Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Oh, you arrived what, in the 1980s? Heard about the Wightese ...
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
SNP lose 2 list seats (they gained 2 constituencies) Lab and Con got a new list to compensate the FPTP losses.
KA BOOM.
Does the Deputy Presiding Officer abstain from votes at Holyrood, as they do in Y Bae?
If not, I can see some fun and games over electing a Presiding Officer - the SNP will want one from the Opposition and the Opposition will be frantically intriguing to get one from the SNP.
There are two DPOs at Holyrood. But they only abstain when actually presiding IIRC.
Wow.
Electing a Presiding Officer could be fun...
General rule in such situations, is try to co-opt an opposition member. Easier than you might think!
Results in my Bucks ward quite interesting. As far as I'm aware this area has been 100% Tory although it is a newly drawn area. 3 councillors to be elected.
The Green who lived in our village topped the poll. The 3 Tories were next but the one who lived in the village was not elected. Possibly people felt he hadn't stood up enough for the village? He had been a councillor for ages. He missed out to the Tory ahead by 8 votes.
The greens took the next two spots with very decent shares. LDs next and Labour were nowhere.
I think in the Shires there is a clear move from Tory to Greens in local elections. I doubt it would be replicated in a GE.
SNP lose 2 list seats (they gained 2 constituencies) Lab and Con got a new list to compensate the FPTP losses.
KA BOOM.
Well called.
How can the experts get this so wrong? I don't begin to understand the list system in Scotland, but John Curtice - lord of all psephologies - was saying the Nats had got 63 MSPs and that's it. Yet here's a 64th.
Surely it is now possible to sit down with a calculator and work out, exactly and precisely and quickly, who will and won't get list seats. Or are they drawing lots?
When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.
The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
It looks to me as if from the Westminster side only the attorney general can refer it to the SC (Scotland Act sec 32/33). Though lawyers may well find another way through.
But a referendum act has to be passed through Westminster as well, so could they just do nothing and sit on their hands instead of going to the SC?
SNP lose 2 list seats (they gained 2 constituencies) Lab and Con got a new list to compensate the FPTP losses.
KA BOOM.
Does the Deputy Presiding Officer abstain from votes at Holyrood, as they do in Y Bae?
If not, I can see some fun and games over electing a Presiding Officer - the SNP will want one from the Opposition and the Opposition will be frantically intriguing to get one from the SNP.
There are two DPOs at Holyrood. But they only abstain when actually presiding IIRC.
Wow.
Electing a Presiding Officer could be fun...
General rule in such situations, is try to co-opt an opposition member. Easier than you might think!
The point is the Opposition might be resistant. The Greens won’t want to give up their influence, the Tories and Labour won’t want to hand a majority to the SNP.
A smart Opposition would of course reflect that with a Unionist in the chair they could simply refuse to table a vote on a referendum on the grounds the Scottish Parliament was acting outside its competencies. However, smart opposition in Scotland is notable chiefly for its absence.
When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.
The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
Didn’t know about the first one. Surely that dooms it anyway? Is Alister Jack really going to wave it through?
Doubt it! Which means England tells Scotland that having voted for something that it has no rights to have it. Which guarantees independence. Take back control remember...
Kate Green, who has constantly let Gavin Williamson off the hook, will stay in place. Amazing if this happens. Williamson is bloody lucky to have her as his shadow.
When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.
The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
Didn’t know about the first one. Surely that dooms it anyway? Is Alister Jack really going to wave it through?
Doubt it! Which means England tells Scotland that having voted for something that it has no rights to have it. Which guarantees independence. Take back control remember...
Ummm - minor point but Alister Jack isn’t English.
Kate Green, who has constantly let Gavin Williamson off the hook, will stay in place. Amazing if this happens. Williamson is bloody lucky to have her as his shadow.
Boris needs to shove the likes of Williamson under the bus....
SNP lose 2 list seats (they gained 2 constituencies) Lab and Con got a new list to compensate the FPTP losses.
