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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    RobD said:

    If it was going to lead at 10, wouldn't we have heard something by now?

    They cut it pretty fine, that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Nick Robinson suggests Osborne and May are both expected to stay in their posts.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Hammond Foreign Sec - ITV
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    If Gove is made FS, is this revenge on the rest of the planet for knocking us out of the world cup?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,382
    GeoffM said:

    viewcode said:

    GeoffM said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Bloody hell, looks like Dominic Grieve has been given the heave ho, I'm still fuming at Edward Garnier's axe in 2012

    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 50s

    Strange to see Dominic Grieve, attorney general, leaving Cameron office at 6pm looking crestfallen

    Why do you think he went? I'd have thought he was on the same wavelength as Cameron.
    Grieve is in favour of the ECHR, I think the new Tory policy will be to be anti ECHR, and so the new justice and Law Officers team will be proper Euro-sceptics wanting repatriate powers back and enshrine the Supremacy of our laws over European laws.
    If so, 'tis a pity. A government that's bound only by its own conscience is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they are doing it for the finest of motives, it's still making themselves into tinpot gods. If Parliament is supreme...who stops them when they decide to start hurting people for fun?

    You are right. We were savages before the ECHR saved us from ourselves. Disembowelling random passers-by for fun. And on Sundays, too! Oh the inhumanity of it all.
    So presumably you wouldn't object if there was a piece of paper somewhere that said "Disembowelling passers-by, whether randomly or non-randomly, regardless of motive, is wrong and you cannot do it", and that the government couldn't ignore that piece of paper?...

    ...but you see where I'm going with this.
    Yes I see exactly where you are going with this - in to full scale trolling mode.
    However, with apologies, I can't be bothered to bite a second time.
    Apologies. I wasn't intending to troll. I was trying to express my frustration at the general tendency of any given government to accrue unchecked power to itself, and my disapproval of this specific tendency to remove the European constraints.

  • MikePMikeP Posts: 47
    MikeL said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three points: CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 10%

    PM Ed Miliband: majority 32
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    If it was going to lead at 10, wouldn't we have heard something by now?

    They cut it pretty fine, that.
    Yes, probably kept under embargo, and pretty effectively at that.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Oh good, world war three has been postponed then
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    MikeL said:

    Hammond Foreign Sec - ITV

    Safe pair of hands - but not terribly exciting
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Hammond get's one of the top jobs. Wasn't expecting that.

    Maybe the idea is that should Con form next government Hammond and Osborne will swap?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    ITV - Hague in Number 10 every day during GE campaign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited July 2014
    MikeL said:

    Hammond Foreign Sec - ITV

    Defence seems like a good post to avoid, giving the seeming impossibility of not having at least some multi billion pound white elephant procurement absurdity while there - even if a minister personally is not responsible for some wasteful decision, there's going to be billions poured down the drain somewhere they cannot avoid cropping up on their watch. And that not even including the more serious aspects of the post.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeP said:

    Ah shame, Hague was a massive failure and clearly useless at any job he tried, but at least he wasn't as much of an electoral liability as Gove Osborne or IDS.

    You were improving, but you've overdone it again. Try harder.
  • MikePMikeP Posts: 47
    Freggles said:

    If Gove is made FS, is this revenge on the rest of the planet for knocking us out of the world cup?

    More to get the odious little runt out of the country perhaps.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Hague to have a starring role in next Angelina Jolie movie?

    Possibly a remake of The Color of Money, with Hague as the cue ball.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Freggles said:

    Oh good, world war three has been postponed then

    I have to confess that gave me a good laugh.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I see Sean T is pretending to be a PBred troll in the middle of this excitement?

