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In the betting it’s about evens that BoJo will re-introduce restrictions by the end of the year – po

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    Alistair said:

    I'm opening a pool on the first member to make a "cases look to have stabalised around the 46-52k figure" post on Monday.

    Can't nominate yourself.

    @MaxPB, of course :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    I announce the foundation of a breakaway Sage group - Continuity Sage. cSage for short.

    Staffing provided by Josias Jessop's Scientist Emporium.

    We are Independently Independent of Independent Sage. We are so Independent that we make Alex Salmon look like a member of the DUP.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gnud said:

    If we are using single-day figures, I'll go for 54000 on 20 July.

    A Tuesday? Well, if you insists.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited July 2021
    Interesting one.

    Just nearly got phished, for the first time.

    It was a purported charge from the Royal Mail for a parcel, with email and web and phone.

    Spotted the questionable url on the transactions screen and a minor typo - "Rozal Mail".

    Not sure why my normal 'don't open a suspect mail' tendency failed on this one; perhaps because I was focused on paying various online accounts.

    Interesting that one card provider made me *still* go through several minutes of messages beore getting to the human being who could block it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982

    I announce the foundation of a breakaway Sage group - Continuity Sage. cSage for short.

    Staffing provided by Josias Jessop's Scientist Emporium.

    We are Independently Independent of Independent Sage. We are so Independent that we make Alex Salmon look like a member of the DUP.

    Somebody will then set up the Real Continuity Independent SAGE....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    2nd jabs are being done in a cohort now that by and large avoids hospitalisation - the under 40s, so the cases to hospitalizations will level out as per Malmesbury graph.
    Once you hit this point, and it looks like we are there, then hospitalizations will rise (And eventually fall) with cases
    But equally once you hit this point there ceases to be much more you can do so need to let nature take its course. So even if cases doubling doubles hospitalisations, if there's little you can do extra to reduce the hospitalisation rate then you simply have to cope with that as well as you can - and better to do that in the summer than the winter.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    The problem is chaos. Literally. The famous butterfly effect. Forecasting becomes harder, the further into the future you look at exponential rates.

    So to make marginally better forecasts, requires massively more powerful computers.

    This is because of reality.
    Global warming, though, is a boundary value problem, rather than an initial value problem. In this case what they want the models to be able to do is to reproduce the changed statistics of extreme weather in a warmer world scenario. Chaos doesn't make that difficult. Not being able to resolve the key physical processes - such as convection - is what is making it difficult.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455
    Alistair said:

    A Tuesday? Well, if you insists.
    Way too soon, even allowing for the speediness of Delta. The peak will be when all the football fans and "Freedom Day" boozers have spread it to their families. Wed 28th at the earliest.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    The problem is chaos. Literally. The famous butterfly effect. Forecasting becomes harder, the further into the future you look at exponential rates.

    So to make marginally better forecasts, requires massively more powerful computers.

    This is because of reality.
    Yes they will always need more powerful computers. The aim of climate models that can accurately predict the future in any sort of useful detail is a seductive trap unless there is a qualitative breakthrough in technique and/or computer technology. The current ones are of course not making predictions except they are treated as making predictions by everyone. All that expense and all that effort and the uncertainty ranges are not shrinking and what they mean is a deep question. "All models are wrong but some models are useful".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    Also can we please lay off @Chris (myself included).

    He is putting forward a perfectly valid hypothesis which may or may not transpire.

    He is comically arrogant but he's probably young or drunk or insecure that's fine we get worse on here from all of us.

    In fact I'm guessing that whatever he does IRL he doesn't dare mouth off in the way he does here (who does?) so this is a vital lockdown outlet for him.

    You go Chris!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    I thought the modellers latest guesses were that we still have several weeks before we hit the peak.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sleaze.

    Boris Johnson's Scotland adviser claims £6k expenses for speaking six times in Lords last year

    EXCLUSIVE: Lord McInnes will soon become a Special Advisor to Boris Johnson and is likely to play a key role in the Tories' plan to strengthen the Union.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-scotland-adviser-claims-24542202.amp

    Errr you know that parliamentarians do meetings as well as speeches?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Global warming, though, is a boundary value problem, rather than an initial value problem. In this case what they want the models to be able to do is to reproduce the changed statistics of extreme weather in a warmer world scenario. Chaos doesn't make that difficult. Not being able to resolve the key physical processes - such as convection - is what is making it difficult.
    In a way - but modelling the initial state in enough detail to make the forward projection actually have any relevance brings us back to....

    Suffice it to say that there is no amount of compute power that is "enough" - the question is really "How much are you prepared to pay for information on the problem?"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    I announce the foundation of a breakaway Sage group - Continuity Sage. cSage for short.

    Staffing provided by Josias Jessop's Scientist Emporium.

