John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
At least the efforts you are now having to go to in order to produce yet another forecast of doom are increasing. It’s a shame we can’t make that into some sort of measure of our progress out of the pandemic.
The doom (from the media) is now of the if A and then there could be NHS problems unless there are local restrictions.
A few weeks ago it was "OMG summer peak in deaths to be worse than January!"
So, I agree, progress...
Once this is all over, expect breathless media stories about new viruses found in China/wherever, most of which, as before, will never become big news stories. Everyone will want to get the scoop on the next Covid. There might even be more of those stories than articles about who will/should be next Labour leader!
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
The answer to one of his questions - Is the rise in cases in the non-vaccinated groups?
We have a rise in 0-14, 15-44 and a barely noticeable rise for 45-64. Otherwise - a fall in cases.
That seems quite conclusive to me. The rise in cases is occurring among the unvaccinated cohorts.
The quite sensible idea to serge first jobs in areas with outbakes, e.g. Bolton, seems like an exelant idea to me, certainly something that should be given a go, but I thought I would do some maths, on pausing all second Jabs and sprinting to the finish on first Jab:
35,906,671 adults have had a job, that's 68.2% meaning that there are 52,649,078 people eligible for the Jab.
Opinion poling suggest that 84% of people have had it or wish to have it, so that's: 44,225,225 people
Therefore there are still 8,318,554 who wish to have the Jab but haven't yet.
This last week we have given on average, 138,929 first jabs and 371,321 second jabs, or 510,250 jabs a day.
Which means we could give everybody who wishes to have one first jab one in 16.3 days, or by the end of the month in laymen's terms.
Yes this would mean delaying the second job for some people by 16 days, but is it significantly reduces the total spread, it would help protect everybody, and as the most venerable have all had there second job now, it seems prudent.
Separately but also: If we extended it to 16 and 17 year olds, that's about 2 million more for another 4 days, it would mean that they will have all had there second does, at the start of September, just before they go to university or back collage.
Doesn't going over 12 (?) weeks between jabs mean you have to start the process all over again?
Canada is doing 16 weeks. There is no magic number of weeks that is demonstrably better than all other numbers of weeks. 12 weeks is arbitrary just as the 4 weeks used in the trials was.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.
Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
.. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them
..So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?
Just a thought
We know your modus operandi, young Sean.
Right now it’s “I am only relaying the concerns”.
As and when the Tower Hamlets NHS gets crushed, it’ll be “I have been warning on PB for MONTHS that the new variant would crush the NHS!”.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.
Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
Good questions. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them
One guess: the numbers of unvaxxed vary significantly by area and ethnicity. Tower Hamlets has thousands of unvaxxed, Teignmouth does not. So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?
Just a thought
If they've chosen not to get vaccinated then that's on them.
Keep offering them the vaccine, but if they want to take their chances against the Indian variant unvaccinated then so be it. We can't be kept hostage by antivaxxers.
That would be fine - and I agree - if we weren’t all sharing the same NHS. A million stupid anti vaxxers with Covid can fuck up the NHS for all of us, not just themselves
Make the jabs mandatory?
I think a local overwhelming of NHS seems far more likely (assuming big increase in transmission of Indian variant) than across the board.
As the NHS is a national system and as @Foxy described earlier in the crisis, patient transfer will help.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.
Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
.. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them
..So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?
Just a thought
We know your modus operandi, young Sean. Right now it’s “I am only relaying the concerns”.
As and when the Tower Hamlets NHS gets crushed, it’ll be “I have been warning on PB for MONTHS that the new variant would crush the NHS!”.
Maybe it is a plot line for a new page turner that will make a Jeffrey Archer novel look like a candidate for the Whitbread
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 38m This goes for anybody else for that matter. It’s a form of defence redolent of the Corbyn years- a qualified apology rooted in the idea that as a profoundly anti-racist person, it’s impossible for it to be a true example of racism, inadvertent or otherwise.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.
Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
Good questions. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them
One guess: the numbers of unvaxxed vary significantly by area and ethnicity. Tower Hamlets has thousands of unvaxxed, Teignmouth does not. So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?
Just a thought
If they've chosen not to get vaccinated then that's on them.
Keep offering them the vaccine, but if they want to take their chances against the Indian variant unvaccinated then so be it. We can't be kept hostage by antivaxxers.
