Chesham Tory Peter Fleet was on a losing run right from his selection as candidate – politicalbettin

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

I notice Andy Burnham is shattering the progressive alliance this morning and telling Nicola to get stuffed with her anti-English travel bans.

If Labour want to get back most of the Red Wall and make inroads in lower middle class and working class Tory seats in the North and Midlands and have a chance of a majority any time within the next decade then Burnham is probably their only chance, hence he is ensuring he keeps his distance from the SNP too as well as diehard anti Brexiteers.

Starmer however as I posted earlier could become PM in 2023/4 even if the Tories won most seats in a hung parliament as a puppet PM propped up by the LDs and the SNP

Remember this puppet PM propped up by the LDs?

Cameron won comfortably most seats in 2010, Starmer would likely not have won most seats in 2024 if he needed LD and SNP support to become PM

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.

Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.

Oi! I get to do the seating plan.

I just went off the order you chose. I figured you were between contrarian and kinabalu, which could be interesting in its own right.

No, I'm in charge. It's at mine. I'll let you know.

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Razedabode said:

malcolmg said:

Fenman said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Coming Soon!

lol. When will Sturgeon’s fans hear the reedy music of feartiness?

If only there was a way for a brave Unionist pm to call the fearties’ bluff and put the issue to bed.

https://static.dw.com/image/19065588_401.jpg

I see the brave lads are back to one of their favourite thumb-on-the-scales exercises

Funny how they keep telling us we’re not allowed a referendum, while simultaneously micro-managing the details.

I wouldn't assume that Scots living in rUK are massively pro-Union anyway. I'm not, and my sense from talking to others is that for a lot of people the calculations changed after 2016. Speaking personally, I see mostly upside for me from Scottish independence. I get a Scottish/EU passport. I get to stick it to the Tories. And I'm not personally liable for the fiscal costs of an independent Scotland, so if it doesn't work out well I'm not on the hook. This all sounds pretty selfish and irresponsible, of course - which is why I wouldn't give the vote on this to Scots in rUK. But if they do give me the vote, I'd definitely use it!
I wonder what the polling says on this, I don't remember seeing any.

Of course, if they gave the English a vote Scotland would be independent straight away.

So why are you so scared of a referendum then.

I don’t think people in England are scared, only the SNP and UK government.

Plus, Sturgeons too busy picking a fight with Manchester

We Tories won a majority in 2019 on a manifesto commitment of respecting the result of the once in a generation 2014 referendum.

As long as we Tories remain in power with a majority at Westminster we will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP and Scottish Nationalists can do about it

Which traitors in the cabinet do you think are pushing for a referendum and extending the vote to England based Scots?

Some weak, wet blanket Ministers, however today's report has no evidence whatsoever the PM is considering allowing a vote and on that basis we should remain of the view he will stick to his position of refusing indyref2.

Refusing a legal indyref2 is the most important task of this government for the rest of its term in power

PB is gonna be a hoot the day de Pfeffel caves.

He won't, Boris does not want to go down in history as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland rather than the architect of Brexit he currently is.

Given Sturgeon has ruled out UDI, Boris can refuse indyref2 forever and Sturgeon will not do anything about it

It’s not Sturgeon that will be weighing on the mind of Unionist strategists. It is Scottish public opinion.

But you keep digging pal.

It isn't for Boris, he knows he won a majority of 80 in 2019 with just 6 Scottish Tory MPs, even if he had 0 MPs in Scotland he could stay UK PM so why would he care about Scottish public opinion? Better for Boris to ignore the SNP forever than go down as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland.

Plus only 37 per cent of Scots believe there should be a referendum before the end of 2023 anyway

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/indyref2-poll-finds-just-12-per-cent-of-scots-want-focus-on-new-vote-3229909

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

No, I'm not having that.
Two of my daughters are currently at home off school - not because they have covid, but because a classmate has. They're now not supposed to leave the house except to get tested. The oldest is now going to miss her class's end-of-primary school residential.
We are SO far from not locked down.
We've *sigh* done what we're supposed to and taken them to be tested, but if either of them come back positive we'll then have to stay in for ten days. Even my double-jabbed wife.
I supported vaccination, but not because it's jolly to get jabbed in the arm; I supported it because if we vaccinate the vulnerable we can get rid of all this shit. We've vaccinated the vulnerable. Why is this shit still here?
And this shit also involves having to wearing mask in shops, invite more than one family to our house, leaving our details wherever we go, being hectored and patronised at my own expense - all seen by some as costless but actually imposing a very great cost indeed.
The impositions we are under would have seemed absolutely unconscionable at any point before January 2020. Many of us think they still are.

