As we head to the Batley and Spen count a reminder of the last two general elections here – politica
Comments
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A radical thought just occurred.
What are the chances of the Tories coming third?
All the publicity has been Galloway or Labour. And there has been a big turnout it seems, so including lots of low information voters. The Tories have been anonymous.
If Labour gets its vote out, and the Woollens go to GG, plus a slice of the Moslem Labour vote, but a slice of the Tory goes Labour to stop George, then...
Feel free to ridicule this idea.0 -
Labour out to 4 on Betfair,0
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I won’t be staying up for tonight. Part of the reason the markets really shifted within minutes in Chesham at approx 1am was the sheer size of the Lib Dem piles making it obvious there were heading for a convincing win.
Everything in Batley points to a much closer race in which case I’m not sure we’ll get anything more than straws in the wind until the very small hours.0 -
I don't understand why the Tories odds are so short. Traditional labour seat, labour have local candidate with unique back story, hancock scandal, no real sign Tories trying thay hard, their own candidate runs a mile from any coverage....
Doesn't really scream nailed on win.0 -
Always the case. 'Good election to lose' and all that, I bet someone claimed the Tories winning so big in 2019 was bad for them in the long run.Jonathan said:High turnout usually means all tribes turned out.
Love the analysis up thread. Winning and losing bad for Labour apparently according to the blue sages of Pb. 🤷♀️1 -
Betfair moves back to the Tories. Now 1.25 vs 3.8 for Labour.0
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But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?
(In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)0 -
No blue tick.bigjohnowls said:0 -
LAB have won in Batley and Spen. But please don't rely on this for betting purposes.0
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I don't see how Cons gets less than 35%, let alone the 30% required to come third.dixiedean said:A radical thought just occurred.
What are the chances of the Tories coming third?
All the publicity has been Galloway or Labour. And there has been a big turnout it seems, so including lots of low information voters.
Feel free to ridicule this idea.0 -
Maybe, but as TSE says it's from a seasoned election reporter, and in the afternoon the noises on declaration time went from, "if it's really close it might be as late as 5am" to, 'nope, it's 5am, we reckon'.alex_ said:0 -
Wouldn't everyone who was previously registered for a postal vote be counted as 'postal votes applied for' ?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, that's not quite true, that's just applications, from experience not every application is sent back.isam said:20% of the electorate voted by post. I presume this is a lot? Who does this help? GG??
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I had a flutter on Gorgeous George just in case something unexpected happened, fully expecting to lose my money.0
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One thing people will want to square away is what, if anything, to do regarding what may be 'encouraged' in guidance. I am thinking about local government for instance - where meetings were being held, and how they would operate, is heavily dependent on the rules and subject to specific dates, and will be affected by guidance, and local gov can move slowly.alex_ said:
But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?
(In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)0 -
Yup.another_richard said:
Wouldn't everyone who was previously registered for a postal vote be counted as 'postal votes applied for' ?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, that's not quite true, that's just applications, from experience not every application is sent back.isam said:20% of the electorate voted by post. I presume this is a lot? Who does this help? GG??
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The important thing is if Labour do win, that the reason be acknowledged. Not a decline in Boris's popularity, or Hancock, or Keir being popular.
It would be NickPalmer wot won it.8 -
I don’t think so. A very insightful Californian asked in the replies why she didn’t have a blue tickbigjohnowls said:0 -
Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/14107159915799552000 -
In good old football analogy parlance, it appears he's been literally everywhere on the pitch today. A colossus. A tower of strength. A bundle of non stop energy.kle4 said:The important thing is if Labour do win, that the reason be acknowledged. Not a decline in Boris's popularity, or Hancock, or Keir being popular.
It would be NickPalmer wot won it.
Absolutely not sat on the end of a phone line in Surrey somewhere.0 -
Anyway, away from politics my 45 years old has just been accepted for the RNLI in Llandudno
We are so proud of him, as he comes from a family with fishing and the merchant navy in their bones
Indeed the RNLI have saved the lives of some members of our family10 -
1. Labour is a bit of a mess.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't understand why the Tories odds are so short. Traditional labour seat, labour have local candidate with unique back story, hancock scandal, no real sign Tories trying thay hard, their own candidate runs a mile from any coverage....
Doesn't really scream nailed on win.
