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City Am reporting that internal LD polling has the party 4% behind in Chesham and Amersham – politic

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Latest Ros Atkins video on the UK-Oz Trade Deal:

    https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1405045800955269123?s=20
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Scottish Election Study Pt. II:

    Those who backed the SNP and Scottish Greens made their choices for reasons specific to those parties – generally speaking, they liked their policies. For voters supporting pro-union patties, however, the focus was far more on who they were voting against as much as who they were supporting.

    http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2021/06/15/thinking-out-cloud-holyrood-2021-explained-part-two/

    This study doesn’t give much for Pro-Union parties to feast on.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    Euro 2020 has been a great tournament so far. Doesn’t really support the “bloated” theory by @Foxy and others who dismissed the 24 team format before it had even started.

    Wonder how many tuned in for Austria vs North Macedonia?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,978
    For a moment there I thought I experienced the GB News taxonomy of paedophilia clip last night in a fever dream but no, this is real life and it happened
    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1405050818299039745

    FURY AS BBC GUEST EXCUSES PAEDOPHILIA AND SPOUTS BIZARRE CLINTON CONSPIRA-

    Sorry sorry - just seen it’s not the BBC. In which case let me just say admiringly what a fresh and different way this is of covering the stories that matter to YOU

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1405054013897424903

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1404921547144433664
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Nigelb said:

    Did Sir Ian Blair (on R4 just now) really call Cressida Dick "the finest officer of her generation" ?
    The police are in even worse shape than I thought.

    Blair and Cressida go way back.
    All the way to that murdered Brazilian, for example.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:

    NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear

    https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20

    In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I have discovered the phenomenon that is Lady Colin-Campbell.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,240
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

    When does the BoE governor have to write a letter to Mr Sunak?
    When it's <1% or >3%. So the last letter would have been written a couple of months ago.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216



    Scottish Election Study Pt. II:

    Those who backed the SNP and Scottish Greens made their choices for reasons specific to those parties – generally speaking, they liked their policies. For voters supporting pro-union patties, however, the focus was far more on who they were voting against as much as who they were supporting.

    http://scottishelections.ac.uk/2021/06/15/thinking-out-cloud-holyrood-2021-explained-part-two/

    This study doesn’t give much for Pro-Union parties to feast on.
    No. But if (and its a big if) Sturgeon was no longer in the picture, things might change as a good chunk of support appears attached to her personally.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,978
    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Our team has been working hard to get our audio right. We've made a number of improvements to the sound overnight - let us know if it's made a difference in your home. We're small, new and building as we go.

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1405052518841950208?s=20
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I see Darren Grimes has made it onto GB News after all, albeit as a preferred “talking head” rather than a presenter.

    LOL.

    Yes, this is the fresh perspective we have all been waiting for, compared with the “biased” BBC.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Well we will see.

    Until then we can only judge on previous LibDem polling:

    Cambridge
    LibDem poll 39% first by 9%
    LibDem actual 30% second by 18%

    Cambs S
    LibDem poll 40% first by 4%
    LibDem actual 42% second by 4%

    Cambs SE
    LibDem poll 31% second by 11%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 18%

    Finchley
    LibDem poll 41% first by 12%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 12%

    Esher
    LibDem poll 36% second by 9%
    LibDem actual 45% second by 4%

    Portsmouth S
    LibDem poll 30% first by 3%
    LibDem actual 11% third by 37%

    Wokingham
    LibDem poll 38% second by 4%
    LibDem actual 38% second by 12%

    Somerset NE
    LibDem poll 28% second by 16%
    LibDem actual 22% third by 28%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling

    Not too bad for the LibDem vote but generally underpredicting the Conservatives.

    Portsmouth South was the shocking one - it was obvious that the tactical anti-Tory vote was the sitting :Labour MP, but the LibDems pursued their idiotic "winning here" theme right up to polling day. As I was spending my time there in order not to interfere with the outside chance that the LibDems had in my constituency (SW Surrey), it was particularly annoying. I don't mind when they really do have a shot at winning (as perhaps they do on Thursday, though I somewhat doubt it), but when it's used everywhere it just gets tiresome.
    It is frustrating.
    Like Carshalton and Wallington in reverse (where the sitting Lib Dem MP lost to the Tories after the Labour no-hope candidate went around trumpeting that it was time for a change of MP, Brake must go.
    The joys of FPTP.
    Damn political parties standing up for what they believe in and trying to persuade people to support them!

    Why can’t we have a nice glossy technocratic government by people who think like you, eh? No need to bother the voters
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Wonder why she got the job?

    Legal sources said that Dorothy Bain QC would be “likely to give a referendum bill the green light” once she was installed as the Scottish government’s senior legal adviser. Her appointment is expected to be voted through at Holyrood tomorrow after her nomination is confirmed.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-lord-advocate-dorothy-bain-qc-backs-referendum-klg3q77pk
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Which may explain some of the (negative) reactions to it:

    NEW: (paywall) UK-Australia trade deal could complicate post-Brexit solution in Northern Ireland, officials fear

    https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1404805761742561288?s=20

    In other words, it takes dynamic alignment perpetual rule-taking on SPS off the table....

    I think the negative reactions come from people who just realise that it would take 2000 such deals to replace the loss of trade pursuant to Brexit.

    Some trade analysts are also claiming that the deal look very weighted in Australia’s favour.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Charles said:

    Well we will see.

    Until then we can only judge on previous LibDem polling:

    Cambridge
    LibDem poll 39% first by 9%
    LibDem actual 30% second by 18%

    Cambs S
    LibDem poll 40% first by 4%
    LibDem actual 42% second by 4%

    Cambs SE
    LibDem poll 31% second by 11%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 18%

    Finchley
    LibDem poll 41% first by 12%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 12%

    Esher
    LibDem poll 36% second by 9%
    LibDem actual 45% second by 4%

    Portsmouth S
    LibDem poll 30% first by 3%
    LibDem actual 11% third by 37%

    Wokingham
    LibDem poll 38% second by 4%
    LibDem actual 38% second by 12%

    Somerset NE
    LibDem poll 28% second by 16%
    LibDem actual 22% third by 28%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling

    Not too bad for the LibDem vote but generally underpredicting the Conservatives.