IshmaelZ said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

maaarsh said:

IanB2 said:

How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?

Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.

There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.

Its funny.

When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.

And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.

Hint:

The joke is on the stupid boobies who swallowed everything the government said, went into house arrest, turned themselves into pin cushions, are still not free, and face an enormous burgling of their remaining wealth in the autumn when the bill comes around.

If there are 'hotels' of derisive laughter, its at them.

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.

Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.

Oi! I get to do the seating plan.

Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?

Can't believe you're having this party without me, mate. Especially since you're inviting one of the sexiest stars of our age. As well as Scarlet Johhansson.

TOPPING said:

turbotubbs said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.

True, although if you drove on the m1 at 80 mph to get there you would also be breaking the law. We’re not in lockdown, but some restrictions remain. Life for many is broadly unaffected. We’re nearly there...

You believe mandating by law the number of people you are allowed in your house is the same as breaking the speed limit.

Jesus we're never getting out of this.

Extreme measures during a 1 in 100 year pandemic. Should no longer be in place. I would have lifted all measures today.
The point was about people’s behaviour. Most people will not bat an eyelid if you have seven to dinner. Or if you touch 80 on the M1. I hate the restrictions but have seen the basis up till now, but no longer. But we are not in lockdown in th3 sense of March 2019, or jan 2020.

272,798 vaccinations in the UK yesterday

England 142,223 1st doses / 78,594 2nd doses
Scotland 16,848 / 15,333
Wales 1,619 / 8,460
NI 3,060 / 6,661

williamglenn said:

272,798 vaccinations in the UK yesterday

England 142,223 1st doses / 78,594 2nd doses
Scotland 16,848 / 15,333
Wales 1,619 / 8,460
NI 3,060 / 6,661

Super Saturday doesn't seem to have lead to a super significant spike in vaccination numbers.

Andy_JS said:

turbotubbs said:

maaarsh said:

IanB2 said:

How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?

Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.

There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.

I absolutely do not accept it. Some things will not be "part of life".

Annual COVID boosters, tests before hospital admission etc. This is what I’m talking about.

Anabobazina said:

londonpubman said:

Anabobazina said:

londonpubman said:

Anabobazina said:

maaarsh said:

IanB2 said:

How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?

Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.

Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.

No-one can be certain until we have an official announcement.

But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.

Then two weeks to allow for full effect.

So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.

How then is it a 'terminus date', if there will be continued restrictions? Are you swallowing this shite wholesale?

It isn't really a 'terminus date'. There needs to be greater clarification as to what will happen on 19 July and what won't. But we won't get that until the time of the announcement on or around 12 July as there is some uncertainty as to what extent the remaining restrictions can be released. The government may say 'yes the restrictions on businesses are removed but we still need some NPIs - non pharmaceutical interventions - eg masks for public health purposes'.

Sure. Then why are the government calling it a terminus date? It's not.

Because Boris is the Fat Controller.

Why else?

isam said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.

Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.

Noted. But it's at mine so I'll be doing the seating plan.

Do you have somewhere for Dura Ace to leave his BMX?

Yes. Front railings. But he's not coming. You can take his place if you like. Casual affair. Your usual West Ham shirt and trackie bottoms is fine.

TOPPING said:

IshmaelZ said:

contrarian said:

turbotubbs said:

maaarsh said:

IanB2 said:

How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?

Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.

There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.

Its funny.

When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.

And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.

Imagine there were no such dissident voices. Imagine that everyone cheered to the rafters the government's every restriction and new imposition. Imagine, if you can bear it, floating off the Scottish coast as you are right now, that there were no Steve Baker.

We would be stuck like this for months and months and years.

The problem is that opponents of lockdown have been too easy to dismiss as cranks who would crash the health system, because too many of them have been cranks.

If they'd not been listened to perhaps we could have had a debate about appropriate use of state power that didn't dismiss the real threat that Covid posed.

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

isam said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

…

kinabalu said:

On topic -

I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.