    We are Independently Independent of Independent Sage. We are so Independent that we make Alex Salmon look like a member of the DUP.

    *Twirls his moustache*

    "A bulk order sir? Of course. I'll give you ten for the price of twelve, and throw in a free slot on GB News..."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Somebody will then set up the Real Continuity Independent SAGE....
    That's the Keepin' It Really Real, Incontinent, Really? Continuity SAGE.

    Splitter.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    edited July 2021

    There needs to be a serious investigation into this. There was clearly failure by the police and alleged corruption by staff.

    It could have easily turned into an even bigger disaster.
    We certainly don't deserve to host any football tournaments in the future.

    Unless the Times report is totally wrong, it looks like stewards were accepting bribes to let people without tickets and possibly also without Covid tests into the stadium.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    edited July 2021
    French National Health Authority says it should be considered whether COVID-19 vaccines should be made mandatory for the entire population

    Yellow vests washed....To the burning cars....allez allez....
  • glwglw Posts: 10,255

    When I first worked with chip designers 25 or so years ago, I was surprised to find that the computers they needed to design and simulate their chips were rather powerful. Us software guys had fast computers, but where we might have 8 MB of memory they might have a GB RAM on a shared Sun system (from memory).

    So you'd think that nowadays they could run their sims on a phone? No; for as chips have improved in power, so have the requirements to simulate them.

    As an example, Mrs J needs 16-32 cores to run a simulation; it produces few gig of output data for analysis, and requires many gigs of memory. Simulations can take 12-24 hours to run. And she is not working on cutting-edge process nodes.

    Sure I fully understand that the problems scale-up as well. My skepticism is due to the idea that "if we just had a faster computer we could solve it", all kinds of things were meant to be solved by previous generations of supercomputers but were not.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    Every time they talk of "Independent Sage" I hear the words of Lord Trenchard, when he was told of the formation of the "Independent Striking Force" at the end of WWI, to bomb Germany.

    "Independent of whom? God?"
    What is the purpose of independent Sage anyway ?

    The very name independent seems to imply the other SAGE is not independent in thought.

    They plan to reinvent themselves post COVID to,tackle,the gravy train that is climate change.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    In a way - but modelling the initial state in enough detail to make the forward projection actually have any relevance brings us back to....

    Suffice it to say that there is no amount of compute power that is "enough" - the question is really "How much are you prepared to pay for information on the problem?"
    42
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    There needs to be a serious investigation into this. There was clearly failure by the police and alleged corruption by staff.

    It could have easily turned into an even bigger disaster.
    If Mondays flash flooding had been a day earlier combined with the stadium overcrowding, it could have been hundreds of fatalities.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Sat in the garden, reading PB and watching a family of young long tailed tips coming and going at the feeders. A young great spotted woodpecker and nuthatch too.

    Very pleasant.

    I'll go for 70001 (a fugly number) next Friday as the peak.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    French National Health Authority says it should be considered whether COVID-19 vaccines should be made mandatory for the entire population

    Yellow vests washed....To the burning cars....allez allez....

    A yellow vest would stand out to spotters.
    And the bare arms would greatly aid the snipers with the blowdarts.
    Could be the ideal way to get them vaxxed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Andy_JS said:

    We certainly don't deserve to host any football tournaments in the future.

    Unless the Times report is totally wrong, it looks like stewards were accepting bribes to let people without tickets and possibly also without Covid tests into the stadium.
    I was disgusted - £1,500? You can rent* policemen/women for less than that.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    90210

    25th July.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Taz said:

    What is the purpose of independent Sage anyway ?

    The very name independent seems to imply the other SAGE is not independent in thought.

    They plan to reinvent themselves post COVID to,tackle,the gravy train that is climate change.
    Ostensibly, it was because Cummings was attending the meetings of SAGE so they were no longer politically independent.

    But if that was the case, it’s hard to understand why the members of SAGE didn’t simply resign.

    It’s hard to escape the sense that it was actually a useful echo chamber for those pushing for harder domestic restrictions, rather than anything practical.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Taz said:
    Symbolic of our struggle against lockdown?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited July 2021
    George Russell!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    Go big or go home.
    112 852. On August 2nd.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    ydoethur said:

    Ostensibly, it was because Cummings was attending the meetings of SAGE so they were no longer politically independent.

    But if that was the case, it’s hard to understand why the members of SAGE didn’t simply resign.

