politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points
Comments
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Osborne and Cameron switch jobs?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Much more to come on cabinet reshuffle. including one very major, unexpected change.
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What, Osborne, simultaneously the country's most popular politician AND most popular heir-to-a-baronetcy. ;-)MikeP said:
For Labour's sake I hope it won't be Osborne, Gove or IDS getting sacked.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Much more to come on cabinet reshuffle. including one very major, unexpected change.0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Much more to come on cabinet reshuffle. including one very major, unexpected change.
John Major to be Foreign Sec or EU Commisioner?0 -
How about Hague and Osborne swap jobs?
Hague rates very well with the public - would be a good idea I think.0 -
Assuming it is Hague, I also assume this will be announced at 9.55-10.05 this evening...0
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Well they can implement something, even if it is without vision. I get the feeling, and perhaps I am harsh on such people, that former SPaD wonks that populate much of the leadership groups of our political parties have, even before becoming MPs, spent so much time obsessed over the business of partisan political squabbling, that they don't have as much time for things like vision. They trust that the party they have served professionally without distraction for so long will come up with the right ideas for the country when they are in power, having a coherent ideology or vision before getting into power just draws attention away from the task of winning. Future them can worry about a vision.oxfordsimon said:
For that to be possible, the Eds would have to have a vision. Which if they have got, they are keeping very well hidden.FrancisUrquhart said:
Or 5 years having to watch from the opposition benches as the two Eds implement their vision.oxfordsimon said:I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.
Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!
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I'm beginning to worry that Stephen Phillips QC is going to be promoted.oxfordsimon said:Solicitor General also leaving the government. So complete shake-up of the Law Officers
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Hopefully it'll be Geoffrey Cox QCLife_ina_market_town said:
I'm beginning to worry that Stephen Phillips QC is going to be promoted.oxfordsimon said:Solicitor General also leaving the government. So complete shake-up of the Law Officers
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My phone keeps ringing, Dave - I know you read PB too but I've said no, I don't like red boxes... I prefer pb's yellow ones.
Stick the FCO job.0 -
People should use #reshuffle, so all the tweets can be in one place.0
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Dave, I take back all those threads and times I've said you're crap.Scrapheap_as_was said:My phone keeps ringings, Dave - I've said no, I don't like red boxes... I prefer pb's yellow ones.
Stick the FCO job.
You are the modern day Julius Caesar.0 -
@LordAshcroft: Hague has no ambition to lead the Tory Party again so what is left in Govt for him? His stage is now the world's so don't be surprised if..0
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@LordAshcroft: Hague has no ambition to lead the Tory Party again so what is left in Govt for him? His stage is now the world's so don't be surprised if...0
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Avery, please photoshop your avatar to have George holding up a yellow box.Scrapheap_as_was said:My phone keeps ringing, Dave - I know you read PB too but I've said no, I don't like red boxes... I prefer pb's yellow ones.
Stick the FCO job.0 -
Getting ever more likely I reckon.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·2 mins
Hague has no ambition to lead the Tory Party again so what is left in Govt for him? His stage is now the world's so don't be surprised if...0 -
Oh FFSake Its going to happen isn't it - Obvious 25-1 winner was obvious. Jesus ><0
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Woman Foreign Sec? Who could it be if so?0
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Just saw a tweet (obviously not based on any rumour or anything) putting Rees Mogg and minister in the same sentence. While I'd quite enjoy that, I don't think it would go down with the general theme of the reshuffle!0
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Indeed, we remember Hague's speech about Mr. President when Gordon B was the PM, this would all come together nicely if he ended up, not President but not too shabby a role...Pulpstar said:Oh FFSake Its going to happen isn't it - Obvious 25-1 winner was obvious. Jesus ><</p>
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They need to appoint both the AG and the SC though.TheScreamingEagles said:Hopefully it'll be Geoffrey Cox QC
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Mad Nad.RobD said:Woman Foreign Sec? Who could it be if so?
