If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
I'd hate to see Scotland go.
Make them see the reality of not being subsidised by the rest of the UK FIRST
There was an article in the Speccy about this - a poll was done on the extent to which Scots agree with various statement. Long and short of it, Scots don't believe they are being subsidised by the rest of us.
I have a vague nostalgia for the Britain of my youth, when you could comfortably think of the Highlands of Scotland as just the top end of your country, rather than an entirely foreign country ruled by a hostile power who would be rather happy to see the border closed, who are trying to rewrite history with England as the villains and who give every impression of being keen to ally with anyone as long as it would be against the English. Is Scotland as a whole still welcoming to English people, I wonder? Oh well. Those days are gone, and I don't think they can be brought back.
It's going to be a bloody nuisance redesigning the flag though.
You off your rocker, the empire is gone , we are not some colony to the north. Scotland has shedloads of English people who have moved for a better life out of the rat race. No doubt you were humming "We'll meet again" as you penned that mince.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I can’t reconcile this with the recent national polling (unless they are piling the votes up elsewhere)
IIRC there has been speculation they are piling up votes in Southern and coastal seats, some formerly quite strongly Tory.
This is interesting, because parts of the Tories old "Blue Wall" may also be teetering and looking weaker, at the same time as Labour has its troubles.
PCC elections should provide a guide:
Thames Valley (2016: Lab -8%) Norfolk (2016: Lab -9) Devon & Cornwall (2016: Lab -2) Cambridgeshire (2016: Lab -6) Bedfordshire (2016: Lab -3, won by Lab in 2011)
Labour really should win a majority of those if they're making progress in the Home Counties.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
Panic setting in I see.
Good evening Malc
Not from me as I am confident, as you know, the union will win and the earlier the vote the more likely
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
I agree. Starmer’s picking up votes in blue-remainia, isn’t he?
Labour could put in a surprisingly good performance in Chesham & Amersham.
I actually doubt your last point and wrt the Home counties not sure they would win much in a GE here - potential to make the Tory vote even more efficient.
Well indeed. Analogous to Tyne and Wear. Massive swings to the Tories all this century has left 12 out of 12 Labour seats much more efficiently won.
I do think my home town seat of Sunderland central could go blue for the first time since 1963!
I'm not convinced. Sunderland Central is a university seat after all and is being gentrified, albeit slowly (believe it or not). It also contains the more middle class metropolitan liberal elite parts of Sunderland.
Plus Sunderland/Tyne and Wear generally hasn't exactly been given a ton of Tory red meat to chew on like Teesside.
The council elections on Thursday should be informative.
Gentrified??? Metropolitan liberal elite???
You'll have to let me know where to find the artisan bakers and organic cyclist cafes in Sunderland city centre...
"Metropolitan liberal elite" is relative, of course.
It's a state of mind, not geography.
Same with being a man of the people (gender and/or actualy connection with 'the people' not required)
Some of us are metropolitan liberal elite and a man of the people.
No doubt. Who?
Me.
Well I was recently upgraded to upper class by some friends (they were doing a quiz and it asked them how many upper class people they knew, for this you didn't need a title for to be upper class.)
The test is whether you’d see a home of John Lewis decor and furnishings as a nightmare?
John Lewis is for plebs.
Some of the questions were like
1) Do you have any items from Fortnum & Mason currently in your house
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
But your panicked horror is some of your best work!
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
Anything approaching the polling should be the end of Starmer. You really can't lose your safest seats to an 'unpopular' and 'sleazy' government in such a substantial manner. There's probably only a handful of Labour MPs that could feel remotely 'safe' if the polling is borne out.
(I don't really think it'll be quite so bad for Labour, and I think Starmer will somehow battle on.)
It's a while since any NE seat was amongst Labour's safest.
Sure, but in the 90s this seat was 60% Labour.
Mandelson found himself a very safe seat.
To lose this by (what appears to be) a significant margin when in opposition will be a howler.
True. Any loss in opposition is such. But it was 35% Labour in 2015. The Tories have wrapped up the English Leave vote. And Teesside, and the NE in general, has been trending blue for a long time. As a region it even swung that way in 2017. To say that this would be a surprise would be only to those not paying much attention.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
People will not wait till 2030 , SNP will be toast if not in next couple of years.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
I'd hate to see Scotland go.