KA BOOM.
Does the Deputy Presiding Officer abstain from votes at Holyrood, as they do in Y Bae?
If not, I can see some fun and games over electing a Presiding Officer - the SNP will want one from the Opposition and the Opposition will be frantically intriguing to get one from the SNP.
There are two DPOs at Holyrood. But they only abstain when actually presiding IIRC.
Wow.
Electing a Presiding Officer could be fun...
General rule in such situations, is try to co-opt an opposition member. Easier than you might think!
The point is the Opposition might be resistant. The Greens won’t want to give up their influence, the Tories and Labour won’t want to hand a majority to the SNP.
A smart Opposition would of course reflect that with a Unionist in the chair they could simply refuse to table a vote on a referendum on the grounds the Scottish Parliament was acting outside its competencies. However, smart opposition in Scotland is notable chiefly for its absence.
Did NOT say (or mean) an entire opposition party. Rather ONE individual.
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Congratulations! I hope that they treat you with respect as opposed to treating you like you crawled out from under a rock. I also was elected to my Town Council, as an outsider, in a town that like yours is riddled with what a born and raised there person lovingly described as "parochial bigotry".
Anyway it ended with His Eminence the Mayor posting on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from.
Fascinating to see both Boris Johnson and the BBC preempting an SNP victory. Presumably it suits the former and the latter is supine towards those in power?
Kate Green, who has constantly let Gavin Williamson off the hook, will stay in place. Amazing if this happens. Williamson is bloody lucky to have her as his shadow.
His real shadow would be more effective.
Not a single word from her on all the epic, avoidable, unbelievable fuckups made by the retards at the DfE. She’s been presented with more open goals than a team playing Spurs, and she’s missed the lot.
When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.
The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
Didn’t know about the first one. Surely that dooms it anyway? Is Alister Jack really going to wave it through?
Doubt it! Which means England tells Scotland that having voted for something that it has no rights to have it. Which guarantees independence. Take back control remember...
Scots did not vote for indyref2, 52% of Scots voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties on Thursday.
If the SNP and Alba and Greens had won 60% combined today you might have a point, they did not, Boris is respecting the wishes of the majority of Scots who cast votes that they do not want indyref2 for at least 5 years.
I retain my eternal crown as premier PB Scotch Expert.
Have you not learned over the past year, the BBC have f##k all idea when it comes to numbers.
But they were coming from John Curtice as I understood it. That's why I gave them credence and didn't absolute smash the 64-65 seat band earlier today.
I understand Dodds getting the heave ho, but Jon Ashworth hasn't been terrible.
Ashworth is the best of the lot.
A chap called Johnathan Reynolds appeared on BBC Breakfast the other day. Apparently he’s a shadow minister. Devoid of charisma and bland. He’s as bland as the rest of SKS team. No wonder they aren’t punching through.
Interesting to look at the South Cambridgeshire position - I think I detect some quiet Lib-Lab cooperation there. There are Labour candidates missing in several seats, enabling the LibDems to win 3 from the Tories; converely, the LibDem Mayoral 2nd prefs swung massive to Labour. It wasn't a county-wide deal because Labour continued to take LibDem seats in the city, but nonetheless I sense some cooperation.
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Congratulations! I hope that they treat you with respect as opposed to treating you like you crawled out from under a rock. I also was elected to my Town Council, as an outsider, in a town that like yours is riddled with what a born and raised there person lovingly described as "parochial bigotry".
Anyway it ended with His Eminence the Mayor posting on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from.
Kate Green, who has constantly let Gavin Williamson off the hook, will stay in place. Amazing if this happens. Williamson is bloody lucky to have her as his shadow.
Don't forget the Shadow Home Secretary who is making less impact that the Senedd Member for Torfaen
Anyone unfamiliar with Manchester and Liverpool City Centre local govt public buildings is that they are virtually wall to wall socialist propaganda sheets.Burnham has it easy
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Oh, you arrived what, in the 1980s? Heard about the Wightese ...
