How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
Doesn't sound very radical. But equally doesn't appear different to what you could encounter on numerous other platforms.
And that is why it will fail, its a naff version of what is already available in an industry that already isn't profitable and where consumers are turning to other sources for info-tainment.
A platform showing topical, but researched-in-depth stories might have a future, though.
There is opportunity there...hence why we see all these companies buying podcasts (which all have video streams).
Yes - if I had Bezos level money, I would be funding a interlinkage of pod casts (video and audio) and a news wiki. Stories as an ongoing, updated process, with a heavy emphasis on linkages between items/stories... Some way of flagging (for the customers) "I want more digging on this particular thing"??
This is why Murdoch wanted to merge all his UK media businesses, so you would get all this cross pollination.
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
Doesn't sound very radical. But equally doesn't appear different to what you could encounter on numerous other platforms.
And that is why it will fail, its a naff version of what is already available in an industry that already isn't profitable and where consumers are turning to other sources for info-tainment.
A platform showing topical, but researched-in-depth stories might have a future, though.
There is opportunity there...hence why we see all these companies buying podcasts (which all have video streams).
Yes - if I had Bezos level money, I would be funding a interlinkage of pod casts (video and audio) and a news wiki. Stories as an ongoing, updated process, with a heavy emphasis on linkages between items/stories... Some way of flagging (for the customers) "I want more digging on this particular thing"??
This is why Murdoch wanted to merge all his UK media businesses, so you would get all this cross pollination.
Nope - he just wanted to reduce costs... the same content for all platforms....
Just caught the start of Politics Live and it's obvious that the pensions triple lock is a massive elephant trap for Labour and they are going to walk straight into it.
How so?
Well, I think it's obvious that the Tories will not raise pensions in line with wages (6% or something apparently) but will do so in line with inflation. So pensioners will get a rise. The Labour woman on the show (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_Lewell-Buck) was saying "manifesto pledge, tax billionaires, etc. etc." and I suspect that's what Labour will say.
I suspect most people will be understanding of the issue and will just see Labour as being incredibly juvenile.
The state pension is £179.60 a week, almost exactly half the minimum wage, so it is not clear that raising it will be electorally disastrous, though tbh I've never quite worked out why so many hate the triple lock as too generous; iirc it only means £10 or so more anyway.
The entire problem of the triple lock is the steady transfer of more and more of the nation's wealth to the elderly. It ramps pensions ahead of wages, to a demographic that already owns a very large fraction of property wealth and which is still growing as a percentage of the population as it ages. All of this means that the old are becoming a progressively heavier burden on the young and that this trend will continue for many years to come.
The shrinking working age population can't support itself and fund ever more generous benefits for the expanding retired population.
Society itself is a (collapsing) pyramid scheme, so there's some inevitability about this.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
A friend of mine met English tourists in Galloway who expressed real reservations about what sort of welcome they would receive in Scotland. They, at least, had come but how many had thought the same and decided not to bother? This absurd anti-English mindset of resentment and grudge is not only epically stupid, it is also economically damaging. But the SNP supporters seem to lap it up and for Nicola that is all that matters.
Everybody was very friendly to English-sounding me in Glasgow last night. And very cheerful in general about how they had had or were shortly to get their jags.
Brave of you to do so thus attired though..
No tattoos though. Lightweight. Not really a Patriot.
Given the number of Scottish politics enthusiasts here, if Sturgeon were run over by a tram tomorrow, who would be the leading contenders to replace her? Is it certain to be a MSP and not an MP?
Best prices - Next First Minister
Angus Robertson MSP 7/2 John Swinney MSP 6/1 Kate Forbes MSP 9/1 Joanna Cherry QC MP 12/1 Anas Sarwar MSP (Lab) 12/1 Humza Yousaf MSP 12/1 Keith Brown MSP 16/1 Douglas Ross MP MSP (Con) 18/1
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
It’s an impressive sounding headline, but is it really?
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Wales suggests that 88-89% is about where things will end up overall. Which means about 7-8% left in the rest of the UK.
Though the question becomes what denominator to use.
The NIMS are very much an overestimate of the amount of people to vaccinate. The ONS perhaps an understimate (though if people have left the country it may be accurate).
Wales are using ONS not NIMS aren't they?
Given that it was relative, I was using the ONS numbers.
NIMS is much closer to the truth than ONS 2019, I think.
Why?
Given that we know a large number of people have left the country in 2020 so won't be getting jabbed - and given that we know people who have moved house etc can be registered twice under NIMS - why would that be closer to the truth?
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
It’s an impressive sounding headline, but is it really?
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Wales suggests that 88-89% is about where things will end up overall. Which means about 7-8% left in the rest of the UK.
Though the question becomes what denominator to use.
The NIMS are very much an overestimate of the amount of people to vaccinate. The ONS perhaps an understimate (though if people have left the country it may be accurate).
Wales are using ONS not NIMS aren't they?
Given that it was relative, I was using the ONS numbers.
NIMS is much closer to the truth than ONS 2019, I think.
Why?
Given that we know a large number of people have left the country in 2020 so won't be getting jabbed - and given that we know people who have moved house etc can be registered twice under NIMS - why would that be closer to the truth?
Because they are actually adjusting the numbers as they find out the ground truth, where they can.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
It’s an impressive sounding headline, but is it really?
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Wales suggests that 88-89% is about where things will end up overall. Which means about 7-8% left in the rest of the UK.
Wales is older and whiter than the national average, ergo less of the refuser groups. England might not do as well.
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
I notice Andy Burnham is shattering the progressive alliance this morning and telling Nicola to get stuffed with her anti-English travel bans.
If Labour want to get back most of the Red Wall and make inroads in lower middle class and working class Tory seats in the North and Midlands and have a chance of a majority any time within the next decade then Burnham is probably their only chance, hence he is ensuring he keeps his distance from the SNP too as well as diehard anti Brexiteers.
Starmer however as I posted earlier could become PM in 2023/4 even if the Tories won most seats in a hung parliament as a puppet PM propped up by the LDs and the SNP
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
Opinion led != just fox News. MSNBC is opinion led, so is most of CNN prime time.
