We're catching up with the USA on fully vaccinated. Around 5% behind.
There's definitely been a pretty big pick up in the second dose rate here and a small slowdown in the US as many areas approach demand satisfaction. I think we'll set the single day record this week for total numbers and possibly even the weekly record this week and then again next week as the government tries to get through as many second doses in groups 1-9 as possible before 7th of June.
I was able to bring my second jab forward by 21 days. I realise that epidemiologically it's better for me to wait but as I had to change the appt anyway (due to a clash with my son's school) I thought I might as well get it out of the way. Will still be eight weeks or so between jabs.
Why are the media leading with this "threats against her", when the police is its nonsense and a close friends say no she was at a party and was gang fight.
Hope she recovers and the shooter is caught but the media reporting is atrocious.
The police she wanted to defund should have protected her better....?
Some people suggested that having Salman Rushdie closely protected by the Metropolitan Police (who, as a good lefty, he hated) was a subtle knife twist by Maggie.
Hope that’s just bad reporting, and government aren’t going to be so silly as to mandate replacement of working equipment?
MPs all voted for specious motions mandating targets, but now the rubber hits the road and there is no credible plan beyond spending an absolute fortune we don't have whilst waffling about 'green jobs'.
I want to return to the non-story of the Daylesford Organic food deliveries, which were apparently provided “at cost”, but for which Johnson claims he paid personally.
The bill amounts to nearly £800 *per week* for a family of 2.5, and Daylesford does not do nappies and baby food.
How is that even possible? Full price Daylesford is expensive, but not THAT expensive, and remember this was “at cost”.
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
I think we’ve forgotten what it’s like to have a PM who’s actually quite popular. May was for a bit, but then.... Cameron was never really massively liked. Brown was respected, then... You have to go back to Blair and before him, very early Major.
Major is the one that should give the left hope. He was liked to start with, but once he lost control of events it all fell away. The trouble is that with a majority of 80, you don’t have to lose control of events.
I think Brown was such a disappointment. All those (myself included) who thought Blair was dreadful at least hoped Brown would be the sort of Labour leader we could get behind but he was not. The Gillian Duffy moment sealed it for many people.
Brown was a great example of a strong Cabinet Minister who is completely unsuited to being PM. Very few people have it in them, but all politicians think they do.
I have Brown and May down in the same category as people who basically use being dull and serious as evidence of their competance. People have a strange habit of assuming the world is fair, so kids must be either clever or sporty, and politicians are either dull and competant or exciting but incompetant.
In the real world sport kids tend to be brighter than average, and Brown & May were both incompetant for the job they aspired to.
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
So what you're saying is he's winning people around faster than he's disappointing them?
One thing I think Boris is good at, better than most politicians, is ruthlessly determining who to disappoint.
With the Brexit negotiations for instance May hitched her entire negotiations to Northern Ireland, despite the fact that there are precisely zero Tory NI MPs and only one NI MP who backed her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
On the other hand Boris ruthlessly got what he wanted for Great Britain and then dealt with NI almost as an afterthought to be resolved afterwards. He then has zero NI MPs instead of one backing him (plus Sylvia Hermon is retired now), but risked zero Tory MPs - and gained MPs across GB as a result.
People who dislike Boris bang on about "but what about the Irish Sea border" but the relevant fact with the border is that there are hundreds of Tory seats and Tory target seats in the bit that Boris has dealt with properly, and there are zero Tory seats and zero Tory target seats on the other side of the "border".
Just had to go and pick up a specimen bottle for my mother at our GP surgery. Totally empty and deserted. No one in the patient car park (plenty of cars in the staff car park) not a single person in the waiting area other than two receptionists.
They have more staff than patients lol!
Yet cinemas, restaurants and pubs are all open. Absolutely crazy!
Some surgeries are operating at 100% as if in normal times, others are not taking appointments or phone calls. It really is a lottery if you need to see a GP..
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
So what you're saying is he's winning people around faster than he's disappointing them?
One thing I think Boris is good at, better than most politicians, is ruthlessly determining who to disappoint.
With the Brexit negotiations for instance May hitched her entire negotiations to Northern Ireland, despite the fact that there are precisely zero Tory NI MPs and only one NI MP who backed her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
On the other hand Boris ruthlessly got what he wanted for Great Britain and then dealt with NI almost as an afterthought to be resolved afterwards. He then has zero NI MPs instead of one backing him (plus Sylvia Hermon is retired now), but risked zero Tory MPs - and gained MPs across GB as a result.
People who dislike Boris bang on about "but what about the Irish Sea border" but the relevant fact with the border is that there are hundreds of Tory seats and Tory target seats in the bit that Boris has dealt with properly, and there are zero Tory seats and zero Tory target seats on the other side of the "border".
Fine but he would need to ensure he wins another Tory majority again in 2024 as a result to stay in power.
If he loses his majority the DUP would be unlikely to back the Tories again as they backed May in 2017 unless he removed the Irish Sea border (the same would apply if the UUP win any MPs) and all the other minor parties would back Starmer as PM over Boris
Here's the new legal regulation introduced by SNP ministers stopping Scots from traveling to certain parts of England - Bedford, Blackburn with Darwen, and Bolton.
I don't think this has happened until now in pandemic (someone will tell me if not..)
Of course the writ of Scots law only runs in Scotland - so all they can make illegal is leaving Scotland with the purpose of travelling to these places…
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
He’s set the bar extremely low in Scotland, when does the strategic genius become more popular there? You’d think since Scotland has a goodly portion of the UK’s Unionists, fishermen and farmers that BJ as minister for the Union might be concerned about fucking all three groups, but no..
I want to return to the non-story of the Daylesford Organic food deliveries, which were apparently provided “at cost”, but for which Johnson claims he paid personally.
The bill amounts to nearly £800 *per week* for a family of 2.5, and Daylesford does not do nappies and baby food.
How is that even possible? Full price Daylesford is expensive, but not THAT expensive, and remember this was “at cost”.
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
So what you're saying is he's winning people around faster than he's disappointing them?
One thing I think Boris is good at, better than most politicians, is ruthlessly determining who to disappoint.
With the Brexit negotiations for instance May hitched her entire negotiations to Northern Ireland, despite the fact that there are precisely zero Tory NI MPs and only one NI MP who backed her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
On the other hand Boris ruthlessly got what he wanted for Great Britain and then dealt with NI almost as an afterthought to be resolved afterwards. He then has zero NI MPs instead of one backing him (plus Sylvia Hermon is retired now), but risked zero Tory MPs - and gained MPs across GB as a result.
People who dislike Boris bang on about "but what about the Irish Sea border" but the relevant fact with the border is that there are hundreds of Tory seats and Tory target seats in the bit that Boris has dealt with properly, and there are zero Tory seats and zero Tory target seats on the other side of the "border".
Fine but he would need to ensure he wins another Tory majority again in 2024 as a result to stay in power.
