If UKIP are indeed fading fast in the polls then Ladbrokes' odds of 15/8 against them securing a share of the vote of between 5% - 10% at the GE appears to offer good value and better than the same odds offered against them winning a 10% - 15% share, bearing mind also that there are many seats in which they will not stand. I'm on but DYOR.
Anyone betting on UKIP to win less than 5% would be wasting their money.
Osborne to Mandelson after "yachtgate" at Spectator awards:
" I was a little non-plussed when I was told you had won this award. I was told it was going to be Lord Mandelson of Hartlepool & Foy - and then I remembered it was the guy that I met on holiday. You know how it is - you meet another English guy, he's the only other English guy in the resort. You swap stories about work and you think you are never going to see them again. Imagine my delight today. It's wonderful that as winners of a Spectator award we are once again in the same boat. Our next holiday is going to be in a rowing boat in the North Sea off Hartlepool, a place neither of us has visited for many years."
So until the Tories start getting regular poll leads of 7% or more, no change to the likely outcome of the next election.
I quite accept that this may hearten / dishearten parties and their likely voters so any sort of a poll lead may have an effect quite disproportionate to its actual size. Still, there is not much time for the Tories to tur things round, I'm wary of underestimating Ed M (who I think is both cannier and nicer than some give him credit for) and the Tories' capacity for shooting themselves in the foot should nerver be underestimated either.
I take the foot-shooting point, but it's certainly not the case that there is not much time to turn things round. I refer you to the analysis of Professor Fisher, which indicates that on previous experience there is every likelihood of a turnaround (though a shift in the other direction is also possible, of course).
Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.
Did he pen a guest post on the use of AV within a Scottish referendum, during Eurovision?
Was the night he was arrested, a few people, including those who should have known better, decided to smear him, they all went silent a few hours later, when footage emerged of Gordon Brown publicly admitting in the 80s doing what Damian Green had been arrested for.
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.
Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.
Did he pen a guest post on the use of AV within a Scottish referendum, during Eurovision?
Was the night he was arrested, a few people, including those who should have known better, decided to smear him, they all went silent a few hours later, when footage emerged of Gordon Brown publicly admitting in the 80s doing what Damian Green had been arrested for.
Strange as it seems, Damian Green was responsible for one of PB's most fractious days.
Did he pen a guest post on the use of AV within a Scottish referendum, during Eurovision?
Was the night he was arrested, a few people, including those who should have known better, decided to smear him, they all went silent a few hours later, when footage emerged of Gordon Brown publicly admitting in the 80s doing what Damian Green had been arrested for.
An interesting day for poll watchers but perhaps time for a little reflection on ICM. It's called "the Gold Standard" by some mainly perhaps because it's been around for so long and provides a measure every month. It's good with trends BUT and this is worth emphasising, I've always said ICM is as capable of producing an outlier as any other pollster.
In my experience, ICM throws out outlier numbers for individual parties and this moves the whole poll. In fainess, the difference in the UKIP and LD numbers between Ashcroft and ICM is statistically enormous - a variation between 7% and 12% is well beyond background noise or anything else.
The UKIP fall has broken the way most of us expected with about 40% going back to the Conservatives but significant numbers moving back to the LDs and Labour.
The other part of this is the remarkable lack of movement between the two largest parties which Nick P confirmed in his canvassing report. We are then left with two significant voter movements since 2010 - the LD to Labour bloc and the various to UKIP which now looks akin to the moves to the LDs and before them the Liberals in previous Parliaments.
Today's polls still leave Labour in a strong position - Ashcroft offers a majority and even ICM would see Ed Milliband fairly secure in No.10 (take out SF and he is almost across the line). The Conservatives are a long way from an overall majority and need a degree of movement from labour that today's polls don't yet suggest. The LDs will be pleased to back above 10% with ICM and may dismiss Ashcroft as an outlier while UKIP are in the reverse position hoping ICM is an outlier which it might well be.
If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.
If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.
I didn't have the impression that you were sympathetic to either.
I didn't have the impression that you were sympathetic to either.
I am not, although I think Grieve has performed competently as Attorney General, and Ken Clarke was a vastly better LC than Grayling, and ensured that the Justice and Security Act 2013 was slightly less pernicious than it would otherwise have been when he was Minister without Portfolio. The point, however, is that both were committed to the rule of law in a way that Grayling, May and Cameron do not pretend to be. The latter are incapable of appreciating that there is no contradiction between being tough on crime and Europe, while preserving due process, the independence of the judiciary, and our traditional liberties.
If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.
