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After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    In London only City & East (aka Newham and Tower Hamlets) to declare

    So far
    Khan 39.4%
    Bailey 36%

    Well known marginal, City & East
    Khan will clearly take it, but under-perform. Like everywhere else.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    eek said:

    So is sacking Rayner the most exciting thing that Starmer has done as Leader ?

    Well....


    I never got why Nick Brown was given his post in the first place....
    Chief Whip under Blair, Brown, and Corbyn, he was trusted by all sides.
    Chief Whip under Blair, Brown, and Corbyn, he knows where many skeletons are buried
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    “Keir Starmer said yesterday that he took full responsibility for the election result in Hartlepool & other losses. Instead today he’s scapegoating everyone apart from himself. This isn’t leadership it’s a cowardly avoidance of responsibility.”

    McDonnell

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Well.....


  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Final Holyrood standings

    SNP 64 (+1)
    Conservative 31 (nc)
    Labour 22 (-2)
    Green 8 (+2)
    Lib Dem 4 (-1)

    Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.

    Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
    I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.

    Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.

    Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.

    Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon

    The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
    A record turnout. A record SNP vote. A record number of pro-indy MSPs who have a comfortable majority. Yeah, its a massive win for the union...

    If there is any hope of stopping independence it has to be a new constitutional settlement that gives the nations the autonomy they increasingly demand. Or, arrogantly say that only the Tory majority in England counts, and then scratch your head when the UK ceases to exist in a few years.
    How about offering the SNP full fiscal autonomy?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,078

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    When Holyrood passes the referendum bill the government either overrules and stops it, OR it becomes an officially sanctioned referendum. They can't just ignore it, otherwise the Queen sticks her signature on the bill and the referendum is official.

    The Scotland Act specifically states that any bill passed by the Scottish Parliament that deals with reserved matters has no force in law, so I doubt the Queen would ever see a copy. The Government doesn't have to 'block' it as such, since the first legal challenge would kill it stone dead. Presumably a pro-Union organisation in Scotland would be primed to ask for a judicial ruling on the bill.
    It has to be overruled by the SofS or thrown out by the Supreme Court to have no force in law. Otherwise it becomes law.
    Didn’t know about the first one. Surely that dooms it anyway? Is Alister Jack really going to wave it through?
    Doubt it! Which means England tells Scotland that having voted for something that it has no rights to have it. Which guarantees independence. Take back control remember...
    Ummm - minor point but Alister Jack isn’t English.
    I know that! But he is the Secretary of State for Scotland doing England's bidding on this issue.
    We had this discussion this morning. He's the Uk Secretary of State for Scotland carrying out the UK's policy on this issue.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Word of the day by
    @joncraig
    : STARMERGEDDON
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    DavidL said:

    Starmer is the Labour (male) Theresa May.

    You mean he's going to win every general election he contests as leader?
    May didn't win. She lost Cameron's majority. Apart from that good joke.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Live feed from London declaration


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qcjj7iOemw
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.

    A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.

    Congratulations Ian, good to see a number of us are now or have been in the PB town councillor club
    Perhaps PBers actually elected to councils, or anything else, could comprise a PB Privy Council?

    With a brief but formal meeting in the jacks (coed) at the next great PB get-together!
    Ah, but only District/Borough/Unitaries and Counties count as ‘principal’ councils, so I think the pb Privy Council will comprise solely of Nick Palmer and my own illustrious self. I can happily live with that but as Counties are the Upper Tier, I bag myself as its Lord Serene and Most Exalted High President.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Final Holyrood standings

    SNP 64 (+1)
    Conservative 31 (nc)
    Labour 22 (-2)
    Green 8 (+2)
    Lib Dem 4 (-1)

    Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.

    Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
    I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.

    Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.

    Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.

    Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon

    The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
    A record turnout. A record SNP vote. A record number of pro-indy MSPs who have a comfortable majority. Yeah, its a massive win for the union...

    If there is any hope of stopping independence it has to be a new constitutional settlement that gives the nations the autonomy they increasingly demand. Or, arrogantly say that only the Tory majority in England counts, and then scratch your head when the UK ceases to exist in a few years.
    How about offering the SNP full fiscal autonomy?
    They'll say thanks and then carry on as before.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.

    I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
    Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.

    Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
    52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
    Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.

    You really are a tool aren't you.
    Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?

    The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
    The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.

    Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.

    1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order
    2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down
    3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament

    Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.

    As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
    But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.

    To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
    Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.

    I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.

    Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.

    Almost none at Westminster.
    MInority at Holyrood.

    To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.


    Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.

    What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
    Except that it's England/Westminster which is on top, and has the brute political power, and can fuck little Scotland whenever it likes. So your analogy is not really very accurate, is it?