I arrived much more recently than that.
One of my rivals’ leaflets claimed her family arrived here in the 1400s. Another councillor mentions his stonemason grandfather built the local church. Etc.
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Congratulations Ian, good to see a number of us are now or have been in the PB town councillor club
When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.
The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
Didn’t know about the first one. Surely that dooms it anyway? Is Alister Jack really going to wave it through?
Doubt it! Which means England tells Scotland that having voted for something that it has no rights to have it. Which guarantees independence. Take back control remember...
Ummm - minor point but Alister Jack isn’t English.
I know that! But he is the Secretary of State for Scotland doing England's bidding on this issue.
SNP lose 2 list seats (they gained 2 constituencies) Lab and Con got a new list to compensate the FPTP losses.
KA BOOM.
Well called.
How can the experts get this so wrong? I don't begin to understand the list system in Scotland, but John Curtice - lord of all psephologies - was saying the Nats had got 63 MSPs and that's it. Yet here's a 64th.
Surely it is now possible to sit down with a calculator and work out, exactly and precisely and quickly, who will and won't get list seats. Or are they drawing lots?
No. Just the quirks. Rrmember you are dividing votes by quite large factors - up to 6 - as part of the process.
SNP lose 2 list seats (they gained 2 constituencies) Lab and Con got a new list to compensate the FPTP losses.
KA BOOM.
Well called.
How can the experts get this so wrong? I don't begin to understand the list system in Scotland, but John Curtice - lord of all psephologies - was saying the Nats had got 63 MSPs and that's it. Yet here's a 64th.
Surely it is now possible to sit down with a calculator and work out, exactly and precisely and quickly, who will and won't get list seats. Or are they drawing lots?
It has ironically meant an election that was going to be described as a disappointment for the SNP as they didn't get a majority now has the take away message of the SNP doing better than expected.
One source: "They have just gifted Angela the next leadership election whenever that may be. I have never witnessed an act of such self harm, this is more stupid than us trying to not adopt the IHRA definition"
“I take full responsibility. And to prove it I’ve just sacked my Deputy”. How can anyone with even a sliver of understanding of political communications come up with an idea like that.
One ex-Corbyn era Labour staffer: "This Angela decision is probably one of the stupidest political decisions a leaders office has made in a very long time. And that includes putting Richard Burgon on the front bench."
I understand Dodds getting the heave ho, but Jon Ashworth hasn't been terrible.
Ashworth is the best of the lot.
A chap called Johnathan Reynolds appeared on BBC Breakfast the other day. Apparently he’s a shadow minister. Devoid of charisma and bland. He’s as bland as the rest of SKS team. No wonder they aren’t punching through.
Don't! That image of Starmer with the punchbag - most pitiful political stunt ever! Even down to the Labour gloves. And then he punched like a six year-old girl. Ouch....
The BBC's polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice projects that Labour will remain the largest party on the London Assembly, with 11 seats - down by one from the result five years ago.
The remaining parties are expected to get:
Conservatives - 9 Greens - 3 Lib Dems - 2 It would mean all three of these parties increase their seats by one from the previous election, because UKIP has not defended its two seats.
"London Labour support has edged down a bit," says Prof Curtice.
Kate Green, who has constantly let Gavin Williamson off the hook, will stay in place. Amazing if this happens. Williamson is bloody lucky to have her as his shadow.
My mum saw Steve Reed talking on the telly yesterday morning and thought he was a lovely, lovely man. Just saying 😁
I understand Dodds getting the heave ho, but Jon Ashworth hasn't been terrible.
Ashworth is the best of the lot.
A chap called Johnathan Reynolds appeared on BBC Breakfast the other day. Apparently he’s a shadow minister. Devoid of charisma and bland. He’s as bland as the rest of SKS team. No wonder they aren’t punching through.
They don't all need to be top of the class for personality. That's just unrealistic but Labour surely need several on the top team who are.