Make them see the reality of not being subsidised by the rest of the UK FIRST
There was an article in the Speccy about this - a poll was done on the extent to which Scots agree with various statement. Long and short of it, Scots don't believe they are being subsidised by the rest of us.
I have a vague nostalgia for the Britain of my youth, when you could comfortably think of the Highlands of Scotland as just the top end of your country, rather than an entirely foreign country ruled by a hostile power who would be rather happy to see the border closed, who are trying to rewrite history with England as the villains and who give every impression of being keen to ally with anyone as long as it would be against the English. Is Scotland as a whole still welcoming to English people, I wonder? Oh well. Those days are gone, and I don't think they can be brought back.
It's going to be a bloody nuisance redesigning the flag though.
What Scotch poll are we talking about? Most recent I can find doesn't look that good for indy
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I can’t reconcile this with the recent national polling (unless they are piling the votes up elsewhere)
IIRC there has been speculation they are piling up votes in Southern and coastal seats, some formerly quite strongly Tory.
This is interesting, because parts of the Tories old "Blue Wall" may also be teetering and looking weaker, at the same time as Labour has its troubles.
PCC elections should provide a guide:
Thames Valley (2016: Lab -8%) Norfolk (2016: Lab -9) Devon & Cornwall (2016: Lab -2) Cambridgeshire (2016: Lab -6) Bedfordshire (2016: Lab -3, won by Lab in 2011)
Labour really should win a majority of those if they're making progress in the Home Counties.
Only one of those is Home Counties though. Point taken however. If they don't do relatively well down South then either the regional polling elsewhere, or national ones are simply way off.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Another deluded halfwit that thinks England borrowing money and then pretending it is spent on Scotland is real.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
I completely agree. One of the reasons I cordially despise Cameron is the glib, lightweight way he treated Scotland (as he did Brexit - but there his Etonian luck ran out)
So we have to start unpicking the damage done by 30 years of blithe constitutional neglect
Put everything on the table. Not just Scotland. Voting reform, the Lords, the Monarchy. All of it
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
But your panicked horror is some of your best work!
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Another deluded halfwit that thinks England borrowing money and then pretending it is spent on Scotland is real.
Sorry Malc, I’d forgotten Sunak had said Scottish independence would wreck the UK.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
I agree. Starmer’s picking up votes in blue-remainia, isn’t he?
Labour could put in a surprisingly good performance in Chesham & Amersham.
I actually doubt your last point and wrt the Home counties not sure they would win much in a GE here - potential to make the Tory vote even more efficient.
Well indeed. Analogous to Tyne and Wear. Massive swings to the Tories all this century has left 12 out of 12 Labour seats much more efficiently won.
I do think my home town seat of Sunderland central could go blue for the first time since 1963!
I'm not convinced. Sunderland Central is a university seat after all and is being gentrified, albeit slowly (believe it or not). It also contains the more middle class metropolitan liberal elite parts of Sunderland.
Plus Sunderland/Tyne and Wear generally hasn't exactly been given a ton of Tory red meat to chew on like Teesside.
The council elections on Thursday should be informative.
Gentrified??? Metropolitan liberal elite???
You'll have to let me know where to find the artisan bakers and organic cyclist cafes in Sunderland city centre...
"Metropolitan liberal elite" is relative, of course.
It's a state of mind, not geography.
Same with being a man of the people (gender and/or actualy connection with 'the people' not required)
Some of us are metropolitan liberal elite and a man of the people.
No doubt. Who?
Me.
Well I was recently upgraded to upper class by some friends (they were doing a quiz and it asked them how many upper class people they knew, for this you didn't need a title for to be upper class.)
The test is whether you’d see a home of John Lewis decor and furnishings as a nightmare?
John Lewis is for plebs.
Some of the questions were like
1) Do you have any items from Fortnum & Mason currently in your house
2) Do you have any bespoke tailored items
3) Own or ever owned a performance super car.
4) Can you recite the Greek alphabet
5) Did Boris Johnson tattoo your bum for you when you were schoolboys together? (Before OR after does NOT count.)
The best chance for a Labour comeback in Scotland is with another ref which keeps Scotland in the UK. At that point I think the independence question needs to be put on the backburner for many years and if the SNP can’t deliver an Indy Scotland then some of their support would drain back to Labour .
