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In just three weeks there’ve been CON leads ranging between 1% and 18% in the published national pol
In just three weeks there’ve been CON leads ranging between 1% and 18% in the published national polls – politicalbetting.com
Above is the Wikipedia table of the latest voting intention polls and as can be seen there is a huge variation between the polls. In fact the gap when looking at them from the CON lead perspective is as great as anything I have seen since establishing PB in March 2004.
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https://twitter.com/RyanairPress/status/1396543331878981632/photo/1
Would the Russians, sorry, Belarusians actually have shot the plane down if it had kept flying to Vilnius? Surely not. Although it would have been a brave call for the pilot to make.
@GoodwinMJ
London
Labour 40%
Conservative 36%
Non-London South
Labour 20%
Conservative 56%
YouGov"
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1396405016492187656
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57223902
4/7 Conservative
6/4 Labour
100/1 bar
What I can't work out is what is behind this large Lab drop off in vote share? Its not like Starmer has been revealed as friends of Hamas like old Jezza or tied to Martin Bashir or been caught getting donors to pay for his home.
He has just carried on as before, boring Keith...those that like that, why would they have changed their mind over the past month, as he has again been boring Keith.
People are getting vaccinated, things are opening up again, spring is slowly turning to summer, no-one cares about wallpaper. Life is good for the government.
Next year, when we are still 100bn in the hole and inflation starts to run away, might be a different story.
Maybe by then, LotO might have dropped the over-emoting Prince Harry tribute act and have some policies to talk about.
It seems Bailey did really well in some outlet london wards that have been strongly Labour in recent years. Including my own.
He needs to step down fairly soon, and have a leadership contest that might get some juices flowing. Next summer, once he has done whatever internal reforms are needed.
I suspect that he will hang on too long though, and be a drag on Labour at the next election.
Labour do need to form some sort of offer though. One for the 21st Century. But I don't expect a new leader to come in and do that within a few months, especially with the pandemic and also what we are told about the Labour party machine itself is in a mess and taken up with legal issues still ongoing from Corbyn's time.
Turning the Labour party around (or any after becoming toxic) seems like trying to shift that oil tanker stuck in the Suez canal.
When Boris finally crashes and burns, the Tories will have a similar issue, and I wouldn't be surprised if they take 10 years to counter a lot of the damage he does...unless they are smart and shift him off at an optimal time.
SavantaComRes: +4, +8, +11
RedField: +2, +11, +9
YouGov: +10, +15, +18
All of which show a +7 or +8 increase from first to last, as does Opinium with two polls:
Opinium: +5, +13
So what ever the Tory lead is I think we can safely say is it’s gone up by 7-8 points.
A pandemic is a terrible time to be a politician not in power, you can’t really oppose in the way you normally would, and the constant focus on the government doesn’t give you much coverage even when you do. It also doesn’t help when the things the government is being critisised for (not shutting international travel etc) are things you’d have done the same.
I do think he’s starting to understand the ‘London Problem’, although convincing those around him to get out into the Red Wall might be a little bit more tricky.
From a purely electoral point of view, he needs to turn about 80 blue seats red at the next election. Where are those seats, and what does he have to offer the people living there in the next couple of years, at a time when there have been many encouraging announcements of jobs and investment in areas that just turned blue? Also note that most of the investment is private money, with government trying to their best to get out of the way with free zones and plannning reforms.
Wonderful to hear Jackie Kennedy is safe and well following her trip to Dallas #TweetLikeValean
https://twitter.com/mseltzermayr/status/1396586149087428612?s=20
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/24/south-east-asian-countries-battle-covid-resurgence-amid-lack-of-vaccines
Sometimes, getting everyone on the phone and agreeing a carefully worded statement works somewhat better!
That said, Belarus are going to be in deep trouble for this one, it’s really not the done thing to use military assets to force an overflying civilian airliner to land, just so you can haul a passenger you don’t like off the plane. If I were a Belarusian diplomat in Europe, I would be packing my bags this morning.
Boris has done to Labour what Blair did to the tories: parked his bus right on their lawn. He is sweeping up the northern former Labour vote. With their continued metropolitan luvvy wokeness, Labour are accelerating the trend. They are a million miles away from Boris Brexit Britain.
I suspect this year we will see a poll with Labour at 25%.
Sorry that this isn't comforting news. I don't like Boris either. Nor did I like Blair. But both are brilliant politicians.