If he loses his majority the DUP would be unlikely to back the Tories again as they backed May in 2017 unless he removed the Irish Sea border (the same would apply if the UUP win any MPs) and all the other minor parties would back Starmer as PM over Boris
The DUP didn't back May 2017-2019 though. Which is why she couldn't get her agenda through.
As I said the only Northern Ireland MP to back her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
Winning a majority of the MPs is a much better way of governing than failing to win a majority, but keeping power by relying upon MPs of other parties who let you sit in Downing Street but not pass any contentious bills as they're voting with the opposition on them.
The 1% leads were very obviously - as some of us pointed out at the time - a temporary suppressive effect due to the daily saturation coverage in the media treating Boris as a serial killer for getting some wallpaper. Then the coverage eased off in the days before the election, the fundamentals reasserted themselves, and it was the Tories winning Hartlepool by almost 7000 votes and taking hundreds of council seats, while Starmer was left with the worst local election results for a new LOTO in 40 years and his leadership imploding.
The exact same thing happened a few days before the GE with Phonegate - a firestorm over some other petty bullshit, namely Boris refusing to look at a phone and then putting it in his pocket. The result was that the final YouGov MRP tanked to show a majority of only 28, causing much glee to those who imagined they'd managed to get Boris at last. A few days later, the coverage was forgotten, the fundamentals reasserted themselves, and Boris won an 80-seat majority and the highest share of the vote in 40 years.
It's almost as if a pattern is starting to emerge, but what could it possibly be...
All good points but let's not forget that you are comfortable with a lying PM. Others not so much.
Ah, but the 'lying' PM just achieved the highest polling lead - outlier or not - for any government that has been in power for this long a period in living memory. Even @ydoethur - to whom I'm happy to defer on modern history - could produce only a 17-point lead to match it: John Major, a year before he won the largest number of votes in British electoral history. Any guesses for who holds the current number 2 record?
Clearly enough people have no absolutist moral attachment to Truth as if it were a Platonic Form, but take people and politicians as they find them, and simply like what they like...
Don't disagree either. What a shame though. Plus there's lying, there's failure to adhere to a political promise, and then there's being a completely immoral lying solipsistic twat and rubbing the fans', your faces in it.
If all this is true about Boris then Labour in particular have the perfect opportunity to cleanse the stables with their: Honesty, Better Policies, Truth, Consistency, Competence, Top Marks for Transparency, A Front Bench of Attlees and Roy Jenkinses, A Scheme For Dealing with Deficit and Paying Off the Debt.
What can Diane Abbott, Richard Burgon and Laura Pidcock be waiting for? Why on earth are they not already at 60% in the polls?
In my view anyone who has the UK's interest at heart will support Starmer, and not necessarily because he's that good.
I thought the same about Hillary Clinton. Nothing about Trump's presidency changed my mind.
A genuinely difficult issue. all sorts of questions. Is Boris as dangerous as you imply. Is he properly comparable to Trump. Is he as dangerous as the Labour left that so nearly won on 2017. Is he as dangerous as the threat on re running the Brexit referendum, a view held by SKS among others.
IMHO no. Or not yet.
In particular on the subject of political misleading, this happens in different registers, some attracting more attention than others.
For me the greatest domestic political inexactitude of recent years has been the Remainery trope, pedalled by a highly respected establishment, that the EU is not accompanied by the trappings and baggage of an emerging state when this is obviously and factually untrue.
Compared with this the twistings and turnings of the current Tory chiefs is trivial and a price sadly worth paying and essential.
I wouldn't say Johnson is as bad as Trump. That doesn't necessarily change the equation however. Different if Corbyn is the alternative.
On the one hand you have a prime minister who is profoundly dishonest and has no respect for the institutions of the state or democracy. On the other you have a leader of the opposition who is honest, at least within normal politician parameters, is conscientious, and has a track record of running an important organisation more competently than his two successors, at least.
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
He’s set the bar extremely low in Scotland, when does the strategic genius become more popular there? You’d think since Scotland has a goodly portion of the UK’s Unionists, fishermen and farmers that BJ as minister for the Union might be concerned about fucking all three groups, but no..
Maybe he's just determined that you're just not that important and ensuring he keeps ~50% of the English vote is more important than going beyond ~24% of the Scottish vote?
Hope that’s just bad reporting, and government aren’t going to be so silly as to mandate replacement of working equipment?
Sounds like bad reporting/summarising:
“The Business department wants to make it mandatory for anyone replacing a conventional gas boiler or doing significant renovations to go green”.
I have no issue with banning the sale of new inefficient models. I also have no issue with making someone who is spending tens of thousands on an extension chuck in another grand as a planning condition.
It doesn't matter what you have an issue with, the party for the protection of gas boilers and petrol cars does not exist.
And so you and the rest of us are getting whatever Carrie & Co say.
Don’t understand your point. You’re free to set up such a party if you like, and see how many votes you can get.
My point is that this is a matter on which voters have no agency or leverage. And so your 'issues' can be safely ignored. You may as well not bother expressing them.
We live in a democracy. Vote for someone who agrees with you. If no one is standing, stand yourself.
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
He’s set the bar extremely low in Scotland, when does the strategic genius become more popular there? You’d think since Scotland has a goodly portion of the UK’s Unionists, fishermen and farmers that BJ as minister for the Union might be concerned about fucking all three groups, but no..
Maybe he's just determined that you're just not that important and ensuring he keeps ~50% of the English vote is more important than going beyond ~24% of the Scottish vote?
If so, its working.
You mean he’s a liar who just spouts stuff about the Union and the UK for effect? Fair enough, we’re on the same page there then.
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
So what you're saying is he's winning people around faster than he's disappointing them?
One thing I think Boris is good at, better than most politicians, is ruthlessly determining who to disappoint.
With the Brexit negotiations for instance May hitched her entire negotiations to Northern Ireland, despite the fact that there are precisely zero Tory NI MPs and only one NI MP who backed her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
On the other hand Boris ruthlessly got what he wanted for Great Britain and then dealt with NI almost as an afterthought to be resolved afterwards. He then has zero NI MPs instead of one backing him (plus Sylvia Hermon is retired now), but risked zero Tory MPs - and gained MPs across GB as a result.
People who dislike Boris bang on about "but what about the Irish Sea border" but the relevant fact with the border is that there are hundreds of Tory seats and Tory target seats in the bit that Boris has dealt with properly, and there are zero Tory seats and zero Tory target seats on the other side of the "border".
Fine but he would need to ensure he wins another Tory majority again in 2024 as a result to stay in power.
If he loses his majority the DUP would be unlikely to back the Tories again as they backed May in 2017 unless he removed the Irish Sea border (the same would apply if the UUP win any MPs) and all the other minor parties would back Starmer as PM over Boris
The DUP didn't back May 2017-2019 though. Which is why she couldn't get her agenda through.
As I said the only Northern Ireland MP to back her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
Winning a majority of the MPs is a much better way of governing than failing to win a majority, but keeping power by relying upon MPs of other parties who let you sit in Downing Street but not pass any contentious bills as they're voting with the opposition on them.
They kept May in power, they just did not back her on the Withdrawal Agreement.
