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LAB gets its best Westminster by-election performance for five years at Airdrie & Shotts – political
LAB gets its best Westminster by-election performance for five years at Airdrie & Shotts – politicalbetting.com
Overnight we have had the result of the Airdrie and Shotts by-election which was held following the resignation of the former SNP MP to run for the same seat at last week’s election for the Scottish parliament.
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She was first elected to House of Commons for Labour in 1928 by-election for Coatsbridge constituency, when she was still too young (as a then-single woman) to vote. In her maiden speech she denounced Winston Churchill and went on to marry Aneurin Bevan.
“Boost self-isolation support or risk Covid resurgence, experts say”
“Cases and deaths decline as experts say country has ‘tamed the virus’”
One of course is the U.K., the other the US. You wouldn’t know that the former is currently experiencing case numbers, and especially deaths, running at a tiny fraction of the latter, has a more advanced (arguably) vaccine programme, and far better prospects (due to lack of vaccine scepticism) of reaching vaccine led herd immunity. The misleading use of words like “experts” or “scientists” (or “economists” or whatever...) to imply consensus and lack of potential for countering viewpoints is one of those things that annoys me intensely. Yes the articles behind the headlines will generally provide more in the way of necessary qualification, but is it too much to occasionally drop in the word “some”?
Labour is still not in a position to tackle the SNP. Even with the help of its political rivals.
SNP, still winning here.
Labour, still losing here.
Which is nice.
I'm not sure how hard I could hold my nose in such circumstances.
And, while I wish everyone well, it's not the best of mornings here. Where did all this rain come from? Not doing Essex cricket a lot of good, either!
Delay in giving second jabs of Pfizer vaccine improves immunity
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/14/delay-in-giving-second-jabs-of-pfizer-vaccine-improves-immunity
Generally, tactical voting rests upon the proposition that you are sufficiently strongly opposed to one party’s programme in the round that you are prepared to vote for your second choice party if it has a better chance of beating the party you really don’t like.
The proposition in Scotland is different - it is based on a single issue of an indy referendum, and asking voters to weigh the strength of their views on that against their views on every other political issue.
I did vote 'partially' tactically last week; I thought, rightly as it turned out, that the Green was much more likely to beat the Conservative than either the Labour or LD. And I've met him a few times and he seems like one of the 'good guys'!
The other point that those who complain that only Scottish Tories are willing to vote tactically are missing is that, since the driver for voting tactically is a single issue, the people willing to do it will be those who feel very strongly about the indy referendum issue above all else. And almost by definition those will mainly be Tories.
Allowing one side to ‘win’ a proposition but deny its implementation because of a further hurdle is the worst possible result. Arguably, this is how the whole SNP resurgence started, when devolution was first denied in that way.
When it comes to fundamental changes, there are arguments for hurdles, but you achieve that through the process, not by tricksy maths with the result. Either you put in the work to develop a specific proposition, with some detail, before the vote, or you have two votes, one in principal, and one on the final deal.
This is Cameron’s biggest misjudgement, and why he should be consigned to the bottom of the PM league table - not that he was willing to hold a referendum in the first place - but that he was so hubristically confident he could stroll to a win that he applied no thought as to the process, didn’t force the leave side to be specific about the change, and didn’t build in a second vote from the outset so that we could be sure people knew what they were voting for.
I sometimes wonder if *some* of the scientists really understand how desperate people are for the vaccine, and how important the maintenance of the roadmap is.
Something I've never been able to do.
Maybe, Mr T, as you mature........
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-advises-on-covid-19-vaccine-for-people-aged-under-40
It seems very clear.
What is, or are, modern studies?
"The difference between patients and customers is that customers are the ones with rights"....
Modern Studies is contemporary and dynamic subject that focuses on the world we live in today. It covers key elements of the modern world such as politics, sociology and international relations. Issues range from political ideology and democratic government to human rights issues and crime. This is framed in Scottish, British and world contexts, to give students diverse and exciting perspectives on the world we live in. Pupils will develop transferable skills that can be applied across their school career, as well as those more specific to Modern Studies. They will learn to critically analysis information and develop research skills to access evidence. They will also develop a range of skills such as presentation, debate, role play and team work, by encouraging pupils to be creative in both thought and production, as well as reinforcing literacy and numeracy skills required for Higher and Further Education.
ie It's the current name for "all the other stuff we think you need".
I know it's Labour maths and all that, but pointing out reality is hardly being grumpy....
Huge win for Telegraph to be honest, which appears to have sunk this policy within 48 hours.
Every patient to have right to see a GP as NHS abandons ‘total triage’
Climbdown comes after The Telegraph revealed patients were being discouraged from visits and told to have online or phone discussion first
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/every-patient-have-right-see-gp-nhs-abandons-total-triage/
🚨 | NEW: Vaccine passports will be required to enter strip clubs when they reopen
Via @TheSun
First was Howard "vote for me" Beckett calling for Priti Patel to be deported. His suspension from Labour has caused uproar - all the "I'm an anti-racism campaigner me" activists think it outrageous that open racist comments are acted upon when it's one of their own. Don't Labour know that Mr Beckett cannot be racist or post racist stupid comments because he is one of them?
Second was the shock that the Indian Covid variant is here and is surging. The government could have chosen to stop incomers from India, but instead did Sod All until it was far too late. No wonder that (a) the internal Covid report is so scathing as to be buried and (b) the public enquiry has been long grassed so that it reports after the next election.
That’s what happens when policies are implemented/guidance is put forward without fully considering how it will be implemented in the real world.