For example, of the following:

1. A strengthening Remain identity.
2. People seeing through Johnson.
3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence.
4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North.
5. Nimby opposition to HS2.
6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.

I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.

But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.

Lab+LD 2021 is the same as Lab+LD 2019
Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote

Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority

Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that

Plausible. Although of course that's probably now you doing what I'm saying everyone else is doing - picking the reasons you like the most.

If the 21k LD+Lab last week weren't almost exclusively the 21k motivated to vote against Boris in 2019, what were those 2019ers doing last Thursday after the LDs had been force feeding leaflets down their throats for the past month?!! Not bothered? Wouldn't vote to embarrass Boris in a by election? I just cant believe that

It's just a bit too pat for me. There'll be some other movements netting off.

Gnudders said:

Will Vallance or Whitty or some other SAGE members be telling us whether it was on their advice that Boris Johnson said the rise in cases in Cornwall was unrelated to the G7 conference?

The prime minister's press spokesman:

"Obviously we don’t accept this claim. Attendees going to the G7 were tested before arriving and throughout the summit, and we’re not aware of any cases of transmission to local residents.

We always said that, following the move to step 3, that we will see cases rising across the country. That is what we’re seeing playing out."

That's dodging the issue and crap logic. Let's hear what advice Johnson has sought and received.

The Cornwall CMO was on the Beeb saying it started before the G7 and thought the half term holiday a more likely source, spreading among unvaccinated hospitality workers

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

272,798 vaccinations in the UK yesterday

England 142,223 1st doses / 78,594 2nd doses
Scotland 16,848 / 15,333
Wales 1,619 / 8,460
NI 3,060 / 6,661

Super Saturday doesn't seem to have lead to a super significant spike in vaccination numbers.

Too soon to have come through in the reporting, I think.

I thought it was a 2 day lag?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

272,798 vaccinations in the UK yesterday

England 142,223 1st doses / 78,594 2nd doses
Scotland 16,848 / 15,333
Wales 1,619 / 8,460
NI 3,060 / 6,661

Super Saturday doesn't seem to have lead to a super significant spike in vaccination numbers.

Too soon to have come through in the reporting, I think.

I thought it was a 2 day lag?

Sometimes closer to three, I think.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.

Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.

Oi! I get to do the seating plan.

Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?

Can't believe you're having this party without me, mate. Especially since you're inviting one of the sexiest stars of our age. As well as Scarlet Johhansson.

No, no, no. You can come. You have to come. It was Topping trying to micro-manage and control everything as per usual. Sorted now.

tlg86 said:

turbotubbs said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.

ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.

Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).

Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.

What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:

2013-14: 162,398
2014-15: 190,539

That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.

I think you have this backwards.

There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.

With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

19 July is supposed to be a 'terminus date', remember? So the law that makes seven-people dinner parties illegal needs to go.

You know it makes sense.

Maike Bohn of @the3million said the leaked figures were “shocking”

Isn't that false advertising? Shouldn't they be called the @over5million ?

Anabobazina said:

It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.

I'll come if Cyclefree is not free.

FrancisUrquhart said:

It clear from Boris mumblings today there is absolutely no chance of anything earlier than that the month delay.

Yep, and given the basis for the last extension is already falsified and he claimed there was a 2 week review, we can all now take a more reasoned view on the chance of the 19th of July surviving contact with SAGE.

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

No, I'm not having that.
Two of my daughters are currently at home off school - not because they have covid, but because a classmate has. They're now not supposed to leave the house except to get tested. The oldest is now going to miss her class's end-of-primary school residential.
We are SO far from not locked down.
We've *sigh* done what we're supposed to and taken them to be tested, but if either of them come back positive we'll then have to stay in for ten days. Even my double-jabbed wife.
I supported vaccination, but not because it's jolly to get jabbed in the arm; I supported it because if we vaccinate the vulnerable we can get rid of all this shit. We've vaccinated the vulnerable. Why is this shit still here?
And this shit also involves having to wearing mask in shops, invite more than one family to our house, leaving our details wherever we go, being hectored and patronised at my own expense - all seen by some as costless but actually imposing a very great cost indeed.
The impositions we are under would have seemed absolutely unconscionable at any point before January 2020. Many of us think they still are.

