Galloway's campaign manager says he said he expects to him to pull 6k-7k votes ... which would NOT place them second in an election where 37,786 people have voted.
But, based on 2019 support, 6k-7k votes would certainly be enough to lose Labour the seat.
Galloway's campaign manager says he said he expects to him to pull 6k-7k votes ... which would NOT place them second in an election where 37,786 people have voted.
But, based on 2019 support, 6k-7k votes would certainly be enough to lose Labour the seat.
Jon Craig saying if bad for Lab tonight then Starmer is in deep trouble and facing a crucial 48 hours - must not bungle his response like he did after Hartlepool.
Probably. I was just looking at GGWP and wondering if I wanted to lay £10 at 100 for an easy pick-up when a more decisive layer grabbed it. I'll leave the £12 at 220.
The Blue Wall isn't voting Labour though. The LDs are the beneficiaries.
That's the danger for the Labour Party: they end up ineffectual in the South, and losing in the North - potentially a very unhealthy distribution of votes.
Could be very true. But there's also probably a sweet spot for Labour (if Starmer's ratings improve and it gets its act together a bit, but it doesn't need to be Blair 90s level - just "well you don't sound so bad") where it picks off some of the easier 'red wall' seats by virtue of not having Jez and general disgruntlement with a government that has to do its fiscal cleanup work at the back end of a parliament and is disliked by working age voters, makes advances in the south and suburbs, and the Lib Dems make major inroads in the South East and West. As Stephen Bush pointed out, ta big indicator of Lib Dem success in a GE is whether the Labour leader is seen as broadly acceptable by lots of Tory voters, and so if they're annoyed with the government (obviously since 2016, the biggest example of that is liberal Tory remainers), they can happily vote Lib Dem safe in the knowledge they're not going to get a government they can't stand, and might, with a bit of luck, get one that's fairly attentive to them.
May well not be the case. If Labour carries on tearing itself to shreds it won't be. But hardly implausible, even in a scenario where Starmer's ratings don't tick up that much and the government avoids the worst scandals and pitfalls but just gets gradually seen as not living up to its big promises and as not being very good.
That doesn't win Labour a majority but it could, on a good night remove most if not all of the Tories'. Which I suspect they'd have taken at any point since December 2019.
Good points.
Except that Starmer not being Corbyn might not be enough to pick up Red Wall seats. Starmer might even be worse.
If we imagine a stereotypical Red Wall voter to be someone who is proud of her class, her culture and her country, what does the posh London lawyer taking the knee offer her? He is even worse than the Venezuela and Palestine-obsessed Jeremy Corbyn. At least he stayed on his feet and would talk to crowds of workers and harangue the government about buses.
She is worried about the decline in the town's (and region's) economy and the lack of prospects for her children. What policy does Kier Starmer propose that might possibly help? Boris at least talks a good game about levelling up.
I don't know how influential Owen Jones is in Labour circles, but he indicated yesterday that he would be calling for a leadership election if Labour loses the by-election.
I don't know how influential Owen Jones is in Labour circles, but he indicated yesterday that he would be calling for a leadership election if Labour loses the by-election.
Britain Elects guy (who also writes for the New Statesman) on his live stream this evening pooh-poohed any talk that Starmer will be going anywhere.
I don't know how influential Owen Jones is in Labour circles, but he indicated yesterday that he would be calling for a leadership election if Labour loses the by-election.
Britain Elects guy (who also writes for the New Statesman) on his live stream this evening pooh-poohed any talk that Starmer will be going anywhere.
He is probably right. The left does not have enough votes to unseat Starmer on its own, and there is no obvious alternative candidate from any wing of the party. Favourite as next Labour leader is Andy Burnham who is not even an MP, and nor is Sadiq Khan.
Even less scientific than our earlier statements but looking at the piles of votes alone our on the ground team are tentatively calling this for Labour
Tom ItsComingHomewood @tomhfh · 22s From where I’m standing I’m not convinced the Labour piles are smaller than the Tory piles.
No offence to Tom Harwood but I don't think he's very experienced at this sort thing. I heard him talking yesterday and he was surprised that at by-elections people sometimes attach posters to lampposts, which is something that's been going on in my area for ages. Clearly he hasn't been to many by-elections before, which isn't surprising since he's only about 25.
Comments
Con 1.18 (1.25 to lay)
Lab 4.5 (6.4 to lay)
GGWP 42 (100 to lay)
The large gaps between back and lay prices, as well as the gap between Labour and Conservative (a 109% book) show what an illiquid market this is.
"All the predictions here are that the Conservatives have won"
Con 1.16/1.17
Lab 6.6/7
May just be in response to Craig.
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1410783163937402881
If we imagine a stereotypical Red Wall voter to be someone who is proud of her class, her culture and her country, what does the posh London lawyer taking the knee offer her? He is even worse than the Venezuela and Palestine-obsessed Jeremy Corbyn. At least he stayed on his feet and would talk to crowds of workers and harangue the government about buses.
She is worried about the decline in the town's (and region's) economy and the lack of prospects for her children. What policy does Kier Starmer propose that might possibly help? Boris at least talks a good game about levelling up.
https://twitter.com/Yorkshire_Party/status/1410791145190432770?s=20
Con 1.3
Lab 4
Edit: make that 2.7 Labour. More (and different) news from the count?
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1410792113193762825?s=20
2.66 just taken.
Con look marginally ahead - but far too close to be sure.
@tomhfh
·
22s
From where I’m standing I’m not convinced the Labour piles are smaller than the Tory piles.
Feels as if Craig is driving Betfair.
"Just had a message that it's tightening with last few bundles"
New thread
UFOs in ‘dogfights with military jets above France’ in 600 sightings, shock report says
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/ufos-dogfights-military-jets-above-24442061