    It’s hard to escape the sense that it was actually a useful echo chamber for those pushing for harder domestic restrictions, rather than anything practical.
    Also, Cummings claims to be one of the most pro lockdown people in government at the time, so why would iSage be formed as he'd likely be on that side?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    glw said:

    Sure I fully understand that the problems scale-up as well. My skepticism is due to the idea that "if we just had a faster computer we could solve it", all kinds of things were meant to be solved by previous generations of supercomputers but were not.
    Others on here know much more about this than I do, but I guess it's not a case of 'solving' it. It's a case of getting more accurate predictions, and being able to run many different scenarios with small initial differences (perhaps monte carlo simulations?) to understand how small differences effect outcomes.

    Probably wrong, though.

    What we really need is a new cryptocurrency where the mining runs climate simulation data... ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Taz said:

    42
    No, how much would you pay for the *question*?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Somebody will then set up the Real Continuity Independent SAGE....
    "Bring back the Coronavirus!"
    "It hasn't gone away, you know!"
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    When I first worked with chip designers 25 or so years ago, I was surprised to find that the computers they needed to design and simulate their chips were rather powerful. Us software guys had fast computers, but where we might have 8 MB of memory they might have a GB RAM on a shared Sun system (from memory).

    So you'd think that nowadays they could run their sims on a phone? No; for as chips have improved in power, so have the requirements to simulate them.

    As an example, Mrs J needs 16-32 cores to run a simulation; it produces few gig of output data for analysis, and requires many gigs of memory. Simulations can take 12-24 hours to run. And she is not working on cutting-edge process nodes.
    In 2003 the Met Office relocated from Bracknell to Exeter. They'd planned to install a new supercomputer into the new building in Exeter, but the procurement of that was delayed, so they had to move the existing supercomputer down the motorway, which was an enormous project. It was done very impressively, and since it already came in two (big) boxes they were able to keep running the forecasts on one while they moved the other, and nothing went too wrong, so the forecasts were uninterrupted.

    The A14 chip in an iPhone 12 is as powerful as that supercomputer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Taz said:
    That's not pregnancy, that's lockdown lard. 😂😂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    My online banking wanted updated information including occupation type, and included 'government minister' as an option - a sign Boris is planning a VERY wide reshuffle?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    The crucial question is hospital admissions, because the ratio of deaths to hospital admissions is currently lower than in previous waves. Allowing for a time-lag, these are still running at about 3% of positive cases, while deaths are running at about one tenth of that. (I hope everyone has now given up on the fantasy that hospital admissions and deaths are no longer going to be proportional to positive test results - over the last few weeks, proportionality between them has been rock-solid, though of course with lower constants of proportionality than previously, because of vaccination.)

    In January, there was concern about whether the NHS would be able to cope with the rate of hospital admissions, and the narrative centred on whether the lockdown would control them soon enough to avoid people dying without adequate care being available. In the event, there was a peak of around 4000 admissions a day.

    With the current growth rate of positive tests, and the current hospitalisation rate, the corresponding rate of positive tests (133k a day) will be reached in - on the basis of today's figures - precisely 4 weeks. Of course, the current rate doesn't allow for any acceleration as a result of dropping restrictions on Monday, or any reduction in self-isolation requirements, which are clearly becoming untenable given the infection rate.

    Of course, there is no assurance that - in the absence of any attempt to control the situation - the rate of infection is going to stop at any particular point (and if anyone were stupid enough to bet on the precise accuracy of the modelling, they would deserve to lose every penny). And another very valid point is that whereas past peaks were very short-lived because they were terminated rapidly by a strict lockdown, whatever the peak is in the current "going for broke" scenario, it is going to be sustained over a longer period.

    The biggest mystery to me is why some scientific opinion (though clearly not the majority) seems to have backed the "Big Bang" approach. Given the comments reported today from Whitty, he has his doubts.

    Just to be clear you are extrapolating to infinity, ignoring any vaccine ceiling, coming up with a big number and saying it looks bad?

    Just want to be clear.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Andy_JS said:

    We certainly don't deserve to host any football tournaments in the future.

    Unless the Times report is totally wrong, it looks like stewards were accepting bribes to let people without tickets and possibly also without Covid tests into the stadium.
    The security perimeter around that stadium was clearly grossly deficient. That's partly the fault of the hopeless Met (though Cressida Dick's forcefield shields officers from censure for almost anything,) and partly, I would imagine, the fault of the FA. It would be fascinating to know if there was a large cohort of well paid and properly trained stewards to try to deal with the crowds (invited and uninvited) or, just maybe, a small band of badly outnumbered, zero hours contract grunts, for whom any bribes offered would've been worth considerably more than their paltry wages. Hmmmm, I wonder...?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Sat in the garden, reading PB and watching a family of young long tailed tips coming and going at the feeders. A young great spotted woodpecker and nuthatch too.

    Very pleasant.

    I'll go for 70001 (a fugly number) next Friday as the peak.

