Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

As we head to the Batley and Spen count a reminder of the last two general elections here – politica

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 1 in General
imageAs we head to the Batley and Spen count a reminder of the last two general elections here – politicalbetting.com

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    edited July 1
    Labour might just pull it off.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475
    I’m expecting a labour hold by about 1500 votes now. Labour seem to have taken the gloves off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    Or they may not.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 568
    I predict an electoral disaster for Labour as they hold the seat surprisingly comfortably taking the heat off SKS.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Labour might just pull it off.

    What time is the exit poll due?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    I'm predicting a Tory win by about 2,000 votes. (Posted my prediction on here last night and haven't changed it).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    Depends if there is a big Heavy Woollens --> Can't Be Arsed Party swing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    Talking to a former Tory constituency chairman from North Yorkshire today he said if he lived in B&S he'd vote Labour to stop Galloway.

    He voted for Brexit but admitted the moment Leave.EU made such a big thing about Galloway backing Brexit was the only time he doubted he could vote for Brexit.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,738
    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420
    Seventh, - Like the party for green socialism?
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817
    edited July 1

    Or they may not.

    The truthful answer is that nobody knows what votes GG will get and his vote probably determines who wins.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    Well my money is on Labour, but not huge amounts.

    The C&A winnings will still be secure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    We've ruled out void election?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    I really want George Galloway to be crushed and humiliated in this election, even more so than I wanted Mark 'Pigdog Traitor' Reckless to lose in 2015.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    So, on past performance, that means the Greens come through the middle to a stunning victory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    kle4 said:

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    We've ruled out void election?
    I've absolutely ruled out a Lib Dem gain here.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    eek said:

    Or they may not.

    The truthful answer is that nobody knows what votes GG will get and his vote probably determines who wins.
    And GG appears to be vain enough to be satisfied with that. But suppose Conservatives win by less than GG's vote. Galloway will no doubt present this as proof that Labour needs to embrace whatever the hell it is he is offering. That strikes me as utterly insane. So what should Labour do in that situation?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,243
    How many recounts do we expect Galloway to demand?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    eek said:

    Or they may not.

    The truthful answer is that nobody knows what votes GG will get and his vote probably determines who wins.
    I think it's worth reflecting that he has come across as a busted flush in his most recent electoral escapades, to the point his perennial candidate status seemed on the level of a joke candidate.

    The invisibility of the Tory campaign and viciousness of the Galloway/Labour fighting may mean he has revived himself to at least impact the outcome, or perhaps he will remain an irrelevance.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420

    Talking to a former Tory constituency chairman from North Yorkshire today he said if he lived in B&S he'd vote Labour to stop Galloway.

    He voted for Brexit but admitted the moment Leave.EU made such a big thing about Galloway backing Brexit was the only time he doubted he could vote for Brexit.

    Have we had any reports on here form people in the Tory campaign? sometimes HYDUF gets involved, but think he has been busy recently.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,253

    I really want George Galloway to be crushed and humiliated in this election, even more so than I wanted Mark 'Pigdog Traitor' Reckless to lose in 2015.

    You should be hoping he doesnt so labour come third and get rid of the useless pizzle they have as leader
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    kle4 said:

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    We've ruled out void election?
    I've absolutely ruled out a Lib Dem gain here.
    Do they make "Lib Dems: Standing here to demonstrate we are our own party and not automatic allies to anyone, but we don't mind if you vote for someone else on this occasion to stop the government from winning" posters?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873

    Talking to a former Tory constituency chairman from North Yorkshire today he said if he lived in B&S he'd vote Labour to stop Galloway.

    He voted for Brexit but admitted the moment Leave.EU made such a big thing about Galloway backing Brexit was the only time he doubted he could vote for Brexit.

    Seems strange given that Galloway cannot beat Labour and even if he could couldn't then beat the Conservative.