Andrew Neil denies GB News will be a British Fox and says those who spread conspiracy theories will face disciplinary action
That is an easy, inaccurate shorthand for what we are trying to do. In terms of format we are like Fox but we won’t be like Fox in that they come from a hard right disinformation fake news conspiracy agenda.
I see the brave lads are back to one of their favourite thumb-on-the-scales exercises
Funny how they keep telling us we’re not allowed a referendum, while simultaneously micro-managing the details.
I wouldn't assume that Scots living in rUK are massively pro-Union anyway. I'm not, and my sense from talking to others is that for a lot of people the calculations changed after 2016. Speaking personally, I see mostly upside for me from Scottish independence. I get a Scottish/EU passport. I get to stick it to the Tories. And I'm not personally liable for the fiscal costs of an independent Scotland, so if it doesn't work out well I'm not on the hook. This all sounds pretty selfish and irresponsible, of course - which is why I wouldn't give the vote on this to Scots in rUK. But if they do give me the vote, I'd definitely use it! I wonder what the polling says on this, I don't remember seeing any.
Of course, if they gave the English a vote Scotland would be independent straight away.
So why are you so scared of a referendum then.
I don’t think people in England are scared, only the SNP and UK government.
Plus, Sturgeons too busy picking a fight with Manchester
We Tories won a majority in 2019 on a manifesto commitment of respecting the result of the once in a generation 2014 referendum.
As long as we Tories remain in power with a majority at Westminster we will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP and Scottish Nationalists can do about it
Which traitors in the cabinet do you think are pushing for a referendum and extending the vote to England based Scots?
Some weak, wet blanket Ministers, however today's report has no evidence whatsoever the PM is considering allowing a vote and on that basis we should remain of the view he will stick to his position of refusing indyref2.
Refusing a legal indyref2 is the most important task of this government for the rest of its term in power
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
So he said in that link it wouldn't be right wing like Fox and would be impartial.
Funny how people are keen to omit the MSNBC portion of that sentence. I wonder why?
No idea. I cannot read it, but it took just a few seconds to Google to find Andrew Neil making the comparison. It is evidence in favour of GB News being hoist by the petard of its own pre-launch (and maybe fund-raising) publicity.
"Though Zayd said Galloway wasn't "perfect", he said the veteran Scot's policies were better than Labour's in terms of promising to invest in the local community and his support for the Palestinians."
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
A friend of mine met English tourists in Galloway who expressed real reservations about what sort of welcome they would receive in Scotland. They, at least, had come but how many had thought the same and decided not to bother? This absurd anti-English mindset of resentment and grudge is not only epically stupid, it is also economically damaging. But the SNP supporters seem to lap it up and for Nicola that is all that matters.
Everybody was very friendly to English-sounding me in Glasgow last night. And very cheerful in general about how they had had or were shortly to get their jags.
Brave of you to do so thus attired though..
No tattoos though. Lightweight. Not really a Patriot.
I'd stick to your cloth cap and cravat if I were you, Kinabalu.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
Opinion led != just fox News. MSNBC is opinion led, so is most of CNN prime time.
Andrew Neil denies GB News will be a British Fox and says those who spread conspiracy theories will face disciplinary action
That is an easy, inaccurate shorthand for what we are trying to do. In terms of format we are like Fox but we won’t be like Fox in that they come from a hard right disinformation fake news conspiracy agenda.
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
So he said in that link it wouldn't be right wing like Fox and would be impartial.
Funny how people are keen to omit the MSNBC portion of that sentence. I wonder why?
No idea. I cannot read it, but it took just a few seconds to Google to find Andrew Neil making the comparison. It is evidence in favour of GB News being hoist by the petard of its own pre-launch (and maybe fund-raising) publicity.
Why can't.you read it? No paywall on Indy.
“It will be based more like MSNBC in America, which is on the left, and Fox [News], which is on the right … They don’t do rolling news. They do news when it breaks, but they don’t do continuous rolling news.
Its clear it was a journalist setting up for a quote, by specifically asked by the journalist, your just going to be Fox News aren't you. To which he replied no, we are going for the US type model used by left and right.
That isn't as you claim pitching it as Fox. Its just the same smear as been used now.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
So he said in that link it wouldn't be right wing like Fox and would be impartial.
Funny how people are keen to omit the MSNBC portion of that sentence. I wonder why?
No idea. I cannot read it, but it took just a few seconds to Google to find Andrew Neil making the comparison. It is evidence in favour of GB News being hoist by the petard of its own pre-launch (and maybe fund-raising) publicity.
You should be able to skip the registration on the Independent site. Here's the quote:
“There would be no point doing what is already being done pretty well with the existing incumbents. It will not be a rolling news channel,” he told Good Morning Britain.
“It will be based more like MSNBC in America, which is on the left, and Fox [News], which is on the right … They don’t do rolling news. They do news when it breaks, but they don’t do continuous rolling news.
...
Despite making the comparison with Fox News himself, Mr Neil rejected the idea the new channel would play host to a series of right-wing rants.
“I am as neutral and as impartial as anybody on the BBC,” said the veteran, who is also chairman of the company which owns the right-wing political magazine The Spectator.
I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.
For example, of the following:
1. A strengthening Remain identity. 2. People seeing through Johnson. 3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence. 4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North. 5. Nimby opposition to HS2. 6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.
I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.
But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.
Lab+LD 2021 is the same as Lab+LD 2019 Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote
Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority
Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that
Question is- what do those voters do next time? Go back to the '92 to '97 Parliament, and you had Conservative commentators making a similar observation, and concluding that it would be just fine come the General Election. Indeed, I'm pretty sure there was a column in The Telegraph by a hack called Boris making that very point, something about how it don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing.
Pissed-off government supporters might come back for the real thing, but the record on that is patchy. And if the Lib-Lab voter exchange is flowing in a way that it hasn't since 2010, that's significant in itself.
Yeah, I'd say they will come back at the GE no problem. Sir Keir is no Tony Blair, and Boris has a 74 seat bigger majority then John Major had to play with
How would you define a UK Scot? Birth certificate has a location in Scotland?
Okay, what if they lived there 6 months then family moved to England and they've never been back for 60 years? Would someone from Northern Ireland who took a Republic passport, lived in Germany all his life (under FoM) but recently moved to Scotland get the vote?
Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.... the headaches.....