    Portsmouth South was the shocking one - it was obvious that the tactical anti-Tory vote was the sitting :Labour MP, but the LibDems pursued their idiotic "winning here" theme right up to polling day. As I was spending my time there in order not to interfere with the outside chance that the LibDems had in my constituency (SW Surrey), it was particularly annoying. I don't mind when they really do have a shot at winning (as perhaps they do on Thursday, though I somewhat doubt it), but when it's used everywhere it just gets tiresome.
    It is frustrating.
    Like Carshalton and Wallington in reverse (where the sitting Lib Dem MP lost to the Tories after the Labour no-hope candidate went around trumpeting that it was time for a change of MP, Brake must go.
    The joys of FPTP.
    Damn political parties standing up for what they believe in and trying to persuade people to support them!

    Why can’t we have a nice glossy technocratic government by people who think like you, eh? No need to bother the voters
    This is a rather weird response to a pretty standard post bemoaning the (undeniable) perversities of FPTP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    Nigelb said:

    Did Sir Ian Blair (on R4 just now) really call Cressida Dick "the finest officer of her generation" ?
    The police are in even worse shape than I thought.

    Blair and Cressida go way back.
    All the way to that murdered Brazilian, for example.
    Quite.
    His 'nothing to see here' line about a report which just condemned such obfuscatory attitudes from the Met leadership was also striking.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    UK #CPI inflation up to 2.1 pc in May, highest for nearly 2 years. But stripping out VAT cuts (CPIY), the rate is 3.8 pc, - highest for over 12 years! With factory gate prices rising at 4.6 percent, and input price inflation up to 10.7 pc, even more inflation is in the pipeline.

    https://twitter.com/asentance/status/1405057187458781186?s=20
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    Charles said:

    Well we will see.

    Until then we can only judge on previous LibDem polling:

    Cambridge
    LibDem poll 39% first by 9%
    LibDem actual 30% second by 18%

    Cambs S
    LibDem poll 40% first by 4%
    LibDem actual 42% second by 4%

    Cambs SE
    LibDem poll 31% second by 11%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 18%

    Finchley
    LibDem poll 41% first by 12%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 12%

    Esher
    LibDem poll 36% second by 9%
    LibDem actual 45% second by 4%

    Portsmouth S
    LibDem poll 30% first by 3%
    LibDem actual 11% third by 37%

    Wokingham
    LibDem poll 38% second by 4%
    LibDem actual 38% second by 12%

    Somerset NE
    LibDem poll 28% second by 16%
    LibDem actual 22% third by 28%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling

    Not too bad for the LibDem vote but generally underpredicting the Conservatives.

    Portsmouth South was the shocking one - it was obvious that the tactical anti-Tory vote was the sitting :Labour MP, but the LibDems pursued their idiotic "winning here" theme right up to polling day. As I was spending my time there in order not to interfere with the outside chance that the LibDems had in my constituency (SW Surrey), it was particularly annoying. I don't mind when they really do have a shot at winning (as perhaps they do on Thursday, though I somewhat doubt it), but when it's used everywhere it just gets tiresome.
    It is frustrating.
    Like Carshalton and Wallington in reverse (where the sitting Lib Dem MP lost to the Tories after the Labour no-hope candidate went around trumpeting that it was time for a change of MP, Brake must go.
    The joys of FPTP.
    Damn political parties standing up for what they believe in and trying to persuade people to support them!

    Why can’t we have a nice glossy technocratic government by people who think like you, eh? No need to bother the voters
    This is a rather weird response to a pretty standard post bemoaning the (undeniable) perversities of FPTP.
    Especially as the example given was an encouragement for an anti-vote rather than a positive one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Good:

    #UPDATE | Officers investigating an incident in which a journalist was confronted and chased in the vicinity of #Whitehall have charged a man.

    Martin Hockridge, 57, of Harpenden, is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Tuesday, 29 June.


    https://twitter.com/MetPoliceEvents/status/1405058271724118016?s=20
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    Time to place a bet on the Lib Dems
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,978
    Big problem for No. 10 and 11

    Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

    It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

    And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support


    https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

    Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2021
    I can’t see the Lib Dems winning here.
    There’s no big mo evident.

    And I don’t see anti-lockdown Tories suddenly rallying behind Reform or abstention, either.

    Shame. A Lib Dem win would definitely put the frighteners on Number 10 (who seem easily frightened).
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Floater said:
    Do I not get a co credit as the sole proponent of this story for months!

    By the way I meant to say to Topping yesterday, anyone that uses the phrase “little green men” in a pejorative way at this point of the game, marks themselves out as being at best intellectually incurious. If I’m polite about it. And in any case, if you’ve paid attention since as far back as Mulder and Scully, it should be “little grey men”.
    You were first! You switched me on to this

    As it happens my explanation has switched back to a mixture of hyperbole, pilot error - and elaborate
    US psy-ops exploiting the same, but that is still a huge story - esp given the scale of the establishment reaction. Anyone who dismisses this as a ‘normal’ UFO flap really isn’t paying attention

    And I do not rule out other conclusions
    The cross party, multi administration psyops conspiracy theory is too far fetched for me. The only non-“exotic” explanation that makes even remote sense, is that mundane misinterpreted observations have captured the imagination of a hardcore of the US security state and it’s taken on a life of its own with each retelling. Secret US tech and foreign tech make no sense at all to me.

