I notice Andy Burnham is shattering the progressive alliance this morning and telling Nicola to get stuffed with her anti-English travel bans.
If Labour want to get back most of the Red Wall and make inroads in lower middle class and working class Tory seats in the North and Midlands and have a chance of a majority any time within the next decade then Burnham is probably their only chance, hence he is ensuring he keeps his distance from the SNP too as well as diehard anti Brexiteers.
Starmer however as I posted earlier could become PM in 2023/4 even if the Tories won most seats in a hung parliament as a puppet PM propped up by the LDs and the SNP
Remember this puppet PM propped up by the LDs?
Cameron won comfortably most seats in 2010, Starmer would likely not have won most seats in 2024 if he needed LD and SNP support to become PM
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
Imagine there were no such dissident voices. Imagine that everyone cheered to the rafters the government's every restriction and new imposition. Imagine, if you can bear it, floating off the Scottish coast as you are right now, that there were no Steve Baker.
We would be stuck like this for months and months and years.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
I just went off the order you chose. I figured you were between contrarian and kinabalu, which could be interesting in its own right.
No, I'm in charge. It's at mine. I'll let you know.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
I will only go and change the name cards once you've put them out.
I see the brave lads are back to one of their favourite thumb-on-the-scales exercises
Funny how they keep telling us we’re not allowed a referendum, while simultaneously micro-managing the details.
I wouldn't assume that Scots living in rUK are massively pro-Union anyway. I'm not, and my sense from talking to others is that for a lot of people the calculations changed after 2016. Speaking personally, I see mostly upside for me from Scottish independence. I get a Scottish/EU passport. I get to stick it to the Tories. And I'm not personally liable for the fiscal costs of an independent Scotland, so if it doesn't work out well I'm not on the hook. This all sounds pretty selfish and irresponsible, of course - which is why I wouldn't give the vote on this to Scots in rUK. But if they do give me the vote, I'd definitely use it! I wonder what the polling says on this, I don't remember seeing any.
Of course, if they gave the English a vote Scotland would be independent straight away.
So why are you so scared of a referendum then.
I don’t think people in England are scared, only the SNP and UK government.
Plus, Sturgeons too busy picking a fight with Manchester
We Tories won a majority in 2019 on a manifesto commitment of respecting the result of the once in a generation 2014 referendum.
As long as we Tories remain in power with a majority at Westminster we will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP and Scottish Nationalists can do about it
Which traitors in the cabinet do you think are pushing for a referendum and extending the vote to England based Scots?
Some weak, wet blanket Ministers, however today's report has no evidence whatsoever the PM is considering allowing a vote and on that basis we should remain of the view he will stick to his position of refusing indyref2.
Refusing a legal indyref2 is the most important task of this government for the rest of its term in power
PB is gonna be a hoot the day de Pfeffel caves.
He won't, Boris does not want to go down in history as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland rather than the architect of Brexit he currently is.
Given Sturgeon has ruled out UDI, Boris can refuse indyref2 forever and Sturgeon will not do anything about it
It’s not Sturgeon that will be weighing on the mind of Unionist strategists. It is Scottish public opinion.
But you keep digging pal.
It isn't for Boris, he knows he won a majority of 80 in 2019 with just 6 Scottish Tory MPs, even if he had 0 MPs in Scotland he could stay UK PM so why would he care about Scottish public opinion? Better for Boris to ignore the SNP forever than go down as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland.
Plus only 37 per cent of Scots believe there should be a referendum before the end of 2023 anyway
Of course the flu jab doesn’t always work. Sometimes they pick the wrong strain to protect against.
I think one of the biggest protectors against serious consequences of getting flu is previously acquired levels of immunity (through infection or vaccination). As is increasingly likely to be the case with Covid.
You’ll be quite likely to catch it - but it won’t be that serious. Which is something which the focus on case numbers and vaccinations is doing its best to overlook.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
No, I'm not having that. Two of my daughters are currently at home off school - not because they have covid, but because a classmate has. They're now not supposed to leave the house except to get tested. The oldest is now going to miss her class's end-of-primary school residential. We are SO far from not locked down. We've *sigh* done what we're supposed to and taken them to be tested, but if either of them come back positive we'll then have to stay in for ten days. Even my double-jabbed wife. I supported vaccination, but not because it's jolly to get jabbed in the arm; I supported it because if we vaccinate the vulnerable we can get rid of all this shit. We've vaccinated the vulnerable. Why is this shit still here? And this shit also involves having to wearing mask in shops, invite more than one family to our house, leaving our details wherever we go, being hectored and patronised at my own expense - all seen by some as costless but actually imposing a very great cost indeed. The impositions we are under would have seemed absolutely unconscionable at any point before January 2020. Many of us think they still are.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
I just went off the order you chose. I figured you were between contrarian and kinabalu, which could be interesting in its own right.
LOL as @Malmesbury has noted, we would all be crowded out by @Leon.
Hold it at the Blind Beggar pub, or on the balcony of the old Iranian embassy.
Both, according to sworn testimony from many, many people, have a capacity measured in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
Hint:
The joke is on the stupid boobies who swallowed everything the government said, went into house arrest, turned themselves into pin cushions, are still not free, and face an enormous burgling of their remaining wealth in the autumn when the bill comes around.
If there are 'hotels' of derisive laughter, its at them.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
I will only go and change the name cards once you've put them out.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
Can't believe you're having this party without me, mate. Especially since you're inviting one of the sexiest stars of our age. As well as Scarlet Johhansson.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
I just went off the order you chose. I figured you were between contrarian and kinabalu, which could be interesting in its own right.
LOL as @Malmesbury has noted, we would all be crowded out by @Leon.
Not sure I'm happy to have Leon at all. He has a mouth on him and I don't always like what comes out of it.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
True, although if you drove on the m1 at 80 mph to get there you would also be breaking the law. We’re not in lockdown, but some restrictions remain. Life for many is broadly unaffected. We’re nearly there...
You believe mandating by law the number of people you are allowed in your house is the same as breaking the speed limit.
Jesus we're never getting out of this.
Extreme measures during a 1 in 100 year pandemic. Should no longer be in place. I would have lifted all measures today. The point was about people’s behaviour. Most people will not bat an eyelid if you have seven to dinner. Or if you touch 80 on the M1. I hate the restrictions but have seen the basis up till now, but no longer. But we are not in lockdown in th3 sense of March 2019, or jan 2020.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
Will Vallance or Whitty or some other SAGE members be telling us whether it was on their advice that Boris Johnson said the rise in cases in Cornwall was unrelated to the G7 conference?
