In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

ELECTION RESULT

SNP HOLD Moray

SNP: 19,987
CON: 16,823
LAB: 2,972
LIB: 1,165

Not many Brexity fisherfolk there.

I'm just wondering whether the problem for Khan in London may be that a lot of Green voters, and voters for other minor left-wing parties, have refused to give him their second preference as expected.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

Have an innovative idea for a mass transit system based on pneumatic tube technology.

Sorta like old-school drive-in bank teller stations, where you put your withdrawl slip in the carrier thingy, then WOOSH it's transported to the bank clerk, who puts in you money and WOOSHs it back to you. Just upscaled.

Imagine getting into a pneumatic pod, strapping yourself down, and WHOOSHing your way from Harrow to Barking in 2 minutes!

Though why anyone would wish to make such a journey is beyond my ken.

Hyperloop

Dumfriesshire, Tory hold:

Changes:

Con +10%
SNP +4%
Lab -14%
LD -0.3%

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

@Dura_Ace How lethal is this going to be then? Kiwi and guava halves stuff?

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1390715116052701188?s=20

Tanks are just the thing for a land-based power like, say, Germany or France but of limited use on an island with no empire left. I suppose if Scotland goes independent then declares war... but suppose Scotland is the country that inherits the tanks!

I imagine we need a couple of hundred to credibly deter action across the central European plain?

Of course, it requires Germany, Poland and France to do the same etc. or Russia might decide to dance in the Baltics.

NATO needs to deter the Russian invaders. Britain as an island needs to be more concerned about air and sea defences.

Monkeys said:

Boris has had two Falklands moments: Brexit and COVID, and he even chased the French away with boats yesterday. Labour recently suffered their worst defeat since before they had the capacity to form majority government and have been squeezed out of the news ever since.

Yep. Great thumbnail. This is Peak Tory. All value bets are against them until it dawns more widely that this is as Blue as it gets.

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Pagan2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Khan now suffering from Starmers leadership. Turnout is dire.

Struggling to beat the worst Tory Mayoral Candidate ever.

Starmer Out

Can't kick him out yet you need to find a safe seat for Pidcock first so she can become the new leader and messiahess

God, that would be HILARIOUS.

She is out of parliament so it is moot but at least Pidcock gives the impression when speaking that she might be about to say something interesting, whether or not you agree with her. Starmer has not mastered the art of story-telling.

I think Starmer is shockingly poor

Superb and utterly withering analysis by Labour MP Khalid Mahmood. Well worth reading:


More criticism of the Labour party has come in from one of its own MPs - and he doesn't hold back.

Khalid Mahmood - who was until a few weeks ago a shadow defence minister - says: "A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party.

"They mean well, of course, but their politics – obsessed with identity, division and even tech utopianism – have more in common with those of Californian high society than the kind of people who voted in Hartlepool yesterday.

"The loudest voices in the Labour movement over the past year in particular have focused more on pulling down Churchill’s statue than they have on helping people pull themselves up in the world.

"A bit of superficial flag-waving – reinforced by urgent memos from party HQ – isn’t going to fix that.

"We fix that by supporting jobs in these so-called left behind areas – with changes to public procurement, for example, that bring jobs back to the UK and support manufacturing jobs, including those in high tech, advanced manufacturing."

Source: BBC News

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

@Dura_Ace How lethal is this going to be then? Kiwi and guava halves stuff?

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1390715116052701188?s=20

Tanks are just the thing for a land-based power like, say, Germany or France but of limited use on an island with no empire left. I suppose if Scotland goes independent then declares war... but suppose Scotland is the country that inherits the tanks!

I imagine we need a couple of hundred to credibly deter action across the central European plain?

Of course, it requires Germany, Poland and France to do the same etc. or Russia might decide to dance in the Baltics.

NATO needs to deter the Russian invaders. Britain as an island needs to be more concerned about air and sea defences.

We are part of NATO, and our security depends upon keeping Russia at bay.

We need to make a contribution on land too. We're one of three or four (arguably two) serious military players in Europe.

Andy_JS said:

I'm just wondering whether the problem for Khan in London may be that a lot of Green voters, and voters for other minor left-wing parties, have refused to give him their second preference as expected.

Would we know that yet? Have second preferences been published or are they held back until we know who has been eliminated, in case a sudden surge for Count Binface?

Cocky_cockney said:

"We fix that by supporting jobs in these so-called left behind areas – with changes to public procurement, for example, that bring jobs back to the UK and support manufacturing jobs, including those in high tech, advanced manufacturing."