    Long tailed tips? Is that an ornithological bet?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848

    Others on here know much more about this than I do, but I guess it's not a case of 'solving' it. It's a case of getting more accurate predictions, and being able to run many different scenarios with small initial differences (perhaps monte carlo simulations?) to understand how small differences effect outcomes.

    Probably wrong, though.

    What we really need is a new cryptocurrency where the mining runs climate simulation data... ;)
    The Ethereum blockchain is (incredibly inefficiently) Turing complete - so you could use that to model climate change.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 773
    TOPPING said:

    Absobloodylutely.

    What s night the Denmark game was. Ram-packed pub people singing, bouncers patrolling with big smiles on their faces beer being flung all over the place.

    Fantastic.

    Like my first dinner last summer with a friend out after months of lockdown.

    Absolutely vital for the nation.
    Less of a celebration for the poor sods who have to clean the pub afterwards.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    That's not pregnancy, that's lockdown lard. 😂😂
    It is in my case.🤬
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    RH1992 said:

    Also, Cummings claims to be one of the most pro lockdown people in government at the time, so why would iSage be formed as he'd likely be on that side?
    Yes, he now claims to have been pro lockdown.

    He also claims to have been the driving force behind academy chains, the man who single-handedly defeated the North East Assembly and to have foreseen the pandemic.

    None of those are true either.

    Early reports in fact indicate he was pressing SAGE to change their advice so there wouldn’t be lockdowns as he believed the system the Swedes ultimately tried would be better.

    While I hate Indie Sage and think they all deserve life sentences and to be stripped of their degrees, I can see how that would undoubtedly compromise their independence.

    A more pertinent issue is that since lots of their advice has turned out to be wrong anyway - the advice not to quarantine travel from abroad springs to mind - and their current behaviour borders on the hysterical, they clearly aren’t much good.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305
    Evening all :)

    I incline to the view, subject to no new and unexpected vaccine-resistant variants, we won't go back to where we were or indeed where we are.

    It may well be personal risk aversion will be about for a fair while and I hope the health measures taken on for example tube and train carriages continue and it wouldn't do any of us any harm to wash our hands more frequently and be more aware of our personal responsibility not to knowingly spread any virus (corona, noro or whatever).

    Changed attitudes to personal and public health may yet be a positive from this experience.

    I'm anticipating a round of booster vaccinations this autumn certainly for the over-50s and perhaps for anyone and everyone else. For those who have gained protection via having the virus itself, it remains to be seen how long that protection will last.

    349 first doses in Newham yesterday, 823 second doses so it's 56.2% for first doses and 36% for second doses.

    If, as has been claimed, the wave of cases in January has given a degree of protection to large numbers in Newham, this may not matter in the short term but if the take up of booster vaccinations in the autumn is as modest as the current vaccination programme, I fear, to quote the song "there may be trouble ahead".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    Stereodog said:

    Less of a celebration for the poor sods who have to clean the pub afterwards.
    The staff were having a cracking time also.

    I'm sure cleaning pubs is cleaning pubs. If they didn't like it they could find a job now not done be an EU national.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kle4 said:

    My online banking wanted updated information including occupation type, and included 'government minister' as an option - a sign Boris is planning a VERY wide reshuffle?

    AIUI, there are certain occupations/identities which trigger special warnings, and politicians are one category, so this may be why.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644

    Whilst defending you on the other argument I have to agree with Nigel on this. There is no evidence we have yet reached herd immunity. I wish it were the case but once has to be realistic.
    The presence of antivodies is nothing to do with near-guaranteed protection (I do think that double vaccination is a reasonable assurance). A colleague in her 30s with one vaccination weeks ago and no underlying conditions is very seriously ill.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    kle4 said:

    My online banking wanted updated information including occupation type, and included 'government minister' as an option - a sign Boris is planning a VERY wide reshuffle?

    You are far too sensible for such a position.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Is anyone putting together a list of predictions for peak case number and date? Could be interesting.

    My entry:
    69,973 on 23/07 by date reported.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    George Russell!!!!!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Carnyx said:

    AIUI, there are certain occupations/identities which trigger special warnings, and politicians are one category, so this may be why.
    A "potentially connected" person, IIRC. All contacts to be reported to compliance etc...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    In a way - but modelling the initial state in enough detail to make the forward projection actually have any relevance brings us back to....

    Suffice it to say that there is no amount of compute power that is "enough" - the question is really "How much are you prepared to pay for information on the problem?"
    Fundamentally they are not trying to predict the exact weather in 40 years time, only the statistics of it. Conceptually the starting conditions shouldn't matter at all.

    What they normally do for a climate model projection is to have a long spin-up model run, that is run with pre-industrial boundary conditions. This is run for long enough that the ocean reaches an equilibrium (this is the spin-up referred to) and then you take starting conditions from this spin-up run at different points in time to start an ensemble of historical runs (than then become future runs) with different starting conditions.