    But to be honest this looks less likely than the simple conclusion that there is non human technology on earth / in its atmosphere (which has probably been here a long time, probably predating us). There really is no reason why this should be considered a fantastical explanation, it’s the most simple and logical explanation of the wealth of public evidence. And of course the multiple statements by various individuals with past or present top classification security status.
    Your first paragraph is a more articulate expression than mine: of what is my present explanation - tho I add extra psy-ops, to fuck with Chinese minds

    But I don’t rule out anything else

    One of the things that makes me wonder is the multiple descriptions of 2 metre diameter illuminated metal spheres moving with ease between water and air. These, it seems, have been observed by Russian, Iranian and US military in recent decades, always near water

    And then I find this. A spherical object apparently flying over the Bristol Channel, filmed by police. Invisible to the eye, observable by IR. Are these ALL weather balloons, but misidentified?!

    https://twitter.com/bristollive/status/780776519186743296?s=21
    Im fairly sure the only grand conspiracy or psyops campaign today is the one of ridicule around the subject of UFO’s. Which has meant stories like that one were not ever properly investigated and the pieces never put together. Ditto Fravor and the tic-tac. He said his commanding officer took the view of “well ain’t that darndest. File it and forget about it”. Despite the flight mission specifically being to investigate erratically moving objects on the carrier’s radar.

    An interesting question is where and why the conspiracy of ridicule arose from, because it was not prevalent until some time in the 1950s. It seems to have been an acceptable and widespread belief before then. And following on from that, why has the conspiracy of ridicule almost completely collapsed (in the US at least) in such a short period?

    I start to lean towards the US government concluding there was exotic tech on earth around that time, and someone in the US government or deep state decided to bury it, for reasons unknown. Could be a Cold War aspect to it. Could simply be someone in power was fiercely god fearing and saw the possibility of non human tech as devil’s work.

    Either way, a culture of ridicule was created around the topic. Probably no one left alive even remembers why and we’ve just been seeing cultural acquisition of a learned response over seven long decades. Which otherwise smart posters here fall into, when strong evidence of something sincerely interesting and mysterious is being met with some combination of ridicule, mocking, contorted logic, self doubt and even anger.

    As you and I have posted before, the popular response to what is being said and shown in America is almost as fascinating as the current machinations in the US government and the “phenomenon” itself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    Scott_xP said:

    Big problem for No. 10 and 11

    Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

    It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

    And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support


    https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

    This was bleeding obvious over a year ago.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    MaxPB said:

    Magnificent,

    They got done by a Mike Oxlong. Incredible

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1404925854191427586

    Real amateur your stuff. Don't they have an intern to check this stuff before giving it to the presenters? I know the BBC and ITV do.
    Jesus FUCKING Christ, they also fell for Mike Hunt earlier on.

    https://twitter.com/redredmond/status/1404896044396302337
    Can we crowd fund them some big lights for their studio? When Novara Media has better production values you know its a shit operation.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,032
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

    ‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
    belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

    Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

    If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

    Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

    He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

    Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.
    I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

    Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.
    It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.
    That's his objective.

    The logical implication of what he's saying though is a common market for the British Isles, and a more semi-detached relationship for Ireland within the EU.
    No, the logical implication is that Varadker thinks the EU can squeeze the UK hard and force it into one way alignment "deals".
    I really don't think this is about Brexit, except insofar as that has prompted some to think about preparing for the possibility of a United Ireland becoming a reality.
    If leaving the EU rids us of that expensive, embarrassing nuisance, it really will have been a triumph.

    I think the Irish may well find they'll have bitten off more than they can chew though. They can afford to pump it full of subsidies the way we do. And if the Northern Irish middle classes suddenly lose their free health care and cushy public sector jobs paid for by the English, they'll be furious. It would be strange if, a few years later, the Irish were begging us to take it back.
    Full Irish unity is not happening anyway, loyalists from Antrim to Londonderry and Down will never accept rule by Dublin and nor should they.

    As Thatcher correctly said they are as British as Finchley.

    The most Catholic bits on the border like Fermanagh and Armagh may eventually unite with Ireland, the Protestant loyalist heartlands, never!!
    It's British money they love, not Britain.
    Otherwise they'd move here. They know the Republic isn't a sucker, unlike England.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    edited June 2021
    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    The existence of Betfair Exchange ?
    Those who backed the Lib Dems earlier are already in profit.

    (Edit ... why does autocorrect so often attempt to insert unwanted apostrophes ?
    Sheer butchery.)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Looking forward to the results of the audit

    https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1405009407633772545?s=19

    I'm going with a 10 point win for Trump.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can you believe that IKEA responded to a twitter user with just 12 followers today when he asked them to stop putting adverts on GB News?

    Octopus and Ovo energy has said they won't advertise with them... Octopus banging on about they don't advertise with companies that promote hate.

    FFS, so far what I have seen is amateur production, pretty cringe and anti-woke moan, but some of these companies are making out that GBNews is like some sort of British Daily Stormer.

    Until a month ago basically all the presenters were on mainstream media and even the anti-woke stuff is no more than what Talk Radio bang on about.

    Pretty sad that some companies have no backbone, a few people on twitter claim some bullshit and they crap their pants. I mean the co-op did with the Spectator...again a totally mainstream publication.
    Trial by twitter is one of the issues which I firmly agree with GB News on.
    Is it trial by twitter? Several of the brands who have "boycotted" the station were surprised to find their ads on it in the first place. When you spend marketing dollah its usual to choose what it is spent on, even with telly slots.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    IanB2 said:

    Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

    very worrying
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

    Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.

    The Russell rumours really make no sense. Mercedes aren’t Red Bull, and Bottas has had three podium finishes from the first six races - which would have been four, if the team hadn’t broken his wheel at Monaco.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,112

    UK #CPI inflation up to 2.1 pc in May, highest for nearly 2 years. But stripping out VAT cuts (CPIY), the rate is 3.8 pc, - highest for over 12 years! With factory gate prices rising at 4.6 percent, and input price inflation up to 10.7 pc, even more inflation is in the pipeline.

    https://twitter.com/asentance/status/1405057187458781186?s=20

    The job market in California is the hottest it has ever been: people want to go out and the restaurants are massively short staffed.

    There's going to be significant upward pressure on wages. It will be very interesting to see if this is a short term or a long term issue.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I see GB has already succeeded wildly in its aim; which is to provide fodder for culture war “controversies” so that no-one needs to worry about voting in their actual class interests.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,809
    Scott_xP said:

    Big problem for No. 10 and 11

    Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

    It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

    And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support


    https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

    Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

    If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,309
    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,112
    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

    Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.

