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Chart of the day: What happened in the Batley & Spen constituency at the May 2019 Euro elections – p

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageChart of the day: What happened in the Batley & Spen constituency at the May 2019 Euro elections – politicalbetting.com

This is, of course, Jo Cox’s former seat where a vacancy has occurred because the sitting LAB MP has resigned following her election as Mayor of West Yorkshire.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,922
    Test
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,943
    First. An honest first.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,096
    Fascinating graph. Makes me wonder if Tories are indeed going to repeat Hartlepool here. Thanks OGH.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,705
    Sizeable turnout of several hundred people in the square outside the railway station in support of Palestine. How much is simply a 'but the kids' human reaction and how much is a bit more politicised than that, I don't know.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,839
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sizeable turnout of several hundred people in the square outside the railway station in support of Palestine. How much is simply a 'but the kids' human reaction and how much is a bit more politicised than that, I don't know.

    Which railway station?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,048

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    Why lie? Not proud of yourself?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380
    I don’t see the Tories taking this seat.

    But then, I never saw them taking Hartlepool or losing Vale of Glamorgan. And I was completely wrong about that.

    It really is very hard to read politics right now.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,839
    edited May 15

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    My experience has been that people who don't want to be vaccinated are only too keen to tell you why their own way is so superior. No questions needed, intrusive or not.

    ETremove earlier comment.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    Why lie? Not proud of yourself?
    Not really, its just easy.

    The work person didn't even consider I might not have been vaccinated. Simply asked me 'which vaccine did you get?'

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,839
    ydoethur said:

    I don’t see the Tories taking this seat.

    But then, I never saw them taking Hartlepool or losing Vale of Glamorgan. And I was completely wrong about that.

    It really is very hard to read politics right now.

    I was completely wrong about Hartlepool too. I'm not one who can read political runes, so see no reason for things to change until after the event.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,034
    'I don't want to put that toxin into my body' said the anti-vaxxer, in between draws on their Silk Cut.

    On topic, it's all about our candidate choice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380

    'I don't want to put that toxin into my body' said the anti-vaxxer, in between draws on their Silk Cut.

    On topic, it's all about our candidate choice.

    We need to smoke these bastards out.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited May 15
    Pro_Rata said:

    Sizeable turnout of several hundred people in the square outside the railway station in support of Palestine. How much is simply a 'but the kids' human reaction and how much is a bit more politicised than that, I don't know.

    The local Friends of Hamas were parading around Cambridge whilst I was out getting some retail therapy earlier this afternoon, but I surmise that you are probably talking about somewhere else. The train station there is a bit of a hike from the city centre.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380
    Middlesex, you are officially boiling my piss. How can you not bat out a single day? One measly day. That would almost certainly eliminate Hants from the Group 1 race, and here you are at 93-7.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,783
    Gabriel Milland
    @gabrielmilland
    ·
    4h
    Public consent for further lockdowns or maintaining restrictions likely to be hugely weaker in these circs. To state the bleeding obvious.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,839
    Google tells me that the Batley and Spen area voted Leave by a small majority, so maybe, as in Hartlepool, Leave/Remain is still a significant factor. How does Labour's candidate measure up on that score?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380

    Gabriel Milland
    @gabrielmilland
    ·
    4h
    Public consent for further lockdowns or maintaining restrictions likely to be hugely weaker in these circs. To state the bleeding obvious.

    I think the number of eye tests to beauty spots will increase exponentially.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AnneJGP said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don’t see the Tories taking this seat.

    But then, I never saw them taking Hartlepool or losing Vale of Glamorgan. And I was completely wrong about that.

    It really is very hard to read politics right now.

    I was completely wrong about Hartlepool too. I'm not one who can read political runes, so see no reason for things to change until after the event.
    I called Hartlepool for Labour as well. The size of the Conservative majority really surprised me: it seems that BXP may indeed have acted as a gateway drug to voting Tory, and that it's former supporters are breaking for the Conservatives in large numbers.