I was delighted to note 'Modern Studies' is more than half a century old.
Mr. L, aye. Bit like the Diadochi if they hadn't stopped squabbling and united to fight against Antigonus.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/13/politics/joe-biden-cdc-mask-guidance/index.html
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1393085158316679169?s=19
The cases of vaccine breakthrough in Singapore Airport too:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1392366780828553221?s=19
It really would have been wise to red list India a bit more promptly.
https://apnews.com/article/international-news-europe-england-coronavirus-vaccine-coronavirus-pandemic-a3bebf20803869792f1bdf6c0dc0c8a7
The British Medical Association on Saturday urged England’s chief medical officer to “urgently review the U.K.’s current position of second doses after 12 weeks.”
In a statement, the association said there was “growing concern from the medical profession regarding the delay of the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as Britain’s strategy has become increasingly isolated from many other countries.”
I don't do "tactical voting" myself .... but my guess is that the most propitious occasion for tactical voting is a by-election without many consequences riding on the results.
Eg, the huge anti-Tory swings to the LibDems in the by-elections of the Thatcherite years were driven by tactical voters & the LibDems usually fell back at the constituency at the GE.
I wonder if Great Jumping Jolyon will take it on?
Which is PB.
Tweet has image of Bolton areas vaccinated vs infected (image only posts unreadably small)
In fact, the Welsh Tories & Plaid Cymru have called for this.
But, Llafur in Wales have been adamant that we do not need an inquiry into the behaviour of the Welsh Government's handling of COVID.
Funny that.
Although, I wonder if a more apt comparison might be the Romano-Gothic alliance that stopped Attila.
Hmm.
We really need some real world data on effects on combatting serious illness on a vaccinated population so that we can rationally decide whether to panic about it.
It concerns me that scientists are starting to put forward models including relatively very low numbers of deaths (there was one the other day referencing 9000 by March!) as a reason to be cautious about easing restrictions.
SLab lost voters to the Conservatives. SLab were tarred and feathered for standing with the Conservatives during IndyRef. SLab spend lots and lots of time attacking the SNP.
They have to win back Unionist voters who switched to Con and soft Indy voters who switched to SNP because they were disgusted by SLab standing with Con, they do that by attacking Con.
As it is, I did my NHS antibody test yesterday afternoon (as part of the random sampling study) and it showed I had long-term antibodies after my single AZN, which is very reassuring!
I did hear a statistic on R4 the other day that only 1% of vaccines had been delivered in the poorest countries of the world. I am slightly disappointed that we are not obviously still accelerating our efforts here so we can get on with the genuinely massive task of helping poor counties vaccinate as well to reduce this pernicious virus to more modest levels. Our own vaccination rates seem more like 300k a day recently than the 600k we were touching a week or two ago.
Well done Glasgow. Although, ideally it should have ended with the van upside down and on fire.
The SNP majority not only down 7% on the 2019 general election but also down 11% from the majority it got in the equivalent Scottish Parliament seat a week ago
630k yesterday. Although maybe you were talking averages.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1393104365171392514?s=20
As others have said, provided people know their appointment is for the AZN I don't see why they can't choose.
Suggests that predictions that covid will become an inner urban disease are likely to be right.
The key points they made were that there was evidence of transmission between the nurses, but all the cases were mild.
It's not great if it can still spread, because (a) you have immuno-compromised people who can't be vaccinated who will be at risk, (b) the more it spreads the more risk that it mutates further, and, (c) if it runs rampant through the people administering vaccines there's a risk of infecting a load of people just at the last point where they're still vulnerable.
It could clearly be a lot worse, though.
I'm sure I saw a limited analysis showing some (Not a Lot) tactical voting both Toy-Lab and vice versa in the Holyrood Election.
"Dry" April & May has actually seen a increase in overall vaccination numbers
He’ll be strapping on a suicide belt afore we know it.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1
...Although there were no findings in clear support of either a natural spillover or a lab accident, the team assessed a zoonotic spillover from an intermediate host as “likely to very likely,” and a laboratory incident as “extremely unlikely” [(4), p. 9]. Furthermore, the two theories were not given balanced consideration. Only 4 of the 313 pages of the report and its annexes addressed the possibility of a laboratory accident (4). Notably, WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus commented that the report's consideration of evidence supporting a laboratory accident was insufficient and offered to provide additional resources to fully evaluate the possibility (5).
As scientists with relevant expertise, we agree with the WHO director-general (5), the United States and 13 other countries (6), and the European Union (7) that greater clarity about the origins of this pandemic is necessary and feasible to achieve. We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data. A proper investigation should be transparent, objective, data-driven, inclusive of broad expertise, subject to independent oversight, and responsibly managed to minimize the impact of conflicts of interest. Public health agencies and research laboratories alike need to open their records to the public. Investigators should document the veracity and provenance of data from which analyses are conducted and conclusions drawn, so that analyses are reproducible by independent experts.
Finally, in this time of unfortunate anti-Asian sentiment in some countries, we note that at the beginning of the pandemic, it was Chinese doctors, scientists, journalists, and citizens who shared with the world crucial information about the spread of the virus—often at great personal cost (8, 9). We should show the same determination in promoting a dispassionate science-based discourse on this difficult but important issue...
I hope we get a system which has a good balance of both strategies, so as to (maybe) increase capacity.
There's sense in telephone appointments for people at work, for example. Good for reducing time required, half day holidays to be taken etc.
As far as I can see, they have made precisely ONE gain in by elections (Corby 2012) since Tony Blair became PM.