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As we head to the Batley and Spen count a reminder of the last two general elections here – politica

24

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited July 2021
    A radical thought just occurred.
    What are the chances of the Tories coming third?
    All the publicity has been Galloway or Labour. And there has been a big turnout it seems, so including lots of low information voters. The Tories have been anonymous.
    If Labour gets its vote out, and the Woollens go to GG, plus a slice of the Moslem Labour vote, but a slice of the Tory goes Labour to stop George, then...
    Feel free to ridicule this idea.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Labour out to 4 on Betfair,
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I won’t be staying up for tonight. Part of the reason the markets really shifted within minutes in Chesham at approx 1am was the sheer size of the Lib Dem piles making it obvious there were heading for a convincing win.

    Everything in Batley points to a much closer race in which case I’m not sure we’ll get anything more than straws in the wind until the very small hours.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    I don't understand why the Tories odds are so short. Traditional labour seat, labour have local candidate with unique back story, hancock scandal, no real sign Tories trying thay hard, their own candidate runs a mile from any coverage....

    Doesn't really scream nailed on win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    High turnout usually means all tribes turned out.

    Love the analysis up thread. Winning and losing bad for Labour apparently according to the blue sages of Pb. 🤷‍♀️

    Always the case. 'Good election to lose' and all that, I bet someone claimed the Tories winning so big in 2019 was bad for them in the long run.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    Betfair moves back to the Tories. Now 1.25 vs 3.8 for Labour.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.

    And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?

    (In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153
    LAB have won in Batley and Spen. But please don't rely on this for betting purposes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    dixiedean said:

    A radical thought just occurred.
    What are the chances of the Tories coming third?
    All the publicity has been Galloway or Labour. And there has been a big turnout it seems, so including lots of low information voters.
    Feel free to ridicule this idea.

    I don't see how Cons gets less than 35%, let alone the 30% required to come third.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,786
    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    I'm fairly sure that's nonsense.
    Absolutely.
    Maybe, but as TSE says it's from a seasoned election reporter, and in the afternoon the noises on declaration time went from, "if it's really close it might be as late as 5am" to, 'nope, it's 5am, we reckon'.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    isam said:

    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


    We shall soon see...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    isam said:

    20% of the electorate voted by post. I presume this is a lot? Who does this help? GG??


    No, that's not quite true, that's just applications, from experience not every application is sent back.
    Wouldn't everyone who was previously registered for a postal vote be counted as 'postal votes applied for' ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,287
    I had a flutter on Gorgeous George just in case something unexpected happened, fully expecting to lose my money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.

    And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?

    (In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)
    One thing people will want to square away is what, if anything, to do regarding what may be 'encouraged' in guidance. I am thinking about local government for instance - where meetings were being held, and how they would operate, is heavily dependent on the rules and subject to specific dates, and will be affected by guidance, and local gov can move slowly.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


    We shall soon see...
    Have we had the census bet? There’s a problem in that Scotland haven’t done theirs or something I think
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981

    isam said:

    20% of the electorate voted by post. I presume this is a lot? Who does this help? GG??


    No, that's not quite true, that's just applications, from experience not every application is sent back.
    Wouldn't everyone who was previously registered for a postal vote be counted as 'postal votes applied for' ?
    Yup.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    isam said:

    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


    Here is my position:
    Not life changing amounts!

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I don’t think so. A very insightful Californian asked in the replies why she didn’t have a blue tick
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited July 2021
    kle4 said:

    The important thing is if Labour do win, that the reason be acknowledged. Not a decline in Boris's popularity, or Hancock, or Keir being popular.

    It would be NickPalmer wot won it.

    In good old football analogy parlance, it appears he's been literally everywhere on the pitch today. A colossus. A tower of strength. A bundle of non stop energy.

    Absolutely not sat on the end of a phone line in Surrey somewhere.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781

    I don't understand why the Tories odds are so short. Traditional labour seat, labour have local candidate with unique back story, hancock scandal, no real sign Tories trying thay hard, their own candidate runs a mile from any coverage....

    Doesn't really scream nailed on win.

    1. Labour is a bit of a mess.
    2. This is a Northern seat, and the Conservatives are outperforming in the North.
    3. This seat voted heavily Leave, and Starmer is very much a Remainer.
    4. There is a large Heavy Woolen/BXP/UKIP vote to squeeze, and the Conservatives have done very well squeezing these votes recently (see Hartlepool).
    5. The Labour vote total is very dependent on Muslim voters, and George Galloway is standing (and has a proven track record of successfully courting these voters).
    6. Labour's candidate is a bit wet.