    Given the Hartlepool result, you have to wonder whether or not Batley & Spen is salvageable for Labour, even taking into account the more favourable demographics (B&S is about 20% Asian, whereas Hartlepool is white as the driven snow.) After one big Conservative victory, one can do little but agree with the punters on this one.

    Which probably means that Labour will end up winning it after all.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,034
    No message yet to invite me for a second jab on Monday. Surely Bozo wasn't spouting shite when he told me yesterday that I'd get it after 8 weeks?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,499
    edited May 15
    Talking of jabs , I had my second one today and I noticed that all the bays for people to be seated were numbered to 20 but there was no bay 13. I asked why not and was told that there were too many superstitious people. And no 13 bay had had to be removed as people would not sit in it... Jeez.....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    I don't have any regard for the answers to questions I don't think should be asked in the first place. Do you?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,051
    Mr. Root, that isn't uncommon.

    One of the reason hotel lifts have three numbers per row is so that 13 can be subtly missing, which happens in a surprisingly large number of cases (I forget the specifics).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,344

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    I don't have any regard for the answers to questions I don't think should be asked in the first place. Do you?
    Why not just say “that’s none of your business” rather than lie. Boasting on here about the fact you don’t want to have it because you don’t want the man to know about it is basically the same as Justin’s tedious tirades about refusing to do the census.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,915
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,093

    No message yet to invite me for a second jab on Monday. Surely Bozo wasn't spouting shite when he told me yesterday that I'd get it after 8 weeks?

    20 days, 14 hours and 40 minutes between my doses.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,379

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    I don't have any regard for the answers to questions I don't think should be asked in the first place. Do you?
    You clearly do if you feel it necessary to lie.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,048

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    I don't have any regard for the answers to questions I don't think should be asked in the first place. Do you?
    The vaccination question depends on context. If you are nhs, then I think it a fair question. Possibly also for non nhs where your job is customer facing. In your case I suspect you are not proud of not having the jab, for the endlessly contorted reasons you have detailed on pb.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,344
    edited May 15

    No message yet to invite me for a second jab on Monday. Surely Bozo wasn't spouting shite when he told me yesterday that I'd get it after 8 weeks?

    Is it to the day, or “around” eight weeks? Given the policy was just announced it is not surprising that those that are 7 weeks and 6 days have not yet received their invitation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,379
    The UK Recovery Trial effort conclusively demonstrates convalescent plasma doesn’t work in Covid
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00897-7/fulltext

    Used in 500k US cases without their conducting a RCT.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    ydoethur said:

    'I don't want to put that toxin into my body' said the anti-vaxxer, in between draws on their Silk Cut.

    On topic, it's all about our candidate choice.

    We need to smoke these bastards out.
    Too much of a fag.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380
    edited May 15

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    I don't have any regard for the answers to questions I don't think should be asked in the first place. Do you?
    Yes. Because a lie is still a lie.

    Legitimate to refuse to answer. Which is what I do when children ask me personal questions (which they frequently do). But to lie? No. That says a lot about you and not in a good way.

    Edit - and as on your own admission one question was ‘which vaccine did you have?’ you could perfectly easily have deflected it by saying ‘I wasn’t told.’
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,266
    Pulpstar said:

    No message yet to invite me for a second jab on Monday. Surely Bozo wasn't spouting shite when he told me yesterday that I'd get it after 8 weeks?

    20 days, 14 hours and 40 minutes between my doses.
    How did you manage that?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,437
    Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a historical gem. I've watched too many episodes of the road show - the UK original by far the best - to want it to be put into a trash bin for some lucky whomever to snatch it up - maybe.

    The made the Liberty Bell. And even if there may have been some quality control issues, you may notice that we Americans have never asked for a replacement.

    You've got my vote. And suspect plenty of others from across the USA including a WIDE spectrum of taste and opinion from Bernie Sanders to Ted Cruz.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 436
    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,839
    edited May 15
    ydoethur said:

    'I don't want to put that toxin into my body' said the anti-vaxxer, in between draws on their Silk Cut.

    On topic, it's all about our candidate choice.

    We need to smoke these bastards out.
    You could try vaping them out. I swear passive vaping is a much, much worse experience than passive smoking.