The prime minister's press spokesman:
"Obviously we don’t accept this claim. Attendees going to the G7 were tested before arriving and throughout the summit, and we’re not aware of any cases of transmission to local residents.
We always said that, following the move to step 3, that we will see cases rising across the country. That is what we’re seeing playing out."
That's dodging the issue and crap logic. Let's hear what advice Johnson has sought and received.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
Hint:
The joke is on the stupid boobies who swallowed everything the government said, went into house arrest, turned themselves into pin cushions, are still not free, and face an enormous burgling of their remaining wealth in the autumn when the bill comes around.
If there are 'hotels' of derisive laughter, its at them.
So should we have had the first lockdown, yes/no?
Hint: no means I would have been fine with another 100,000 deaths, and yes means My judgment on whether any given lockdown is justified or not is entirely worthless.
It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.
Given the number of Scottish politics enthusiasts here, if Sturgeon were run over by a tram tomorrow, who would be the leading contenders to replace her? Is it certain to be a MSP and not an MP?
Best prices - Next First Minister
Angus Robertson MSP 7/2 John Swinney MSP 6/1 Kate Forbes MSP 9/1 Joanna Cherry QC MP 12/1 Anas Sarwar MSP (Lab) 12/1 Humza Yousaf MSP 12/1 Keith Brown MSP 16/1 Douglas Ross MP MSP (Con) 18/1
Thanks - that's from OddsChecker, yes? If so, there's quite a mismatch with next SNP leader odds.
Will Vallance or Whitty or some other SAGE members be telling us whether it was on their advice that Boris Johnson said the rise in cases in Cornwall was unrelated to the G7 conference?
The prime minister's press spokesman:
"Obviously we don’t accept this claim. Attendees going to the G7 were tested before arriving and throughout the summit, and we’re not aware of any cases of transmission to local residents.
We always said that, following the move to step 3, that we will see cases rising across the country. That is what we’re seeing playing out."
That's dodging the issue and crap logic. Let's hear what advice Johnson has sought and received.
It might be the G7. But thousands and thousands of people have been visiting Cornwall over the past few weeks. The chances of the rise in positives in Cornwall is down to the G7 and the G7 alone seems pretty unlikely.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
I absolutely do not accept it. Some things will not be "part of life".
Annual COVID boosters, tests before hospital admission etc. This is what I’m talking about.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
Hint:
The joke is on the stupid boobies who swallowed everything the government said, went into house arrest, turned themselves into pin cushions, are still not free, and face an enormous burgling of their remaining wealth in the autumn when the bill comes around.
If there are 'hotels' of derisive laughter, its at them.
So should we have had the first lockdown, yes/no?
Hint: no means I would have been fine with another 100,000 deaths, and yes means My judgment on whether any given lockdown is justified or not is entirely worthless.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
Indeed I believe it if and when I see it. Anyone who believes anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth is an idiot. He is always optimistic, until he's suddenly not.
No-one can be certain until we have an official announcement.
But there appears to be some focus on 70% adults double vaccinated. We are at 60% now and should reach 70% by say 4 July.
Then two weeks to allow for full effect.
So on that basis 19 July seems on. But it will not be 'back to 2019'. The aim will be to allow businesses to return to full capacity eg no '1 metre +' in pubs. But things like masks on public transport, in shops will remain. Not sure about registering details at pubs and restaurants, it is unclear what value that adds.
How then is it a 'terminus date', if there will be continued restrictions? Are you swallowing this shite wholesale?
It isn't really a 'terminus date'. There needs to be greater clarification as to what will happen on 19 July and what won't. But we won't get that until the time of the announcement on or around 12 July as there is some uncertainty as to what extent the remaining restrictions can be released. The government may say 'yes the restrictions on businesses are removed but we still need some NPIs - non pharmaceutical interventions - eg masks for public health purposes'.
Sure. Then why are the government calling it a terminus date? It's not.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Noted. But it's at mine so I'll be doing the seating plan.
Do you have somewhere for Dura Ace to leave his BMX?
Yes. Front railings. But he's not coming. You can take his place if you like. Casual affair. Your usual West Ham shirt and trackie bottoms is fine.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
Imagine there were no such dissident voices. Imagine that everyone cheered to the rafters the government's every restriction and new imposition. Imagine, if you can bear it, floating off the Scottish coast as you are right now, that there were no Steve Baker.
We would be stuck like this for months and months and years.
The problem is that opponents of lockdown have been too easy to dismiss as cranks who would crash the health system, because too many of them have been cranks.
If they'd not been listened to perhaps we could have had a debate about appropriate use of state power that didn't dismiss the real threat that Covid posed.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.
For example, of the following:
1. A strengthening Remain identity. 2. People seeing through Johnson. 3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence. 4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North. 5. Nimby opposition to HS2. 6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.
I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.
But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.
Lab+LD 2021 is the same as Lab+LD 2019 Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote
Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority
Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that
Plausible. Although of course that's probably now you doing what I'm saying everyone else is doing - picking the reasons you like the most.
If the 21k LD+Lab last week weren't almost exclusively the 21k motivated to vote against Boris in 2019, what were those 2019ers doing last Thursday after the LDs had been force feeding leaflets down their throats for the past month?!! Not bothered? Wouldn't vote to embarrass Boris in a by election? I just cant believe that
It's just a bit too pat for me. There'll be some other movements netting off.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
G, Scotland is full to bursting with English tourists at present. She specifically said travel from Scotland to Manchester where the rates are high, perfectly acceptable and unenforceable. That balloon Burnham had similar on his own website, just another windbag trying to get his mush on TV.
I am certain that is an exaggeration, not least as the summer holidays have not started yet but her open hostility to England and the English is tedious and is very much we do not want you here
She, and the SNP, are doing untold harm to Scotland's image both for tourism and also business investment with her incessant and extreme anti English obsession
It is very sad to see it, but fortunately there are many Scots who are just embarrassed and ashamed by her as my family can attest to
Will Vallance or Whitty or some other SAGE members be telling us whether it was on their advice that Boris Johnson said the rise in cases in Cornwall was unrelated to the G7 conference?
The prime minister's press spokesman:
"Obviously we don’t accept this claim. Attendees going to the G7 were tested before arriving and throughout the summit, and we’re not aware of any cases of transmission to local residents.
We always said that, following the move to step 3, that we will see cases rising across the country. That is what we’re seeing playing out."
That's dodging the issue and crap logic. Let's hear what advice Johnson has sought and received.
The Cornwall CMO was on the Beeb saying it started before the G7 and thought the half term holiday a more likely source, spreading among unvaccinated hospitality workers
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Noted. But it's at mine so I'll be doing the seating plan.
