City Am reporting that internal LD polling has the party 4% behind in Chesham and Amersham – politic

CarlottaVance said:

Scottish Election Study Pt. II:

Those who backed the SNP and Scottish Greens made their choices for reasons specific to those parties – generally speaking, they liked their policies. For voters supporting pro-union patties, however, the focus was far more on who they were voting against as much as who they were supporting.

http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2021/06/15/thinking-out-cloud-holyrood-2021-explained-part-two/

Anabobazina said:

Euro 2020 has been a great tournament so far. Doesn’t really support the “bloated” theory by @Foxy and others who dismissed the 24 team format before it had even started.

Nigelb said:

Did Sir Ian Blair (on R4 just now) really call Cressida Dick "the finest officer of her generation" ?
The police are in even worse shape than I thought.

Gardenwalker said:

CarlottaVance said:

Scottish Election Study Pt. II:

Those who backed the SNP and Scottish Greens made their choices for reasons specific to those parties – generally speaking, they liked their policies. For voters supporting pro-union patties, however, the focus was far more on who they were voting against as much as who they were supporting.

http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2021/06/15/thinking-out-cloud-holyrood-2021-explained-part-two/

This study doesn’t give much for Pro-Union parties to feast on.

Andy_Cooke said:

NickPalmer said:

another_richard said:

Well we will see.

Until then we can only judge on previous LibDem polling:

Cambridge
LibDem poll 39% first by 9%
LibDem actual 30% second by 18%

Cambs S
LibDem poll 40% first by 4%
LibDem actual 42% second by 4%

Cambs SE
LibDem poll 31% second by 11%
LibDem actual 32% second by 18%

Finchley
LibDem poll 41% first by 12%
LibDem actual 32% second by 12%

Esher
LibDem poll 36% second by 9%
LibDem actual 45% second by 4%

Portsmouth S
LibDem poll 30% first by 3%
LibDem actual 11% third by 37%

Wokingham
LibDem poll 38% second by 4%
LibDem actual 38% second by 12%

Somerset NE
LibDem poll 28% second by 16%
LibDem actual 22% third by 28%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling

Not too bad for the LibDem vote but generally underpredicting the Conservatives.

Portsmouth South was the shocking one - it was obvious that the tactical anti-Tory vote was the sitting :Labour MP, but the LibDems pursued their idiotic "winning here" theme right up to polling day. As I was spending my time there in order not to interfere with the outside chance that the LibDems had in my constituency (SW Surrey), it was particularly annoying. I don't mind when they really do have a shot at winning (as perhaps they do on Thursday, though I somewhat doubt it), but when it's used everywhere it just gets tiresome.

It is frustrating.
Like Carshalton and Wallington in reverse (where the sitting Lib Dem MP lost to the Tories after the Labour no-hope candidate went around trumpeting that it was time for a change of MP, Brake must go.
The joys of FPTP.

CarlottaVance said:

Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:

NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear

https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20

In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....

Gardenwalker said:

Nigelb said:

Did Sir Ian Blair (on R4 just now) really call Cressida Dick "the finest officer of her generation" ?
The police are in even worse shape than I thought.

Blair and Cressida go way back.
All the way to that murdered Brazilian, for example.

Gardenwalker said:

Charles said:

Andy_Cooke said:

NickPalmer said:

another_richard said:

Well we will see.

Until then we can only judge on previous LibDem polling:

Cambridge
LibDem poll 39% first by 9%
LibDem actual 30% second by 18%

Cambs S
LibDem poll 40% first by 4%
LibDem actual 42% second by 4%

Cambs SE
LibDem poll 31% second by 11%
LibDem actual 32% second by 18%

Finchley
LibDem poll 41% first by 12%
LibDem actual 32% second by 12%

Esher
LibDem poll 36% second by 9%
LibDem actual 45% second by 4%

Portsmouth S
LibDem poll 30% first by 3%
LibDem actual 11% third by 37%

Wokingham
LibDem poll 38% second by 4%
LibDem actual 38% second by 12%

Somerset NE
LibDem poll 28% second by 16%
LibDem actual 22% third by 28%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling

Not too bad for the LibDem vote but generally underpredicting the Conservatives.

Portsmouth South was the shocking one - it was obvious that the tactical anti-Tory vote was the sitting :Labour MP, but the LibDems pursued their idiotic "winning here" theme right up to polling day. As I was spending my time there in order not to interfere with the outside chance that the LibDems had in my constituency (SW Surrey), it was particularly annoying. I don't mind when they really do have a shot at winning (as perhaps they do on Thursday, though I somewhat doubt it), but when it's used everywhere it just gets tiresome.

It is frustrating.
Like Carshalton and Wallington in reverse (where the sitting Lib Dem MP lost to the Tories after the Labour no-hope candidate went around trumpeting that it was time for a change of MP, Brake must go.
The joys of FPTP.