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Congratulations Ian, good to see a number of us are now or have been in the PB town councillor club
Perhaps PBers actually elected to councils, or anything else, could comprise a PB Privy Council?
With a brief but formal meeting in the jacks (coed) at the next great PB get-together!
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Congratulations! I hope that they treat you with respect as opposed to treating you like you crawled out from under a rock. I also was elected to my Town Council, as an outsider, in a town that like yours is riddled with what a born and raised there person lovingly described as "parochial bigotry".
Anyway it ended with His Eminence the Mayor posting on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from.
When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.
The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
Didn’t know about the first one. Surely that dooms it anyway? Is Alister Jack really going to wave it through?
Doubt it! Which means England tells Scotland that having voted for something that it has no rights to have it. Which guarantees independence. Take back control remember...
Westminster might take the view that Scotland can pass, enact and hold an informal referendum which is neither binding nor advisory, keep out of the way, and do nothing except recommend people to have no part in it and explain to the 51% unionist half that it doesn't want a fight with Scotland.
SNP 64 (+1) Conservative 31 (nc) Labour 22 (-2) Green 8 (+2) Lib Dem 4 (-1)
Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.
Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
Seems Rochdale has a LOT to answer for, as LibDems were doing great . . . until HE crossed the Border . . .
Oner could equally well argue, with just as little logic, that it's Mr Johnson's fault for not having come to campaign vigorously on the streets of Scotland - an interesting feature, or rather lacuna, in the campaign.
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Congratulations on your re election
LDs were +2 in Chesterfield one from Lab and one from Con
SNP 64 (+1) Conservative 31 (nc) Labour 22 (-2) Green 8 (+2) Lib Dem 4 (-1)
Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.
Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.
Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.
Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.
Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon
The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.
The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
Didn’t know about the first one. Surely that dooms it anyway? Is Alister Jack really going to wave it through?
Doubt it! Which means England tells Scotland that having voted for something that it has no rights to have it. Which guarantees independence. Take back control remember...
Scots did not vote for indyref2, 52% of Scots voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties on Thursday.
If the SNP and Alba and Greens had won 60% combined today you might have a point, they did not, Boris is respecting the wishes of the majority of Scots who cast votes that they do not want indyref2 for at least 5 years.
I have been away most of today but understand you won your election
Many congratulations and well deserved
I know we have our differences, mainly on Scotland, but if you are as diligent in dealing with your electorate as you are with your analysing of opinion polls, then they will be well served
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.
You really are a tool aren't you.
Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?
The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.
Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.
1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order 2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down 3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament
Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.
As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.
To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.
I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.
Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.
Almost none at Westminster. MInority at Holyrood.
To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.
Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.
What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
Wtf is Starmer thinking. Sacking Rayner and Mandy is completely idiotic. It's almost as if he's purposefully doing the opposite of what voter are telling him right now.
Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.
A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.
Many congratulations on your election to public office
SNP 64 (+1) Conservative 31 (nc) Labour 22 (-2) Green 8 (+2) Lib Dem 4 (-1)
Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.
Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.
Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.
Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.
Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon
The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
It's not a loss, either. And remember the indy vote was stuck at about 25% before the last referendum. So why did Mr Cameron hold it then? All the more reason to have it now.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.
You really are a tool aren't you.
Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?
The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.
Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.
1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order 2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down 3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament
Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.
As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.
To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.
I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.
Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.
Almost none at Westminster. MInority at Holyrood.
To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.
Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.
What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
And yet, when given the chance to leave in 2014, they still said "Fuck the SNP and its independence...."
Wtf is Starmer thinking. Sacking Rayner and Mandy is completely idiotic. It's almost as if he's purposefully doing the opposite of what voter are telling him right now.
He deserves to lose.
Your typo there, but it could in fact been Mandy behind sacking Nandy ( and Rayner ).
Wtf is Starmer thinking. Sacking Rayner and Mandy is completely idiotic. It's almost as if he's purposefully doing the opposite of what voter are telling him right now.
He deserves to lose.
I didn't realise Mandelson was in the shadow cabinet.
