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LAB gets its best Westminster by-election performance for five years at Airdrie & Shotts – political

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  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    At least the efforts you are now having to go to in order to produce yet another forecast of doom are increasing. It’s a shame we can’t make that into some sort of measure of our progress out of the pandemic.
    The doom (from the media) is now of the if A and then there could be NHS problems unless there are local restrictions.

    A few weeks ago it was "OMG summer peak in deaths to be worse than January!"

    So, I agree, progress...

    Once this is all over, expect breathless media stories about new viruses found in China/wherever, most of which, as before, will never become big news stories. Everyone will want to get the scoop on the next Covid. There might even be more of those stories than articles about who will/should be next Labour leader!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,442
    dixiedean said:

    BigRich said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    The answer to one of his questions - Is the rise in cases in the non-vaccinated groups?

    image

    We have a rise in 0-14, 15-44 and a barely noticeable rise for 45-64. Otherwise - a fall in cases.

    That seems quite conclusive to me. The rise in cases is occurring among the unvaccinated cohorts.
    The quite sensible idea to serge first jobs in areas with outbakes, e.g. Bolton, seems like an exelant idea to me, certainly something that should be given a go, but I thought I would do some maths, on pausing all second Jabs and sprinting to the finish on first Jab:

    35,906,671 adults have had a job, that's 68.2% meaning that there are 52,649,078 people eligible for the Jab.

    Opinion poling suggest that 84% of people have had it or wish to have it, so that's: 44,225,225 people

    Therefore there are still 8,318,554 who wish to have the Jab but haven't yet.

    This last week we have given on average, 138,929 first jabs and 371,321 second jabs, or 510,250 jabs a day.

    Which means we could give everybody who wishes to have one first jab one in 16.3 days, or by the end of the month in laymen's terms.

    Yes this would mean delaying the second job for some people by 16 days, but is it significantly reduces the total spread, it would help protect everybody, and as the most venerable have all had there second job now, it seems prudent.

    Separately but also: If we extended it to 16 and 17 year olds, that's about 2 million more for another 4 days, it would mean that they will have all had there second does, at the start of September, just before they go to university or back collage.
    Doesn't going over 12 (?) weeks between jabs mean you have to start the process all over again?
    Canada is doing 16 weeks. There is no magic number of weeks that is demonstrably better than all other numbers of weeks. 12 weeks is arbitrary just as the 4 weeks used in the trials was.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    I keep reading this supposition too.

    But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.

    Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
    .. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them

    ..So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?

    Just a thought

    We know your modus operandi, young Sean.

    Right now it’s “I am only relaying the concerns”.

    As and when the Tower Hamlets NHS gets crushed, it’ll be “I have been warning on PB for MONTHS that the new variant would crush the NHS!”.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    I keep reading this supposition too.

    But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.

    Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
    Good questions. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them

    One guess: the numbers of unvaxxed vary significantly by area and ethnicity. Tower Hamlets has thousands of unvaxxed, Teignmouth does not. So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?

    Just a thought

    If they've chosen not to get vaccinated then that's on them.

    Keep offering them the vaccine, but if they want to take their chances against the Indian variant unvaccinated then so be it. We can't be kept hostage by antivaxxers.
    That would be fine - and I agree - if we weren’t all sharing the same NHS. A million stupid anti vaxxers with Covid can fuck up the NHS for all of us, not just themselves

    Make the jabs mandatory?
    I think a local overwhelming of NHS seems far more likely (assuming big increase in transmission of Indian variant) than across the board.

    As the NHS is a national system and as @Foxy described earlier in the crisis, patient transfer will help.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243
    Crackpot conspiracy theory of the day (a colleague just sent an image, Facebook, I think). Paraphrasing:

    The Indian variant has been cooked up by the Serum Institute of India to boost their vaccine sales. Follow the money, innit?

    Where's the facepalm emoji?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    I keep reading this supposition too.

    But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.

    Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
    .. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them

    ..So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?

    Just a thought

    We know your modus operandi, young Sean. Right now it’s “I am only relaying the concerns”.

    As and when the Tower Hamlets NHS gets crushed, it’ll be “I have been warning on PB for MONTHS that the new variant would crush the NHS!”.
    Maybe it is a plot line for a new page turner that will make a Jeffrey Archer novel look like a candidate for the Whitbread
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    38m
    This goes for anybody else for that matter. It’s a form of defence redolent of the Corbyn years- a qualified apology rooted in the idea that as a profoundly anti-racist person, it’s impossible for it to be a true example of racism, inadvertent or otherwise.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,699
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    I keep reading this supposition too.

    But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.

    Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
    Good questions. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them

    One guess: the numbers of unvaxxed vary significantly by area and ethnicity. Tower Hamlets has thousands of unvaxxed, Teignmouth does not. So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?

    Just a thought

    If they've chosen not to get vaccinated then that's on them.

    Keep offering them the vaccine, but if they want to take their chances against the Indian variant unvaccinated then so be it. We can't be kept hostage by antivaxxers.
    That would be fine - and I agree - if we weren’t all sharing the same NHS. A million stupid anti vaxxers with Covid can fuck up the NHS for all of us, not just themselves

    Make the jabs mandatory?
    Using vans inscribed VACCINATION ENFORCEMENT in big, bold caps?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Selebian said:

    Crackpot conspiracy theory of the day (a colleague just sent an image, Facebook, I think). Paraphrasing:

    The Indian variant has been cooked up by the Serum Institute of India to boost their vaccine sales. Follow the money, innit?

    Where's the facepalm emoji?

    🤦‍♂️
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited May 2021

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    YouGov

    Con 45 (+2)

    Lab 30 (-3)

    Greens 8 (+2)

    Other party shares not listed.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-and-cameron-sign-off-after-nightmare-weeks-rttx0qj99

    Labour on 30

    How has it come to this
    It's been a long time coming.
    Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
    I actually think you are wrong about the Greens

    They are growing in popularity here and across Europe

    Underestimate the Greens at your peril
    Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
    But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward

    Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
    You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England and the Cambridgeshire Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Howard Beckett:

    "“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”


    If my language was inappropriate?

    Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?

    Oh, they do, just things that they are sorry for what other people did. I am very sorry (on behalf of everyone else) about the Irish Famine , slavery, Ballymurphy.

    For anything they should be personally sorry for it is "I am sorry, but....". A little like when someone says "I am not racist but...", or the thing I heard on a number of occasions from Glasgow taxi drivers back in the 90's "I don't really hate the English but..."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    edited May 2021
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The knee -

    This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.

    Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
    Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.

    Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"

    But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.

    Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,596

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    I keep reading this supposition too.

    But it doesn't make any sense, and seems to be driven by the doommongers who want us locked up for our own safety, rather than actual science.

    Given a) the impact on R that the herd effect will have, b) the pre-exissting antibodies/t-cell immunity amongst many of the young who haven't been vaccinated but have had covid and c) that the vast majority of under 40s who get Covid don't get anywhere near a hospital, how would it crush the NHS?
    Good questions. I was merely relaying the scientists’ concerns, not necessarily agreeing with them

    One guess: the numbers of unvaxxed vary significantly by area and ethnicity. Tower Hamlets has thousands of unvaxxed, Teignmouth does not. So the Indian variant could overwhelm the NHS locally, if not nationally?

    Just a thought

    If they've chosen not to get vaccinated then that's on them.

    Keep offering them the vaccine, but if they want to take their chances against the Indian variant unvaccinated then so be it. We can't be kept hostage by antivaxxers.
    That would be fine - and I agree - if we weren’t all sharing the same NHS. A million stupid anti vaxxers with Covid can fuck up the NHS for all of us, not just themselves

    Make the jabs mandatory?
    I think a local overwhelming of NHS seems far more likely (assuming big increase in transmission of Indian variant) than across the board.

    As the NHS is a national system and as @Foxy described earlier in the crisis, patient transfer will help.
    Percentages with a first jab - using NIMS data

    Under 40 21.51%
    40-44 56.29%
    45-49 72.73%
    50-54 83.29%
    55-59 86.17%
    60-64 88.56%
    65-69 91.46%
    70-74 94.05%
    75-79 95.13%
    80+ 94.97%

    Numbers unjabbed - using NIMS data

    Under 40 19,260,277
    40-44 1,790,882
    45-49 1,085,301
    50-54 703,903
    55-59 562,698
    60-64 394,282
    65-69 246,850
    70-74 171,279
    75-79 101,661
    80+ 142,568

    If we take the "especially vulnerable to hospitalisation group" as "over 40", that gives us 5,199,424 people un-vaccinated and in that group
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Labour really aren't getting any luck at the moment. The news about Wes Streeting's cancer is clearly personally horrible, but it also robs the party of one of its brighter younger talents.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243
    edited May 2021

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/

    This barnstorming article by Fraser Nelson is free from paywall until 1:30pm. I find it hard to disagree with a single word of it.

    It includes the astonishing claim that scientists at SAGE who demurred from lockdown orthodoxy were threatened with the sack.

    Not sure why I'm bothering, but this echoes what many of us have said on here for a long time. People do self lock down, they just tend to do it a bit later and to a lesser extent.

    One choice quote:
    Sweden ended up with less than half the modelled death toll.
    Haven't verified that, but other than they've not 'ended' up anything yet, if we stop the clock now then the UK ended up with under 1/3 of the modelled death toll (which was 500k in do nothing - we're at around 1/4 if you use the 28 days from covid test stat). Hmmm
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    There is far too much reliance on a small model number of models rather than actual real world data thats for sure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Bozza to hold Covid briefing at 5 as, and I quote the ubiquitous Mail Indian variant grips nation
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    edited May 2021
    May 14. 1pm. London

    10C. Leaden skies. Again

    Our weather is broken. The gulf stream has given up

    (It really has:)

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210225113357.htm
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    YouGov

    Con 45 (+2)

    Lab 30 (-3)

    Greens 8 (+2)

    Other party shares not listed.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-and-cameron-sign-off-after-nightmare-weeks-rttx0qj99

    Labour on 30

    How has it come to this
    It's been a long time coming.
    Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
    I actually think you are wrong about the Greens

    They are growing in popularity here and across Europe

    Underestimate the Greens at your peril
    Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
    But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward

    Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
    You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
    At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation

    Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    edited May 2021
    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    I note that councils have been empowered to override the ending of the mask mandate within schools, and locally to me both Kirklees and Calderdale have done so.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,699

    Howard Beckett:

    "“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”


    If my language was inappropriate?

    Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?

    Oh, they do, just things that they are sorry for what other people did. I am very sorry (on behalf of everyone else) about the Irish Famine , slavery, Ballymurphy.

    For anything they should be personally sorry for it is "I am sorry, but....". A little like when someone says "I am not racist but...", or the thing I heard on a number of occasions from Glasgow taxi drivers back in the 90's "I don't really hate the English but..."
    Sincere public apologies usually take the form "I'm truly sorry if anyone was offended by .... " (mass murder, for example).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The knee -

    This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.

    Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
    Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.

    Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"

    But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.

    Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
    I think you are overanalysing it, and so too are those that are against it. Although not a Labour supporter, I quite like Starmer and I think a lot of people are underestimating him on the basis of polls in a strange time, but I think he looked a bit silly genuflecting. he needs a better spin doctor.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Pulpstar said:

    Bozza to hold Covid briefing at 5 as, and I quote the ubiquitous Mail Indian variant grips nation

    If the silly b@£$%^d had closed down the airports to Air India etc PDQ, instead of giving FOUR days notice.........
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Bozza to hold Covid briefing at 5 as, and I quote the ubiquitous Mail Indian variant grips nation

    If the silly b@£$%^d had closed down the airports to Air India etc PDQ, instead of giving FOUR days notice.........
    No doubt he will fully apologise tonight at 5pm and accept full responsibility for keeping the border open.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    What also bothers me about these new doom forecasts is that they lead with headlines like "1000 deaths per day" but don't specify how that will happen and which age groups will be affected. We have good evidence that this variant doesn't evade vaccines and we know 95%+ of groups 1-9 are vaccinated either partially or fully and we also know that people under 50 have very low mortality rates and around 40% of them have got acquired immunity or have been vaccinated partially or fully.

    These claims simply don't hold water. Once again I'm sure when we see the detail of the inputs into this model it will have ridiculous assumptions that don't pass the sniff test.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited May 2021
    ... said:

    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.

    Curious strategic move for the Greens and LibDems who might have otherwise been positioning themselves for disgruntled Labour votes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
    Eaten the Brexit vote whole. Time to start on the LDs and Greens. Full marks for ambition.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Howard Beckett:

    "“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”


    If my language was inappropriate?

    Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?

    Oh, they do, just things that they are sorry for what other people did. I am very sorry (on behalf of everyone else) about the Irish Famine , slavery, Ballymurphy.

    For anything they should be personally sorry for it is "I am sorry, but....". A little like when someone says "I am not racist but...", or the thing I heard on a number of occasions from Glasgow taxi drivers back in the 90's "I don't really hate the English but..."
    Sincere public apologies usually take the form "I'm truly sorry if anyone was offended by .... " (mass murder, for example).
    It would have been an interesting defence at Nuremburg : "I am sorry if anyone was offended by my war crimes, I really didn't mean to cause offence"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
    Echoes of what might happen in Germany soon?

    See my piece on PB last night!!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,596

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    YouGov

    Con 45 (+2)

    Lab 30 (-3)

    Greens 8 (+2)

    Other party shares not listed.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-and-cameron-sign-off-after-nightmare-weeks-rttx0qj99

    Labour on 30

    How has it come to this
    It's been a long time coming.
    Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
    I actually think you are wrong about the Greens

    They are growing in popularity here and across Europe

    Underestimate the Greens at your peril
    Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
    But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward

    Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
    You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
    At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation

    Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
    Why split? What about some policies that actually fix problems that everyone can agree on?

    For example, in the UK there is an issue with deaths in custody. We have various forward positioned paramedics already - station some at police custodial sites.

    Prompt medical attention will probably result in a number of black men not dying. As well as a number of people from other communities. And provide non-police witnesses to what happened.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    If it wasn't for the sad news about Wes Streeting I'd be chortling away at this news. Has anyone told IanB2?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
    Entering an alliance with the Tories will not help the Greens nationally.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Howard Beckett:

    "“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”

    If my language was inappropriate?

    Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?

    "I'm sorry, I was wrong" covers most stuff, and sounds a lot less stupid.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    There is far too much reliance on a small model number of models rather than actual real world data thats for sure.
    The trouble is that by the time you have real world data, it's a bit late. If you want to predict, you need models (which should be sceptically assessed, updated with updated info and assumptions tested as far as possible).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Jonathan said:

    ... said:

    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.

    Curious strategic move for the Greens and LibDems who might have otherwise been positioning themselves for disgruntled Labour votes.
    Not really. They've positioned themselves for Committee chairs.
    Three years before they seek votes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    edited May 2021
    Is Boris going to delay unlockdown?

    It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket

    It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    dixiedean said:

    BigRich said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    The answer to one of his questions - Is the rise in cases in the non-vaccinated groups?

    image

    We have a rise in 0-14, 15-44 and a barely noticeable rise for 45-64. Otherwise - a fall in cases.

    That seems quite conclusive to me. The rise in cases is occurring among the unvaccinated cohorts.
    The quite sensible idea to serge first jobs in areas with outbakes, e.g. Bolton, seems like an exelant idea to me, certainly something that should be given a go, but I thought I would do some maths, on pausing all second Jabs and sprinting to the finish on first Jab:

    35,906,671 adults have had a job, that's 68.2% meaning that there are 52,649,078 people eligible for the Jab.

    Opinion poling suggest that 84% of people have had it or wish to have it, so that's: 44,225,225 people

    Therefore there are still 8,318,554 who wish to have the Jab but haven't yet.

    This last week we have given on average, 138,929 first jabs and 371,321 second jabs, or 510,250 jabs a day.

    Which means we could give everybody who wishes to have one first jab one in 16.3 days, or by the end of the month in laymen's terms.

    Yes this would mean delaying the second job for some people by 16 days, but is it significantly reduces the total spread, it would help protect everybody, and as the most venerable have all had there second job now, it seems prudent.

    Separately but also: If we extended it to 16 and 17 year olds, that's about 2 million more for another 4 days, it would mean that they will have all had there second does, at the start of September, just before they go to university or back collage.
    Doesn't going over 12 (?) weeks between jabs mean you have to start the process all over again?
    The only studies so far show 12 weeks is better than 4 weeks. No evidence other than in pharma marketing materials that 13 or 14 weeks suddenly is worse than nothing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, gosh, aren't you a fiery sausage?

    Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.

    Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -

    Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?

    The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
    You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
    Many reasons. You can be so angry about something that you just have to let it out (like Morris et al with BLM and "the knee"). You can hope that if you take part in something communal you might, in your small way, be making a difference. In public it's sending more of a message than if you keep it all to yourself. It's getting it out there. And these things don't stop at national borders. Most of the concerning events that happen in the world happen outside the UK, after all and thankfully.
    Why arent you making a public gesture for the uighars then? Or gays in certain eastern european and muslim countries or....the list goes on....would it be because usa ?
    I don't actually do many demos. The last one I attended was the "save the Coffee Cup" (cafe) in Hampstead. And it worked!