    I dare say if he lived in B&S he might know a bit more about the place.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,738
    Batley and Spen is in Yorkshire. God's own county. Home of the deep fried battered chip butty, served with chips.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW3e_1lZST4
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    I'm all green but 'not Tory' is my best result.

    The only real interest here is that if Labour lose then it'll precipitate all sorts of crap. And that's going to be fun!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Taz said:

    I’m expecting a labour hold by about 1500 votes now. Labour seem to have taken the gloves off.

    I'm going Tory by around that amount.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    Or they may not.

    The truthful answer is that nobody knows what votes GG will get and his vote probably determines who wins.
    I think it's worth reflecting that he has come across as a busted flush in his most recent electoral escapades, to the point his perennial candidate status seemed on the level of a joke candidate.

    The invisibility of the Tory campaign and viciousness of the Galloway/Labour fighting may mean he has revived himself to at least impact the outcome, or perhaps he will remain an irrelevance.
    How hard has he campaigned?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    Big question is what has happened to the 6,500 votes for the Heaven Woollen District Independents, who aren't standing this time.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,017
    dodrade said:

    I predict an electoral disaster for Labour as they hold the seat surprisingly comfortably taking the heat off SKS.

    Amusing.

    Only if SKS has the beating of Boris is it good for Labour to win in B&S.

    I think (pure guess-work now as I have no local knowledge), Labour will hold B&S. And that is bad for them.

    SKS will continue to under-perform.

    And Labour, panic-stricken, will finally get rid of him in 2023.

    When it will probably be too late.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,782
    Nah, I'm sticking with my final prediction of the Tories for this one, but sub 1000.

    Fingers crossed to be wrong though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260

    I really want George Galloway to be crushed and humiliated in this election, even more so than I wanted Mark 'Pigdog Traitor' Reckless to lose in 2015.

    Remember his appearance on Celebrity Big Brother? (I don't, but that's thanks to extensive and expensive therapy.) I don't think Galloway is capable of being humiliated.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817
    edited July 1

    dodrade said:

    I predict an electoral disaster for Labour as they hold the seat surprisingly comfortably taking the heat off SKS.

    Amusing.

    Only if SKS has the beating of Boris is it good for Labour to win in B&S.

    I think (pure guess-work now as I have no local knowledge), Labour will hold B&S. And that is bad for them.

    SKS will continue to under-perform.

    And Labour, panic-stricken, will finally get rid of him in 2023.

    When it will probably be too late.
    Labour have no one to replace SKS with, who is in a position to win a leadership election and could solve the party's issues

    Keeping him is really the best of a bad set of potions.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,782
    And if the Yorkshire Party were to come third ahead of Galloway, I'd laugh my arse off.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,243

    eek said:

    Or they may not.

    The truthful answer is that nobody knows what votes GG will get and his vote probably determines who wins.
    And GG appears to be vain enough to be satisfied with that. But suppose Conservatives win by less than GG's vote. Galloway will no doubt present this as proof that Labour needs to embrace whatever the hell it is he is offering. That strikes me as utterly insane. So what should Labour do in that situation?
    They take whatever bits of Galloway's platform that aren't vile and destructive as their own - and fight remorselessly against the rest.

    They could do with working out what they want to change about the world that isn't about spending more money. I like spending money. But it doesn't make for a coherent political program on its own. So they need to think about what else they're about. At the moment there's nowt.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    We've ruled out void election?
    I've absolutely ruled out a Lib Dem gain here.
    Do they make "Lib Dems: Standing here to demonstrate we are our own party and not automatic allies to anyone, but we don't mind if you vote for someone else on this occasion to stop the government from winning" posters?
    "(Labour) Winning Here!"

    (Stickers provided to local LibDem candidates with the appropriate party name. Simply apply to the poster as necessary.)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    I still think it's going Tory, but frankly you'd do better consulting an astrologer for all the good my predictions have been over the years. It's simply the fact that Labour is defending a modest majority, the BXP and Heavy Woollen votes are up for grabs and seem more likely to go Tory than Labour, and whatever support Galloway gets seems more likely to come from Labour than the Tories.