I think the choice is between sanctions aimed at sending a message and crippling sanctions such as a complete trade embargo aimed at punishing and potentially overthrowing the regime …..
I am guessing it will be the former
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1396607004278407169?s=20
I think the question is can some one who is an obvious replacement, like Dishy Rishi, get through his time without being damaged by Boris fallout. At the moment, he manages to ride both horses, but there are difficult decisions ahead.
The Tories are better equipped in the replacement leader department. Sunak, Javid, Hunt, all could step in and pretty sure they would do a steady job, and probably be far better against a Starmer than Bullshitting Boris.
One possibility is that, with Starmer also struggling and the Lib Who nowhere, Boris does overstay his welcome - even if the polling and local election results hold up.
What both party leaders really need is an obvious challenger to keep them honest, it will be interesting to see who develops into that role in the next 12 months or so.
Quad erat demonstrandum. .. oh and I forgot Corbyn has brought to the surface the anti Jewish stance of many Labour people within the Party.
Its done really well in pissing off all the people it needs. Sure in London it's stacking up ethnic votes by the truckload but it's not going to win them an election.
Time for some research into why people will not vote Labour. I feel sure I am not too far from the answer.
This year's Indianapolis 500 is set to be the most-attended sporting event since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak as 135,000 fans will be allowed inside the Indianapolis Motor Speedway venue.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/motorsport/57224180
He's a brilliant, winning, politician and he won't be going anywhere for at least 5 years and quite possibly 10. He has a highly ambitious new young wife-to-be at his side and they ain't giving up the reins of power anytime soon.
He will win a thumping majority next time and quite possibly another the one after that.
Don't make the same mistake that I did over Tony Blair. I never liked him and I spent all the time waiting for his downfall. When it came it was a damp squib. Why don't you instead park your antipathy, take a step back and admire an utterly brilliant politician at work. Because that's what Boris is.
Labour's donut has become a ring donut. At its heart is now a hole - where the tasty red stuff should be.
It is staggeringly poor behavior (and a staggeringly misjudged tweet, but that's another story).
I would hope that there will be serious diplomatic retaliation.
The Guardian won't of course report this. It reminds me of that wonderful comment by John Sentamu: the ultimate white liberal's worst nightmare is telling a black person they're wrong
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11822873/labour-leader-keir-starmer-takes-a-knee-george-floyd/
It seems that it has, amongst both leavers and remainers, given former staunchly loyal voters the OK to leave their former home. I always knew it would have an effect on dislodging voters but the length of the political shenanigans following the vote to leave seems to have wonderfully concentrated minds on both sides of the divide as to whether their party of choice was likely to act in their own interest. I wonder if it has divided the electorate into camps of whether they believe that the politicians know best or not?
They might have done this or that slightly differently but no one quite remembers what.
Given that it will take an enquiry to determine how well or otherwise the government performed and its most recent act was a success, why would anyone now apart from its core vote support Labour.
That is not a good foundation for a cohesive world view or rounded policy position.
Great for short term fads and smug self satisfaction to tickle the self satisfied morally superior image that eminates to many of the red wall voters and swathes of striving working class people.
Even though 99% of us agree that racism is a bad thing, far fewer of us agree with ‘critical race theory’ teaching and other very specifically American ideas being exported elsewhere.
Had a text late last night, which I only read this morning, to the effect that Grandson 2's got his driving theory test today.Hope he passes, although AIUI, there's a long wait for the practical one.
WAS planning to go to the gym, but I’ve woken with a painful hip.
Poor old chap. Emphasis on the old!
On topic Labour picked a 'clean' leader to follow Corbyn, but an inexperienced politician. They'd have been far better with Milliband or even Jess Phillips.
Starmer asks questions in a courtroom fashion, expecting answers. Johnson is, as Mr CC says, a politician and doesn't give them, just plays to the gallery. Which, to be fair, he's very good at.
Against that, Johnson's Marmite; you either like/admire him or actively dislike him. At the moment he's getting away with it; one of these days he won't. But it won';t be like Blair, with a conscious, and painfully thought decision about Iraq; it'll be something he's done without thinking about it which turns out to be spectacularly bad.