That would be fine - and I agree - if we weren’t all sharing the same NHS. A million stupid anti vaxxers with Covid can fuck up the NHS for all of us, not just themselves
Make the jabs mandatory?
Using vans inscribed VACCINATION ENFORCEMENT in big, bold caps?
Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
I actually think you are wrong about the Greens
They are growing in popularity here and across Europe
Underestimate the Greens at your peril
Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward
Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England and the Cambridgeshire Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
Oh, they do, just things that they are sorry for what other people did. I am very sorry (on behalf of everyone else) about the Irish Famine , slavery, Ballymurphy.
For anything they should be personally sorry for it is "I am sorry, but....". A little like when someone says "I am not racist but...", or the thing I heard on a number of occasions from Glasgow taxi drivers back in the 90's "I don't really hate the English but..."
This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.
Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.
Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"
But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.
Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.
Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
Good questions. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them
One guess: the numbers of unvaxxed vary significantly by area and ethnicity. Tower Hamlets has thousands of unvaxxed, Teignmouth does not. So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?
Just a thought
If they've chosen not to get vaccinated then that's on them.
Keep offering them the vaccine, but if they want to take their chances against the Indian variant unvaccinated then so be it. We can't be kept hostage by antivaxxers.
That would be fine - and I agree - if we weren’t all sharing the same NHS. A million stupid anti vaxxers with Covid can fuck up the NHS for all of us, not just themselves
Make the jabs mandatory?
I think a local overwhelming of NHS seems far more likely (assuming big increase in transmission of Indian variant) than across the board.
As the NHS is a national system and as @Foxy described earlier in the crisis, patient transfer will help.
Labour really aren't getting any luck at the moment. The news about Wes Streeting's cancer is clearly personally horrible, but it also robs the party of one of its brighter younger talents.
This barnstorming article by Fraser Nelson is free from paywall until 1:30pm. I find it hard to disagree with a single word of it.
It includes the astonishing claim that scientists at SAGE who demurred from lockdown orthodoxy were threatened with the sack.
Not sure why I'm bothering, but this echoes what many of us have said on here for a long time. People do self lock down, they just tend to do it a bit later and to a lesser extent.
One choice quote: Sweden ended up with less than half the modelled death toll. Haven't verified that, but other than they've not 'ended' up anything yet, if we stop the clock now then the UK ended up with under 1/3 of the modelled death toll (which was 500k in do nothing - we're at around 1/4 if you use the 28 days from covid test stat). Hmmm
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
There is far too much reliance on a small model number of models rather than actual real world data thats for sure.
Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
I actually think you are wrong about the Greens
They are growing in popularity here and across Europe
Underestimate the Greens at your peril
Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward
Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation
Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
I note that councils have been empowered to override the ending of the mask mandate within schools, and locally to me both Kirklees and Calderdale have done so.
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
Oh, they do, just things that they are sorry for what other people did. I am very sorry (on behalf of everyone else) about the Irish Famine , slavery, Ballymurphy.
For anything they should be personally sorry for it is "I am sorry, but....". A little like when someone says "I am not racist but...", or the thing I heard on a number of occasions from Glasgow taxi drivers back in the 90's "I don't really hate the English but..."
Sincere public apologies usually take the form "I'm truly sorry if anyone was offended by .... " (mass murder, for example).
This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.
Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.
Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"
But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.
Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
I think you are overanalysing it, and so too are those that are against it. Although not a Labour supporter, I quite like Starmer and I think a lot of people are underestimating him on the basis of polls in a strange time, but I think he looked a bit silly genuflecting. he needs a better spin doctor.
What also bothers me about these new doom forecasts is that they lead with headlines like "1000 deaths per day" but don't specify how that will happen and which age groups will be affected. We have good evidence that this variant doesn't evade vaccines and we know 95%+ of groups 1-9 are vaccinated either partially or fully and we also know that people under 50 have very low mortality rates and around 40% of them have got acquired immunity or have been vaccinated partially or fully.
These claims simply don't hold water. Once again I'm sure when we see the detail of the inputs into this model it will have ridiculous assumptions that don't pass the sniff test.
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
Oh, they do, just things that they are sorry for what other people did. I am very sorry (on behalf of everyone else) about the Irish Famine , slavery, Ballymurphy.