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
Panic setting in I see.
Good evening Malc
Not from me as I am confident, as you know, the union will win and the earlier the vote the more likely
But then we can agree to disagree
For sure G, it is only a matter of time, the game is up. PS: Good evening to you
If the national polls are right, and the local polls are right, Labour must be piling up huge numbers of votes in its safe seats in places like London, Bristol, Manchester, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
I completely agree. One of the reasons I cordially despise Cameron is the glib, lightweight way he treated Scotland (as he did Brexit - but there his Etonian luck ran out)
So we have to start unpicking the damage done by 30 years of blithe constitutional neglect
Put everything on the table. Not just Scotland. Voting reform, the Lords, the Monarchy. All of it
That’s the thing that frustrates me the most. We’re confronted with a potential breakup of the country, yet we plod on with ridiculous institutions like the House of Lords. Half arsed devolution etc.
The government just isn’t transformative enough, but it doesn’t want to be. Boris Johnson’s government wants to be the party of England, and that’s the path it has chosen to take
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
Anything approaching the polling should be the end of Starmer. You really can't lose your safest seats to an 'unpopular' and 'sleazy' government in such a substantial manner. There's probably only a handful of Labour MPs that could feel remotely 'safe' if the polling is borne out.
(I don't really think it'll be quite so bad for Labour, and I think Starmer will somehow battle on.)
It's a while since any NE seat was amongst Labour's safest.
Sure, but in the 90s this seat was 60% Labour.
Mandelson found himself a very safe seat.
To lose this by (what appears to be) a significant margin when in opposition will be a howler.
True. Any loss in opposition is such. But it was 35% Labour in 2015. The Tories have wrapped up the English Leave vote. And Teesside, and the NE in general, has been trending blue for a long time. As a region it even swung that way in 2017. To say that this would be a surprise would be only to those not paying much attention.
Yep. You make good points. And for a couple of GE I've been betting at long odds on the Tories in all of these constituencies. It's not done me any great favours mind as the bookmakers were already on to it. Wales was far more lucrative.
If Labour should lose by anything like 10% though there's no getting away from the 'trouble' motif.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
I completely agree. One of the reasons I cordially despise Cameron is the glib, lightweight way he treated Scotland (as he did Brexit - but there his Etonian luck ran out)
So we have to start unpicking the damage done by 30 years of blithe constitutional neglect
Put everything on the table. Not just Scotland. Voting reform, the Lords, the Monarchy. All of it
That just isn't the British way. I thought you valued tradition?
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I can’t reconcile this with the recent national polling (unless they are piling the votes up elsewhere)
IIRC there has been speculation they are piling up votes in Southern and coastal seats, some formerly quite strongly Tory.
This is interesting, because parts of the Tories old "Blue Wall" may also be teetering and looking weaker, at the same time as Labour has its troubles.
PCC elections should provide a guide:
Thames Valley (2016: Lab -8%) Norfolk (2016: Lab -9) Devon & Cornwall (2016: Lab -2) Cambridgeshire (2016: Lab -6) Bedfordshire (2016: Lab -3, won by Lab in 2011)
Labour really should win a majority of those if they're making progress in the Home Counties.
Only one of those is Home Counties though. Point taken however. If they don't do relatively well down South then either the regional polling elsewhere, or national ones are simply way off.
I should have re-read my comment before posting! TV is interesting, the Labour candidate is totally awful, but *if* Labour are making any progress it should be a gain for them. 10 of 15 districts voted remain, wealthy, disproportionately graduates etc etc etc.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
The long-term success of the Conservative and (Dis)Unionist Party has been built on continually claiming to be preserving the Union, while all the while promoting, implementing and imposing policies calculated at not only alienating whole geographical sections, but actually driving them to secession.
First Ireland, then Scotland. Next Wales, Cornwall & Rutland?
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
I completely agree. One of the reasons I cordially despise Cameron is the glib, lightweight way he treated Scotland (as he did Brexit - but there his Etonian luck ran out)
So we have to start unpicking the damage done by 30 years of blithe constitutional neglect
Put everything on the table. Not just Scotland. Voting reform, the Lords, the Monarchy. All of it
That’s the thing that frustrates me the most. We’re confronted with a potential breakup of the country, yet we plod on with ridiculous institutions like the House of Lords. Half arsed devolution etc.
