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What happened in Batley and Spen at the May 2019 Euro elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754
    I remember when we didn’t need big flags.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,272
    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    Jonathan said:

    I remember when we didn’t need big flags.

    OK Grandpa.

    I remember when we didn't need the internet.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,272
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    With Unionists like you, who needs Nationalists?
    You are being a Nat appeaser, not even prepared to fight for our precious Union
    I can hear you saying that in your creepy Gollum voice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,723

    Make of this what you will...probably not a good idea to speculate.....I don't wish to end up with Carole Conspiracy in court.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9742903/Entrepreneur-offered-images-Matt-Hancocks-clinch-aide-journalist-five-days-before.html

    Didn't we already know this? There were hints of anti-lockdown involvement even last Friday. Since the Mail does not name anyone, what is the point?
    They are dropping lots of hints.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    edited June 30

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
    They are symbols of our side, your side has the Saltire, we have the Union Jack
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,396

    Make of this what you will...probably not a good idea to speculate.....I don't wish to end up with Carole Conspiracy in court.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9742903/Entrepreneur-offered-images-Matt-Hancocks-clinch-aide-journalist-five-days-before.html

    Didn't we already know this? There were hints of anti-lockdown involvement even last Friday. Since the Mail does not name anyone, what is the point?
    To focus on the who leaked? angle.
    Rather than the how long this has been going on? And who knew what, when? And the ethics of putting her on the payroll. And Boris' claims to have fired him. Etc., etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Jonathan said:

    I remember when we didn’t need big flags.

    Putting up a big flag may well be unnecessary, but let's not play the game of pretending putting up flags, on buildings or behind people, is aberrant behaviour either, the game that has to be played every time everyone from the presidents of France to Canada to the EU Presidents appears on screen with flags all over the place.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,272
    Jonathan said:

    I remember when we didn’t need big flags.

    Indeed. We spent 6 years booting out a fan of big flags.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,396
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
    They are symbols of our side, your side has the Saltire, we have the Union Jack
    Putting an 8 storey Saltire on a government building in Cardiff would be a bit meta.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,272
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
    They are symbols of our side, your side has the Saltire, we have the Union Jack
    Indeed.
    Scottish people have the Saltire.
    British nationalists have the jackboots.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175

    Jonathan said:

    I remember when we didn’t need big flags.

    Indeed. We spent 6 years booting out a fan of big flags.
    Indeed 1964 - 1970.

    Though you forget he came back for two more years after that.

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372

    Jonathan said:

    I remember when we didn’t need big flags.

    Indeed. We spent 6 years booting out a fan of big flags.
    Sturgeon is certainly a fan of big flags

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/nicola-sturgeon-impressed-huge-saltire-24038686

    https://nen.press/2020/04/02/first-minister-to-feature-in-radio-forth-covid-19-special-tomorrow/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
    They are symbols of our side, your side has the Saltire, we have the Union Jack
    Indeed.
    Scottish people have the Saltire.
    British nationalists have the jackboots.
    55% of Scottish people have the Union Jack.

    Scottish Nationalists still idolise Wallace who was hardly a peacemaker
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754

    Jonathan said:

    I remember when we didn’t need big flags.

    A typical scene from Labour's 1997 campaign:

    image
    Political rallies are another thing, I was thinking about how I felt as a young man travelling in the US or bits of Europe noticing the ubiquitous flags and feeling back home we are little more quietly secure that we don’t need to do it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,780
    Why is Bill Cosby the main news item on most British news channels and radio stations?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,697
    OT a court case involving bookmakers Paddy Power is due to be decided. Briefly, a punter asked for £1,300 e/w on a horse but PP agreed to lay £13,000 e/w, which was accepted. After the horse won, PP paid out the full amount but then clawed some back.

    So the court has to decide whether the bet was for £1,300 or £13,000 e/w.

    (Think "thirteen hundred" versus "thirteen thousand" to see how the confusion arose.)