Wtf is Starmer thinking. Sacking Rayner and Mandy is completely idiotic. It's almost as if he's purposefully doing the opposite of what voter are telling him right now.
He deserves to lose.
I didn't realise Mandelson was in the shadow cabinet.
SNP 64 (+1) Conservative 31 (nc) Labour 22 (-2) Green 8 (+2) Lib Dem 4 (-1)
Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.
Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.
Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.
Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.
Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon
The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
Of course it's a failure. All the talk was of a majority of votes, a supermajority of seats and a crushing mandate for IndyRef too, because Brexit. YES was ahead, SNP was well ahead and the odds on a majority were 8/11 or even 1/2 for ages.
Instead, they've got almost the exact same result as 2016 (*before* Brexit too place) with just 2-3 extra Green seats.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.
You really are a tool aren't you.
Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?
The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.
Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.
1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order 2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down 3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament
Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.
As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.
To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.
I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.
Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.
Almost none at Westminster. MInority at Holyrood.
To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.
Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.
What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
You do know that Labour and the Lib Dems also oppose indyref2
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.
You really are a tool aren't you.
Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?
The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.
Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.
1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order 2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down 3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament
Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.
As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.
To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.
I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.
Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.
Almost none at Westminster. MInority at Holyrood.
To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.
Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.
What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
And yet, when given the chance to leave in 2014, they still said "Fuck the SNP and its independence...."
So is sacking Rayner the most exciting thing that Starmer has done as Leader ?
Insane, surely ?
Nobody really like SKS *, but Labour thought he was a winner.
The function of a winner is to win. If a winner doesn't do that, he's of no use.
Why Labour thought he was a winner is a mystery. He is an inexperienced politician, who was gifted a safe seat and has never had to really win even a parish council election
* Not quite true. LibDems like OGH are keen on "forensic" Starmer, but they vote Labour anyhow.
SNP 64 (+1) Conservative 31 (nc) Labour 22 (-2) Green 8 (+2) Lib Dem 4 (-1)
Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.
Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.
Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.
Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.
Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon
The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
A record turnout. A record SNP vote. A record number of pro-indy MSPs who have a comfortable majority. Yeah, its a massive win for the union...
If there is any hope of stopping independence it has to be a new constitutional settlement that gives the nations the autonomy they increasingly demand. Or, arrogantly say that only the Tory majority in England counts, and then scratch your head when the UK ceases to exist in a few years.
SNP 64 (+1) Conservative 31 (nc) Labour 22 (-2) Green 8 (+2) Lib Dem 4 (-1)
Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.
Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.
Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.
Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.
Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon
The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
It's not a loss, either. And remember the indy vote was stuck at about 25% before the last referendum. So why did Mr Cameron hold it then? All the more reason to have it now.
It's just not going to happen under Boris, so that's it until 2023 or 2024. I reckon Boris and the Tories will win again then, so that's probably it til about 2028.
Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.
I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.
Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.
You really are a tool aren't you.
Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?
The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.
Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.
1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order 2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down 3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament
Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.
As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.
To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.
I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.
Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.
Almost none at Westminster. MInority at Holyrood.
To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.
Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.
What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
And yet, when given the chance to leave in 2014, they still said "Fuck the SNP and its independence...."
That must hurt. In the butt region.
Tiny dick, not very hurt butt, as the old saying goes.
Comments
Absolute betting goldmine madness.
I retain my eternal crown as premier PB Scotch Expert.
I trust the pizza is free of improper toppings.
The Green who lived in our village topped the poll. The 3 Tories were next but the one who lived in the village was not elected. Possibly people felt he hadn't stood up enough for the village? He had been a councillor for ages. He missed out to the Tory ahead by 8 votes.
The greens took the next two spots with very decent shares. LDs next and Labour were nowhere.
I think in the Shires there is a clear move from Tory to Greens in local elections. I doubt it would be replicated in a GE.
Surely it is now possible to sit down with a calculator and work out, exactly and precisely and quickly, who will and won't get list seats. Or are they drawing lots?