If the Tories win a majority in 2024 again then clearly Boris will stay in power with the status quo FTA for GB with the EU. If there is a hung parliament however, even with the Tories winning most seats, I would expect Starmer to become PM with SNP and LD support and he would pursue closer regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union for the whole UK, which would largely remove the Irish Sea border and probably be enough for the DUP and UUP not to oppose a Starmer premiership (Poots has already called for closer UK alignment with EU agricultural rules since becoming DUP leader).
Ironically a Starmer premiership would probably now see us return to something like the proposed May deal with the EU again
@Theuniondivvie given you're the Scottish expert, since we can presumably all agree that Douglas Ross is not as good a SCon leader as Ruth Davidson, and if Boris is in your opinion so seriously disappointing Scottish voters . . .
How come in the Scottish election the SCon Constituency vote fell by only 0.1%? How come in the Scottish election the SCon Regional vote increased by 0.6%?
Doesn't seem like Boris is doing too badly in Scotland from the results, all things considered?
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
If that's the case then why has approval of Boris and the Tory share been remarkably consistent? The Tories have long polled consistently within Margin of Error of 42% and the gross approval ratings for Boris have been remarkably flat around there too.
Keir on the other hand has seen his ratings drop off - and "don't knows" become "disapproves".
Because most people aren't fishermen, unionists or farmers.
Note that this feature isn't unique to Boris. All PMs - and indeed LOTOs - start as blank canvasses onto which people project their own hopes; all PMs and LOTOs gradually disappoint people over time. The trick is to disappoint people at a slower rate than your counterpart in the opposing party. At the moment, Kier appears to be disappointing people faster than Boris. This may simply reflect that he was the blankest of blank canvasses to start with and there was a lot of projection of individual hopes - with Boris people already knew him pretty well by the time he arrived.
Indeed that's the theory, and listen to people here and you'd think Boris would be worse than normal PMs for that, but lets compare Boris's final 2019 approval ratings just before he won an 80 seat majority versus today's midterm approval ratings.
2019 YouGov 41% 2021 YouGov 48% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 7%
2019 Opinium 33% 2021 Opinium 43% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 10%
2019 Ipsos MORI 36% 2021 Ipsos MORI 44% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 8%
2019 Panelbase 36% 2021 Panelbase 41% Fall in Boris's approval rating from disappointing people: Minus 5%
Rather consistent picture. If he's falling, he's falling upwards.
Brilliant. Boris has turned out to be a massive undisappointment...
Huh, fair enough. How to explain that? Back to the original theory: he's disappointing people - like unionists, fishermen and farmers BUT in Nov 2019 he had a big reservoir of people who were either sceptical or quite hostile to him, and now he's got a bit of governing under his belt and been shown to be nothing like as bad as his detractors forecast, some of the disapproval has faded away - indeed more of the disapproval has faded away than new disapproval has been accrued.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
He’s set the bar extremely low in Scotland, when does the strategic genius become more popular there? You’d think since Scotland has a goodly portion of the UK’s Unionists, fishermen and farmers that BJ as minister for the Union might be concerned about fucking all three groups, but no..
Maybe he's just determined that you're just not that important and ensuring he keeps ~50% of the English vote is more important than going beyond ~24% of the Scottish vote?
If so, its working.
You mean he’s a liar who just spouts stuff about the Union and the UK for effect? Fair enough, we’re on the same page there then.
Absolutely agreed. He'll put practicalities before "the Union" and quite right too. 👍
@Theuniondivvie given you're the Scottish expert, since we can presumably all agree that Douglas Ross is not as good a SCon leader as Ruth Davidson, and if Boris is in your opinion so seriously disappointing Scottish voters . . .
How come in the Scottish election the SCon Constituency vote fell by only 0.1%? How come in the Scottish election the SCon Regional vote increased by 0.6%?
Doesn't seem like Boris is doing too badly in Scotland from the results, all things considered?
Doing not too badly in Scotland by making absolutely sure he’s not in Scotland during elections?
Excellent HYUFD-esque use of fractions of percentage points btw.
I want to return to the non-story of the Daylesford Organic food deliveries, which were apparently provided “at cost”, but for which Johnson claims he paid personally.
The bill amounts to nearly £800 *per week* for a family of 2.5, and Daylesford does not do nappies and baby food.
How is that even possible? Full price Daylesford is expensive, but not THAT expensive, and remember this was “at cost”.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
Flightradar24 @flightradar24 We haven't seen any official airline announcements but it looks like some airlines are avoiding Belarus airspace.
On the other hand, RyanAir are still taking the cheapest route possible...
Carl Bildt @carlbildt It’s slightly insane, but @RyanairPress is flying through Belarus airspace as we speak. What are they thinking? There are also question marks on how they handled yesterday.
It wouldn't surprise me if Ryanair did change this soon, though. They'll need different refuelling arrangements, for example, which can't always be done in a couple of days.
MOL on the news saying he's waiting for guidance from the EU/NATO etc.
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
@Theuniondivvie given you're the Scottish expert, since we can presumably all agree that Douglas Ross is not as good a SCon leader as Ruth Davidson, and if Boris is in your opinion so seriously disappointing Scottish voters . . .
How come in the Scottish election the SCon Constituency vote fell by only 0.1%? How come in the Scottish election the SCon Regional vote increased by 0.6%?
Doesn't seem like Boris is doing too badly in Scotland from the results, all things considered?
Doing not too badly in Scotland by making absolutely sure he’s not in Scotland during elections?
Excellent HYUFD-esque use of fractions of percentage points btw.
Also that belies the question of how much the Scots were already disappointed with him, which was already a big thing years back: if his rating was already down there with the wreck of the Campania it could hardly go down much.
Plus it's not exactly an improvement comparable with his performance south of Sark and Lamberton.
@Theuniondivvie given you're the Scottish expert, since we can presumably all agree that Douglas Ross is not as good a SCon leader as Ruth Davidson, and if Boris is in your opinion so seriously disappointing Scottish voters . . .
How come in the Scottish election the SCon Constituency vote fell by only 0.1%? How come in the Scottish election the SCon Regional vote increased by 0.6%?
Doesn't seem like Boris is doing too badly in Scotland from the results, all things considered?
Doing not too badly in Scotland by making absolutely sure he’s not in Scotland during elections?
Excellent HYUFD-esque use of fractions of percentage points btw.
If not going to Scotland means that the Tories win more votes, then yes not going to Scotland seems the right thing to do. No issue there.
I didn't "use fractions of percentage points" - those are the actual results and that's how actual results instead of opinion polls get reported. 2021 Constituency 21.9% (down 0.1%) 2021 Regional 23.5% (up 0.6%)
Do you dispute those results. If Boris had seriously so disappointed "fishermen, farmers and Unionists" and if as you've been saying for a long time Douglas Ross is so awful, then presumably you'd have expected the SCons to have fallen by more than 0.1% in the Constituency vote?
Or to have fallen instead of rising in the Regional vote?
Hope that’s just bad reporting, and government aren’t going to be so silly as to mandate replacement of working equipment?