    It's very different to a weather forecast where a greater proportion of the computer resource has been put into creating a better synthesis of the observations, and relatively less on the calculations projecting that forward. That's where the initial conditions are the majority of the problem. It was one rejected aircraft observation that did for the Met Office in 1987, for example.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Long tailed tips? Is that an ornithological bet?
    Autocorrect running in Mary Whitehouse mode!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    French National Health Authority says it should be considered whether COVID-19 vaccines should be made mandatory for the entire population

    Yellow vests washed....To the burning cars....allez allez....

    Thought experiment: French authoritarianism works, the lives of all the malcontents are made so bloody difficult that they give in, and Macron crushes the Plague. British permissiveness doesn't and the anti-vaxxers and unjabbed kiddies precipitate another lockdown in Winter (because our clapped out healthcare system can't cope with Covid on top of flu.)

    How will the British public react?

    (a) We praise our Government for upholding liberal values and the right to choose!
    (b) Make the jab mandatory. Arrest any adult who won't have it, tie them down and inject them by force. Make all the kids have it. If the parents won't consent then take their kids into care and inject them anyway.

    Well, what do we all think?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656
    DougSeal said:

    If I were involved it’s what I would be pretending at this point
    For a couple of weeks I would tune in every day to GB News. At the beginning, its technical flaws – sound and vision out of sync being the most obvious – dominated but a cynic might wonder if this was deliberate – the broadcast equivalent of shitposting – in order to generate interest.

    Now it is just dull.

    Maybe the problem is that while there could be a market for a daily news review show along the lines of Newsnight, or a daily news discussion show where four or people sit round a desk and talk, like The Pledge on Sky News, that is not to say there is an appetite for the same programmes around the clock. Liberace used to say he played classical music with the boring parts taken out. GB News is The One Show with the interesting bits missing.

    Oh and some bloke got sacked for taking the knee, from a channel that claimed to champion free speech.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656

    The primary effect of Euro 2020 is some much needed enjoyment across the nation and a lot of much needed trade for the hospitality sector.
    And the rectal pyrotechnics sector.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    For a couple of weeks I would tune in every day to GB News. At the beginning, its technical flaws – sound and vision out of sync being the most obvious – dominated but a cynic might wonder if this was deliberate – the broadcast equivalent of shitposting – in order to generate interest.

    Now it is just dull.

    Maybe the problem is that while there could be a market for a daily news review show along the lines of Newsnight, or a daily news discussion show where four or people sit round a desk and talk, like The Pledge on Sky News, that is not to say there is an appetite for the same programmes around the clock. Liberace used to say he played classical music with the boring parts taken out. GB News is The One Show with the interesting bits missing.

    Oh and some bloke got sacked for taking the knee, from a channel that claimed to champion free speech.
    Did they have subtitles for the deaf? Often a very good sign of how professional some organization is these days, esp. as they are mandated to a significant proportion of programmes AIUI.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779
    edited July 2021
    A soapbox of mine: models.

    Models should always be treated with scepticism and challenge. But if you are going to base decisions today on future events in an empirical way, models are the way you do it. Rejecting all models because they can be inaccurate is innumerate; rejecting a particular model because it doesn't fit your prejudice is simply ignorant.

    There has been contempt on these pages for the so-called Warwick Model, with people wanting to punish the scientists for dangerously exaggerating the number of cases and hospitalisations, but rather foolishly calling them out before the outcome is known.

    So how has the Warwick Model done? On hospitalisations it has to date underestimated the curve. To return to my point, challenge the model on its assumptions, not its conclusions



    Source: https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1415774164795994123
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    pigeon said:

    Thought experiment: French authoritarianism works, the lives of all the malcontents are made so bloody difficult that they give in, and Macron crushes the Plague. British permissiveness doesn't and the anti-vaxxers and unjabbed kiddies precipitate another lockdown in Winter (because our clapped out healthcare system can't cope with Covid on top of flu.)

    How will the British public react?

    (a) We praise our Government for upholding liberal values and the right to choose!
    (b) Make the jab mandatory. Arrest any adult who won't have it, tie them down and inject them by force. Make all the kids have it. If the parents won't consent then take their kids into care and inject them anyway.

    Well, what do we all think?
    Well, the Guardian Comment Is Free section would explode in a firestorm, so that's a plus.

    Given who a major chunk of the groups you are going to force vaccinate is......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    As schools break up next week, that doesn't seem like an unlikely outcome.
    Very unlikely. It’s not 54,312…
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    For a couple of weeks I would tune in every day to GB News. At the beginning, its technical flaws – sound and vision out of sync being the most obvious – dominated but a cynic might wonder if this was deliberate – the broadcast equivalent of shitposting – in order to generate interest.