    High Court urged to award £286,000 to punter in Paddy Power disputed wager case
    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/high-court-urged-to-award-286000-to-punter-in-paddy-power-disputed-wager-case/498324
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298
    Calling any typography lawyers. Labour minority-run Kirklees council has taken down hundreds of GG posters because the font size used for the impressum was (they allege) smaller than 12 points. GG has threatened court action but I couldn't find any info on his side of the story.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
    They are symbols of our side, your side has the Saltire, we have the Union Jack
    Indeed.
    Scottish people have the Saltire.
    British nationalists have the jackboots.
    That was, what, three moves to Godwin?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,697
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is Bill Cosby the main news item on most British news channels and radio stations?

    Because all the grown-ups clocked off at five o'clock and the juniors and interns mindlessly follow American news channels. It's been the same for at least two decades now. Or at least, that's how long I've been ranting about it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,723
    edited June 30
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is Bill Cosby the main news item on most British news channels and radio stations?


    Its trending on twitter....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 5,272
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
    They are symbols of our side, your side has the Saltire, we have the Union Jack
    Indeed.
    Scottish people have the Saltire.
    British nationalists have the jackboots.
    55% of Scottish people have the Union Jack.

    Scottish Nationalists still idolise Wallace who was hardly a peacemaker
    Scottish people quite like these Union jacks:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25205017
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,697
    Star Sports' political betting video podcast thingy considers Batley & Spen.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1MW9bO0WJ0

    Background for anyone who wants to watch: Johnny is a journalist acting as host; William is a Star Sports trader; Neil and Paul are professional punters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,697
    edited June 30
    The BBC's news page does not have its customary review of newspaper front pages. Is there a controversial story or just an oversight?

    ETA it has just appeared.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57674522
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,723

    Star Sports' political betting video podcast thingy considers Batley & Spen.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1MW9bO0WJ0

    Background for anyone who wants to watch: Johnny is a journalist acting as host; William is a Star Sports trader; Neil and Paul are professional punters.

    Crickey Neil Channing, theres a blast from the past. He is quite a character.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,175
    eek said:

    OT a court case involving bookmakers Paddy Power is due to be decided. Briefly, a punter asked for £1,300 e/w on a horse but PP agreed to lay £13,000 e/w, which was accepted. After the horse won, PP paid out the full amount but then clawed some back.

    So the court has to decide whether the bet was for £1,300 or £13,000 e/w.

    (Think "thirteen hundred" versus "thirteen thousand" to see how the confusion arose.)

    High Court urged to award £286,000 to punter in Paddy Power disputed wager case
    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/high-court-urged-to-award-286000-to-punter-in-paddy-power-disputed-wager-case/498324

    And for this reason alone Paddy Power should be made to pay out

    "He seems to have been tempted into doing that because he thought the customer was chasing his losses.

    "He thought this was a good chance to make a profit for the business. He says in that email, 'For some reason, the liability just went out of my mind'. We know he thought he was in trouble."
    Absolutely.

    If he'd lost the bet they'd have taken the 13 thousand from the 78 thousand in his account.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,741
    Gnud said:

    Calling any typography lawyers. Labour minority-run Kirklees council has taken down hundreds of GG posters because the font size used for the impressum was (they allege) smaller than 12 points. GG has threatened court action but I couldn't find any info on his side of the story.

    There is no mention of font size in the legislation so it comes down to whether it's readable or not.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,396
    edited June 30
    The flags will be HUUUGGE!
    But the typography small.
    Nights are drawing in.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,697

    eek said:

    OT a court case involving bookmakers Paddy Power is due to be decided. Briefly, a punter asked for £1,300 e/w on a horse but PP agreed to lay £13,000 e/w, which was accepted. After the horse won, PP paid out the full amount but then clawed some back.

    So the court has to decide whether the bet was for £1,300 or £13,000 e/w.

    (Think "thirteen hundred" versus "thirteen thousand" to see how the confusion arose.)