    (Yes, I take your point. Things in America get more attention. But it applies to everything in America, not just racism. That's what you get for dominating the modern world like they have.)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
    Looks more like 'gave up control'. LibDems and or Greens would have done a deal, it seems, but Labour said no.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    With the right leader and a tack to the centre they could do well.

    We won't do this. I know the party. Fuck your centre.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    And in another completely unexpected turn of events: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57114850

    £500m of guarantees. Damn.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    YouGov

    Con 45 (+2)

    Lab 30 (-3)

    Greens 8 (+2)

    Other party shares not listed.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-and-cameron-sign-off-after-nightmare-weeks-rttx0qj99

    Labour on 30

    How has it come to this
    It's been a long time coming.
    Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
    I actually think you are wrong about the Greens

    They are growing in popularity here and across Europe

    Underestimate the Greens at your peril
    Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
    But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward

    Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
    You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
    At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation

    Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
    Why split? What about some policies that actually fix problems that everyone can agree on?

    For example, in the UK there is an issue with deaths in custody. We have various forward positioned paramedics already - station some at police custodial sites.

    Prompt medical attention will probably result in a number of black men not dying. As well as a number of people from other communities. And provide non-police witnesses to what happened.
    Do enough deaths occur in custody that they outweigh the number of people that the paramedic would save if he wasn't tied to a police station?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
    And Labour were saying London was one of their good results.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    ... said:

    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.

    Curious strategic move for the Greens and LibDems who might have otherwise been positioning themselves for disgruntled Labour votes.
    Not really. They've positioned themselves for Committee chairs.
    Three years before they seek votes.
    Well, if I were a Labour councillor dealing with a Green threat I might be pointing out the London Green-Tory alliance to waiving Labour supporters, saying vote Green, get Blue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,596
    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, gosh, aren't you a fiery sausage?

    Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.

    Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -

    Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?

    The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
    You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
    Many reasons. You can be so angry about something that you just have to let it out (like Morris et al with BLM and "the knee"). You can hope that if you take part in something communal you might, in your small way, be making a difference. In public it's sending more of a message than if you keep it all to yourself. It's getting it out there. And these things don't stop at national borders. Most of the concerning events that happen in the world happen outside the UK, after all and thankfully.
    Why arent you making a public gesture for the uighars then? Or gays in certain eastern european and muslim countries or....the list goes on....would it be because usa ?
    I don't actually do many demos. The last one I attended was the "save the Coffee Cup" (cafe) in Hampstead. And it worked!

    (Yes, I take your point. Things in America get more attention. But it applies to everything in America, not just racism. That's what you get for dominating the modern world like they have.)
    It is also to do with the idea that the USA might respond positively.

    A demo about Chechnya will get a F^&k Off! from Putin (if he notices). It might get you a present of perfume....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Jonathan said:

    Labour really aren't getting any luck at the moment. The news about Wes Streeting's cancer is clearly personally horrible, but it also robs the party of one of its brighter younger talents.

    If it was discovered by chance because he had another condition, hopefully it won’t have spread beyond the kidney, in which case his survival chances are excellent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Portugal allows UK travellers from Monday.

    *checks weather*

    *buys ticket*
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,596
    Pagan2 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    YouGov

    Con 45 (+2)

    Lab 30 (-3)

    Greens 8 (+2)

    Other party shares not listed.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-and-cameron-sign-off-after-nightmare-weeks-rttx0qj99

    Labour on 30

    How has it come to this
    It's been a long time coming.
    Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
    I actually think you are wrong about the Greens

    They are growing in popularity here and across Europe

    Underestimate the Greens at your peril
    Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
    But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward

    Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
    You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
    At my age Justin I have no need for wishful thinking but I do try to state my opinions fairly and to be honest if you think everything will be OK for labour then you are blind sided to what is actually happening right now in front of the nation

    Labour really need to split and leave the Corbynites in the wilderness and seek common ground with the lib dems and greens
    Why split? What about some policies that actually fix problems that everyone can agree on?

    For example, in the UK there is an issue with deaths in custody. We have various forward positioned paramedics already - station some at police custodial sites.

    Prompt medical attention will probably result in a number of black men not dying. As well as a number of people from other communities. And provide non-police witnesses to what happened.
    Do enough deaths occur in custody that they outweigh the number of people that the paramedic would save if he wasn't tied to a police station?
    I meant base them out of a police station. So that there will, nearly always, be some medics around.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Leon said:

    Portugal allows UK travellers from Monday.

    *checks weather*

    *buys ticket*

    Be just and proper were Boris to stand up at 5 pm and immediately close the borders.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    DavidL said:

    And in another completely unexpected turn of events: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57114850

    £500m of guarantees. Damn.

    ...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG.
    However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...


    I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.

    On second thoughts, no I don't.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MaxPB said:

    What also bothers me about these new doom forecasts is that they lead with headlines like "1000 deaths per day" but don't specify how that will happen and which age groups will be affected. We have good evidence that this variant doesn't evade vaccines and we know 95%+ of groups 1-9 are vaccinated either partially or fully and we also know that people under 50 have very low mortality rates and around 40% of them have got acquired immunity or have been vaccinated partially or fully.

    These claims simply don't hold water. Once again I'm sure when we see the detail of the inputs into this model it will have ridiculous assumptions that don't pass the sniff test.

    We all know you are correct on this. The question is do the government?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    There is far too much reliance on a small model number of models rather than actual real world data thats for sure.
    The trouble is that by the time you have real world data, it's a bit late. If you want to predict, you need models (which should be sceptically assessed, updated with updated info and assumptions tested as far as possible).
    But you need to base the inputs on observed data and reasonable extrapolation. You don't put in 45% of people having neutralising antibodies after we know that 55% of people have them according to real world data.

    You're defending this kind of fake worst case scenario modelling but it exists to serve political aims.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Howard Beckett:

    "“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”


    If my language was inappropriate?

    Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?

    It's not a real apology at all. A true apology is usually sufficient to wipe the slate clean. Most people are not particularly vindictive.

    If you think you've done nothing wrong, it's better to say so, rather than offer such an excuse for an apology.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    And in another completely unexpected turn of events: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57114850

    £500m of guarantees. Damn.

    ...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG.
    However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...


    I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.

    On second thoughts, no I don't.
    It’s almost an inevitable consequence of ultracheap money.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,596
    And in unrelated news......

    In July, a band of rednecks and rocket scientists will launch the largest rocket in human history on a test flight. Which they will weld together in a Texas swamp. The first stage of which isn't built yet. For a total cost probably less than anyone else's space launch.

    https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53846.0
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Bloody hell.

    Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
    They've signed a deal with the devil. So much for the progressive alliance.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, gosh, aren't you a fiery sausage?

    Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.

    Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -

    Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?

    The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
    You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
    Many reasons. You can be so angry about something that you just have to let it out (like Morris et al with BLM and "the knee"). You can hope that if you take part in something communal you might, in your small way, be making a difference. In public it's sending more of a message than if you keep it all to yourself. It's getting it out there. And these things don't stop at national borders. Most of the concerning events that happen in the world happen outside the UK, after all and thankfully.
    Why arent you making a public gesture for the uighars then? Or gays in certain eastern european and muslim countries or....the list goes on....would it be because usa ?
    I don't actually do many demos. The last one I attended was the "save the Coffee Cup" (cafe) in Hampstead. And it worked!

    (Yes, I take your point. Things in America get more attention. But it applies to everything in America, not just racism. That's what you get for dominating the modern world like they have.)
    It is also to do with the idea that the USA might respond positively.

    A demo about Chechnya will get a F^&k Off! from Putin (if he notices). It might get you a present of perfume....
    America isnt going to respond to it because the only people that could do something about it are the police themselves and they are so used to not having any accountability that the odds are they will do nothing. Its not just a black issue....american police forces are totally and utterly unaccountable and the police unions are strong enough to deter politicians from doing much either
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Bloody hell.

    Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/

    Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    Firstly, those people have chosen not to be vaccinated, secondly the vaccines prevent the spread of the virus even with just a single dose. The cumulative effect of that will reduce these numbers quite significantly. We can't go back into lockdown becuase a few idiots have rejected the vaccine.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    And in another completely unexpected turn of events: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57114850

    £500m of guarantees. Damn.

    ...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG.
    However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...


    I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.

    On second thoughts, no I don't.
    Where exactly is Mr Gupta at the moment - I suspect it's a country with no extradition treaty with the UK
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Is Boris going to delay unlockdown?

    It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket

    It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux

    Lockdown at sub-10 deaths a day would be ridiculous. It'd be adhered to even less than the November lockdown. It will not change my plans one bit. It will also not happen.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,596
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    You need to take into account the CFR of the various groups - unvaccinated.

    Not very many 85+ unvaccinated etc.

    Otherwise the result in nonsense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+2)
    LAB: 30% (-3)
    GRN: 8% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (-)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov
    Chgs. w/ 05 May


    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1393112175699443713?s=20

    SKS fans please explain.
    Not a SKS fan but this is Corbyn's toxic legacy.

    Very hard to get rid of the shit and the smell out of the carpet after someone takes a massive dump on it.
    You clearly haven't been telephone canvassing for Labour.

    Corbyn doesn't get a mention

    Lack of policies lack of charisma lack of warmth lack of being on my side get plenty.

    Main thing to make a return They are all the same
    The thing I don't get is this - there are oceans of Social Democratic policies out there. That would warm the hearts of everyone from Corbynistas to the wet end of the Conservatives. That's lots and lots of votes.

    Yes, I know. This is what Blair did. And hence Evul.

    But why not?
    Did Blair set out lots of Labour policies prior to the 1997 election campaign? I was only 5 years old at the time so obviously I don't know. It seems that in modern times the opposition only set out policies when the manifesto gets released.
    Blair did not set out a substantive raft of policies, no. It was a timid offering. The anodyne pledge card. Sticking to Tory spending plans for 2 years. Do not frighten the horses.

    The 97 landslide was built on a feeling. Time for a change. Tired sleazy Tories. THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER.

    It worked a D:ream. The Conservative government was flushed away like a turd despite the economy looking (and being) quite rosy.

    Which just goes to show.
    Indeed - its just not healthy to have one party in permanent power, whether that is the Tories in England, the SNP in Scotland or Labour in Wales. People become complacent, more interested in fighting their petty squabbles, lose sight of the public at large. Labour in England needs to start remembering that its no good having the best policies in the world if no one will vote you into power. How much do they hate Blair that showed them that the country was never going to be as socialist as the party?
    I agree. One party rule is the pits. And especially if that one party are the Tories.

    On 'socialism', I think we need a reset. The economy being substantially nationalized is a dead idea. But policies to devolve wealth and opportunity away from those rolling in it to those starved of it are more needed than ever. For me, this is modern relevant socialism. New socialism if you like.

    So I'd like to see us keep the radical spirit of the Corbyn era but (sorry Owen) ditch its clumsy, old fashioned policy programme. Come up with policies that will work in practice to achieve the above objective, a really significant devolution of wealth and opportunity.

    And present this with real passion.

    New Socialism. New Britain. New Socialism. New Britain.
    Just maybe Boris has stolen your clothes !!!!!!!
    Hmm. Not sure about that.

    To deliver on Leveling Up, this government must enact some big radical polices to ensure that the left behind people in left behind places narrow the gap in a significant and sustainable way with those more fortunate.

