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As we head to the Batley and Spen count a reminder of the last two general elections here – politica

13

Comments

  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Right, I'm going to bed, If I wake up overnight I may check back in, but have fun waiting. :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561


    Who on earth came up with the idea of letting Theresa May run NATO ?

    True, NATO is fading into obsolescence.

    And this is exactly the kind of appointment that will ensure everyone will forget all about it.

    Well, until NATO is at war with both Russia and China by Christmas!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    MrEd said:

    nico679 said:

    A bigger than expected turnout would be bad news for the Tories . Galloway’s main message which is to force Starmer to resign could backfire and could be helping to turnout Labour voters.

    Opposite I reckon. If the 70pc is correct, my read on this is that Galloway won’t win but he’s probably garnered a lot of votes from the Muslim community. Labour’s hope there seems to be that Muslim women have secretly voted for Kim L but I think it’s more a hope than rooted in concreteness.

    The only way I think Labour could win with that turnout is that the Right wing vote is being split heavily between the Tories and the others, and Labour comes through the middle. It’s a small chance though.
    I'm happy to sell 70 as the turnout.

    Heck, I'll sell 66 as the turnout.

    £100 a point. Any takers?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Boris is ridding himself of a huge liability. He'll be delighted.

    That is how these grossly incompetent people end up in top jobs (cf Ursula vdL)

    Probably far better for the Tories that Theresa May is in Brussels in charge of Allied Command Operations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited July 2021

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?

    Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.

    No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
    Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?
    I've already done so in terms of changing plans and preparations, and I was also specific regarding thinking about local government more than businesses, so I certainly am not bothering again.

    I really don't know what is controversial about the view that the government is not being inherently unreasonable in giving people some time to prepare for the change in legal rules, particularly when there may be updated guidance encouraging things that many people will want to adhere to. We don't yet know what they may recommend as voluntary action, why is it unreasonable that everyone have a few days or whatever to understand that and decide what they should do? Several weeks too much time? Sure, but that's different from losing our shit because they give some notice of forthcoming changes before they come into effect.

    I never said any such disruption would be very high, and in fact I was pretty clear that I think they could just do it immediately and the benefits would outweigh any disruption, so I am on the 'just open up' side, but I think it is pretty weird to object to the idea that changing rules with no notice causes no disruption whatsoever.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    MikeL said:

    Betfair sudden move

    Con 1.22
    Lab 5

    from what?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    "Will there be a leadership challenge if Labour loses Batley and Spen?
    Sienna Rodgers"

    https://labourlist.org/2021/07/will-there-be-a-leadership-challenge-if-labour-loses-batley-and-spen/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Cameron was rumoured to potentially be in line for the NATO job several years ago, I think it is just something that is part of our politics now, as we speculate about what former PMs might get up to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921


    Who on earth came up with the idea of letting Theresa May run NATO ?

    True, NATO is fading into obsolescence.

    And this is exactly the kind of appointment that will ensure everyone will forget all about it.

    Well, until NATO is at war with both Russia and China by Christmas!
    It might be at war with Russia it wouldn't be with China as no NATO nations border the latter, if we are at war with China we would likely be in WW3 with Japan, S Korea, India and Australia involved too
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,149

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Boris is ridding himself of a huge liability. He'll be delighted.

    That is how these grossly incompetent people end up in top jobs (cf Ursula vdL)

    Probably far better for the Tories that Theresa May is in Brussels in charge of Allied Command Operations.
    Ursula VDL had a father who was a prominent politician, and has always been on the inside track.

    And was hoicked through setting aside some normal scrutiny procedures etc.

    And the support of Mutti Merkel.
  • Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    I'm not sure she has the 'people skills' for such a position.
    Might work in unexpected ways. Some unpleasant world leaders might laugh so much that it induces a coronary.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Boris is ridding himself of a huge liability. He'll be delighted.

    That is how these grossly incompetent people end up in top jobs (cf Ursula vdL)

    Probably far better for the Tories that Theresa May is in Brussels in charge of Allied Command Operations.
    Ursula VDL had a father who was a prominent politician, and has always been on the inside track.

    And was hoicked through setting aside some normal scrutiny procedures etc.