or if we're going for box ticking window dressing
Priti P.0 -
BETTING POST
You can get 11/4 on William Hague NOT to be Foreign Sec until the GE
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=14776100 -
She'd be insufferable!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Mad Nad.RobD said:Woman Foreign Sec? Who could it be if so?
or if we're going for box ticking window dressing
Priti P.0 -
Democracy is the method used to select those who wield power. It doesn't stop them using that power to hurt you. Other countries instal a safeguard to stop them going nuts (that's the function of a constitution), but the UK doesn't have one that fits the definition. Outside agencies like the various european and international courts are the only practical constraints that prevent HMG going Taliban. By removing the remaining constraints from the powerful you're building a machine with only one "stop" button that takes five years to activate. This is inherently unwise.Luckyguy1983 said:
The people stop them. It's called democracy. Who stops the ECHR hurting people for fun?viewcode said:
If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?TheScreamingEagles said:
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.Sean_F said:
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, looks like Dominic Grieve has been given the heave ho, I'm still fuming at Edward Garnier's axe in 2012
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 50s
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
An example of a machine that was built without proper safeguards in the last 20 years was the Euro, but we seem to be ignoring that lesson. We seem to be governed by the equivalent of cowboy builders, sawing thru a loadbearing wall.
As for your second question ("Who stops the ECHR hurting people for fun?"), the answer is that the ECHR is a passive agency, not a muscle: it can stop you doing something or it can enable you to do something, but it cannot make somebody hurt you. Governments can.
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It ought to be held, but there would he a huge swing to UKIP in a by-election.Easterross said:HUGE rumours about William Hague. Euro Commissioner? HIs majority is humungous and not UKIP territory.
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Has Olly Heald gone too?Life_ina_market_town said:
They need to appoint both the AG and the SC though.TheScreamingEagles said:Hopefully it'll be Geoffrey Cox QC
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Hague nearly lost the by-election in 1989Sean_F said:
It ought to be held, but there would he a huge swing to UKIP in a by-election.Easterross said:HUGE rumours about William Hague. Euro Commissioner? HIs majority is humungous and not UKIP territory.
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Slightly better, don't give up.MikeP said:
For Labour's sake I hope it won't be Osborne, Gove or IDS getting sacked.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Much more to come on cabinet reshuffle. including one very major, unexpected change.
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It is all building up to a 9.55 big announcement - ready to take the 10pm news broadcasts by storm0
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Not shocked by that, I think he has had a health issue of late, according to local press. No idea what.TheScreamingEagles said:
Has Olly Heald gone too?Life_ina_market_town said:
They need to appoint both the AG and the SC though.TheScreamingEagles said:Hopefully it'll be Geoffrey Cox QC
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Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec0
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FCO would suit him better, I think.TheScreamingEagles said:Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec
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The UK wasn't Taliban prior to adhering to the ECHR or prior to passing the HRA.viewcode said:
Democracy is the method used to select those who wield power. It doesn't stop them using that power to hurt you. Other countries instal a safeguard to stop them going nuts (that's the function of a constitution), but the UK doesn't have one that fits the definition. Outside agencies like the various european and international courts are the only practical constraints that prevent HMG going Taliban. By removing the remaining constraints from the powerful you're building a machine with only one "stop" button that takes five years to activate. This is inherently unwise.Luckyguy1983 said:
The people stop them. It's called democracy. Who stops the ECHR hurting people for fun?viewcode said:
If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?TheScreamingEagles said:
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.Sean_F said:
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, looks like Dominic Grieve has been given the heave ho, I'm still fuming at Edward Garnier's axe in 2012
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 50s
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
An example of a machine that was built without proper safeguards in the last 20 years was the Euro, but we seem to be ignoring that lesson. We seem to be governed by the equivalent of cowboy builders, sawing thru a loadbearing wall.
As for your second question ("Who stops the ECHR hurting people for fun?"), the answer is that the ECHR is a passive agency, not a muscle: it can stop you doing something or it can enable you to do something, but it cannot make somebody hurt you. Governments can.