It is very simple you have a residence in Scotland and are on the electoral roll and able to vote in Scottish elections. The only people who have an actual interest in Scotland.
Well that seems simple enough. And birth doesn't come into it? (i.e. non-Scots born Scots residents are included; Scots born non-Scots residents are not)? That's the only reasonable way I can see to do it.
I wonder if it does. I've a client. Lives in England (and born and bred Scouser), but has a Scottish home they travel to from time to time. You're allowed to register to vote in more than one constituency aren't you? Just on the day (of a General Election), only vote once.
I notice Andy Burnham is shattering the progressive alliance this morning and telling Nicola to get stuffed with her anti-English travel bans.
If Labour want to get back most of the Red Wall and make inroads in lower middle class and working class Tory seats in the North and Midlands and have a chance of a majority any time within the next decade then Burnham is probably their only chance, hence he is ensuring he keeps his distance from the SNP too as well as diehard anti Brexiteers.
Starmer however as I posted earlier could become PM in 2023/4 even if the Tories won most seats in a hung parliament as a puppet PM propped up by the LDs and the SNP
Perfectly sound analysis - but "puppet" is an inaccurate and jaundiced description for such an outcome.
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
Opinion led != just fox News. MSNBC is opinion led, so is most of CNN prime time.
Andrew Neil denies GB News will be a British Fox and says those who spread conspiracy theories will face disciplinary action
That is an easy, inaccurate shorthand for what we are trying to do. In terms of format we are like Fox but we won’t be like Fox in that they come from a hard right disinformation fake news conspiracy agenda.
Who is Andrew Neil threatening with disciplinary action? GB News insiders, presumably, making comparisons with Fox.
What is wrong with you this morning, can't you read. He is saying those that push fake news conspiracy theories, which again MSNBC has had a few issues with in recent years.
The only people pushing the its Fox News are the other media outlets. Neil has consistently said no it isn't, to which fhe media writes pieces new Fox News type channel launching.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.
For example, of the following:
1. A strengthening Remain identity. 2. People seeing through Johnson. 3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence. 4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North. 5. Nimby opposition to HS2. 6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.
I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.
But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.
Lab+LD 2021 is the same as Lab+LD 2019 Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote
Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority
Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that
Question is- what do those voters do next time? Go back to the '92 to '97 Parliament, and you had Conservative commentators making a similar observation, and concluding that it would be just fine come the General Election. Indeed, I'm pretty sure there was a column in The Telegraph by a hack called Boris making that very point, something about how it don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing.
Pissed-off government supporters might come back for the real thing, but the record on that is patchy. And if the Lib-Lab voter exchange is flowing in a way that it hasn't since 2010, that's significant in itself.
Yeah, I'd say they will come back at the GE no problem. Sir Keir is no Tony Blair, and Boris has a 74 seat bigger majority then John Major had to play with
He is no Corbyn either and the main reason the Tories held their southern Remain seats in 2019 was fear of Corbyn.
Hence the Tories are still holding and even expanding their Red Wall Seats which Boris won in 2019 from Labour on a 'get Brexit done' ticket but are starting to lose some of their Remain seats in the Home Counties to the LDs now Tory Remainers do not fear Starmer as they feared Corbyn
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.
I see the brave lads are back to one of their favourite thumb-on-the-scales exercises
Funny how they keep telling us we’re not allowed a referendum, while simultaneously micro-managing the details.
I wouldn't assume that Scots living in rUK are massively pro-Union anyway. I'm not, and my sense from talking to others is that for a lot of people the calculations changed after 2016. Speaking personally, I see mostly upside for me from Scottish independence. I get a Scottish/EU passport. I get to stick it to the Tories. And I'm not personally liable for the fiscal costs of an independent Scotland, so if it doesn't work out well I'm not on the hook. This all sounds pretty selfish and irresponsible, of course - which is why I wouldn't give the vote on this to Scots in rUK. But if they do give me the vote, I'd definitely use it! I wonder what the polling says on this, I don't remember seeing any.
Of course, if they gave the English a vote Scotland would be independent straight away.
So why are you so scared of a referendum then.
I don’t think people in England are scared, only the SNP and UK government.
Plus, Sturgeons too busy picking a fight with Manchester
We Tories won a majority in 2019 on a manifesto commitment of respecting the result of the once in a generation 2014 referendum.
As long as we Tories remain in power with a majority at Westminster we will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP and Scottish Nationalists can do about it
Which traitors in the cabinet do you think are pushing for a referendum and extending the vote to England based Scots?
Some weak, wet blanket Ministers, however today's report has no evidence whatsoever the PM is considering allowing a vote and on that basis we should remain of the view he will stick to his position of refusing indyref2.
Refusing a legal indyref2 is the most important task of this government for the rest of its term in power
PB is gonna be a hoot the day de Pfeffel caves.
He won't, Boris does not want to go down in history as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland rather than the architect of Brexit he currently is.
Given Sturgeon has ruled out UDI, Boris can refuse indyref2 forever and Sturgeon will not do anything about it
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
So he said in that link it wouldn't be right wing like Fox and would be impartial.
Funny how people are keen to omit the MSNBC portion of that sentence. I wonder why?
No idea. I cannot read it, but it took just a few seconds to Google to find Andrew Neil making the comparison. It is evidence in favour of GB News being hoist by the petard of its own pre-launch (and maybe fund-raising) publicity.
You should be able to skip the registration on the Independent site. Here's the quote:
“There would be no point doing what is already being done pretty well with the existing incumbents. It will not be a rolling news channel,” he told Good Morning Britain.
“It will be based more like MSNBC in America, which is on the left, and Fox [News], which is on the right … They don’t do rolling news. They do news when it breaks, but they don’t do continuous rolling news.
...
Despite making the comparison with Fox News himself, Mr Neil rejected the idea the new channel would play host to a series of right-wing rants.
“I am as neutral and as impartial as anybody on the BBC,” said the veteran, who is also chairman of the company which owns the right-wing political magazine The Spectator.
I love the journalist spin...he compared it to fox news, he did you know...when the direct quote doesn't quite say that, he compares it to us news networks such as Fox and MSNBC.
The push from the media is GB News = Fox News. It has been the narrative they have been pushing since before it even launched.