For anything they should be personally sorry for it is "I am sorry, but....". A little like when someone says "I am not racist but...", or the thing I heard on a number of occasions from Glasgow taxi drivers back in the 90's "I don't really hate the English but..."
Sincere public apologies usually take the form "I'm truly sorry if anyone was offended by .... " (mass murder, for example).
It would have been an interesting defence at Nuremburg : "I am sorry if anyone was offended by my war crimes, I really didn't mean to cause offence"
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
I actually think you are wrong about the Greens
They are growing in popularity here and across Europe
Underestimate the Greens at your peril
Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward
Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation
Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
Why split? What about some policies that actually fix problems that everyone can agree on?
For example, in the UK there is an issue with deaths in custody. We have various forward positioned paramedics already - station some at police custodial sites.
Prompt medical attention will probably result in a number of black men not dying. As well as a number of people from other communities. And provide non-police witnesses to what happened.
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
"I'm sorry, I was wrong" covers most stuff, and sounds a lot less stupid.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
There is far too much reliance on a small model number of models rather than actual real world data thats for sure.
The trouble is that by the time you have real world data, it's a bit late. If you want to predict, you need models (which should be sceptically assessed, updated with updated info and assumptions tested as far as possible).
It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket
It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
The answer to one of his questions - Is the rise in cases in the non-vaccinated groups?
We have a rise in 0-14, 15-44 and a barely noticeable rise for 45-64. Otherwise - a fall in cases.
That seems quite conclusive to me. The rise in cases is occurring among the unvaccinated cohorts.
The quite sensible idea to serge first jobs in areas with outbakes, e.g. Bolton, seems like an exelant idea to me, certainly something that should be given a go, but I thought I would do some maths, on pausing all second Jabs and sprinting to the finish on first Jab:
35,906,671 adults have had a job, that's 68.2% meaning that there are 52,649,078 people eligible for the Jab.
Opinion poling suggest that 84% of people have had it or wish to have it, so that's: 44,225,225 people
Therefore there are still 8,318,554 who wish to have the Jab but haven't yet.
This last week we have given on average, 138,929 first jabs and 371,321 second jabs, or 510,250 jabs a day.
Which means we could give everybody who wishes to have one first jab one in 16.3 days, or by the end of the month in laymen's terms.
Yes this would mean delaying the second job for some people by 16 days, but is it significantly reduces the total spread, it would help protect everybody, and as the most venerable have all had there second job now, it seems prudent.
Separately but also: If we extended it to 16 and 17 year olds, that's about 2 million more for another 4 days, it would mean that they will have all had there second does, at the start of September, just before they go to university or back collage.
Doesn't going over 12 (?) weeks between jabs mean you have to start the process all over again?
The only studies so far show 12 weeks is better than 4 weeks. No evidence other than in pharma marketing materials that 13 or 14 weeks suddenly is worse than nothing.
Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.
Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -
Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?
The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
Many reasons. You can be so angry about something that you just have to let it out (like Morris et al with BLM and "the knee"). You can hope that if you take part in something communal you might, in your small way, be making a difference. In public it's sending more of a message than if you keep it all to yourself. It's getting it out there. And these things don't stop at national borders. Most of the concerning events that happen in the world happen outside the UK, after all and thankfully.
Why arent you making a public gesture for the uighars then? Or gays in certain eastern european and muslim countries or....the list goes on....would it be because usa ?
I don't actually do many demos. The last one I attended was the "save the Coffee Cup" (cafe) in Hampstead. And it worked!
(Yes, I take your point. Things in America get more attention. But it applies to everything in America, not just racism. That's what you get for dominating the modern world like they have.)
Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
I actually think you are wrong about the Greens
They are growing in popularity here and across Europe
Underestimate the Greens at your peril
Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward
Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation
Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
Why split? What about some policies that actually fix problems that everyone can agree on?
For example, in the UK there is an issue with deaths in custody. We have various forward positioned paramedics already - station some at police custodial sites.
Prompt medical attention will probably result in a number of black men not dying. As well as a number of people from other communities. And provide non-police witnesses to what happened.
Do enough deaths occur in custody that they outweigh the number of people that the paramedic would save if he wasn't tied to a police station?
Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.
Didn't see that coming.
Curious strategic move for the Greens and LibDems who might have otherwise been positioning themselves for disgruntled Labour votes.
Not really. They've positioned themselves for Committee chairs. Three years before they seek votes.
Well, if I were a Labour councillor dealing with a Green threat I might be pointing out the London Green-Tory alliance to waiving Labour supporters, saying vote Green, get Blue.
Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.
Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -
Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?
The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
Many reasons. You can be so angry about something that you just have to let it out (like Morris et al with BLM and "the knee"). You can hope that if you take part in something communal you might, in your small way, be making a difference. In public it's sending more of a message than if you keep it all to yourself. It's getting it out there. And these things don't stop at national borders. Most of the concerning events that happen in the world happen outside the UK, after all and thankfully.
Why arent you making a public gesture for the uighars then? Or gays in certain eastern european and muslim countries or....the list goes on....would it be because usa ?
I don't actually do many demos. The last one I attended was the "save the Coffee Cup" (cafe) in Hampstead. And it worked!
(Yes, I take your point. Things in America get more attention. But it applies to everything in America, not just racism. That's what you get for dominating the modern world like they have.)
It is also to do with the idea that the USA might respond positively.
A demo about Chechnya will get a F^&k Off! from Putin (if he notices). It might get you a present of perfume....
Labour really aren't getting any luck at the moment. The news about Wes Streeting's cancer is clearly personally horrible, but it also robs the party of one of its brighter younger talents.
If it was discovered by chance because he had another condition, hopefully it won’t have spread beyond the kidney, in which case his survival chances are excellent.
Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
I actually think you are wrong about the Greens
They are growing in popularity here and across Europe
Underestimate the Greens at your peril
Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward
Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation
Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
Why split? What about some policies that actually fix problems that everyone can agree on?
For example, in the UK there is an issue with deaths in custody. We have various forward positioned paramedics already - station some at police custodial sites.
Prompt medical attention will probably result in a number of black men not dying. As well as a number of people from other communities. And provide non-police witnesses to what happened.
Do enough deaths occur in custody that they outweigh the number of people that the paramedic would save if he wasn't tied to a police station?
I meant base them out of a police station. So that there will, nearly always, be some medics around.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG. However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...
I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.
What also bothers me about these new doom forecasts is that they lead with headlines like "1000 deaths per day" but don't specify how that will happen and which age groups will be affected. We have good evidence that this variant doesn't evade vaccines and we know 95%+ of groups 1-9 are vaccinated either partially or fully and we also know that people under 50 have very low mortality rates and around 40% of them have got acquired immunity or have been vaccinated partially or fully.
These claims simply don't hold water. Once again I'm sure when we see the detail of the inputs into this model it will have ridiculous assumptions that don't pass the sniff test.
We all know you are correct on this. The question is do the government?
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
There is far too much reliance on a small model number of models rather than actual real world data thats for sure.
The trouble is that by the time you have real world data, it's a bit late. If you want to predict, you need models (which should be sceptically assessed, updated with updated info and assumptions tested as far as possible).
But you need to base the inputs on observed data and reasonable extrapolation. You don't put in 45% of people having neutralising antibodies after we know that 55% of people have them according to real world data.
You're defending this kind of fake worst case scenario modelling but it exists to serve political aims.
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
It's not a real apology at all. A true apology is usually sufficient to wipe the slate clean. Most people are not particularly vindictive.
If you think you've done nothing wrong, it's better to say so, rather than offer such an excuse for an apology.
...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG. However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...
I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.
On second thoughts, no I don't.
It’s almost an inevitable consequence of ultracheap money.
In July, a band of rednecks and rocket scientists will launch the largest rocket in human history on a test flight. Which they will weld together in a Texas swamp. The first stage of which isn't built yet. For a total cost probably less than anyone else's space launch.
Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.
Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -
Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?
The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
Many reasons. You can be so angry about something that you just have to let it out (like Morris et al with BLM and "the knee"). You can hope that if you take part in something communal you might, in your small way, be making a difference. In public it's sending more of a message than if you keep it all to yourself. It's getting it out there. And these things don't stop at national borders. Most of the concerning events that happen in the world happen outside the UK, after all and thankfully.
