To a degree what’s happening with Labour is similar to what’s happened to the Dems in the USA , the latter though are helped by the predominant two party system there .
The Dems got lucky in this cycle with Trumps disastrous pandemic response and picking Biden who managed to win back those key Midwest swing states , there are also a lot more urban areas which can counterbalance the stronger rural GOP vote .
Labour are caught between two stools , trying to relive the glory years with banked in Red Wall voters who hated the Tories austerity policies and the closing down of the mines and swathes of the old industrial heartlands and the urban voters who are socially liberal , more educated and more pro EU .
This loose coalition only holds together when the Tories are seen as the nasty party and who push austerity .
There simply aren’t enough urban votes to compensate for the losses in the Red Wall .
It’s hard to see Labour winning again anytime soon unless the Tories return to austerity or there’s some economic crash .
It gives me no satisfaction to say this as a long time Labour supporter but it’s going to be an immense struggle to get the Tories out of power .
Much less so though, if non-Tory parties finally learn to co-operate after the Liberal/Labour split in progressive ranks of the 1920's. I'm yet to be convinced they've finally learnt that historic lesson yet, though, or if they'll learn it in time to save the Union.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
You should have frequented these threads at the time. I, and plenty of others, mentioned Northern Ireland on various occasions. (The responses from Leavers were mostly nonsensical: 'The Republic will have to leave the EU too then', 'If the EU wants a border it can erect and police it', 'A bit of smuggling will do wonders for trade'.)
God, eight likes. Jesus.
This board really is infested with Remainers these days.
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
And, under our new Integrated Review deterrence posture, we could potentially launch a nuclear strike in response.
@nico679 for a time. But the longer the Tories are in power, the longer they have to juggle the competing interests between their heartlands and their new ex-industrial seats and unlike the SNP in Scotland, they don't have Brexit to bind them together anymore.
I get this argument, and it's a good one with which I have some sympathy, but it is quite cute how some charities are arguing for a lift in the legal marriage age from 16 to 18 at the exact same time some other ones are arguing for a drop in the voting age from 18 to 16:
Here we go again. Government announces great news that prisoners (sorry, residents) can be allowed outside the home without having to quarantine on return to the home.
Firstly, that implies that residents have up to now been able to leave the home albeit with quarantine on return. This is not true. (Plus, as an aside, residents are basically in quarantine in a care home anyway aren't they?)
Secondly, the wonderful new guidance is now out in writing and it states that only the two current nominated visitors are to be allowed to take the resident away for a trip out thus meaning that for many families, such as ours, who have nominated two infirm and elderly family members as nominated visitors (as the younger relatives (like me) are best suited to see relative outdoors) are in effect excluded because the nominated visitors we chose are too frail to push my mum in her wheelchair. So no trips out for mum then.
I've asked the care home to switch one of the nominated visitors to me instead and they have refused because "the government says this is not allowed".
Words fail me.
Care home news has been a persistent area of poor communication and decisions generally, it seems.
I also think that those that run the care homes are shit scared of being blamed/sued when a patient dies, and someone wants to make an issue. Far easier to just lock them up as tight as possible and be intransigent than take the risk.
I would go one stage further than that - they don't want covid in their homes as it takes time to find replacement residents.
There could be an element of truth in that.
Fingers crossed @Stocky the new rules are only for less than a fortnight, there could be a further relaxation in the rules on 17 May.
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
To a degree what’s happening with Labour is similar to what’s happened to the Dems in the USA , the latter though are helped by the predominant two party system there .
The Dems got lucky in this cycle with Trumps disastrous pandemic response and picking Biden who managed to win back those key Midwest swing states , there are also a lot more urban areas which can counterbalance the stronger rural GOP vote .
Labour are caught between two stools , trying to relive the glory years with banked in Red Wall voters who hated the Tories austerity policies and the closing down of the mines and swathes of the old industrial heartlands and the urban voters who are socially liberal , more educated and more pro EU .
This loose coalition only holds together when the Tories are seen as the nasty party and who push austerity .
There simply aren’t enough urban votes to compensate for the losses in the Red Wall .
It’s hard to see Labour winning again anytime soon unless the Tories return to austerity or there’s some economic crash .
It gives me no satisfaction to say this as a long time Labour supporter but it’s going to be an immense struggle to get the Tories out of power .
All true, though it's worth noting that it's not plain sailing for the Conservatives either.
OK, they're the party of Leave. But is that to be super-open global buccaneers, or to close the door and keep the strangers out? Whilst the pat answer is to get the best of both worlds, that plan will struggle to survive contact with reality, or other countries. That's before we consider the remnant of Conservative remainers, or "we like the Common Market but not the Ever Closer Union bit" types.