2. This is a Northern seat, and the Conservatives are outperforming in the North.
3. This seat voted heavily Leave, and Starmer is very much a Remainer.
4. There is a large Heavy Woolen/BXP/UKIP vote to squeeze, and the Conservatives have done very well squeezing these votes recently (see Hartlepool).
5. The Labour vote total is very dependent on Muslim voters, and George Galloway is standing (and has a proven track record of successfully courting these voters).
6. Labour's candidate is a bit wet.
In normal times, the Conservatives would get 42-43%, Labour would get 50%, and the dregs would get 7-8%.
Galloway shakes things up. If he takes more than 7-8% of the Labour vote (and I expect he takes 15%), then I can't see how the Conservatives don't win.0 -
Cashed out on B&S
Green across the Board
Good Night2 -
Even when/if the restrictions are gone on the 19th I expect many places to keep them, just not legally enforceable. Pretty sure my uni will try to keep masks going.kle4 said:
One thing people will want to square away is what, if anything, to do regarding what may be 'encouraged' in guidance. I am thinking about local government for instance - where meetings were being held, and how they would operate, is heavily dependent on the rules and subject to specific dates, and will be affected by guidance, and local gov can move slowly.alex_ said:
But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?
(In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)0 -
I would like to make clear that I don't believe my speculation for a minute.dixiedean said:A radical thought just occurred.
What are the chances of the Tories coming third?
All the publicity has been Galloway or Labour. And there has been a big turnout it seems, so including lots of low information voters. The Tories have been anonymous.
If Labour gets its vote out, and the Woollens go to GG, plus a slice of the Moslem Labour vote, but a slice of the Tory goes Labour to stop George, then...
Feel free to ridicule this idea.
Am still predicting a Tory win.1 -
Snip0
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Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in1
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That's ridicules,kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.
The fughlogh scheme is now being tapered off, so if your jab was fugloued 17 months ago and you have been waiting to be allowed back, to work in a night club, you are now stuck for a month, this is silly, just let those who wish to open.1 -
He’s been in the equivalent of Stockley Park!alex_ said:
In good old football analogy parlance, it appears he's been literally everywhere on the pitch today. A colossus. A tower of strength. A bundle of non stop energy.kle4 said:The important thing is if Labour do win, that the reason be acknowledged. Not a decline in Boris's popularity, or Hancock, or Keir being popular.
It would be NickPalmer wot won it.
Absolutely not sat on the end of a phone line in Surrey somewhere.0 -
I love the comment “it’s very dangerous to make predictions before all the votes have been counted”TheScreamingEagles said:Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200
Surely once all the votes have been counted you’ll know the answer so don’t need to make predictions?9 -
Can I suggest we stick with the bet, and we can have a partial settle when England and Wales come out, we can then adjust it as Scotland and Northern Ireland come in.isam said:0 -
I don’t think the Lib Dem’s will get as much as 7-8%rcs1000 said:
1. Labour is a bit of a mess.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't understand why the Tories odds are so short. Traditional labour seat, labour have local candidate with unique back story, hancock scandal, no real sign Tories trying thay hard, their own candidate runs a mile from any coverage....
Doesn't really scream nailed on win.
2. This is a Northern seat, and the Conservatives are outperforming in the North.
3. This seat voted heavily Leave, and Starmer is very much a Remainer.
4. There is a large Heavy Woolen/BXP/UKIP vote to squeeze, and the Conservatives have done very well squeezing these votes recently (see Hartlepool).
5. The Labour vote total is very dependent on Muslim voters, and George Galloway is standing (and has a proven track record of successfully courting these voters).
6. Labour's candidate is a bit wet.
In normal times, the Conservatives would get 42-43%, Labour would get 50%, and the dregs would get 7-8%.
Galloway shakes things up. If he takes more than 7-8% of the Labour vote (and I expect he takes 15%), then I can't see how the Conservatives don't win.
😇0 -
Watching Newsnight. Labour are going to get absolutely spanked overnight, aren't they.