Source: BBC News

That's all well and good but that's exactly what the Conservatives are offering? Why would people risk voting Labour when the Conservatives are promising the exact same thing?

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

You guys need to show more ambition and connect IoW to Southampton so you can go all the way from Newport to Newport.

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

Probably, but there's still the Tory held Westminster seat.

The case for Isle of Wight railways run on peak summer loading, the social and congestion case, and their absolute charm.

I'd argue Ventnor has certainly suffered since the 60s without it, and definitely would benefit from it.

The marketing for IoW (and its railways) in general is utter shite. So many people in London and the home counties don't know you can wizz down there for an amazing weekend by the sea with great seafood in, like, less than 2 hours.

The "drama" in the Rhondda

https://twitter.com/RhysWilliamsBBC/status/1390721463787925507?s=20

Bridgend declares

LAB hold, 12k to Con 8k.

Was apparently a Tory target

Is Khalid Mahmood even on social media? Woke, social media warriors are happier that Labour lost Hartlepool than Tories are for gaining it.

justin124 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Preseli Pembrokeshire

Con hold

Con 39 (-0.2)
Lab 34.6 (+9.3)

That is a pretty good result for Labour.

Welsh Labour doing well under Socialist leader.

What a contrast

squareroot2 said:

Is Wales in play at all. Likely seats breakdown. Is it Labour Plaid coalition?

Plaid have underperformed. Not yet clear what will happen on the list but chance Labour could be in position to govern as a minority.

Tories will also be disappointed and looks like at least to some degree the populist parties (Abolish, Reform and UK) will end up cannibalising each other on the list and end up with very little.

Alistair said:

Mundell smashes it in Dumfriesshire.

I'd be going odds against SNP majority now.

I'm looking for 2.5+ on Betfair on that to trade up & out.

I bought SNP majority at 8/11 (maths may be out because BEER).

moonshine said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

You guys need to show more ambition and connect IoW to Southampton so you can go all the way from Newport to Newport.

Aside from the cost and the technical feasibility (and significant toll charges), a majority of the island is opposed.

Bridgend

Lab 42.0 (-3.3)
Con 28.3 (+3.9)

Carwyn Jones stood down. New AM is Sarah Murphy

IanB2 said:

moonshine said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

You guys need to show more ambition and connect IoW to Southampton so you can go all the way from Newport to Newport.

Aside from the cost and the technical feasibility (and significant toll charges), a majority of the island is opposed.

Might be good economically, but it would ruin the culture and feel of the island.

A bridge/tunnel is sort of a Leave EU argument in reverse.

Finally, some sanity on schools:

https://www.tes.com/news/school-mask-rule-set-end-despite-teacher-opposition

(No, teachers are not opposed. The article is misleading to that extent. Some unions are, especially those representing cleaning staff. Why, I don’t know, as the children are trawling their masks over desks, touching them and then chairs, dropping them on the floor...)

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

Probably, but there's still the Tory held Westminster seat.

The case for Isle of Wight railways run on peak summer loading, the social and congestion case, and their absolute charm.

I'd argue Ventnor has certainly suffered since the 60s without it, and definitely would benefit from it.

The marketing for IoW (and its railways) in general is utter shite. So many people in London and the home counties don't know you can wizz down there for an amazing weekend by the sea with great seafood in, like, less than 2 hours.

For sure. And the town would certainly benefit considerably. The MP is championing the project, and as Tories go I have known far worse, despite the rumours that he only pretends to live on the island.

We are due to get new ex Metropolitan Line rolling stock, to replace our current 1938 vintage carriages, originally targeted for March, then May, now some time in the summer. But I hear the carriages we have coming have very few spare parts, so another fiasco may be in the offing once they start to wear out.

The Conservatives have taken control of Cornwall for the first time - won 46 of the 87 seats.

In Surrey, 60 results in - 35 Conservatives and 25 non-Conservatives.

AndreaParma_82 said:

The "drama" in the Rhondda

https://twitter.com/RhysWilliamsBBC/status/1390721463787925507?s=20

Beach Boys - Help Me Rhonda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUxMupNEno4

kinabalu said:

OJ going in hard now -

"Tony Benn once said there were two types of politician: a signpost and a weathervane. It would be unfair to describe Keir Starmer as the latter, because weathervanes are at least known to point, however fleetingly, in a direction."