At the moment, that doesn't matter- largely because the package is held together by the pure chutzpah of BoJo. That may last quite a while, but it won't last forever.
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
To a degree what’s happening with Labour is similar to what’s happened to the Dems in the USA , the latter though are helped by the predominant two party system there .
The Dems got lucky in this cycle with Trumps disastrous pandemic response and picking Biden who managed to win back those key Midwest swing states , there are also a lot more urban areas which can counterbalance the stronger rural GOP vote .
Labour are caught between two stools , trying to relive the glory years with banked in Red Wall voters who hated the Tories austerity policies and the closing down of the mines and swathes of the old industrial heartlands and the urban voters who are socially liberal , more educated and more pro EU .
This loose coalition only holds together when the Tories are seen as the nasty party and who push austerity .
There simply aren’t enough urban votes to compensate for the losses in the Red Wall .
It’s hard to see Labour winning again anytime soon unless the Tories return to austerity or there’s some economic crash .
It gives me no satisfaction to say this as a long time Labour supporter but it’s going to be an immense struggle to get the Tories out of power .
See my post below?
What do you mean "return to austerity", the pandemic has cost a fortune this will be reflected in the tax-take one way or another for decades no matter who is in charge. Are you going to call this "austerity"? Remember that the LP has not opposed the eye-watering amount of money that has been thrown at this crisis.
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
And, under our new Integrated Review deterrence posture, we could potentially launch a nuclear strike in response.
Not going to happen.
I'm not sure I understand this. Jersey wasn't in the EU anyway. So why the changes?
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
On one hand I agree but on the other I argued (and still argue) that he was best available option at the time.
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Burnham? 15/2 fav on oddschecker.
Yes - agree - not a long shot though. And not an MP.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
And, under our new Integrated Review deterrence posture, we could potentially launch a nuclear strike in response.
Not going to happen.
I'm not sure I understand this. Jersey wasn't in the EU anyway. So why the changes?
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Fair enough, but they could at least declare 17 May a done deal. End the “no earlier than” nonsense so adored and oft-quoted by the lockdownistas.
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
The peoples of Jersey and France have so much in common and would get on wonderfully given how they both collaborated with the Germans during WWII.
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
Tend to agree, with one caveat.
If the government continues to muck things up the way they did in 2020, they'll lose, and Starmer will become PM because he's inoffensive and for want of any alternative.
And with this PM and this cabinet, that can't be ruled out.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
You should have frequented these threads at the time. I, and plenty of others, mentioned Northern Ireland on various occasions. (The responses from Leavers were mostly nonsensical: 'The Republic will have to leave the EU too then', 'If the EU wants a border it can erect and police it', 'A bit of smuggling will do wonders for trade'.)
Not to mention excited claims that the Republic would want to rejoin the UK. Haven't seen one of them for a while, mind.
I'm sure that's not true, it's not been long since April 1st.
I was certainly mentioning NI as a major issue to my family friend who was a keen Brexiter, as far back as early 2015. He just couldn't compute. Blanked it. I suspect there has been systematic amnesia and agnosia.
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
Tend to agree, with one caveat.
If the government continues to muck things up the way they did in 2020, they'll lose, and Starmer will become PM because he's inoffensive and for want of any alternative.
And with this PM and this cabinet, that can't be ruled out.
I doubt that will happen as the Tories won’t let it. Johnson will be out if he becomes an electoral liability.
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
The peoples of Jersey and France have so much in common and would get on wonderfully given how they both collaborated with the Germans during WWII.
You must not attribute to moral superiority what is adequately explained by the existence of the English Channel.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Fair enough, but they could at least declare 17 May a done deal. End the “no earlier than” nonsense so adored and oft-quoted by the lockdownistas.
17 May is a done deal, but they can't admit that because the whole point is they're 'analysing the data' coming in. You know the data is as good as it could be, I know the data is as good as it could be, but they're not going to say it yet because they're not prejudicing the data.
Just accept it as a done deal, that's precisely what everybody else is doing.
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
The peoples of Jersey and France have so much in common and would get on wonderfully given how they both collaborated with the Germans during WWII.
You must not attribute to moral superiority what is adequately explained by the existence of the English Channel.
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
Tend to agree, with one caveat.
If the government continues to muck things up the way they did in 2020, they'll lose, and Starmer will become PM because he's inoffensive and for want of any alternative.
And with this PM and this cabinet, that can't be ruled out.
I doubt that will happen as the Tories won’t let it. Johnson will be out if he becomes an electoral liability.