    High Court urged to award £286,000 to punter in Paddy Power disputed wager case
    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/high-court-urged-to-award-286000-to-punter-in-paddy-power-disputed-wager-case/498324

    And for this reason alone Paddy Power should be made to pay out

    "He seems to have been tempted into doing that because he thought the customer was chasing his losses.

    "He thought this was a good chance to make a profit for the business. He says in that email, 'For some reason, the liability just went out of my mind'. We know he thought he was in trouble."
    Absolutely.

    If he'd lost the bet they'd have taken the 13 thousand from the 78 thousand in his account.
    As an aside, Paddy Power's barrister inludes this nugget in his chambers blurb, which might chime with older PBers:-
    Acted for a betting exchange in defending several claims in respect of bets on the date of a party leader’s official departure from office.
    https://www.4pumpcourt.com/barrister/kajetan-wandowicz/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,780
    edited July 1
    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Andy_JS said:

    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%

    I can't see Con being so low, or Galloway being so high.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eight-storey union flag planned for Cardiff UK-government building

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-57667929

    Screams insecurity.

    Screams proud Unionism, taking the fight to Nationalist secessionists like you
    You do realise that flags can’t vote?
    They are symbols of our side, your side has the Saltire, we have the Union Jack
    And we have the skull and crossbones.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,697
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%

    I can't see Con being so low, or Galloway being so high.
    It all looks very complicated. First, the Conservatives do not seem to have been campaigning in a traditional sense but are following a more modern and arguably cynical method: keep the candidate away from the media and voters; rely on phones and/or social media. And a photo-op with Boris at the Fox's biscuit factory. We do not know how successful this will be.

    Second, who is voting for Galloway? There has been the lazy assumption that all Muslims (because of Palestine) and no non-Muslims will put vote for him. But what of non-Muslim Labour lefties who see Galloway as a chance to get rid of Keir Starmer? Do older Muslim voters really care about Palestine? Do no Muslims have views on other matters like Covid, schools or the economy?

    Third, Labour. Ignore the Jo Cox's sister factor but surely the starting point should not be Brexit or Hartlepool but the fact Labour held the seat in the 2019 general election so should be favourites to win. Against that, Keir Starmer is exciting nobody; Galloway might chip off support from the left and Muslims; Labour's crass anti-Modi leaflet might alienate voters of Indian descent. There have been reports of dirty tricks and even violence against Labour but we also know at least some of the Muslim activists involved are from outside the area, so we'll ignore them.

    Fourth, the Heavy Woollen Independents and other minor parties. There are a lot more small parties standing this time but not the Ukip-lite Woollens. I can't see why their supporters would vote Tory this time when they did not in 2019. Is it not likely they are Labour-leaning Brexiteers who could not stomach voting Conservative? I'm assuming they will break 2:1:1 to Labour, Tory and others respectively.

    So 2019 saw Labour 43%; Tories 36%; others 21%. Let's start from there.

    According to the council, there are 20% Asian voters, of whom 10% are from Pakistan and 10% India. I don't know if this includes second and even third generation voters.

    If George Galloway takes 7 percentage points from Labour and nothing from the Conservatives, then Labour and Conservatives will be level on 36%. If we give Labour 6 points from the Woollens and Tories 3 points we have a narrow Labour victory.

    Forecast:
    Lab 42%
    Con 39%
    Galloway 7%
    Others 12%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%

    I can't see Con being so low, or Galloway being so high.
    It all looks very complicated. First, the Conservatives do not seem to have been campaigning in a traditional sense but are following a more modern and arguably cynical method: keep the candidate away from the media and voters; rely on phones and/or social media. And a photo-op with Boris at the Fox's biscuit factory. We do not know how successful this will be.

    Second, who is voting for Galloway? There has been the lazy assumption that all Muslims (because of Palestine) and no non-Muslims will put vote for him. But what of non-Muslim Labour lefties who see Galloway as a chance to get rid of Keir Starmer? Do older Muslim voters really care about Palestine? Do no Muslims have views on other matters like Covid, schools or the economy?