    The Russell rumours really make no sense. Mercedes aren’t Red Bull, and Bottas has had three podium finishes from the first six races - which would have been four, if the team hadn’t broken his wheel at Monaco.
    Bottarse is a driver incapable of overtaking in a car which is second or even third fastest on some tracks. His open refusal to follow team orders, the Monaco fiasco which he caused and his seemingly bored attitude means I would bin him off now for Russell.

    Mercedes are about to lose the Manufacturer Title for the first time in ages. A lot of prestige and a lot of money is on the line. Sitting by Bottarse whose contract is already a sunk cost makes no sense when he is going to drag the team's chances of beating RedBull backwards.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,809
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.
    The human mind struggles with a 10/1 shot in a two horse race. People much prefer a 10/1 fancied runner in the grand national.

    On average they have the same chance (barring small over round differences), but it is harder for us to see the former winning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Floater said:
    Do I not get a co credit as the sole proponent of this story for months!

    By the way I meant to say to Topping yesterday, anyone that uses the phrase “little green men” in a pejorative way at this point of the game, marks themselves out as being at best intellectually incurious. If I’m polite about it. And in any case, if you’ve paid attention since as far back as Mulder and Scully, it should be “little grey men”.
    You were first! You switched me on to this

    As it happens my explanation has switched back to a mixture of hyperbole, pilot error - and elaborate
    US psy-ops exploiting the same, but that is still a huge story - esp given the scale of the establishment reaction. Anyone who dismisses this as a ‘normal’ UFO flap really isn’t paying attention

    And I do not rule out other conclusions
    The cross party, multi administration psyops conspiracy theory is too far fetched for me. The only non-“exotic” explanation that makes even remote sense, is that mundane misinterpreted observations have captured the imagination of a hardcore of the US security state and it’s taken on a life of its own with each retelling. Secret US tech and foreign tech make no sense at all to me.

    But to be honest this looks less likely than the simple conclusion that there is non human technology on earth / in its atmosphere (which has probably been here a long time, probably predating us). There really is no reason why this should be considered a fantastical explanation, it’s the most simple and logical explanation of the wealth of public evidence. And of course the multiple statements by various individuals with past or present top classification security status.
    Your first paragraph is a more articulate expression than mine: of what is my present explanation - tho I add extra psy-ops, to fuck with Chinese minds

    But I don’t rule out anything else

    One of the things that makes me wonder is the multiple descriptions of 2 metre diameter illuminated metal spheres moving with ease between water and air. These, it seems, have been observed by Russian, Iranian and US military in recent decades, always near water

    And then I find this. A spherical object apparently flying over the Bristol Channel, filmed by police. Invisible to the eye, observable by IR. Are these ALL weather balloons, but misidentified?!

    https://twitter.com/bristollive/status/780776519186743296?s=21
    Im fairly sure the only grand conspiracy or psyops campaign today is the one of ridicule around the subject of UFO’s. Which has meant stories like that one were not ever properly investigated and the pieces never put together. Ditto Fravor and the tic-tac. He said his commanding officer took the view of “well ain’t that darndest. File it and forget about it”. Despite the flight mission specifically being to investigate erratically moving objects on the carrier’s radar.

    An interesting question is where and why the conspiracy of ridicule arose from, because it was not prevalent until some time in the 1950s. It seems to have been an acceptable and widespread belief before then. And following on from that, why has the conspiracy of ridicule almost completely collapsed (in the US at least) in such a short period?

    I start to lean towards the US government concluding there was exotic tech on earth around that time, and someone in the US government or deep state decided to bury it, for reasons unknown. Could be a Cold War aspect to it. Could simply be someone in power was fiercely god fearing and saw the possibility of non human tech as devil’s work.

    Either way, a culture of ridicule was created around the topic. Probably no one left alive even remembers why and we’ve just been seeing cultural acquisition of a learned response over seven long decades. Which otherwise smart posters here fall into, when strong evidence of something sincerely interesting and mysterious is being met with some combination of ridicule, mocking, contorted logic, self doubt and even anger.

    As you and I have posted before, the popular response to what is being said and shown in America is almost as fascinating as the current machinations in the US government and the “phenomenon” itself.
    So what would constitute a 'proper investigation' ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....

    Progress at last

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

    When does the BoE governor have to write a letter to Mr Sunak?
    When it's <1% or >3%. So the last letter would have been written a couple of months ago.
    Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

    That's a frigging stupid idea if he's proposing that.

    And will the right be reciprocated or not?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

    Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.

    The Russell rumours really make no sense. Mercedes aren’t Red Bull, and Bottas has had three podium finishes from the first six races - which would have been four, if the team hadn’t broken his wheel at Monaco.
    On the one bit of evidence we've had, Russell would have got more than 3 podium finishes from the first 6 races.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.
    The human mind struggles with a 10/1 shot in a two horse race. People much prefer a 10/1 fancied runner in the grand national.

    On average they have the same chance (barring small over round differences), but it is harder for us to see the former winning.
    10/1, in a 40-horse 4 1/2 mile handicapped steeplechase over 6’ fences, is usually indicative of one of the favourites.

    10/1, in a two horse race, is a rank outsider who really needs the favourite to fall.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,240
    malcolmg said:

    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

    How is that a reform? Surely they could do it already? Or did English Votes for English Laws actually happen?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    malcolmg said:

    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

    That's a frigging stupid idea if he's proposing that.

    And will the right be reciprocated or not?
    Probably one way of turbo charging English independence
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

    When does the BoE governor have to write a letter to Mr Sunak?
    When it's <1% or >3%. So the last letter would have been written a couple of months ago.
    Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.
    Trend is your friend (or enemy in this case).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,887
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

    ‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
    belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

    Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

    If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

    Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

    He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

    Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.
    I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

    Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.
    It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.
    That's his objective.