Do you have somewhere for Dura Ace to leave his BMX?
Yes. Front railings. But he's not coming. You can take his place if you like. Casual affair. Your usual West Ham shirt and trackie bottoms is fine.
Haha I do often wear football shirts and tracksuit bottoms (Academy pants as they are now known), but the last Arsenal shirt I had was the 87/88 number. I am an obscure M&M clothing cheapo merchant, but did buy my first ever England shirt last month, ironically for the tournament that I am least bothered about England winning - a retro style from 1982
I actually think that the opponents of lockdown have done a lot to extend restrictions further, because they've been so successful at making every opponent of restrictions look like heartless idiots who would gladly put us all at risk of death in exchange for not being inconvenienced. They've discredited every reasonable argument with all of their nonsense.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
Can't believe you're having this party without me, mate. Especially since you're inviting one of the sexiest stars of our age. As well as Scarlet Johhansson.
No, no, no. You can come. You have to come. It was Topping trying to micro-manage and control everything as per usual. Sorted now.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
I think you have this backwards.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
G, Scotland is full to bursting with English tourists at present. She specifically said travel from Scotland to Manchester where the rates are high, perfectly acceptable and unenforceable. That balloon Burnham had similar on his own website, just another windbag trying to get his mush on TV.
I am certain that is an exaggeration, not least as the summer holidays have not started yet but her open hostility to England and the English is tedious and is very much we do not want you here
She, and the SNP, are doing untold harm to Scotland's image both for tourism and also business investment with her incessant and extreme anti English obsession
It is very sad to see it, but fortunately there are many Scots who are just embarrassed and ashamed by her as my family can attest to
This article is a few weeks old, but apparently Scotland is getting far fewer English visitors than usual:
"Those in Scotland’s hospitality industry take a rather different view — they are crying out for visitors. For all the talk of a staycation boom this summer, the Scottish Tourism Alliance says there is ‘an extremely slow start to accommodation bookings’ as of May. One survey showed around 62 per cent of rural hotels were half-empty this month. Edinburgh’s hotels had occupancy of just 19 per cent."
"David Shayer, who owns Aye Stay B&B in Inverness, put it to his local paper: ‘We feel caught up in a political climate which is affecting business.’ Bookings, he says, are down 40 per cent. ‘The sentiment is real that the English don’t feel welcome and are staying away and spending their money south of the border.’ "
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
19 July is supposed to be a 'terminus date', remember? So the law that makes seven-people dinner parties illegal needs to go.
Will Vallance or Whitty or some other SAGE members be telling us whether it was on their advice that Boris Johnson said the rise in cases in Cornwall was unrelated to the G7 conference?
The prime minister's press spokesman:
"Obviously we don’t accept this claim. Attendees going to the G7 were tested before arriving and throughout the summit, and we’re not aware of any cases of transmission to local residents.
We always said that, following the move to step 3, that we will see cases rising across the country. That is what we’re seeing playing out."
That's dodging the issue and crap logic. Let's hear what advice Johnson has sought and received.
It might be the G7. But thousands and thousands of people have been visiting Cornwall over the past few weeks. The chances of the rise in positives in Cornwall is down to the G7 and the G7 alone seems pretty unlikely.
It was clearly circulating at the G7. My wife attended and was told to self-isolate afterwards by the NHS App (although she didn't test positive).
According the papers this morning, the government is fearful of an influenza epidemic this winter because people's immune systems have been shafted by living in sealed, sanitised conditions for so long. The answer is apparently to put us all back into sealed, sanitised conditions.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Don't care, as long as I get a piping mug of hot broth, then we nip over the road to that leafy boozer with the dolphinarium
It clear from Boris mumblings today there is absolutely no chance of anything earlier than that the month delay.
Yep, and given the basis for the last extension is already falsified and he claimed there was a 2 week review, we can all now take a more reasoned view on the chance of the 19th of July surviving contact with SAGE.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
G, Scotland is full to bursting with English tourists at present. She specifically said travel from Scotland to Manchester where the rates are high, perfectly acceptable and unenforceable. That balloon Burnham had similar on his own website, just another windbag trying to get his mush on TV.
I am certain that is an exaggeration, not least as the summer holidays have not started yet but her open hostility to England and the English is tedious and is very much we do not want you here
She, and the SNP, are doing untold harm to Scotland's image both for tourism and also business investment with her incessant and extreme anti English obsession
It is very sad to see it, but fortunately there are many Scots who are just embarrassed and ashamed by her as my family can attest to
This article is a few weeks old, but apparently Scotland is getting far fewer English visitors than usual:
"Those in Scotland’s hospitality industry take a rather different view — they are crying out for visitors. For all the talk of a staycation boom this summer, the Scottish Tourism Alliance says there is ‘an extremely slow start to accommodation bookings’ as of May. One survey showed around 62 per cent of rural hotels were half-empty this month. Edinburgh’s hotels had occupancy of just 19 per cent."
"David Shayer, who owns Aye Stay B&B in Inverness, put it to his local paper: ‘We feel caught up in a political climate which is affecting business.’ Bookings, he says, are down 40 per cent. ‘The sentiment is real that the English don’t feel welcome and are staying away and spending their money south of the border.’ "
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
No, I'm not having that. Two of my daughters are currently at home off school - not because they have covid, but because a classmate has. They're now not supposed to leave the house except to get tested. The oldest is now going to miss her class's end-of-primary school residential. We are SO far from not locked down. We've *sigh* done what we're supposed to and taken them to be tested, but if either of them come back positive we'll then have to stay in for ten days. Even my double-jabbed wife. I supported vaccination, but not because it's jolly to get jabbed in the arm; I supported it because if we vaccinate the vulnerable we can get rid of all this shit. We've vaccinated the vulnerable. Why is this shit still here? And this shit also involves having to wearing mask in shops, invite more than one family to our house, leaving our details wherever we go, being hectored and patronised at my own expense - all seen by some as costless but actually imposing a very great cost indeed. The impositions we are under would have seemed absolutely unconscionable at any point before January 2020. Many of us think they still are.
I know there are restrictions still in place and they impact some people far more than me. It's a fair point. It's just that the phrase "we are locked down" rings false to me. For me being "locked down" equates to the Stay Home control order and most things shut. Like it once was. It's only a language thing but language is important. It's how all non physical battles are fought - with language.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
I think you have this backwards.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.
And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
Can't believe you're having this party without me, mate. Especially since you're inviting one of the sexiest stars of our age. As well as Scarlet Johhansson.
No, no, no. You can come. You have to come. It was Topping trying to micro-manage and control everything as per usual. Sorted now.