Sounds like bad reporting/summarising:
“The Business department wants to make it mandatory for anyone replacing a conventional gas boiler or doing significant renovations to go green”.
I have no issue with banning the sale of new inefficient models. I also have no issue with making someone who is spending tens of thousands on an extension chuck in another grand as a planning condition.
So if your boiler packs up you're stuffed ? People don't tend to change boilers on a whim.
If your boiler packs in, you have to buy a new boiler anyway. If all of the new boilers available are hydrogen-ready, then you are future-proofed, so happy days.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
We're catching up with the USA on fully vaccinated. Around 5% behind.
There's definitely been a pretty big pick up in the second dose rate here and a small slowdown in the US as many areas approach demand satisfaction. I think we'll set the single day record this week for total numbers and possibly even the weekly record this week and then again next week as the government tries to get through as many second doses in groups 1-9 as possible before 7th of June.
I was able to bring my second jab forward by 21 days. I realise that epidemiologically it's better for me to wait but as I had to change the appt anyway (due to a clash with my son's school) I thought I might as well get it out of the way. Will still be eight weeks or so between jabs.
Today is Jab 1 + 9 weeks for me. Still no message from Bozo inviting me to bring my second appointment forward.
But when we are tiptoeing out of the worst health crisis in living memory, where tens of thousands have died, when we’ve been locked up for over a year, and the weather is shit, why does he think it’s a good idea to go on tv and cry about family bereavements? People want cheering up, a ray of sunshine, optimism. He already has the image of an earnest but boring, dull suit, why make it worse by associating with misery? The relaunch should have been sunny and bright
Yes, a judgment call on whether to do the programme at all (obviously he can't control what he's asked about: "Never mind about that stuff, ;let's look on the bright side!" wouldn't be good), and I take your point. It's risky to refuse a big interview, especially when you're in a hole, though, and I did think that calling it "cringeworthy" was in partisan bad taste. But I agree he's seriously in need of some snappy upbeat messages to fit in on every occasion.
So with vaccinations going full steam ahead I thought, hoped that in 2021 matters would quieten down a bit.
Instead we have:-
1. State sponsored hijacking of a plane by one of Putin's friends and the likely murder of a journalist critical of a government. 2. The Middle East in flames again with the extremists in Israel/Palestine gaining more power. 3. Revolting anti-semitism and threats of rape on the streets of our cities. 4. Gang violence in Primrose Hill. 5. The sort of persistent torrential rain which even Noah would have complained about. 6. The disappearance of summer.
The real reason that Thailand haven't vaccinated is corruption (no surprise to those of us on the inside). For months there has been a massive squabble about who is getting the vaccine contract because they know it is worth mega $$$.
The Guardian won't of course report this. It reminds me of that wonderful comment by John Sentamu: the ultimate white liberal's worst nightmare is telling a black person they're wrong
Hello. Back again. Start the week with a trip to the gym!
AIUI June 1st was always the plan. At least, according tom my family there. Been blown a bit off course by a recent spike, due to (see earlier) refugees from Myanmar. I haven't, I must confess, tried to see what the situation is there. Always assuming anyone has anywhere near accurate figures.
Spoke to a friend in Bangkok at the weekend. Pretty bad
Cases and deaths are ticking along, nothing explosive, but enough to hinder plans to reopen. And tourism has been demolished
Meanwhile the vaccine roll-out is a mess, because corruption
We're catching up with the USA on fully vaccinated. Around 5% behind.
There's definitely been a pretty big pick up in the second dose rate here and a small slowdown in the US as many areas approach demand satisfaction. I think we'll set the single day record this week for total numbers and possibly even the weekly record this week and then again next week as the government tries to get through as many second doses in groups 1-9 as possible before 7th of June.
I was able to bring my second jab forward by 21 days. I realise that epidemiologically it's better for me to wait but as I had to change the appt anyway (due to a clash with my son's school) I thought I might as well get it out of the way. Will still be eight weeks or so between jabs.
Today is Jab 1 + 9 weeks for me. Still no message from Bozo inviting me to bring my second appointment forward.
I didn't get a message, I had to change my original appointment anyway – and when I did so was offered a slot much sooner. Try it!
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
What are the current green alternatives to a gas boiler which heats radiators and water for a terraced house in London, say?
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
Yes I never voted for TB. And I agree there's no incentive for honest politicians.
I think it's a shame. Others celebrate it as it's "their" liar currently in power.
They say that better late than never, but in a fast-moving crisis 14 months late is testing the limits of that.
Properly implemented last summer (when it became obvious that it was needed), it could have saved many thousands of lives. And a great deal of economic pain.
So with vaccinations going full steam ahead I thought, hoped that in 2021 matters would quieten down a bit.
Instead we have:-
1. State sponsored hijacking of a plane by one of Putin's friends and the likely murder of a journalist critical of a government. 2. The Middle East in flames again with the extremists in Israel/Palestine gaining more power. 3. Revolting anti-semitism and threats of rape on the streets of our cities. 4. Gang violence in Primrose Hill. 5. The sort of persistent torrential rain which even Noah would have complained about. 6. The disappearance of summer.
What are people who don't have much money supposed to do?
ASHPs and Green Energy tend to get funding packages eg RHI.
If people can afford to buy a house, pay stamp duty, find a deposit, spend a couple of thousand a year on dogs etc then for the vast majority that is a bit of a red herring.
The key is to do the other stuff. DIY house improvement does not have to be expensive.
The more interesting thing is the second para, which claims that 1/3 of C02 emissions come from 'heating systems'. All of our other C02 emissions have come down so far now that that is about right. Suprised me as I had not run the numbers recently.
@Theuniondivvie given you're the Scottish expert, since we can presumably all agree that Douglas Ross is not as good a SCon leader as Ruth Davidson, and if Boris is in your opinion so seriously disappointing Scottish voters . . .
How come in the Scottish election the SCon Constituency vote fell by only 0.1%? How come in the Scottish election the SCon Regional vote increased by 0.6%?
Doesn't seem like Boris is doing too badly in Scotland from the results, all things considered?
The Conservatives represent a solid 22% of the Scottish electorate that has hardly changed in recent elections. This is on a platform of robust unionism that fits in with Johnson's rhetoric, although they usually try not to be very much associated with him.
Strange lack of attention for what I believe is the first British world champion in the 4 belt era, perhaps he was waving the wrong flag after the match. A world title fight on the castle esplanade would be cool tho’.
Strange lack of attention for what I believe is the first British world champion in the 4 belt era, perhaps he was waving the wrong flag after the match. A world title fight on the castle esplanade would be cool tho’.
Was a good fight. I think he needed the knockdowns not only for the points, obvs, but they do say you need them to win on US soil.
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
My brother-in-law's new build (in Ireland) is very comfortably warm with a heat pump alone. I reckon you could mandate all new builds to be built to a standard that included heat pumps for heating. The technology is there.