Why arent you making a public gesture for the uighars then? Or gays in certain eastern european and muslim countries or....the list goes on....would it be because usa ?
I don't actually do many demos. The last one I attended was the "save the Coffee Cup" (cafe) in Hampstead. And it worked!
(Yes, I take your point. Things in America get more attention. But it applies to everything in America, not just racism. That's what you get for dominating the modern world like they have.)
It is also to do with the idea that the USA might respond positively.
A demo about Chechnya will get a F^&k Off! from Putin (if he notices). It might get you a present of perfume....
America isnt going to respond to it because the only people that could do something about it are the police themselves and they are so used to not having any accountability that the odds are they will do nothing. Its not just a black issue....american police forces are totally and utterly unaccountable and the police unions are strong enough to deter politicians from doing much either
Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.
Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
Firstly, those people have chosen not to be vaccinated, secondly the vaccines prevent the spread of the virus even with just a single dose. The cumulative effect of that will reduce these numbers quite significantly. We can't go back into lockdown becuase a few idiots have rejected the vaccine.
...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG. However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...
I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.
On second thoughts, no I don't.
Where exactly is Mr Gupta at the moment - I suspect it's a country with no extradition treaty with the UK
It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket
It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux
Lockdown at sub-10 deaths a day would be ridiculous. It'd be adhered to even less than the November lockdown. It will not change my plans one bit. It will also not happen.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
You need to take into account the CFR of the various groups - unvaccinated.
Very hard to get rid of the shit and the smell out of the carpet after someone takes a massive dump on it.
You clearly haven't been telephone canvassing for Labour.
Corbyn doesn't get a mention
Lack of policies lack of charisma lack of warmth lack of being on my side get plenty.
Main thing to make a return They are all the same
The thing I don't get is this - there are oceans of Social Democratic policies out there. That would warm the hearts of everyone from Corbynistas to the wet end of the Conservatives. That's lots and lots of votes.
Yes, I know. This is what Blair did. And hence Evul.
But why not?
Did Blair set out lots of Labour policies prior to the 1997 election campaign? I was only 5 years old at the time so obviously I don't know. It seems that in modern times the opposition only set out policies when the manifesto gets released.
Blair did not set out a substantive raft of policies, no. It was a timid offering. The anodyne pledge card. Sticking to Tory spending plans for 2 years. Do not frighten the horses.
The 97 landslide was built on a feeling. Time for a change. Tired sleazy Tories. THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER.
It worked a D:ream. The Conservative government was flushed away like a turd despite the economy looking (and being) quite rosy.
Which just goes to show.
Indeed - its just not healthy to have one party in permanent power, whether that is the Tories in England, the SNP in Scotland or Labour in Wales. People become complacent, more interested in fighting their petty squabbles, lose sight of the public at large. Labour in England needs to start remembering that its no good having the best policies in the world if no one will vote you into power. How much do they hate Blair that showed them that the country was never going to be as socialist as the party?
I agree. One party rule is the pits. And especially if that one party are the Tories.
On 'socialism', I think we need a reset. The economy being substantially nationalized is a dead idea. But policies to devolve wealth and opportunity away from those rolling in it to those starved of it are more needed than ever. For me, this is modern relevant socialism. New socialism if you like.
So I'd like to see us keep the radical spirit of the Corbyn era but (sorry Owen) ditch its clumsy, old fashioned policy programme. Come up with policies that will work in practice to achieve the above objective, a really significant devolution of wealth and opportunity.
And present this with real passion.
New Socialism. New Britain. New Socialism. New Britain.
Just maybe Boris has stolen your clothes !!!!!!!
Hmm. Not sure about that.
To deliver on Leveling Up, this government must enact some big radical polices to ensure that the left behind people in left behind places narrow the gap in a significant and sustainable way with those more fortunate.
If they do this, I'll applaud them, uncomfortable as it will be for me - but I have a feeling I'll be spared.
At least they are trying havent seen any labour policies that would help the left behind even in Corbyn years....plenty of policies that would hurt the left behind though
We'll see how serious the Tories are about it in due course. As for saying you haven't seen any Labour policies targeted at helping the less well off - this can only be because any manifesto of theirs that has ever managed to get in front of you has been consigned, unexamined, to the bin. I imagine you pride yourself on exactly that approach.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG. However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...