    How do the Conservatives lose under these circumstances? Having their wet centrist flank chewed off by a Lib Dem surge, perhaps? Doesn't seem like the kind of seat that represents a big opportunity for the yellows to make converts, given that they're starting from a very low base.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    edited July 1
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/eu-demands-wembley-stripped-of-euro-2020-final-delta-covid-outbreak-150842403.html

    Nice of them to be so concerned about the UK. Although... if they are so worried about the potential for superspreading from Euro finals with lots of spectators, shouldn't they be glad that it is being held in the UK, rather than somewhere on the continental mainland?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    Labour might just pull it off.

    O/T but the centre of Manchester really is impressive, these days, i was up there earlier, doing research.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    If Labour win then the last four by elections will have been won by: Conservative, SNP, LD, Labour.

    Next one Alliance in Lagan Valley?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,782
    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    I love the Party officials briefing the press on the feeling on the ground, what turnout means, and the press breathlessly reporting it. Having seen this process play out from the inside for the Glenrothes by-election in 2008…. Literally anything could happen tonight. Go to bed.

    Seriously, at 10pm on polling night everyone - and I mean everyone - on all the major campaigns was absolutely convinced it had shifted a bit to Labour but the SNP were well ahead. Labour won by 6700 votes.

    I think my favourite will always be Bradford West, where the spin went from: 7am: 'yes, we'll win by loads'. 10pm: 'it might be a bit close, but yeah, we'll win'. 2am: 'my god, we've been absolutely smashed'.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1410708399873052679
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,017
    eek said:

    dodrade said:

    I predict an electoral disaster for Labour as they hold the seat surprisingly comfortably taking the heat off SKS.

    Amusing.

    Only if SKS has the beating of Boris is it good for Labour to win in B&S.

    I think (pure guess-work now as I have no local knowledge), Labour will hold B&S. And that is bad for them.

    SKS will continue to under-perform.

    And Labour, panic-stricken, will finally get rid of him in 2023.

    When it will probably be too late.
    Labour have no one to replace SKS with, who is in a position to win a leadership election and could solve the party's issues

    Keeping him is really the best of a bad set of potions.
    I am not convinced by the "no one to replace SKS" argument.

    Labour have plenty of fresh & impressive young female MPs. They need to take a gamble on an Ardern.

    I do agree that the leadership is just a part of a larger set of problems that Labour have got.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    edited July 1
    alex_ said:

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/eu-demands-wembley-stripped-of-euro-2020-final-delta-covid-outbreak-150842403.html

    Nice of them to be so concerned about the UK. Although... if they are so worried about the potential for superspreading from Euro finals with lots of spectators, shouldn't they be glad that it is being held in the UK, rather than somewhere on the continental mainland?

    Where is the proposal to take this?

    It'll be interesting if their numbers have overtaken ours by then...

    (Add: I see it is not a senior EU politician; it is a committee chair at the EuroParl, who has written to the EP chair, to ask him to lobby UVDL. It's like playing Six Degrees of Separation.)

    I wonder how sympathetic EUFA will be, given that EuCo tried to force politics on them a few weeks ago.

    I suppose they could ban all the EUFA panjandrums and all EU fans from attending, as we did for Rome.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    Sean_F said:

    Labour might just pull it off.

    O/T but the centre of Manchester really is impressive, these days, i was up there earlier, doing research.
    It is, as I said.

    The scary thing is a lot of it is thanks to the IRA.

    That bombing in 1996 really did set up a massive wave of regeneration.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1410691963867877376

    Tory MP who has done the doors in Batley says it is very positive & Hancock has only come up a couple of times this week.