    If they do this, I'll applaud them, uncomfortable as it will be for me - but I have a feeling I'll be spared.
    At least they are trying havent seen any labour policies that would help the left behind even in Corbyn years....plenty of policies that would hurt the left behind though
    We'll see how serious the Tories are about it in due course. As for saying you haven't seen any Labour policies targeted at helping the less well off - this can only be because any manifesto of theirs that has ever managed to get in front of you has been consigned, unexamined, to the bin. I imagine you pride yourself on exactly that approach.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    ping said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    And in another completely unexpected turn of events: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57114850

    £500m of guarantees. Damn.

    ...The Financial Times has claimed that one of Mr Gupta's companies had sent Greensill invoices for business it had supposedly done with four European metal companies. But those European companies told the newspaper they had not dealt with GFG.
    However, GFG said the invoices were for products it expected to perhaps sell in the future and that the financial arrangement was common for many of Greensill's clients...


    I wish I could discount for cash invoices on business I expected... maybe.. to transact some time in the undetermined future.

    On second thoughts, no I don't.
    It’s almost an inevitable consequence of ultracheap money.
    There's nothing intrinsically illegal about lending money against potential future business.
    But if you were to do so without declaring such a thing to your sources of finance and insurance, then that would be rather different ?
    And to do such a thing under the guise of invoice discounting would be very odd.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Is it true we are not collating vaccinated/unvaccinated cases and hospitalisations data?
    If so, all modelling is entirely flawed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    YouGov

    Con 45 (+2)

    Lab 30 (-3)

    Greens 8 (+2)

    Other party shares not listed.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-and-cameron-sign-off-after-nightmare-weeks-rttx0qj99

    Labour on 30

    How has it come to this
    It's been a long time coming.
    Yougov had Labour on 29% a few weeks ago. 8% for the Greens very unlikely in a GE. Other polls now have Labour on 34% . Factor in a post-Hartlepool effect likely to be short term.
    I actually think you are wrong about the Greens

    They are growing in popularity here and across Europe

    Underestimate the Greens at your peril
    Other pollsters do not have them at that level. The Greens - like the LDs - flatter to deceive at Local Elections. Here in Norwich they were very strong a few years back but their success failed to translate into support at parliamentary elections.
    But Justin times are changing and fast and looking back does not relate to looking forward

    Labour are in an existential crisis and you seem to be in denial
    You appear to be engaged - not for the first time - in much wishful thinking. Labour has had a tough period in the wake of the self inflicted Hartlepool wound , and- as I have myself stated on here - Starmer fully deserves a great deal of flak for that. The other election results were more mixed but received less media coverage - particularly Labour successes in West of England and the Cambridgeshire Mayoralties - and ,of course , Wales.I now hold serious doubts as to Starmer's political 'nous' or antennae - but that said Labour's poll ratings remain well above what we saw under Corbyn during most of 2019. Less than six months ago the party was recording regular poll leads - and I expect that to happen again when the 'vaccine bounce' recedes. To a large extent the Greens have eclipsed the LDs as the NOTA option in Local Elections. In very few parliamentary seats do they have serious prospects.
    They could have no prospects in any parliamentary seats and still pose a huge problem for Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
    I would hope the government’s modeling is a bit more profound than mine. I’m a bored flint dildo knapper drinking tea and staring at the grey london skies in mild despair, pulling figures out of the air
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Adonis thinks it's "time for Blair". It's like someone saying during the IDS era that the answer to the Tories' problems was to bring back Thatcher.

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1393112607133941764
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2021
    RobD said:

    Bloody hell.

    Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/

    Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
    Yes.

    Ron de Santis. He didn't just claim lockdowns were not needed, he demonstrated that they were not.

    One day he might well be President of the United States, saying they were not.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    dixiedean said:

    Is it true we are not collating vaccinated/unvaccinated cases and hospitalisations data?
    If so, all modelling is entirely flawed.

    We are, it's just not being made public.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
    I would hope the government’s modeling is a bit more profound than mine. I’m a bored flint dildo knapper drinking tea and staring at the grey london skies in mild despair, pulling figures out of the air
    For starters the number of vulnerable unvaccinated is dropping all the time. So I'd half your total to 140 a day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    If the models were right they wouldn't have got Sweden so completely wrong. Yet here we are again. Same models. Roughly same assumptions. Round and round we go.

    Have they managed to get around to building in seasonality as a parameter yet?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, gosh, aren't you a fiery sausage?

    Oh yes. And a curious one too. Very curious. I genuinely wish to understand why somebody would be so absolutely LIVID about people taking a knee for BLM.

    Couple of questions if I may and you're not running -

    Assume a person (here) is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America and wishes to show it in a manner that others can see. Is there a way in which this could be done that would meet with your approval?

    The gesture itself. Does the kneeling aspect make it worse for you? Eg if it was upright and clenched fist would that be less offensive? Or maybe just singing a song or something, no body parts involvement at all?
    You have largely answered your own question: Why would a person (here) who is genuinely appalled by Floyd type happenings in America wish to show it in a manner that others can see?
    Because they have no inner life and signalling their virtue to the world is the whole point of the exercise?
    Or perhaps it's simply that you can't empathize with somebody getting upset about this issue and therefore you assume the upset is faked. That squares the circle for you.

    See, we can both read minds.
    I empathize with the original issue to the extent that I think Chauvin and other police officers who murder unarmed suspects should receive life sentences; in a US context, I'd be in favour of executing them for their gross betrayal of the public trust.

    But the people who want to use that real, specific problem as a form of emotional blackmail to subvert our cultural institutions? Forget my empathy, they deserve only contempt.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The knee -

    This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.

    Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
    Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.

    Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"

    But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.

    Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
    I think you are overanalysing it, and so too are those that are against it. Although not a Labour supporter, I quite like Starmer and I think a lot of people are underestimating him on the basis of polls in a strange time, but I think he looked a bit silly genuflecting. he needs a better spin doctor.
    Not sure I am. I'm only suggesting there's a bit of this around in certain quarters.