    And the support of Mutti Merkel.
    I thought Merkel said she was useless, and that's why she was evicted from Mutti's cabinet?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    70% says Galloway has mobilised all kinds of non-voters to turn out. As awful as he is it will be piss funny if he wins this

    The wildest scenario would be if he could somehow rejoin the Labour party and lead the coup against Starmer, he could become Leader of the Opposition.
    That is the stuff of nightmares
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    William Hague would be a much better choice for NATO
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?

    Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.

    No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
    Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?
    I've already done so in terms of changing plans and preparations, and I was also specific regarding thinking about local government more than businesses, so I certainly am not bothering again.

    I really don't know what is controversial about the view that the government is not being inherently unreasonable in giving people some time to prepare for the change in legal rules, particularly when there may be updated guidance encouraging things that many people will want to adhere to. We don't yet know what they may recommend as voluntary action, why is it unreasonable that everyone have a few days or whatever to understand that and decide what they should do? Several weeks too much time? Sure, but that's different from losing our shit because they give some notice of forthcoming changes before they come into effect.

    I never said any such disruption would be very high, and in fact I was pretty clear that I think they could just do it immediately and the benefits would outweigh any disruption, so I am on the 'just open up' side, but I think it is pretty weird to object to the idea that changing rules with no notice causes no disruption whatsoever.
    An example of which would be?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    HYUFD said:


    Who on earth came up with the idea of letting Theresa May run NATO ?

    True, NATO is fading into obsolescence.

    And this is exactly the kind of appointment that will ensure everyone will forget all about it.

    Well, until NATO is at war with both Russia and China by Christmas!
    It might be at war with Russia it wouldn't be with China as no NATO nations border the latter, if we are at war with China we would likely be in WW3 with Japan, S Korea, India and Australia involved too
    You are ignoring that Theresa May would do something like recognise Hong Kong as a member of NATO!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Tic tac has a new marketing strategy

    https://twitter.com/TicTacUSA/status/1410708877792907267
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Boris is ridding himself of a huge liability. He'll be delighted.

    That is how these grossly incompetent people end up in top jobs (cf Ursula vdL)

    Probably far better for the Tories that Theresa May is in Brussels in charge of Allied Command Operations.
    Ursula VDL had a father who was a prominent politician, and has always been on the inside track.

    And was hoicked through setting aside some normal scrutiny procedures etc.

    And the support of Mutti Merkel.
    I thought Merkel said she was useless, and that's why she was evicted from Mutti's cabinet?
    It took Merkel 14 years to realise she was useless and needed to be evicted from Cabinet?

    If true it's the kind of comment criticising someone else that only works if it is also self criticism for keeping them there for so long.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    Labour hold in Islington but 16% swing to Greens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    problem with Starmer in the north is not his support for Remain, but the role he played to get Corbyn to support 2nd ref. People haven't forgotten that. https://t.co/VKWTz4IeXi

    — Wolfgang Munchau (@EuroBriefing) June 29, 2021
    That makes sense to me

    That point plays in many more constituencies than B&S.

    Constituencies Labour has to win back. The leaflets write themselves in 2023/4 if Starmer is still LOTO.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,149
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Boris is ridding himself of a huge liability. He'll be delighted.

    That is how these grossly incompetent people end up in top jobs (cf Ursula vdL)

    Probably far better for the Tories that Theresa May is in Brussels in charge of Allied Command Operations.
    Ursula VDL had a father who was a prominent politician, and has always been on the inside track.

    And was hoicked through setting aside some normal scrutiny procedures etc.

    And the support of Mutti Merkel.
    I thought Merkel said she was useless, and that's why she was evicted from Mutti's cabinet?
    Quite possibly that as well.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706

    MikeL said:

    Betfair sudden move

    Con 1.22
    Lab 5

    from what?
    Lab had been around 3.5.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,149
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair sudden move

    Con 1.22
    Lab 5

    from what?
    Lab had been around 3.5.
    Now back in to 4.5.

    Labour win klaxon !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Boris is ridding himself of a huge liability. He'll be delighted.