But a referendum act has to be passed through Westminster as well, so could they just do nothing and sit on their hands instead of going to the SC?
Tomorrow's thread will reconfirm it.
A smart Opposition would of course reflect that with a Unionist in the chair they could simply refuse to table a vote on a referendum on the grounds the Scottish Parliament was acting outside its competencies. However, smart opposition in Scotland is notable chiefly for its absence.
https://www.runnymede.gov.uk/media/24291/Surrey-PCC-2021-first-round-result/pdf/Declaration_of_results_First_Stage_-_PARO.pdf?m=637560865972230000
https://www.runnymede.gov.uk/media/24293/SURREY-PCC-election-2021-final-result/pdf/Declaration_of_results_second_Stage_-_PARO.pdf?m=637560991411100000
Under AV I think Hurley might have got quite close to beating the Tory.
Kate Green, who has constantly let Gavin Williamson off the hook, will stay in place. Amazing if this happens. Williamson is bloody lucky to have her as his shadow.
Anyway it ended with His Eminence the Mayor posting on Facebook that I should go back to where I came from.
Not a single word from her on all the epic, avoidable, unbelievable fuckups made by the retards at the DfE. She’s been presented with more open goals than a team playing Spurs, and she’s missed the lot.
If the SNP and Alba and Greens had won 60% combined today you might have a point, they did not, Boris is respecting the wishes of the majority of Scots who cast votes that they do not want indyref2 for at least 5 years.
With that appalling image, I shall head off to bed.
One of my rivals’ leaflets claimed her family arrived here in the 1400s. Another councillor mentions his stonemason grandfather built the local church. Etc.
3 Con
2 Lab
2 Greens
Same as last time
Well done BBC.
The remaining parties are expected to get:
Conservatives - 9
Greens - 3
Lib Dems - 2
It would mean all three of these parties increase their seats by one from the previous election, because UKIP has not defended its two seats.
"London Labour support has edged down a bit," says Prof Curtice.
SNP 64 (+1)
Conservative 31 (nc)
Labour 22 (-2)
Green 8 (+2)
Lib Dem 4 (-1)
Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
With a brief but formal meeting in the jacks (coed) at the next great PB get-together!
As HYUFD rightly points out, a clear mandate against independence... lol
EDIT - have already heard from local LibDem HQ. Not happy to have lost the seat. Very happy to not have lost it to Alex Salmond.
The tactics will be interesting.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1391114025421971457?s=20
So no "party politics aside" congratulations for another "first" BAME MSP - but then he's a Toreeeeee....
LDs were +2 in Chesterfield one from Lab and one from Con
Now 6 Lab, 3 LDs, no Tories
Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.
Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.
Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon
The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
I have been away most of today but understand you won your election
Many congratulations and well deserved
I know we have our differences, mainly on Scotland, but if you are as diligent in dealing with your electorate as you are with your analysing of opinion polls, then they will be well served
All the best
What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
Sarah Jones will be interesting. In a Housing a couple of years ago she argued diametrically opposed cases within about an hour of each other.
He deserves to lose.
All the best
There's HYUFD, JohnO & IanB2 that I know of from this & recent threads.
So far
Khan 39.4%
Bailey 36%
That must hurt. In the butt region.
Instead, they've got almost the exact same result as 2016 (*before* Brexit too place) with just 2-3 extra Green seats.
Fail.
Tories = 31!
Nobody really like SKS *, but Labour thought he was a winner.
The function of a winner is to win. If a winner doesn't do that, he's of no use.
Why Labour thought he was a winner is a mystery. He is an inexperienced politician, who was gifted a safe seat and has never had to really win even a parish council election
* Not quite true. LibDems like OGH are keen on "forensic" Starmer, but they vote Labour anyhow.
If there is any hope of stopping independence it has to be a new constitutional settlement that gives the nations the autonomy they increasingly demand. Or, arrogantly say that only the Tory majority in England counts, and then scratch your head when the UK ceases to exist in a few years.
Your alternative is revolution. Go for it.