Craig Whittaker MP from Calder Valley is rather unpleasant however.0 -
Yes, but we'll settle 90% of the money in a year, and the remaining 10% in two years. Rolling settlement.isam said:0 -
If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.0
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Indeed, they will not be alone I am sure. I am curious what reaction there will be as places seek to do that, as people refusing to comply will get more traction than anti-vaxxer protestors.turbotubbs said:
Even when/if the restrictions are gone on the 19th I expect many places to keep them, just not legally enforceable. Pretty sure my uni will try to keep masks going.kle4 said:
One thing people will want to square away is what, if anything, to do regarding what may be 'encouraged' in guidance. I am thinking about local government for instance - where meetings were being held, and how they would operate, is heavily dependent on the rules and subject to specific dates, and will be affected by guidance, and local gov can move slowly.alex_ said:
But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?
(In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)0 -
The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:
“Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.
City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.
Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”0 -
Once of the mysteries of UK elections is quite how often the "predictions" are miles out even after the votes are counted. And even after the candidates have been notified of the provisional results!Charles said:
I love the comment “it’s very dangerous to make predictions before all the votes have been counted”TheScreamingEagles said:Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200
Surely once all the votes have been counted you’ll know the answer so don’t need to make predictions?2 -
Hopefully not in full kit!isam said:
He’s been in the equivalent of Stockley Park!alex_ said:
In good old football analogy parlance, it appears he's been literally everywhere on the pitch today. A colossus. A tower of strength. A bundle of non stop energy.kle4 said:The important thing is if Labour do win, that the reason be acknowledged. Not a decline in Boris's popularity, or Hancock, or Keir being popular.
It would be NickPalmer wot won it.
Absolutely not sat on the end of a phone line in Surrey somewhere.0 -
And yet the City of London is still there.StuartDickson said:The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:
“Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.
City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.
Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”1 -
Depends how firm a democracy you have - plenty of places the counting of the votes is no guarantee of knowing the outcome.Charles said:
I love the comment “it’s very dangerous to make predictions before all the votes have been counted”TheScreamingEagles said:Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200
Surely once all the votes have been counted you’ll know the answer so don’t need to make predictions?0 -
Expectation management?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200
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70% says Galloway has mobilised all kinds of non-voters to turn out. As awful as he is it will be piss funny if he wins this1
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Would be the biggest shock since 1832 possibly since 1066.noisywinter said:Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in
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I’m not sure if anyone else believes Owen Jones really wants Kim Leadbeater to win despite his supposed graft on the campaign trail.
Expect the first “I wanted it to work out with Starmer but it’s time for him to go” article in the Guardian by Friday lunchtime.0 -
Who knows???
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NATO actually want her?alex_ said:0 -
May is going to run NATO, or some such rumoured madness.rcs1000 said:
Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
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Forecasts for by-election turnout are usually miles too high.RochdalePioneers said:70% says Galloway has mobilised all kinds of non-voters to turn out. As awful as he is it will be piss funny if he wins this
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That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?BigRich said:
That's ridicules,kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.
Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.
No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
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Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
0 -
Ah...Charles said:
Thanks (and @alex_)
For the record, I think it's Teresa May who's up for the NATO job, not Theresa May.0 -
It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
0 -
Good,StuartDickson said:The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:
“Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.
City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.
Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”
Now there is nobody who can argue that we need to keep the MIFID 2 anti competatative and costly regulations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=MiFID_II&redirect=no
P.S. the use of the expression 'completely cut off' indicates such a strong bias that they cant accept that City of London finical sector has been growing since Brexit Vote,0 -
No. Realisation of a comprehensive Johnson victory.BigRich said:
Expectation management?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/14107159915799552000 -
1066 was a notably brutal election campaign. Galloway may have felt more at home.londonpubman said:
Would be the biggest shock since 1832 possibly since 1066.noisywinter said:Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in
1 -
Bankers leaving Frankfurt in droves?BigRich said:
Good,StuartDickson said:The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:
“Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.
City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.
Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”
Now there is nobody who can argue that we need to keep the MIFID 2 anti competatative and costly regulations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=MiFID_II&redirect=no
P.S. the use of the expression 'completely cut off' indicates such a strong bias that they cant accept that City of London finical sector has been growing since Brexit Vote,
0 -
Totally off topic, congratulations to plucky Belgium. They are leading the EU vaccination pack right now, with 76.2% of adults having had at least one dose, and 42.3% double dosed.0
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1066 was more of a turnaround akin to GE 2017.kle4 said:
1066 was a notably brutal election campaign. Galloway may have felt more at home.londonpubman said:
Would be the biggest shock since 1832 possibly since 1066.noisywinter said:Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in
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Please tell me that's not yourself in the photos?rcs1000 said:
Ah...Charles said:
Thanks (and @alex_)
For the record, I think it's Teresa May who's up for the NATO job, not Theresa May.0 -
Wonder if there's a direct correlation between Covid deaths/numbers and vaccine take-up?rcs1000 said:Totally off topic, congratulations to plucky Belgium. They are leading the EU vaccination pack right now, with 76.2% of adults having had at least one dose, and 42.3% double dosed.