    That is how these grossly incompetent people end up in top jobs (cf Ursula vdL)

    Probably far better for the Tories that Theresa May is in Brussels in charge of Allied Command Operations.
    Ursula VDL had a father who was a prominent politician, and has always been on the inside track.

    And was hoicked through setting aside some normal scrutiny procedures etc.

    And the support of Mutti Merkel.
    I thought Merkel said she was useless, and that's why she was evicted from Mutti's cabinet?
    It took Merkel 14 years to realise she was useless and needed to be evicted from Cabinet?

    If true it's the kind of comment criticising someone else that only works if it is also self criticism for keeping them there for so long.
    Wasn't she elected as a Deputy Leader of the CDU, and kinda had to get a cabinet position? (I may be completely wrong: this is just my top of the head remembering.)
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    Lib Dem gain in by election - in Elmbridge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited July 2021

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?

    Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.

    No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
    Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?
    I've already done so in terms of changing plans and preparations, and I was also specific regarding thinking about local government more than businesses, so I certainly am not bothering again.

    I really don't know what is controversial about the view that the government is not being inherently unreasonable in giving people some time to prepare for the change in legal rules, particularly when there may be updated guidance encouraging things that many people will want to adhere to. We don't yet know what they may recommend as voluntary action, why is it unreasonable that everyone have a few days or whatever to understand that and decide what they should do? Several weeks too much time? Sure, but that's different from losing our shit because they give some notice of forthcoming changes before they come into effect.

    I never said any such disruption would be very high, and in fact I was pretty clear that I think they could just do it immediately and the benefits would outweigh any disruption, so I am on the 'just open up' side, but I think it is pretty weird to object to the idea that changing rules with no notice causes no disruption whatsoever.
    An example of which would be?
    Since I have given example of preparatory and adminsitrative disruption, how about you instead answer what is unreasonable about the government giving people some time to plan for, an an example, what they will do in respect of guidance that has been suggested, but we don't know what will be in it yet? I suppose it takes no time to plan for slimmed down voluntary arrangements, if that is what someone wanted to do in response to government encouragement.

    For heaven's sake, there's a difference between 'no' disruption and 'some' disruption, the latter being an inevitability of changing rules. What is hard to understand about that?

    Any such disruption would be minimal and well worth it to open up sooner in my opinion, but I think it is intellectually dishonest to pretend there's no disruption at all to changing plans and preparations due to an immediate change rather than giving a few days notice. Some people are acting like if you announce a change overnight it wouldn't cause some confusion when people started arguing about what they needed to do in the morning.

    Pleasant by-election night to all.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited July 2021
    Postal votes always favour the Tories and people shouldn’t underestimate the loathing many Labour voters have for Galloway . If turnout is high that could be both a pro and anti Galloway vote and what reason do Tory voters have to turn out in high numbers .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in by election - in Elmbridge.

    Dominic Raab's constituency I think.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040
    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in by election - in Elmbridge.

    This is astonishing. The Conservatives had over 900 majority in May this year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Cameron was rumoured to potentially be in line for the NATO job several years ago, I think it is just something that is part of our politics now, as we speculate about what former PMs might get up to.
    Being Ex PM is a pretty miserable existence. No one wants you.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    "EXCLUSIVE: Voters think Starmer should go if Labour loses Batley and Spen by-election, poll finds

    'Of those surveyed, 35% of voters think Keir Starmer should quit as Labour leader, compared to 28% who think he should stay on.'"

    https://leftfootforward.org/2021/07/exclusive-voters-think-starmer-should-go-if-labour-loses-batley-and-spen-by-election-poll-finds/
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 224
    There's no way turnout is 70%.

    No way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
    Cameron was rumoured to potentially be in line for the NATO job several years ago, I think it is just something that is part of our politics now, as we speculate about what former PMs might get up to.
    Being Ex PM is a pretty miserable existence...IF....No one wants you.

    Nobody was very keen on Brown or May, other some speaking.

    But Blair and Cameron, plenty of demand...I think in the case of Cameron, perhaps it might have been better if there wasn't such demand as it rather got him in a spot of hot water.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928
    Nunu3 said:

    There's no way turnout is 70%.

    No way.

    Yeah, where are those rumours coming from?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    slade said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in by election - in Elmbridge.