I'm sure that will be tried. But there are a couple of problems. One is the lack of Big Beasts- partly due to the carnage of the Brexit Years and partly due to Johnson's insecurity. The other is that there's nobody in politics with Johnson's ability to persuade people he's on their side, however contradictory that is. Any successor will go one way or the other on issues. And then some part of the Conservative coalition peels off.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Bear in mind that there is no evidence of any variant having any significant impact on vaccine efficacy. Indeed, the evidence is very much the opposite: even the much maligned AstraZeneca appears almost completely effective at reducing transmission and preventing serious infections from even Saffer Covid.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Bear in mind that there is no evidence of any variant having any significant impact on vaccine efficacy. Indeed, the evidence is very much the opposite: even the much maligned AstraZeneca appears almost completely effective at reducing transmission and preventing serious infections from even Saffer Covid.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Fair enough, but they could at least declare 17 May a done deal. End the “no earlier than” nonsense so adored and oft-quoted by the lockdownistas.
17 May is a done deal, but they can't admit that because the whole point is they're 'analysing the data' coming in. You know the data is as good as it could be, I know the data is as good as it could be, but they're not going to say it yet because they're not prejudicing the data.
Just accept it as a done deal, that's precisely what everybody else is doing.
I would note that most US States have opened up despite lower vaccine prevalence, and have managed to do so while still seeing cases dropping.
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
The death of American archeology and science, via Wokeness
‘Acquiescing to tribal religious demands has meant that in some museums women are barred from handling remains. There are many accounts of archaeologists avoiding hypotheses, such as those revolving around the peopling of the Americas, because the research will contradict creation myths.’
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Burnham? 15/2 fav on oddschecker.
The point I made this morning is that whereas a northerner Labour leader will probably not drive away the soft southern Labour luvvies, the reverse is not true.
Who would be your choice for replacing Starmer (which it's clear you want to happen) BJO?
Khan if he can be prised from London for 2024
If its this year i would go for Rayner
Johnson of course said he wouldn't return to Westminster while he was London mayor but it didn't stop him taking a seat in 2015 before the end of his second term.
It's quite possible the end of Khan's second term will coincide with the next GE so he could of course find a seat somewhere in London (East Ham perhaps?) which he can use should he wish to mount a leadership challenge.
Without wishing to get anyone too excited, we could have a London mayoral election on the same day as a GE in May 2024 - fascinating to see who the Labour and Conservative parties might select.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
Tend to agree, with one caveat.
If the government continues to muck things up the way they did in 2020, they'll lose, and Starmer will become PM because he's inoffensive and for want of any alternative.
And with this PM and this cabinet, that can't be ruled out.
It's possible Starmer could win, but that'd be on the basis of knocking the Tories down to 300 seats and forming a rainbow coalition to take over.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Fair enough, but they could at least declare 17 May a done deal. End the “no earlier than” nonsense so adored and oft-quoted by the lockdownistas.
17 May is a done deal, but they can't admit that because the whole point is they're 'analysing the data' coming in. You know the data is as good as it could be, I know the data is as good as it could be, but they're not going to say it yet because they're not prejudicing the data.
Just accept it as a done deal, that's precisely what everybody else is doing.
Well I certainly am, but when I try to arrange things at work eg socials, I keep getting “hopefully”, “let’s see what they say”, “that could change”. The dreaded “no earlier than” has popped up a couple of times too...
I get this argument, and it's a good one with which I have some sympathy, but it is quite cute how some charities are arguing for a lift in the legal marriage age from 16 to 18 at the exact same time some other ones are arguing for a drop in the voting age from 18 to 16:
Whilst I do accept that argument that it is not impossible to argue certain things should be permitted at 16 and others at 18, and therefore to jig around their current statuses, I do find many of the arguments on such things to be self defeating, as they are usually presented in a universal kind of way which would suggest it should be all or nothing.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
Do you disbelief the stories?
This stuff can and does happen. It's insane.
No, but they are less of a danger than millions of unvaccinated Americans because they are Covid-19 deniers who are being fed misinformation by the GOP.
The doctor heading a controversial physician’s advocacy group opposing government involvement in medicine has been announced as a leading witness at a US Senate homeland security and governmental affairs committee hearing on Tuesday.
Jane Orient has rejected any “anti-vaxxer” label but her criticism of coronavirus vaccines has drawn scathing rebukes from some senior politicians infuriated by her invitation to testify to Congress.
“At such a crucial time, giving a platform to conspiracy theorists to spread myths and falsehoods about Covid vaccines is downright dangerous and one of the last things Senate Republicans should be doing right now,” the Senate minority leader and New York Democrat, Chuck Schumer, said in a statement released on Sunday.
Who would be your choice for replacing Starmer (which it's clear you want to happen) BJO?
Khan if he can be prised from London for 2024
If its this year i would go for Rayner
No no no!!!!!
You really think Saddiq Khan is going to win over Red Wall Labour voters?