I told you to have a dinner party and you're now having a dinner party so job done.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
19 July is supposed to be a 'terminus date', remember? So the law that makes seven-people dinner parties illegal needs to go.
You know it makes sense.
All you need to do is persuade the virus to stop being so unreasonable.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
19 July is supposed to be a 'terminus date', remember? So the law that makes seven-people dinner parties illegal needs to go.
You know it makes sense.
All you need to do is persuade the virus to stop being so unreasonable.
In what sense? The virus is with us forever. We have effective vaccinations. At some stage the rules need to go. I would have lifted them today. When do you suggest if not 19 July?
It clear from Boris mumblings today there is absolutely no chance of anything earlier than that the month delay.
Yep, and given the basis for the last extension is already falsified and he claimed there was a 2 week review, we can all now take a more reasoned view on the chance of the 19th of July surviving contact with SAGE.
Who the feck knows.
We are certainly being softened up for an autumn of restrictions while we wait for boosters and deal with flu.
I actually think that the opponents of lockdown have done a lot to extend restrictions further, because they've been so successful at making every opponent of restrictions look like heartless idiots who would gladly put us all at risk of death in exchange for not being inconvenienced. They've discredited every reasonable argument with all of their nonsense.
It was the government and the proponents of lockdown who framed the debate that way and not its opponents.
YOu were offered safety in exchange for loss of liberty.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
I think you have this backwards.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.
And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.
There's surely a very large intersect between those at risk of the flu and those at risk of Covid, and Covid has taken more of them out than the flu normally would.
There's surely fewer people at risk from flu next winter, not more, as a result?
The difference between 2014 and 2021 is that in 2014 the people not killed by the flu were still alive and vulnerable, in 2021 they have already died of something else and can't die again.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
19 July is supposed to be a 'terminus date', remember? So the law that makes seven-people dinner parties illegal needs to go.
It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
G, Scotland is full to bursting with English tourists at present. She specifically said travel from Scotland to Manchester where the rates are high, perfectly acceptable and unenforceable. That balloon Burnham had similar on his own website, just another windbag trying to get his mush on TV.
I am certain that is an exaggeration, not least as the summer holidays have not started yet but her open hostility to England and the English is tedious and is very much we do not want you here
She, and the SNP, are doing untold harm to Scotland's image both for tourism and also business investment with her incessant and extreme anti English obsession
It is very sad to see it, but fortunately there are many Scots who are just embarrassed and ashamed by her as my family can attest to
This article is a few weeks old, but apparently Scotland is getting far fewer English visitors than usual:
"Those in Scotland’s hospitality industry take a rather different view — they are crying out for visitors. For all the talk of a staycation boom this summer, the Scottish Tourism Alliance says there is ‘an extremely slow start to accommodation bookings’ as of May. One survey showed around 62 per cent of rural hotels were half-empty this month. Edinburgh’s hotels had occupancy of just 19 per cent."
"David Shayer, who owns Aye Stay B&B in Inverness, put it to his local paper: ‘We feel caught up in a political climate which is affecting business.’ Bookings, he says, are down 40 per cent. ‘The sentiment is real that the English don’t feel welcome and are staying away and spending their money south of the border.’ "
Anecdotally, we are considering a visit but are very unsure because firstly of the welcome we would receive and secondly because of the risk that Sturgeon changes the rules re borders.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
I think Sunak and others are so alarmed at the public's complacency, they may be deliberately spreading counter scare stuff on some of the bills that are going to come in.
Many think we can live like this forever. Ishmael is clearly one.
It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
19 July is supposed to be a 'terminus date', remember? So the law that makes seven-people dinner parties illegal needs to go.
You know it makes sense.
The terminus was a Johnson promise.
He seems resolute at the moment but will he "terminus" language trump the inevitable poll on 18 July which will show popularity for a further delay?
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
I think you have this backwards.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.
And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.
There's surely a very large intersect between those at risk of the flu and those at risk of Covid, and Covid has taken more of them out than the flu normally would.
There's surely fewer people at risk from flu next winter, not more, as a result?
The difference between 2014 and 2021 is that in 2014 the people not killed by the flu were still alive and vulnerable, in 2021 they have already died of something else and can't die again.
I think you're equating COVID and flu. COVID is very much taking out a lot of people who would have lived more than 1-2 years. Now I know that you think we have herd immunity with the vaccines, but we very much did not have it after the Dec-Feb wave. I'm personally sceptical about the average loss of life due to COVID being 10 years per death, but it's definitely well over two years.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
There is a group of PBers who favour prolonged restrictions, because they don't mind them and they make them feel safer. I suspect that their effects on the young and the outgoing is a minor consideration: the key criteria is the impact on their own wellbeing.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
How is having the PM say things are “looking good” for unlocking in July of any reassurance - or even meaning - when he kept saying the same in the runup to June?
Given there's sufficient evidence to use the 2 week break clause, the fact he dismisses that out of hand should make everyone who wants restrictions to end extremely nervous about July 19th. Basically no chance of a genuine end of restrictions as far as I can see, unfortunately. Why talk about double jabbed people testing rather than isolating if you're removing restrictions anyway.
There is a difference between no restrictions and still using contact tracing and tests though. I am nervous about the 19th and it is fair to point out that up to about a week ahead of the decision, the rhetoric was ‘nothing in the data to prevent step 4’, until there was. We need to accept that a return to 2019 just isn’t coming, at least not quickly. Some things will be part of life. I hope it doesn’t include masks and social distancing, aside perhaps from clinical settings where appropriate.
Its funny.
When I first posted that, once conceded, liberties were never coming back, all I got was tide of scorn. An absolute tide.
And nothing has ever happened which remotely vindicates you. You were against the first lockdown, you were against the second lockdown, you are so far into stopped clock country that no amount of I told you so-ing can now rescue you from the hotels of derisive laughter which greet your every post.
Hotels of derisive laughter is good, but was meant to be howls and I can't edit on a phone.
Sitting on Mallaig pier in the sunshine eating a Lorne sausage bap with brown sauce. These restrictions are hell on earth.
I’ve spent many happy days canvassing in Mallaig. Back then it was hard going (still a lot of SLDs about, and surprisingly large numbers of SLab); now it is solid Kate Forbes territory.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
I think you have this backwards.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.
And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.
I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.
Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?