    You're like some quailing tiny housewife that sort of wants a divorce but also likes the house and the car, and when you get TOO lippy you get smacked upside the head by England, just back from the pub, so you shut up again

    It is the sort of marriage of which Sean Connery might have approved
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656

    Live feed from London declaration


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qcjj7iOemw

    Thanks
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class tickets to avoid murderers who frequent second class? What an excuse.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Final Holyrood standings

    SNP 64 (+1)
    Conservative 31 (nc)
    Labour 22 (-2)
    Green 8 (+2)
    Lib Dem 4 (-1)

    Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.

    Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
    I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.

    Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.

    Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.

    Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon

    The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
    A record turnout. A record SNP vote. A record number of pro-indy MSPs who have a comfortable majority. Yeah, its a massive win for the union...

    If there is any hope of stopping independence it has to be a new constitutional settlement that gives the nations the autonomy they increasingly demand. Or, arrogantly say that only the Tory majority in England counts, and then scratch your head when the UK ceases to exist in a few years.
    Let the SNP set out their plan for independence first, that includes everything, economy, currency, border.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Final Holyrood standings

    SNP 64 (+1)
    Conservative 31 (nc)
    Labour 22 (-2)
    Green 8 (+2)
    Lib Dem 4 (-1)

    Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.

    Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
    I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.

    Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.

    Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.

    Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon

    The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
    It's not a loss, either. And remember the indy vote was stuck at about 25% before the last referendum. So why did Mr Cameron hold it then? All the more reason to have it now.

    It's just not going to happen under Boris, so that's it until 2023 or 2024. I reckon Boris and the Tories will win again then, so that's probably it til about 2028.

    Your alternative is revolution. Go for it.
    It is not a Scotland only question. If it were the Scotland Act would have allowed the Scotland parliament to authorise a referendum without Westminster also legislating. The intention of the deal is plainly that something more than a Scottish mandate is required. The argument and tactics are bound to be in that area. For example: Westminster might draw attention to voting patterns and polling evidence not only about how people would vote but also about whether they actually want a referendum.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Still no result in that London?

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    No. But it IS a more comfortable way to go . . .
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    In London Bailey has outperformed most of the polling by some distance on First preferences.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Not exactly "recovery first":


  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    Maybe Mandelson is advising him to bring back Balls and Cooper instead of these figures. That would not work, I think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class tickets to avoid murderers who frequent second class? What an excuse.
    The proles are revolting. Or something.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    Floater said:

    Word of the day by
    @joncraig
    : STARMERGEDDON

    Starmergeddon outta here?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.

    I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
    Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.

    Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
    52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
    Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.

    You really are a tool aren't you.
    Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?

    The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
    The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.

    Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.

    1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order
    2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down
    3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament

    Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.

    As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
    But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.

    To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
    Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.

    I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.

    Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.

    Almost none at Westminster.
    MInority at Holyrood.

    To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.


    Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.

    What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
    Except that it's England/Westminster which is on top, and has the brute political power, and can fuck little Scotland whenever it likes. So your analogy is not really very accurate, is it?

    You're like some quailing tiny housewife that sort of wants a divorce but also likes the house and the car, and when you get TOO lippy you get smacked upside the head by England, just back from the pub, so you shut up again

    It is the sort of marriage of which Sean Connery might have approved
    Or Boris’s dad.

    I see that you’re coping with Scotland drifting yet further away from project UK with your usual equanimity.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656

    In London only City & East (aka Newham and Tower Hamlets) to declare

    So far
    Khan 39.4%
    Bailey 36%

    What do you think the 1st pref band will be?

    I was on 40 -44.99 thought 1.34 was a great price bit worried now
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    edited May 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    Better than that, protects you from plebs and oiks, which is why I travel first class.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Final Holyrood standings

    SNP 64 (+1)
    Conservative 31 (nc)
    Labour 22 (-2)
    Green 8 (+2)
    Lib Dem 4 (-1)

    Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.

    Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
    I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.

    Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.

    Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.

    Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon

    The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
    A record turnout. A record SNP vote. A record number of pro-indy MSPs who have a comfortable majority. Yeah, its a massive win for the union...

    If there is any hope of stopping independence it has to be a new constitutional settlement that gives the nations the autonomy they increasingly demand. Or, arrogantly say that only the Tory majority in England counts, and then scratch your head when the UK ceases to exist in a few years.
    How about offering the SNP full fiscal autonomy?
    They'll say thanks and then carry on as before.
    That’s what I’d do. But sturgeon would never go for it.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.

    I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
    Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.

    Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
    52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
    Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.

    You really are a tool aren't you.
    Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?

    The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
    The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.

    Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.

    1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order
    2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down
    3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament

    Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.

    As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
    But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.

    To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
    Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.

    I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.

    Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.

    Almost none at Westminster.
    MInority at Holyrood.

    To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.


    Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.

    What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
    And yet, when given the chance to leave in 2014, they still said "Fuck the SNP and its independence...."

    That must hurt. In the butt region.
    Tiny dick, not very hurt butt, as the old saying goes.
    Boy, you'd know about it.....
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Final Holyrood standings

    SNP 64 (+1)
    Conservative 31 (nc)
    Labour 22 (-2)
    Green 8 (+2)
    Lib Dem 4 (-1)

    Well, that's a pro-indy majority gone up, with explicit statements thereof in the party's manifestoes.

    Bit hard cheese on the LDs who lose their funding.
    I remember excitable Nat predictions of a 15-30 pro-indy supermajority when Alba kicked off.

    Instead the SNP failed to get an overall majority. Just a few months back that majority was regarded as certain. So much so I was shouted down, here, for suggesting otherwise.

    Moreover, there were more unionist votes than indy votes.

    Boris should bat aside any indy request, very very politely. There is no huge surge to indy. The polls say most people will vote NO, the same polls, even more emphatically, say most Scots don't want a vote any time soon

    The SNP are trying to reframe this somewhat disappointing outcome as a significant win. It is anything but
    A record turnout. A record SNP vote. A record number of pro-indy MSPs who have a comfortable majority. Yeah, its a massive win for the union...

    If there is any hope of stopping independence it has to be a new constitutional settlement that gives the nations the autonomy they increasingly demand. Or, arrogantly say that only the Tory majority in England counts, and then scratch your head when the UK ceases to exist in a few years.
    How about offering the SNP full fiscal autonomy?
    Never feed a crocodile, Danegeld, pay the mafia, negotiate with terrorists etc.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Not exactly "recovery first":


    SNP + Green = 72!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Not exactly "recovery first":


    Whether you agree with the message or not, whoever is editing this rag REALLY knows their beans.

    Every front page I've seen posted on here so far has been outstanding.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    Evening all :)

    There is a saying "the more things change, the more they stay they same". The truth of course is the better way to ensure things stay the same is for them not to change at all.

    The Scottish Parliament results are a victory for both Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon precisely because nothing will change. She will demand a referendum she doesn't really want safe in the knowledge he will refuse it all day long.

    She can then blame him and use that to bolster her own position. He can use his refusal to look like the champion of the Union and bolster his support. While the SNP and Conservative electorates continue to enjoy the spectacle, the Johnson/Sturgeon waltz will continue ad infinitum.

    Mr Starmer may try to cut in but I suspect he will be given the brush off by Nicola - after all, she won't want the referendum he will offer unless she is absolutely certain she will win and at the moment (and I suspect for the foreseeable) that won't be the case.

    Still waiting here for the last act of the London Mayoral drama to be played out. It does seem (and the East Ham Central by-election does support it) even London has not proven immune to Boris Johnson's advances or Keir Starmer's shortcomings (no sniggering in the cheap seats).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    Better than that, protects you from plebs and oiks, which is why I travel first class.
    Only a Northern Softy would insist on 1st Class travel between Sheffield and Manc :lol:
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    Better than that, plebs and oiks, which is why I travel first class.
    I usually justify the quieter carriage and a guaranteed table for working

    but that doesn't work when you have to be one for the people (and you can only claim second class if on Parliamentary business / expenses). Which is why the local MPs now fly down..
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    Better than that, protects you from plebs and oiks, which is why I travel first class.
    Of course, no one would mistake YOU for a man of the people.

    Except maybe People magazine!
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    In London only City & East (aka Newham and Tower Hamlets) to declare

    So far
    Khan 39.4%
    Bailey 36%

    Rahman will still win by 54m in Tower Hamlets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.

    I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
    Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.

    Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
    52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
    Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.

    You really are a tool aren't you.
    Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?

    The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
    The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.

    Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.

    1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order
    2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down
    3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament

    Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.

    As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
    But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.

    To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
    Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.

    I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.

    Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.

    Almost none at Westminster.
    MInority at Holyrood.

    To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.


    Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.

    What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
    Except that it's England/Westminster which is on top, and has the brute political power, and can fuck little Scotland whenever it likes. So your analogy is not really very accurate, is it?

    You're like some quailing tiny housewife that sort of wants a divorce but also likes the house and the car, and when you get TOO lippy you get smacked upside the head by England, just back from the pub, so you shut up again

    It is the sort of marriage of which Sean Connery might have approved
    Or Boris’s dad.

    I see that you’re coping with Scotland drifting yet further away from project UK with your usual equanimity.
    "drifting"? lol - continents drift faster.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    Are we expecting any polling tonight?