    The logical implication of what he's saying though is a common market for the British Isles, and a more semi-detached relationship for Ireland within the EU.
    No, the logical implication is that Varadker thinks the EU can squeeze the UK hard and force it into one way alignment "deals".
    I really don't think this is about Brexit, except insofar as that has prompted some to think about preparing for the possibility of a United Ireland becoming a reality.
    If leaving the EU rids us of that expensive, embarrassing nuisance, it really will have been a triumph.

    I think the Irish may well find they'll have bitten off more than they can chew though. They can afford to pump it full of subsidies the way we do. And if the Northern Irish middle classes suddenly lose their free health care and cushy public sector jobs paid for by the English, they'll be furious. It would be strange if, a few years later, the Irish were begging us to take it back.
    Full Irish unity is not happening anyway, loyalists from Antrim to Londonderry and Down will never accept rule by Dublin and nor should they.

    As Thatcher correctly said they are as British as Finchley.

    The most Catholic bits on the border like Fermanagh and Armagh may eventually unite with Ireland, the Protestant loyalist heartlands, never!!
    I think the full sentence has another two "nevers"
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207

    Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?

    No, though I doubt he cares very much either way.
    But it does rather look like the Aussies saw him coming.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,809
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.
    The human mind struggles with a 10/1 shot in a two horse race. People much prefer a 10/1 fancied runner in the grand national.

    On average they have the same chance (barring small over round differences), but it is harder for us to see the former winning.
    10/1, in a 40-horse 4 1/2 mile handicapped steeplechase over 6’ fences, is usually indicative of one of the favourites.

    10/1, in a two horse race, is a rank outsider who really needs the favourite to fall.
    Indeed but they have the same chances.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

    Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.

    The Russell rumours really make no sense. Mercedes aren’t Red Bull, and Bottas has had three podium finishes from the first six races - which would have been four, if the team hadn’t broken his wheel at Monaco.
    This is F1; it needn't make sense.
    There's also the point that Russell is a fairly hot property who won't be content to stay forever at Williams.
    Though I expect they might give Bottas a new chassis before doing anything precipitate. There's a moderate chance the current one has some sort of problem.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?

    Because anything with the word "Australian" in it focus groups really well among GBeebies viewers. Hence "Australian Style Immigration System" and (talking about but not actually doing) an "Australian Type Response" to the Boris Boats.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,903

    Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?

    I do not feel that Johnson and his Gang have the long-term interests of this country at heart.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    Pearson in Telegraph:

    "You just know Mrs T would have told Sage to get stuffed."

    "This past week, I even found myself in the previously unimaginable position of wishing Theresa May were still at No 10"


    Interesting. Would it be different with a different PM? Even Johnson looked like a man wholly unconvinced by what he was announcing on Monday.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,012
    As I have commented before I have GBnews on when Burley is presenting Sky, but then switch back to Sky in the background

    GBnews is new, different, and very definitely experiencing technical problems and their studio is rubbish

    I am not convinced yet about their offering, but the fact that the left and this twitter mob are going way over the top does remind me of 'you protest too much' and of course getting companies to boycott them is a gift beyond belief, as they have managed to generate far more interest for them as evidenced yesterday by this forum which was full of pro and anti posts

    GBnews has a lot to learn and some way to go to compete with Sky and BBC but I hope in time they become a good alternative to the other two
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,012
    malcolmg said:

    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

    Seems idiotic if true
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.
    Unless something a lot more deadly than Covid is stalking the corridors of Westminster creating by elections this could take a while.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,809
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?

    Because anything with the word "Australian" in it focus groups really well among GBeebies viewers. Hence "Australian Style Immigration System" and (talking about but not actually doing) an "Australian Type Response" to the Boris Boats.
    It is hard to believe we had an immigration system based on points for different criteria before we got our "Australian Style" one but we did. The new points are in many cases easier to achieve than the old ones. The big difference of course is the EU, not the style of immigration system.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,887
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leo Varadkar has been apparently ‘ramping up tensions’ with this

    ‘United Ireland ‘can happen in my lifetime’ – Leo Varadkar tells Fine Gael ard fheis
    belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-…’

    Leo V is 42. He is therefore saying something ‘can’ happen in the next four decades, maybe

    If you are stoked by this you are easily triggered

    Within 40 years we will be ruled by computers based in space, or worse. I doubt we will be worrying about ‘Irish unification’

    He's also saying some interesting things. Thinking about ways in which the Republic would have to change so that a United Ireland would be a success. Talking about a closer relationship with the UK.

    Very different from the Sinn Fein approach of completing the war of independence.
    I'd be interested in understanding what a "new and closer relationship" with the UK would look like.

    Just a bit of cosmetics whilst keeping the Euro and plunging full deep into the machinations of EU political union wouldn't cut it.
    It's almost a certainty he means the other way around, that the UK will be crowbarred back into the EU's orbit.
    That's his objective.

    The logical implication of what he's saying though is a common market for the British Isles, and a more semi-detached relationship for Ireland within the EU.
    No, the logical implication is that Varadker thinks the EU can squeeze the UK hard and force it into one way alignment "deals".
    I really don't think this is about Brexit, except insofar as that has prompted some to think about preparing for the possibility of a United Ireland becoming a reality.
    If leaving the EU rids us of that expensive, embarrassing nuisance, it really will have been a triumph.

    I think the Irish may well find they'll have bitten off more than they can chew though. They can afford to pump it full of subsidies the way we do. And if the Northern Irish middle classes suddenly lose their free health care and cushy public sector jobs paid for by the English, they'll be furious. It would be strange if, a few years later, the Irish were begging us to take it back.
    I know nothing about subsidies but I've visited and worked in Dublin several times. It is a fantastic and thriving city and anyone preferring to stay with the otiose Northern Ireland is barking mad
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

    I don't see how he thinks p*ssing off English voters will help "rejuvenate the Union".....
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,722
    Sean_F said:

    Time to place a bet on the Lib Dems

    Could you please clarify as to why?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173

    Pearson in Telegraph:

    "You just know Mrs T would have told Sage to get stuffed."