And, if a Taliban-type government were to come to power, I doubt if they'd take much notice of the ECHR.0 -
You Gov EICIPM will not be on the news will it?oxfordsimon said:It is all building up to a 9.55 big announcement - ready to take the 10pm news broadcasts by storm
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CheersLife_ina_market_town said:0 -
It is confirmed by a number of sources.Life_ina_market_town said:0 -
Would prove 100% that Dave or Ozzie do read PB and have listened to OGH and his ever-so subtle hints re Gove at Education .....TheScreamingEagles said:Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec
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May to FS?TheScreamingEagles said:Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec
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Where?TheScreamingEagles said:Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec
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It was damn near lost when Hague won it in 1989.Sean_F said:
It ought to be held, but there would he a huge swing to UKIP in a by-election.Easterross said:HUGE rumours about William Hague. Euro Commissioner? HIs majority is humungous and not UKIP territory.
Conservative William Hague 19,543
Social Democrat Mike Potter 16,909
Social and Liberal Democrats Barbara Pearce 11,589
If the Social Democrats and what turned out to be the Lib Dems could have got their act together William Hague would have to wait until the next General Election.0 -
Jane Merrick @janemerrick23 7m
If you put May in Foreign, you could then put Gove at Home Office. Too big a power/chum to not want one of the top 3 #nightofthelongdives
Greg Callus @Greg_Callus 13m
Is there really any question that if Hague retires, Gove will become Foreign Sec? I thought that was a given?0 -
YesRobD said:
May to FS?TheScreamingEagles said:Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec
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If you are of the opinion that Gove is a massive vote loser, isn't the damage already done?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Would prove 100% that Dave or Ozzie do read PB and have listened to OGH and his ever-so subtle hints re Gove at Education .....TheScreamingEagles said:Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec
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Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH 26s
Am told that Hague is going to Leader of the House and that Fox is definitely back. May be wrong - but source is strong.0 -
Worth a try to fix it, is I would assume the thinking if a move is on the cards.FrancisUrquhart said:
If you are of the opinion that Gove is a massive vote loser, isn't the damage already done?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Would prove 100% that Dave or Ozzie do read PB and have listened to OGH and his ever-so subtle hints re Gove at Education .....TheScreamingEagles said:Rumours that Gove could become Home or Foreign Sec
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I don't understand what the thinking is behind bringing back Fox.TheScreamingEagles said:Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH 26s
Am told that Hague is going to Leader of the House and that Fox is definitely back. May be wrong - but source is strong.0 -
I don't buy Hague as Leader of the House at all. No.TheScreamingEagles said:Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH 26s
Am told that Hague is going to Leader of the House and that Fox is definitely back. May be wrong - but source is strong.0 -
I don't understand it either.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't understand what is the thinking is behind bringing back Fox.TheScreamingEagles said:Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH 26s
Am told that Hague is going to Leader of the House and that Fox is definitely back. May be wrong - but source is strong.0 -
Surely better to put Gove at Foreign where he is more out of the public eye?0
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re-ICM. I recall that a week before polling day the Tories became quite excited when the Labour lead dropped to 5% with ICM. Even their final poll showed a lead of 10% compared with the 13% outcome. That year they were the only polling company to understate the Labour lead.0
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Ashcroft -- Lansley out, which frees up the house.0
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That's the route Robin Cook took.oxfordsimon said:
I don't buy Hague as Leader of the House at all. No.TheScreamingEagles said:Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH 26s
Am told that Hague is going to Leader of the House and that Fox is definitely back. May be wrong - but source is strong.
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Please no re Dr Fox...
I suppose it's to counter Owen P going?
I'd have thought my man, Ken C leaving would have been enough.0 -
Hague is the Party's best person on TV after Cameron.