    The people upstairs from me switched from cigarettes to vaping. The smell of both burning tobacco and vaping comes down, and the vaping not only smells awful but has a bigger impact on my breathing.

    ETA from me.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380

    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/

    I had seen.

    This is unusual. In fact, Israel are normally careful about trying to avoid the media being affected. Looks bad.

    It’s starting to look more as though some of these targets are personal spite on the part of Netanyahu.

    Very very stupid of him if so.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,354

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    Why lie? Not proud of yourself?
    Not really, its just easy.

    The work person didn't even consider I might not have been vaccinated. Simply asked me 'which vaccine did you get?'

    So the big question is - which vaccine did you not have?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    So, what you're saying is that most people lie about their lying?

    Someone who doesn't lie about their lying (if your earlier supposition is correct) is therefore more, rather than less, honest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,354
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    I don't have any regard for the answers to questions I don't think should be asked in the first place. Do you?
    Yes. Because a lie is still a lie.

    Legitimate to refuse to answer. Which is what I do when children ask me personal questions (which they frequently do). But to lie? No. That says a lot about you and not in a good way.

    Edit - and as on your own admission one question was ‘which vaccine did you have?’ you could perfectly easily have deflected it by saying ‘I wasn’t told.’
    "I wasn't told" is also a lie. You are now grading different types of lie.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,376

    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/

    Astonishingly stupid. They knew what they were doing too, because they told the AP in advance!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    So, what you're saying is that most people lie about their lying?

    Someone who doesn't lie about their lying (if your earlier supposition is correct) is therefore more, rather than less, honest.
    True.

    But it does surprise me that contrarian, who sees themselves as a campaigner for the truth that is being hidden from the rest of us, admits to being a fluent liar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Don't worry Lord Mandelson, your secret is safe with us.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,167
    By my maths the projection adds up to just under 92% of the vote. In the circumstances it feels important to know where the other 8% went because it could make all the difference to how the balance of votes go. Any ideas?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 89,322
    edited May 15
    Looking at those numbers Conservatives + Brexit Party got 42% in Batley and Spen at the 2019 Euro elections and Labour + LDs + Greens + CHUK got 49%, so it could be close but it is significantly less Leave than Hartlepool was.

    In Hartlepool at the European elections the Brexit Party and UKIP got more than all the other parties combined
    file:///home/chronos/ua4ac0077cff3dec12ab65f91af1476ea4829487c/MyFiles/Downloads/Hartlepool___Statement_of_Result.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    Evans fit to start. I am not confident though. Chelsea are odds on.
  • borisatsunborisatsun Posts: 188

    Talking of jabs , I had my second one today and I noticed that all the bays for people to be seated were numbered to 20 but there was no bay 13. I asked why not and was told that there were too many superstitious people. And no 13 bay had had to be removed as people would not sit in it... Jeez.....

    Just got home from my second jab.

    It started pouring down on me halfway there and I, umbrella-less, got thoroughly soaked. I felt a bit cold and miserable as I dripped in the waiting area after, but the sun was back brightly enough on my walk home to warm and dry me completely.

    I'm celebrating my consequently somewhat sunnier disposition with a nice cold beer :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,354

    Talking of jabs , I had my second one today and I noticed that all the bays for people to be seated were numbered to 20 but there was no bay 13. I asked why not and was told that there were too many superstitious people. And no 13 bay had had to be removed as people would not sit in it... Jeez.....

    Just got home from my second jab.

    It started pouring down on me halfway there and I, umbrella-less, got thoroughly soaked. I felt a bit cold and miserable as I dripped in the waiting area after, but the sun was back brightly enough on my walk home to warm and dry me completely.

    I'm celebrating my consequently somewhat sunnier disposition with a nice cold beer :)
    Great news.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Don't worry Lord Mandelson, your secret is safe with us.
    I thought you didn’t approve of doxxing?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 63,034
    Chris said:

    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/

    Astonishingly stupid. They knew what they were doing too, because they told the AP in advance!
    I wonder if Hamas were using the AP as a human shield?