I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.
On second thoughts, no I don't.
It’s almost an inevitable consequence of ultracheap money.
There's nothing intrinsically illegal about lending money against potential future business. But if you were to do so without declaring such a thing to your sources of finance and insurance, then that would be rather different ? And to do such a thing under the guise of invoice discounting would be very odd.
Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
I actually think you are wrong about the Greens
They are growing in popularity here and across Europe
Underestimate the Greens at your peril
Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward
Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England and the Cambridgeshire Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
They could have no prospects in any parliamentary seats and still pose a huge problem for Labour.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
I would hope the government’s modeling is a bit more profound than mine. I’m a bored flint dildo knapper drinking tea and staring at the grey london skies in mild despair, pulling figures out of the air
Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.
Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
Yes.
Ron de Santis. He didn't just claim lockdowns were not needed, he demonstrated that they were not.
One day he might well be President of the United States, saying they were not.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
I would hope the government’s modeling is a bit more profound than mine. I’m a bored flint dildo knapper drinking tea and staring at the grey london skies in mild despair, pulling figures out of the air
For starters the number of vulnerable unvaccinated is dropping all the time. So I'd half your total to 140 a day.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
If the models were right they wouldn't have got Sweden so completely wrong. Yet here we are again. Same models. Roughly same assumptions. Round and round we go.
Have they managed to get around to building in seasonality as a parameter yet?
Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.
Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -
Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?
The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
Because they have no inner life and signalling their virtue to the world is the whole point of the exercise?
Or perhaps it's simply that you can't empathize with somebody getting upset about this issue and therefore you assume the upset is faked. That squares the circle for you.
See, we can both read minds.
I empathize with the original issue to the extent that I think Chauvin and other police officers who murder unarmed suspects should receive life sentences; in a US context, I'd be in favour of executing them for their gross betrayal of the public trust.
But the people who want to use that real, specific problem as a form of emotional blackmail to subvert our cultural institutions? Forget my empathy, they deserve only contempt.
This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.
Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.
Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"
But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.
Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
I think you are overanalysing it, and so too are those that are against it. Although not a Labour supporter, I quite like Starmer and I think a lot of people are underestimating him on the basis of polls in a strange time, but I think he looked a bit silly genuflecting. he needs a better spin doctor.
Not sure I am. I'm only suggesting there's a bit of this around in certain quarters.
I agree on the staged "kneeling in office" shot. Bit wooden and inauthentic looking.
Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.
Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
Yes.
Ron de Santis. He didn't just claim lockdowns were not needed, he demonstrated that they were not.
One day he might well be President of the United States, saying they were not.
Four Brits dead from Indian variant as experts (and Dominic Cummings) tell Boris to hit the brakes: PM urged to keep England OUT of pubs and delay Monday's unlocking
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
You need to take into account the CFR of the various groups - unvaccinated.
Not very many 85+ unvaccinated etc.
Otherwise the result in nonsense.
However, the CFR for the vulnerable will be considerably higher than 1%
1% is the CFR in a total population, not just ‘the vulnerable’
On the other hand, many of these people will have immunity to Covid, as they’ve already survived it.
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
Firstly, those people have chosen not to be vaccinated, secondly the vaccines prevent the spread of the virus even with just a single dose. The cumulative effect of that will reduce these numbers quite significantly. We can't go back into lockdown becuase a few idiots have rejected the vaccine.
Haven't you heard of seasonality or T cell immunity? Go away and learn some elementary facts about respiratory viruses. Also a retired doctor I know says that at medical school in 1964 not only was he taught these two subjects but also that viruses normally compete in the body, i.e. a person wouldn't be expected to have flu, COVID & a severe cold all at the same time. Just as we observed in the past year, much to some peoples' puzzlement.
This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.
Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.
Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"
But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.
Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
I think you are overanalysing it, and so too are those that are against it. Although not a Labour supporter, I quite like Starmer and I think a lot of people are underestimating him on the basis of polls in a strange time, but I think he looked a bit silly genuflecting. he needs a better spin doctor.
Not sure I am. I'm only suggesting there's a bit of this around in certain quarters.
I agree on the staged "kneeling in office" shot. Bit wooden and inauthentic looking.