So could make sense to give him low key job - make him available for more prominent TV role.0 -
It might well be - but it still doesn't feel right for him.OldKingCole said:
That's the route Robin Cook took.oxfordsimon said:
I don't buy Hague as Leader of the House at all. No.TheScreamingEagles said:Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH 26s
Am told that Hague is going to Leader of the House and that Fox is definitely back. May be wrong - but source is strong.0 -
James Landale @BBCJLandale 1m
I am told by top source that we should prepare for a big change at the top of government. Hague, May or Hammond.0 -
Gove as Foreign Sec would be interesting given he's already stated he would leave the EU as things currently stand Re. our relationship with Europe.
Would shake things up at The Office I'm sure...0 -
James Landale @BBCJLandale 2m
I am told by top source that we should prepare for a big change at the top of government. Hague, May or Hammond.0 -
Latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection Countdown :
11 hours 11 minutes 11 seconds0 -
TSE is going to be 'even' more unbearable ....0
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My last comment related to 1997!0
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The last Tory PM to demote their Foreign Secretary to Leader of the House was toppled as PM a year later by that former Foreign Sec0
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Given some of the other changes, should we expect that arch federalist David Lidlington to be moved as Minister of State for Europe?0
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So presumably you wouldn't object if there was a piece of paper somewhere that said "Disembowelling passers-by, whether randomly or non-randomly, regardless of motive, is wrong and you cannot do it", and that the government couldn't ignore that piece of paper?...GeoffM said:
You are right. We were savages before the ECHR saved us from ourselves. Disembowelling random passers-by for fun. And on Sundays, too! Oh the inhumanity of it all.viewcode said:
If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?TheScreamingEagles said:
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.Sean_F said:
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, looks like Dominic Grieve has been given the heave ho, I'm still fuming at Edward Garnier's axe in 2012
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 50s
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
...but you see where I'm going with this.
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Why?Scrapheap_as_was said:TSE is going to be 'even' more unbearable ....
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I thought the rumour was that Hague would stay as Foreign Sec until election, then leave government and should Tories form next government Osborne would go to Foreign Office?0
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I thought you'd been mentioned as having tipped Hague for the Euro gig at 25-1 earlier?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why?Scrapheap_as_was said:TSE is going to be 'even' more unbearable ....
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LotH could either free him up for media time - or allow him to be nominated for EUC without requiring a major reshuffle.oxfordsimon said:
I don't buy Hague as Leader of the House at all. No.TheScreamingEagles said:Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH 26s
Am told that Hague is going to Leader of the House and that Fox is definitely back. May be wrong - but source is strong.0 -
I was a Michael Howard manScrapheap_as_was said:
I thought you'd been mentioned as having tipped Hague for the Euro gig at 25-1 earlier?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why?Scrapheap_as_was said:TSE is going to be 'even' more unbearable ....
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Ian Dale suggesting Hague may be standing down as MP too (unclear if he means now, or at election!)0
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Difference here though is that Hague seem's to want to quit front-line politics. Or at least take more of a back seat...TheScreamingEagles said:The last Tory PM to demote their Foreign Secretary to Leader of the House was toppled as PM a year later by that former Foreign Sec
Personally I don't think Hague will be leader of the house. Think he'll go to backbenches and then leave Parliament next year, personally...
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Yes I see exactly where you are going with this - in to full scale trolling mode.viewcode said:
So presumably you wouldn't object if there was a piece of paper somewhere that said "Disembowelling passers-by, whether randomly or non-randomly, regardless of motive, is wrong and you cannot do it", and that the government couldn't ignore that piece of paper?...GeoffM said:
You are right. We were savages before the ECHR saved us from ourselves. Disembowelling random passers-by for fun. And on Sundays, too! Oh the inhumanity of it all.viewcode said:
If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?TheScreamingEagles said:
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.Sean_F said:
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, looks like Dominic Grieve has been given the heave ho, I'm still fuming at Edward Garnier's axe in 2012
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 50s
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
...but you see where I'm going with this.
However, with apologies, I can't be bothered to bite a second time.0 -
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three points: CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 10%0
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I've been commissioned to write the reshuffle thread.