    Now it is just dull.

    Maybe the problem is that while there could be a market for a daily news review show along the lines of Newsnight, or a daily news discussion show where four or people sit round a desk and talk, like The Pledge on Sky News, that is not to say there is an appetite for the same programmes around the clock. Liberace used to say he played classical music with the boring parts taken out. GB News is The One Show with the interesting bits missing.

    Oh and some bloke got sacked for taking the knee, from a channel that claimed to champion free speech.
    That's very well said.

    The way Andrew Neil was describing it before it launched it would be a series of news-related programmes through the day rather than round the clock news, like Ian King Live on Sky as a business-specific show rather than just reporting the news for that hour.

    But instead every single show seems to be nothing basically talk and that's it. Boooorrrinnggg.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    On the prediction game, can I go for 200,000 Friday 14th January, 2022 ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    dixiedean said:


    You are far too sensible for such a position.
    I'm sure I could adapt.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    rcs1000 said:

    The Ethereum blockchain is (incredibly inefficiently) Turing complete - so you could use that to model climate change.
    I'm amazed no-one's done it, given one of the significant concerns about power consumption with crypto mining.

    Many years ago, I 'repurposed' (with permission) our stack of build machines to run distributed.net's RC5-64 cracker.

    I've just checked, and am surprised to see they're still going - although on RC5-72 now ...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    FPT (PPT?)

    Indeed!

    In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.

    Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.

    It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
    In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.

    What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.

    I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.

    The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.

    And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I incline to the view, subject to no new and unexpected vaccine-resistant variants, we won't go back to where we were or indeed where we are.

    It may well be personal risk aversion will be about for a fair while and I hope the health measures taken on for example tube and train carriages continue and it wouldn't do any of us any harm to wash our hands more frequently and be more aware of our personal responsibility not to knowingly spread any virus (corona, noro or whatever).

    Changed attitudes to personal and public health may yet be a positive from this experience.

    I'm anticipating a round of booster vaccinations this autumn certainly for the over-50s and perhaps for anyone and everyone else. For those who have gained protection via having the virus itself, it remains to be seen how long that protection will last.

    349 first doses in Newham yesterday, 823 second doses so it's 56.2% for first doses and 36% for second doses.

    If, as has been claimed, the wave of cases in January has given a degree of protection to large numbers in Newham, this may not matter in the short term but if the take up of booster vaccinations in the autumn is as modest as the current vaccination programme, I fear, to quote the song "there may be trouble ahead".

    On the boosters - that's pretty much nailed on now. The Government has said they are planning for them....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    Are you really too stupid to understand that - whatever effect the vaccines have, whatever effect medical care has, and all the rest of it - OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, IF CASE NUMBERS DOUBLE, THEN SO WILL HOSPITALISATIONS?

    Are you really too stupid to read and understand what I say when I write "though of course with lower constants of proportionality than previously, because of vaccination"? I wrote that specifically to help the terminally thick, and still you can't grasp it! (Would it help if I put it into a different colour for you?)
    Surely only if the pool of unvaccinated remains the same. Although the vaccine is available to anyone >18 it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that a higher proportion of older individuals get jabbed.

    To the extent the pool skews to a lower median age over time it’s plausible that hospitalisation rates will decline over time
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    edited July 2021

    Well, the Guardian Comment Is Free section would explode in a firestorm, so that's a plus.

    Given who a major chunk of the groups you are going to force vaccinate is......
    Less of the "you" thanks, I'm not actually advocating any such thing!

    I'm still hoping that this wave is (a) the last major one we're going to get and (b) that it will burn itself out before either the hospitals collapse under the weight of patients or (far more likely) Boris Johnson wets himself because of the rising admissions before they've had the chance to peak, and slams unlocking into reverse.

    There are some grounds for cautious optimism. OTOH we know that this Government is rudderless, clueless, and does so many u-turns that it has long since forgotten in which direction it's facing at any given time. So, we shall see.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196

    The presence of antivodies is nothing to do with near-guaranteed protection (I do think that double vaccination is a reasonable assurance). A colleague in her 30s with one vaccination weeks ago and no underlying conditions is very seriously ill.
    My daughter has had one jab and contracted the virus 10 days ago. Even given her age (20), fitness (good) and lack of underlying conditions it was still enough to make her pretty unwell although thankfully not enough for hospitalisation.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 773
    TOPPING said:

    The staff were having a cracking time also.

    I'm sure cleaning pubs is cleaning pubs. If they didn't like it they could find a job now not done be an EU national.
    Well I thoroughly enjoyed the empty supermarkets while the matches were on. My only regret is that the obviously superior Vindaloo seems to have lost out to Three Lions in the national consciousness.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642
    MattW said:

    FPT (PPT?)

    In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.

