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Chesham Tory Peter Fleet was on a losing run right from his selection as candidate – politicalbettin
Chesham Tory Peter Fleet was on a losing run right from his selection as candidate – politicalbetting.com
In the aftermath of the Chesham by-election Peter Fleet has issued a series of Tweets expressing his bitterness about the outcome and Lib Dem tactics. Fair enough – I tried to run for parliament once and I know how failure affected me.
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Peter Fleet didn't know the area - which meant he followed the Tory Government policy on HS2 rather than the necessary logic of keeping quiet about it.
HS2? Oh we're against that (despite party policy being in favour)
House building? Oh we're against that (despite party policy supporting free movement)
Much easier to talk out of both sides of your mouth if you're only talking to one audience and they're not too familiar with your national issues.
Much harder to do that in national elections where the Lib Dems need to come up with national policies which just don't win people around.
Other than that, things looking up.
The LDs though will be encouraged to target other similar Remain seats in the Home Counties with lots of opposition to greenbelt development and similar demographics to Chesham and Amersham from Esher and Walton to Guildford, Wokingham and Wantage at the next general election. If they got anything like the swing in Chesham in 2024 then Dominic Raab, John Redwood and Jeremy Hunt for example would all see their seats go LD.
PS The mighty Matthew Goodwin has commented on Twitter about Mike Smithson's article on education and voting, pointing out that if only the highly educated could vote Jezza would be PM.
I have just listened to Sturgeon v Burnham row, and to be honest Sturgeon is mishandling this
If I was a business in Scotland I would be furious, as again she says to the English you are not welcome in Scotland, but at the same time does not isolate Dundee which is worse than Bolton for covid infections
Andy Burnham was restrained, but very coherent and I expect there will be many in Scotland extremely uncomfortable at the image Sturgeon is giving and she has made it a direct political attack by saying she wants a 'grown-up' conversation and not a platform for a Labour leadership campaign.
And on that Burnham shames Starmer and would be a breath of fresh air as Labour leader.
And on Boris, I am not at all content with him and join the growing band of conservative seeking a new leader asap
Its not just me and others, we've had many excellent questions asked here by the likes of @Cyclefree @Malmesbury @Anabobazina and many, many others that simply aren't asked by the likes of Burley.
If your worry is whether you're going to get a holiday next week, or your worry is whether you're going to lose your livelihood next week, then I don't think the latter is more comfortable than the former.
It's entirely consistent to demand an inexhaustible supply of cheap labour, whilst expecting all the extra people to live out of sight and out of mind in jam packed squalor in the urban cores.
Just because they're useful as cheap coffee baristas and plumbers, the upper middle classes don't want them and their smelly little children living in the same places. l mean, don't be silly!
And here we come to the risk of a common mistake: concluding that this is a fake news network that should be ignored, because the only way it achieves traction is via the friction of controversy, reaction and virality. But just because it appears not to be credible or competent doesn’t mean that it is not viable or that it won’t corrode our political culture further
As the days and months pass, the GB News audience will be slowly radicalised, helping to push Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit England even further to the right. It is incumbent on us to pay attention. Call it GB News Watch.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/21/gb-news-andrew-neil-grievance-politics-left
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
That would give a hung parliament with Labour still 31 short of a majority, so Boris may have lost but Corbyn would not necessarily have won even with graduates alone, he would still have needed LD and SNP support
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34&LAB=39&LIB=17&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=23&SCOTLAB=19.6&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.4&SCOTGreen=2.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=47.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
To rehash the old Polaris joke.....
"Put the migrants out to sea, where the real estate is free. And they're far away from me"
The LDs have underwhelmed in by-elections in recent years, leaving some to conclude that the LDs by-election winning magic was gone for good. However, in large part, this was due to the lost-deposit-athon of 2015. Following that, there were relatively few places where the LDs did start from second place.
But that shouldn't be taken to imply that the LDs can no longer win by elections where conditions are favourable. As we've just seen, they can, and will.
Having lost Southampton Itchen in 1997 and the Tatton selection in 1999 to George Osborne he must have thought being selected for normally true blue Chesham and Amersham would see him returned to Westminster at last. However he has managed to lose the ultra safe seat to the LDs in the by election. Perhaps best for him to now give up politics and take up gardening or another hobby instead
I suspect most people will be understanding of the issue and will just see Labour as being incredibly juvenile.
@EssexPR
·
2h
This morning
@JuliaHB1
asked me my thoughts on Vaccine Passports, I said it as it is..
I’ve done this my whole life, I know more than the know it all journos on Twitter that say pubs could do this.