It's been an unmitigated disaster for the political and cultural left. A wrecking ball. It's quite possible that we could have a lengthy Tory Hegemony - the comparison with the ruling party in Japan, which has enjoyed almost unbroken power since the late 1950s, is sometimes made at this point. Looking forward to the next couple of elections, it's far from clear that Labour and the Lib Dems can topple dominoes in the South faster than the Conservatives can in the Midlands and the North - and if Scotland falls off then they may never be able to do enough to assemble a Parliamentary majority.
The reality is that the anti-Tory vote may now be too small and too inefficiently distributed to unseat the Government, now and for many, many years to come. Voting to Leave the EU against the wishes of Labour's politicians and core membership, and voting for Farage's vehicles, both appear to have acted as gateway drugs for millions of vital Labour supporters to switch sides outright - and there appears to be no particular reason for them to go back again.
Hindsight wasn't required to see that kneeling was not a good look.
F1: interesting to consider Azerbaijan. Monaco, but with a massive straight. So won't be as bad for Mercedes. And may be right up Norris' street.
It was Realpolitik. Pragmatic.
When you're storming all over your opponent's best policies it's very effective.
Britain will become the Singapore of the West. If that floats your boat then enjoy the ride.
Exhibit A - Dominic Cummings.
Secondly one of Thailands Covid problems is refugees coming across the border from Myanmar.
And third, AIUI, it was always the Thai government's plan to start vaccinating about now.
But I agree with you about corruption being a problem.
Those that don't seem to be divided into Marmite haters but lovers of Bovril, Vegemite, Tofu and those who don't eat food at all, actually.
The clue was in the comment, 'It reminds me of ...'
Man alive. Is this what has happened to us? Even a comparison gets taken as literal?
Tory share solidly in low to mid 40s with an increase from the low 40s at the beginning of the month
Labour share in the low 30s down from the high 30s at the beginning of the month
Overall conclusion: Tory lead has widened from around 8-10 points to 10-12 points with this lead being an outlier
My guess is that the Tories have seen some of the negative froth go away plus a bit of a “winner’s bonus”. SKS has lost some prior supporters who have decided he’s not going to win so they don’t need to compromise their principles allowing them to vote Green or LibDem without guilt
You remind me of your hero, BJ; when questioned abuse the questioner!
However, I haven't actually seen any evidence of it.
It is also worth bearing in mind that Singapore is a city state, while the UK is not. Singapore is also at the nexus of the fastest growing economies on the planet, with their goods passing through some of the busiest docks in the world.
As a business guy (with very substantial investments in the UK), I would love it if the UK adopted Singapore's visa rules - they're simple, easy to navigate, no need for an immigration attorney. (The absolute opposite of the US's)
That’ld bankrupt Lukashenko far more effectively than any sanctions...
It could be my optimism bias, but some people seem trapped in a very wierd mindset (chicken little syndrome) seeing the worst possible outcomes in every circumstance. How do they climbdown?
https://twitter.com/cox_a_r/status/1396711153183690752?s=21
They won’t. They’ll just ignore they ever wrote it.
As much as I love to rag on Ryanair, no blame on the airline nor pilots here. They followed instructions and did everything right.
It's not that country will suddenly 'do something'; it's that Johnson will 'do something'.
Rather like the appallingly stupid remark about poor Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, which may well have condemned her to more time in prison.
(Note the 'may well', not 'did', please.)
But that does require two things:
1. That the attitude towards the EU remains the dominant feature of British politics
2. That the UK outperforms the EU
Now, I'm reasonably confident on 2 (but far from certain, because the reality is that 'events' don't always pan out as one expects). But I'd be far less certain about 1.
Times change remarkably quickly. In the mid-1980s, Labour was committed to leaving the EEC and to complete nuclear disbarment. Less than a decade later, it was the party of Blair and Mandelson.
The Liberals (and the Alliance) went from the LibLab pact and their leader on trial for conspiracy to murder, to electoral irrelevance, to polling a quarter of the votes in a General Election in about six years.
In Germany, the CDU has gone from utterly dominant 18 months ago, to polling on par with the Greens, and having lost 40% of their support.
In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, other than the Germans, can you name a single Western government that was re-elected? And can you really be sure we won't see another crisis of that magnitude in the next decade?
Now, that doesn't mean the Conservatives shouldn't massively odds on for 2024 (I'd make them a 65-70% shot). But I think assuming that things will continue as they are is a very risky proposition.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1396600256951898116?s=20
Northern Ireland? Fuck 'em
Fishermen? Fuck 'em
Farmers? Fuck 'em.
