving the nuclear weapons where they are could not be part of an agreement, which is where we came in. Similarly, the Russian navy might inspect Scotland's coastal defences.
    Is non NATO member Ireland much troubled in this way?
    I'd imagine the continuing presence of Trident in an indy Scotland would exacerbate Russian attention rather than defuse it.
    Ireland does not have the oil Scotland has which Putin would be after.

    Ireland has taken a risk by not being in NATO certainly but is at less risk than an independent Scotland would be
    I'm afraid this is complete nonsense.

    There is no oil and Scotland would, effectively, be protected by rUK's NATO membership. Just as the Irish Republic is.
    It wouldn't, NATO members are only obliged to defend other NATO members
    And are the Irish not currently starting to debate whether they need a squadron of real jets, as being covered by the UK on the quiet is apparently too embarrassing?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chairman of M&S explaining that Brexit means lorries to the EU (or NI) now carry 700 pages of forms for inspection and delays of 24-48 hours at borders mean some perishable goods are being destroyed. The new paperwork is employing a team of 13 people.

    I had a box of perishable goods turn up 2 months late. We assumed it had been confiscated by customs and then suddenly gets spat out for delivery. "There are customs fees and charges to pay" said the courier.

    Erm no, because
    1. The box needs to be destroyed now
    2. The box was 1 of 2 in a consignment and
    3. the other box got through without charge because the products inside are zero tariff and zero import VAT as shown on the paperwork

    It is a lottery. Our customer has seen it take 4 attempts to get properly certified properly written up chilled products across the border in time to be edible. We're largely giving up on chilled as the supply chain just isn't reliable. Which is why for NI the supply route has quickly swung from UK to NI / ROI to France to ROI / NI much to the rage of the unionists.
    This is all because of BoJo's rubbish Brexit deal
    It's an interesting example of the limitations of Johnson's habit of deciding stuff on a wing and sorting out any problems later. That can work quite well in electoral with non-technical stuff. If they declare nightclubs open without restriction, then say nah, on reflection they need vaxports, everyone will be irritated and some people will die before they get round to sorting it, but in a few months everyone will have moved on, and if they're ruthless enough not to care about unnecessary deaths, the electoral consequences will be negligible.

    But Northern Ireland is a technical problem, and you can't talk it away, any more than you can repair a machine by thetorical flourishes. There are only 3 choices that actually work:

    1. Decide NI isn't part of the Customs Union after all. Problem: border trade collapses.
    2. Decide NI isn't part of the UK for trading purposes. Problem: UK-NI trade collapses
    3. Decide to accept continuation of common standards. Problem: we surrender the right to fall behind EU standards in the future.

    Fudges - trusted traders, informal deals, delays, etc. simply won't work durably. There's a fundamental choice, and Johnson de facto chose 2 plus fudge.

    I think the outcome may be 3 with the theoretical option to change in future which will in practice not be used.
    Fundamentally trusted trader schemes are the only way to square this particular circle
    I think there is a trusted trader scheme, but maybe it doesn't do enough.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-trader-scheme-launched-to-support-businesses-moving-goods-from-great-britain-to-northern-ireland
    I recall some article about the EU refusing to recognise it because it included too many companies
    I think the EU are sitting on it.
This discussion has been closed.