    "This past week, I even found myself in the previously unimaginable position of wishing Theresa May were still at No 10"


    Interesting. Would it be different with a different PM? Even Johnson looked like a man wholly unconvinced by what he was announcing on Monday.

    I really don't know, but I thought it was really interesting what Cummings had to say about this. He is someone who seems self-assured and confident, yet even he said it was difficult to go against what the experts were saying. "What if I'm wrong?" was an interesting comment.

    For sure, it's almost certainly easier to play this game from the sidelines...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688

    malcolmg said:

    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

    How is that a reform? Surely they could do it already? Or did English Votes for English Laws actually happen?
    It did, I think. Prof Helen Thompson was warning in the Newstatesman the other day that Labour needs to watch out that they don't scrape into power but not have an english majority when it comes to england-only legislation.

    Mind you I guess Starmer would give his arm to be in that 'terrible' position given current polling.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Well we will see.

    Until then we can only judge on previous LibDem polling:

    Cambridge
    LibDem poll 39% first by 9%
    LibDem actual 30% second by 18%

    Cambs S
    LibDem poll 40% first by 4%
    LibDem actual 42% second by 4%

    Cambs SE
    LibDem poll 31% second by 11%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 18%

    Finchley
    LibDem poll 41% first by 12%
    LibDem actual 32% second by 12%

    Esher
    LibDem poll 36% second by 9%
    LibDem actual 45% second by 4%

    Portsmouth S
    LibDem poll 30% first by 3%
    LibDem actual 11% third by 37%

    Wokingham
    LibDem poll 38% second by 4%
    LibDem actual 38% second by 12%

    Somerset NE
    LibDem poll 28% second by 16%
    LibDem actual 22% third by 28%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Constituency_polling

    Not too bad for the LibDem vote but generally underpredicting the Conservatives.

    Portsmouth South was the shocking one - it was obvious that the tactical anti-Tory vote was the sitting :Labour MP, but the LibDems pursued their idiotic "winning here" theme right up to polling day. As I was spending my time there in order not to interfere with the outside chance that the LibDems had in my constituency (SW Surrey), it was particularly annoying. I don't mind when they really do have a shot at winning (as perhaps they do on Thursday, though I somewhat doubt it), but when it's used everywhere it just gets tiresome.
    It is frustrating.
    Like Carshalton and Wallington in reverse (where the sitting Lib Dem MP lost to the Tories after the Labour no-hope candidate went around trumpeting that it was time for a change of MP, Brake must go.
    The joys of FPTP.
    Damn political parties standing up for what they believe in and trying to persuade people to support them!

    Why can’t we have a nice glossy technocratic government by people who think like you, eh? No need to bother the voters
    This is a rather weird response to a pretty standard post bemoaning the (undeniable) perversities of FPTP.
    It was two posts complaining about their opponents campaigning for election
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    Scott_xP said:

    Big problem for No. 10 and 11

    Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

    It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

    And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support


    https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

    Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

    If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....
    That's not why the policy is ineffective. It's because so few comply with the requirement to self isolate.
    We knew this a year ago.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,112
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    Got an email from my old mucker Boris this morning. He seems pretty chuffed with the Australia deal and think it leads to membership of the TPP which he believes is going to be worth tens of thousands of jobs. It does seem clear that government policy is focused on joining the TPP as a larger, more dynamic if somewhat further away trading bloc than the EU SM. The opportunities for our services industries, who are rather less bothered about the distance, could be immense.

    I will be genuinely astonished if anyone will ever be able to produce credible evidence that this change of partners has led to either extra or less growth than some theoretical hypothetical.
    If I remember correctly, the CPTPP doesn't have much to say on the subject of services. It'd be great to join it, but I don't think it'd turbo charge services exports to the region.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: I think the lack of certain markets might be due to rumours regarding Russell perhaps replacing Bottas sooner rather than later (potentially in-season).

    Miss Vance, luckily there are dozens of police who were bystanders and can act as useful witnesses in the investigation.

    The Russell rumours really make no sense. Mercedes aren’t Red Bull, and Bottas has had three podium finishes from the first six races - which would have been four, if the team hadn’t broken his wheel at Monaco.
    This is F1; it needn't make sense.
    There's also the point that Russell is a fairly hot property who won't be content to stay forever at Williams.
    Though I expect they might give Bottas a new chassis before doing anything precipitate. There's a moderate chance the current one has some sort of problem.
    I'm curious as to what was a very obvious decision for next season's team is suddenly becoming a decision that will occur this season.

    Unless there is a concern that Russell joining Mercedes next season may result in Lewis deciding to call things quits.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    The UK has been pretty much at full employment for the whole past decade. Unemployment is the dog that hasn't barked for a while now.

    What will be interesting to keep an eye on is whether unemployment does return, or if it doesn't then incomes, GNI per capita etc
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

    very worrying

    Inevitable, sadly. We’re in for a rocky ride for the next year.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    Got an email from my old mucker Boris this morning. He seems pretty chuffed with the Australia deal and think it leads to membership of the TPP which he believes is going to be worth tens of thousands of jobs. It does seem clear that government policy is focused on joining the TPP as a larger, more dynamic if somewhat further away trading bloc than the EU SM. The opportunities for our services industries, who are rather less bothered about the distance, could be immense.

    I will be genuinely astonished if anyone will ever be able to produce credible evidence that this change of partners has led to either extra or less growth than some theoretical hypothetical.
    If I remember correctly, the CPTPP doesn't have much to say on the subject of services. It'd be great to join it, but I don't think it'd turbo charge services exports to the region.
    The Canadian government disagrees with you: https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/sectors-secteurs/services.aspx?lang=eng
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,112
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.
    Unless something a lot more deadly than Covid is stalking the corridors of Westminster creating by elections this could take a while.
    I think the LibDems should be 8 or 9 to 1. If I am offered dramatically better odds than the real probability, I jump at it.

    If someone offers me 1,000-1 and the real odds are 100-1, you should jump on it.

    The most likely result is LibDems in the low 40s, and the Conservatives in the high 40s.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,615
    edited June 2021

    Pearson in Telegraph:

    "You just know Mrs T would have told Sage to get stuffed."