Damn political parties standing up for what they believe in and trying to persuade people to support them!

Why can’t we have a nice glossy technocratic government by people who think like you, eh? No need to bother the voters

This is a rather weird response to a pretty standard post bemoaning the (undeniable) perversities of FPTP.

Scott_xP said:

Big problem for No. 10 and 11

Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support

https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

HYUFD said:

Fishing said:

LostPassword said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.

That's his objective.

The logical implication of what he's saying though is a common market for the British Isles, and a more semi-detached relationship for Ireland within the EU.

No, the logical implication is that Varadker thinks the EU can squeeze the UK hard and force it into one way alignment "deals".

I really don't think this is about Brexit, except insofar as that has prompted some to think about preparing for the possibility of a United Ireland becoming a reality.

If leaving the EU rids us of that expensive, embarrassing nuisance, it really will have been a triumph.

I think the Irish may well find they'll have bitten off more than they can chew though. They can afford to pump it full of subsidies the way we do. And if the Northern Irish middle classes suddenly lose their free health care and cushy public sector jobs paid for by the English, they'll be furious. It would be strange if, a few years later, the Irish were begging us to take it back.

Full Irish unity is not happening anyway, loyalists from Antrim to Londonderry and Down will never accept rule by Dublin and nor should they.

As Thatcher correctly said they are as British as Finchley.

The most Catholic bits on the border like Fermanagh and Armagh may eventually unite with Ireland, the Protestant loyalist heartlands, never!!

IanB2 said:

Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

CarlottaVance said:

UK #CPI inflation up to 2.1 pc in May, highest for nearly 2 years. But stripping out VAT cuts (CPIY), the rate is 3.8 pc, - highest for over 12 years! With factory gate prices rising at 4.6 percent, and input price inflation up to 10.7 pc, even more inflation is in the pipeline.

https://twitter.com/asentance/status/1405057187458781186?s=20

Scott_xP said:

Why Brexit is far from over...

This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.

The Russell rumours really make no sense. Mercedes aren’t Red Bull, and Bottas has had three podium finishes from the first six races - which would have been four, if the team hadn’t broken his wheel at Monaco.

moonshine said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Leon said:

moonshine said:

Floater said:

Paging Leon

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/ufo-investigations-us-considering-extraterrestrial-hypothesis

Do I not get a co credit as the sole proponent of this story for months!

By the way I meant to say to Topping yesterday, anyone that uses the phrase “little green men” in a pejorative way at this point of the game, marks themselves out as being at best intellectually incurious. If I’m polite about it. And in any case, if you’ve paid attention since as far back as Mulder and Scully, it should be “little grey men”.

You were first! You switched me on to this

As it happens my explanation has switched back to a mixture of hyperbole, pilot error - and elaborate
US psy-ops exploiting the same, but that is still a huge story - esp given the scale of the establishment reaction. Anyone who dismisses this as a ‘normal’ UFO flap really isn’t paying attention

And I do not rule out other conclusions

The cross party, multi administration psyops conspiracy theory is too far fetched for me. The only non-“exotic” explanation that makes even remote sense, is that mundane misinterpreted observations have captured the imagination of a hardcore of the US security state and it’s taken on a life of its own with each retelling. Secret US tech and foreign tech make no sense at all to me.

But to be honest this looks less likely than the simple conclusion that there is non human technology on earth / in its atmosphere (which has probably been here a long time, probably predating us). There really is no reason why this should be considered a fantastical explanation, it’s the most simple and logical explanation of the wealth of public evidence. And of course the multiple statements by various individuals with past or present top classification security status.

Your first paragraph is a more articulate expression than mine: of what is my present explanation - tho I add extra psy-ops, to fuck with Chinese minds

But I don’t rule out anything else

One of the things that makes me wonder is the multiple descriptions of 2 metre diameter illuminated metal spheres moving with ease between water and air. These, it seems, have been observed by Russian, Iranian and US military in recent decades, always near water

And then I find this. A spherical object apparently flying over the Bristol Channel, filmed by police. Invisible to the eye, observable by IR. Are these ALL weather balloons, but misidentified?!

https://twitter.com/bristollive/status/780776519186743296?s=21

Im fairly sure the only grand conspiracy or psyops campaign today is the one of ridicule around the subject of UFO’s. Which has meant stories like that one were not ever properly investigated and the pieces never put together. Ditto Fravor and the tic-tac. He said his commanding officer took the view of “well ain’t that darndest. File it and forget about it”. Despite the flight mission specifically being to investigate erratically moving objects on the carrier’s radar.

An interesting question is where and why the conspiracy of ridicule arose from, because it was not prevalent until some time in the 1950s. It seems to have been an acceptable and widespread belief before then. And following on from that, why has the conspiracy of ridicule almost completely collapsed (in the US at least) in such a short period?