I think the key to winning over voters is being in the right place at the right time, and yes, having the right person to exploit that. If Khan is talented and the situation is right he could absolutely do it, just as Boris Johnson has been able to energise the votes of people whom, on paper, his background would not suggest he is ideally placed to relate to (this is not to say Khan would be able to mirror what Boris has done, just that the key is thr right sort of talent, and until someone attempts something it is hard to see if they are not right for it).
PP more than double PSOE in Madrid - the latter are just 3 seats ahead of current 3rd place. Extraordinary slap in the face for the national ruling Socialists.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
The mad American creationist right is winning the culture war there. In far more places than the identitarian Twitter warriors are, doing far more damage than the Twitter retweets do.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Sometimes this stuff gets so hideous it backfires.
Check out this guy. He wanted to get a Union Jack and dip it in indigenous blood - real blood - to make an anti-colonialist artwork. He therefore went around tribes asking for donations, and they quite rightly told him he was sick in the head.
It's now been cancelled. The artist has taken the fall. The real scandal though? The owner of the festival and festival director all went along with it:
Looking light for a really bad night for Gammons in London.
Poor Gammons.
And the LDs not regaining 3rd would not be a surprise, but to have had the gap to the Greens increase from 2016 would be a blow. I suppose there's not much market for a, er, market on who will come third anyway.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
Do you disbelief the stories?
This stuff can and does happen. It's insane.
No, but they are less of a danger than millions of unvaccinated Americans because they are Covid-19 deniers who are being fed misinformation by the GOP.
The doctor heading a controversial physician’s advocacy group opposing government involvement in medicine has been announced as a leading witness at a US Senate homeland security and governmental affairs committee hearing on Tuesday.
Jane Orient has rejected any “anti-vaxxer” label but her criticism of coronavirus vaccines has drawn scathing rebukes from some senior politicians infuriated by her invitation to testify to Congress.
“At such a crucial time, giving a platform to conspiracy theorists to spread myths and falsehoods about Covid vaccines is downright dangerous and one of the last things Senate Republicans should be doing right now,” the Senate minority leader and New York Democrat, Chuck Schumer, said in a statement released on Sunday.
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
Tend to agree, with one caveat.
If the government continues to muck things up the way they did in 2020, they'll lose, and Starmer will become PM because he's inoffensive and for want of any alternative.
And with this PM and this cabinet, that can't be ruled out.
It's possible Starmer could win, but that'd be on the basis of knocking the Tories down to 300 seats and forming a rainbow coalition to take over.
I don't think he could beat that.
That's probably right. If Scotland decides to vote overwhelmingly SNP, it's not as easy for the Conservatives to assemble a majority (1992 and 2017 both depended on Scottish Conservative MPs), but it's damn near impossible for Labour.
Currently the municipal map of the Mardid results shows 1 red with most of the rest blue apart frm the undeclared. An interesting contrast to London on Thursday!
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Sometimes this stuff gets so hideous it backfires.
Check out this guy. He wanted to get a Union Jack and dip it in indigenous blood - real blood - to make an anti-colonialist artwork. He therefore went around tribes asking for donations, and they quite rightly told him he was sick in the head.
It's now been cancelled. The artist has taken the fall. The real scandal though? The owner of the festival and festival director all went along with it:
If they wanted to create an artwork out of the teenager's idea of 'provocative' naming of the Butcher's Apron (as used today at any rate) not sure why not just dip the flag in his own blood rather than ask for donations from First Nation people.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Bear in mind that there is no evidence of any variant having any significant impact on vaccine efficacy. Indeed, the evidence is very much the opposite: even the much maligned AstraZeneca appears almost completely effective at reducing transmission and preventing serious infections from even Saffer Covid.
Every time someone uses the word saffer it takes me a second for my brain not to read it as Safavid. Not sure why, silly brain, but it makes quite the difference.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
As a thought on scottish independence....what if we said to the snp everytime you want a referendum you can have one. However there will be a matching referendum in the rest of the union to see if we still want you in it
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
Nah, it's not. My kids school has BHM and BLM lessons and has started taking about "cultures of repression". There's the Birmingham primary school that's teaching primary school kids about white fragility and privilege. And the app my school uses - "Tapestry" - published an article lambasting the Sewell Report, heavily quoting Doreen Lawrence, on the basis "we all know structural and institutional racism is everywhere".
Is it everywhere yet?
No, not yet, but it's in plenty of places already and the point is that it can spread fast and quickly and that's why it's important to challenge it. 10 years ago you could have, rightly, called us loons. 5 years ago you could have accused us of exaggerating. But in the last 2-3 years? It's entered the mainstream. And the perniciousness is accelerating.