    "This past week, I even found myself in the previously unimaginable position of wishing Theresa May were still at No 10"


    Interesting. Would it be different with a different PM? Even Johnson looked like a man wholly unconvinced by what he was announcing on Monday.

    Utter bollocks once more from Mrs Pearson.

    See Mrs Thatcher's approach to the AIDS pandemic.

    She listened to the science because she also understood the dangers of exponential growth.

    I'd also remind you and her that Mrs Thatcher passed the Public Health (Infectious Diseases) Regulations 1985.

    That allowed the state to detain people in hospital (or elsewhere) if they were thought to be a risk of spreading disease and it also allowed for compulsory medical examinations.

    Mrs Thatcher allowed herself to overruled by the cabinet and CMO when it came to AIDS policy.

    She wanted it to be a moral campaign, they wanted it to be a practical approach.

    But she still went out and sold the policy to the nation, she didn't mope.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,809
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Big problem for No. 10 and 11

    Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

    It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

    And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support


    https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

    Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

    If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....
    That's not why the policy is ineffective. It's because so few comply with the requirement to self isolate.
    We knew this a year ago.
    People don't comply with it because they want to keep their jobs.

    And of course people isolating in a crowded household spreads the disease more than if they are at least given the choice to isolate, on their own, i.e actually isolate, in a designated hotel as they have done in many other countries.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....

    Progress at last

    There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.
    I’m not forecasting anything, but we have lost several hundreds of thousands of Europeans, and some millions are still on furlough.

    There is certainly a labour shortage.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....

    Progress at last

    There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.
    There will be zero unemployment in the UK for the foreseeable future, the whole Brexit has caused unemployment argument is already dead in the water.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,949

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation up 0.5% to 2.1%

    When does the BoE governor have to write a letter to Mr Sunak?
    When it's <1% or >3%. So the last letter would have been written a couple of months ago.
    Indeed. The amusing thing is that at 2.1% the inflation rate now is 0.1% off target versus 0.4% off target last month. Not that many people will be saying that today.
    Finally you accept that the inflation target is 2%.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,887
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not an expert on this betting malarky but as I understand it how it works is that you put £10 on the Lib Dems at 13.5:1 and you lose £10. Have I missed anything?

    Eight out of nine times, if bet on the LDs in circumstances like this, you will lose money. If you are offered 15 or 20 to 1, you take it, because even though you lose money 88% of the time, it's a value bet.
    As a fairly recent Man City covert I put £5 on their opponent every match. If they lose I win somewhere between £40-70 a game. It makes the pain of loss slightly less and I usually end the season with the £300 I started with
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    Why has Shagger signed a deal to flood the UK with cheap Aussie beef and lamb? Is he deliberately trying to kill farming?

    Because its a great deal.

    Why are you happy with Danish bacon, Irish beef and Spanish pork but you're absolutely terrified of Australian beef and lamb?
    Surely the whole point of departing the CAP and CFP was to prioritise domestic production. Irish Beef doesn't count as foreign - or didn't - due to our existing links with Ireland and teh huge amount of cross border moves for processing and packing.

    Australia will tip <25k tons of each onto the market and crash the price. their mega farmers can afford lower revenues per animal but more animals, ours can't afford lower revenue and lower volumes.

    It is a policy straight from the Singapore-on-Thames playbook where we destroy all remaining industry to focus on productive things like banking and luxury shopping.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,207
    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....

    Progress at last

    There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.
    In several sectors that I am personally aware of/involved with, the job market is booming - IT, finance, construction, logistics.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Of course Carole has an angle.....

    Met police’s inexplicable & unexplained abandonment of cases against Vote Leave & LeaveEU after findings of illegality by the Electoral Commission needs to be reviewed by MPs. Cressida Dick refused to answer any & all questions. Why?

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1405058211808518144?s=20
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    malcolmg said:

    Can Gove really be as thick as he makes out..........

    Scottish MPs will be given the right to vote down English legislation in a major constitutional reform being considered by the government to rejuvenate the Union

    How is that a reform? Surely they could do it already? Or did English Votes for English Laws actually happen?
    It did, I think. Prof Helen Thompson was warning in the Newstatesman the other day that Labour needs to watch out that they don't scrape into power but not have an english majority when it comes to england-only legislation.

    Mind you I guess Starmer would give his arm to be in that 'terrible' position given current polling.
    Helen Thompson is a berk, then.

    In some ways this situation would be analogous to the President who does not also have a majority in the Senate.

    There is still a lot of things such a government could do.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,402
    For those that are interested, you can get all the back episodes of Drop The Dead Donkey on Britbox.

    My wife and I are avid viewers!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,402
    Nigelb said:

    Did Sir Ian Blair (on R4 just now) really call Cressida Dick "the finest officer of her generation" ?
    The police are in even worse shape than I thought.

    Sir Ian Blair?

    That's probably the kiss of death for her.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,775
    Mr. Sandpit, well, it's only a rumour.

    Bottas has had a mixed year, he's done well at quite a few places, but Wolff blaming him, initially, for the Monaco pit stop farce may indicate he's not exactly well-loved.

    Went missing at a couple of races too, including Baku.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Big problem for No. 10 and 11

    Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

    It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

    And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support


    https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

    Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

    If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....
    That's not why the policy is ineffective. It's because so few comply with the requirement to self isolate.
    We knew this a year ago.
    People don't comply with it because they want to keep their jobs.

    And of course people isolating in a crowded household spreads the disease more than if they are at least given the choice to isolate, on their own, i.e actually isolate, in a designated hotel as they have done in many other countries.
    Sure.
    Point is we knew all this a year ago, and a few of us got quite heated about the lack of government action back then.
    A properly thought out system of isolation could have saved tens of thousands of lives last winter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Big problem for No. 10 and 11

    Internal govt assessment finds current self-isolation policy has "low to medium" effectiveness

    It warns there are "barriers" & "disincentives" to isolating

    And urges ministers to do more on sick pay / financial support


    https://politi.co/3svJcDk https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405057805992697858/photo/1

    Well thats a shocker! Who would have thought isolating in a crowded household might spread the disease to the other members of the household? Or that some people will choose to keep their jobs rather than isolate if financial and legal safeguards are not put in place?