    I agree on the staged "kneeling in office" shot. Bit wooden and inauthentic looking.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Bloody hell.

    Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/

    Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
    Yes.

    Ron de Santis. He didn't just claim lockdowns were not needed, he demonstrated that they were not.

    One day he might well be President of the United States, saying they were not.
    So why did they have a lockdown then?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is it true we are not collating vaccinated/unvaccinated cases and hospitalisations data?
    If so, all modelling is entirely flawed.

    We are, it's just not being made public.
    Ta. Any particular reason for that?
    I mean we are publishing data of all other kinds.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    File under - do fuck off

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9578215/Vaccines-minister-Nadhim-Zahawi-says-jab-programme-flex-tackle-Indian-variant.html

    Four Brits dead from Indian variant as experts (and Dominic Cummings) tell Boris to hit the brakes: PM urged to keep England OUT of pubs and delay Monday's unlocking
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is it true we are not collating vaccinated/unvaccinated cases and hospitalisations data?
    If so, all modelling is entirely flawed.

    We are, it's just not being made public.
    Do you have any idea why that is?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    You need to take into account the CFR of the various groups - unvaccinated.

    Not very many 85+ unvaccinated etc.

    Otherwise the result in nonsense.
    However, the CFR for the vulnerable will be considerably higher than 1%

    1% is the CFR in a total population, not just ‘the vulnerable’

    On the other hand, many of these people will have immunity to Covid, as they’ve already survived it.

    This epidemiology stuff is tricky
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    Firstly, those people have chosen not to be vaccinated, secondly the vaccines prevent the spread of the virus even with just a single dose. The cumulative effect of that will reduce these numbers quite significantly. We can't go back into lockdown becuase a few idiots have rejected the vaccine.
    Haven't you heard of seasonality or T cell immunity? Go away and learn some elementary facts about respiratory viruses. Also a retired doctor I know says that at medical school in 1964 not only was he taught these two subjects but also that viruses normally compete in the body, i.e. a person wouldn't be expected to have flu, COVID & a severe cold all at the same time. Just as we observed in the past year, much to some peoples' puzzlement.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,442
    dixiedean said:

    Is it true we are not collating vaccinated/unvaccinated cases and hospitalisations data?
    If so, all modelling is entirely flawed.

    https://fullfact.org/health/32-vaccinated-hospital/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The knee -

    This here comment of mine is not targeted at anyone on here - honest guv - but I do sense that for some the gesture is particularly upsetting because it smacks of supplication to the Black Man.

    Sorry. Nonsense. Only in your mind.
    Well there's no doubt - since it's widely expressed - that the 'supplicant' look of taking the knee gets a lot of goats.

    Now none of these goats will come out and say, "Yeah, making white people grovel and kneel for BLM, trying to turn the tables innit, well they can fuck right off!"

    But what makes you think there's none of that going on? There's some real rage out there about this gesture, remember, and some of those most angry are ... interesting people.

    Are you 100% sure it's all due to irritation at virtue signaling and dislike of Marxism? I'm not.
    I think you are overanalysing it, and so too are those that are against it. Although not a Labour supporter, I quite like Starmer and I think a lot of people are underestimating him on the basis of polls in a strange time, but I think he looked a bit silly genuflecting. he needs a better spin doctor.
    Not sure I am. I'm only suggesting there's a bit of this around in certain quarters.

    I agree on the staged "kneeling in office" shot. Bit wooden and inauthentic looking.
    You just summed Starmer up

    Bit wooden and inauthentic looking.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Is Boris going to delay unlockdown?

    It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket

    It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux

    Lockdown at sub-10 deaths a day would be ridiculous. It'd be adhered to even less than the November lockdown. It will not change my plans one bit. It will also not happen.
    I don't see a countrywide lockdown.

    I do see Boris trying to delay forthcoming changes in Bolton and some other places....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: this chart is important

    It’s early days, but there are signs that the vaccines may be working against the Indian variant B.1.617.2

    Yes, all of these "concerned" experts have yet to present any evidence of vaccine escape. It's just one last push by those who want us all locked away for our own good to conquer death.
    I’ve done a fair bit of reading on this variant, now.

    The main ‘concern’ is not vaccine evasion, but extra transmissibility. We’re almost sure this version of the bug is more infectious, probably more infectious than Kentish Corona. But whether the variant is 30% or 50% more transmissible will be crucial. 30% and we’ll likely be OK. We can manage. 50% could crush the NHS - given the millions we still need to vax

    Times (££)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-peak-could-overwhelm-nhs-without-local-lockdowns-rbpfr6wp0

    These were the same modellers that basically just decided that the vaccine rollout would stop and no one else would develop neutralising antibodies from vaccines.

    Honestly the doom mongering scientists just need to be ignored. We have vaccines, we have evidence that the Indian variant doesn't escape the vaccines and we are vaccinating at an incredible rate. Additionally there's loads of evidence that the vaccines prevent the spread of COVID which brings the cumulative rate of reduction in hospitalisations down hugely.

    Vaccines, not lockdown will be the way out of this and we have them. Everything else is noise.
    (I'm not going for another round of our "appropriateness of worst case scenario forecasts debate!)

    But I would expect that the 'possible local problems if 50% more transmissive' headlines are based on the worst case models which - as we do agree - will be using unrealistically pessimistic assumptions, such as very little effect of vaccines on onwards transmission if infected.

    It's an out-there possibility, perhaps, in some places. If the stars align in exactly the wrong way. The kind of freak universe in which Labour have a 13% national poll lead next Tuesday.
    Last time the models simply assumed that no one new would be vaccinated. It's complete garbage modelling, not even a worse case scenario it's literally a false input.