The rule of law, due process and preserving liberties is so out of fashion these days. Everyone knows the only way to preserve our way of life in the face of challenge is to abandon key aspects of that way of life ourselves, stands to reason.
Good to get a probable outlier like this ICM poll - even if, as likely, it is an outlier, it will cause plenty of people to get excited nonetheless, and mix up the narrative for a bit.
If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.
The most disgusting decision IMHO was the hounding of Baroness Elizabeth Butler Sloss.. What the FECK is going on.. The country is going to the dogs if the aggrieved can choose who sits over an enquiry. Whatever they say , I think she has been seriously smeared.
Imagine the next old lag refusing to be sentence by Judge X because the defendant doesn't like the cut of his/her jib.
Iain Dale : @IainDale: The sacking of @damiangreenmp leaves me incredulous. Just as @AlistairBurtMP's did in the last reshuffle. Competence clearly doesn't matter.
James Forsyth:
@JGForsyth: Dominic Grieve leaving govt clears the major obstacle to the Tories proposing quitting the ECHR in their manifesto. More on Spec Live blog
Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....
So David Jones was pushed? Or is sacked just another way of saying left/quit etc.
An interesting point. Is there generally any significance to the language used at such times, or does the media play fast and loose with it as they like? I assume in most instances the terminology is equivalent to football parlance around managers leaving 'by mutual consent' and the like.
If it is the case that both Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve have been sacked, today represents an awful day for the rule of law. There will no longer be any heavyweight supporters of the principle near the top of government.
The most disgusting decision IMHO was the hounding of Baroness Elizabeth Butler Sloss.. What the FECK is going on.. The country is going to the dogs if the aggrieved can choose who sits over an enquiry. Whatever they say , I think she has been seriously smeared.
Imagine the next old lag refusing to be sentence by Judge X because the defendant doesn't like the cut of his/her jib.
Frankly I am appalled at todays events.
I have been appalled by the whole hysterical reaction to this issue. Smears and crass innuendo have replaced any sensible journalism on the subject.
I am in no way seeking to diminish the seriousness of the issue of child sex abuse - but unless we can approach it as rational adults, we will never get close to the truth.
I can't think of a single media outlet that has tackled this properly.
Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....
So David Jones was pushed? Or is sacked just another way of saying left/quit etc.
An interesting point. Is there generally any significance to the language used at such times, or does the media play fast and loose with it as they like? I assume in most instances the terminology is equivalent to football parlance around managers leaving 'by mutual consent' and the like.
The BBC newsreader put a lot of emphasis on the word sacked...
The most disgusting decision IMHO was the hounding of Baroness Elizabeth Butler Sloss.. What the FECK is going on.. The country is going to the dogs if the aggrieved can choose who sits over an enquiry. Whatever they say , I think she has been seriously smeared.
Imagine the next old lag refusing to be sentence by Judge X because the defendant doesn't like the cut of his/her jib.
Frankly I am appalled at todays events.
It is very simple. This will be a Hillsborough-style inquiry. That inquiry adopted a "families first" policy, enabling the families to have greater rights than other interested parties, including those subject to criticism by the inquiry. If this inquiry will be "survivors first", we really will be heading to the dogs.
Evening all and obviously as a Tory I am pleased with the ICM poll. However I think today's collection just prove my point that basically Tories and Labour are neck and neck and everything else froth.
Big reshuffle changes and surprise departures.
One betting thought. Although NPXMP is a nice cap, if you were a Broxtowe voter would you want your MP to be someone who spent 13 years on the back bench when his party was in Government or someone who in 4 years has risen from PPC to Minister and may by tomorrow evening be a Cabinet Minister?
Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....
So David Jones was pushed? Or is sacked just another way of saying left/quit etc.
An interesting point. Is there generally any significance to the language used at such times, or does the media play fast and loose with it as they like? I assume in most instances the terminology is equivalent to football parlance around managers leaving 'by mutual consent' and the like.
If you google "Blair reshuffle", for instance, the word sacked is frequently used. This is probably the first reshuffle of the Twitter era, and perhaps the rolling commentary is unusual.
Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....
These are all pretty junior people, even Clarke these days carries more weight physically than he does politically. The Minister for Civil Society is to be replaced? Well, so what? How many people knew there was such a post. Actually, this reshuffle seems to have the, perhaps unwanted, effect of showing up how many useless mouths there are in the trough. The DfID has a junior minister? Why for heaven's sake? Its sole job is to give away large chunks of cash we don't have; can't Greening do that on her own?
If Cameron wanted to make a real statement about his government he could sack all these people and not replace them. Who, aside from suddenly redundant civil servants, would notice?