    He texts: “I don’t think we are as far ahead as the bookmakers are suggesting, but if I had to stick my neck out.... I’d say we’ll take it by 1500 votes.”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    Interesting to see what measures others seek to do voluntarily, and the reaction to them if they do attempt that.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    Don't believe that for a minute. That would be almost unprecedented for a by-election, wouldn't it?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,243
    eek said:

    dodrade said:

    I predict an electoral disaster for Labour as they hold the seat surprisingly comfortably taking the heat off SKS.

    Amusing.

    Only if SKS has the beating of Boris is it good for Labour to win in B&S.

    I think (pure guess-work now as I have no local knowledge), Labour will hold B&S. And that is bad for them.

    SKS will continue to under-perform.

    And Labour, panic-stricken, will finally get rid of him in 2023.

    When it will probably be too late.
    Labour have no one to replace SKS with, who is in a position to win a leadership election and could solve the party's issues

    Keeping him is really the best of a bad set of potions.
    One of the things that Starmer might be able to achieve, if he does survive to the next general election, is to ensure that Labour have a better set of candidates for the next leadership election, and a better set of candidates for the new intake of MPs.

    If he could help the Unions sort themselves out a bit that would also be useful. As well as discovering a sense of purpose for the Labour Party and all those other trivial things.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,738

    I still think it's going Tory, but frankly you'd do better consulting an astrologer for all the good my predictions have been over the years. It's simply the fact that Labour is defending a modest majority, the BXP and Heavy Woollen votes are up for grabs and seem more likely to go Tory than Labour, and whatever support Galloway gets seems more likely to come from Labour than the Tories.

    How do the Conservatives lose under these circumstances? Having their wet centrist flank chewed off by a Lib Dem surge, perhaps? Doesn't seem like the kind of seat that represents a big opportunity for the yellows to make converts, given that they're starting from a very low base.

    Question is, are Heavy Woollen voters (in 2019) putting their Xs in the blue box? You say yes, and that is the consensus, but it seems to me they are more likely to vote Labour. Brexit is no longer an issue, and these are people who did not want to vote Conservative last time even while voting pro-Brexit (and their vote looks like it could have come straight from Labour, if you compare with 2017 in the header).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    I really want George Galloway to be crushed and humiliated in this election, even more so than I wanted Mark 'Pigdog Traitor' Reckless to lose in 2015.

    Remember his appearance on Celebrity Big Brother? (I don't, but that's thanks to extensive and expensive therapy.) I don't think Galloway is capable of being humiliated.
    I don't mind if he doesn't feel the humiliation, so long as the result is humiliating. It's those who are incapable of humiliation succeeding that is frustrating.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    edited July 1

    Sean_F said:

    Labour might just pull it off.

    O/T but the centre of Manchester really is impressive, these days, i was up there earlier, doing research.
    It is, as I said.

    The scary thing is a lot of it is thanks to the IRA.

    That bombing in 1996 really did set up a massive wave of regeneration.
    The old buildings are very fine, too, although I imagine they've been massively cleaned up since 1996. The Victorians did create some very fine city centres in the North.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,343
    Looks like it could go to penalties tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    See, he's spreading bullshit again for the likes.

    He's the reality.

    Ministers are planning to remove all mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July, but national guidance may still encourage caution in high-risk areas such as public transport.

    A number of key scientific advisers including England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the government’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, are said to be behind ministers’ plans to lift restrictions, though they have cautioned that the NHS may come under pressure in the winter.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/01/ministers-plan-to-end-social-distancing-in-england-on-19-july
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    That is one heck of a by election turnout. Tories sitting on their hands theory can't have happened. Not sure what this portends.
    Tory gain for me. Maybe by a few.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    eek said:

    dodrade said:

    I predict an electoral disaster for Labour as they hold the seat surprisingly comfortably taking the heat off SKS.

    Amusing.

    Only if SKS has the beating of Boris is it good for Labour to win in B&S.