The government just isn’t transformative enough, but it doesn’t want to be. Boris Johnson’s government wants to be the party of England, and that’s the path it has chosen to take
This is the frustration. The UK in its current form is unsustainable. It either gets significantly reformed or it falls apart. Johnson and his fanbois say they support the union whilst simultaneously supporting stupidity that increases the chances it falls apart.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
The long-term success of the Conservative and (Dis)Unionist Party has been built on continually claiming to be preserving the Union, while all the while promoting, implementing and imposing policies calculated at not only alienating whole geographical sections, but actually driving them to secession.
First Ireland, then Scotland. Next Wales, Cornwall & Rutland?
Wales is trending Conservative.
Ultimately, if Scotland wants to be a left wing country within the EU, and England wants to be a right wing country outside the EU, there is not a lot of common ground left between us. The alternative is simply to say, we never leave the EU, and never have a right wing government, in order to keep Scotland happy.
On topic, If 17% poll is correct and Labour lose Hartlepool by that margin does anyone think that Starmer will stand down?
Some were saying he would have to resign over PubGate. So doubtless. He is fortunate this isn't a stand alone by election. There will be other stories. Not all as horrific.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
Don’t be so hard on yourself. Properly thinking was never your forte, and you were hardly going to learn it overnight.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
I completely agree. One of the reasons I cordially despise Cameron is the glib, lightweight way he treated Scotland (as he did Brexit - but there his Etonian luck ran out)
So we have to start unpicking the damage done by 30 years of blithe constitutional neglect
Put everything on the table. Not just Scotland. Voting reform, the Lords, the Monarchy. All of it
That just isn't the British way. I thought you valued tradition?
I have a rather modest hope Boris might be planning something like this. I think he certainly knows it’s time to,be constitutionally proactive, not always reactive
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
Don’t be so hard on yourself. Properly thinking was never your forte, and you were hardly going to learn it overnight.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
Even the Modeller of Doom admits this is nearly over.
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 NEW: Prof Neil Ferguson says we now "don’t see any prospect of the NHS being overwhelmed, with the one caveat around variants", in a third wave this summer/autumn
I thought Neil Ferguson had avoided the doom porn and for most of this year was saying once vaccination is complete we're pretty much done in the UK and would just have to live with flu-level outbreaks.
Got a lot of respect for Neil Ferguson. His ‘500,000 deaths’ quote - which received much derision on here - turned out to be bang on: as a reasonable worst case scenario for UK Covid with no mitigation
He then got death threats for a year. Now he’s willing to dial down the doom
The Boffin' Boffin? – is this the very same Professor Ferguson who filled the airwaves preaching to his subjects only to then sneak out to get his end away with a blonde lady?
Is there an established mechanism for how adultery undermines the validity of mathematical forecasts?
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
Don’t be so hard on yourself. Properly thinking was never your forte, and you were hardly going to learn it overnight.
Just been in contact with the compiler of "1001 Books You Must Read Before You Die". He said "Reading your novel is the last thing I'd do", so it seems I have the prime slot in the next edition.
Still lots of optimism in the Liam Byrne campaign. Source describes latest West Midlands polling as "bollocks", saying it doesn't reflect what they're seeing on the ground & Birmingham Labour has recorded most contacts in a week ever. They think it'll be close but Byrne will win.
Still lots of optimism in the Liam Byrne campaign. Source describes latest West Midlands polling as "bollocks", saying it doesn't reflect what they're seeing on the ground & Birmingham Labour has recorded most contacts in a week ever. They think it'll be close but Byrne will win.
No I meant from Byrne, who I assumed she was quoting
. . . Jenner immediately drew attention last month as a celebrity who would be the most prominent transgender political candidate in the nation, but she entered the race to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom without the support of the LGBTQ community in California. She has thus far done little to cement her standing in the nation's most populous state, though she will have her first major campaign interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity on Wednesday. . . .
(BTW, note the odd name for the web address above - Florida?)
Alex Salmond is at the centre of a row about transgender rights over a remark he is reported to have made to the respected broadcaster Jim Spence.
Writing in his latest column for The Courier, Mr Spence claimed the former first minister complained to him the SNP had been “captured by around a hundred loony tune transgender warriors”.