I notice Andy Burnham is shattering the progressive alliance this morning and telling Nicola to get stuffed with her anti-English travel bans.
If Labour want to get back most of the Red Wall and make inroads in lower middle class and working class Tory seats in the North and Midlands and have a chance of a majority any time within the next decade then Burnham is probably their only chance, hence he is ensuring he keeps his distance from the SNP too as well as diehard anti Brexiteers.
Starmer however as I posted earlier could become PM in 2023/4 even if the Tories won most seats in a hung parliament as a puppet PM propped up by the LDs and the SNP
Perfectly sound analysis - but "puppet" is an inaccurate and jaundiced description for such an outcome.
Maybe but if Starmer became PM with the Tories still having most seats and reliant on the LDs and SNP he would be the weakest UK PM since WW2 in terms of his position in the Commons
I notice Andy Burnham is shattering the progressive alliance this morning and telling Nicola to get stuffed with her anti-English travel bans.
If Labour want to get back most of the Red Wall and make inroads in lower middle class and working class Tory seats in the North and Midlands and have a chance of a majority any time within the next decade then Burnham is probably their only chance, hence he is ensuring he keeps his distance from the SNP too as well as diehard anti Brexiteers.
Starmer however as I posted earlier could become PM in 2023/4 even if the Tories won most seats in a hung parliament as a puppet PM propped up by the LDs and the SNP
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
It’s an impressive sounding headline, but is it really?
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Where are all these unvaccinated people? I do not know a single person in their 40s and 50s who hasn't been jabbed. Either they are staying very quiet or there is a geographical/socio-demographical variation. I suspect the latter. Therefore you may well get spikes in those groups who have not been jabbed.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.
No-one can be certain until we have an official announcement.
But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.
Then two weeks to allow for full effect.
So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
It’s an impressive sounding headline, but is it really?
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Where are all these unvaccinated people? I do not know a single person in their 40s and 50s who hasn't been jabbed. Either they are staying very quiet or there is a geographical/socio-demographical variation. I suspect the latter. Therefore you may well get spikes in those groups who have not been jabbed.
I actually only know one person who is reluctant. My 27yo niece has concerns about any potential fertility issues but is coming round to the idea I believe.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Covid mainly kills people who would shortly have died anyway, and since they can't die twice, they're not dying again now.
COVID precautions have massively reduced flu as well, IIRC.
The medical issues that are not being attended to are often slow burner issues - such as cancers. They will be having their effect over the next few years....
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
It’s an impressive sounding headline, but is it really?
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Where are all these unvaccinated people? I do not know a single person in their 40s and 50s who hasn't been jabbed. Either they are staying very quiet or there is a geographical/socio-demographical variation. I suspect the latter. Therefore you may well get spikes in those groups who have not been jabbed.
There are still some surprising difference in unexpected areas. I don't think its a secret about high ethnic minority areas, but there are other places either their roll out hasn't been as efficient or maybe vaccine hesitancy means numbers not as high e.g. somebody linked to South West case numbers yesterday, there are pockets there that are behind the national average.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.
No-one can be certain until we have an official announcement.
But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.
Then two weeks to allow for full effect.
So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.
How then is it a 'terminus date', if there will be continued restrictions? Are you swallowing this shite wholesale?
I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.
For example, of the following:
1. A strengthening Remain identity. 2. People seeing through Johnson. 3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence. 4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North. 5. Nimby opposition to HS2. 6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.
I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.
But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.
Lab+LD 2021 is the same as Lab+LD 2019 Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote
Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority
Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that
Question is- what do those voters do next time? Go back to the '92 to '97 Parliament, and you had Conservative commentators making a similar observation, and concluding that it would be just fine come the General Election. Indeed, I'm pretty sure there was a column in The Telegraph by a hack called Boris making that very point, something about how it don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing.
Pissed-off government supporters might come back for the real thing, but the record on that is patchy. And if the Lib-Lab voter exchange is flowing in a way that it hasn't since 2010, that's significant in itself.
Yeah, I'd say they will come back at the GE no problem. Sir Keir is no Tony Blair, and Boris has a 74 seat bigger majority then John Major had to play with
He is no Corbyn either and the main reason the Tories held their southern Remain seats in 2019 was fear of Corbyn.
Hence the Tories are still holding and even expanding their Red Wall Seats which Boris won in 2019 from Labour on a 'get Brexit done' ticket but are starting to lose some of their Remain seats in the Home Counties to the LDs now Tory Remainers do not fear Starmer as they feared Corbyn
You say "he is no Corbyn" to do down JC, butSir Keir isn't doing any better than Corbyn ratings wise, and I doubt he will ever get 40% in a GE like him either
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Agreed, though we are in an element of locked down as our ability to leave the country is seriously constrained.
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
Opinion led != just fox News. MSNBC is opinion led, so is most of CNN prime time.
Andrew Neil denies GB News will be a British Fox and says those who spread conspiracy theories will face disciplinary action
That is an easy, inaccurate shorthand for what we are trying to do. In terms of format we are like Fox but we won’t be like Fox in that they come from a hard right disinformation fake news conspiracy agenda.
Who is Andrew Neil threatening with disciplinary action? GB News insiders, presumably, making comparisons with Fox.
What is wrong with you this morning, can't you read. He is saying those that push fake news conspiracy theories, which again MSNBC has had a few issues with in recent years.
The only people pushing the its Fox News are the other media outlets. Neil has consistently said no it isn't, to which fhe media writes pieces new Fox News type channel launching.
Good afternoon. If Andrew Neil is threatening disciplinary action, he must be referring to GB News employees. And that is my point. In the past, Andrew Neil (and presumably those he now threatens) made the comparison with Fox News, and it is that comparison, even if Neil sought later to qualify or withdraw it, which alarmed (some) people into opposition.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
A friend of mine met English tourists in Galloway who expressed real reservations about what sort of welcome they would receive in Scotland. They, at least, had come but how many had thought the same and decided not to bother? This absurd anti-English mindset of resentment and grudge is not only epically stupid, it is also economically damaging. But the SNP supporters seem to lap it up and for Nicola that is all that matters.
Everybody was very friendly to English-sounding me in Glasgow last night. And very cheerful in general about how they had had or were shortly to get their jags.