    I think (pure guess-work now as I have no local knowledge), Labour will hold B&S. And that is bad for them.

    SKS will continue to under-perform.

    And Labour, panic-stricken, will finally get rid of him in 2023.

    When it will probably be too late.
    Labour have no one to replace SKS with, who is in a position to win a leadership election and could solve the party's issues

    Keeping him is really the best of a bad set of potions.
    I am not convinced by the "no one to replace SKS" argument.

    Labour have plenty of fresh & impressive young female MPs. They need to take a gamble on an Ardern.

    I do agree that the leadership is just a part of a larger set of problems that Labour have got.
    But who, aside from Rosina Allin-Khan, who is pretty impressive who else is there and with a degree of name recognition ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    We've ruled out void election?
    I've absolutely ruled out a Lib Dem gain here.
    Do they make "Lib Dems: Standing here to demonstrate we are our own party and not automatic allies to anyone, but we don't mind if you vote for someone else on this occasion to stop the government from winning" posters?
    Has that been the LD line?

    I thought that was the Labour line in Chesham & Amersham.

    I suspect the LD campaign has concentrated on the Council Wards of past and current strength such as Cleckheaton and perhaps getting into some neighbouring areas in the Spen Valley to build for the next set of local elections.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817
    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    That's an awfully big turnout for a by-election. If true I think Labour may have it thanks to an anti-GG vote (which is hilarious and very ironic if true)
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    See, he's spreading bullshit again for the likes.

    He's the reality.

    Ministers are planning to remove all mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July, but national guidance may still encourage caution in high-risk areas such as public transport.

    A number of key scientific advisers including England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the government’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, are said to be behind ministers’ plans to lift restrictions, though they have cautioned that the NHS may come under pressure in the winter.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/01/ministers-plan-to-end-social-distancing-in-england-on-19-july
    What's the difference?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited July 1

    I love the Party officials briefing the press on the feeling on the ground, what turnout means, and the press breathlessly reporting it. Having seen this process play out from the inside for the Glenrothes by-election in 2008…. Literally anything could happen tonight. Go to bed.

    Seriously, at 10pm on polling night everyone - and I mean everyone - on all the major campaigns was absolutely convinced it had shifted a bit to Labour but the SNP were well ahead. Labour won by 6700 votes.

    I think my favourite will always be Bradford West, where the spin went from: 7am: 'yes, we'll win by loads'. 10pm: 'it might be a bit close, but yeah, we'll win'. 2am: 'my god, we've been absolutely smashed'.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1410708399873052679

    Yeah, people don't know jack squat. 'Sources' from various sides propose every option under the sun. Same thing with private polling leaks, which for some reason we sometimes take as being more likely to be correct, when there's no reason to think parties are better able to tell what is going on than we are, or official polls suggest. Sometimes they get an accurate picture, sometimes not.

    But it's all part of the fun to play along, like shitting a brick at 3.30 am when X are 5% closer than expected in Nowhere, Iowa.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,435
    FPT
    All I can say with reasonable confidence is that Labour voters (and activists) were highly motivated today. Which isn't really what I expected, and I think that it's partly Kim's personal popularity and partly a sod-off-Galloway/militants reaction.

    As I said earlier in the campaign, most Muslims are mild-mannered people who don't want to be represented by loud-mouthed thugs brawling in the street. They might well feel that Labour isn't paying enough attention, and that in our anxiety to get rid of anti-semitism we've forgotten the genuine issues in Palestine. But that doesn't mean they like self-appointed agitators, and in the end they may have decided to vote against them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    WOW!

    And from a reliable source.

    Turnout in the #BatleyAndSpenByelection is predicted to be around 70%. That's more than in 2019 (65.5%) and much larger than in 2016 when it was just 25.8% - one of the lowest turnouts for a Parliamentary by-election since 1945. This is the scene at the count. #LDReporter

    https://twitter.com/LdrTony/status/1410704595144282114
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    OK so we've narrowed it down to one of two results. That's progress.