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
Are there any examples anywhere in the UK of devolution - to nations, cities, whatever - bringing any benefits to the people of the devolved-to nation, city etc?
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
Are there any examples anywhere in the UK of devolution - to nations, cities, whatever - bringing any benefits to the people of the devolved-to nation, city etc?
Northern Ireland a partial yes? Depends which people you're talking about!
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
You should have frequented these threads at the time. I, and plenty of others, mentioned Northern Ireland on various occasions. (The responses from Leavers were mostly nonsensical: 'The Republic will have to leave the EU too then', 'If the EU wants a border it can erect and police it', 'A bit of smuggling will do wonders for trade'.)
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
Alex Salmond is at the centre of a row about transgender rights over a remark he is reported to have made to the respected broadcaster Jim Spence.
Writing in his latest column for The Courier, Mr Spence claimed the former first minister complained to him the SNP had been “captured by around a hundred loony tune transgender warriors”.
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
Are there any examples anywhere in the UK of devolution - to nations, cities, whatever - bringing any benefits to the people of the devolved-to nation, city etc?
I imagine the people of the devolved-to nations would be the people to ask. In fact there will be a poll of sorts on the matter on Thursday..
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
You should have frequented these threads at the time. I, and plenty of others, mentioned Northern Ireland on various occasions. (The responses from Leavers were mostly nonsensical: 'The Republic will have to leave the EU too then', 'If the EU wants a border it can erect and police it', 'A bit of smuggling will do wonders for trade'.)
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
There is also the Citizens’ Assembly deliberations about the form of post-Indy Scottish Society to organise and debate as a pre-requisite to a referendum.
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
Anything approaching the polling should be the end of Starmer. You really can't lose your safest seats to an 'unpopular' and 'sleazy' government in such a substantial manner. There's probably only a handful of Labour MPs that could feel remotely 'safe' if the polling is borne out.
(I don't really think it'll be quite so bad for Labour, and I think Starmer will somehow battle on.)
It's a while since any NE seat was amongst Labour's safest.
Sure, but in the 90s this seat was 60% Labour.
Mandelson found himself a very safe seat.
To lose this by (what appears to be) a significant margin when in opposition will be a howler.
True. Any loss in opposition is such. But it was 35% Labour in 2015. The Tories have wrapped up the English Leave vote. And Teesside, and the NE in general, has been trending blue for a long time. As a region it even swung that way in 2017. To say that this would be a surprise would be only to those not paying much attention.
If you start at December 2019, and 1. Shift BXP over to CON 2. Slice off 6% LAB to Grumpy Corbynites 3. Put in a 3-4% CON to LAB national swing
you end up pretty close to this morning's poll.
A bad result for Starmer? Sure. But 1 and 2 are pretty local factors and it's not obvious what he could have done about either of them. It's been a dead Labour seat walking for a while.
And to any Corbynites out there- you're pining for something more left-wing. Fine, I get that. But the current choice is Starmer or Johnson. If you think leaving Johnson in Number 10 is a price worth paying to do down Starmer, that's an honourable position. (As a fully detached Manionite ex-Conservative, I have to say that, having made a similar calculation).
Alex Salmond is at the centre of a row about transgender rights over a remark he is reported to have made to the respected broadcaster Jim Spence.
Writing in his latest column for The Courier, Mr Spence claimed the former first minister complained to him the SNP had been “captured by around a hundred loony tune transgender warriors”.
Here we go again. Government announces great news that prisoners (sorry, residents) can be allowed outside the home without having to quarantine on return to the home.
Firstly, that implies that residents have up to now been able to leave the home albeit with quarantine on return. This is not true. (Plus, as an aside, residents are basically in quarantine in a care home anyway aren't they?)
Secondly, the wonderful new guidance is now out in writing and it states that only the two current nominated visitors are to be allowed to take the resident away for a trip out thus meaning that for many families, such as ours, who have nominated two infirm and elderly family members as nominated visitors (as the younger relatives (like me) are best suited to see relative outdoors) are in effect excluded because the nominated visitors we chose are too frail to push my mum in her wheelchair. So no trips out for mum then.
I've asked the care home to switch one of the nominated visitors to me instead and they have refused because "the government says this is not allowed".