    Third, Labour. Ignore the Jo Cox's sister factor but surely the starting point should not be Brexit or Hartlepool but the fact Labour held the seat in the 2019 general election so should be favourites to win. Against that, Keir Starmer is exciting nobody; Galloway might chip off support from the left and Muslims; Labour's crass anti-Modi leaflet might alienate voters of Indian descent. There have been reports of dirty tricks and even violence against Labour but we also know at least some of the Muslim activists involved are from outside the area, so we'll ignore them.

    Fourth, the Heavy Woollen Independents and other minor parties. There are a lot more small parties standing this time but not the Ukip-lite Woollens. I can't see why their supporters would vote Tory this time when they did not in 2019. Is it not likely they are Labour-leaning Brexiteers who could not stomach voting Conservative? I'm assuming they will break 2:1:1 to Labour, Tory and others respectively.

    So 2019 saw Labour 43%; Tories 36%; others 21%. Let's start from there.

    According to the council, there are 20% Asian voters, of whom 10% are from Pakistan and 10% India. I don't know if this includes second and even third generation voters.

    If George Galloway takes 7 percentage points from Labour and nothing from the Conservatives, then Labour and Conservatives will be level on 36%. If we give Labour 6 points from the Woollens and Tories 3 points we have a narrow Labour victory.

    Forecast:
    Lab 42%
    Con 39%
    Galloway 7%
    Others 12%
    In both the locals and Hartlepool, BXP voters have broken heavily for the Conservatives. Why would the Heavy Woolens be different?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,697
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%

    I can't see Con being so low, or Galloway being so high.
    It all looks very complicated. First, the Conservatives do not seem to have been campaigning in a traditional sense but are following a more modern and arguably cynical method: keep the candidate away from the media and voters; rely on phones and/or social media. And a photo-op with Boris at the Fox's biscuit factory. We do not know how successful this will be.

    Second, who is voting for Galloway? There has been the lazy assumption that all Muslims (because of Palestine) and no non-Muslims will put vote for him. But what of non-Muslim Labour lefties who see Galloway as a chance to get rid of Keir Starmer? Do older Muslim voters really care about Palestine? Do no Muslims have views on other matters like Covid, schools or the economy?

    Third, Labour. Ignore the Jo Cox's sister factor but surely the starting point should not be Brexit or Hartlepool but the fact Labour held the seat in the 2019 general election so should be favourites to win. Against that, Keir Starmer is exciting nobody; Galloway might chip off support from the left and Muslims; Labour's crass anti-Modi leaflet might alienate voters of Indian descent. There have been reports of dirty tricks and even violence against Labour but we also know at least some of the Muslim activists involved are from outside the area, so we'll ignore them.

    Fourth, the Heavy Woollen Independents and other minor parties. There are a lot more small parties standing this time but not the Ukip-lite Woollens. I can't see why their supporters would vote Tory this time when they did not in 2019. Is it not likely they are Labour-leaning Brexiteers who could not stomach voting Conservative? I'm assuming they will break 2:1:1 to Labour, Tory and others respectively.

    So 2019 saw Labour 43%; Tories 36%; others 21%. Let's start from there.

    According to the council, there are 20% Asian voters, of whom 10% are from Pakistan and 10% India. I don't know if this includes second and even third generation voters.

    If George Galloway takes 7 percentage points from Labour and nothing from the Conservatives, then Labour and Conservatives will be level on 36%. If we give Labour 6 points from the Woollens and Tories 3 points we have a narrow Labour victory.

    Forecast:
    Lab 42%
    Con 39%
    Galloway 7%
    Others 12%
    In both the locals and Hartlepool, BXP voters have broken heavily for the Conservatives. Why would the Heavy Woolens be different?
    Hartlepool may have been unusual because of, and let's choose our words carefully, the sex factor. The former MP stepped down facing sexual harrassment allegations. The Labour candidate was forced to apologise for MILF tweets. And just to concentrate the mind, an independent candidate was revealed to be a convicted sex offender. I suspect this rather than Brexit was the factor in the Tory win with much churn below the surface. I do not think these factors are present in Batley and Spen. However, I've given the numbers so anyone who disagrees can reallocate HWI votes as they see fit.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 257

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is Bill Cosby the main news item on most British news channels and radio stations?