    1000 deaths per day when we have vaccinated as many people as we have is in the impossible pile, not in the "if the stars align" pile. This variant does not evade vaccines. These models are garbage and whatever justification you have for them being produced is public sector Stockholm syndrome of politicians asking for specific outcomes to be produced.
    Malmesbury says there are 5m vulnerable unvaccinated in the UK

    If half of them catch the Indian variant over the summer as we unlockdown that’s 2.5m cases. We can expect 10% of those to be serious enough to require hospitalisation. 250,000 people in hospital. A lot.

    1% will die. 25,000 people.

    Summer is 90 days long (actually 2 in the UK but whatever)

    25,000 divided by 90 is 277 deaths a day. Quite plausible

    So, nowhere near 1000 deaths a day but probably bad enough that HMG would wearily lock us all down again
    This is exactly the kind of modelling that has led us into repeated lockdowns with no consideration whether they work or the cost/benefits.
    I would hope the government’s modeling is a bit more profound than mine. I’m a bored flint dildo knapper drinking tea and staring at the grey london skies in mild despair, pulling figures out of the air
    Sometimes I'm not convinced it is more profound to be frank. More C++ code involved but otherwise...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    RobD said:

    Bloody hell.

    Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/

    Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
    You think the editor of the Spectator would put that out if he couldn't stand it up as they say?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hands up who had the Tories being in control of City Hall via a Blue - Yellow - Green coalition in London this election.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-greens-lib-dems-alliance-london-assembly-b935170.html

    Wow. I was assuming that Labour must have been cruising in London given the national polling. Starmer really didn't have a good election.
    Bloody hell.

    Labour lose control of the London Assembly to the Tories/LDs/Greens.

    Didn't see that coming.
    And Labour were saying London was one of their good results.....
    This is genuinely hilarious. It's worth remembering that, just as the rest of the country often bears little resemblance to London, so too does London bear little resemblance to the rest of the country. London Tories, Greens and LDs are actually often competing for the same middle-class votes - and hence have similar priorities in office - while Labour absolutely dominates the poorer working class areas. It's actually not that surprising they couldn't come to an agreement, especially as London Labour is absolutely riddled with all the most objectionable aspects of the party in recent years. Albeit I wouldn't have predicted it in advance.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415
    Floater said:

    File under - do fuck off

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9578215/Vaccines-minister-Nadhim-Zahawi-says-jab-programme-flex-tackle-Indian-variant.html

    Four Brits dead from Indian variant as experts (and Dominic Cummings) tell Boris to hit the brakes: PM urged to keep England OUT of pubs and delay Monday's unlocking

    4 dead on the roads yesterday (as all days) - Does cummings want to ban driving?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Bloody hell.

    Talking of models and modelling and lockdown. Fraser Nelson claims today that members of SAGE who demurred from 'we must lockdown now' model were threaten with being fired.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/13/really-need-inquiry-sage-forced-britain-lockdown/

    Said without quotes or any evidence to back it up, just a claim that more will emerge later. In any case, can anyone deny that the lockdowns were actually needed?
    You think the editor of the Spectator would put that out if he couldn't stand it up as they say?
    If he can't back it up, he shouldn't say it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mr. Pioneers, perhaps.

    Mr. Above, BLM have been very smart with their name/slogan. Lots of otherwise sensible people have taken their nonsense far more seriously than they should have.

    Anyone kneeling for a cabal of race-baiting neo-Marxists is a damned fool. To be honest, it's the only thing (with judgement reserved on the yet to be revealed English devolution plans) Starmer has done that's annoyed me seriously.

    If BLM is saying get on your knees, and you do it, you're kneeling for them. Saying you're doing it for the slogan is as convincing as a someone saying they're anti-racist while insisting white people are inherently racist.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. kinabalu, you make the mistake of thinking that these CRT dimwits aren't racists.

    Those who bang on about white privilege and white people being inherently guilty of racism are advocates, not opponents, of racism. The other day I posted leaked (and not denied, to my knowledge) plans by Disney that are alarming, focusing on equality of outcome, not opportunity. This stuff is being taken seriously by many who should know better.

    Apparently it may have been shot down after the backlash.
    https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1392225593014448129

    I don't make mistakes, Morris. And we were talking about YOU.
    You're just part of the cabal. :smile:
    It has in fact just driven me to take a knee. Just a quick one before I put the dishwasher on.
    I am a bit concerned about the millions of Roman Catholics who keep supporting BLM whenever they enter a pew in church.
    God's a marxist too, isn't he, so very concerning in fact.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Sean_F said:

    Howard Beckett:

    "“If my language was inappropriate I’ve apologised for it and taken the tweet down...I don’t look at Priti Patel and see her migrant background the colour of her skin, I look at Priti Patel and see her racist policies and the racism she’s carried out.”


    If my language was inappropriate?

    Why can no one in public life actually apologise for something?

    It's not a real apology at all. A true apology is usually sufficient to wipe the slate clean. Most people are not particularly vindictive.

    If you think you've done nothing wrong, it's better to say so, rather than offer such an excuse for an apology.
    It is the left being pathologically sure that they are incapable of being racist.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    eek said:

    Chameleon said:

    Leon said:

    Is Boris going to delay unlockdown?

    It’s what I predicted at about 7pm last night and everyone accused me of being a drunken hysteric on Ket

    It’s horribly possible now. My guess is the government will do its usual thing - allow unlockdown for a few days, then truly panic next Thursday at the latest Indian variant data, and lockdown all over again. Christmas redux

    Lockdown at sub-10 deaths a day would be ridiculous. It'd be adhered to even less than the November lockdown. It will not change my plans one bit. It will also not happen.
    I don't see a countrywide lockdown.

    I do see Boris trying to delay forthcoming changes in Bolton and some other places....
    Bolton Tory council leader just on WATO. Local lockdowns don't work. Shifts the problem to the next borough. Which in GM often can be a pub just across the road. Burnham agrees.
    We had a Bolton lockdown in the summer. Led to a surge in Wigan.
This discussion has been closed.