    We've ruled out void election?
    I've absolutely ruled out a Lib Dem gain here.
    Do they make "Lib Dems: Standing here to demonstrate we are our own party and not automatic allies to anyone, but we don't mind if you vote for someone else on this occasion to stop the government from winning" posters?
    Has that been the LD line?

    I thought that was the Labour line in Chesham & Amersham.

    I suspect the LD campaign has concentrated on the Council Wards of past and current strength such as Cleckheaton and perhaps getting into some neighbouring areas in the Spen Valley to build for the next set of local elections.
    Honestly I don't know what the LD line has been, they might have been fighting it as hard as they possibly can for all I know. But I doubt they'd lose much sleep if some of their voters went tactical to help build a narrative of government defeats (even though only the last one will have been a Con loss).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    This is the most exciting evening since... two weeks ago.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    Keir Starmer ft. Tony B & Jezza - Guilty Conscience

    Which of the Labour party's inner demons will the leader turn to after Batley and Spen? 👼😈

    https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1410176286681550855?s=21
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 1
    Forget the byelection, Big Dom tackling the big issues....

    Goddamn it #FreeBritney & consider how many non-famous non-rich people must be getting this sort of treatment too...

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1410689761099067399?s=19
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    Yes, it’s been clear for a while now that positive tests aren’t translating into hospitalisations. It’s time to move into the post vaccine phase.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420
    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    Presumably that's just a guess?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    I'm fairly sure that's nonsense.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    "To aid business planning" or some such b*ll*x. As if somehow business if told "you can open tomorrow" are somehow forced to "open tomorrow".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478

    I still think it's going Tory, but frankly you'd do better consulting an astrologer for all the good my predictions have been over the years. It's simply the fact that Labour is defending a modest majority, the BXP and Heavy Woollen votes are up for grabs and seem more likely to go Tory than Labour, and whatever support Galloway gets seems more likely to come from Labour than the Tories.

    How do the Conservatives lose under these circumstances? Having their wet centrist flank chewed off by a Lib Dem surge, perhaps? Doesn't seem like the kind of seat that represents a big opportunity for the yellows to make converts, given that they're starting from a very low base.

    Question is, are Heavy Woollen voters (in 2019) putting their Xs in the blue box? You say yes, and that is the consensus, but it seems to me they are more likely to vote Labour. Brexit is no longer an issue, and these are people who did not want to vote Conservative last time even while voting pro-Brexit (and their vote looks like it could have come straight from Labour, if you compare with 2017 in the header).
    I wouldn't be surprised if GG isnt winning many of the Woollens. They are NOTA's after all.
    Why vote Tory or Lab at a by election when you didn't at a GE?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited July 1

    WOW!

    And from a reliable source.

    Turnout in the #BatleyAndSpenByelection is predicted to be around 70%. That's more than in 2019 (65.5%) and much larger than in 2016 when it was just 25.8% - one of the lowest turnouts for a Parliamentary by-election since 1945. This is the scene at the count. #LDReporter

    https://twitter.com/LdrTony/status/1410704595144282114

    That's fantastic - so much for people staying at home. If true - far too early for them to really have a clue.

    Have people woken up to the fact that a by-election result can really shake up the political establishment, and getting out there to have an effect?

    Or is it the Galloway/anti-Galloway surge?

    On 2016, given the circumstances, and no major opposition to the incumbents as a result, I'm not surprised it was awfully low.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    edited July 1
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    Awkward for Labour and their "be cautious not reckless, data not dates, listen to the scientists"... policy.

    Maybe Whitty and Vallance have just realised that time is running out for them to finally get a summer holiday.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    See, he's spreading bullshit again for the likes.

    He's the reality.

    Ministers are planning to remove all mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July, but national guidance may still encourage caution in high-risk areas such as public transport.