    But if they were what does blowing up the building but evacuating it first achieve?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,768
    Foxy said:

    Evans fit to start. I am not confident though. Chelsea are odds on.

    I've got a bet on Leicester to win cup at 12/1. But like you my hunch is Chelsea. I've had a small punt for interest on 3-2 Chelsea at 42 with BF.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,915

    Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a historical gem. I've watched too many episodes of the road show - the UK original by far the best - to want it to be put into a trash bin for some lucky whomever to snatch it up - maybe.

    The made the Liberty Bell. And even if there may have been some quality control issues, you may notice that we Americans have never asked for a replacement.

    Oops

    Dissatisfied with the bell, Norris instructed Charles to order a second one, and see if Lester and Pack would take back the first bell and credit the value of the metal towards the bill. In 1754, the Assembly decided to keep both bells; the new one was attached to the tower clock[18] while the old bell was, by vote of the Assembly, devoted "to such Uses as this House may hereafter appoint.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Bell

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,507
    The increase in positive tests has waned again, a trend that has been with us for 3-4 days now. Slightly interesting…
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,630
    It’s possible to hold the same views simultaneously:

    - lockdown was too blunt and in many respects counter productive, with Covid-19 turning out not to be quite the bogeyman feared by many in Q1 2020
    - modern medical science is an extraordinary blessing. How lucky we are to live in a country with strong vaccine supply against a new disease which is generally highly unpleasant to endure, and fatal more often than we would like.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,437
    Off Topic - Thanks again to David Herdson, looking forward with semi-bated breath for your occasional contributions. And know I'm NOT alone!

    Will be very interesting to see the trajectory of the Green vote in Batley and Spen. Based on last week would seem they have potential for attracting votes from 2019 Lib Dem, Labour AND Brexit voters. And perhaps even Conservatives, though that will likely be masked (I think) by movement of some Labour voters from the Red Hordes to the Blue Meanies.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,344

    Chris said:

    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/

    Astonishingly stupid. They knew what they were doing too, because they told the AP in advance!
    I wonder if Hamas were using the AP as a human shield?

    But if they were what does blowing up the building but evacuating it first achieve?
    It stops, or at least reduces, coverage of Palestinian women and children cowering under Israeli missile explosions, thus leaving only pictures of Israeli women and children cowering under Hamas missile explosions.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,557
    edited May 15
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    So, what you're saying is that most people lie about their lying?

    Someone who doesn't lie about their lying (if your earlier supposition is correct) is therefore more, rather than less, honest.
    But if you lie about lying, presumably you always tell the truth ... I always lie
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,520
    France has reached 20 million with a first dose.

    https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron/status/1393578546275225601
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 63,034
    HYUFD said:

    Looking at those numbers Conservatives + Brexit Party got 42% in Batley and Spen at the 2019 Euro elections and Labour + LDs + Greens + CHUK got 49%, so it could be close but it is significantly less Leave than Hartlepool was.

    In Hartlepool at the European elections the Brexit Party and UKIP got more than all the other parties combined
    file:///home/chronos/ua4ac0077cff3dec12ab65f91af1476ea4829487c/MyFiles/Downloads/Hartlepool___Statement_of_Result.pdf

    That doesn't look like a valid URL chronos.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    algarkirk said:

    By my maths the projection adds up to just under 92% of the vote. In the circumstances it feels important to know where the other 8% went because it could make all the difference to how the balance of votes go. Any ideas?

    I thing there was quite a low turnout for the 2019 Euros, so I am not convinced that parsing the minutiae will give an accurate answer.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,484
    edited May 15
    algarkirk said:

    By my maths the projection adds up to just under 92% of the vote. In the circumstances it feels important to know where the other 8% went because it could make all the difference to how the balance of votes go. Any ideas?