    "Boris Johnson - complete legend or what?"
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    Better than that, protects you from plebs and oiks, which is why I travel first class.
    Only a Northern Softy would insist on 1st Class travel between Sheffield and Manc :lol:
    Essential if you want to keep your fancy apple air bud in your ears! How else do you drown out those awful accents? OMG - I'm roger!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.

    A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.

    Congratulations Ian, good to see a number of us are now or have been in the PB town councillor club
    Perhaps PBers actually elected to councils, or anything else, could comprise a PB Privy Council?

    With a brief but formal meeting in the jacks (coed) at the next great PB get-together!
    Ah, but only District/Borough/Unitaries and Counties count as ‘principal’ councils, so I think the pb Privy Council will comprise solely of Nick Palmer and my own illustrious self. I can happily live with that but as Counties are the Upper Tier, I bag myself as its Lord Serene and Most Exalted High President.
    Congrats, John, from a fellow (sort of) Irishman!

    Keep forgetting just how class conscious you English really are!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    Better than that, plebs and oiks, which is why I travel first class.
    I usually justify the quieter carriage and a guaranteed table for working

    but that doesn't work when you have to be one for the people (and you can only claim second class if on Parliamentary business / expenses). Which is why the local MPs now fly down..
    You wouldn't want to use a train - you might be sat opposite an SNP MP with Covid.....
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Not exactly "recovery first":


    Whether you agree with the message or not, whoever is editing this rag REALLY knows their beans.

    Every front page I've seen posted on here so far has been outstanding.
    Its a Clegg era Lib Dem leaflet that you have to pay for - but not many do..
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Are we expecting any polling tonight?

    "Boris Johnson - complete legend or what?"

    They did a big one on Thursday but the sampling feels a bit dodgy to me, and the processing is taking ages.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.

    I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
    Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.

    Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
    52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
    Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.

    You really are a tool aren't you.
    Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?

    The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
    The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.

    Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.

    1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order
    2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down
    3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament

    Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.

    As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
    But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.

    To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
    Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.

    I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.

    Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.

    Almost none at Westminster.
    MInority at Holyrood.

    To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.


    Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.

    What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
    Except that it's England/Westminster which is on top, and has the brute political power, and can fuck little Scotland whenever it likes. So your analogy is not really very accurate, is it?

    You're like some quailing tiny housewife that sort of wants a divorce but also likes the house and the car, and when you get TOO lippy you get smacked upside the head by England, just back from the pub, so you shut up again

    It is the sort of marriage of which Sean Connery might have approved
    There's poor taste posts... and then there's shite like this.

    Trivialising gender-based violence is never a good look.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited May 2021
    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose the populace with cheering napalm-fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsmen eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Not exactly "recovery first":


    Whether you agree with the message or not, whoever is editing this rag REALLY knows their beans.

    Every front page I've seen posted on here so far has been outstanding.
    Its a Clegg era Lib Dem leaflet that you have to pay for - but not many do..
    Though am guessing they get passed out gratis by the boatload during elections?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    edited May 2021

    Are we expecting any polling tonight?

    "Boris Johnson - complete legend or what?"

    Only 31 MSPs in Scotland?

    Even the SNP got 64! :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    I listened to Patrick Harvie, Scots green leader, tonight who indicted that there needs to be an open discussion on the merits of independence or staying in the union

    It is true that Sturgeon wants to licence oil while the greens want it decommissioning and of course that is presently HMG responsibility

    There us a long way to go on this, and of course in Holyrood Sturgeon will face a united opposition in the conservatives, labour and lib dems

    Expect lots of shouting and accusations across the chamber to the dismay of most Scots, who want the attention on running the economy and not incessant constitutional arguments

    Holyrood 2021 looks like it will be a very angry debating chamber from all sides, sadly
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose theb populace with playful fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsman eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




    Forcing the Scots to look up Boris's kilt? You ARE an inhuman beast!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Are we expecting any polling tonight?

    "Boris Johnson - complete legend or what?"

    They did a big one on Thursday but the sampling feels a bit dodgy to me, and the processing is taking ages.
    Has anyone tried re-weighting it yet, or looking at past recall?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    Leon said:

    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose the populace with cheering napalm-fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsmen eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




    Saturday night drinks again ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose the populace with cheering napalm-fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsmen eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




    Saturday night drinks again ?
    You won't believe me, but no. I am normally like this
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited May 2021
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.

    A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.

    Congratulations.

    I trust the pizza is free of improper toppings.
    It’s my favourite, Waitrose goats cheese and spinach. I am sure Carrie Antoinette wouldn’t approve, but **** her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    Andy_JS said:

    Cambridgeshire/Peterborough Mayor

    - Johnson (Labour & Co-Operative Party): 113994
    - Palmer (The Conservative Party): 108195

    Just goes to show that Boris wins no matter which party he stands for. He's that amazing.
    Even Chuck Norris would lose to Boris.....
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    I listened to Patrick Harvie, Scots green leader,

    I'd recommend a course of antibiotics..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.