Good to hear that luxury car sales are clearly booming north of the border.
Indeed, and one is not enough; has to be the full Prescott
lol. When will Sturgeon’s fans hear the reedy music of feartiness?
If only there was a way for a brave Unionist pm to call the fearties’ bluff and put the issue to bed.
Who are the "fearties" here - the party or the people? The people have made clear six times in seven years that they don't want independence. In such circumstances, holding another referendum would be a misuse of public funds. If there's a vote in which a majority of voters support candidates who promise another indyref, that's when the British government should grant a section 30 request. The party with its Green backers can dissolve Holyrood any time it likes to see if it can get a mandate for precisely that. It should either do it and see what happens, or STFU and stop blaming the English for everything, whipping up xenophobia among those whom some analysts euphemistically call "non-graduates".
I see the brave lads are back to one of their favourite thumb-on-the-scales exercises
Funny how they keep telling us we’re not allowed a referendum, while simultaneously micro-managing the details.
I wouldn't assume that Scots living in rUK are massively pro-Union anyway. I'm not, and my sense from talking to others is that for a lot of people the calculations changed after 2016. Speaking personally, I see mostly upside for me from Scottish independence. I get a Scottish/EU passport. I get to stick it to the Tories. And I'm not personally liable for the fiscal costs of an independent Scotland, so if it doesn't work out well I'm not on the hook. This all sounds pretty selfish and irresponsible, of course - which is why I wouldn't give the vote on this to Scots in rUK. But if they do give me the vote, I'd definitely use it! I wonder what the polling says on this, I don't remember seeing any.
Of course, if they gave the English a vote Scotland would be independent straight away.
So why are you so scared of a referendum then.
I don’t think people in England are scared, only the SNP and UK government.
Plus, Sturgeons too busy picking a fight with Manchester
We Tories won a majority in 2019 on a manifesto commitment of respecting the result of the once in a generation 2014 referendum.
As long as we Tories remain in power with a majority at Westminster we will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP and Scottish Nationalists can do about it
Which traitors in the cabinet do you think are pushing for a referendum and extending the vote to England based Scots?
Some weak, wet blanket Ministers, however today's report has no evidence whatsoever the PM is considering allowing a vote and on that basis we should remain of the view he will stick to his position of refusing indyref2.
Refusing a legal indyref2 is the most important task of this government for the rest of its term in power
PB is gonna be a hoot the day de Pfeffel caves.
He won't, Boris does not want to go down in history as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland rather than the architect of Brexit he currently is.
Given Sturgeon has ruled out UDI, Boris can refuse indyref2 forever and Sturgeon will not do anything about it
It’s not Sturgeon that will be weighing on the mind of Unionist strategists. It is Scottish public opinion.
I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.
For example, of the following:
1. A strengthening Remain identity. 2. People seeing through Johnson. 3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence. 4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North. 5. Nimby opposition to HS2. 6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.
I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.
But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.
Lab+LD 2021 is the same as Lab+LD 2019 Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote
Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority
Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that
Plausible. Although of course that's probably now you doing what I'm saying everyone else is doing - picking the reasons you like the most.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
I don't believe for a second the "average life left for people who died of Covid" was ten years claim since that is done from taking one average away from another average, but the people who died weren't average.
The virus disproportionately killed people with conditions, who were sick and especially those in care homes - and life expectancy for someone in a care home is not ten years.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
We really need some people coming out and rebalancing the way risk is now being evaluated. Everything has now become too risky.
I was certainly one last year for hard and fast lockdowns and certainly wanted the borders closed. But we now have the real world evidence of the vaccine effectiveness, the risk factors are radically and rapidly changing. 10 days after your 2nd dose, you really are at more risk of basically every other disease under the sun and we don't stop life because half of us will get cancer at some point.
We don't want to be importing loads of new cases yet, especially as we do need to get the second doses done, but we do need to start shifting the debate. 98% effective against hospitalisation, flu jab doesn't give you that and we never stop the clocks for it in the psst.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
It’s an impressive sounding headline, but is it really?
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Where are all these unvaccinated people? I do not know a single person in their 40s and 50s who hasn't been jabbed. Either they are staying very quiet or there is a geographical/socio-demographical variation. I suspect the latter. Therefore you may well get spikes in those groups who have not been jabbed.
I actually only know one person who is reluctant. My 27yo niece has concerns about any potential fertility issues but is coming round to the idea I believe.
I suspect in general (outside of certain low take up groups where there’s possibly less of a stigma) people who aren’t getting jabbed aren’t saying. Watch out for the one who keeps quiet in a group or who pauses/mumbles an answer when everyone is chatting about when/how they got their jabs.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
We'll obviously it doesn't. The default option is always to assume that the Prime Minister is talking nonsense, unless and until actual events prove otherwise. He might as well say nothing.
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
The actual answer is, er... vaccination.
The local GP (the proactive one) is already talking about trying for the record in terms of flu jabs for this winter.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.
No-one can be certain until we have an official announcement.
But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.
Then two weeks to allow for full effect.
So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.
How then is it a 'terminus date', if there will be continued restrictions? Are you swallowing this shite wholesale?
People have been battered down by the virus and also by the government over the past year or so. Don't be surprised if they develop Stockholm Syndrome.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
G, Scotland is full to bursting with English tourists at present. She specifically said travel from Scotland to Manchester where the rates are high, perfectly acceptable and unenforceable. That balloon Burnham had similar on his own website, just another windbag trying to get his mush on TV.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.
No-one can be certain until we have an official announcement.
But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.
Then two weeks to allow for full effect.
So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.
How then is it a 'terminus date', if there will be continued restrictions? Are you swallowing this shite wholesale?
It isn't really a 'terminus date'. There needs to be greater clarification as to what will happen on 19 July and what won't. But we won't get that until the time of the announcement on or around 12 July as there is some uncertainty as to what extent the remaining restrictions can be released. The government may say 'yes the restrictions on businesses are removed but we still need some NPIs - non pharmaceutical interventions - eg masks for public health purposes'.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
lol. When will Sturgeon’s fans hear the reedy music of feartiness?
If only there was a way for a brave Unionist pm to call the fearties’ bluff and put the issue to bed.