    Yorkshire Party, UKIP and Eng Dem:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorkshire_and_the_Humber_(European_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 6,768

    The increase in positive tests has waned again, a trend that has been with us for 3-4 days now. Slightly interesting…

    I wish they would stop publishing these figures, they are so low now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,048

    The increase in positive tests has waned again, a trend that has been with us for 3-4 days now. Slightly interesting…

    I believe we are seeing an artefact of the return from India of the overwintering hordes, and those infected by them, I saw something earlier which suggests the Indian variant may be similar in ability to spread to the Kent version, so the main issues we are seeing are in the unvaccinated with links to Indian travellers (eg family members then schools). I’m feeling pretty chipper about tomorrow and June.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380

    Chris said:

    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/

    Astonishingly stupid. They knew what they were doing too, because they told the AP in advance!
    I wonder if Hamas were using the AP as a human shield?

    But if they were what does blowing up the building but evacuating it first achieve?
    It stops, or at least reduces, coverage of Palestinian women and children cowering under Israeli missile explosions, thus leaving only pictures of Israeli women and children cowering under Hamas missile explosions.
    More likely to increase it. The staff are now out and about in Gaza rather than cowering in their office. Who knows what they will see, snap and send in?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,557
    rcs1000 said:

    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.

    Not about how skirts, dresses or slacks make a certain person's arse look?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Evans fit to start. I am not confident though. Chelsea are odds on.

    I've got a bet on Leicester to win cup at 12/1. But like you my hunch is Chelsea. I've had a small punt for interest on 3-2 Chelsea at 42 with BF.
    I think Leicester need to score first to win. Chelsea are masters of parking the bus under Tuchel.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.

    Not about how skirts, dresses or slacks make a certain person's arse look?
    I'm usually happy to tell (a slightly modified) version of the truth in those circumstances. Unless we're already running late.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 89,322

    HYUFD said:

    Looking at those numbers Conservatives + Brexit Party got 42% in Batley and Spen at the 2019 Euro elections and Labour + LDs + Greens + CHUK got 49%, so it could be close but it is significantly less Leave than Hartlepool was.

    In Hartlepool at the European elections the Brexit Party and UKIP got more than all the other parties combined
    file:///home/chronos/ua4ac0077cff3dec12ab65f91af1476ea4829487c/MyFiles/Downloads/Hartlepool___Statement_of_Result.pdf

    That doesn't look like a valid URL chronos.
    It is from Hartlepool Council

    https://www.hartlepool.gov.uk/downloads/download/1047/statement_of_result_-_european_parliamentary_election
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,557
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.

    Not about how skirts, dresses or slacks make a certain person's arse look?
    I'm usually happy to tell (a slightly modified) version of the truth in those circumstances. Unless we're already running late.
    :cold_sweat:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    Chris said:

    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/

    Astonishingly stupid. They knew what they were doing too, because they told the AP in advance!
    I wonder if Hamas were using the AP as a human shield?

    But if they were what does blowing up the building but evacuating it first achieve?
    It stops, or at least reduces, coverage of Palestinian women and children cowering under Israeli missile explosions, thus leaving only pictures of Israeli women and children cowering under Hamas missile explosions.
    The point being Israel believed others were using the building - it is standard procedure for Hamas to co site stuff with or near civilians - hence the weapons cache slap bang next to a mosque on one side and kindergarten on the other for example.

    If Israel wants to deny a space rather than hit a high value target (person) they typically warn first

    Last night we had the horrific example of Israel going after a high value target with no warning and wiping out a bunch of kids ( I assume the targets family, but not been following it much today)
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,557
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.

    Not about how skirts, dresses or slacks make a certain person's arse look?
    I'm usually happy to tell (a slightly modified) version of the truth in those circumstances. Unless we're already running late.

    For me, the running late is a given. If I say anything, she slows down, while claiming she isn't. I've learnt to play solitaire on my phone to deal with the blood pressure issues.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,437
    Scott_xP said:

    Whitechapel Bell Foundry is a historical gem. I've watched too many episodes of the road show - the UK original by far the best - to want it to be put into a trash bin for some lucky whomever to snatch it up - maybe.

    The made the Liberty Bell. And even if there may have been some quality control issues, you may notice that we Americans have never asked for a replacement.