    This is astonishing. The Conservatives had over 900 majority in May this year.
    LDs go back to your constituencies and prepare for government! 👍
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    I've lost my phone, going to be unpersoned from everywhere for a bit ><
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in by election - in Elmbridge.

    Dominic Raab's constituency I think.
    That's @JohnO country.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    Not sure about Sputnik, but I heard Sinovac is under review.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in by election - in Elmbridge.

    Dominic Raab's constituency I think.
    That's @JohnO country.
    The East Midlands might be the Tories strongest region at the next election.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894

    William Hague would be a much better choice for NATO

    William Hague was wrong about pretty much everything. Theresa May, on the other hand, is 64 years old, which is older than the past few Nato general secretaries. I am chalking this up to silly season speculation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair sudden move

    Con 1.22
    Lab 5

    from what?
    Lab had been around 3.5.
    Thanks Mike
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,149

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Up to 5 million.

    That assumes that 66 million of us are going abroad this summer.
    It also assumes that all 5 million doses were given to different people.

    Likely?

    Yes - it's an issue. But it's about the EMA getting it's Rs in gear.#

    It's also shitty media being shitty.

    I think the accusations of "colonialism" from African countries might encourage them.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
    The SII one is called Covishield, not Vaxzevria.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
    AFAIK, Vaxzevria is the brand name for European made one. Covishield is the Indian made one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    Andy_JS said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem gain in by election - in Elmbridge.

    Dominic Raab's constituency I think.
    That's @JohnO country.
    It’s Cobham & Downside, which is proposed to be moved away from Esher & Walton (Raab) in the boundary changes.

    What’s interesting is that I had lunch in Cobham on Thursday. I didn’t see any signs for polling stations.

    If anyone on here is in the area, the Plough Inn at Cobham is very nice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    edited July 2021

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    Wait: I thought that the AZ doses from India didn't end up getting imported (because the Indians needed them)?

    Re Sputnik, it has not been approved in the EU.

    Edit to add: I think Sputnik was widely used in Hungary, but not elsewhere. Largely because the QC on the doses sent was pretty poor.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    nico679 said:

    Postal votes always favour the Tories and people shouldn’t underestimate the loathing many Labour voters have for Galloway . If turnout is high that could be both a pro and anti Galloway vote and what reason do Tory voters have to turn out in high numbers .

    Your guess is as good as anyone's. The Conservative campaign has been largely conducted by phone and online. Who knows what they have been telling voters?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    Wait: I thought that the AZ doses from India didn't end up getting imported (because the Indians needed them)?

    Re Sputnik, it has not been approved in the EU.
    The UK bought 5 million of them, and had another order for an addition 5 million. India went oh shit, wait, hold on, I think we are going to them, after the UK already had received the first order, and it was the second order that never made it (and the beginning of the slow down of the vaccine roll out).
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    MattW said:

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Up to 5 million.

    That assumes that 66 million of us are going abroad this summer.
    It also assumes that all 5 million doses were given to different people.

    Likely?

    Yes - it's an issue. But it's about the EMA getting it's Rs in gear.#

    It's also shitty media being shitty.

    I think the accusations of "colonialism" from African countries might encourage them.

    The EMA can’t approve a vaccine unless they’re asked to do so . It’s not their fault if approval hasn’t been requested.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    "The River Spen, known locally as Spen Beck, in West Yorkshire, England is a tributary of the River Calder. It rises north of Cleckheaton, runs through Liversedge and flows into the Calder to the south of Dewsbury at Ravensthorpe. The average rainfall for the river valley of between 600–1000mm per annum when combined with the steep narrow river channel, makes the Spen susceptible to regular flooding."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Spen
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
    AFAIK, Vaxzevria is the brand name for European made one. Covishield is the Indian made one.
    Interestingly, Germany and Spain just approved Covishield today - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1/europe-nations-approve-india-covishield-vaccine
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    Pro_Rata said:

    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    I'm fairly sure that's nonsense.
    Absolutely.
    Maybe, but as TSE says it's from a seasoned election reporter, and in the afternoon the noises on declaration time went from, "if it's really close it might be as late as 5am" to, 'nope, it's 5am, we reckon'.
    It was nonsense. 70% was postal vote turnout, not overall turnout.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
    AFAIK, Vaxzevria is the brand name for European made one. Covishield is the Indian made one.
    Interestingly, Germany and Spain just approved Covishield today - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1/europe-nations-approve-india-covishield-vaccine
    9 countries in the EU say its ok...So the Telegraph report isn't (fully) correct. Also, how long are the rest going to hold out, if the likes of Germany say its ok.....Well France might, as mini Trump will do anything to be a tw@t about the quasi effective vaccine.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    RobD said:

    Nunu3 said:

    There's no way turnout is 70%.