    In normal times, the Conservatives would get 42-43%, Labour would get 50%, and the dregs would get 7-8%.

    Galloway shakes things up. If he takes more than 7-8% of the Labour vote (and I expect he takes 15%), then I can't see how the Conservatives don't win.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Cashed out on B&S

    Green across the Board

    Good Night
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.

    And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?

    (In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)
    One thing people will want to square away is what, if anything, to do regarding what may be 'encouraged' in guidance. I am thinking about local government for instance - where meetings were being held, and how they would operate, is heavily dependent on the rules and subject to specific dates, and will be affected by guidance, and local gov can move slowly.
    Even when/if the restrictions are gone on the 19th I expect many places to keep them, just not legally enforceable. Pretty sure my uni will try to keep masks going.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited July 2021
    dixiedean said:

    A radical thought just occurred.
    What are the chances of the Tories coming third?
    All the publicity has been Galloway or Labour. And there has been a big turnout it seems, so including lots of low information voters. The Tories have been anonymous.
    If Labour gets its vote out, and the Woollens go to GG, plus a slice of the Moslem Labour vote, but a slice of the Tory goes Labour to stop George, then...
    Feel free to ridicule this idea.

    I would like to make clear that I don't believe my speculation for a minute.
    Am still predicting a Tory win.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


    Here is my position:
    Not life changing amounts!

    Got out!

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited July 2021
    Snip
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    The fughlogh scheme is now being tapered off, so if your jab was fugloued 17 months ago and you have been waiting to be allowed back, to work in a night club, you are now stuck for a month, this is silly, just let those who wish to open.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    The important thing is if Labour do win, that the reason be acknowledged. Not a decline in Boris's popularity, or Hancock, or Keir being popular.

    It would be NickPalmer wot won it.

    In good old football analogy parlance, it appears he's been literally everywhere on the pitch today. A colossus. A tower of strength. A bundle of non stop energy.

    Absolutely not sat on the end of a phone line in Surrey somewhere.
    He’s been in the equivalent of Stockley Park!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


    We shall soon see...
    Have we had the census bet? There’s a problem in that Scotland haven’t done theirs or something I think
    Can I suggest we stick with the bet, and we can have a partial settle when England and Wales come out, we can then adjust it as Scotland and Northern Ireland come in.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


    We shall soon see...
    Have we had the census bet? There’s a problem in that Scotland haven’t done theirs or something I think
    Can I suggest we stick with the bet, and we can have a partial settle when England and Wales come out, we can then adjust it as Scotland and Northern Ireland come in.
    Yes but we will be waiting a long time, possibly two years!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't understand why the Tories odds are so short. Traditional labour seat, labour have local candidate with unique back story, hancock scandal, no real sign Tories trying thay hard, their own candidate runs a mile from any coverage....

    Doesn't really scream nailed on win.

    1. Labour is a bit of a mess.
    2. This is a Northern seat, and the Conservatives are outperforming in the North.
    3. This seat voted heavily Leave, and Starmer is very much a Remainer.
    4. There is a large Heavy Woolen/BXP/UKIP vote to squeeze, and the Conservatives have done very well squeezing these votes recently (see Hartlepool).
    5. The Labour vote total is very dependent on Muslim voters, and George Galloway is standing (and has a proven track record of successfully courting these voters).
    6. Labour's candidate is a bit wet.

    In normal times, the Conservatives would get 42-43%, Labour would get 50%, and the dregs would get 7-8%.

    Galloway shakes things up. If he takes more than 7-8% of the Labour vote (and I expect he takes 15%), then I can't see how the Conservatives don't win.
    I don’t think the Lib Dem’s will get as much as 7-8%

    😇
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    Watching Newsnight. Labour are going to get absolutely spanked overnight, aren't they.

    Craig Whittaker MP from Calder Valley is rather unpleasant however.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


    We shall soon see...
    Have we had the census bet? There’s a problem in that Scotland haven’t done theirs or something I think
    Can I suggest we stick with the bet, and we can have a partial settle when England and Wales come out, we can then adjust it as Scotland and Northern Ireland come in.
    Yes but we will be waiting a long time, possibly two years!
    Yes, but we'll settle 90% of the money in a year, and the remaining 10% in two years. Rolling settlement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    But i don't see why it would be particularly disruptive. Why would an event/meeting planned for between now and 19th July be disrupted by the Government announcing lifting of restrictions before the 19th July.

    And surely a business planning to open on the 19th July would much prefer the certainty of the Government having actually lifted the restrictions (early) than announcing that they intend to do so? (but who knows what calamity could befall us before then)?