    What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.

    I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.

    The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.

    And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
    Ethically sourced cocaine, I’ve seen it, it’s the future.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    The Bank of England returns to the Government any interest it recieves on QE debt, so it has no impact on the deficit.

    As I posed in a think piece (back in the old days when I was a fund manager): if you don't pay interst on it, and you will never be asked to repay the principle, is it really debt?
    It is until they admit they are really just printing money
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    MattW said:

    FPT (PPT?)

    In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.

    What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.

    I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.

    The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.

    And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
    Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.

    Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.

    People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.

    The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422

    The presence of antivodies is nothing to do with near-guaranteed protection (I do think that double vaccination is a reasonable assurance). A colleague in her 30s with one vaccination weeks ago and no underlying conditions is very seriously ill.
    Is she on a ventilator?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,539
    Sandpit said:

    George Russell!!!!!!

    Yes, amazing stuff!!!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642
    Stereodog said:

    Well I thoroughly enjoyed the empty supermarkets while the matches were on. My only regret is that the obviously superior Vindaloo seems to have lost out to Three Lions in the national consciousness.
    World in Motion mate.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    My daughter has had one jab and contracted the virus 10 days ago. Even given her age (20), fitness (good) and lack of underlying conditions it was still enough to make her pretty unwell although thankfully not enough for hospitalisation.
    One of the issues about communication has been that Covid is a pretty nasty illness. The whole ‘mostly mild’ has done a lot of harm. I think too many people assume vaccination means not getting it at all, so when they do get it, and have a bad few days, it’s a shock. We shouldn’t forget that even a heavy cold can be pretty grim. My one lifetime experience of flu is not one I’d ever want to repeat. It’s harsh, but getting it after vaccination is unlucky, but in the long run will give your immune system a booster.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196

    For a couple of weeks I would tune in every day to GB News. At the beginning, its technical flaws – sound and vision out of sync being the most obvious – dominated but a cynic might wonder if this was deliberate – the broadcast equivalent of shitposting – in order to generate interest.

    Now it is just dull.

    Maybe the problem is that while there could be a market for a daily news review show along the lines of Newsnight, or a daily news discussion show where four or people sit round a desk and talk, like The Pledge on Sky News, that is not to say there is an appetite for the same programmes around the clock. Liberace used to say he played classical music with the boring parts taken out. GB News is The One Show with the interesting bits missing.

    Oh and some bloke got sacked for taking the knee, from a channel that claimed to champion free speech.
    Sorry I am stunned by this news.... The One Show has interesting bits???
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FF43 said:

    A soapbox of mine: models.

    Models should always be treated with scepticism and challenge. But if you are going to base decisions today on future events in an empirical way, models are the way you do it. Rejecting all models because they can be inaccurate is innumerate; rejecting a particular model because it doesn't fit your prejudice is simply ignorant.

    There has been contempt on these pages for the so-called Warwick Model, with people wanting to punish the scientists for dangerously exaggerating the number of cases and hospitalisations, but rather foolishly calling them out before the outcome is known.

    So how has the Warwick Model done? On hospitalisations it has to date underestimated the curve. To return to my point, challenge the model on its assumptions, not its conclusions



    Source: https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1415774164795994123

    Worth comparing with the farcical Warwick model that led to the 4 week extension of Stage 3.
    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1404748268979081217

    By this date they were forecasting 2,300 daily admissions.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Carnyx said:

    Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
    but everyone thinks of them as the Tories

    I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    Worth comparing with the farcical Warwick model that led to the 4 week extension of Stage 3.
    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1404748268979081217

    By this date they were forecasting 2,300 daily admissions.
    Thanks. I tried to link to this but couldn’t. Is the original one an updated model?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Gnud said:

    If we are using single-day figures, I'll go for 54000 on 20 July.

    Nearly right…
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,081
    Wow - Lewis Hamilton. But biggest performance is Russel in a WILLIAMS!!!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    Ethically sourced cocaine, I’ve seen it, it’s the future.
    I'd rather a firm like Diageo sources it than drug dealers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    FF43 said:

    A soapbox of mine: models.

    Models should always be treated with scepticism and challenge. But if you are going to base decisions today on future events in an empirical way, models are the way you do it. Rejecting all models because they can be inaccurate is innumerate; rejecting a particular model because it doesn't fit your prejudice is simply ignorant.

    There has been contempt on these pages for the so-called Warwick Model, with people wanting to punish the scientists for dangerously exaggerating the number of cases and hospitalisations, but rather foolishly calling them out before the outcome is known.

    So how has the Warwick Model done? On hospitalisations it has to date underestimated the curve. To return to my point, challenge the model on its assumptions, not its conclusions



    Source: https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1415774164795994123

    So it looks like we might get Xmas this year?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    DougSeal said:

    World in Motion mate.
    I usually hate the contrary sods who, when someone posts a post like yours feel the need to contradict, but I just want to put on my pads and go into bat for ‘Back Home’. It’s ace.