I know there are restrictions still in place and they impact some people far more than me. It's a fair point. It's just that the phrase "we are locked down" rings false to me. For me being "locked down" equates to the Stay Home control order and most things shut. Like it once was. It's only a language thing but language is important. It's how all non physical battles are fought - with language.

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.

Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.

Oi! I get to do the seating plan.

Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?

Can't believe you're having this party without me, mate. Especially since you're inviting one of the sexiest stars of our age. As well as Scarlet Johhansson.

No, no, no. You can come. You have to come. It was Topping trying to micro-manage and control everything as per usual. Sorted now.

I told you to have a dinner party and you're now having a dinner party so job done.

Just look out for plod.

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.

maaarsh said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It clear from Boris mumblings today there is absolutely no chance of anything earlier than that the month delay.

Yep, and given the basis for the last extension is already falsified and he claimed there was a 2 week review, we can all now take a more reasoned view on the chance of the 19th of July surviving contact with SAGE.

Who the feck knows.

We are certainly being softened up for an autumn of restrictions while we wait for boosters and deal with flu.

tlg86 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

turbotubbs said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.

ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.

Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).

Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.

What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:

2013-14: 162,398
2014-15: 190,539

That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.

I think you have this backwards.

There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.

With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.

For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.

And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.

There's surely a very large intersect between those at risk of the flu and those at risk of Covid, and Covid has taken more of them out than the flu normally would.

There's surely fewer people at risk from flu next winter, not more, as a result?

The difference between 2014 and 2021 is that in 2014 the people not killed by the flu were still alive and vulnerable, in 2021 they have already died of something else and can't die again.

SandraMc said:

Anabobazina said:

It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.

I'll come if Cyclefree is not free.

"I'm free!"

TOPPING said:

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.

I think Sunak and others are so alarmed at the public's complacency, they may be deliberately spreading counter scare stuff on some of the bills that are going to come in.

Many think we can live like this forever. Ishmael is clearly one.

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

19 July is supposed to be a 'terminus date', remember? So the law that makes seven-people dinner parties illegal needs to go.

You know it makes sense.

The terminus was a Johnson promise.

He seems resolute at the moment but will he "terminus" language trump the inevitable poll on 18 July which will show popularity for a further delay?

TOPPING said:

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.

There is a group of PBers who favour prolonged restrictions, because they don't mind them and they make them feel safer. I suspect that their effects on the young and the outgoing is a minor consideration: the key criteria is the impact on their own wellbeing.

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.

Scarlett Johansson, huh?

Fan of Under The Skin, are you?

She has reasonable Prestige.

tlg86 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

turbotubbs said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.

ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.

Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).

Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.

What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:

2013-14: 162,398
2014-15: 190,539

That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.

I think you have this backwards.

There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.

With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.

For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.

And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.

England deaths, by age groups

00 04 9
05 09 6
10 14 13
15 19 31
20 24 59
25 29 119
30 34 213
35 39 357
40 44 574
45 49 1,136
50 54 2,017
55 59 3,300
60 64 3,883
65 69 8,109
70 74 11,071
75 79 15,339
80 84 20,435
85 89 22,272
90+ 23,591

kinabalu said:

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉

Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....

That's fantastic.

Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.

Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.

WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!

Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.

More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!

We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.

No, I'm not having that.
Two of my daughters are currently at home off school - not because they have covid, but because a classmate has. They're now not supposed to leave the house except to get tested. The oldest is now going to miss her class's end-of-primary school residential.
We are SO far from not locked down.
We've *sigh* done what we're supposed to and taken them to be tested, but if either of them come back positive we'll then have to stay in for ten days. Even my double-jabbed wife.
I supported vaccination, but not because it's jolly to get jabbed in the arm; I supported it because if we vaccinate the vulnerable we can get rid of all this shit. We've vaccinated the vulnerable. Why is this shit still here?
And this shit also involves having to wearing mask in shops, invite more than one family to our house, leaving our details wherever we go, being hectored and patronised at my own expense - all seen by some as costless but actually imposing a very great cost indeed.
The impositions we are under would have seemed absolutely unconscionable at any point before January 2020. Many of us think they still are.

I know there are restrictions still in place and they impact some people far more than me. It's a fair point. It's just that the phrase "we are locked down" rings false to me. For me being "locked down" equates to the Stay Home control order and most things shut. Like it once was. It's only a language thing but language is important. It's how all non physical battles are fought - with language.