    No way.

    Yeah, where are those rumours coming from?
    In fact, why aren't there more rumours? We have:

    * The local democracy reporter saying Labour activists are optimstic but shadow Ministers not (er, right)
    * Ditto claiming a 70% turnout (what?)
    * Two Tories suggest they might be just ahead (Hmm)

    And that's it, and they've been counting for 90 minutes. The people in the room must know a bit more than that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    rcs1000 said:

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
    AFAIK, Vaxzevria is the brand name for European made one. Covishield is the Indian made one.
    Interestingly, Germany and Spain just approved Covishield today - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1/europe-nations-approve-india-covishield-vaccine
    9 countries in the EU say its ok...So the Telegraph report isn't (fully) correct. Also, how long are the rest going to hold out?
    Are they holding out, or have they just not got round to it yet?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    RobD said:

    Nunu3 said:

    There's no way turnout is 70%.

    No way.

    Yeah, where are those rumours coming from?
    In fact, why aren't there more rumours? We have:

    * The local democracy reporter saying Labour activists are optimstic but shadow Ministers not (er, right)
    * Ditto claiming a 70% turnout (what?)
    * Two Tories suggest they might be just ahead (Hmm)

    And that's it, and they've been counting for 90 minutes. The people in the room must know a bit more than that.
    Have they been counting for 90 minutes?
    My understanding was that the count is in Huddersfield.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,149
    nico679 said:

    MattW said:

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Up to 5 million.

    That assumes that 66 million of us are going abroad this summer.
    It also assumes that all 5 million doses were given to different people.

    Likely?

    Yes - it's an issue. But it's about the EMA getting it's Rs in gear.#

    It's also shitty media being shitty.

    I think the accusations of "colonialism" from African countries might encourage them.

    The EMA can’t approve a vaccine unless they’re asked to do so . It’s not their fault if approval hasn’t been requested.
    That's a very fair point that I had not considered.

    They have requested it, but very very recently:
    https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/serum-institute-applies-for-eu-nod-through-drugmaker-astrazeneca-121062901722_1.html

    They have approved AZ plants in 6 countries, it seems.
    https://scroll.in/latest/998775/eu-regulator-to-assess-serum-institute-manufacturing-site-before-approving-covishield
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894

    rcs1000 said:

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
    AFAIK, Vaxzevria is the brand name for European made one. Covishield is the Indian made one.
    Interestingly, Germany and Spain just approved Covishield today - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1/europe-nations-approve-india-covishield-vaccine
    9 countries in the EU say its ok...So the Telegraph report isn't (fully) correct. Also, how long are the rest going to hold out, if the likes of Germany say its ok.....Well France might.
    The general case of vaccine recognition for international travel does need to be addressed though. Aiui the United States has not approved AstraZeneca, for instance. We have not approved the Chinese vaccines. Are we to turn away Chinese tourists?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    RobD said:

    Nunu3 said:

    There's no way turnout is 70%.

    No way.

    Yeah, where are those rumours coming from?
    In fact, why aren't there more rumours? We have:

    * The local democracy reporter saying Labour activists are optimstic but shadow Ministers not (er, right)
    * Ditto claiming a 70% turnout (what?)
    * Two Tories suggest they might be just ahead (Hmm)

    And that's it, and they've been counting for 90 minutes. The people in the room must know a bit more than that.
    It was halted for a long while to deal with some desperate bloke outside, banging the windows and shouting stop the count stop the count in a nasal voice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    Following on from early about the guy going totally OTT about having to "scan his mothers" face for settled status otherwise she would an illegal immigrant and kicked out...