It's right to call it out and explain to Heads you won't be party to it.
As a thought on scottish independence....what if we said to the snp everytime you want a referendum you can have one. However there will be a matching referendum in the rest of the union to see if we still want you in it
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Starmer:
- Male (slightly effete) - Southern (very London) - No charisma - Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May) - Remainer (big time.. let's be honest) - Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now - Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
Tend to agree, with one caveat.
If the government continues to muck things up the way they did in 2020, they'll lose, and Starmer will become PM because he's inoffensive and for want of any alternative.
And with this PM and this cabinet, that can't be ruled out.
It's possible Starmer could win, but that'd be on the basis of knocking the Tories down to 300 seats and forming a rainbow coalition to take over.
I don't think he could beat that.
That's probably right. If Scotland decides to vote overwhelmingly SNP, it's not as easy for the Conservatives to assemble a majority (1992 and 2017 both depended on Scottish Conservative MPs), but it's damn near impossible for Labour.
Also, I don't think there's enough Tory fruit for Starmer to pick in England.
There's only so many upper-middle class, metropolitan and student/graduate seats.
The death of American archeology and science, via Wokeness
‘Acquiescing to tribal religious demands has meant that in some museums women are barred from handling remains. There are many accounts of archaeologists avoiding hypotheses, such as those revolving around the peopling of the Americas, because the research will contradict creation myths.’
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
As a thought on scottish independence....what if we said to the snp everytime you want a referendum you can have one. However there will be a matching referendum in the rest of the union to see if we still want you in it
They'd love it.
Well would probably settle the question at least. Always said if they want scots independence they are doing the referendum wrong side of the border
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
I agree. What I don't want is for the government to feel that local restrictions need to be re-introduced anywhere once they are lifted. As I've said, I'm prepared to delay locally by a couple of weeks if necessary for places to catch up, but I'm not feeling that will needed on May 17th yet. June 21st gives a good chance to suppress further and get us to very low rates by September and hopefully come and stay out of lockdown nationally. It is also when second vaccinations are caught up and first vaccinations pick up pace again, so the suppression that gives will help too.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
Fair enough, but they could at least declare 17 May a done deal. End the “no earlier than” nonsense so adored and oft-quoted by the lockdownistas.
17 May is a done deal, but they can't admit that because the whole point is they're 'analysing the data' coming in. You know the data is as good as it could be, I know the data is as good as it could be, but they're not going to say it yet because they're not prejudicing the data.
Just accept it as a done deal, that's precisely what everybody else is doing.
Well I certainly am, but when I try to arrange things at work eg socials, I keep getting “hopefully”, “let’s see what they say”, “that could change”. The dreaded “no earlier than” has popped up a couple of times too...
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
Nah, it's not. My kids school has BHM and BLM lessons and has started taking about "cultures of repression". There's the Birmingham primary school that's teaching primary school kids about white fragility and privilege. And the app my school uses - "Tapestry" - published an article lambasting the Sewell Report, heavily quoting Doreen Lawrence, on the basis "we all know structural and institutional racism is everywhere".
Is it everywhere yet?
No, not yet, but it's in plenty of places already and the point is that it can spread fast and quickly and that's why it's important to challenge it. 10 years ago you could have, rightly, called us loons. 5 years ago you could have accused us of exaggerating. But in the last 2-3 years? It's entered the mainstream. And the perniciousness is accelerating.
It's right to call it out and explain to Heads you won't be party to it.
(PS. I am moving my child)
I think Robert, understandably, doesn’t want to accept that the golden country he moved to is now seized with a dangerous madness, which will damage American society and people
As you rightly note, it’s already infesting British schools and colleges, too
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
And you know what, people won't send their kids to that PRIVATE school.
So the private school will change their curriculum, because otherwise the money will cease coming in.
You veer all over the place like a shopping trolley on this.
I've seen you (lucidly) critique white privilege, racial identity, "defund the police" Woke language and terminology, and call them nuts. I've also seen you say it's grossly exaggerated and all made up/fabricated, and suggested we're nuts.
Conclusion: you see evidence on both sides of the equation and haven't quite made up your mind on what you think about it yet.
Grumble grumble (fires up the VPN) Our European visitors are important to us.
This site is currently unavailable to visitors from the European Economic Area while we work to ensure your data is protected in accordance with applicable EU laws.
Currently the municipal map of the Mardid results shows 1 red with most of the rest blue apart frm the undeclared. An interesting contrast to London on Thursday!
So, will the victorious PP go into coalition with VOX to ensure a majority or will they govern on their own as a minority safe in the knowledge the other parties will never get together? PP seem to have scooped up Citizens votes and seats to build their strong performance.