    A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.

    Congratulations.

    I trust the pizza is free of improper toppings.
    It’s my favourite, Waitrose goats cheese and spinach. I am sure Carrie Antoinette wouldn’t approve, but **** her.
    I'm not THAT desperate!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    If only she'd claimed that there were no seats and sat on the floor she'd have been fine.
    Sat on the floor? Luxury!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,871
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class protects you from psychopathic killers?
    Better than that, plebs and oiks, which is why I travel first class.
    I usually justify the quieter carriage and a guaranteed table for working

    but that doesn't work when you have to be one for the people (and you can only claim second class if on Parliamentary business / expenses). Which is why the local MPs now fly down..
    I must confess when I travelled a lot from London to Penzance, I treated myself to first class - it's a 5 hour plus journey so you might as well be comfortable was one part of dining.

    I also used to enjoy the dining car (pre GWR) and the second sitting after Exeter - always more civilised then the panic to get people fed before the city. Second sitting would amble through Cornwall with a final coffee at Truro.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    Leon said:

    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose the populace with cheering napalm-fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsmen eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




    Interesting to see what some folk regard as "banter".
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    I don't get the safety angle at all, surely you are safer where there are more people.

    But what is the issue with the deputy leader of the opposition using first class tickets? Why do we have two classes of tickets still if we think it is unreasonable someone that senior uses first class.

    Like much of modern life, it doesn't make much sense!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.

    A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.

    Congratulations.

    I trust the pizza is free of improper toppings.
    It’s my favourite, Waitrose goats cheese and spinach. I am sure Carrie Antoinette wouldn’t approve, but **** her.
    I'm not THAT desperate!
    ...which begs the question: how desperate are you?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    Is Rayner trying to say it's only safe to travel first class?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    If only she'd claimed that there were no seats and sat on the floor she'd have been fine.
    Twitter now saying she is being moved to Health rather than sacked.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,125
    On topic, Burnham is doing well because Manchester is a thriving, metropolitan, University city. Going woke has helped Labour there.

    In large towns and cities not very far away, largely without universities, with traditional values and without the success to herald, Labour are being pummelled.

    I'd be very wary of ascribing any success to Burnham. Weathervanes are good at telling you where the wind is blowing right now, exactly where they are. Not leading. And definitely not setting the agenda.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Andy_JS said:

    Cambridgeshire/Peterborough Mayor

    - Johnson (Labour & Co-Operative Party): 113994
    - Palmer (The Conservative Party): 108195

    Just goes to show that Boris wins no matter which party he stands for. He's that amazing.
    Even Chuck Norris would lose to Boris.....
    Top 10 Chuck Norris Moments
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsabFEisZ2Y

    Note Chuck's politico buddy.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210
    Why is the London count website so basic/crap.

    When do we get on to second preferences ?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Heard about Rayner’s sacking on the car radio driving back from my count. A shock decision; I will be very interested to read comment upthread about it whilst eating my pizza.

    A tiny footnote to election night, but I am pleased to have been re-elected to the town council, fourth out of twelve. Particularly as I am a recent arrival to a town that heavily prizes people with deep local roots.

    Congratulations Ian, good to see a number of us are now or have been in the PB town councillor club
    Perhaps PBers actually elected to councils, or anything else, could comprise a PB Privy Council?

    With a brief but formal meeting in the jacks (coed) at the next great PB get-together!
    Ah, but only District/Borough/Unitaries and Counties count as ‘principal’ councils, so I think the pb Privy Council will comprise solely of Nick Palmer and my own illustrious self. I can happily live with that but as Counties are the Upper Tier, I bag myself as its Lord Serene and Most Exalted High President.
    Congrats, John, from a fellow (sort of) Irishman!

    Keep forgetting just how class conscious you English really are!
    But my first name is Michael so I’m out and proud as Mick O’Reilly (albeit with a plummy BBC-endorsed accent).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930
    Ok. That’s the Scottish election over, and time to admit most of my predictions were wrong.
    Record low turnover. Spectacularly wrong
    Labour more seats than Conservatives. Wrong.
    Alba to win seats. Wrong.
    SNP not to get an overall majority. Only just right.
    Hides head in shame.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.

    I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
    Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.

    Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
    52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
    Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.

    You really are a tool aren't you.
    Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?

    The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
    The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.

    Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.

    1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order
    2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down
    3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament

    Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.

    As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
    But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.

    To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
    Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.

    I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.

    Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.