For existing houses, not so much, but that's why people are developing things like the microwave boiler. Give people a problem to fix and they will come up with multiple solutions. Exciting times.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
After thinking about it, I don't consider Blair a bigger liar than Johnson. I accept WMD, and going to war in Iraq was a dreadful and incredibly foolish thing to do, it seems now. Incidentally, thinking about that, I wonder what Saddam would have done if the US hadn't attacked. I suspect life for many (NOT all) Iraqis would be better than it is now.
But Johnson lies routinely and persistently. And always has done.
Strange lack of attention for what I believe is the first British world champion in the 4 belt era, perhaps he was waving the wrong flag after the match. A world title fight on the castle esplanade would be cool tho’.
More like few care about boxing but you would have to see it in the most possible negative light...
So with vaccinations going full steam ahead I thought, hoped that in 2021 matters would quieten down a bit.
Instead we have:-
1. State sponsored hijacking of a plane by one of Putin's friends and the likely murder of a journalist critical of a government. 2. The Middle East in flames again with the extremists in Israel/Palestine gaining more power. 3. Revolting anti-semitism and threats of rape on the streets of our cities. 4. Gang violence in Primrose Hill. 5. The sort of persistent torrential rain which even Noah would have complained about. 6. The disappearance of summer.
And that's just in the last week or so.
Have I missed anything?
The evil Starmer crying?
Anyway next year is looking up. Boris and Carrie's state nuptuals. I hope it's televised, I love a wedding.
We're catching up with the USA on fully vaccinated. Around 5% behind.
There's definitely been a pretty big pick up in the second dose rate here and a small slowdown in the US as many areas approach demand satisfaction. I think we'll set the single day record this week for total numbers and possibly even the weekly record this week and then again next week as the government tries to get through as many second doses in groups 1-9 as possible before 7th of June.
I was able to bring my second jab forward by 21 days. I realise that epidemiologically it's better for me to wait but as I had to change the appt anyway (due to a clash with my son's school) I thought I might as well get it out of the way. Will still be eight weeks or so between jabs.
Today is Jab 1 + 9 weeks for me. Still no message from Bozo inviting me to bring my second appointment forward.
I didn't get a message, I had to change my original appointment anyway – and when I did so was offered a slot much sooner. Try it!
Thank you. I just went online and booked my second dose for 26 June which will be 8 weeks to the day since my first dose. 💪💉
We're catching up with the USA on fully vaccinated. Around 5% behind.
There's definitely been a pretty big pick up in the second dose rate here and a small slowdown in the US as many areas approach demand satisfaction. I think we'll set the single day record this week for total numbers and possibly even the weekly record this week and then again next week as the government tries to get through as many second doses in groups 1-9 as possible before 7th of June.
I was able to bring my second jab forward by 21 days. I realise that epidemiologically it's better for me to wait but as I had to change the appt anyway (due to a clash with my son's school) I thought I might as well get it out of the way. Will still be eight weeks or so between jabs.
Today is Jab 1 + 9 weeks for me. Still no message from Bozo inviting me to bring my second appointment forward.
I got mine at 9 weeks on Friday. Seek out your local walk in and pick a quiet time. Worked for me. They will take you.
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
My brother-in-law's new build (in Ireland) is very comfortably warm with a heat pump alone. I reckon you could mandate all new builds to be built to a standard that included heat pumps for heating. The technology is there.
For existing houses, not so much, but that's why people are developing things like the microwave boiler. Give people a problem to fix and they will come up with multiple solutions. Exciting times.
The real reason that Thailand haven't vaccinated is corruption (no surprise to those of us on the inside). For months there has been a massive squabble about who is getting the vaccine contract because they know it is worth mega $$$.
The Guardian won't of course report this. It reminds me of that wonderful comment by John Sentamu: the ultimate white liberal's worst nightmare is telling a black person they're wrong
Hello. Back again. Start the week with a trip to the gym!
AIUI June 1st was always the plan. At least, according tom my family there. Been blown a bit off course by a recent spike, due to (see earlier) refugees from Myanmar. I haven't, I must confess, tried to see what the situation is there. Always assuming anyone has anywhere near accurate figures.
Spoke to a friend in Bangkok at the weekend. Pretty bad
Cases and deaths are ticking along, nothing explosive, but enough to hinder plans to reopen. And tourism has been demolished
Meanwhile the vaccine roll-out is a mess, because corruption
Yep, granddaughter's school ..... they all go to the same one...... isn't expected to re-open before Mid August, which is when the term should re-start.
As you say, tourism is demolished. Even internal tourism, which wasn't doing too badly.
Will be speaking to son at the weekend, and might well find out more.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
After thinking about it, I don't consider Blair a bigger liar than Johnson. I accept WMD, and going to war in Iraq was a dreadful and incredibly foolish thing to do, it seems now. Incidentally, thinking about that, I wonder what Saddam would have done if the US hadn't attacked. I suspect life for many (NOT all) Iraqis would be better than it is now.
But Johnson lies routinely and persistently. And always has done.
Sadly, whilst enough people are being paid 80% to sit on their arses all day, they'll keep supporting him. Until they themselves are affected by his lies and they realise this, he will still be their blue eyed boy!
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
Yes I never voted for TB. And I agree there's no incentive for honest politicians.
I think it's a shame. Others celebrate it as it's "their" liar currently in power.
It is a sad state of affairs that there are a significant number of people that think having a demonstrably dishonest person for their leader is OK providing they win elections. I loathed Blair, but I think he was honest compared to Johnson. Blair was a dissembler and a purveyor of half truths, which is not uncommon among politicians. Personally I think it unnecessary in any walk of life. Johnson has gulled some people (indeed quite a lot) into believing lying is perfectly acceptable, because that is the way he has always lived his life, and to him it is as normal as cleaning his teeth. The country will eventually pay a price for it, if it hasn't already.
We're catching up with the USA on fully vaccinated. Around 5% behind.
There's definitely been a pretty big pick up in the second dose rate here and a small slowdown in the US as many areas approach demand satisfaction. I think we'll set the single day record this week for total numbers and possibly even the weekly record this week and then again next week as the government tries to get through as many second doses in groups 1-9 as possible before 7th of June.
I was able to bring my second jab forward by 21 days. I realise that epidemiologically it's better for me to wait but as I had to change the appt anyway (due to a clash with my son's school) I thought I might as well get it out of the way. Will still be eight weeks or so between jabs.
Today is Jab 1 + 9 weeks for me. Still no message from Bozo inviting me to bring my second appointment forward.
I didn't get a message, I had to change my original appointment anyway – and when I did so was offered a slot much sooner. Try it!
Thank you. I just went online and booked my second dose for 26 June which will be 8 weeks to the day since my first dose. 💪💉
Strange lack of attention for what I believe is the first British world champion in the 4 belt era, perhaps he was waving the wrong flag after the match. A world title fight on the castle esplanade would be cool tho’.
Was a good fight. I think he needed the knockdowns not only for the points, obvs, but they do say you need them to win on US soil.
You always get added value on the rarish occasions of a Scottish sporting win.
Oh, and on boilers - a boiler that only works on natural gas won't be much use when there is hydrogen coming out of the pipe.