(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
No, I'm not having that. Two of my daughters are currently at home off school - not because they have covid, but because a classmate has. They're now not supposed to leave the house except to get tested. The oldest is now going to miss her class's end-of-primary school residential. We are SO far from not locked down. We've *sigh* done what we're supposed to and taken them to be tested, but if either of them come back positive we'll then have to stay in for ten days. Even my double-jabbed wife. I supported vaccination, but not because it's jolly to get jabbed in the arm; I supported it because if we vaccinate the vulnerable we can get rid of all this shit. We've vaccinated the vulnerable. Why is this shit still here? And this shit also involves having to wearing mask in shops, invite more than one family to our house, leaving our details wherever we go, being hectored and patronised at my own expense - all seen by some as costless but actually imposing a very great cost indeed. The impositions we are under would have seemed absolutely unconscionable at any point before January 2020. Many of us think they still are.
I know there are restrictions still in place and they impact some people far more than me. It's a fair point. It's just that the phrase "we are locked down" rings false to me. For me being "locked down" equates to the Stay Home control order and most things shut. Like it once was. It's only a language thing but language is important. It's how all non physical battles are fought - with language.
But the only reason you can describe this as not locked down is that last March-June was worse. I don't think that's a good enough reason. With the exception of that period, this is the biggest restriction on our civil liberties ever. We are less free than we were during WW2. Richer, more comfortable, at less risk of bombs dropping on us and not having to send our youth of to war, granted - but that's all the more reason why are lack of freedom is absurd.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
Wait till you hear what 6 year olds in 1945 had gone through.
Recorded deaths in hospitals in England over the weekend with a positive Covid test within 28 days.
18/6/21 - 9 19/6/21 - 2 20/6/21 - 0
The increase in cases is not leading to an increase in deaths at all.
Nonsense. The weekly death rate is 80% higher than its minimum a month ago. Following fairly closely the 115% increase in the weekly positive test rate, over the month following its minimum a fortnight earlier.
Believe it or not, the laws of statistics still apply, regardless of wishful thinking.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
I think you have this backwards.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.
And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.
There's surely a very large intersect between those at risk of the flu and those at risk of Covid, and Covid has taken more of them out than the flu normally would.
There's surely fewer people at risk from flu next winter, not more, as a result?
The difference between 2014 and 2021 is that in 2014 the people not killed by the flu were still alive and vulnerable, in 2021 they have already died of something else and can't die again.
I think you're equating COVID and flu. COVID is very much taking out a lot of people who would have lived more than 1-2 years. Now I know that you think we have herd immunity with the vaccines, but we very much did not have it after the Dec-Feb wave. I'm personally sceptical about the average loss of life due to COVID being 10 years per death, but it's definitely well over two years.
Flu only picks off those who are close death.
I think you misunderstand me, what I'm saying is that Covid has disproportionately picked off those close to death too.
Covid has disproportionately hit those who were vulnerable to the flu: the elderly, the infirm, those in care homes, those in hospitals etc, etc are vulnerable to both the flu and to covid.
The overwhelming majority of those who aren't close to death survive Covid too - but its even more of a bugger than the flu is to those who are close to it and its hit them hardest. Those who've already died of Covid last winter, can't die of the flu next winter.
It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.
You're absolutely right. I'm going to phone her and tell her she can't come.
I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.
Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?
(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)
It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of s/e people are seeing their earnings get really hammered due to the virus officially, while a lot of cash income is being generated unofficially.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
There is a group of PBers who favour prolonged restrictions, because they don't mind them and they make them feel safer. I suspect that their effects on the young and the outgoing is a minor consideration: the key criteria is the impact on their own wellbeing.
That is why, I think, Sunak and others are out there showing how this will inevitably come to their doors one day. There is no escaping the implications
We see stories being planted about new taxes on pension pots and the end of the triple lock.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
Wait till you hear what 6 year olds in 1945 had gone through.
You remind me of those Leavers saying well at least it wasn't as bad as the English Civil War/WWII/rationing to justify Brexit.
Recorded deaths in hospitals in England over the weekend with a positive Covid test within 28 days.
18/6/21 - 9 19/6/21 - 2 20/6/21 - 0
The increase in cases is not leading to an increase in deaths at all.
Nonsense. The weekly death rate is 80% higher than its minimum a month ago. Following fairly closely the 115% increase in the weekly positive test rate, over the month following its minimum a fortnight earlier.
Believe it or not, the laws of statistics still apply, regardless of wishful thinking.
I fear this sensible move will just mean an upswing of support for PP and Vox (especially in a wee corner of Epping).
No evidence he will allow the majority Catalan nationalist government a legal independence referendum though.
In any case I merely support the line both the main Spanish parties have taken in government of refusing the Nationalist government a legal independence referendum, at least for a generation since the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I have not yet gone as far as the PP government did when they arrested the Catalan nationalist leaders for sedition for holding an illegal independence referendum and declaring UDI and suggested Boris and the UK government should arrest Sturgeon and the SNP leadership
I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.
Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?
(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)
It wouldn't surprise me if a lot of s/e people are seeing their earnings get really hammered due to the virus officially, while a lot of cash income is being generated unofficially.
No doubt people like this, and those who are enjoying not having to go into work either because of furlough or no need for commute/WFH, are being included in the pollsters "do you support restrictions" polling thus skewing the result. These people should be disregarded.
I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.
Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?
(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)
Our son who is to be married in six weeks is not having a stag do as the chance of anyone there catching covid, no matter how small, is just not worth the risk to the wedding
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
I went to St Kilda once, and had a fabulous time. It's all mightily impressive, a world class landscape, perhaps the most mind-boggling things are the sea stacks - Stac an Armin, Stac Lee - they rise like giant black molars straight from the waves, half a kilometre into the air. The ancient Kildans used to climb them barefoot and camp on the tops for weeks, harvesting the fulmars
They used the carcases of the birds as slippers, and the beaks as buttons
But my God the churning sea. I got a rare sunny day - heavenly - but when the time came for our departure the ocean was beginning to boil and I was very glad I decided not to camp (my original intention)
Everyone should see it, if they ever get the chance. Enjoy
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
Average figures for five years. Not sure if it includes last year? However it is likely that some who have died in the last year have only gone early by a few months, hence we are levelling out. The longer term effects of undiagnosed illness will keep coming though.
ONS are comparing against the pre-COVID years, so that's not a problem.
Since the week ending 22 May 2020, non-COVID deaths are 47,324 below the 5-year average (England and Wales only).
Now, there may be a few things contributing to this. Perhaps the 138,465 COVID deaths in the dataset are overstating COVID's impact. Alternatively, lockdown helped reduce the spread of influenza and other bugs that bump off old people. And there will be some people who died of COVID who would have died anyway at some point in the not too distant future.