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God, I hope not. She promised me our sessions were private.BigRich said:
Please tell me that's not yourself in the photos?rcs1000 said:
Ah...Charles said:
Thanks (and @alex_)
For the record, I think it's Teresa May who's up for the NATO job, not Theresa May.2 -
Lab maj ~3000-5000.
Why? Turnout. GG made it crystal clear throughout the campaign which other candidate was his main opponent. Many who would otherwise have abstained or even voted Tory must have asked how they could best stick it to GG. Easy question to answer.1 -
Quite probably. If you've had direct experience of the virus among your friends and family, you are less likely to be hesitant.alex_ said:
Wonder if there's a direct correlation between Covid deaths/numbers and vaccine take-up?rcs1000 said:Totally off topic, congratulations to plucky Belgium. They are leading the EU vaccination pack right now, with 76.2% of adults having had at least one dose, and 42.3% double dosed.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
NEW: Govt is pressing to end free Covid tests for asymptomatic people, & shift to employers footing the bill.
Race is on to build up private provision of testing, amid govt concerns over “eye-watering” multi-billion pound bill for lateral flow devices
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1410715550385328143?s=201 -
I feel unsafer already. Putin would be laughing hard enough to foul himself.dixiedean said:
May is going to run NATO, or some such rumoured madness.rcs1000 said:
Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
2 -
As Our Genial Host has pointed out, since 1989 the LDs have only missed one by-election where they started in second place to the Tories, which was Henley in 2008, probably because Cameron had just become leader and his seat was almost next door.BigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)1 -
On a C&A type swing, it would fall. It also had a very similar Leave/Remain split to C&A.BigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
It'd certainly be close.1 -
Top tip for your town security - encourage Pacific Islander rugby players to move in.
My town was blessed a few ayears ago by the arrival of part of the Vunipola clan. Not only have they tranformed our rugby club (and won two promotions), they've made the town feel safer. It's like having the friendliest but most ferocious looking bouncers in the world strolling our streets.
I sometimes see them training at the rugby club when I'm walking the dog. I think even the youngest two who are teenagers have thighs bigger than my waist and biceps bigger than my thighs (I am quite skinny!)
On topic, I think the Tories are more likely to win, but think Labour were always value. Kim Leadbeater has a pretty near unique story and attachment to the seat for a candidate. She seems a decent sort, if not really suited to this sort of rough and tumble. I reckon that the Galloway team attacks on her and Labour will have encouraged her voters to get out and vote.1 -
I'm sure I read somewhere that Maidenhead is estimated to be the constituency with more people who voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2019 (or maybe 2017, I can remember) than any other.BigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
I'd honestly give the LDs a very fair shot in it. The main thing helping the Tories would be no risk on complacency after C&A, but it's really fertile territory for the LDs.1 -
I'm not sure she has the 'people skills' for such a position.NickPalmer said:
It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
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Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?kle4 said:
That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?BigRich said:
That's ridicules,kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.
Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.
No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.0 -
Heritage Party
£41.00
Halted
Jayda Fransen (Ind)
£41.00
Halted
Labour
-£118.91
I think I left my phone on my car roof so funds will be going to a new one ><0 -
0
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Oh, okay... just the complete opposite of what they were saying before polls closed.
"BBC Newsnight
@BBCNewsnight
“They are feeling very gloomy”.
Political Editor
@nicholaswatt
has the latest on the mood in the Labour Party after polls close in the Batley and Spen by-election.
#Newsnight |
@KirstyWark"
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/14107151842058076210 -
I know this isn't what you mean, but if we got rid of the rule for which side of the road you had to drive on we'd risk chaos. Sometimes rules are administration rather than restriction.Anabobazina said:
Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?kle4 said:
That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?BigRich said:
That's ridicules,kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.
Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.
No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.0 -
This made me chuckle.
0 -
A bigger than expected turnout would be bad news for the Tories . Galloway’s main message which is to force Starmer to resign could backfire and could be helping to turnout Labour voters.0
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Betfair sudden move
Con 1.22
Lab 50 -
The Labour operation on the ground today could have been getting a decent response, but already scuppered by postals....Quincel said:
The fog of war of election nights cracks me up every time. No actual information available but a huge desire for knowledge leads to rumours swirling spectacularly.isam said:Who knows???
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Lol, sure, but as far as I am aware even the COVID rules don’t include traffic regulation (well, I mean they might well do, I lost track long, long ago!)Quincel said:
I know this isn't what you mean, but if we got rid of the rule for which side of the road you had to drive on we'd risk chaos. Sometimes rules are administration rather than restriction.Anabobazina said:
Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?kle4 said:
That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?BigRich said:
That's ridicules,kle4 said:
People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.alex_ said:
Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.kle4 said:
They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).BigRich said:
If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!Floater said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.
Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.
No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.0 -
That might be looking at the postals, which apparently were counted from 1030 onwards - the timing fits.MikeL said:Betfair sudden move
Con 1.22
Lab 50 -
Opposite I reckon. If the 70pc is correct, my read on this is that Galloway won’t win but he’s probably garnered a lot of votes from the Muslim community. Labour’s hope there seems to be that Muslim women have secretly voted for Kim L but I think it’s more a hope than rooted in concreteness.nico679 said:A bigger than expected turnout would be bad news for the Tories . Galloway’s main message which is to force Starmer to resign could backfire and could be helping to turnout Labour voters.
The only way I think Labour could win with that turnout is that the Right wing vote is being split heavily between the Tories and the others, and Labour comes through the middle. It’s a small chance though.0 -
Who on earth came up with the idea of letting Theresa May run NATO ?
True, NATO is fading into obsolescence.
And this is exactly the kind of appointment that will ensure everyone will forget all about it.0 -
we still dont know the results tonight, but:Andy_JS said:
As Our Genial Host has pointed out, since 1989 the LDs have only missed one by-election where they started in second place to the Tories, which was Henley in 2008, probably because Cameron had just become leader and his seat was almost next door.BigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
If con can beat Lab in Hartlepool, and at least run Lab close tonight, but Con aren't that strong indeed are beatable by LD, then what does that say about Lab, a faded brand? that is now beaten by an at best medioca Con.1 -
That makes sense to meproblem with Starmer in the north is not his support for Remain, but the role he played to get Corbyn to support 2nd ref. People haven't forgotten that. https://t.co/VKWTz4IeXi
— Wolfgang Munchau (@EuroBriefing) June 29, 20210 -
She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keenNickPalmer said:
It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.another_richard said:
Maidenhead byelection ?Sean_F said:If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
1 -
The wildest scenario would be if he could somehow rejoin the Labour party and lead the coup against Starmer, he could become Leader of the Opposition.RochdalePioneers said:70% says Galloway has mobilised all kinds of non-voters to turn out. As awful as he is it will be piss funny if he wins this
2 -
Here in Oxfordshire we do "Lib Dems - supporting (n) for the Green Party in Bogsworth-on-Thames"...kle4 said:
Do they make "Lib Dems: Standing here to demonstrate we are our own party and not automatic allies to anyone, but we don't mind if you vote for someone else on this occasion to stop the government from winning" posters?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've absolutely ruled out a Lib Dem gain here.kle4 said:
We've ruled out void election?DecrepiterJohnL said:OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.
...so: yes?
On topic: the Tories are going to win B&S. Unfortunately. Is Sunil still here? There was a whole bunch of Spen stations once: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_New_Line1 -
Based on the odds post poll close in c and a the betting market appears not to have a figging clueNickPalmer said:
That might be looking at the postals, which apparently were counted from 1030 onwards - the timing fits.MikeL said:Betfair sudden move
Con 1.22
Lab 51 -
"George Galloway Retweeted
Aaron Bastani
@AaronBastani
.
@nicholaswatt
saying Labour feel they’ve fallen short.
If true that’s a remarkable result. There was barely any appetite for the Tories and Labour ran a really strong local candidate. Says a LOT about national party."
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/14107231594021150760