    Not only was he being ridiculously hyperbolic and why if he was so concerned did he wait until a few days before the deadline, the Home Office has said those in the country with indefinite leave to remain (his mother) are not obliged to apply for settled status.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    Labour's nightmare in Stoke-on-Trent continues, as they lose a council seat to the Tories by 10 votes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021

    rcs1000 said:

    Up to five million Britons face being locked out of European holidays because their vaccines are not recognised by the EU's passport scheme, the Telegraph has learned.

    Millions of vaccines administered here do not qualify for the European Union’s vaccine passport scheme, because the shots were manufactured in India and are not yet authorised by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

    The hitch could leave thousands of Britons turned away at EU border crossings when the batch numbers on their vaccines are checked digitally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/eu-vaccine-passport-excludes-5m-britons-given-indian-made-astrazeneca/

    Has the EMA authorised Sputnik and the Chinese vaccines? Because a load of German's went to Russia to jump the queue and in Eastern Europe both have been widely used by a couple of countries.

    My Scottish government vaccination record doesn't have a batch number for the EU to check. It does have the manufacturer as "AstraZeneca AB" and the product as "Vaxzevria", so I don't know whether those vary depending on where the AZ dose was manufactured.
    AFAIK, Vaxzevria is the brand name for European made one. Covishield is the Indian made one.
    Interestingly, Germany and Spain just approved Covishield today - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1/europe-nations-approve-india-covishield-vaccine
    9 countries in the EU say its ok...So the Telegraph report isn't (fully) correct. Also, how long are the rest going to hold out, if the likes of Germany say its ok.....Well France might.
    The general case of vaccine recognition for international travel does need to be addressed though. Aiui the United States has not approved AstraZeneca, for instance. We have not approved the Chinese vaccines. Are we to turn away Chinese tourists?
    Well one of the Chinese vaccines is definitely problematic....but I presume most western countries won't make a scene about it when push comes to shove.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    edited July 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's nightmare in Stoke-on-Trent continues, as they lose a council seat to the Tories by 10 votes.

    Labour have lost vote share in all 4 locals tonight

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410739567762698254?s=19
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited July 2021

    Following on from early about the guy going totally OTT about having to "scan his mothers" face for settled status otherwise she would an illegal immigrant and kicked out...

    Not only was he being ridiculously hyperbolic and why if he was so concerned did he wait until a few days before the deadline, the Home Office has said those in the country with indefinite leave to remain (his mother) are not obliged to apply for settled status.

    AIUI. And I haven't worked in this field for 13 years, but have tried to keep up.
    Indefinite Leave to Remain was a long-winded way of saying settled status or permanent residency.
    You were eligible for all rights and benefits of any citizen. Only drawback being you couldn't be out of the country for more than 2 years continuously.
    After ILR for 12 months, and 5 years residency, was the trigger for a citizenship application.
    This may have changed.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,040

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's nightmare in Stoke-on-Trent continues, as they lose a council seat to the Tories by 10 votes.

    Labour have lost vote share in all 4 locals tonight

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410739567762698254?s=19
    Actually the Lab vote was steady - it was a gain from Independents.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    If CON win Batley and Spen it would be the biggest shock since the Pyramids. CON not counting their chickens. Could still be third behind Kim and Galloway.

    Voters not happy that COVID cases heading to 100,000 a day next week.

    Very scary. Everyone staying at home 😠
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    @BritainElects
    Bush Hill Park (Enfield ) result:

    CON: 55.2% (+15.7)
    LAB: 28.5% (-8.7)
    GRN: 7.6% (-3.2)
    LDEM: 7.3% (-2.3)
    TUSC: 0.9% (+0.9)
    TTIP: 0.5% (+0.5)

    Conservative HOLD.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    @BritainElects
    Bush Hill Park (Enfield ) result:

    CON: 55.2% (+15.7)
    LAB: 28.5% (-8.7)
    GRN: 7.6% (-3.2)
    LDEM: 7.3% (-2.3)
    TUSC: 0.9% (+0.9)
    TTIP: 0.5% (+0.5)

    Conservative HOLD.