    (In practice i suspect they just don't want pubs to be rammed before the football's finished...)
    One thing people will want to square away is what, if anything, to do regarding what may be 'encouraged' in guidance. I am thinking about local government for instance - where meetings were being held, and how they would operate, is heavily dependent on the rules and subject to specific dates, and will be affected by guidance, and local gov can move slowly.
    Even when/if the restrictions are gone on the 19th I expect many places to keep them, just not legally enforceable. Pretty sure my uni will try to keep masks going.
    Indeed, they will not be alone I am sure. I am curious what reaction there will be as places seek to do that, as people refusing to comply will get more traction than anti-vaxxer protestors.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:

    “Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.

    City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.

    Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Charles said:

    Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200

    I love the comment “it’s very dangerous to make predictions before all the votes have been counted”

    Surely once all the votes have been counted you’ll know the answer so don’t need to make predictions?
    Once of the mysteries of UK elections is quite how often the "predictions" are miles out even after the votes are counted. And even after the candidates have been notified of the provisional results!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    The important thing is if Labour do win, that the reason be acknowledged. Not a decline in Boris's popularity, or Hancock, or Keir being popular.

    It would be NickPalmer wot won it.

    In good old football analogy parlance, it appears he's been literally everywhere on the pitch today. A colossus. A tower of strength. A bundle of non stop energy.

    Absolutely not sat on the end of a phone line in Surrey somewhere.
    He’s been in the equivalent of Stockley Park!
    Hopefully not in full kit!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781

    The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:

    “Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.

    City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.

    Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”

    And yet the City of London is still there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Charles said:

    Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200

    I love the comment “it’s very dangerous to make predictions before all the votes have been counted”

    Surely once all the votes have been counted you’ll know the answer so don’t need to make predictions?
    Depends how firm a democracy you have - plenty of places the counting of the votes is no guarantee of knowing the outcome.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200

    Expectation management?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    70% says Galloway has mobilised all kinds of non-voters to turn out. As awful as he is it will be piss funny if he wins this
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in

    Would be the biggest shock since 1832 possibly since 1066.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    Theories about Theresa May going off to head NATO.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    If May gets NATO
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I’m not sure if anyone else believes Owen Jones really wants Kim Leadbeater to win despite his supposed graft on the campaign trail.

    Expect the first “I wanted it to work out with Starmer but it’s time for him to go” article in the Guardian by Friday lunchtime.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    edited July 2021
    Who knows???


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    Theories about Theresa May going off to head NATO.
    NATO actually want her?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    May is going to run NATO, or some such rumoured madness.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781

    70% says Galloway has mobilised all kinds of non-voters to turn out. As awful as he is it will be piss funny if he wins this

    Forecasts for by-election turnout are usually miles too high.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?

    Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.

    No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    If May gets NATO
    Ah...

    Thanks (and @alex_)

    For the record, I think it's Teresa May who's up for the NATO job, not Theresa May.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:

    “Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.

    City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.

    Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”

    Good,

    Now there is nobody who can argue that we need to keep the MIFID 2 anti competatative and costly regulations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=MiFID_II&redirect=no

    P.S. the use of the expression 'completely cut off' indicates such a strong bias that they cant accept that City of London finical sector has been growing since Brexit Vote,
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    BigRich said:

    Labour source on Batley and Spen by-election: we have fallen short

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1410715991579955200

    Expectation management?

    No. Realisation of a comprehensive Johnson victory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in

    Would be the biggest shock since 1832 possibly since 1066.
    1066 was a notably brutal election campaign. Galloway may have felt more at home.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    BigRich said:

    The Joel Hills tweet is more interesting:

    “Chancellor confirms that UK has given up trying to secure greater access to EU markets for financial services firms.

    City of London has been largely cut off since Brexit completed at end of last year.

    Sunak says deal on equivalence “has not happened”.”

    Good,

    Now there is nobody who can argue that we need to keep the MIFID 2 anti competatative and costly regulations.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=MiFID_II&redirect=no

    P.S. the use of the expression 'completely cut off' indicates such a strong bias that they cant accept that City of London finical sector has been growing since Brexit Vote,
    Bankers leaving Frankfurt in droves? ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    Totally off topic, congratulations to plucky Belgium. They are leading the EU vaccination pack right now, with 76.2% of adults having had at least one dose, and 42.3% double dosed.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    Has to be said, if the Tories win it's an impressive achievement, even if it's a bit baked in

    Would be the biggest shock since 1832 possibly since 1066.
    1066 was a notably brutal election campaign. Galloway may have felt more at home.
    1066 was more of a turnaround akin to GE 2017.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    If May gets NATO
    Ah...