Who are the "fearties" here - the party or the people? The people have made clear six times in seven years that they don't want independence. In such circumstances, holding another referendum would be a misuse of public funds. If there's a vote in which a majority of voters support candidates who promise another indyref, that's when the British government should grant a section 30 request. The party with its Green backers can dissolve Holyrood any time it likes to see if it can get a mandate for precisely that. It should either do it and see what happens, or STFU and stop blaming the English for everything, whipping up xenophobia among those whom some analysts euphemistically call "non-graduates".
Those six votes were all legitimate.
You were told on the last thread by at least three posters that your arithmetic is incorrect. You failed to respond to any of us.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
True, although if you drove on the m1 at 80 mph to get there you would also be breaking the law. We’re not in lockdown, but some restrictions remain. Life for many is broadly unaffected. We’re nearly there...
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
We really need some people coming out and rebalancing the way risk is now being evaluated. Everything has now become too risky.
I was certainly one last year for hard and fast lockdowns and certainly wanted the borders closed. But we now have the real world evidence of the vaccine effectiveness, the risk factors are radically and rapidly changing. 10 days after your 2nd dose, you really are at more risk of basically every other disease under the sun and we don't stop life because half of us will get cancer at some point.
We don't want to be importing loads of new cases yet, especially as we do need to get the second doses done, but we do need to start shifting the debate. 98% effective against hospitalisation, flu jab doesn't give you that and we never stop the clocks for it in the psst.
I fear we are too far gone for that. Look at the polls.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Surely that would count as incitement? Getting that lot in a single place?
Let alone inviting all 3.6 million SeanTs at the same time....
Another day, another guardian piece about how GB News is a threat to democracy....i suppose it makes a change to articles about wild swimming....
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
Alastair Stewart @AlStewartOBE · 1h The @guardian wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on @gbnews . I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity. Nasty stuff!
The hyperbole that the likes of the Guardian are throwing at it is laughable...GB News biggest crime is really that it is naff and actually not really very different to the other offerings. Its basically what Talk Radio already does. There is no real expert insight, no high level debate etc, it is just loads of filler with some Talk Radio type ranting.
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
Perhaps GB News is hoist by its own petard if it compared itself to Fox News when it was being set up. Seems its opponents were listening, not just its backers.
Did they? Do you have a link? Because all I heard was Andrew Neil saying people accuse us of wanting to be Fox News and we absolutely aren't going to be anything like that.
This Andrew Neil?
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
Opinion led != just fox News. MSNBC is opinion led, so is most of CNN prime time.
Andrew Neil denies GB News will be a British Fox and says those who spread conspiracy theories will face disciplinary action
That is an easy, inaccurate shorthand for what we are trying to do. In terms of format we are like Fox but we won’t be like Fox in that they come from a hard right disinformation fake news conspiracy agenda.
Who is Andrew Neil threatening with disciplinary action? GB News insiders, presumably, making comparisons with Fox.
What is wrong with you this morning, can't you read. He is saying those that push fake news conspiracy theories, which again MSNBC has had a few issues with in recent years.
The only people pushing the its Fox News are the other media outlets. Neil has consistently said no it isn't, to which fhe media writes pieces new Fox News type channel launching.
Good afternoon. If Andrew Neil is threatening disciplinary action, he must be referring to GB News employees. And that is my point. In the past, Andrew Neil (and presumably those he now threatens) made the comparison with Fox News, and it is that comparison, even if Neil sought later to qualify or withdraw it, which alarmed (some) people into opposition.
No, it was clear journalist setup questions...your the new Fox News, aren't, just say it, go on....and his answer is always very clear the US has news networks across the political spectrum from MSNBC to Fox that have opinion led shows..... journalist writes headline, Andrew Neil compares GB News to Fox.
And they are doing the same now.
Its the equivalent to the old when did you stop beating your wife question.
I have actually seen the video interviews like this with Neil and as described above is how it goes down. The interviewer basically just keeps saying Fox News, Fox News, Fox News. Its gotcha journalism.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Well I'd risk that for such a soiree. Wouldn't even hesitate. Tough sell to Scarlett, though, I'm thinking.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
Read my post. Liberty is coming back, save perhaps some clinical settings.
Where are all these unvaccinated people? I do not know a single person in their 40s and 50s who hasn't been jabbed. Either they are staying very quiet or there is a geographical/socio-demographical variation. I suspect the latter. Therefore you may well get spikes in those groups who have not been jabbed.
The numbers tell a different story.
I realise for some reason @Philip_Thompson isn't keen on the NIMS population estimates but as far as I am concerned they probably underestimate the actual adult population in places like Newham.
As of last week, 110,000 adults over 30 in Newham had yet to be vaccinated - that's 44% of the adult population in that age range. It was encouraging to see so many at the pop-up vaccination centres at Stratford and elsewhere over the weekend and this should be reflected in the figures this week though the majority of these will be first dose Pfizer.
As an aside, Mrs Stodge's parents in NZ (in their 80s) were vaccinated last week and have been told it will be 3-4 weeks between vaccinations so it begs the question why we can't do the same.
Johnson sounds "positive" about 19/7 but he was also positive about 21/6 four weeks ago so we'll see.
As for influenza, I don't know - I'll happily have the flu jab if it's offered this winter.
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
The actual answer is, er... vaccination.
The local GP (the proactive one) is already talking about trying for the record in terms of flu jabs for this winter.
I was recently speaking to a doctor who told me that one problem they have is that so much resource has been spent over the past eighteen months on covid vaccines that the normal effort in researching the year's flu virus (which starts in East Asia each year, apparently - why, I wonder? Why would flu move east to west?) hasn't been there so this year's flu jabs will be a little behind the curve.
I mention this only because I find it interesting, not because it supports any particular course of action.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Agreed, though we are in an element of locked down as our ability to leave the country is seriously constrained.
Yes, "locked down" has a touch more salience from that perspective. Give you that.
I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.
For example, of the following:
1. A strengthening Remain identity. 2. People seeing through Johnson. 3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence. 4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North. 5. Nimby opposition to HS2. 6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.
I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.
But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.
Lab+LD 2021 is the same as Lab+LD 2019 Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote
Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority
Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that
Plausible. Although of course that's probably now you doing what I'm saying everyone else is doing - picking the reasons you like the most.