    A number of key scientific advisers including England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the government’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, are said to be behind ministers’ plans to lift restrictions, though they have cautioned that the NHS may come under pressure in the winter.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/01/ministers-plan-to-end-social-distancing-in-england-on-19-july
    This account is like the Twitter version of the Daily Star. Why do people keep quoting it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    kle4 said:

    WOW!

    And from a reliable source.

    Turnout in the #BatleyAndSpenByelection is predicted to be around 70%. That's more than in 2019 (65.5%) and much larger than in 2016 when it was just 25.8% - one of the lowest turnouts for a Parliamentary by-election since 1945. This is the scene at the count. #LDReporter

    https://twitter.com/LdrTony/status/1410704595144282114

    That's fantastic - so much for people staying at home. If true - far too early for them to really have a clue.

    Have people woken up to the fact that a by-election result can really shake up the political establishment, and getting out there to have an effect?

    Or is it the Galloway/anti-Galloway surge?

    On 2016, given the circumstances, and no major opposition to the incumbents as a result, I'm not surprised it was awfully low.
    I fear a Galloway surge, although the demographics of this seat is nothing like Bradford West.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited July 1
    alex_ said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    Awkward for Labour and their "be cautious not reckless, data not dates, listen to the scientists"... policy

    Labour had a policy on this? I thought it was no different policy to the government, then moan government should have done exactly the same but better.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Andy_JS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    I'm fairly sure that's nonsense.
    Absolutely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,782
    eek said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    That's an awfully big turnout for a by-election. If true I think Labour may have it thanks to an anti-GG vote (which is hilarious and very ironic if true)
    The other titbits from YL is that the ceremonial Lord Mayor (a Conservative) has taken up his right to make the announcement thus demoting the returning officer and that there are16113 postal applications (a little above 20%).
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    edited July 1
    20% of the electorate voted by post. I presume this is a lot? Who does this help? GG??


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    eek said:

    Or they may not.

    The truthful answer is that nobody knows what votes GG will get and his vote probably determines who wins.
    And GG appears to be vain enough to be satisfied with that. But suppose Conservatives win by less than GG's vote. Galloway will no doubt present this as proof that Labour needs to embrace whatever the hell it is he is offering. That strikes me as utterly insane. So what should Labour do in that situation?
    Ignore him
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    isam said:

    Who dies this help? GG??


    The Tories, they are the biggest users of postal votes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,435
    Andy_JS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    I'm fairly sure that's nonsense.
    Would be bad news for Labour if so - we got our vote out, but maybe the Tories did too?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 79

    eek said:

    dodrade said:

    I predict an electoral disaster for Labour as they hold the seat surprisingly comfortably taking the heat off SKS.

    Amusing.

    Only if SKS has the beating of Boris is it good for Labour to win in B&S.

    I think (pure guess-work now as I have no local knowledge), Labour will hold B&S. And that is bad for them.

    SKS will continue to under-perform.

    And Labour, panic-stricken, will finally get rid of him in 2023.

    When it will probably be too late.
    Labour have no one to replace SKS with, who is in a position to win a leadership election and could solve the party's issues

    Keeping him is really the best of a bad set of potions.
    I am not convinced by the "no one to replace SKS" argument.

    Labour have plenty of fresh & impressive young female MPs. They need to take a gamble on an Ardern.

    I do agree that the leadership is just a part of a larger set of problems that Labour have got.
    As someone who is not a Labour supporter, but also definitely in the 'Not Tory' camp (especially with the current lot) I see nobody in the Labour Party who is better than SKS. At some point people will tire of Johnson and will want somebody who is competent and trustworthy and Starmer is both of those. After a such a colourful character as PM the mood may even be for someone dull. Due to Covid he hasn't had much chance to make much impression. The alternatives would all make me less inclined to support Labour, not more - and if anyone thinks Burnham is the answer then they have forgotten how woeful he was as a Minister.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873
    dixiedean said:

    I still think it's going Tory, but frankly you'd do better consulting an astrologer for all the good my predictions have been over the years. It's simply the fact that Labour is defending a modest majority, the BXP and Heavy Woollen votes are up for grabs and seem more likely to go Tory than Labour, and whatever support Galloway gets seems more likely to come from Labour than the Tories.