What I would say about the suppression of influenza is that in 2013-14 (that was the winter with the storms and flooding (Somerset Levels etc.), but quite mild), the number of deaths was lower. But the following winter made up for it. Look at the number of deaths recorded in the 16 weeks to the end of March 2014 with the 16 weeks to the end of March 2015:
2013-14: 162,398 2014-15: 190,539
That's an extra 28,000 deaths. So, I think it's fair to say that the government and NHS needs to brace itself this winter.
I think you have this backwards.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
For sure some of the c.130,000 who have died from COVID would have died in the 2021-22 winter, but I'm talking about the ones who have benefited from lockdown stopping the spread of flu etc.
And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.
There's surely a very large intersect between those at risk of the flu and those at risk of Covid, and Covid has taken more of them out than the flu normally would.
There's surely fewer people at risk from flu next winter, not more, as a result?
The difference between 2014 and 2021 is that in 2014 the people not killed by the flu were still alive and vulnerable, in 2021 they have already died of something else and can't die again.
I think you're equating COVID and flu. COVID is very much taking out a lot of people who would have lived more than 1-2 years. Now I know that you think we have herd immunity with the vaccines, but we very much did not have it after the Dec-Feb wave. I'm personally sceptical about the average loss of life due to COVID being 10 years per death, but it's definitely well over two years.
Flu only picks off those who are close death.
I think you misunderstand me, what I'm saying is that Covid has disproportionately picked off those close to death too.
Covid has disproportionately hit those who were vulnerable to the flu: the elderly, the infirm, those in care homes, those in hospitals etc, etc are vulnerable to both the flu and to covid.
The overwhelming majority of those who aren't close to death survive Covid too - but its even more of a bugger than the flu is to those who are close to it and its hit them hardest. Those who've already died of Covid last winter, can't die of the flu next winter.
I understand what you're saying, what I'm saying is that the "benefit" of those 130,000 COVID deaths will be spread out over much more than one or two winters. As I said, I'm sceptical about the average loss of life being 10 years, but I suspect the effect will be spread over many years.
What I'm talking about is the 47,000 fewer non-COVID deaths. Sure, some will have died from COVID instead, but most won't. The reality is that the change to our lives due to COVID has extended many lives and when we go back to normal the grim reaper will be playing catch-up.
Quite what effect this will have on the NHS, I don't know. Maybe these people will just snuff it and it won't be too problematic for the NHS.
It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.
You're absolutely right. I'm going to phone her and tell her she can't come.
You'd be better off binning off a couple of the blokes, and replacing them with Salma Hayek or Rose Byrne.
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
Wait till you hear what 6 year olds in 1945 had gone through.
My wife fits exactly that description and spent was sent to Orkney from Wick for a part of that period
I see the brave lads are back to one of their favourite thumb-on-the-scales exercises
Funny how they keep telling us we’re not allowed a referendum, while simultaneously micro-managing the details.
I wouldn't assume that Scots living in rUK are massively pro-Union anyway. I'm not, and my sense from talking to others is that for a lot of people the calculations changed after 2016. Speaking personally, I see mostly upside for me from Scottish independence. I get a Scottish/EU passport. I get to stick it to the Tories. And I'm not personally liable for the fiscal costs of an independent Scotland, so if it doesn't work out well I'm not on the hook. This all sounds pretty selfish and irresponsible, of course - which is why I wouldn't give the vote on this to Scots in rUK. But if they do give me the vote, I'd definitely use it! I wonder what the polling says on this, I don't remember seeing any.
Of course, if they gave the English a vote Scotland would be independent straight away.
So why are you so scared of a referendum then.
I don’t think people in England are scared, only the SNP and UK government.
Plus, Sturgeons too busy picking a fight with Manchester
We Tories won a majority in 2019 on a manifesto commitment of respecting the result of the once in a generation 2014 referendum.
As long as we Tories remain in power with a majority at Westminster we will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP and Scottish Nationalists can do about it
Which traitors in the cabinet do you think are pushing for a referendum and extending the vote to England based Scots?
Some weak, wet blanket Ministers, however today's report has no evidence whatsoever the PM is considering allowing a vote and on that basis we should remain of the view he will stick to his position of refusing indyref2.
Refusing a legal indyref2 is the most important task of this government for the rest of its term in power
PB is gonna be a hoot the day de Pfeffel caves.
He won't, Boris does not want to go down in history as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland rather than the architect of Brexit he currently is.
Given Sturgeon has ruled out UDI, Boris can refuse indyref2 forever and Sturgeon will not do anything about it
It’s not Sturgeon that will be weighing on the mind of Unionist strategists. It is Scottish public opinion.
But you keep digging pal.
It isn't for Boris, he knows he won a majority of 80 in 2019 with just 6 Scottish Tory MPs, even if he had 0 MPs in Scotland he could stay UK PM so why would he care about Scottish public opinion? Better for Boris to ignore the SNP forever than go down as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland.
Plus only 37 per cent of Scots believe there should be a referendum before the end of 2023 anyway
I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.
Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?
(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)
Our son who is to be married in six weeks is not having a stag do as the chance of anyone there catching covid, no matter how small, is just not worth the risk to the wedding
What a shame. I guess is would only be a major issue if the groom himself caught it!
1,008,472 appointments were booked in just two days, as the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme opened up to all adults — that's over 21,000 every hour, or six every second! 💉
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
That's fantastic.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
WOW, compliance must lead to liberty then.....!!!
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
We aren't "locked down". I'm popping out in a minute. Don't need to. Don't even want to. I'm doing it just cos I can. Exercising my right as a freeborn Englishman to leave the house and make my presence felt.
Absolutely. And yet if you were to invite me, @contrarian, @HYUFD, @Dura_Ace, @Leon, @Philip_Thompson and Scarlett Johansson round for a kitchen supper this weekend at yours you would be breaking the law.
Would make for one hell of a dinner party though. I certainly wouldn't mind sitting next to Black Widow.
Oi! I get to do the seating plan.
Er, it's at mine. What sort of bossyboots thinks they should be in charge of things when they're at somebody else's pad?
Can't believe you're having this party without me, mate. Especially since you're inviting one of the sexiest stars of our age. As well as Scarlet Johhansson.
No, no, no. You can come. You have to come. It was Topping trying to micro-manage and control everything as per usual. Sorted now.
I told you to have a dinner party and you're now having a dinner party so job done.
Just look out for plod.
Your point is well enough made. There really shouldn't be a law against such dinner parties. Hopefully - and IMO almost certainly - there won't be after July 19th. But one should also recognize that the Plod threat in these circumstances is almost entirely theoretical. And that's not irrelevant to the discussion.