"It is important that the named visitors remain the same people as far as possible. This is important in reducing the risk of transmission, by limiting the number of different people coming into the care home from the community. However, we recognise that there will be situations in which a named visitor cannot continue to visit (for example because of illness). We advise care homes and families to take a pragmatic approach, with the aim of minimising change wherever possible."
Yes, I quoted that very passage to the care home manager this afternoon and got nowhere. Because both of the named visitors are not ill they cannot be replaced, she said.
That really is wilful incompetence. If there is any escalation procedure beyond the manager someone will hopefully see sense.
I've asked that she reconsiders and get back to me in a few days. Beyond this I cannot see what else I can do. Basically the care homes (and thousands of others across the country no doubt) are charging £1000 + + per week to keep old folk hostage. They burble on about their business indemnity assurance. The quality of life of the resident is not paramount it seems.
The problem, to be fair, is that the government makes out that it is doing this that and the other to improve things but this is disingenuous - they have kicked the issue to the individual care homes, who are left interpreting guidelines as they see fit. And they have the power to do this with no-one to appeal to. They take the most cautious interpretation of the government guidelines that it is possible to take - every time.
I wrote a letter to Helen Whateley months ago about the way care home residents are being treated and didn't even get the courtesy of a reply.
Have you considered a lawyer’s letter, maybe quoting Article 8 of the Human Rights Act - right to family life?
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
You should have frequented these threads at the time. I, and plenty of others, mentioned Northern Ireland on various occasions. (The responses from Leavers were mostly nonsensical: 'The Republic will have to leave the EU too then', 'If the EU wants a border it can erect and police it', 'A bit of smuggling will do wonders for trade'.)
Not to mention excited claims that the Republic would want to rejoin the UK. Haven't seen one of them for a while, mind.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
I don't think the Tories have a single voter left around my way. So that's part of it. Hopefully just a small part, though, since such a swap would be electorally inefficient for Labour.
Are there really seats where the Tory vote is zero? Even in seats like East Ham they manage ~15%.
No, not yet. I think we can have a crack at it round here though. Can you imagine if we pulled it off at the next GE? Talk about your badge of honour! - and a great boost for house prices as people in more "diverse" areas hear about it and want a piece.
Tories get 10% of the vote in Labour's safest seat (Walton) and Labour get 13% in the Tory's safest (S Holland). Nowhere near extinction time yet.
True. But there's 3 years to go till the GE and with the contempt that this government has for educated, left/liberal metropolitans I think "Zero Tory" is a feasible stretch goal for London NW3.
The contempt is nowhere near as high as it needs to be. The swamp needs to be drained, but it seems highly unlikely .
An odd way to talk about large numbers of perfectly unexceptional citizens of this country. I'll do you a favour and assume lurid banter.
I think Labour are becoming even more inefficient. In a lot of seats across the South you could give labour 5000 votes and it would make no difference.
Oddly enough, I suspect a heavy defeat in Hartlepool and poor results in other parts of the new Conservative Heartlands (offset, I suspect, by a decent result in London and some surprisingly good results in other parts of the South) won't do Starmer nearly as much harm as some on here think (or hope).
Counter intuitively, I think it will empower him in his mission to change Labour - defeat can be a strong antidote to passivity and stagnation IF it is accepted and understood. Starmer "could" use the defeats in the North and Midlands to (quite accurately) ask some searching questions about why Labour has lost these once staunch areas.
It's also about re-positioning Labour to be in a position to re-capture these votes (or at least get those voters to re-consider Labour) when (and it's when, not if) the situation changes.
I well remember encountering ex-Labour voters in the 1980s who weren't supporting the Conservatives but Margaret Thatcher and we don't know (or he won't until he's gone) the extent to which the "new Tories" in the North and Midlands are more fans of Johnson than the blue rosette.
In the short term, it doesn't matter but one day Johnson will be gone and when he goes the Conservative Party will change (all parties do this when the leader changes to some extent). The question s whether the post-Johnson Conservative Party will be as attractive for the north and midlands - if not, Labour has an opportunity if it is able to take it.
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I mentioned this morning, and others have stated it better as well as presumably before my time here, but we are in the midst of a once in a generation political paradigm shift.
It was visible in 2015 and came to the fore in 2016 with the Brexit result which I think would have been a greater margin than 52:48 had some nutter not murdered Jo Cox. Then it really hit home in 2019 with Boris' huge win.