I start to lean towards the US government concluding there was exotic tech on earth around that time, and someone in the US government or deep state decided to bury it, for reasons unknown. Could be a Cold War aspect to it. Could simply be someone in power was fiercely god fearing and saw the possibility of non human tech as devil’s work.

Either way, a culture of ridicule was created around the topic. Probably no one left alive even remembers why and we’ve just been seeing cultural acquisition of a learned response over seven long decades. Which otherwise smart posters here fall into, when strong evidence of something sincerely interesting and mysterious is being met with some combination of ridicule, mocking, contorted logic, self doubt and even anger.

As you and I have posted before, the popular response to what is being said and shown in America is almost as fascinating as the current machinations in the US government and the “phenomenon” itself.

JohnLilburne said:

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

When does the BoE governor have to write a letter to Mr Sunak?

When it's <1% or >3%. So the last letter would have been written a couple of months ago.

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.

The Russell rumours really make no sense. Mercedes aren’t Red Bull, and Bottas has had three podium finishes from the first six races - which would have been four, if the team hadn’t broken his wheel at Monaco.

Philip_Thompson said:

malcolmg said:

Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

That's a frigging stupid idea if he's proposing that.

And will the right be reciprocated or not?

HYUFD said:

Fishing said:

LostPassword said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.

I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.

It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.

That's his objective.

The logical implication of what he's saying though is a common market for the British Isles, and a more semi-detached relationship for Ireland within the EU.

No, the logical implication is that Varadker thinks the EU can squeeze the UK hard and force it into one way alignment "deals".

I really don't think this is about Brexit, except insofar as that has prompted some to think about preparing for the possibility of a United Ireland becoming a reality.

If leaving the EU rids us of that expensive, embarrassing nuisance, it really will have been a triumph.

I think the Irish may well find they'll have bitten off more than they can chew though. They can afford to pump it full of subsidies the way we do. And if the Northern Irish middle classes suddenly lose their free health care and cushy public sector jobs paid for by the English, they'll be furious. It would be strange if, a few years later, the Irish were begging us to take it back.

Full Irish unity is not happening anyway, loyalists from Antrim to Londonderry and Down will never accept rule by Dublin and nor should they.

As Thatcher correctly said they are as British as Finchley.

The most Catholic bits on the border like Fermanagh and Armagh may eventually unite with Ireland, the Protestant loyalist heartlands, never!!

Sandpit said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.

The human mind struggles with a 10/1 shot in a two horse race. People much prefer a 10/1 fancied runner in the grand national.

On average they have the same chance (barring small over round differences), but it is harder for us to see the former winning.

10/1, in a 40-horse 4 1/2 mile handicapped steeplechase over 6’ fences, is usually indicative of one of the favourites.

10/1, in a two horse race, is a rank outsider who really needs the favourite to fall.

RochdalePioneers said:

Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?

malcolmg said:

Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?

Because anything with the word "Australian" in it focus groups really well among GBeebies viewers. Hence "Australian Style Immigration System" and (talking about but not actually doing) an "Australian Type Response" to the Boris Boats.

malcolmg said:

Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

JohnLilburne said:

malcolmg said:

Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

How is that a reform? Surely they could do it already? Or did English Votes for English Laws actually happen?

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

Big problem for No. 10 and 11

Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support

https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_xP said:

Why Brexit is far from over...

This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.

state_go_away said:

IanB2 said:

Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

very worrying

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.

Unless something a lot more deadly than Covid is stalking the corridors of Westminster creating by elections this could take a while.

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

Big problem for No. 10 and 11

Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support

https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....

That's not why the policy is ineffective. It's because so few comply with the requirement to self isolate.
We knew this a year ago.

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.

DavidL said:

Floater said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_xP said:

Why Brexit is far from over...

This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.

The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....

Progress at last

There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.

rottenborough said:

JohnLilburne said:

malcolmg said:

Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

How is that a reform? Surely they could do it already? Or did English Votes for English Laws actually happen?

It did, I think. Prof Helen Thompson was warning in the Newstatesman the other day that Labour needs to watch out that they don't scrape into power but not have an english majority when it comes to england-only legislation.

Mind you I guess Starmer would give his arm to be in that 'terrible' position given current polling.

noneoftheabove said:

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

Big problem for No. 10 and 11

Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support

https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....

That's not why the policy is ineffective. It's because so few comply with the requirement to self isolate.
We knew this a year ago.

People don't comply with it because they want to keep their jobs.

And of course people isolating in a crowded household spreads the disease more than if they are at least given the choice to isolate, on their own, i.e actually isolate, in a designated hotel as they have done in many other countries.

Gardenwalker said:

DavidL said:

Floater said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_xP said:

Why Brexit is far from over...

This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.

The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....

Progress at last

There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.

I’m not forecasting anything, but we have lost several hundreds of thousands of Europeans, and some millions are still on furlough.

There is certainly a labour shortage.