If the 21k LD+Lab last week weren't almost exclusively the 21k motivated to vote against Boris in 2019, what were those 2019ers doing last Thursday after the LDs had been force feeding leaflets down their throats for the past month?!! Not bothered? Wouldn't vote to embarrass Boris in a by election? I just cant believe that
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
True, although if you drove on the m1 at 80 mph to get there you would also be breaking the law. We’re not in lockdown, but some restrictions remain. Life for many is broadly unaffected. We’re nearly there...
You believe mandating by law the number of people you are allowed in your house is the same as breaking the speed limit.
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
The actual answer is, er... vaccination.
The local GP (the proactive one) is already talking about trying for the record in terms of flu jabs for this winter.
Vaccination was supposed to be the answer, but it now seems that every time one vaccination campaign ends we still aren't free because there has to be another. And another. And another. We're entitled to be concerned that there will always be one more excuse for carrying on with rules and bullying and nannying.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Well I'd risk that for such a soiree. Wouldn't even hesitate. Tough sell to Scarlett, though, I'm thinking.
OK to hell with it, include @malcolmg also. That should convince her.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
I just went off the order you chose. I figured you were between contrarian and kinabalu, which could be interesting in its own right.
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
We really need some people coming out and rebalancing the way risk is now being evaluated. Everything has now become too risky.
I was certainly one last year for hard and fast lockdowns and certainly wanted the borders closed. But we now have the real world evidence of the vaccine effectiveness, the risk factors are radically and rapidly changing. 10 days after your 2nd dose, you really are at more risk of basically every other disease under the sun and we don't stop life because half of us will get cancer at some point.
We don't want to be importing loads of new cases yet, especially as we do need to get the second doses done, but we do need to start shifting the debate. 98% effective against hospitalisation, flu jab doesn't give you that and we never stop the clocks for it in the psst.
It's not clear to me why we aren't listening to Chris Hopson – boss of NHS Providers. Hopson has been one of the most conservative voices on Covid yet has been saying yet again today that the severity of this wave is orders of magnitude below earlier waves.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
If we are still using trace and trace - backed by legal penalties for non-adherence - then the road map (amended version) will not have been adhered to. All legal sanctions on domestic life must go.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
It's a hard no from me.
Would still be illegal, sadly, if less chat about carburettors.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Noted. But it's at mine so I'll be doing the seating plan.
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
The actual answer is, er... vaccination.
The local GP (the proactive one) is already talking about trying for the record in terms of flu jabs for this winter.
Vaccination was supposed to be the answer, but it now seems that every time one vaccination campaign ends we still aren't free because there has to be another. And another. And another. We're entitled to be concerned that there will always be one more excuse for carrying on with rules and bullying and nannying.
You are aware that in normal times, we vaccinate about a third of the population against the Flu?
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.
No-one can be certain until we have an official announcement.
But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.
Then two weeks to allow for full effect.
So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.
How then is it a 'terminus date', if there will be continued restrictions? Are you swallowing this shite wholesale?
It isn't really a 'terminus date'. There needs to be greater clarification as to what will happen on 19 July and what won't. But we won't get that until the time of the announcement on or around 12 July as there is some uncertainty as to what extent the remaining restrictions can be released. The government may say 'yes the restrictions on businesses are removed but we still need some NPIs - non pharmaceutical interventions - eg masks for public health purposes'.
Sure. Then why are the government calling it a terminus date? It's not.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
Hotels of derisive laughter is good, but was meant to be howls and I can't edit on a phone.
Sitting on Mallaig pier in the sunshine eating a Lorne sausage bap with brown sauce. These restrictions are hell on earth.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
I just went off the order you chose. I figured you were between contrarian and kinabalu, which could be interesting in its own right.
LOL as @Malmesbury has noted, we would all be crowded out by @Leon.
Last year almost everyone on here conceded the principle that there could be good reasons to suspend our liberty.
Once you concede that point, its game over. Reason after reason will be dreamed up. You will never be free.
Now people are starting to discover that you never, ever trade liberty for the promise of safety. Ever.
You will lose your liberty, and as the 12-million strong NHS queues show, you will not get safety.
What total bollocks. There has always been a tension between the rights of the tribe/society vs the rights of the individual. Because we are a social species. There is no such thing as total freedom, nor total authoritarianism. The pendulum swings back and forth, but does not last long at the far ends of the swings.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
I absolutely do not accept it. Some things will not be "part of life".
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
Flu.
When will this ever end?
The actual answer is, er... vaccination.
The local GP (the proactive one) is already talking about trying for the record in terms of flu jabs for this winter.
Then why are public health bods waving around the idea of lockdowns for flu? It's like a comfort blanket for them – they just can't bear the idea of being without lockdowns and masks.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
Whilst these factors must be true it is also possible that they are currently being offset by the benefits of increased hygiene, the use of masks in public places preventing the spread of many other conditions, ditto for social distancing and the reduction/elimination of large crowds.
It seems vanishingly unlikely to me, for example, that Boris's famous happy birthday x2 video of hand washing prevented a detectable level of Covid transmission but it does seem to have stopped a lot else reducing the pressure on the NHS as a result.
In the longer run I would expect the factors you identify to overwhelm the factors that I have which will diminish as we come out of lockdown and become more complacent but it is not impossible that we will enjoy a couple more months of below average deaths until then.
Edit, in Scotland at least there has also been a significant reduction in the quantity of alcohol being consumed. Not sure if that is a UK wide phenomena.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Noted. But it's at mine so I'll be doing the seating plan.
Do you have somewhere for Dura Ace to leave his BMX?
Comments
Bring on the care robots.
Angus Robertson MSP 7/2
John Swinney MSP 6/1
Kate Forbes MSP 9/1
Joanna Cherry QC MP 12/1
Anas Sarwar MSP (Lab) 12/1
Humza Yousaf MSP 12/1
Keith Brown MSP 16/1
Douglas Ross MP MSP (Con) 18/1
Given that we know a large number of people have left the country in 2020 so won't be getting jabbed - and given that we know people who have moved house etc can be registered twice under NIMS - why would that be closer to the truth?
https://order-order.com/2021/06/21/cummings-and-caroles-substack-showdown/
ONS 2019 is just a static dataset.