But the only reason you can describe this as not locked down is that last March-June was worse. I don't think that's a good enough reason.
With the exception of that period, this is the biggest restriction on our civil liberties ever. We are less free than we were during WW2. Richer, more comfortable, at less risk of bombs dropping on us and not having to send our youth of to war, granted - but that's all the more reason why are lack of freedom is absurd.

NerysHughes said:

Recorded deaths in hospitals in England over the weekend with a positive Covid test within 28 days.

18/6/21 - 9
19/6/21 - 2
20/6/21 - 0

The increase in cases is not leading to an increase in deaths at all.

Nonsense. The weekly death rate is 80% higher than its minimum a month ago. Following fairly closely the 115% increase in the weekly positive test rate, over the month following its minimum a fortnight earlier.

Believe it or not, the laws of statistics still apply, regardless of wishful thinking.

Anabobazina said:

It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.

You're absolutely right. I'm going to phone her and tell her she can't come.

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.

There is a group of PBers who favour prolonged restrictions, because they don't mind them and they make them feel safer. I suspect that their effects on the young and the outgoing is a minor consideration: the key criteria is the impact on their own wellbeing.

That is why, I think, Sunak and others are out there showing how this will inevitably come to their doors one day. There is no escaping the implications

We see stories being planted about new taxes on pension pots and the end of the triple lock.

Chris said:

NerysHughes said:

Recorded deaths in hospitals in England over the weekend with a positive Covid test within 28 days.

18/6/21 - 9
19/6/21 - 2
20/6/21 - 0

The increase in cases is not leading to an increase in deaths at all.

Nonsense. The weekly death rate is 80% higher than its minimum a month ago. Following fairly closely the 115% increase in the weekly positive test rate, over the month following its minimum a fortnight earlier.

Believe it or not, the laws of statistics still apply, regardless of wishful thinking.

Looks relatively flat:

https://i.imgur.com/vtCUcTe.png

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.

Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?

(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)

It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of s/e people are seeing their earnings get really hammered due to the virus officially, while a lot of cash income is being generated unofficially.

No doubt people like this, and those who are enjoying not having to go into work either because of furlough or no need for commute/WFH, are being included in the pollsters "do you support restrictions" polling thus skewing the result. These people should be disregarded.

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

I went to St Kilda once, and had a fabulous time. It's all mightily impressive, a world class landscape, perhaps the most mind-boggling things are the sea stacks - Stac an Armin, Stac Lee - they rise like giant black molars straight from the waves, half a kilometre into the air. The ancient Kildans used to climb them barefoot and camp on the tops for weeks, harvesting the fulmars

They used the carcases of the birds as slippers, and the beaks as buttons

But my God the churning sea. I got a rare sunny day - heavenly - but when the time came for our departure the ocean was beginning to boil and I was very glad I decided not to camp (my original intention)

Everyone should see it, if they ever get the chance. Enjoy

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:

It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.

You're absolutely right. I'm going to phone her and tell her she can't come.

You'd be better off binning off a couple of the blokes, and replacing them with Salma Hayek or Rose Byrne.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stocky said:

I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.

Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?

(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)

Our son who is to be married in six weeks is not having a stag do as the chance of anyone there catching covid, no matter how small, is just not worth the risk to the wedding

What a shame. I guess is would only be a major issue if the groom himself caught it!

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stocky said:

I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.

Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?

(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)

Our son who is to be married in six weeks is not having a stag do as the chance of anyone there catching covid, no matter how small, is just not worth the risk to the wedding

What a shame. I guess is would only be a major issue if the groom himself caught it!

Or the best man, or the immediate family party including the brides father

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

IshmaelZ said:

tlg86 said:

MaxPB said:

MikeL said:

Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?

OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.

But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.

Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?

Link (select page 2/9 for graph):

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.

I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.

Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.

I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now

You know it makes sense.

Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.

Wait till you hear what 6 year olds in 1945 had gone through.

This is not World War fucking Two. It's a nasty new virus. Enough of this masking and distancing shit. We are wrecking lives, minds and souls to no purpose

Anabobazina said:

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:

It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.

You're absolutely right. I'm going to phone her and tell her she can't come.

You'd be better off binning off a couple of the blokes, and replacing them with Salma Hayek or Rose Byrne.

Rachel Reeves and Penny Mordaunt.