Evening all and obviously as a Tory I am pleased with the ICM poll. However I think today's collection just prove my point that basically Tories and Labour are neck and neck and everything else froth.
Big reshuffle changes and surprise departures.
One betting thought. Although NPXMP is a nice cap, if you were a Broxtowe voter would you want your MP to be someone who spent 13 years on the back bench when his party was in Government or someone who in 4 years has risen from PPC to Minister and may by tomorrow evening be a Cabinet Minister?
I think people would say they would prefer an MP not encumbered by government work so they could dedicate themselves more fully to constituency work, but from what I gather most would rally behind an MP with a higher profile, unless that profile was about making an arse of themselves. But that is just a gut feeling, especially as rising through the ranks in a party is only partially about ability - knowing the right people and fitting other requirements, such as gender, can certainly aid advancement in conjunction with that ability - as most ministers tend to not be in marginals I would guess, although not all can avoid it of course.
Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....
These are all pretty junior people, even Clarke these days carries more weight physically than he does politically. The Minister for Civil Society is to be replaced? Well, so what? How many people knew there was such a post. Actually, this reshuffle seems to have the, perhaps unwanted, effect of showing up how many useless mouths there are in the trough. The DfID has a junior minister? Why for heaven's sake? Its sole job is to give away large chunks of cash we don't have; can't Greening do that on her own?
If Cameron wanted to make a real statement about his government he could sack all these people and not replace them. Who, aside from suddenly redundant civil servants, would notice?
As new people will have little chance to make a substantive impact before the election, and so any positive response from the public arising from them being known, if they are at all, coming from shallow media perception of their suitability, I would presume the main purpose of the reshuffle is therefore geared toward Cameron seeing off any internal threats pre-emptively by showing he is promoting the 'right' people, and hoping that any hatred among powerful groups certain junior ministers have built up over the past few years will be lessened by a new face, even if that new face carries on the same policies.
I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.
Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!
I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.
Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!
Naturally. You cannot have the same basic team in place for two terms in a row. No matter how fantastic they no doubt were, thy cannot keep up with the dynamism needed by a fresh government. Obviously this does not apply to the post of Prime Minster or any other Great Office of State. People in those positions, if they choose, can remain fresh and in tip top shape for more than a decade.
Evening all and obviously as a Tory I am pleased with the ICM poll. However I think today's collection just prove my point that basically Tories and Labour are neck and neck and everything else froth.
Big reshuffle changes and surprise departures.
One betting thought. Although NPXMP is a nice cap, if you were a Broxtowe voter would you want your MP to be someone who spent 13 years on the back bench when his party was in Government or someone who in 4 years has risen from PPC to Minister and may by tomorrow evening be a Cabinet Minister?
I think people would say they would prefer an MP not encumbered by government work so they could dedicate themselves more fully to constituency work, but from what I gather most would rally behind an MP with a higher profile, unless that profile was about making an arse of themselves. But that is just a gut feeling, especially as rising through the ranks in a party is only partially about ability - knowing the right people and fitting other requirements, such as gender, can certainly aid advancement in conjunction with that ability - as most ministers tend to not be in marginals I would guess, although not all can avoid it of course.
In 1982 at the Hillhead by-election, had polling day been a week earlier we would have held the seat easily but in the last week the media relentlessly portrayed Roy Jenkins as SDP PM in waiting and the blue rinse ladies of Kelvinside swooned at the thought and flocked to him. He won narrowly.
I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.
Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!
Or 5 years having to watch from the opposition benches as the two Eds implement their vision.
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.
If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?
I get a feeling that this reshuffle will be presented in terms of building the team for the second term. Putting in place people who can spend the next 5 years in place.
Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!
Or 5 years having to watch from the opposition benches as the two Eds implement their vision.
For that to be possible, the Eds would have to have a vision. Which if they have got, they are keeping very well hidden.
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.
If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?
You are right. We were savages before the ECHR saved us from ourselves. Disembowelling random passers-by for fun. And on Sundays, too! Oh the inhumanity of it all.
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.
Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.
If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?
The people stop them. It's called democracy. Who stops the ECHR hurting people for fun?
Comments
Breaking: Asked whether he's out of a job, @EricPickles tells @lgcplus @racheldaltonlgc: "I can't confirm or deny it" #reshuffle
Shocking if true.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-most-seats-doubles
Osborne to Mandelson after "yachtgate" at Spectator awards:
" I was a little non-plussed when I was told you had won this award.
I was told it was going to be Lord Mandelson of Hartlepool & Foy - and then I remembered it was the guy that I met on holiday.