It's also worth mentioning PP's performance in Madrid last time was their worst historically in a city in which they have usually done very well - they governed as a majority after the 2007 and 2011 elections so tonight is, in a sense, a return to how the politics of Madrid were 15-20 years ago and previously.
It's a city where PP has done well even when struggling in other areas of Spain so perhaps not quite as revolutionary as some on here are suggesting.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
And you know what, people won't send their kids to that PRIVATE school.
So the private school will change their curriculum, because otherwise the money will cease coming in.
You veer all over the place like a shopping trolley on this.
I've seen you (lucidly) critique white privilege, racial identity, "defund the police" Woke language and terminology, and call them nuts. I've also seen you say it's grossly exaggerated and all made up/fabricated, and suggested we're nuts.
Conclusion: you see evidence on both sides of the equation and haven't quite made up your mind on what you think about it yet.
I loathe woke, and I am massively hostile to critical race theory and the like. I think Universities should be actively shutting down departments that promote that kind of psuedoscientific hate.
But I don't see it as an existential threat to the West. Like "blackboard" and political correctness in the UK in the 1980s, there is a huge amount of exaggeration. People share things that alarm them. And the more alarming they are, the more likely they are to be shared.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
And you know what, people won't send their kids to that PRIVATE school.
So the private school will change their curriculum, because otherwise the money will cease coming in.
You veer all over the place like a shopping trolley on this.
I've seen you (lucidly) critique white privilege, racial identity, "defund the police" Woke language and terminology, and call them nuts. I've also seen you say it's grossly exaggerated and all made up/fabricated, and suggested we're nuts.
Conclusion: you see evidence on both sides of the equation and haven't quite made up your mind on what you think about it yet.
I loathe woke, and I am massively hostile to critical race theory and the like. I think Universities should be actively shutting down departments that promote that kind of psuedoscientific hate.
But I don't see it as an existential threat to the West. Like "blackboard" and political correctness in the UK in the 1980s, there is a huge amount of exaggeration. People share things that alarm them. And the more alarming they are, the more likely they are to be shared.
Existential, likely not, though worth keeping an eye on it - there's good motives beyond plenty of things that began some of this stuff, but other bits are just plain barmy.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
And you know what, people won't send their kids to that PRIVATE school.
So the private school will change their curriculum, because otherwise the money will cease coming in.
You veer all over the place like a shopping trolley on this.
I've seen you (lucidly) critique white privilege, racial identity, "defund the police" Woke language and terminology, and call them nuts. I've also seen you say it's grossly exaggerated and all made up/fabricated, and suggested we're nuts.
Conclusion: you see evidence on both sides of the equation and haven't quite made up your mind on what you think about it yet.
I loathe woke, and I am massively hostile to critical race theory and the like. I think Universities should be actively shutting down departments that promote that kind of psuedoscientific hate.
But I don't see it as an existential threat to the West. Like "blackboard" and political correctness in the UK in the 1980s, there is a huge amount of exaggeration. People share things that alarm them. And the more alarming they are, the more likely they are to be shared.
Ok. I'm afraid I do, because I can see how quickly it polarises and divides society. And you forget that some of this stuff is literally attacking the very foundations that nations like the UK, USA, Australia and Canada are built upon - which, for all their faults, represent the light - and how it's taking hold amongst our youth. I've also seen the data on rapid polarisation turbocharged by social media (powerfully presented in that Netflix documentary expose on Twitter and Facebook) and how we desperately need moderation back.
So yes, I do see it as a potential existential threat to the West, I'm afraid. And I don't say that lightly. We all know where racialising society can lead. History has so many warnings.
If I'm wrong it'll be because people heeded the warning and stopped it happening - and then you can say I massively exaggerated (I won't mind) - if I'm right, though, we'll all lose.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
Do you get this antagonised by the American right's anti science stances?
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
No, because the mad American creationist right is not winning the culture war. The mad identitarian American Left IS, and, what’s more, they are exporting their poisonous lunacy across the West. Including the UK. So it matters
American education is just the first great temple to fall
My son is the last year of a public elementary school in Los Angeles. We have seen literally zero indication of any of this.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
No, they’re true. The evidence is overwhelming
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum." via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
And you know what, people won't send their kids to that PRIVATE school.
So the private school will change their curriculum, because otherwise the money will cease coming in.
On this, you’re an idiot. Sorry
Of course there is a lot more to it.
What is Happening maybe overblown by the right wing press and maybe click bait. but there is still A trend there that is seeing people losing jobs and opportunities for not adhering to certain dogma. Especially in further education and the performing arts. I noticed Mary Beard was being attacked on Twitter not for the views she holds but for following ‘TERFS’ on Twitter. James Dreyfus has lost work too simply based in a letter he signed six years ago. Richard Dawkins has been stripped of his humanist of the year award from the nineties for views he recently expressed. It is happening more and more and Will only continue because the people,with power and influence are not the politicians.