    The presence of antivodies is nothing to do with near-guaranteed protection (I do think that double vaccination is a reasonable assurance). A colleague in her 30s with one vaccination weeks ago and no underlying conditions is very seriously ill.
    Nick, I’m really sorry to hear of your friends plight. One vaccination a few weeks ago will have given her precious little,immunity. It takes a while to build up
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    edited July 2021
    Charles said:

    Surely only if the pool of unvaccinated remains the same. Although the vaccine is available to anyone >18 it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect that a higher proportion of older individuals get jabbed.

    To the extent the pool skews to a lower median age over time it’s plausible that hospitalisation rates will decline over time
    Despite the unnecessary shouting, you're not actually saying very different things. Chris says that, other things being equal, more cases means more hopsitalisations. Charles doesn't disagree - he suggests that other things are not equal because the pool of unvaccinated will change, and the proprtion who are hospitalised will decline over time.

    Quite possibly both things are true. At present, both cases and hospitalisations are rising by about 30% per week, while deaths are rising faster but from a low base. The effect Charles suggests sounds quite long term, so may not help in the next few weeks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    Charles said:

    Errr you know that parliamentarians do meetings as well as speeches?
    A bit of a barrel-scraping article.

    Quite a good system in the Lords; only pay people when they are actually working.

    I wonder if they could do that at Holyrood?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    DougSeal said:

    Ethically sourced cocaine, I’ve seen it, it’s the future.
    As long as it is certified organic. And available from Waitrose.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    Stereodog said:

    Well I thoroughly enjoyed the empty supermarkets while the matches were on. My only regret is that the obviously superior Vindaloo seems to have lost out to Three Lions in the national consciousness.
    There is no accounting for taste.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563

    My daughter has had one jab and contracted the virus 10 days ago. Even given her age (20), fitness (good) and lack of underlying conditions it was still enough to make her pretty unwell although thankfully not enough for hospitalisation.
    Sorry to hear that Richard.

    Plenty of friends' children about that age have had it and it's been horrible but after 10 days it seems to have blown over.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Charles said:

    but everyone thinks of them as the Tories

    I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
    Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.

    Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    T20 not exactly going to plan considering we elected to bowl.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Taz said:

    Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.

    Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.

    People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.

    The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
    Yep, one way or the other. The middle way clearly doesn’t work.

    Either go down the Bangkok/Dubai/Singapore route of throwing the keys away, else legalise it and make tax money.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471
    I’m impressed at the knowledge of weather and climate modelling on this site. I think of myself as a pretty knowledgeable climatology enthusiast of long standing who typically despairs of the misapprehensions rife in the climate debate, yet here on a political betting site we’re getting informed discussion of the difference between equilibrium climate modelling and short term weather modelling at a level several steps above the crap you see even from the science correspondents of the major media outlets. Bravo. PB is truly a place of renaissance people.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Your maths is wrong. 95% is the protection versus if you were unvaccinated, so 5% isn't your risk of being seriously ill since you didn't have a 100% chance of being seriously ill if you got infected in the first place. If 5% of people originally got seriously ill, and the vaccines have 95% protection, then that means you now have a 0.25% of becoming seriously ill post-vaccines.

    Its not over but its as over as its going to be.

    Now we need to let nature take its course. If some antivaxxers die then that's their choice. If some vaccinated people do that's a shame but it will be at very low risk.
    The way I’m thinking it through is that a bit under half a million needed to be hospitalised when about a third of us were infected pre-vax.

    Assume 1.5 million for the whole population, so we’d expect 75,000 or so hospitalisations in a fully vaxxed population.

    Add some unvaxxed (c. 10,000 under 18s and maybe 10% of older people unvaxxed, which would be c. 150,000 if it was evenly distributed by age, but given recent stats on the infection-to-hosp rate in the far-younger-skewed unvaxxed population recently, I’d expect maybe a fifth of that.

    And, of course, downweight the vaxxed hospitalisations by 10% because the denominator is down.

    So: 68,000 vaxxed adults plus 30,000 unvaxxed adults plus 10,000 unvaxxed under-18s would be 108,000 maximum total. We won’t have 100% penetration, even with Delta, so about 100,000 grand total.

    If the average stay in hospital is c. 7 days, then we need to spread that over 10 weeks to keep occupancy below 10,000.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Wow - Lewis Hamilton. But biggest performance is Russel in a WILLIAMS!!!

    Hell yeah, George is doing so well with that car in qualifying.

    Will be interesting to watch the experiment sprint race tomorrow.
This discussion has been closed.