    If only governing was a bit easier and we didn't keep seeing curve balls like these.....
    That's not why the policy is ineffective. It's because so few comply with the requirement to self isolate.
    We knew this a year ago.
    People don't comply with it because they want to keep their jobs.

    And of course people isolating in a crowded household spreads the disease more than if they are at least given the choice to isolate, on their own, i.e actually isolate, in a designated hotel as they have done in many other countries.
    Yep, that’s what they did in the sandpit (and I think also in Singapore) where there’s quite of lot of high-density accommodation for construction and hospitality workers. Anyone testing positive was removed to a field hospital if they couldn’t isolate alone.

    In the UK, there were problems with farm workers, meat packers, warehouses and prisons, for similar reasons. And Leicester, with its own set of problems in the textile industry and overcrowded accommodation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,231
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Floater said:
    Do I not get a co credit as the sole proponent of this story for months!

    By the way I meant to say to Topping yesterday, anyone that uses the phrase “little green men” in a pejorative way at this point of the game, marks themselves out as being at best intellectually incurious. If I’m polite about it. And in any case, if you’ve paid attention since as far back as Mulder and Scully, it should be “little grey men”.
    You were first! You switched me on to this

    As it happens my explanation has switched back to a mixture of hyperbole, pilot error - and elaborate
    US psy-ops exploiting the same, but that is still a huge story - esp given the scale of the establishment reaction. Anyone who dismisses this as a ‘normal’ UFO flap really isn’t paying attention

    And I do not rule out other conclusions
    The cross party, multi administration psyops conspiracy theory is too far fetched for me. The only non-“exotic” explanation that makes even remote sense, is that mundane misinterpreted observations have captured the imagination of a hardcore of the US security state and it’s taken on a life of its own with each retelling. Secret US tech and foreign tech make no sense at all to me.

    But to be honest this looks less likely than the simple conclusion that there is non human technology on earth / in its atmosphere (which has probably been here a long time, probably predating us). There really is no reason why this should be considered a fantastical explanation, it’s the most simple and logical explanation of the wealth of public evidence. And of course the multiple statements by various individuals with past or present top classification security status.
    Your first paragraph is a more articulate expression than mine: of what is my present explanation - tho I add extra psy-ops, to fuck with Chinese minds

    But I don’t rule out anything else

    One of the things that makes me wonder is the multiple descriptions of 2 metre diameter illuminated metal spheres moving with ease between water and air. These, it seems, have been observed by Russian, Iranian and US military in recent decades, always near water

    And then I find this. A spherical object apparently flying over the Bristol Channel, filmed by police. Invisible to the eye, observable by IR. Are these ALL weather balloons, but misidentified?!

    https://twitter.com/bristollive/status/780776519186743296?s=21
    Im fairly sure the only grand conspiracy or psyops campaign today is the one of ridicule around the subject of UFO’s. Which has meant stories like that one were not ever properly investigated and the pieces never put together. Ditto Fravor and the tic-tac. He said his commanding officer took the view of “well ain’t that darndest. File it and forget about it”. Despite the flight mission specifically being to investigate erratically moving objects on the carrier’s radar.

    An interesting question is where and why the conspiracy of ridicule arose from, because it was not prevalent until some time in the 1950s. It seems to have been an acceptable and widespread belief before then. And following on from that, why has the conspiracy of ridicule almost completely collapsed (in the US at least) in such a short period?

    I start to lean towards the US government concluding there was exotic tech on earth around that time, and someone in the US government or deep state decided to bury it, for reasons unknown. Could be a Cold War aspect to it. Could simply be someone in power was fiercely god fearing and saw the possibility of non human tech as devil’s work.

    Either way, a culture of ridicule was created around the topic. Probably no one left alive even remembers why and we’ve just been seeing cultural acquisition of a learned response over seven long decades. Which otherwise smart posters here fall into, when strong evidence of something sincerely interesting and mysterious is being met with some combination of ridicule, mocking, contorted logic, self doubt and even anger.

    As you and I have posted before, the popular response to what is being said and shown in America is almost as fascinating as the current machinations in the US government and the “phenomenon” itself.
    There WAS, I think, a concerted attempt to hush up UFO sightings and make them socially unacceptable. Sometime in the 1950s, at the height of the Cold War, the Pentagon became concerned that many UFO sightings were actually observations of genuine secret planes/weapons. They then worried that info on these weapons would leak out in the excitement

    So they began to stigmatise UFOs. Got posh experts in to talk loftily about swamp gas. From then on anyone who saw a UFO was a nutter and probably inbred. A proto-Trumpite
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797

    DavidL said:

    Floater said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Why Brexit is far from over...

    This is great by @rafaelbehr: "The project’s goals are too abstract to be attainable – there are no new jobs in the sovereignty-manufacturing sector – so momentum is maintained by always reimagining and refighting the old enemy."
    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1405054314960375812

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/16/british-politics-drunk-brexit-spirit-boris-johnson

    Much of the coverage is one-sided blether or course, but there is a nugget here: "there are no new jobs". Unless Brexit starts to deliver jobs and prosperity to the people who voted for it, there will be trouble.
    The claim used to be mass unemployment if you recall....

    Progress at last

    There is increasing evidence that the UK jobs miracle machine is coughing back into action. Expect more and more lamentations about the shortage of labour by those who forecast the said mass unemployment without the hint of a blush.
    I’m not forecasting anything, but we have lost several hundreds of thousands of Europeans, and some millions are still on furlough.

    There is certainly a labour shortage.
    There is no question that the loss of several hundred thousand EU citizens, mainly young, often students, is creating labour shortages in some areas. I think, on balance, Rishi was right not to extend furlough beyond 1st July. There is going to be a lot to do and we do not want dead businesses hoarding labour that could be better deployed elsewhere.
This discussion has been closed.