It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket
It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux
Lockdown at sub-10 deaths a day would be ridiculous. It'd be adhered to even less than the November lockdown. It will not change my plans one bit. It will also not happen.
I don't see a countrywide lockdown.
I do see Boris trying to delay forthcoming changes in Bolton and some other places....
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch NEW: this chart is important
It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2
Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.
The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax
These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
(I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
I would hope the government’s modeling is a bit more profound than mine. I’m a bored flint dildo knapper drinking tea and staring at the grey london skies in mild despair, pulling figures out of the air
Sometimes I'm not convinced it is more profound to be frank. More C++ code involved but otherwise...
Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.
Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
You think the editor of the Spectator would put that out if he couldn't stand it up as they say?
Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
Bloody hell.
Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.
Didn't see that coming.
And Labour were saying London was one of their good results.....
This is genuinely hilarious. It's worth remembering that, just as the rest of the country often bears little resemblance to London, so too does London bear little resemblance to the rest of the country. London Tories, Greens and LDs are actually often competing for the same middle-class votes - and hence have similar priorities in office - while Labour absolutely dominates the poorer working class areas. It's actually not that surprising they couldn't come to an agreement, especially as London Labour is absolutely riddled with all the most objectionable aspects of the party in recent years. Albeit I wouldn't have predicted it in advance.
Four Brits dead from Indian variant as experts (and Dominic Cummings) tell Boris to hit the brakes: PM urged to keep England OUT of pubs and delay Monday's unlocking
4 dead on the roads yesterday (as all days) - Does cummings want to ban driving?
Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.
Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
You think the editor of the Spectator would put that out if he couldn't stand it up as they say?
Mr. Above, BLM have been very smart with their name/slogan. Lots of otherwise sensible people have taken their nonsense far more seriously than they should have.
Anyone kneeling for a cabal of race-baiting neo-Marxists is a damned fool. To be honest, it's the only thing (with judgement reserved on the yet to be revealed English devolution plans) Starmer has done that's annoyed me seriously.
If BLM is saying get on your knees, and you do it, you're kneeling for them. Saying you're doing it for the slogan is as convincing as a someone saying they're anti-racist while insisting white people are inherently racist.
Edited extra bit: Mr. kinabalu, you make the mistake of thinking that these CRT dimwits aren't racists.
Those who bang on about white privilege and white people being inherently guilty of racism are advocates, not opponents, of racism. The other day I posted leaked (and not denied, to my knowledge) plans by Disney that are alarming, focusing on equality of outcome, not opportunity. This stuff is being taken seriously by many who should know better.
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
It's not a real apology at all. A true apology is usually sufficient to wipe the slate clean. Most people are not particularly vindictive.
If you think you've done nothing wrong, it's better to say so, rather than offer such an excuse for an apology.
It is the left being pathologically sure that they are incapable of being racist.
It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket
It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux
Lockdown at sub-10 deaths a day would be ridiculous. It'd be adhered to even less than the November lockdown. It will not change my plans one bit. It will also not happen.
I don't see a countrywide lockdown.
I do see Boris trying to delay forthcoming changes in Bolton and some other places....
Bolton Tory council leader just on WATO. Local lockdowns don't work. Shifts the problem to the next borough. Which in GM often can be a pub just across the road. Burnham agrees. We had a Bolton lockdown in the summer. Led to a surge in Wigan.
Comments
A few weeks ago it was "OMG summer peak in deaths to be worse than January!"
So, I agree, progress...
Once this is all over, expect breathless media stories about new viruses found in China/wherever, most of which, as before, will never become big news stories. Everyone will want to get the scoop on the next Covid. There might even be more of those stories than articles about who will/should be next Labour leader!
Right now it’s “I am only relaying the concerns”.
As and when the Tower Hamlets NHS gets crushed, it’ll be “I have been warning on PB for MONTHS that the new variant would crush the NHS!”.
China - yet met with silence
As the NHS is a national system and as @Foxy described earlier in the crisis, patient transfer will help.
The Indian variant has been cooked up by the Serum Institute of India to boost their vaccine sales. Follow the money, innit?
Where's the facepalm emoji?
"“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”
If my language was inappropriate?
Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?