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    MikeL said:

    Hammond Foreign Sec - ITV

    Am I right I thinking he is not enamoured with EU?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    How many long Knives is Cameron using?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    Hammond and Kerry, the 2 dullest men on the planet, as Foreign Sec and Sec of State, a cunning Cameron/Obama strategy to bore ISIS and the Taliban to sleep!
  • Hague will continue to be the First Secretary of State, and so unlike his predecessor as Leader of the House, will have a vote in the Cabinet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited July 2014
    Philip Hammond has said he would vote to leave the EU which earned a rebuke from the PM

    Wowsers.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Do you think David Davis is standing by the phone? ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    FU Seems a trouncing for right and left, out go Patterson and Jones, but out go Green and Clarke too, seems women are the main winners, perhaps Cameron sees them as his weak spot
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    14/07/2014 Single To Win No @ 11/4
    To keep position until next election
    Will William Hague be Foreign Secretary until the next general election? Pending £8.73
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    philiph said:

    MikeL said:

    Hammond Foreign Sec - ITV

    Am I right I thinking he is not enamoured with EU?
    Like Gove, I think Hammond has stated he would leave the EU as our relationship with the EU currently stands? So again, quite a shocking appointment in some ways.

  • HYUFD said:

    Hammond and Kerry, the 2 dullest men on the planet, as Foreign Sec and Sec of State, a cunning Cameron/Obama strategy to bore ISIS and the Taliban to sleep!

    We should leave the noble Caliph Ibrahim to his own devices. His five year expansion plan for the Caliphate, although it includes Vienna and Spain, doesn't extend to the United Kingdom. Let the next but one government deal with the Islamic State should it expand any further.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    MikeL said:

    Hammond Foreign Sec - ITV

    I said the other day that the Treasury wanted Hammond out of defence (knew too much and too good at his job) but to make him Foreign Sec is a bit weird. The chap is a bean counter, with all the charisma that goes with it, not really an international negotiator type. Ifear Cameron has lost the plot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Kerching 11/4.

    I'm assuming the Paddy Power Politics teams went home at 6pm today
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Will Boris be expressing interest in Richmond seat to stay close to Londoners?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    William Hague quit at the very, very top.

    He pulled Angelina Jolie.

    That's better than becoming PM.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Where are all these extra women in Cabinet? Do they just get the little jobs
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Andrew Neil saying it *won't* be May or Osborne for FS.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I take it the Lib Dems are not playing tonight ? No particular reason why they should although a BOO at the FO is going to be hard for them to stomach. There is part of the end game of the Coalition being played out here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Freggles said:

    Where are all these extra women in Cabinet? Do they just get the little jobs

    You probably haven't noticed, but no new positions have been announced. Cameron is doing all the sackings today, and all the hirings tomorrow. (wonder how much money that saves the treasury!)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    The ICM poll above showing a Tory lead demonstrates the flaws in OGH's view that the key determinant of the next election will be former 2010 LDs going to Labour. In fact, as Easterross pointed out, most of those 2010 LDs would have voted for Labour in 1992 when they were defeated, they only lent their votes to the LDs because of Iraq and Blair, they were always Labour at heart. What the above poll shows clearly is that it is UKIP voters who will actually determine the election result, and sure enough a 7% fall in the UKIP vote in this poll produces a Tory lead!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Freggles said:

    Where are all these extra women in Cabinet? Do they just get the little jobs

    Like Home sec?
  • DavidL said:

    I take it the Lib Dems are not playing tonight ? No particular reason why they should although a BOO at the FO is going to be hard for them to stomach. There is part of the end game of the Coalition being played out here.

    Huhne to return triumphantly tomorrow as Baron Huhne of Wandsworth and Leyhill?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Let's speculate. There appears to be a cull of the 'liberal' Conservative members of the Government. Nick Clegg has said that the next Lib Dem manifesto will be a defence of liberalism rather than moderating the policies of the other two parties. I think the master strategist ( aka George Osborne) is seeking a break up of the coalition and NC is going along with that. Expect a dramatic announcement soon.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Cameron preparing Tories for opposition !
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    OK, I've been trusting the rumours.
    I don't suppose Hunt is going anywhere before the election, but a woman in charge of the NHS might project a more sentimental image than Hunt the yuppie.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Fraser Nelson -- Bob Kerslake (head of civil service) has been sacked.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    DavidL said:

    I take it the Lib Dems are not playing tonight ? No particular reason why they should although a BOO at the FO is going to be hard for them to stomach. There is part of the end game of the Coalition being played out here.