This isn't just about Brexit. Brexit was an emblem of a pro-British anti-woke realignment amongst a swathe of former northern Labour Red Wall voters. Sir Keir Starmer's ultra Remain, metropolitan, southern Labourites have nothing in common with them.
There are now two Labour parties, as Rochdale Pioneer pointed out this morning. And they are at present completely irreconcilable. The Labour party up north is disappearing.
The unherd piece out today was superb and well worth reading:
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Yes and if they do vote to leave then there's no coming back. Any rejoining would be subject to a vote by the rest of the UK.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
Don’t be so hard on yourself. Properly thinking was never your forte, and you were hardly going to learn it overnight.
The worst thing you can do is taunt someone when they admitted they made a mistake about something. In politics it generates even bigger mistakes.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
There is also the Citizens’ Assembly deliberations about the form of post-Indy Scottish Society to organise and debate as a pre-requisite to a referendum.
Any politician that supports a citizens assembly, beware. They are the vehicle for the educated middle classes to ride roughshod over those who dont make the 'right decisions'. The whole concept is corrupt to the core.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
The long-term success of the Conservative and (Dis)Unionist Party has been built on continually claiming to be preserving the Union, while all the while promoting, implementing and imposing policies calculated at not only alienating whole geographical sections, but actually driving them to secession.
First Ireland, then Scotland. Next Wales, Cornwall & Rutland?
Wales is trending Conservative.
Ultimately, if Scotland wants to be a left wing country within the EU, and England wants to be a right wing country outside the EU, there is not a lot of common ground left between us. The alternative is simply to say, we never leave the EU, and never have a right wing government, in order to keep Scotland happy.
Yes, that's what it boils down to.
But, I'm not convinced it's that black and white. Most Scots (even today) are anti-euro and while they dress slightly to the Left of the English (due to more concentrated land ownership and industrialisation historically) that can be exaggerated too.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
I agree. Starmer’s picking up votes in blue-remainia, isn’t he?
Labour could put in a surprisingly good performance in Chesham & Amersham.
I actually doubt your last point and wrt the Home counties not sure they would win much in a GE here - potential to make the Tory vote even more efficient.
Well indeed. Analogous to Tyne and Wear. Massive swings to the Tories all this century has left 12 out of 12 Labour seats much more efficiently won.
I do think my home town seat of Sunderland central could go blue for the first time since 1963!
I'm not convinced. Sunderland Central is a university seat after all and is being gentrified, albeit slowly (believe it or not). It also contains the more middle class metropolitan liberal elite parts of Sunderland.
Plus Sunderland/Tyne and Wear generally hasn't exactly been given a ton of Tory red meat to chew on like Teesside.
The council elections on Thursday should be informative.
I have lived in Pennywell, was like a series of scenes off Shameless.
I think most of it's gone now. I think Gallowgate may be wrong - the university influence is not as strong - there are a kot of thrifty homeowners there these days. As he says the locals might give a clue but wallpaper gate has come at the wrong time.
The University's influence is no where near as strong as in cities with multiple universities, but it is still a factor. Look at Teesside. Middlesborough stands alone as the last Labour holdout. One possible factor is the university.
This is true - Brighton and Bristol also have two, and are notably tolerant and open-minded places.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
I had thought that Sarwar just might deliver second place behind the SNP. That is not what the polling is showing now though.
If he cannot beat Ross he is rubbish.
Though Ruth Davidson appears more in the Tory campaign than Ross.
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I mentioned this morning, and others have stated it better as well as presumably before my time here, but we are in the midst of a once in a generation political paradigm shift.
It was visible in 2015 and came to the fore in 2016 with the Brexit result which I think would have been a greater margin than 52:48 had some nutter not murdered Jo Cox. Then it really hit home in 2019 with Boris' huge win.
This isn't just about Brexit. Brexit was an emblem of a pro-British anti-woke realignment amongst a swathe of former northern Labour Red Wall voters. Sir Keir Starmer's ultra Remain, metropolitan, southern Labourites have nothing in common with them.
There are now two Labour parties, as Rochdale Pioneer pointed out this morning. And they are at present completely irreconcilable. The Labour party up north is disappearing.