You know how it is - you meet another English guy, he's the only other English guy in the resort. You swap stories about work and you think you are never going to see them again.
Imagine my delight today. It's wonderful that as winners of a Spectator award we are once again in the same boat.
Our next holiday is going to be in a rowing boat in the North Sea off Hartlepool, a place neither of us has visited for many years."
Jim Pickard @PickardJE 50s
Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen
BREAKING: Police Minister Damian Green has been sacked.
I'll get me coat.
(not really, we can all do without a bit of government!)
An awful lot of #reshuffle blood on the SW1 walls already tonight. Not over yet tho - "an interesting turn of events" coming very soon.
An interesting day for poll watchers but perhaps time for a little reflection on ICM. It's called "the Gold Standard" by some mainly perhaps because it's been around for so long and provides a measure every month. It's good with trends BUT and this is worth emphasising, I've always said ICM is as capable of producing an outlier as any other pollster.
In my experience, ICM throws out outlier numbers for individual parties and this moves the whole poll. In fainess, the difference in the UKIP and LD numbers between Ashcroft and ICM is statistically enormous - a variation between 7% and 12% is well beyond background noise or anything else.
The UKIP fall has broken the way most of us expected with about 40% going back to the Conservatives but significant numbers moving back to the LDs and Labour.
The other part of this is the remarkable lack of movement between the two largest parties which Nick P confirmed in his canvassing report. We are then left with two significant voter movements since 2010 - the LD to Labour bloc and the various to UKIP which now looks akin to the moves to the LDs and before them the Liberals in previous Parliaments.
Today's polls still leave Labour in a strong position - Ashcroft offers a majority and even ICM would see Ed Milliband fairly secure in No.10 (take out SF and he is almost across the line). The Conservatives are a long way from an overall majority and need a degree of movement from labour that today's polls don't yet suggest. The LDs will be pleased to back above 10% with ICM and may dismiss Ashcroft as an outlier while UKIP are in the reverse position hoping ICM is an outlier which it might well be.
edit: Keneesha Clarke
Ken Clarke stands down as Minister without Portfolio
David Jones sacked as Welsh Secretary
David Willetts stands down as Universities Minister, also announces he will not stand again for Parliament in 2015
Andrew Robathan leaves the Northern Ireland Office
Stephen Hammond leaves the Department for Transport
Nick Hurd quits as Minister for Civil Society
Alan Duncan leaves the Department for International Development
Damian Green out as Policing Minister
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/101623/government_reshuffle_latest_departures.html
Green is a loss - an assured media performer who should have gone further....
Or does he wait until Darling is free ?
Good to get a probable outlier like this ICM poll - even if, as likely, it is an outlier, it will cause plenty of people to get excited nonetheless, and mix up the narrative for a bit.
Imagine the next old lag refusing to be sentence by Judge X because the defendant doesn't like the cut of his/her jib.
Frankly I am appalled at todays events.
Iain Dale : @IainDale: The sacking of @damiangreenmp leaves me incredulous. Just as @AlistairBurtMP's did in the last reshuffle. Competence clearly doesn't matter.
James Forsyth:
@JGForsyth: Dominic Grieve leaving govt clears the major obstacle to the Tories proposing quitting the ECHR in their manifesto. More on Spec Live blog
I hope Hague stays, he is a decent Foreign Sec.
I am in no way seeking to diminish the seriousness of the issue of child sex abuse - but unless we can approach it as rational adults, we will never get close to the truth.
I can't think of a single media outlet that has tackled this properly.
Big reshuffle changes and surprise departures.
One betting thought. Although NPXMP is a nice cap, if you were a Broxtowe voter would you want your MP to be someone who spent 13 years on the back bench when his party was in Government or someone who in 4 years has risen from PPC to Minister and may by tomorrow evening be a Cabinet Minister?
If Cameron wanted to make a real statement about his government he could sack all these people and not replace them. Who, aside from suddenly redundant civil servants, would notice?
Jesus. Now Dominic Grieve has gone too. Madness. Hague next.
This seems to be the tweet everyone (Guido etc) is basing their Hague out rumours on.
Or at least that is how I would present such a major shift in personnel!
Your comment had the potential to get Mike Smithson into trouble.
So going forward you are not permitted to talk about the topic of paedophiles, directly or indirectly.
Christopher Hope @christopherhope 53s
BREAKING Greg Barker quits as Energy minister, and will leave Parliament at the next general election. He told PM of his decision at weekend
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Much more to come on cabinet reshuffle. including one very major, unexpected change.
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Osborne will stay as Chancellor