    Oops

    Dissatisfied with the bell, Norris instructed Charles to order a second one, and see if Lester and Pack would take back the first bell and credit the value of the metal towards the bill. In 1754, the Assembly decided to keep both bells; the new one was attached to the tower clock[18] while the old bell was, by vote of the Assembly, devoted "to such Uses as this House may hereafter appoint.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Bell

    Thanks for this! Yet again I stand corrected - lightening DOES strike twice!

    But that was before 1776. Indeed, this episode no doubt contributed to colonial discontent in Philadelphia & rest of Pennsylvania. Including bartenders and landladies who told delegates to the Constitutional Convention all about it!

    Dashing off but will check out the wiki later. Sans that briefing, sounds like the X factor may have been shipping charges? Which can NOT have been cheap, for hauling a huge, awkward-to-handle hunk of metal across the Atlantic, plus insurance.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Boris Johnson would secure 122-seat majority if he called snap general election, mass poll finds
    The Prime Minister would win 23 more Red Wall seats in the Midlands and the North

    Altogether now "oh, Keir Starmer"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,520
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.

    Not about how skirts, dresses or slacks make a certain person's arse look?
    These days the traditional diplomatic answer is as likely to be wrong. "What do you mean it doesn't?"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,277
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    'I don't want to put that toxin into my body' said the anti-vaxxer, in between draws on their Silk Cut.

    On topic, it's all about our candidate choice.

    We need to smoke these bastards out.
    Too much of a fag.
    ...or even a drag.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    And another one going to be hit shortly

    The Mushtaha tower is the building in Gaza that the IDF has announced to bomb and destroy in a few minutes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 63,034
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.

    Not about how skirts, dresses or slacks make a certain person's arse look?
    I'm usually happy to tell (a slightly modified) version of the truth in those circumstances. Unless we're already running late.
    Does this dress make my arse look big?

    No. Your arse is big.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,523
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Evans fit to start. I am not confident though. Chelsea are odds on.

    I've got a bet on Leicester to win cup at 12/1. But like you my hunch is Chelsea. I've had a small punt for interest on 3-2 Chelsea at 42 with BF.
    The FA Cup final (along with The Open, US Masters, Eurovision , World Snooker final and Olympics) is one of the few events where I bet outside of politics . So my punt this year is £20 with Unibet for Leicester to win the trophy at 7/4
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,484
    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson would secure 122-seat majority if he called snap general election, mass poll finds
    The Prime Minister would win 23 more Red Wall seats in the Midlands and the North

    Altogether now "oh, Keir Starmer"

    Which polling company was this? Trying to find the details.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,277
    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson would secure 122-seat majority if he called snap general election, mass poll finds
    The Prime Minister would win 23 more Red Wall seats in the Midlands and the North

    Altogether now "oh, Keir Starmer"

    I was wondering why I had hardly been on here for a few days. You just reminded me. Thanks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,933
    ydoethur said:

    BREAKING: Israel launched an airstrike on the Al-Jalaa tower in Gaza, destroying the building which housed The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, AFP and other international media organizations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/nczxvu/breaking_israel_launched_an_airstrike_on_the/

    I had seen.

    This is unusual. In fact, Israel are normally careful about trying to avoid the media being affected. Looks bad.

    It’s starting to look more as though some of these targets are personal spite on the part of Netanyahu.

    Very very stupid of him if so.
    Quite apart from any moral aspect to things, even more horrible regimes get diplomatically constrained when they go too far, intentionally or otherwise - see how Iran had to step back when they shot down that plane.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,523

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Evans fit to start. I am not confident though. Chelsea are odds on.

    I've got a bet on Leicester to win cup at 12/1. But like you my hunch is Chelsea. I've had a small punt for interest on 3-2 Chelsea at 42 with BF.
    The FA Cup final (along with The Open, US Masters, Eurovision , World Snooker final and Olympics) is one of the few events where I bet outside of politics . So my punt this year is £20 with Unibet for Leicester to win the trophy at 7/4
    I do not know the ins and outs of premier league football but looking at the League table it indicates that there is nothing between the teams over 36 matches so Leicester surely the value at 7/4?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 14,670
    edited May 15
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Somebody said FPT they don't know anyone who has not had a vaccine, but the chances are someone is lying to you.