I attended a stag do at the weekend and a friend who I haven't seen for a long time who is a builder told me about his gang of s/e workers who are loving the "double bubble" income they have been enjoying under Sunak's self-employed scheme. They have been working throughout and have also been claiming £2,500 per month from the taxman. They have been bragging about over £20k in free bunce so far.
Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?
(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)
Our son who is to be married in six weeks is not having a stag do as the chance of anyone there catching covid, no matter how small, is just not worth the risk to the wedding
What a shame. I guess is would only be a major issue if the groom himself caught it!
Or the best man, or the immediate family party including the brides father
Can anyone explain why Excess Deaths have been negative for the last 14 weeks?
OK, we know Covid deaths have been very, very low.
But I thought it was widely accepted that many people with other medical problems haven't been to see their GP or gone to hospital as much as usual over the last 15 months.
Surely the above should have led to lots of illness not being diagnosed and also known illnesses progressing more rapidly? Which should now be feeding through into Excess Deaths?
The obvious answer is that COVID deaths in 2020 for a large number of people were advanced by less than a year meaning the pool of people in death's waiting room is much smaller this year.
I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, but it would have to spread through much of the population to have got to those who were going to die anyway. There might be a bias in that it's gone through some care homes and hospitals, but I suspect the -47,000 non-COVID excess deaths is driven by some people being dead from COVID and also a reduction in other viruses spreading through the population.
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
I can't help advocating one final heave this winter and into next spring to get us over the line - masks, rule of six, we all know the drill by now
You know it makes sense.
Are you being serious? Next spring? Two years of this. Do you have any idea what effect the constant hum of restrictions might have on children? A six-yr old will have spent 25% of their lives under some kind of restrictions. Wow.
Wait till you hear what 6 year olds in 1945 had gone through.
This is not World War fucking Two. It's a nasty new virus. Enough of this masking and distancing shit. We are wrecking lives, minds and souls to no purpose
Perversely, the C&A result may turn out to be a blessing for the CP if they heed the warning and quickly reverse the development relaxation plans they have been advocating.
It would impolite in the extreme to invite Scarlett Johansson to a dinner party without any female company. It would place her in a very awkward position when she arrives and discovers she is the only woman in attendance.
You're absolutely right. I'm going to phone her and tell her she can't come.
You'd be better off binning off a couple of the blokes, and replacing them with Salma Hayek or Rose Byrne.
I see the brave lads are back to one of their favourite thumb-on-the-scales exercises
Funny how they keep telling us we’re not allowed a referendum, while simultaneously micro-managing the details.
I wouldn't assume that Scots living in rUK are massively pro-Union anyway. I'm not, and my sense from talking to others is that for a lot of people the calculations changed after 2016. Speaking personally, I see mostly upside for me from Scottish independence. I get a Scottish/EU passport. I get to stick it to the Tories. And I'm not personally liable for the fiscal costs of an independent Scotland, so if it doesn't work out well I'm not on the hook. This all sounds pretty selfish and irresponsible, of course - which is why I wouldn't give the vote on this to Scots in rUK. But if they do give me the vote, I'd definitely use it! I wonder what the polling says on this, I don't remember seeing any.
Of course, if they gave the English a vote Scotland would be independent straight away.
So why are you so scared of a referendum then.
I don’t think people in England are scared, only the SNP and UK government.
Plus, Sturgeons too busy picking a fight with Manchester
We Tories won a majority in 2019 on a manifesto commitment of respecting the result of the once in a generation 2014 referendum.
As long as we Tories remain in power with a majority at Westminster we will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the SNP and Scottish Nationalists can do about it
Which traitors in the cabinet do you think are pushing for a referendum and extending the vote to England based Scots?
Some weak, wet blanket Ministers, however today's report has no evidence whatsoever the PM is considering allowing a vote and on that basis we should remain of the view he will stick to his position of refusing indyref2.
Refusing a legal indyref2 is the most important task of this government for the rest of its term in power
PB is gonna be a hoot the day de Pfeffel caves.
He won't, Boris does not want to go down in history as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland rather than the architect of Brexit he currently is.
Given Sturgeon has ruled out UDI, Boris can refuse indyref2 forever and Sturgeon will not do anything about it
It’s not Sturgeon that will be weighing on the mind of Unionist strategists. It is Scottish public opinion.
But you keep digging pal.
It isn't for Boris, he knows he won a majority of 80 in 2019 with just 6 Scottish Tory MPs, even if he had 0 MPs in Scotland he could stay UK PM so why would he care about Scottish public opinion? Better for Boris to ignore the SNP forever than go down as the 21st century Lord North who lost Scotland.
Plus only 37 per cent of Scots believe there should be a referendum before the end of 2023 anyway
Why should a UK PM care about Scottish public opinion?
The answer is obvious, but as I said, you keep digging pal.
No why should they if they have a UK majority without needing a majority of Scottish MPs as Boris does? He can and will ignore Scottish Nationalists forever while he has a Tory majority and remains PM.
Starmer might need to listen to Scottish Nationalists and allow an indyref2 if he becomes PM and needs their support (though he would also give devomax and an independence vote would be less likely under him), Boris can and will refuse a legal indyref2 forever while he is No 10
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We would be stuck like this for months and months and years.
Plus only 37 per cent of Scots believe there should be a referendum before the end of 2023 anyway
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/indyref2-poll-finds-just-12-per-cent-of-scots-want-focus-on-new-vote-3229909
I think one of the biggest protectors against serious consequences of getting flu is previously acquired levels of immunity (through infection or vaccination). As is increasingly likely to be the case with Covid.
You’ll be quite likely to catch it - but it won’t be that serious. Which is something which the focus on case numbers and vaccinations is doing its best to overlook.
Two of my daughters are currently at home off school - not because they have covid, but because a classmate has. They're now not supposed to leave the house except to get tested. The oldest is now going to miss her class's end-of-primary school residential.
We are SO far from not locked down.
We've *sigh* done what we're supposed to and taken them to be tested, but if either of them come back positive we'll then have to stay in for ten days. Even my double-jabbed wife.
I supported vaccination, but not because it's jolly to get jabbed in the arm; I supported it because if we vaccinate the vulnerable we can get rid of all this shit. We've vaccinated the vulnerable. Why is this shit still here?
And this shit also involves having to wearing mask in shops, invite more than one family to our house, leaving our details wherever we go, being hectored and patronised at my own expense - all seen by some as costless but actually imposing a very great cost indeed.
The impositions we are under would have seemed absolutely unconscionable at any point before January 2020. Many of us think they still are.
Both, according to sworn testimony from many, many people, have a capacity measured in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.