How/when exactly will we switch over from natural gas to hydrogen - or is it an entirely new network of pipes ? I don't have an issue with burning hydrogen to warm my house but forsee difficulties in a national switchover.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
BluestBlue keeps saying the same thing no matter how many times you, me or others tell him/her that he is completely missing the point being made. This is not about electoral success. This is a moral issue. And yes we all know that politicians lie and mislead, but it is the degree and ease with which he does it.
I give you the example of Michael Howard in that infamous Paxman interview. Michael Howard tried to mislead by avoiding answering the question but would not outright lie. He got crucified for doing so. He could easily have lied and got away with it.
Oh, and on boilers - a boiler that only works on natural gas won't be much use when there is hydrogen coming out of the pipe.
How/when exactly will we switch over from natural gas to hydrogen - or is it an entirely new network of pipes ? I don't have an issue with burning hydrogen to warm my house but forsee difficulties in a national switchover.
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
Agreed. We had a holiday in a lovely cottage by the sea in Northumberland last month. Only problem was that the heating was by heat pump which never was able to produce a comfortable warmth. This wan't helped by the overnight temperstures dropping to zero.
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
My brother-in-law's new build (in Ireland) is very comfortably warm with a heat pump alone. I reckon you could mandate all new builds to be built to a standard that included heat pumps for heating. The technology is there.
For existing houses, not so much, but that's why people are developing things like the microwave boiler. Give people a problem to fix and they will come up with multiple solutions. Exciting times.
I'm still to be convinced about heat pumps as well. My terraced house doesn't have enough room for the installation. I would think a governemtn would find it difficult to mandate everyone to tear out gas boilers already in situe.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
BluestBlue keeps saying the same thing no matter how many times you, me or others tell him/her that he is completely missing the point being made. This is not about electoral success. This is a moral issue. And yes we all know that politicians lie and mislead, but it is the degree and ease with which he does it.
I give you the example of Michael Howard in that infamous Paxman interview. Michael Howard tried to mislead by avoiding answering the question but would not outright lie. He got crucified for doing so. He could easily have lied and got away with it.
What would Boris have done?
Hidden in a fridge.
Actually, I don’t think that’s your best example. Boris vs. Paxman was a Newsnight conference season highlight for years. Boris always did well.
Oh, and on boilers - a boiler that only works on natural gas won't be much use when there is hydrogen coming out of the pipe.
How/when exactly will we switch over from natural gas to hydrogen - or is it an entirely new network of pipes ? I don't have an issue with burning hydrogen to warm my house but forsee difficulties in a national switchover.
If I recall correctly, Hydrogen is part of the mix of what’s pumped into homes already. The solution might actually just be about changing percentages and all the tricky stuff is at the consumer end.
So with vaccinations going full steam ahead I thought, hoped that in 2021 matters would quieten down a bit.
Instead we have:-
1. State sponsored hijacking of a plane by one of Putin's friends and the likely murder of a journalist critical of a government. 2. The Middle East in flames again with the extremists in Israel/Palestine gaining more power. 3. Revolting anti-semitism and threats of rape on the streets of our cities. 4. Gang violence in Primrose Hill. 5. The sort of persistent torrential rain which even Noah would have complained about. 6. The disappearance of summer.
And that's just in the last week or so.
Have I missed anything?
Your daughter’s restaurant re-opening?
I don't think of that as a disaster.
I should have mentioned aliens or alien geese or geese or whatever they are.
Oh, and on boilers - a boiler that only works on natural gas won't be much use when there is hydrogen coming out of the pipe.
How/when exactly will we switch over from natural gas to hydrogen - or is it an entirely new network of pipes ? I don't have an issue with burning hydrogen to warm my house but forsee difficulties in a national switchover.
I also have lots of engineering questions…
The only way I can think to do it is to mandate that new boilers have to be "hydrogen ready" in say 2024, you then mandate that people with boilers in let's say ooh 2035 have to switch by 2040 at which point you have a hard switchover on the system. Human led climate change is a long term, VERY long term issue - a few years here or there in a country like the UK won't make much odds and measures will be more accepted if stuff like this is done gradually.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
Yes I never voted for TB. And I agree there's no incentive for honest politicians.
I think it's a shame. Others celebrate it as it's "their" liar currently in power.
It is a sad state of affairs that there are a significant number of people that think having a demonstrably dishonest person for their leader is OK providing they win elections. I loathed Blair, but I think he was honest compared to Johnson. Blair was a dissembler and a purveyor of half truths, which is not uncommon among politicians. Personally I think it unnecessary in any walk of life. Johnson has gulled some people (indeed quite a lot) into believing lying is perfectly acceptable, because that is the way he has always lived his life, and to him it is as normal as cleaning his teeth. The country will eventually pay a price for it, if it hasn't already.
The Iraq war was not a half truth.
It was a blatant lie of the first order, cost much blood and treasure, and the knock-on effects were horrendous.
All because Tony was utterly dazzled by American power, and simply could not say no to Bush. Even the Americans were surprised by just how overcome Tony was.
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
My brother-in-law's new build (in Ireland) is very comfortably warm with a heat pump alone. I reckon you could mandate all new builds to be built to a standard that included heat pumps for heating. The technology is there.
For existing houses, not so much, but that's why people are developing things like the microwave boiler. Give people a problem to fix and they will come up with multiple solutions. Exciting times.
We have just done one in a large house, the client hates it, they were expecting something like a boiler, its nothing like that, there is so much pipework and equipment and it just provides background heat. The pump uses the heat in the outside air and ground so on a very cold day they will struggle to warm a house. The idea that you could retrofit current three bed semis with heat pumps is a non starter.
We are certainly not recommending them at the moment. They are eye wateringly expensive, usually 5 times the cost of a boiler and do not work anywhere near as well in heating a house.
Oh, and on boilers - a boiler that only works on natural gas won't be much use when there is hydrogen coming out of the pipe.
How/when exactly will we switch over from natural gas to hydrogen - or is it an entirely new network of pipes ? I don't have an issue with burning hydrogen to warm my house but forsee difficulties in a national switchover.
I also have lots of engineering questions…
The only way I can think to do it is to mandate that new boilers have to be "hydrogen ready" in say 2024, you then mandate that people with boilers in let's say ooh 2035 have to switch by 2040 at which point you have a hard switchover on the system. Human led climate change is a long term, VERY long term issue - a few years here or there in a country like the UK won't make much odds and measures will be more accepted if stuff like this is done gradually.
It depends how significant the change to boilers and cookers is, and the cost of the retrofit. We’ve been here before remember when we switched from town to natural gas. House by house we had to make alterations and check safety.
Strange lack of attention for what I believe is the first British world champion in the 4 belt era, perhaps he was waving the wrong flag after the match. A world title fight on the castle esplanade would be cool tho’.
More like few care about boxing but you would have to see it in the most possible negative light...
Funny, the media has been wanking themselves silly about the on-off Joshua v Fury fight which would have resulted in the first British 4 belt world champion.