    Almost none at Westminster.
    MInority at Holyrood.

    To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.


    Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.

    What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
    Except that it's England/Westminster which is on top, and has the brute political power, and can fuck little Scotland whenever it likes. So your analogy is not really very accurate, is it?

    You're like some quailing tiny housewife that sort of wants a divorce but also likes the house and the car, and when you get TOO lippy you get smacked upside the head by England, just back from the pub, so you shut up again

    It is the sort of marriage of which Sean Connery might have approved
    There's poor taste posts... and then there's shite like this.

    Trivialising gender-based violence is never a good look.
    I was just following the example of my hero Sean Connery, a great admirer and widely-welcomed supporter of the SNP


    "The former James Bond star, Sean Connery, returned to his homeland yesterday for the election and said he would come back to live in an independent Scotland. Connery (70), who lives in Spain and the Bahamas, is the most celebrated supporter of the Scottish National Party"

    "Sean Connery often said it was okay to hit a woman. The obits barely mentioned it"


    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/sean-connery-often-said-it-was-okay-to-hit-a-woman-the-obits-barely-mentioned-it-1.4401030

    https://www.centralfifetimes.com/news/national-news/18837105.salmond-hails-connerys-unshakable-support-scottish-independence/
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    I don't get the safety angle at all, surely you are safer where there are more people.

    But what is the issue with the deputy leader of the opposition using first class tickets? Why do we have two classes of tickets still if we think it is unreasonable someone that senior uses first class.

    Like much of modern life, it doesn't make much sense!
    If she was worried about Covid (no matter whether it is rational fear or not), then first class makes sense. She did mention both COVID and safety from attack as her reason.

    Whatever, it surely not a sack-able offence.

    If Labour only want to refund a 2nd class ticket from party funds, fine. But, as a reason to sack someone ... wtf
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Ok. That’s the Scottish election over, and time to admit most of my predictions were wrong.
    Record low turnover. Spectacularly wrong
    Labour more seats than Conservatives. Wrong.
    Alba to win seats. Wrong.
    SNP not to get an overall majority. Only just right.
    Hides head in shame.

    Nobody predicted the Stockholm syndrome effect of Covid.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    Thankfully whoever is advising Boris has a lot more political nous than Leon, as that letter is exactly the way he should be playing things.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Its great fun watching the left fighting one another.. and its only the beginning. .
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Leon said:

    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose the populace with cheering napalm-fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsmen eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




    Very much Edward I approach in 1296.
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    I don't get the safety angle at all, surely you are safer where there are more people.

    But what is the issue with the deputy leader of the opposition using first class tickets? Why do we have two classes of tickets still if we think it is unreasonable someone that senior uses first class.

    Like much of modern life, it doesn't make much sense!
    If she was worried about Covid (no matter whether it is rational fear or not), then first class makes sense. She did mention both COVID and safety from attack as her reason.

    Whatever, it surely not a sack-able offence.

    If Labour only want to refund a 2nd class ticket from party funds, fine. But, as a reason to sack someone ... wtf
    Perhaps just the tip of the iceberg on her behaviour. For such a quick sacking there has to be more than this.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    felix said:

    In London Bailey has outperformed most of the polling by some distance on First preferences.

    Now remind me - didn't the Conservative High Command withdraw his funding? If so, it demonstrates they usually spend it in ways to piss off the voters....
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class tickets to avoid murderers who frequent second class? What an excuse.
    Pretty sure all the murderers on the Orient Express were travelling First Class.
    IF she REALLY wants to travel by rail in safety, should emulate Boxcar Willie.

    Just remembered that in Richard Crossman's Diaries, he refers more than once to his embarrassment having a whole rail compartment by himself as a government minister (required by whomever to protect govt papers he was carrying).

    Said he'd get dirty looks from fellow commuters. And that whenever he spotted Neil Marten MP (a Tory) on the same train (Crossman lived in Banbury, Marten's constituency) he'd invite him in, in part so he (RC, not NM) didn't look like a space-hogger!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    Its great fun watching the left fighting one another.. and its only the beginning. .

    I think Boris got rid of all his leadership rivals very early on didn't he? Lessons for Keir there. He's doing it a lot later and it's a lot messier.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,812

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    I don't get the safety angle at all, surely you are safer where there are more people.

    But what is the issue with the deputy leader of the opposition using first class tickets? Why do we have two classes of tickets still if we think it is unreasonable someone that senior uses first class.

    Like much of modern life, it doesn't make much sense!
    If she was worried about Covid (no matter whether it is rational fear or not), then first class makes sense. She did mention both COVID and safety from attack as her reason.

    Whatever, it surely not a sack-able offence.