    I have already lied to one friend (not someone I have met personally for more than a year) and one work colleague (also who I have not met for a year) .

    Don't want to be lied to? don't ask me about my medical history. It is private.

    You share it on here.
    I suppose I am naive in thinking my identity is not generally known.
    Well, I would certainly agree with your first five words.

    I’m more surprised by your frank admission that you lie when it suits you. Yes, that confirms what most of us thought, but most people are careful about admitting their dishonesty.
    So, what you're saying is that most people lie about their lying?

    Someone who doesn't lie about their lying (if your earlier supposition is correct) is therefore more, rather than less, honest.
    But if you lie about lying, presumably you always tell the truth ... I always lie
    No, that is meta-lying. Like HYUFD's taking averages of averages, it is not commensurable with the first order stuff.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson would secure 122-seat majority if he called snap general election, mass poll finds
    The Prime Minister would win 23 more Red Wall seats in the Midlands and the North

    Altogether now "oh, Keir Starmer"

    I was wondering why I had hardly been on here for a few days. You just reminded me. Thanks.
    Bye!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 42,380
    Floater said:

    And another one going to be hit shortly

    The Mushtaha tower is the building in Gaza that the IDF has announced to bomb and destroy in a few minutes.

    Has Netanyahu actually lost what passes for his mind?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,484
    "Politics For All
    @PoliticsForAlI

    The majority of patients recently admitted to Bolton Hospital with coronavirus were eligible for the vaccine, but hadn’t had one

    Via
    @Independent"

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1393508763223662592
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,277


    Universal Basic Income to be tested in Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57120354

    Drakeford, in a convoluted sentence, is quoted as saying:

    "We need to make an early start on designing the pilot to make sure that we have the best chance of operating a pilot that allows us to draw the conclusions from it that we would all want to see."

    Well ... err ... the point of a pilot study is to test things and to find out things.

    Not to "allow us to draw the conclusions from it that we would all want to see."

    There is no point to such a pilot study.

    I like the idea. It is unfortunate Drakeford is running the pilot, thus it will undoubtedly have been fully discredited by the end of week one.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    Andy_JS said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson would secure 122-seat majority if he called snap general election, mass poll finds
    The Prime Minister would win 23 more Red Wall seats in the Midlands and the North

    Altogether now "oh, Keir Starmer"

    Which polling company was this? Trying to find the details.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/15/boris-johnson-would-secure-122-seat-majority-called-snap-general/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Evans fit to start. I am not confident though. Chelsea are odds on.

    I've got a bet on Leicester to win cup at 12/1. But like you my hunch is Chelsea. I've had a small punt for interest on 3-2 Chelsea at 42 with BF.
    The FA Cup final (along with The Open, US Masters, Eurovision , World Snooker final and Olympics) is one of the few events where I bet outside of politics . So my punt this year is £20 with Unibet for Leicester to win the trophy at 7/4
    I do not know the ins and outs of premier league football but looking at the League table it indicates that there is nothing between the teams over 36 matches so Leicester surely the value at 7/4?
    I think we could beat Lampard's Chelsea comfortably, but this is Tuchel's team now. Look at the form since he took over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 68,933
    rcs1000 said:

    My lying is usually restricted to a very few special circumstances, almost all related to leaving the house. Now. Please.

    That's no lie, just part of rules of conversation, like only saying your weekend was fine when work colleagues ask.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited May 15
    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics For All
    @PoliticsForAlI

    The majority of patients recently admitted to Bolton Hospital with coronavirus were eligible for the vaccine, but hadn’t had one

    Via
    @Independent"

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1393508763223662592

    Shakes head....

    Also much as I blame the government repeated for not properly closing the border, the number of people who still decide to travel, especially to India, for non-essential reasons against the rules and then also did the swerve re-routing via Turkey in order to get around hotel quarantine in the UK also must take some responsibility.

    You went to a country rife with COVID against the advice (and for many against the rules), and then you came back, broke the rules again in terms of quarantining and now given to it many people close to you who decided that vaccination wasn't for them.
This discussion has been closed.