That story is bullshit, but I can't be bothered to explain the details of what will actually happen.
As I said the other day the technology is not there with heat pumps. You need various cylinders to go with them so houses will need a plant room. They also just provide background heat. People are used to their radiators getting hot, that will never happen with a heat pump. On a cold day without any additional form of heating then a house will be cold. Heat pumps are not the answer.
My brother-in-law's new build (in Ireland) is very comfortably warm with a heat pump alone. I reckon you could mandate all new builds to be built to a standard that included heat pumps for heating. The technology is there.
For existing houses, not so much, but that's why people are developing things like the microwave boiler. Give people a problem to fix and they will come up with multiple solutions. Exciting times.
We have just done one in a large house, the client hates it, they were expecting something like a boiler, its nothing like that, there is so much pipework and equipment and it just provides background heat. The pump uses the heat in the outside air and ground so on a very cold day they will struggle to warm a house. The idea that you could retrofit current three bed semis with heat pumps is a non starter.
We are certainly not recommending them at the moment. They are eye wateringly expensive, usually 5 times the cost of a boiler and do not work anywhere near as well in heating a house.
You shouldn't struggle to heat the house if the air is cold if the pump (and heating system) has been sized correctly... However in my experience this often requires multiple heat pumps or a 3-phase power supply for a large retrofit.
Flightradar24 @flightradar24 We haven't seen any official airline announcements but it looks like some airlines are avoiding Belarus airspace.
On the other hand, RyanAir are still taking the cheapest route possible...
Carl Bildt @carlbildt It’s slightly insane, but @RyanairPress is flying through Belarus airspace as we speak. What are they thinking? There are also question marks on how they handled yesterday.
It wouldn't surprise me if Ryanair did change this soon, though. They'll need different refuelling arrangements, for example, which can't always be done in a couple of days.
MOL on the news saying he's waiting for guidance from the EU/NATO etc.
That’s strange - it’s usually him giving them advice, in the strongest possible terms…
My brother-in-law's new build (in Ireland) is very comfortably warm with a heat pump alone. I reckon you could mandate all new builds to be built to a standard that included heat pumps for heating. The technology is there.
My house in France (in Bretagne so not exactly a benign climate) has a Viessmann GSHP which works fine. I can get 70 deg system temperature at zero deg ambient. The 10kw solar array can run it flat out during the day. Retrofitting one in an existing house would be an absolute pain in the dick though. You also need a very well insulated and glazed house to get the best out of them.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
After thinking about it, I don't consider Blair a bigger liar than Johnson. I accept WMD, and going to war in Iraq was a dreadful and incredibly foolish thing to do, it seems now. Incidentally, thinking about that, I wonder what Saddam would have done if the US hadn't attacked. I suspect life for many (NOT all) Iraqis would be better than it is now.
But Johnson lies routinely and persistently. And always has done.
Indeed, it is an important distinction. I think Blair genuinely thought there were WMDs, and indeed most people did, including the intelligence services. The "dodgy dossier" was definitely "sexed up", but it was not necessarily a total lie. Boris Johnson clearly is a pathological liar. He can't help himself. Ultimately it may well cause the country a lot of problems. Those that enthusiastically support him (the real fanbois, as opposed to those who believe he is simply a better offering than Labour) are essentially telling us something about their own morality, in the same way those that support Salmond do.
The curious thing about the polls in recent months is how rapidly they have swung one way and then another. My theory is that's related to the marmite nature of the PM. It's impossible to be neutral on him.
That means that if everything is going well, he is triumphant, but also that his support melts away like the snow in... erm... late May when things go badly.
So to bet on the next election is mostly to bet on where we are in the love-hate cycle in a few years time. And whilst regaining control of the election date will help him a lot there, it's not foolproof.
And there is still the Max Hastings theory- everyone who has dealings with the Bozza regrets it in the end. It's just that some people haven't regretted it yet. Eventually the gap between his ability to tell stories and to deliver on them gets too big to ignore. (See fishermen, unionists, farmers...)
When everything was going badly for Boris it was neck and neck. Now everything’s going well, he is streets ahead, that’s why I think the Cons are a good bet at EVS for a majority
And that's the thing. At neck-and-neck, the Conservatives are out. (From memory, the breakpoint is Cons +2 and they are relying on the DUP... good luck with that!) It depends a lot on how efficiently the opposition votes are distributed. So to bet on how the next GE goes is to bet on how well Johnson's government governs. If he screws up, the public look like they are willing to, somewhat grumpily, line up behind the alternative.
Exactly. His detractors - many of whom have literally no grasp of political strategy - set the bar so low by calling him all the worst things under the sun that the reality can't help but exceed expectations. So as he becomes more popular they sit in stunned perplexity, learn nothing from their mistakes, and double down on the petty smears because they worked so well last time...
Nah it's not that. He is a liar unfit for office. Nothing has changed, no bars have been set, no expectations have been met, exceeded or fallen short.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
An even bigger liar than Boris won three consecutive General Elections though, didn't he?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
Yes I never voted for TB. And I agree there's no incentive for honest politicians.
I think it's a shame. Others celebrate it as it's "their" liar currently in power.
It is a sad state of affairs that there are a significant number of people that think having a demonstrably dishonest person for their leader is OK providing they win elections. I loathed Blair, but I think he was honest compared to Johnson. Blair was a dissembler and a purveyor of half truths, which is not uncommon among politicians. Personally I think it unnecessary in any walk of life. Johnson has gulled some people (indeed quite a lot) into believing lying is perfectly acceptable, because that is the way he has always lived his life, and to him it is as normal as cleaning his teeth. The country will eventually pay a price for it, if it hasn't already.
The difference between not telling the whole truth (which politicians have done forever) and outright lying is a subtle one- the sort of thing that ought to cause one's conscience to chafe. But difference there definitely is, and one of the worst things that Johnson has done is to elevate the idea that, because nobody is totally truthful, it's OK for him to spout bilge whenever it's convenient.
One of them means that, with effort and asking the right questions, truth can be established. The other means that there is no way of knowing which way is up and which is down. If you are prepared to just make stuff up, and do a runner when the lies get exposed, you're playing life on easy mode. It's frankly boorish.
Comments
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/National-Monthly-Omnibus-MAY-Release-1.pdf
In the real world sport kids tend to be brighter than average, and Brown & May were both incompetant for the job they aspired to.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/10296/economics/top-co2-polluters-highest-per-capita/
One thing I think Boris is good at, better than most politicians, is ruthlessly determining who to disappoint.
With the Brexit negotiations for instance May hitched her entire negotiations to Northern Ireland, despite the fact that there are precisely zero Tory NI MPs and only one NI MP who backed her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
On the other hand Boris ruthlessly got what he wanted for Great Britain and then dealt with NI almost as an afterthought to be resolved afterwards. He then has zero NI MPs instead of one backing him (plus Sylvia Hermon is retired now), but risked zero Tory MPs - and gained MPs across GB as a result.