Even though it's Owen, I'm not joining in. Going with Starmer might have been a mistake (there are signs that it was) but he should be given a year of post pandemic politics to see if he can create some cut-through.

OJ calling someone a weathervane.....

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

Probably, but there's still the Tory held Westminster seat.

The case for Isle of Wight railways run on peak summer loading, the social and congestion case, and their absolute charm.

I'd argue Ventnor has certainly suffered since the 60s without it, and definitely would benefit from it.

The marketing for IoW (and its railways) in general is utter shite. So many people in London and the home counties don't know you can wizz down there for an amazing weekend by the sea with great seafood in, like, less than 2 hours.

For sure. And the town would certainly benefit considerably. The MP is championing the project, and as Tories go I have known far worse, despite the rumours that he only pretends to live on the island.

We are due to get new ex Metropolitan Line rolling stock, to replace our current 1938 vintage carriages, originally targeted for March, then May, now some time in the summer. But I hear the carriages we have coming have very few spare parts, so another fiasco may be in the offing once they start to wear out.

The "surplus" units will end up getting cannibalised for spares. Same old.

I love Ventnor. Can't wait to visit again. Hope as many shops and restaurants survive as possible.

stodge said:

The Conservatives have taken control of Cornwall for the first time - won 46 of the 87 seats.

In Surrey, 60 results in - 35 Conservatives and 25 non-Conservatives.

Bit of a shock as Julie Iles lost her seat.. big conservative figure down here

SNP hold Midlothian North and Musselburgh

The SNP's Colin Beattie has won Midlothian North and Musselburgh with an increased majority of 7,906.

Labour came second.

[BBC feed]

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

moonshine said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

Anyone.

I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding

Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

(PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)

We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.

(1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
(2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
(3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

£60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.

Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.

You guys need to show more ambition and connect IoW to Southampton so you can go all the way from Newport to Newport.

Aside from the cost and the technical feasibility (and significant toll charges), a majority of the island is opposed.

Might be good economically, but it would ruin the culture and feel of the island.

A bridge/tunnel is sort of a Leave EU argument in reverse.

The arguments are similar to those over the Skye bridge decades back, except that the Skye opponents were mostly visitors, whereas the island opponents mostly live here, or are second home owners.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1390727015142150144

Labour seems to have done quite well in Wales, the vaccine boost seems to apply evenly.

Yes. Drakeford as omnipotent political God was considered an amusing running gag on here.
It may turn out to be not far from true.

JFC https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2021/05/04/honeywell-fined-13-million-for-defense-export-violations/

Louise Scott
@LouiseScottSTV
·
2m
Early prediction for timings for #Dumbarton of 8:30/9pm - both Scottish Labour and SNP saying it’s looking like it will be close.

numbertwelve said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Scott_xP said:

Tomorrow's chip paper...

The Tory donor at the centre of the Downing Street refurbishment row was a trustee of a royal charity when it bought furniture for his home and paid £1 million to his property company, The Times can reveal https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/property-firm-owned-by-tory-donor-in-no11-flat-row-was-paid-1m-by-royal-charity-while-he-was-a-trustee-br6lhq5fh

Starmer needs to do two things with the sleaze allegations swirling round Number 10. First, he needs to nail Boris to the wall so that he must resign. More importantly though, he needs to get the message across to voters that the issue is corruption not wallpaper. The evidence of the yesterday's election results is that he has failed on the politics, even if he can eventually topple the Prime Minister.

The Times story is interesting but is paywalled. What can be seen looks like a loose, easy-come culture, even if there is nothing legally wrong.

There was also a suggestion a couple of days ago that Boris's brother Jo had landed a job with Dyson which if nothing else might explain how they knew each other's mobile numbers.

Labour are really going to struggle to get Boris out over wallpapergate or anything else that came out pre-election now. The Tories will be hanging onto Boris for dear life given these results.

They could still wound him if the drip-drip continues (which could help them in the next elections/2024), but as for anything else, the office of PM is self regulating (save for the boys in blue turning up at Number 10 and taking an incumbent away!) and the pressure to resign goes hand in hand with political pressure, and labours political credibility has taken yet another blow. I don’t think they’ve got the strength to force a PM out of office now, particularly one who has just had a decent night at the polls.

Starmer's platform must be Parliament. He needs to use his forensic legal skills to nail the aura of sleaze and corruption around Number 10, and Boris's tenuous relationship with the truth. He has six questions each week to do so.