With nearly 60% counted the national ruling party PSOE is just 1 seat away from placing 3rd in the Madrid regional election and well uinder half the seats of the Conservative Partido Popular.
Comments
This board really is infested with Remainers these days.
Not going to happen.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56982309
Fingers crossed @Stocky the new rules are only for less than a fortnight, there could be a further relaxation in the rules on 17 May.
OK, they're the party of Leave. But is that to be super-open global buccaneers, or to close the door and keep the strangers out? Whilst the pat answer is to get the best of both worlds, that plan will struggle to survive contact with reality, or other countries. That's before we consider the remnant of Conservative remainers, or "we like the Common Market but not the Ever Closer Union bit" types.
At the moment, that doesn't matter- largely because the package is held together by the pure chutzpah of BoJo. That may last quite a while, but it won't last forever.
- Male (slightly effete)
- Southern (very London)
- No charisma
- Yes, he could do the job well (not the politics - he'd be like a Labour Theresa May)
- Remainer (big time.. let's be honest)
- Patriotic? A tad - at heart he thinks we should be past that now
- Moderately left-wing
Conclusion? He'll get a few extra seats. He'll expunge the far-left. But he won't win.
What do you mean "return to austerity", the pandemic has cost a fortune this will be reflected in the tax-take one way or another for decades no matter who is in charge. Are you going to call this "austerity"? Remember that the LP has not opposed the eye-watering amount of money that has been thrown at this crisis.
If anywhere does need a local delay, I'd still want to see everything lifted everywhere by end of school term.
I don't much fear a full on third wave this winter, I think full escape of a variant is not that common, but local outbreaks could flare up and necessitate lighter but still unwelcome regulation. Lift when we're good and ready, be cautious on foreign travel, we can get to September with near zero cases as a point in time thing, and we can minimise niggly restriction this coming winter.
We will need to keep on top of boosters for a few years at least. If we forget, or just leave things at some point, a smaller winter wave in 2-3 years time would be a distinct possibility.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EdmHSTwmWY
If the government continues to muck things up the way they did in 2020, they'll lose, and Starmer will become PM because he's inoffensive and for want of any alternative.
And with this PM and this cabinet, that can't be ruled out.
Just accept it as a done deal, that's precisely what everybody else is doing.
"When the evil of the snowflake in June
Could still be a source of relief"
If its this year i would go for Rayner
You really think Saddiq Khan is going to win over Red Wall Labour voters?
It's quite possible the end of Khan's second term will coincide with the next GE so he could of course find a seat somewhere in London (East Ham perhaps?) which he can use should he wish to mount a leadership challenge.
Without wishing to get anyone too excited, we could have a London mayoral election on the same day as a GE in May 2024 - fascinating to see who the Labour and Conservative parties might select.
‘William is a biracial teenager in Nevada. He lives in transitional housing with his mother, Gabrielle, who is black and disabled. William works at a local fast food restaurant to support his mother and two siblings. His father died when he was young.’
‘Last year, William took a mandatory, yearlong class called Sociology of Change in which he was asked to reveal his race, gender, religious, and sexual identities and then attach derogatory labels to those identities.’
‘Students were then asked to “undo and unlearn” their “beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors that stem from oppression.” William was understandably reluctant to label himself as “privileged” or an “oppressor.” He refused and was failed.’
https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1370196097918853124?s=21
I cannot believe this given the narrowing in the polls recently. It just beggars belief, if true.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1389657497405960193?s=21
You know the Covid denying and evolution denying beliefs.
https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1389630910828584966
I don't think he could beat that.
American education is just the first great temple to fall
This stuff can and does happen. It's insane.
It's still a comfortable win for Khan of course - Greens at 10% in third - I'm not convinced.
The doctor heading a controversial physician’s advocacy group opposing government involvement in medicine has been announced as a leading witness at a US Senate homeland security and governmental affairs committee hearing on Tuesday.
Jane Orient has rejected any “anti-vaxxer” label but her criticism of coronavirus vaccines has drawn scathing rebukes from some senior politicians infuriated by her invitation to testify to Congress.
“At such a crucial time, giving a platform to conspiracy theorists to spread myths and falsehoods about Covid vaccines is downright dangerous and one of the last things Senate Republicans should be doing right now,” the Senate minority leader and New York Democrat, Chuck Schumer, said in a statement released on Sunday.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/anti-vaccine-doctor-testify-coronavirus-senate-hearing-jane-orient
These are the people that want creationism taught in schools.