People who dislike Boris bang on about "but what about the Irish Sea border" but the relevant fact with the border is that there are hundreds of Tory seats and Tory target seats in the bit that Boris has dealt with properly, and there are zero Tory seats and zero Tory target seats on the other side of the "border".
If he loses his majority the DUP would be unlikely to back the Tories again as they backed May in 2017 unless he removed the Irish Sea border (the same would apply if the UUP win any MPs) and all the other minor parties would back Starmer as PM over Boris
I don't think this has happened until now in pandemic (someone will tell me if not..)
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1396763141007159296?s=20
Of course the writ of Scots law only runs in Scotland - so all they can make illegal is leaving Scotland with the purpose of travelling to these places…
There is a lot of money to be made out of climate change, a hell of a lot. Follow the money.
As I said the only Northern Ireland MP to back her in any of the Meaningful Votes was Sylvia Hermon.
Winning a majority of the MPs is a much better way of governing than failing to win a majority, but keeping power by relying upon MPs of other parties who let you sit in Downing Street but not pass any contentious bills as they're voting with the opposition on them.
On the one hand you have a prime minister who is profoundly dishonest and has no respect for the institutions of the state or democracy. On the other you have a leader of the opposition who is honest, at least within normal politician parameters, is conscientious, and has a track record of running an important organisation more competently than his two successors, at least.
Just an idea.
If so, its working.
They say that better late than never, but in a fast-moving crisis 14 months late is testing the limits of that.
If the Tories win a majority in 2024 again then clearly Boris will stay in power with the status quo FTA for GB with the EU. If there is a hung parliament however, even with the Tories winning most seats, I would expect Starmer to become PM with SNP and LD support and he would pursue closer regulatory alignment with the single market and customs union for the whole UK, which would largely remove the Irish Sea border and probably be enough for the DUP and UUP not to oppose a Starmer premiership (Poots has already called for closer UK alignment with EU agricultural rules since becoming DUP leader).
Ironically a Starmer premiership would probably now see us return to something like the proposed May deal with the EU again
How come in the Scottish election the SCon Constituency vote fell by only 0.1%?
How come in the Scottish election the SCon Regional vote increased by 0.6%?
Doesn't seem like Boris is doing too badly in Scotland from the results, all things considered?
But we don't have this kind of suggestion or argument based solution provision as policy,
We have a full-on Maoist target driven approach, against which everything is going to be sacrificed.
Excellent HYUFD-esque use of fractions of percentage points btw.
I don't eat caviar, of any sort, often, of course.
The issue is that people like you like support him regardless of such failings which you don't think are failings at all. You think they are strengths and indeed they are electoral strengths.
And that's fine. It's called democracy. Just as people supported Jeremy Corbyn and thought that his value system was one they wanted to see exhibited by a Prime Minister, by Prime Minister Corbyn.
Doesn't mean that I think Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson are appropriate people to be Prime Minister.
Plus it's not exactly an improvement comparable with his performance south of Sark and Lamberton.
I didn't "use fractions of percentage points" - those are the actual results and that's how actual results instead of opinion polls get reported.
2021 Constituency 21.9% (down 0.1%)
2021 Regional 23.5% (up 0.6%)
Do you dispute those results. If Boris had seriously so disappointed "fishermen, farmers and Unionists" and if as you've been saying for a long time Douglas Ross is so awful, then presumably you'd have expected the SCons to have fallen by more than 0.1% in the Constituency vote?
Or to have fallen instead of rising in the Regional vote?
Given the success of Boris and "Bliar" I doubt there's going to be much incentive for honest politicians going forwards.
Instead we have:-
1. State sponsored hijacking of a plane by one of Putin's friends and the likely murder of a journalist critical of a government.
2. The Middle East in flames again with the extremists in Israel/Palestine gaining more power.
3. Revolting anti-semitism and threats of rape on the streets of our cities.
4. Gang violence in Primrose Hill.
5. The sort of persistent torrential rain which even Noah would have complained about.
6. The disappearance of summer.
And that's just in the last week or so.
Have I missed anything?
Cases and deaths are ticking along, nothing explosive, but enough to hinder plans to reopen. And tourism has been demolished
Meanwhile the vaccine roll-out is a mess, because corruption
I think it's a shame. Others celebrate it as it's "their" liar currently in power.
She said she was o…
my worst fear has come tru…
oh yeah. I get it. Your dad was right!
If people can afford to buy a house, pay stamp duty, find a deposit, spend a couple of thousand a year on dogs etc then for the vast majority that is a bit of a red herring.
The key is to do the other stuff. DIY house improvement does not have to be expensive.
The more interesting thing is the second para, which claims that 1/3 of C02 emissions come from 'heating systems'. All of our other C02 emissions have come down so far now that that is about right. Suprised me as I had not run the numbers recently.
For existing houses, not so much, but that's why people are developing things like the microwave boiler. Give people a problem to fix and they will come up with multiple solutions. Exciting times.
But Johnson lies routinely and persistently. And always has done.
Starmer needs to kick her out of the party right now.
Anyway next year is looking up. Boris and Carrie's state nuptuals. I hope it's televised, I love a wedding.
Was quick and easy to do.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/
As you say, tourism is demolished. Even internal tourism, which wasn't doing too badly.
Will be speaking to son at the weekend, and might well find out more.
I don't have an issue with burning hydrogen to warm my house but forsee difficulties in a national switchover.
I give you the example of Michael Howard in that infamous Paxman interview. Michael Howard tried to mislead by avoiding answering the question but would not outright lie. He got crucified for doing so. He could easily have lied and got away with it.
What would Boris have done?
Actually, I don’t think that’s your best example. Boris vs. Paxman was a Newsnight conference season highlight for years. Boris always did well.
We can use direct electricity if we want to. Not efficient? Who cares. It's renewable and cheap.
That's the end goal.
I should have mentioned aliens or alien geese or geese or whatever they are.
Human led climate change is a long term, VERY long term issue - a few years here or there in a country like the UK won't make much odds and measures will be more accepted if stuff like this is done gradually.
It was a blatant lie of the first order, cost much blood and treasure, and the knock-on effects were horrendous.
All because Tony was utterly dazzled by American power, and simply could not say no to Bush. Even the Americans were surprised by just how overcome Tony was.
We are certainly not recommending them at the moment. They are eye wateringly expensive, usually 5 times the cost of a boiler and do not work anywhere near as well in heating a house.
That’s not going to happen now of course. Shame.
Boris Johnson clearly is a pathological liar. He can't help himself. Ultimately it may well cause the country a lot of problems. Those that enthusiastically support him (the real fanbois, as opposed to those who believe he is simply a better offering than Labour) are essentially telling us something about their own morality, in the same way those that support Salmond do.
That might ensure many older people of limited means don't freeze to death every winter.
One of them means that, with effort and asking the right questions, truth can be established. The other means that there is no way of knowing which way is up and which is down.
If you are prepared to just make stuff up, and do a runner when the lies get exposed, you're playing life on easy mode. It's frankly boorish.
Can I interest you in a £53m invisible garden bridge and this £30,000 roll of wallpaper?