The joke is on the stupid boobies who swallowed everything the government said, went into house arrest, turned themselves into pin cushions, are still not free, and face an enormous burgling of their remaining wealth in the autumn when the bill comes around.
If there are 'hotels' of derisive laughter, its at them.
...who is really Eric Morris?
The point was about people’s behaviour. Most people will not bat an eyelid if you have seven to dinner. Or if you touch 80 on the M1. I hate the restrictions but have seen the basis up till now, but no longer. But we are not in lockdown in th3 sense of March 2019, or jan 2020.
England 142,223 1st doses / 78,594 2nd doses
Scotland 16,848 / 15,333
Wales 1,619 / 8,460
NI 3,060 / 6,661
The prime minister's press spokesman:
"Obviously we don’t accept this claim. Attendees going to the G7 were tested before arriving and throughout the summit, and we’re not aware of any cases of transmission to local residents.
We always said that, following the move to step 3, that we will see cases rising across the country. That is what we’re seeing playing out."
That's dodging the issue and crap logic. Let's hear what advice Johnson has sought and received.
Hint: no means I would have been fine with another 100,000 deaths, and yes means My judgment on whether any given lockdown is justified or not is entirely worthless.
Snookered.
18/6/21 - 9
19/6/21 - 2
20/6/21 - 0
The increase in cases is not leading to an increase in deaths at all.
But thousands and thousands of people have been visiting Cornwall over the past few weeks. The chances of the rise in positives in Cornwall is down to the G7 and the G7 alone seems pretty unlikely.
Why else?
If they'd not been listened to perhaps we could have had a debate about appropriate use of state power that didn't dismiss the real threat that Covid posed.
Fan of Under The Skin, are you?
Winter 2021-22 will be tough for the NHS, I think.
She, and the SNP, are doing untold harm to Scotland's image both for tourism and also business investment with her incessant and extreme anti English obsession
It is very sad to see it, but fortunately there are many Scots who are just embarrassed and ashamed by her as my family can attest to
That's not me modelling it btw
You know it makes sense.
There were extra deaths in 14/15 because they hadn't died in 13/14.
With respect, they're already dead this time around. The pressure should be lower in 21/22 than normal, not higher than normal, because the cold frost of 20/21 has already removed the long hanging fruit.
"Those in Scotland’s hospitality industry take a rather different view — they are crying out for visitors. For all the talk of a staycation boom this summer, the Scottish Tourism Alliance says there is ‘an extremely slow start to accommodation bookings’ as of May. One survey showed around 62 per cent of rural hotels were half-empty this month. Edinburgh’s hotels had occupancy of just 19 per cent."
"David Shayer, who owns Aye Stay B&B in Inverness, put it to his local paper: ‘We feel caught up in a political climate which is affecting business.’ Bookings, he says, are down 40 per cent. ‘The sentiment is real that the English don’t feel welcome and are staying away and spending their money south of the border.’ "
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/scotland-is-open-and-desperate-for-english-tourists
You know it makes sense.
Isn't that false advertising? Shouldn't they be called the @over5million ?
And then the NHS has to deal with COVID going through the antivaxxers as well.
Just look out for plod.
We are certainly being softened up for an autumn of restrictions while we wait for boosters and deal with flu.
YOu were offered safety in exchange for loss of liberty.
That was a false bargain.
Liberty is safety. It is the only safety.
There's surely fewer people at risk from flu next winter, not more, as a result?
The difference between 2014 and 2021 is that in 2014 the people not killed by the flu were still alive and vulnerable, in 2021 they have already died of something else and can't die again.
Anecdotally, we are considering a visit but are very unsure because firstly of the welcome we would receive and secondly because of the risk that Sturgeon changes the rules re borders.
Many think we can live like this forever. Ishmael is clearly one.
Flu only picks off those who are close death.
00 04 9
05 09 6
10 14 13
15 19 31
20 24 59
25 29 119
30 34 213
35 39 357
40 44 574
45 49 1,136
50 54 2,017
55 59 3,300
60 64 3,883
65 69 8,109
70 74 11,071
75 79 15,339
80 84 20,435
85 89 22,272
90+ 23,591
Why would these people want financial assistance packages to end?
(The 5th s/e grant is at least a bit more sensible than those previous iterations - but only a bit. You have to declare that your s/e earning will be at least 30% down from normal due to the virus.)
With the exception of that period, this is the biggest restriction on our civil liberties ever. We are less free than we were during WW2. Richer, more comfortable, at less risk of bombs dropping on us and not having to send our youth of to war, granted - but that's all the more reason why are lack of freedom is absurd.
Believe it or not, the laws of statistics still apply, regardless of wishful thinking.
Covid has disproportionately hit those who were vulnerable to the flu: the elderly, the infirm, those in care homes, those in hospitals etc, etc are vulnerable to both the flu and to covid.
The overwhelming majority of those who aren't close to death survive Covid too - but its even more of a bugger than the flu is to those who are close to it and its hit them hardest. Those who've already died of Covid last winter, can't die of the flu next winter.
We see stories being planted about new taxes on pension pots and the end of the triple lock.
https://i.imgur.com/vtCUcTe.png
In any case I merely support the line both the main Spanish parties have taken in government of refusing the Nationalist government a legal independence referendum, at least for a generation since the 2014 Scottish referendum.
I have not yet gone as far as the PP government did when they arrested the Catalan nationalist leaders for sedition for holding an illegal independence referendum and declaring UDI and suggested Boris and the UK government should arrest Sturgeon and the SNP leadership
They used the carcases of the birds as slippers, and the beaks as buttons
But my God the churning sea. I got a rare sunny day - heavenly - but when the time came for our departure the ocean was beginning to boil and I was very glad I decided not to camp (my original intention)
Everyone should see it, if they ever get the chance. Enjoy
What I'm talking about is the 47,000 fewer non-COVID deaths. Sure, some will have died from COVID instead, but most won't. The reality is that the change to our lives due to COVID has extended many lives and when we go back to normal the grim reaper will be playing catch-up.
Quite what effect this will have on the NHS, I don't know. Maybe these people will just snuff it and it won't be too problematic for the NHS.
The answer is obvious, but as I said, you keep digging pal.
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1406947513857462276?s=20
Exclusive: number of UK productions seen as ‘disproportionate’ and threat to Europe’s cultural diversity
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/21/eu-prepares-cut-amount-british-tv-film-shown-brexit
Starmer might need to listen to Scottish Nationalists and allow an indyref2 if he becomes PM and needs their support (though he would also give devomax and an independence vote would be less likely under him), Boris can and will refuse a legal indyref2 forever while he is No 10