    If Labour only want to refund a 2nd class ticket from party funds, fine. But, as a reason to sack someone ... wtf
    If they dont think it is appropriate for someone that senior to travel 1st class, surely an obvious policy would be to abolish it. Is it just for the Queen?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    What is so bad about a chair of a major party going first class ? Honestly we have some funny fetishes about making senior leaders slum it at times .
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Have we got, as a country, basically to a stage where we keep all the major parties happy by just letting them have one territory close to in perpetuity pretty much regardless of what they actually do?

    The SNP, there you go, have Scotland.
    Labour? Wales.
    Conservatives? Have England, and by extension the UK.
    Lib Dems. Um...have Shetland and Orkney.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    Mortimer said:

    On topic, Burnham is doing well because Manchester is a thriving, metropolitan, University city. Going woke has helped Labour there.

    In large towns and cities not very far away, largely without universities, with traditional values and without the success to herald, Labour are being pummelled.

    I'd be very wary of ascribing any success to Burnham. Weathervanes are good at telling you where the wind is blowing right now, exactly where they are. Not leading. And definitely not setting the agenda.

    Greater Manchester is also Rochdale and Oldham and Leigh and Wigan though. It's not just Manchester.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Mortimer said:

    On topic, Burnham is doing well because Manchester is a thriving, metropolitan, University city. Going woke has helped Labour there.

    In large towns and cities not very far away, largely without universities, with traditional values and without the success to herald, Labour are being pummelled.

    I'd be very wary of ascribing any success to Burnham. Weathervanes are good at telling you where the wind is blowing right now, exactly where they are. Not leading. And definitely not setting the agenda.

    That's really inaccurate: Labour is not being pummeled in the north west outside Manchester. It's a mixed picture, but Labour had good results in several towns including Wigan, Preston, Bury and Trafford. Yes, Manchester is the stronghold, but Labour is holding up much better in the North West than in the North East.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Leon said:

    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose the populace with cheering napalm-fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsmen eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




    What time did you decide to hit the sauce in the end?
  • HarryFreemanHarryFreeman Posts: 210

    Labour to lose one London Assembly seat, BBC forecasts

    The BBC's polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice projects that Labour will remain the largest party on the London Assembly, with 11 seats - down by one from the result five years ago.

    The remaining parties are expected to get:

    Conservatives - 9
    Greens - 3
    Lib Dems - 2
    It would mean all three of these parties increase their seats by one from the previous election, because UKIP has not defended its two seats.

    "London Labour support has edged down a bit," says Prof Curtice.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not looking like a good result for us LibDems in Scotland - kept our constituency seats but going to struggle on the list. We do get a change around thanks to the SNP winning more constituency seats and votes cast than ever before, so list seats allocated will be different. Had hoped to pick seats up off the Tories, but the big winners on the list seats will be pro-indy Greens.

    I agree, not looking good. I seem to have been continuously depressed for 11 years from the Orange/Yellow viewpoint.
    Annoyingly the Tory list vote looks likely to have held up despite going backwards in constituencies. So the Greens will pick seats up in regions like mine in the NE, but from us not the Tories.

    Odd that people are still trying to argue that a leap into the 70s of independence MSPs and a record haul in constituency seats and votes for the SNP after 3 terms in government is somehow a defeat for them and for independence. I'm a federalist (so neither a unionist nor a secessionist) but you can't deny how the votes have stacked up both to give nippy a 4th term and to give a thumping majority for a new referendum.
    52% of Scots have voted against indyref2 and for Unionist parties, only 48% for, even before the 2016 EU referendum the Tories and UKIP won 50% of the vote in 2015
    Got it. A record 72 seats (forecasted) for independence is people voting against independence.

    You really are a tool aren't you.
    Yeah, I find the mental gymnastics demonstrated to try and deny the moral case for a new referendum baffling. My conclusion from these results and other polling is that Sturgeon would be terrified to have her bluff called. And even if I’m wrong and the referendum was lost, why do other Englishmen want Scotland kept in the Union against the will of her people?

    The proper safety valve on referendums is that if they lost the second, the SNP really couldn’t push for a third for many, many years without electoral consequences.
    The way forward is simple. The Scottish government will publish a bill for an independence referendum. It will pass thanks to the record majority for independence in Holyrood.

    Westminster then has 4 weeks to make a choice.

    1 Strike down the bill by a Section 35 order
    2 Refer the bill to the Supreme Court with a Section 33 order expecting them to strike it down
    3 Do nothing and let it become an act of the Scottish parliament

    Whether they use S33 or S35, if Westminster overrules the Scottish Parliament who are acting on the express elected mandate from the Scottish people, then Yes will see a big spike in support that will never go away.