    Because all the grown-ups clocked off at five o'clock and the juniors and interns mindlessly follow American news channels. It's been the same for at least two decades now. Or at least, that's how long I've been ranting about it.
    Because he has just been released from jail and a mindless reporter on the BBC said that Bill Clinton has just been released from prison instead of saying Crosby.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,058
    SandraMc said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why is Bill Cosby the main news item on most British news channels and radio stations?

    Because all the grown-ups clocked off at five o'clock and the juniors and interns mindlessly follow American news channels. It's been the same for at least two decades now. Or at least, that's how long I've been ranting about it.
    Because he has just been released from jail and a mindless reporter on the BBC said that Bill Clinton has just been released from prison instead of saying Crosby.
    Lock him up?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%

    I can't see Con being so low, or Galloway being so high.
    It all looks very complicated. First, the Conservatives do not seem to have been campaigning in a traditional sense but are following a more modern and arguably cynical method: keep the candidate away from the media and voters; rely on phones and/or social media. And a photo-op with Boris at the Fox's biscuit factory. We do not know how successful this will be.

    Second, who is voting for Galloway? There has been the lazy assumption that all Muslims (because of Palestine) and no non-Muslims will put vote for him. But what of non-Muslim Labour lefties who see Galloway as a chance to get rid of Keir Starmer? Do older Muslim voters really care about Palestine? Do no Muslims have views on other matters like Covid, schools or the economy?

    Third, Labour. Ignore the Jo Cox's sister factor but surely the starting point should not be Brexit or Hartlepool but the fact Labour held the seat in the 2019 general election so should be favourites to win. Against that, Keir Starmer is exciting nobody; Galloway might chip off support from the left and Muslims; Labour's crass anti-Modi leaflet might alienate voters of Indian descent. There have been reports of dirty tricks and even violence against Labour but we also know at least some of the Muslim activists involved are from outside the area, so we'll ignore them.

    Fourth, the Heavy Woollen Independents and other minor parties. There are a lot more small parties standing this time but not the Ukip-lite Woollens. I can't see why their supporters would vote Tory this time when they did not in 2019. Is it not likely they are Labour-leaning Brexiteers who could not stomach voting Conservative? I'm assuming they will break 2:1:1 to Labour, Tory and others respectively.

    So 2019 saw Labour 43%; Tories 36%; others 21%. Let's start from there.

    According to the council, there are 20% Asian voters, of whom 10% are from Pakistan and 10% India. I don't know if this includes second and even third generation voters.

    If George Galloway takes 7 percentage points from Labour and nothing from the Conservatives, then Labour and Conservatives will be level on 36%. If we give Labour 6 points from the Woollens and Tories 3 points we have a narrow Labour victory.

    Forecast:
    Lab 42%
    Con 39%
    Galloway 7%
    Others 12%
    In both the locals and Hartlepool, BXP voters have broken heavily for the Conservatives. Why would the Heavy Woolens be different?
    Is it in Yorkshire?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505
    Andy_JS said:

    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%

    Andy_JS said:

    Not confident about this forecast. I'm probably overestimating Galloway in a big way. DYOR.

    Batley & Spen, prediction:

    Ryan Stephenson (Conservative) - 35.3%
    George Galloway (Workers Party) - 30.3%
    Kim Leadbeater (Labour) - 27.5%
    Thomas Gordon (Liberal Democrat) - 2.0%
    Others 4.9% [divided between 12 other candidates]

    Turnout: 50%

    If the Tories are as low as 35.3% it will be a LAB Hold

    I think Tories will be over 40% but hey I thought they would win in C&A
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