Categories
As we head to the Batley and Spen count a reminder of the last two general elections here – politica
As we head to the Batley and Spen count a reminder of the last two general elections here – politicalbetting.com
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
He voted for Brexit but admitted the moment Leave.EU made such a big thing about Galloway backing Brexit was the only time he doubted he could vote for Brexit.
The C&A winnings will still be secure.
The invisibility of the Tory campaign and viciousness of the Galloway/Labour fighting may mean he has revived himself to at least impact the outcome, or perhaps he will remain an irrelevance.
I dare say if he lived in B&S he might know a bit more about the place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW3e_1lZST4
The only real interest here is that if Labour lose then it'll precipitate all sorts of crap. And that's going to be fun!
Only if SKS has the beating of Boris is it good for Labour to win in B&S.
I think (pure guess-work now as I have no local knowledge), Labour will hold B&S. And that is bad for them.
SKS will continue to under-perform.
And Labour, panic-stricken, will finally get rid of him in 2023.
When it will probably be too late.
Fingers crossed to be wrong though.
Keeping him is really the best of a bad set of potions.
They could do with working out what they want to change about the world that isn't about spending more money. I like spending money. But it doesn't make for a coherent political program on its own. So they need to think about what else they're about. At the moment there's nowt.
(Stickers provided to local LibDem candidates with the appropriate party name. Simply apply to the poster as necessary.)
How do the Conservatives lose under these circumstances? Having their wet centrist flank chewed off by a Lib Dem surge, perhaps? Doesn't seem like the kind of seat that represents a big opportunity for the yellows to make converts, given that they're starting from a very low base.
Nice of them to be so concerned about the UK. Although... if they are so worried about the potential for superspreading from Euro finals with lots of spectators, shouldn't they be glad that it is being held in the UK, rather than somewhere on the continental mainland?
Next one Alliance in Lagan Valley?
Seriously, at 10pm on polling night everyone - and I mean everyone - on all the major campaigns was absolutely convinced it had shifted a bit to Labour but the SNP were well ahead. Labour won by 6700 votes.
I think my favourite will always be Bradford West, where the spin went from: 7am: 'yes, we'll win by loads'. 10pm: 'it might be a bit close, but yeah, we'll win'. 2am: 'my god, we've been absolutely smashed'.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1410708399873052679
Labour have plenty of fresh & impressive young female MPs. They need to take a gamble on an Ardern.
I do agree that the leadership is just a part of a larger set of problems that Labour have got.
BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
It'll be interesting if their numbers have overtaken ours by then...
(Add: I see it is not a senior EU politician; it is a committee chair at the EuroParl, who has written to the EP chair, to ask him to lobby UVDL. It's like playing Six Degrees of Separation.)
I wonder how sympathetic EUFA will be, given that EuCo tried to force politics on them a few weeks ago.
I suppose they could ban all the EUFA panjandrums and all EU fans from attending, as we did for Rome.
The scary thing is a lot of it is thanks to the IRA.
That bombing in 1996 really did set up a massive wave of regeneration.
Tory MP who has done the doors in Batley says it is very positive & Hancock has only come up a couple of times this week.
He texts: “I don’t think we are as far ahead as the bookmakers are suggesting, but if I had to stick my neck out.... I’d say we’ll take it by 1500 votes.”
If he could help the Unions sort themselves out a bit that would also be useful. As well as discovering a sense of purpose for the Labour Party and all those other trivial things.
He's the reality.
Ministers are planning to remove all mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July, but national guidance may still encourage caution in high-risk areas such as public transport.
A number of key scientific advisers including England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the government’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, are said to be behind ministers’ plans to lift restrictions, though they have cautioned that the NHS may come under pressure in the winter.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/01/ministers-plan-to-end-social-distancing-in-england-on-19-july
Tory gain for me. Maybe by a few.
I thought that was the Labour line in Chesham & Amersham.
I suspect the LD campaign has concentrated on the Council Wards of past and current strength such as Cleckheaton and perhaps getting into some neighbouring areas in the Spen Valley to build for the next set of local elections.
But it's all part of the fun to play along, like shitting a brick at 3.30 am when X are 5% closer than expected in Nowhere, Iowa.
All I can say with reasonable confidence is that Labour voters (and activists) were highly motivated today. Which isn't really what I expected, and I think that it's partly Kim's personal popularity and partly a sod-off-Galloway/militants reaction.
As I said earlier in the campaign, most Muslims are mild-mannered people who don't want to be represented by loud-mouthed thugs brawling in the street. They might well feel that Labour isn't paying enough attention, and that in our anxiety to get rid of anti-semitism we've forgotten the genuine issues in Palestine. But that doesn't mean they like self-appointed agitators, and in the end they may have decided to vote against them.
And from a reliable source.
Turnout in the #BatleyAndSpenByelection is predicted to be around 70%. That's more than in 2019 (65.5%) and much larger than in 2016 when it was just 25.8% - one of the lowest turnouts for a Parliamentary by-election since 1945. This is the scene at the count. #LDReporter
https://twitter.com/LdrTony/status/1410704595144282114
Which of the Labour party's inner demons will the leader turn to after Batley and Spen? 👼😈
https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1410176286681550855?s=21
Goddamn it #FreeBritney & consider how many non-famous non-rich people must be getting this sort of treatment too...
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1410689761099067399?s=19
Why vote Tory or Lab at a by election when you didn't at a GE?
Have people woken up to the fact that a by-election result can really shake up the political establishment, and getting out there to have an effect?
Or is it the Galloway/anti-Galloway surge?
On 2016, given the circumstances, and no major opposition to the incumbents as a result, I'm not surprised it was awfully low.
Maybe Whitty and Vallance have just realised that time is running out for them to finally get a summer holiday.
Love the analysis up thread. Winning and losing bad for Labour apparently according to the blue sages of Pb. 🤷♀️
I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.
Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
https://twitter.com/jrc1921/status/1410689888547180545/photo/1