    I guess that’s compared with 2018, though the changes look a bit different to what’s on Wikipedia.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    Just bumped into ⁦ @BethRigby at the count. And, yes, we’re 2m apart… #LDReporter

    https://twitter.com/LdrTony/status/1410713745404334083?s=20

    Unlucky sod....2m still too close for my liking when it comes to Beth....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    edited July 2021
    Conservative gain from labour in NE Lincolnshire

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410746708170919938?s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556

    @BritainElects
    Bush Hill Park (Enfield ) result:

    CON: 55.2% (+15.7)
    LAB: 28.5% (-8.7)
    GRN: 7.6% (-3.2)
    LDEM: 7.3% (-2.3)
    TUSC: 0.9% (+0.9)
    TTIP: 0.5% (+0.5)

    Conservative HOLD.

    The demise of the London Conservatives has been greatly exaggerated.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    What's really interesting about that is the votes that went to UKIP last time didn't do much to help the Tory. Would be fascinating to know what the direct swings were between the parties.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Conservative gain from labour in NE Lincolnshire

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410746708170919938?s=19

    I'm amazed Labour has ANYWHERE in NE Lincs still, it is Brexit squared.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    The Blue Wall isn't voting Labour though. The LDs are the beneficiaries.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    The Blue Wall isn't voting Labour though. The LDs are the beneficiaries.
    That's the danger for the Labour Party: they end up ineffectual in the South, and losing in the North - potentially a very unhealthy distribution of votes.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    What's really interesting about that is the votes that went to UKIP last time didn't do much to help the Tory. Would be fascinating to know what the direct swings were between the parties.
    If I where to guess, it would be UKIP to Con, offsetting Con to Lib Dem, but could equally just be change in turnout, or personal vote for popular/unpopular candidates.

    Any updates for the count, or betting markers?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    slade said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's nightmare in Stoke-on-Trent continues, as they lose a council seat to the Tories by 10 votes.

    Labour have lost vote share in all 4 locals tonight

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410739567762698254?s=19
    Actually the Lab vote was steady - it was a gain from Independents.
    Technically it was down by 0.7 points but I take your point that it was almost steady.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    BigRich said:

    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    What's really interesting about that is the votes that went to UKIP last time didn't do much to help the Tory. Would be fascinating to know what the direct swings were between the parties.
    If I where to guess, it would be UKIP to Con, offsetting Con to Lib Dem, but could equally just be change in turnout, or personal vote for popular/unpopular candidates.

    Any updates for the count, or betting markers?
    LibDems increasingly confident.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    What's really interesting about that is the votes that went to UKIP last time didn't do much to help the Tory. Would be fascinating to know what the direct swings were between the parties.
    If I where to guess, it would be UKIP to Con, offsetting Con to Lib Dem, but could equally just be change in turnout, or personal vote for popular/unpopular candidates.

    Any updates for the count, or betting markers?
    LibDems increasingly confident.
    That they've lost their deposit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    There's an astonishing lack of information / gossip about the by-election so far. I don't know whether that's good or bad for any of the parties.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    The Blue Wall isn't voting Labour though. The LDs are the beneficiaries.
    That's the danger for the Labour Party: they end up ineffectual in the South, and losing in the North - potentially a very unhealthy distribution of votes.
    Could be very true. But there's also probably a sweet spot for Labour (if Starmer's ratings improve and it gets its act together a bit, but it doesn't need to be Blair 90s level - just "well you don't sound so bad") where it picks off some of the easier 'red wall' seats by virtue of not having Jez and general disgruntlement with a government that has to do its fiscal cleanup work at the back end of a parliament and is disliked by working age voters, makes advances in the south and suburbs, and the Lib Dems make major inroads in the South East and West. As Stephen Bush pointed out, ta big indicator of Lib Dem success in a GE is whether the Labour leader is seen as broadly acceptable by lots of Tory voters, and so if they're annoyed with the government (obviously since 2016, the biggest example of that is liberal Tory remainers), they can happily vote Lib Dem safe in the knowledge they're not going to get a government they can't stand, and might, with a bit of luck, get one that's fairly attentive to them.

    May well not be the case. If Labour carries on tearing itself to shreds it won't be. But hardly implausible, even in a scenario where Starmer's ratings don't tick up that much and the government avoids the worst scandals and pitfalls but just gets gradually seen as not living up to its big promises and as not being very good.