@lewis_goodall
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38m
This goes for anybody else for that matter. It’s a form of defence redolent of the Corbyn years- a qualified apology rooted in the idea that as a profoundly anti-racist person, it’s impossible for it to be a true example of racism, inadvertent or otherwise.
Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.
Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
For anything they should be personally sorry for it is "I am sorry, but....". A little like when someone says "I am not racist but...", or the thing I heard on a number of occasions from Glasgow taxi drivers back in the 90's "I don't really hate the English but..."
Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"
But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.
Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
Under 40 21.51%
40-44 56.29%
45-49 72.73%
50-54 83.29%
55-59 86.17%
60-64 88.56%
65-69 91.46%
70-74 94.05%
75-79 95.13%
80+ 94.97%
Numbers unjabbed - using NIMS data
Under 40 19,260,277
40-44 1,790,882
45-49 1,085,301
50-54 703,903
55-59 562,698
60-64 394,282
65-69 246,850
70-74 171,279
75-79 101,661
80+ 142,568
If we take the "especially vulnerable to hospitalisation group" as "over 40", that gives us 5,199,424 people un-vaccinated and in that group
One choice quote:
Sweden ended up with less than half the modelled death toll.
Haven't verified that, but other than they've not 'ended' up anything yet, if we stop the clock now then the UK ended up with under 1/3 of the modelled death toll (which was 500k in do nothing - we're at around 1/4 if you use the 28 days from covid test stat). Hmmm
10C. Leaden skies. Again
Our weather is broken. The gulf stream has given up
(It really has:)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210225113357.htm
Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.
Didn't see that coming.
These claims simply don't hold water. Once again I'm sure when we see the detail of the inputs into this model it will have ridiculous assumptions that don't pass the sniff test.
See my piece on PB last night!!
But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.
It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
For example, in the UK there is an issue with deaths in custody. We have various forward positioned paramedics already - station some at police custodial sites.
Prompt medical attention will probably result in a number of black men not dying. As well as a number of people from other communities. And provide non-police witnesses to what happened.
Three years before they seek votes.
It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket
It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux
(Yes, I take your point. Things in America get more attention. But it applies to everything in America, not just racism. That's what you get for dominating the modern world like they have.)
£500m of guarantees. Damn.
A demo about Chechnya will get a F^&k Off! from Putin (if he notices). It might get you a present of perfume....
*checks weather*
*buys ticket*
1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...
I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.
On second thoughts, no I don't.
You're defending this kind of fake worst case scenario modelling but it exists to serve political aims.
If you think you've done nothing wrong, it's better to say so, rather than offer such an excuse for an apology.
In July, a band of rednecks and rocket scientists will launch the largest rocket in human history on a test flight. Which they will weld together in a Texas swamp. The first stage of which isn't built yet. For a total cost probably less than anyone else's space launch.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53846.0
Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/
If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.
1% will die. 25,000 people.
Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)
25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible
So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
Not very many 85+ unvaccinated etc.
Otherwise the result in nonsense.
But if you were to do so without declaring such a thing to your sources of finance and insurance, then that would be rather different ?
And to do such a thing under the guise of invoice discounting would be very odd.
If so, all modelling is entirely flawed.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1393112607133941764
Ron de Santis. He didn't just claim lockdowns were not needed, he demonstrated that they were not.
One day he might well be President of the United States, saying they were not.
Have they managed to get around to building in seasonality as a parameter yet?
But the people who want to use that real, specific problem as a form of emotional blackmail to subvert our cultural institutions? Forget my empathy, they deserve only contempt.
I agree on the staged "kneeling in office" shot. Bit wooden and inauthentic looking.
I mean we are publishing data of all other kinds.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9578215/Vaccines-minister-Nadhim-Zahawi-says-jab-programme-flex-tackle-Indian-variant.html
Four Brits dead from Indian variant as experts (and Dominic Cummings) tell Boris to hit the brakes: PM urged to keep England OUT of pubs and delay Monday's unlocking
1% is the CFR in a total population, not just ‘the vulnerable’
On the other hand, many of these people will have immunity to Covid, as they’ve already survived it.
This epidemiology stuff is tricky
Bit wooden and inauthentic looking.
I do see Boris trying to delay forthcoming changes in Bolton and some other places....
We had a Bolton lockdown in the summer. Led to a surge in Wigan.