We couldn’t, we won’t & neither should events,Theatres or Nightclubs #OpenForAll
Please provide some data that shows that what demographic is more concerned with a weekend away than keeping their job, or their struggling business afloat or the plethora of other issues being ignored by the media while they fritter on about holidays.
Alastair Stewart
@AlStewartOBE
·
1h
The
@guardian
wants a #GBNewsWatch to guard against all the nastiness on
@gbnews
.
I did GP appointments, the need for reform of education, a 12 year old illegal immigrant now setting up a restaurant & paying his taxes, and a horse charity.
Nasty stuff!
The tories now have nothing for the voters in these seats but ashes.
Higher taxes. Raids on pensions. Mass development. Infringements upon liberties. crumbling services. Bloated bureaucracy.
If the LDs gained 20 Tory seats in the South, including Raab's, then that would mean Labour only needs to gain 20-30 Tory seats or so on what it won in 2019 and Starmer would become PM most likely even if the Tories won most seats thanks to LD and SNP support. The DUP would now refuse to support the Tories either unless the Irish Sea border was removed.
That is why I still think Starmer has a far better chance of becoming PM than some suggest even if Labour has next to no chance of a majority
A question about why it's not permissible for churches to engage in congrational singing in England but it is in Wales would interest me for instance. I don't expect this to get asked every day, but given that Welsh guidance changed last week, it might have been a good question for this week?
Trying to portray it is the Nazi News Network fronted by basically a load of people off BBC, ITV and Sky just doesn't pass the smell test.
I think there's a tendency for people to impute the reasons they like the most to the Con loss of C&A to the LDs.
For example, of the following:
1. A strengthening Remain identity.
2. People seeing through Johnson.
3. A growing awareness of government pandemic incompetence.
4. Southern resentment over the perceived focus on the North.
5. Nimby opposition to HS2.
6. Nimby dislike of building more houses.
I'd say it's definitely 1/2/3 - but I sense that's wishful thinking and in reality it's more 4/5/6. In which case what we have here is a great thing happening (Cons losing a safe seat) for all the wrong reasons.
But it's ok. You can't always get what you want, and in this case - come the GE if the swing is repeated across the blue wall - we'll be getting what we need.
Yeah but are the societial benefits worth it, copyright Kay Burley....
The focus on the north is merely redressing the focus on the south for many many years.
But equally doesn't appear different to what you could encounter on numerous other platforms.
Half a million were done in the past 48 hours. It would be great if that pace could be kept up but I suspect we'll quickly slow down as those eager to be done first will be done and now there's nobody left to open it up to.
Still, we're already at 81.6% of adults vaccinated. Biden and many other leaders could only dream of achieving such figures.
Turnout 19 dropped by the same amount as the Tory vote
Them's the facts, and I'd say the most plausible reason for the LD win was Tory voters couldnt be arsed to vote, maybe as they are fed up with "lockdown", and if their party loses the seat they still have a massive majority
Remainers/Boris haters had a chance to put a pie in his face, and were motivated by that
Oh wait. No it doesn't. We are still locked down. They are free.
More to come in the Autumn if you don't take your booster like a good boy!!!
She seems surprised, and has fallen back on the "How dare he play politics!?" line.
In England there are 2 million 40 somethings without a first dose, 3.7 million 30 somethings, 2.5 million aged 25-29 and almost 5 million between 16-24 (16/17 not yet eligible of course).
In the last month, the number of 50 somethings vaxxed has barely budged, up by about 1% point to 86%. There’s a similar tale for 40 somethings, now at 75% and up only by about 2% points in that time.
30 somethings have some room to go but there’s diminishing returns to their programme too, with 35-39s now increasing by less than 1% a week and yet to reach two thirds covered. Will be interesting to see if Gen Z uptake is higher than Millennials. It wouldn’t surprise me.
You don't win every single ward in GM through not having an eye for the main chance.
2) Therefore all old people are Tories
3) Therefore they are all evil and rich
4) Therefore hating old people is good.
Muslim voters say unhappiness with Labour leader means they will place votes elsewhere for first time"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/20/muslims-keir-starmer-leaves-batley-voters-disaffected-labour
Pissed-off government supporters might come back for the real thing, but the record on that is patchy. And if the Lib-Lab voter exchange is flowing in a way that it hasn't since 2010, that's significant in itself.
The shrinking working age population can't support itself and fund ever more generous benefits for the expanding retired population.
The NIMS are very much an overestimate of the amount of people to vaccinate. The ONS perhaps an understimate (though if people have left the country it may be accurate).
Wales are using ONS not NIMS aren't they?
NIMS is much closer to the truth than ONS 2019, I think.