    Huhne to return triumphantly tomorrow as Baron Huhne of Wandsworth and Leyhill?
    It was reported earlier that the Yellow Peril will be making their changes post-Conference. Though if Cable is forced out (which he really should have been many times by now), that timetable might have to change.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MikeL said:

    Hammond Foreign Sec - ITV

    I said the other day that the Treasury wanted Hammond out of defence (knew too much and too good at his job) but to make him Foreign Sec is a bit weird. The chap is a bean counter, with all the charisma that goes with it, not really an international negotiator type. Ifear Cameron has lost the plot.
    Not at all.

    Safe pair of hands + a nod to the sceptics.

    Should they form the next government, Osborne to FS (to negotiate disengagement) and Hammond, the bean counter, to the counting house.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Guido is ruminating that Truss is going to BIS, Karen Lumley to replace Damien Green and Patience Wheatcroft to Europe (in some capacity?)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Freggles said:

    Where are all these extra women in Cabinet? Do they just get the little jobs

    Ask Gordon Brown
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Fenster said:

    William Hague quit at the very, very top.

    He pulled Angelina Jolie.

    That's better than becoming PM.

    My wife sat next to her on a flight to LA a couple of years back. She's surprisingly normal and understated - really rather nice.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2014
    Jonathan said:

    Will Boris be expressing interest in Richmond seat to stay close to Londoners?

    Not too sure Yorkshire is overly close to London ?!?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Yes that is very good news, but very sorry to see Hague not only leaving the Foreign Office, but standing down as an MP next year as well. He will be a real loss to the Conservative Party and Westminster.
    MikeL said:

    Hague "key campaigning role" - very good news!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    slade said:

    Let's speculate. There appears to be a cull of the 'liberal' Conservative members of the Government. Nick Clegg has said that the next Lib Dem manifesto will be a defence of liberalism rather than moderating the policies of the other two parties. I think the master strategist ( aka George Osborne) is seeking a break up of the coalition and NC is going along with that. Expect a dramatic announcement soon.

    It does have that feel about it doesn't it? At the very least the marriage has got to the point one spouse does not really care what the other thinks anymore.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Kerching 11/4.

    I'm assuming the Paddy Power Politics teams went home at 6pm today

    At Boris' drinky-poo-do?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Fraser Nelson -- Bob Kerslake (head of civil service) has been sacked.

    That is the most significant news of the night.

    Don't remember the last time that happened!

    Great way to bury it as well, under a reshuffle.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Jonathan said:

    Will Boris be expressing interest in Richmond seat to stay close to Londoners?

    It's North Yorkshire, pretty much as far away from London as you can get and stay in England
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Guido suggesting Anna Soubry for Attorney General. Should be worth a few extra votes in Broxtowe
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    For Tory candidates without seats yet, tonight is like Christmas over and over again. All the occupants of ultra safe seats announcing tonight they are standing down next year.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Hammond to FCO, according to ITN.

    If Hammond goes to FCO, not a bad choice. At Defence you learn who your enemies are. He will have good contacts in the US.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    LIAM We will see, but a caliphate stretching to the borders of Europe is not a welcome prospect
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    JackW said:

    Jonathan said:

    Will Boris be expressing interest in Richmond seat to stay close to Londoners?

    Not too sure Yorkshire is overly close to London ?!?

    I know, but don't tell Boris.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Philip Hammond = Foreign Secretary.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The reshuffle features heavily on Tuesday's front pages, with the Daily Telegraph describing it as a "cull of the middle-aged white men".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28303750
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Greg Barker had already been reselected as candidate for Bexhill & Battle before today.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Fenster said:

    William Hague quit at the very, very top.

    He pulled Angelina Jolie.

    That's better than becoming PM.

    LOL - well worth the spillage on the key board.
This discussion has been closed.