While the effect of this so far has been to boost his popularity among those who are not members of these groups, I am tempted to suggest that there is a limit to how far you can stretch this political strategy and still "win"
It's an interesting thought experiment to imagine what Brexiters would be saying if the UK had stayed in the EU, and it had done a trade deal with Australia on these terms. 'Brussels Bureaucrats Betray British Beef' is my guess.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3484d6b0-ba68-11eb-88a0-2b24633e3d76?shareToken=e911845d1ce608b43c8605a763331cae
Holding hands as red wall comes tumbling down.
The reality is Iran was using her as a pawn. She was not going to be released u til every ounce of value has been extracted. Boris’s comments were used as an excuse rather than influencing the outcome
On topic both the 1% and 18% polls do seem to be outliers but it is clear from the recent election results that the Conservatives are performing well and Labour not so
Starmer's very public spat with Rayner, follows his miscalculation on taking the knee, wallpaper gate, and now the cringe worthy sight of him crying on TV.
Add into the mix the increasing green vote, the loss of Scotland, and remember the conservatives had their best ever result for the Senedd, the outlook for Labour and Starmer are indeed bleak
If he loses Batley and Spen after parachuting in their ideal candidate then I think that could see him go
As far as the polls are concerned I think the realistic lead is probably between 8 - 10%
(a) When an ATC clearance has been obtained, no pilot in command may deviate from that clearance unless an amended clearance is obtained, an emergency exists, or the deviation is in response to a traffic alert and collision avoidance system resolution advisory. However, except in Class A airspace, a pilot may cancel an IFR flight plan if the operation is being conducted in VFR weather conditions. When a pilot is uncertain of an ATC clearance, that pilot shall immediately request clarification from ATC.
(b) Except in an emergency, no person may operate an aircraft contrary to an ATC instruction in an area in which air traffic control is exercised.
(c) Each pilot in command who, in an emergency, or in response to a traffic alert and collision avoidance system resolution advisory, deviates from an ATC clearance or instruction shall notify ATC of that deviation as soon as possible.
(d) Each pilot in command who (though not deviating from a rule of this subpart) is given priority by ATC in an emergency, shall submit a detailed report of that emergency within 48 hours to the manager of that ATC facility, if requested by ATC.
The political axis will then be dogma on climate change, globalism and enthusiastic Wokeness versus technological action on climate change, nation-state based international engagement and anti-Wokeness.
Europhiles would be calling such a trade deal a triumph.
Isle of Wight drinkers spent more than twice as much on average on Monday than normal, according to the data, knocking back around 190 pints per minute at their peak.
The biggest spenders in the area were 35-44 year old men, though Revolut said their customers tend to be slightly younger than the national average. Isle of Wight customers also splurged more per round than others across the country — spending £16.52 per transaction, compared to the average of £12.86 across Britain.
The biggest spender of the customers analysed was one punter who spent £168.37 in one purchase in a pub or restaurant, the data revealed.
She was staying put until they got their way. And she was deliberately chosen for ransom because the regime was banking on people like you saying "Oh, but she has a little girl..."
It has to be remembered that trade deals are the remainers ultimate nightmare, as each one makes rejoining more and more difficult and of course will have a substantial negative effect on EU countries as we import from outside
Ireland and France with beef but also Australian, NZ, and Canadian wine which will be at the EU's expense as well
This will be the last stand of those devotees of the EU like @Scott_xP and others
Expect an avalanche of tweets on the subject over the coming months
Where I can see the Greens doing well is (1) seats with a high percentage of university educated voters and low ethnic minority percentage. It’s no surprise the Greens picked up so many seats in Bristol and Sheffield, for example but not in places like Manchester and (2) as a protest vote against rural housing developments. In (1) they take votes from Labour and (2) from the Lib Dem
Eventually the wall of reality always gets in the way. In the case of Australia perhaps not - the trade deal that is So Good for Great Britain* has been put on a 15 year delay so that Boris gets the accolade for signing it and Someone Else gets the blame when it catastrophically kicks in.
Its tactical brilliance again from the Cult, but demonstrates in clear text that he doesn't give a rat fuck about what is left of this country*
*Northern Ireland? What's that?
A bit of (genuine) emotion might actually improve Starmer's image.