    Thanks (and @alex_)

    For the record, I think it's Teresa May who's up for the NATO job, not Theresa May.
    Please tell me that's not yourself in the photos?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    isam said:

    Who knows???


    The fog of war of election nights cracks me up every time. No actual information available but a huge desire for knowledge leads to rumours swirling spectacularly.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off topic, congratulations to plucky Belgium. They are leading the EU vaccination pack right now, with 76.2% of adults having had at least one dose, and 42.3% double dosed.

    Wonder if there's a direct correlation between Covid deaths/numbers and vaccine take-up?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    If May gets NATO
    Ah...

    Thanks (and @alex_)

    For the record, I think it's Teresa May who's up for the NATO job, not Theresa May.
    Please tell me that's not yourself in the photos?
    God, I hope not. She promised me our sessions were private.
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    Lab maj ~3000-5000.
    Why? Turnout. GG made it crystal clear throughout the campaign which other candidate was his main opponent. Many who would otherwise have abstained or even voted Tory must have asked how they could best stick it to GG. Easy question to answer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off topic, congratulations to plucky Belgium. They are leading the EU vaccination pack right now, with 76.2% of adults having had at least one dose, and 42.3% double dosed.

    Wonder if there's a direct correlation between Covid deaths/numbers and vaccine take-up?
    Quite probably. If you've had direct experience of the virus among your friends and family, you are less likely to be hesitant.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    NEW: Govt is pressing to end free Covid tests for asymptomatic people, & shift to employers footing the bill.

    Race is on to build up private provision of testing, amid govt concerns over “eye-watering” multi-billion pound bill for lateral flow devices

    https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1410715550385328143?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Wait... there's going to be a by-election in Maidenhead?
    May is going to run NATO, or some such rumoured madness.
    I feel unsafer already. Putin would be laughing hard enough to foul himself.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,287
    BigRich said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    As Our Genial Host has pointed out, since 1989 the LDs have only missed one by-election where they started in second place to the Tories, which was Henley in 2008, probably because Cameron had just become leader and his seat was almost next door.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    BigRich said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    On a C&A type swing, it would fall. It also had a very similar Leave/Remain split to C&A.

    It'd certainly be close.
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188
    Top tip for your town security - encourage Pacific Islander rugby players to move in.

    My town was blessed a few ayears ago by the arrival of part of the Vunipola clan. Not only have they tranformed our rugby club (and won two promotions), they've made the town feel safer. It's like having the friendliest but most ferocious looking bouncers in the world strolling our streets.

    I sometimes see them training at the rugby club when I'm walking the dog. I think even the youngest two who are teenagers have thighs bigger than my waist and biceps bigger than my thighs (I am quite skinny!)

    On topic, I think the Tories are more likely to win, but think Labour were always value. Kim Leadbeater has a pretty near unique story and attachment to the seat for a candidate. She seems a decent sort, if not really suited to this sort of rough and tumble. I reckon that the Galloway team attacks on her and Labour will have encouraged her voters to get out and vote.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    BigRich said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    I'm sure I read somewhere that Maidenhead is estimated to be the constituency with more people who voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2019 (or maybe 2017, I can remember) than any other.

    I'd honestly give the LDs a very fair shot in it. The main thing helping the Tories would be no risk on complacency after C&A, but it's really fertile territory for the LDs.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    I'm not sure she has the 'people skills' for such a position.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?

    Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.

    No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
    Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2021
    Heritage Party
    £41.00
    Halted
    Jayda Fransen (Ind)
    £41.00
    Halted
    Labour
    -£118.91

    I think I left my phone on my car roof so funds will be going to a new one ><
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,287
    edited July 2021
    Oh, okay... just the complete opposite of what they were saying before polls closed.


    "BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “They are feeling very gloomy”.

    Political Editor
    @nicholaswatt
    has the latest on the mood in the Labour Party after polls close in the Batley and Spen by-election.

    #Newsnight |
    @KirstyWark"

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1410715184205807621
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?

    Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.

    No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
    Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?
    I know this isn't what you mean, but if we got rid of the rule for which side of the road you had to drive on we'd risk chaos. Sometimes rules are administration rather than restriction.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    This made me chuckle.



  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,542
    A bigger than expected turnout would be bad news for the Tories . Galloway’s main message which is to force Starmer to resign could backfire and could be helping to turnout Labour voters.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Betfair sudden move

    Con 1.22
    Lab 5
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Who knows???