    That doesn't win Labour a majority but it could, on a good night remove most if not all of the Tories'. Which I suspect they'd have taken at any point since December 2019.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    MJW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    We continue the red wall / blue wall divide. 2 nations: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1410734008539836419?s=20

    The Blue Wall isn't voting Labour though. The LDs are the beneficiaries.
    That's the danger for the Labour Party: they end up ineffectual in the South, and losing in the North - potentially a very unhealthy distribution of votes.
    Could be very true. But there's also probably a sweet spot for Labour (if Starmer's ratings improve and it gets its act together a bit, but it doesn't need to be Blair 90s level - just "well you don't sound so bad") where it picks off some of the easier 'red wall' seats by virtue of not having Jez and general disgruntlement with a government that has to do its fiscal cleanup work at the back end of a parliament and is disliked by working age voters, makes advances in the south and suburbs, and the Lib Dems make major inroads in the South East and West. As Stephen Bush pointed out, ta big indicator of Lib Dem success in a GE is whether the Labour leader is seen as broadly acceptable by lots of Tory voters, and so if they're annoyed with the government (obviously since 2016, the biggest example of that is liberal Tory remainers), they can happily vote Lib Dem safe in the knowledge they're not going to get a government they can't stand, and might, with a bit of luck, get one that's fairly attentive to them.

    May well not be the case. If Labour carries on tearing itself to shreds it won't be. But hardly implausible, even in a scenario where Starmer's ratings don't tick up that much and the government avoids the worst scandals and pitfalls but just gets gradually seen as not living up to its big promises and as not being very good.

    That doesn't win Labour a majority but it could, on a good night remove most if not all of the Tories'. Which I suspect they'd have taken at any point since December 2019.
    Good points.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited July 2021
    Batley & Spen turnout was 47.6%.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    MikeL said:

    Batley & Spen turnout was 47.6%.

    Sounds more in line with other By Elections,

    If this has just been announced has it changed the Odds?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited July 2021
    MikeL said:

    Batley & Spen turnout was 47.6%.

    Down 20 points (~1/3 down) on GE. Which is about normal for a by-election.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    MikeL said:

    Batley & Spen turnout was 47.6%.

    Down 20 points (~1/3 down) on GE. Which is about normal for a by-election.
    Down 18.9 points 189/665 28.4% drop closer to a quarter than a third,

    Sorry for being pedantic, I'm getting frustrated as cant sleep because wife is snoring.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    MikeL said:

    Batley & Spen turnout was 47.6%.

    My prediction was 50%. Pretty close on that score.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited July 2021
    Andrew Jones (Con MP for Harrogate) live on Sky - no idea of result, far too close to call.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2021
    Turnout about what you would expect for a by-election in this sort of seat. So NO indicators of outcome.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    edited July 2021
    As above, Labour got 55.5% in 2017. The party hasn't been that high in Hartlepool since 2001.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2021
    We know Labour was fairly active on the ground - do we know anything about the Tories?

    Nick Palmer's posts suggested a fairly comprehensive GOTV op for his party
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    "@siennamarla

    Batley & Spen
    Turnout 47.6%
    Ballots verified 37,786
    Total eligible electorate 79,373

    2:08 AM · Jul 2, 2021"

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1410767423121334277
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928
    edited July 2021
    So much for 70%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,556
    Claim by GG:

    "George Galloway
    @georgegalloway
    Turn-out in our strongest areas was over 70% #BatleyAndSpenByelection
    @WorkersPartyGB"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    NEW: Workers Party campaign says George Galloway has done "better than their wildest dreams" in mixed areas like Heckmondwike.

    They expect Galloway to come second.

    "Keir Starmer's done. He's gone."

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1410773557232218114?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Galloway's campaign manager says he said he expects to him to pull 6k-7k votes ... which would NOT place them second in an election where 37,786 people have voted.

    But, based on 2019 support, 6k-7k votes would certainly be enough to lose Labour the seat.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1410775101272952835?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Who knows how much Team Galloway is bullshitting.....
This discussion has been closed.