So Khan 43, Bailey 31 would be a Lab to Con swing of 2%
PP more than double PSOE in Madrid - the latter are just 3 seats ahead of current 3rd place. Extraordinary slap in the face for the national ruling Socialists.
Zero.
There has been a course on slavery in the US (a bad thing), but that's it.
My daughter is 13.
She has not been taught about "white privilege" or anything similar. I mean they could be saving it for when they're a bit older. But I suspect that there is no big woke reveal.
Indeed, the only thing even vaguely "woke" about their schools is that one has a single transgender toilet, which is apparently the place you go to vape and not be discovered.
I think a lot of the stories on Twitter are simply untrue, or at the least grossly exaggerated.
Look at how worked up you become - these stories are clickbait and share magnets that end up reinforcing this idea that your culture is under attack. When, in fact, kids education is basically the same as it ever was.
Check out this guy. He wanted to get a Union Jack and dip it in indigenous blood - real blood - to make an anti-colonialist artwork. He therefore went around tribes asking for donations, and they quite rightly told him he was sick in the head.
It's now been cancelled. The artist has taken the fall. The real scandal though? The owner of the festival and festival director all went along with it:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56505840.amp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/australian-art-festival-cancels-exhibit-that-asked-for-union-jack-to-be-covered-in-indigenous-peoples-blood-12255202
And the LDs not regaining 3rd would not be a surprise, but to have had the gap to the Greens increase from 2016 would be a blow. I suppose there's not much market for a, er, market on who will come third anyway.
It's moderation we need.
"Paul Rossi, a math teacher at Grace Church School in New York City who 'was relieved of his teaching duties' after he blew the whistle on the private school's critical race theory-based curriculum."
via @theblaze
Check the audio. The head admits they are ‘demonising white kids’. Admits it
https://twitter.com/freethepeople/status/1388576456196820993?s=21
I could post a thousand examples of Woke madness invading American schools and academe. You’d probably still pretend it’s not true
So the private school will change their curriculum, because otherwise the money will cease coming in.
'Pineapple does NOT belong on pizza.'
Is it everywhere yet?
No, not yet, but it's in plenty of places already and the point is that it can spread fast and quickly and that's why it's important to challenge it. 10 years ago you could have, rightly, called us loons. 5 years ago you could have accused us of exaggerating. But in the last 2-3 years? It's entered the mainstream. And the perniciousness is accelerating.
It's right to call it out and explain to Heads you won't be party to it.
(PS. I am moving my child)
‘Dividing by Race Comes to Grade School
‘Students, ages 5 through 11, are urged to ‘check each other’s words and actions’ and become committed activists.’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dividing-by-race-comes-to-grade-school-11615144898
I presume they’re lying, as well
There's only so many upper-middle class, metropolitan and student/graduate seats.
Perhaps like the Mayor of Baker City it is time to call declare a State of Emergency over Wokeness. Yes really:
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1389357014438928384?s=19
As you rightly note, it’s already infesting British schools and colleges, too
I've seen you (lucidly) critique white privilege, racial identity, "defund the police" Woke language and terminology, and call them nuts. I've also seen you say it's grossly exaggerated and all made up/fabricated, and suggested we're nuts.
Conclusion: you see evidence on both sides of the equation and haven't quite made up your mind on what you think about it yet.
Which is rather telling.
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It's also worth mentioning PP's performance in Madrid last time was their worst historically in a city in which they have usually done very well - they governed as a majority after the 2007 and 2011 elections so tonight is, in a sense, a return to how the politics of Madrid were 15-20 years ago and previously.
It's a city where PP has done well even when struggling in other areas of Spain so perhaps not quite as revolutionary as some on here are suggesting.
But I don't see it as an existential threat to the West. Like "blackboard" and political correctness in the UK in the 1980s, there is a huge amount of exaggeration. People share things that alarm them. And the more alarming they are, the more likely they are to be shared.
https://www.gcschool.org/
https://www.riverdale.edu/
Jesus
So yes, I do see it as a potential existential threat to the West, I'm afraid. And I don't say that lightly. We all know where racialising society can lead. History has so many warnings.
If I'm wrong it'll be because people heeded the warning and stopped it happening - and then you can say I massively exaggerated (I won't mind) - if I'm right, though, we'll all lose.
What is Happening maybe overblown by the right wing press and maybe click bait. but there is still A trend there that is seeing people losing jobs and opportunities for not adhering to certain dogma. Especially in further education and the performing arts. I noticed Mary Beard was being attacked on Twitter not for the views she holds but for following ‘TERFS’ on Twitter. James Dreyfus has lost work too simply based in a letter he signed six years ago. Richard Dawkins has been stripped of his humanist of the year award from the nineties for views he recently expressed. It is happening more and more and Will only continue because the people,with power and influence are not the politicians.