If Liam Fox is back, and back as Foreign Secretary, expect a lot of swear words in my piece.0 -
YouGov:
Con +2, UKIP -20 -
Well wrong on 2 counts today. Firstly I thought ICM would show an increased labour lead and secondly I predicted that the reshuffle would be dull. I think I should stick to bringing ruin on the English cricket team.0
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He was here in Gib last week spreading platitudes and weasel words.Life_ina_market_town said:Given some of the other changes, should we expect that arch federalist David Lidlington to be moved as Minister of State for Europe?
It'd be wonderful to see the back of him.0 -
I don't buy Dr Fox as Foreign Sec. Not after what happened. Leader of the house or defence sec maybe. Or environment, trasnsport, etc... But I don't think Cameron would risk him in one of the Big Four. Yet.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been commissioned to write the reshuffle thread.
If Liam Fox is back, and back as Foreign Secretary, expect a lot of swear words in my piece.
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Can't believe he'd get the FFS position.TheScreamingEagles said:I've been commissioned to write the reshuffle thread.
If Liam Fox is back, and back as Foreign Secretary, expect a lot of swear words in my piece.0 -
The wrong Dr Fox!TheScreamingEagles said:I've been commissioned to write the reshuffle thread.
If Liam Fox is back, and back as Foreign Secretary, expect a lot of swear words in my piece.
You want fox in sox sir!
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If it was going to lead at 10, wouldn't we have heard something by now?0
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Hague standing down, confirmed by Cameron.0
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Tonights YG LAB 341 CON 267 LD 16 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM0 -
Looks like UKIP now falling rapidly.0
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Incoming
Chris Ship@chrisshipitv·2 mins
At 10 @tombradby will have some BIG #reshuffle news. For once - it'll actually be a name most people will have heard of... @itvnews next0 -
David Cameron @David_Cameron 23s
1/2 I'd like to pay an enormous tribute to @WilliamJHague who is standing down as an MP at the next election.
David Cameron @David_Cameron 9s
2/2 Until then, I'm delighted he'll remain my de facto political deputy, play a key campaigning role and be Leader of the House of Commons.
I spoke too soon!!0 -
Hague gone.0
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So did I - but there we are.RobD said:David Cameron @David_Cameron 23s
1/2 I'd like to pay an enormous tribute to @WilliamJHague who is standing down as an MP at the next election.
David Cameron @David_Cameron 9s
2/2 Until then, I'm delighted he'll remain my de facto political deputy, play a key campaigning role and be Leader of the House of Commons.
I spoke too soon!!0 -
Another (at this stage reported) casualty: Environment Minister Owen Paterson.
I hear badgers are rejoicing, that was after they put down the goal posts that they were shifting.0 -
Given a straight choice it is yours every timefoxinsoxuk said:
The wrong Dr Fox!TheScreamingEagles said:I've been commissioned to write the reshuffle thread.
If Liam Fox is back, and back as Foreign Secretary, expect a lot of swear words in my piece.
You want fox in sox sir!0 -
Hague won't be commissioner. Still hope for Howard!0
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Hm I suppose first women bishops in 500 years does kinda beat a Cabinet reshuffle... but hmpf.0
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Thanks for everything William. Enjoy your retirement (next year)RobD said:David Cameron @David_Cameron 23s
1/2 I'd like to pay an enormous tribute to @WilliamJHague who is standing down as an MP at the next election.
David Cameron @David_Cameron 9s
2/2 Until then, I'm delighted he'll remain my de facto political deputy, play a key campaigning role and be Leader of the House of Commons.
I spoke too soon!!0 -
Hammond to FCO, according to ITN.0
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And they are not alone.FrancisUrquhart said:Another (at this stage reported) casualty: Environment Minister Owen Paterson.
I hear badgers are rejoicing.0 -
Hague "key campaigning role" - very good news!0
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Ah shame, Hague was a massive failure and clearly useless at any job he tried, but at least he wasn't as much of an electoral liability as Gove Osborne or IDS.0