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Philip Sim
@BBCPhilipSim
·
6m
Angus Robertson has taken Edinburgh Central for the SNP with an 11.3% majority. Now that definitely is a big win for the SNP - no list seats in the area, so it's a net gain no matter what happens in the region

Philip Sim
@BBCPhilipSim
Replying to
@BBCPhilipSim
SNP still edging steadily closer to that majority. Still winning the seats they need to win, without losing any constituencies of their own. If (*if*) Dumbarton and Aberdeenshire West go the same way, then they can pretty much take the ball home tonight

Tory vote held up reasonably well given Ruth Davidson's departure. Big drop in the Green vote, going to the SNP.

All that talk about tactical voting ...

Taz said:

kinabalu said:

OJ going in hard now -

"Tony Benn once said there were two types of politician: a signpost and a weathervane. It would be unfair to describe Keir Starmer as the latter, because weathervanes are at least known to point, however fleetingly, in a direction."

Even though it's Owen, I'm not joining in. Going with Starmer might have been a mistake (there are signs that it was) but he should be given a year of post pandemic politics to see if he can create some cut-through.

OJ calling someone a weathervane.....

C'mon. Apart from a brief wobble over JC in the early days, he's very unmercurial. You by and large know where he's coming from and what he stands for. And he always works for a Labour win come GE time.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

I'm just wondering whether the problem for Khan in London may be that a lot of Green voters, and voters for other minor left-wing parties, have refused to give him their second preference as expected.

Would we know that yet? Have second preferences been published or are they held back until we know who has been eliminated, in case a sudden surge for Count Binface?

Both main parties have been saying Khan hasn't done as well as expected. It may be total nonsense of course once we get the results.

Andy_JS said:

Carnyx said:

Philip Sim
@BBCPhilipSim
·
6m
Angus Robertson has taken Edinburgh Central for the SNP with an 11.3% majority. Now that definitely is a big win for the SNP - no list seats in the area, so it's a net gain no matter what happens in the region

Philip Sim
@BBCPhilipSim
Replying to
@BBCPhilipSim
SNP still edging steadily closer to that majority. Still winning the seats they need to win, without losing any constituencies of their own. If (*if*) Dumbarton and Aberdeenshire West go the same way, then they can pretty much take the ball home tonight

Tory vote held up reasonably well given Ruth Davidson's departure. Big drop in the Green vote, going to the SNP.

PS And it is also highly significant if Ms Sturgeon departs her position.

WhisperingOracle said:

How are the SNP's prospects for a majority looking ? I haven't been able to follow all the different strands adequately today.

On a knife edge it seems. Will be an independence majority though.

malcolmg said:

FPT
HarryFreeman said:

Cons asking for a recount in Ayr - ouch.

Bad losers as ever t

Surprising they’re such bad losers given how much practice they’ve had in the last 24 years.

nico679 said:

Some strange results in Scotland with clear tactical voting in some areas and no sign of that in others . The SNP majority is still on a knife edge.

They're not even supposed to have a majority - that's a feature not a bug of the modified d'Hondt system. If they do get one then it's been broken (again, after 2010).

Jeremy live on ch4 news! An odd, low key charisma oozing from the man. Oh what have we done?

Andy_JS said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

I'm just wondering whether the problem for Khan in London may be that a lot of Green voters, and voters for other minor left-wing parties, have refused to give him their second preference as expected.

Would we know that yet? Have second preferences been published or are they held back until we know who has been eliminated, in case a sudden surge for Count Binface?

Both main parties have been saying Khan hasn't done as well as expected. It may be total nonsense of course once we get the results.

The Tories appear to have won Havering & Redbridge, possibly by a clear margin, which is remarkable given the demographics, especially in the latter, as well as Labour’s renowned ground game there.

kinabalu said:

Jeremy live on ch4 news! Charisma oozing from the man.

In stark contrast to Starmer.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

nico679 said:

Some strange results in Scotland with clear tactical voting in some areas and no sign of that in others . The SNP majority is still on a knife edge.

On the Edinburgh Central swing the SNP would win a majority but that is a very Remain area.

However if the Banffshire and Buchan South seat is replicated in its neighbouring seat in the more Leave seat of Moray the Tories would gain it and if Labour hold Dumbarton, the LDs win Caithness and Sutherland which they hold at Westminster and the SNP lose list seats to the Greens then there could yet be no SNP majority

The SNP have already held Moray.

Which by contrast with EC was almost a Leave area in the Brexit vote.