    As other posters have said, I expect that a referendum held in the next few years would be a win for No. If Westminster overrules the electorate then independence is guaranteed.
    But there's no need to campaign in it, or to change anything in light of the result. It should be made clear that constitutional change would only result from an officially sanctioned referendum - if the SNP want a massive democratic exercise (others would call it a vanity referendum), that's fine, but the UK Government should express no more than a casual interest.

    To seek to overrule and stop it even happening would, as you suggest, be provocative, and counter-productive, and actually give the proposed poll more legitimacy than it deserves.
    Any idea what is the timing for such a bill in Nicola's head? This year, next, 2023? I think she may try to slow it down a lot.

    I wonder if there is a Westminster argument for competing mandates. If Scotland has already had a referendum and the main UK parties are pro union is it possible to argue that they too have a mandate, at least to wait a number of years before a second one.

    Parliamentary seats is the issue for the Unionists.

    Almost none at Westminster.
    MInority at Holyrood.

    To argue for ang other criterion subverts the entire working of Westminster as a representative democracy, as per Bagehot et aliis.


    Tories who have lost 48 consecutive elections in Scotland since 1959 dictating what Scotland can and can’t do.

    What was that thing about Macron and small dick energy?
    Except that it's England/Westminster which is on top, and has the brute political power, and can fuck little Scotland whenever it likes. So your analogy is not really very accurate, is it?

    You're like some quailing tiny housewife that sort of wants a divorce but also likes the house and the car, and when you get TOO lippy you get smacked upside the head by England, just back from the pub, so you shut up again

    It is the sort of marriage of which Sean Connery might have approved
    There's poor taste posts... and then there's shite like this.

    Trivialising gender-based violence is never a good look.
    I was just following the example of my hero Sean Connery, a great admirer and widely-welcomed supporter of the SNP


    "The former James Bond star, Sean Connery, returned to his homeland yesterday for the election and said he would come back to live in an independent Scotland. Connery (70), who lives in Spain and the Bahamas, is the most celebrated supporter of the Scottish National Party"

    "Sean Connery often said it was okay to hit a woman. The obits barely mentioned it"


    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/sean-connery-often-said-it-was-okay-to-hit-a-woman-the-obits-barely-mentioned-it-1.4401030

    https://www.centralfifetimes.com/news/national-news/18837105.salmond-hails-connerys-unshakable-support-scottish-independence/
    Your he one who posted it pal, not Sean Connery. True colours.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    It's time to be done with this Scottish nonsense

    We need to treat them as William the Bastard treated the Welsh Marches and the North. Build a huge network of Motte and Bailey castles across Scotland, armed with flammenwerfers that play "Jerusalem" as they hose the populace with cheering napalm-fire. Wherever we find some form of primitive "hut" with hairy faced Scotsmen eating their alleged "dinner" of "neeps" from a pewter dish - flatten it, and put up 70 metre high statues of Boris Johnson in a kilt so every Scotsman has to look up and see THAT

    Genetically modify the midge so it injects a face-paralysing venom that makes people talk gibberish and slur like tards - and do this because it will be fun to try and guess with Scotch people have been bitten by the midge, and which just look like this normally

    Make the wearing of tartan a capital offence, except at funerals, thus encouraging funerals, and the early demise of the Caledonian Elderly


    That's day ONE. Nationalism will be gone within the week




    What time did you decide to hit the sauce in the end?
    About an hour from now
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    First class tickets to avoid murderers who frequent second class? What an excuse.
    Pretty sure all the murderers on the Orient Express were travelling First Class.
    You'd be pretty unfortunate though to find yourself travelling in a whole carriage full of murderers.....
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Angela Rayner was sacked hours after opponents leaked info about her conduct on the campaign trail — incl her using 1st class train tickets

    Rayner says she did use them: for safety, travelling alone after Sarah Everard's murder

    New level of toxicity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shaken-keir-starmer-wields-knife-sacking-angela-rayner-as-labour-party-chairwoman-0zbls9dm0

    I don't get the safety angle at all, surely you are safer where there are more people.

    But what is the issue with the deputy leader of the opposition using first class tickets? Why do we have two classes of tickets still if we think it is unreasonable someone that senior uses first class.

    Like much of modern life, it doesn't make much sense!
    If she was worried about Covid (no matter whether it is rational fear or not), then first class makes sense. She did mention both COVID and safety from attack as her reason.

    Whatever, it surely not a sack-able offence.

    If Labour only want to refund a 2nd class ticket from party funds, fine. But, as a reason to sack someone ... wtf
    If they dont think it is appropriate for someone that senior to travel 1st class, surely an obvious policy would be to abolish it. Is it just for the Queen?
    Its how she tried to justify it that is the problem
This discussion has been closed.