    The fog of war of election nights cracks me up every time. No actual information available but a huge desire for knowledge leads to rumours swirling spectacularly.
    The Labour operation on the ground today could have been getting a decent response, but already scuppered by postals....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    kle4 said:

    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
    That's ridicules,

    Any plan you have made, since the delay was announced on the 13th would still be legal and doable. but if you wanted to take off your mask in a taxi you could, or if you can open you night club then do that, and so on.

    That's the point, for people planning for things in that period - do they just stick with the current plan, make adjustments to account for guidance, get rid of all things as legally they could?

    Sure, they could do any those things, it's which they decide, and making that decision requires a little time.

    No it is not very disruptive, I'd say if you are not legally required to do it then don't, and that's pretty clear, but I think it is a bit ridiculous to suggest there's no potential disruption for some people - it's just worth any potential disruption, which is something different.
    Eh? Can you give me an example of how it could be disruptive to have fewer rules?
    I know this isn't what you mean, but if we got rid of the rule for which side of the road you had to drive on we'd risk chaos. Sometimes rules are administration rather than restriction.
    Lol, sure, but as far as I am aware even the COVID rules don’t include traffic regulation (well, I mean they might well do, I lost track long, long ago!)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    MikeL said:

    Betfair sudden move

    Con 1.22
    Lab 5

    That might be looking at the postals, which apparently were counted from 1030 onwards - the timing fits.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    nico679 said:

    A bigger than expected turnout would be bad news for the Tories . Galloway’s main message which is to force Starmer to resign could backfire and could be helping to turnout Labour voters.

    Opposite I reckon. If the 70pc is correct, my read on this is that Galloway won’t win but he’s probably garnered a lot of votes from the Muslim community. Labour’s hope there seems to be that Muslim women have secretly voted for Kim L but I think it’s more a hope than rooted in concreteness.

    The only way I think Labour could win with that turnout is that the Right wing vote is being split heavily between the Tories and the others, and Labour comes through the middle. It’s a small chance though.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Who on earth came up with the idea of letting Theresa May run NATO ?

    True, NATO is fading into obsolescence.

    And this is exactly the kind of appointment that will ensure everyone will forget all about it.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Andy_JS said:

    BigRich said:

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    She had an 19,000 magoraty, but with LD in second place, could it flip?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    As Our Genial Host has pointed out, since 1989 the LDs have only missed one by-election where they started in second place to the Tories, which was Henley in 2008, probably because Cameron had just become leader and his seat was almost next door.
    we still dont know the results tonight, but:

    If con can beat Lab in Hartlepool, and at least run Lab close tonight, but Con aren't that strong indeed are beatable by LD, then what does that say about Lab, a faded brand? that is now beaten by an at best medioca Con.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    problem with Starmer in the north is not his support for Remain, but the role he played to get Corbyn to support 2nd ref. People haven't forgotten that. https://t.co/VKWTz4IeXi

    — Wolfgang Munchau (@EuroBriefing) June 29, 2021
    That makes sense to me
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Sean_F said:

    If the Conservatives win tonight, but lose a subsequent by-election in Maidenhead, you'd probably have to go back to the late 19th century to find the equivalent.

    Maidenhead byelection ?
    It's rumoured that Mrs May is heading to NATO.
    She backed Biden and Macron and Trudeau had an amicable relationship with her so not impossible but not sure if Boris would be keen
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    70% says Galloway has mobilised all kinds of non-voters to turn out. As awful as he is it will be piss funny if he wins this

    The wildest scenario would be if he could somehow rejoin the Labour party and lead the coup against Starmer, he could become Leader of the Opposition.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited July 2021
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    We've ruled out void election?
    I've absolutely ruled out a Lib Dem gain here.
    Do they make "Lib Dems: Standing here to demonstrate we are our own party and not automatic allies to anyone, but we don't mind if you vote for someone else on this occasion to stop the government from winning" posters?
    Here in Oxfordshire we do "Lib Dems - supporting (n) for the Green Party in Bogsworth-on-Thames"...

    ...so: yes?

    On topic: the Tories are going to win B&S. Unfortunately. Is Sunil still here? There was a whole bunch of Spen stations once: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_New_Line
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249

    MikeL said:

    Betfair sudden move

    Con 1.22
    Lab 5

    That might be looking at the postals, which apparently were counted from 1030 onwards - the timing fits.
    Based on the odds post poll close in c and a the betting market appears not to have a figging clue
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,287
    "George Galloway Retweeted
    Aaron Bastani
    @AaronBastani
    .
    @nicholaswatt
    saying Labour feel they’ve fallen short.

    If true that’s a remarkable result. There was barely any appetite for the Tories and Labour ran a really strong local candidate. Says a LOT about national party."

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1410723159402115076
This discussion has been closed.