    How do the Conservatives lose under these circumstances? Having their wet centrist flank chewed off by a Lib Dem surge, perhaps? Doesn't seem like the kind of seat that represents a big opportunity for the yellows to make converts, given that they're starting from a very low base.

    Question is, are Heavy Woollen voters (in 2019) putting their Xs in the blue box? You say yes, and that is the consensus, but it seems to me they are more likely to vote Labour. Brexit is no longer an issue, and these are people who did not want to vote Conservative last time even while voting pro-Brexit (and their vote looks like it could have come straight from Labour, if you compare with 2017 in the header).
    I wouldn't be surprised if GG isnt winning many of the Woollens. They are NOTA's after all.
    Why vote Tory or Lab at a by election when you didn't at a GE?
    This is a significant difference between B&S and Hartlepool - the Brexit voters in Hartlepool in 2019 genuinely thought that was the best way to beat Labour whereas the Heavy Wollens in 2019 are people who really don't like the Conservatives.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910

    alex_ said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    Awkward for Labour and their "be cautious not reckless, data not dates, listen to the scientists"... policy

    Labour had a policy on this? I thought it was no different policy to the government, then moan government should have done exactly the same but better.
    All the recent signs have been that they've decided to come down on the side of the Govt is being too reckless, rather than the Govt is being too cautious.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    isam said:

    20% of the electorate voted by post. I presume this is a lot? Who does this help? GG??


    No, that's not quite true, that's just applications, from experience not every application is sent back.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    edited July 1
    High turnout usually means all tribes turned out.

    Love the analysis up thread. Winning and losing bad for Labour apparently according to the blue sages of Pb. 🤷‍♀️
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    edited July 1
    If turnout is 70% Galloway must have done well IMO. That sort of turnout would indicate a very high turnout in Batley for instance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,055
    Galloway for the win. Please. It would be BANTZ
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    alex_ said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    Awkward for Labour and their "be cautious not reckless, data not dates, listen to the scientists"... policy.

    Maybe Whitty and Vallance have just realised that time is running out for them to finally get a summer holiday.

    Magaluff beckons!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited July 1
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    People have been preparing all manner of events/meetings between now and 19 July, ordered themselves for that, made plans for that. Even just cancelling those plans can be a headache.

    I'm not saying that I would not prefer an immediate implementation, or that it would be difficult for everyone, but it's not zero disruption either. I think it'd be worth that disruption, on balance, but it's not nothing.

    Plus, it might be a 'plan to do it, assuming thing continue on this path data wise for another weak' situation, so it's planned, but not confirmed.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    I had a tenner on GG just in case the postal votes help him


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826

    Andy_JS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Turnout estimate - 70% (says Yorkshire Live)

    I'm fairly sure that's nonsense.
    Would be bad news for Labour if so - we got our vote out, but maybe the Tories did too?
    It surely must mean that Galloway has done well in Batley. But I'm sceptical about the figure.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1410698656261476355

    BREAKING: Ministers are planning to remove ALL mandatory mask and social distancing restrictions in England on 19 July - and Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance back it

    If the dicition has been made, then why wait 18 more days, just open now!
    They cannot win, in fairness. Decide something and implement it immediately and you are slammed for not giving notice. Give some time for people to prepare and why are you waiting(or, earlier, gives people time to get around the plans).
    Why do businesses need "time to prepare" for loosening of restrictions. They aren't compelled to accelerate their timelines.
    Yes, imagine the unbridled fury of England’s landlords if they were told they no longer needed to wait tables tomorrow!
This discussion has been closed.