Andrew Neil has claimed his new 24-hour news channel GB News will be similar to the opinion-led US networks – featuring anchors with “attitude” and “a bit of edge”.
The broadcaster announced last week he was leaving the BBC to become chairman of a US-funded operation, which aims to rival the Beeb and Sky News when it launches next year.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/andrew-neil-gb-news-us-style-anchors-fox-piers-morgan-b666720.html
ETA that is as far as I can read without registering.
Starmer however as I posted earlier could become PM in 2023/4 even if the Tories won most seats in a hung parliament as a puppet PM propped up by the LDs and the SNP
Funny how people are keen to omit the MSNBC portion of that sentence. I wonder why?
Andrew Neil denies GB News will be a British Fox and says those who spread conspiracy theories will face disciplinary action
That is an easy, inaccurate shorthand for what we are trying to do. In terms of format we are like Fox but we won’t be like Fox in that they come from a hard right disinformation fake news conspiracy agenda.
https://www.metro.co.uk/2021/06/09/gb-news-will-not-be-a-british-fox-says-andrew-neil-14743109/amp/
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Link (select page 2/9 for graph):
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
"Though Zayd said Galloway wasn't "perfect", he said the veteran Scot's policies were better than Labour's in terms of promising to invest in the local community and his support for the Palestinians."
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-batley-spen-by-election-palestine-issue-labour-dealbreaker
“It will be based more like MSNBC in America, which is on the left, and Fox [News], which is on the right … They don’t do rolling news. They do news when it breaks, but they don’t do continuous rolling news.
Its clear it was a journalist setting up for a quote, by specifically asked by the journalist, your just going to be Fox News aren't you. To which he replied no, we are going for the US type model used by left and right.
That isn't as you claim pitching it as Fox. Its just the same smear as been used now.
“There would be no point doing what is already being done pretty well with the existing incumbents. It will not be a rolling news channel,” he told Good Morning Britain.
“It will be based more like MSNBC in America, which is on the left, and Fox [News], which is on the right … They don’t do rolling news. They do news when it breaks, but they don’t do continuous rolling news.
...
Despite making the comparison with Fox News himself, Mr Neil rejected the idea the new channel would play host to a series of right-wing rants.
“I am as neutral and as impartial as anybody on the BBC,” said the veteran, who is also chairman of the company which owns the right-wing political magazine The Spectator.
Could they vote I wonder?
The only people pushing the its Fox News are the other media outlets. Neil has consistently said no it isn't, to which fhe media writes pieces new Fox News type channel launching.
Hence the Tories are still holding and even expanding their Red Wall Seats which Boris won in 2019 from Labour on a 'get Brexit done' ticket but are starting to lose some of their Remain seats in the Home Counties to the LDs now Tory Remainers do not fear Starmer as they feared Corbyn
Given Sturgeon has ruled out UDI, Boris can refuse indyref2 forever and Sturgeon will not do anything about it
The push from the media is GB News = Fox News. It has been the narrative they have been pushing since before it even launched.
But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.
Then two weeks to allow for full effect.
So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.
The medical issues that are not being attended to are often slow burner issues - such as cancers. They will be having their effect over the next few years....
Flu.
When will this ever end?
Those six votes were all legitimate.
But you keep digging pal.
I don't believe for a second the "average life left for people who died of Covid" was ten years claim since that is done from taking one average away from another average, but the people who died weren't average.
The virus disproportionately killed people with conditions, who were sick and especially those in care homes - and life expectancy for someone in a care home is not ten years.
I was certainly one last year for hard and fast lockdowns and certainly wanted the borders closed. But we now have the real world evidence of the vaccine effectiveness, the risk factors are radically and rapidly changing. 10 days after your 2nd dose, you really are at more risk of basically every other disease under the sun and we don't stop life because half of us will get cancer at some point.
We don't want to be importing loads of new cases yet, especially as we do need to get the second doses done, but we do need to start shifting the debate. 98% effective against hospitalisation, flu jab doesn't give you that and we never stop the clocks for it in the psst.
The local GP (the proactive one) is already talking about trying for the record in terms of flu jabs for this winter.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
Let alone inviting all 3.6 million SeanTs at the same time....
And they are doing the same now.
Its the equivalent to the old when did you stop beating your wife question.
I have actually seen the video interviews like this with Neil and as described above is how it goes down. The interviewer basically just keeps saying Fox News, Fox News, Fox News. Its gotcha journalism.
I realise for some reason @Philip_Thompson isn't keen on the NIMS population estimates but as far as I am concerned they probably underestimate the actual adult population in places like Newham.
As of last week, 110,000 adults over 30 in Newham had yet to be vaccinated - that's 44% of the adult population in that age range. It was encouraging to see so many at the pop-up vaccination centres at Stratford and elsewhere over the weekend and this should be reflected in the figures this week though the majority of these will be first dose Pfizer.
As an aside, Mrs Stodge's parents in NZ (in their 80s) were vaccinated last week and have been told it will be 3-4 weeks between vaccinations so it begs the question why we can't do the same.
Johnson sounds "positive" about 19/7 but he was also positive about 21/6 four weeks ago so we'll see.
As for influenza, I don't know - I'll happily have the flu jab if it's offered this winter.
I mention this only because I find it interesting, not because it supports any particular course of action.
Jesus we're never getting out of this.
Once you concede that point, its game over. Reason after reason will be dreamed up. You will never be free.
Now people are starting to discover that you never, ever trade liberty for the promise of safety. Ever.
You will lose your liberty, and as the 12-million strong NHS queues show, you will not get safety.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398
2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
Sitting on Mallaig pier in the sunshine eating a Lorne sausage bap with brown sauce. These restrictions are hell on earth.
It seems vanishingly unlikely to me, for example, that Boris's famous happy birthday x2 video of hand washing prevented a detectable level of Covid transmission but it does seem to have stopped a lot else reducing the pressure on the NHS as a result.
In the longer run I would expect the factors you identify to overwhelm the factors that I have which will diminish as we come out of lockdown and become more complacent but it is not impossible that we will enjoy a couple more months of below average deaths until then.
Edit, in Scotland at least there has also been a significant reduction in the quantity of alcohol being consumed. Not sure if that is a UK wide phenomena.