The unherd piece out today was superb and well worth reading:
A key issue at these elections is to see if the predictions of Labour piling up votes in formerly safe Tory Southern and coastal seats also come true. If so both parties have a problem.
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I mentioned this morning, and others have stated it better as well as presumably before my time here, but we are in the midst of a once in a generation political paradigm shift.
It was visible in 2015 and came to the fore in 2016 with the Brexit result which I think would have been a greater margin than 52:48 had some nutter not murdered Jo Cox. Then it really hit home in 2019 with Boris' huge win.
This isn't just about Brexit. Brexit was an emblem of a pro-British anti-woke realignment amongst a swathe of former northern Labour Red Wall voters. Sir Keir Starmer's ultra Remain, metropolitan, southern Labourites have nothing in common with them.
There are now two Labour parties, as Rochdale Pioneer pointed out this morning. And they are at present completely irreconcilable. The Labour party up north is disappearing.
The unherd piece out today was superb and well worth reading:
A key issue to see at these elections is to see if the predictions of Labour piling up votes in formerly safe Tory Southern and coastal seats also come true. If so both parties will have a problem.
We could end up like the US where former safe republican seats went democrat, over time and vice versa.
The death of American education, via Wokeness. A thread
‘In the name of “equity”, California DOE’s 2021 Mathematics Framework attacks the idea of gifted students and eliminates opportunities for accelerated math.
- no grouping students by ability - no Algebra for 8th graders - no Calculus for high schoolers
. . . Jenner immediately drew attention last month as a celebrity who would be the most prominent transgender political candidate in the nation, but she entered the race to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom without the support of the LGBTQ community in California. She has thus far done little to cement her standing in the nation's most populous state, though she will have her first major campaign interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity on Wednesday. . . .
(BTW, note the odd name for the web address above - Florida?)
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
I completely agree. One of the reasons I cordially despise Cameron is the glib, lightweight way he treated Scotland (as he did Brexit - but there his Etonian luck ran out)
So we have to start unpicking the damage done by 30 years of blithe constitutional neglect
Put everything on the table. Not just Scotland. Voting reform, the Lords, the Monarchy. All of it
That’s the thing that frustrates me the most. We’re confronted with a potential breakup of the country, yet we plod on with ridiculous institutions like the House of Lords. Half arsed devolution etc.
The government just isn’t transformative enough, but it doesn’t want to be. Boris Johnson’s government wants to be the party of England, and that’s the path it has chosen to take
This is the frustration. The UK in its current form is unsustainable. It either gets significantly reformed or it falls apart. Johnson and his fanbois say they support the union whilst simultaneously supporting stupidity that increases the chances it falls apart.
A third house in Parliament could be just what the doctor ordered But I agree with points that there needs to be a will to reform the Union if it is to survive and that everything must be on the table. Nigelb, I think, posted an excellent Twitter thread yesterday, from which I read an excellent paper, that explained how the structure of the Union makes such things difficult both constitutionally and politically. I think addressing our constitutional issues is probably one of the most important things we need to do as a nation, but even talking about it (apart from notable exceptions, and even then it's not talked about in those terms) leaves a political party open to claims of esoteric naval gazing when there are [insert hot button topic here].
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
They have to win the thing first..
As long as BJ is there, what worries me is that it shouldn't be too difficult.
Part of me agrees. But the underlying supplementary polling recently has given me some reason to think it would be a no vote.
There was a fascinating focus group today for the times, with people giving SNP their vote because they “liked Sturgeon”, but recoiled in horror at the thought that it may bring about another referendum
(Which also begs the question - what on earth have they missed for the last 14 years)
This from Sky today explains that that a quick indyref2 is not so popular
I think Sturgeon will be under pressure to go for 2022, whilst the economy recovers. There’s too large a part of her party that wants the Indy vote regardless of context..
She is a 'canny' politician and with this poll at 50/50 and yesterday's with no leading 53/47 I expect her to use covid recovery as a reason to delay, hoping the figures move towards independence which they are not at present
Furthermore, there are lots of hurdles for her to go through and not just Boris, but Westminster itself
And I have to say I do believe covid and Brexit has made it very winnable for the union whenever it happens, if it does
Boris will say No, but in the end there will be Sindyref2, as there was a 2nd Quebec vote. Latter half of this decade, nearer 2030, methinks (respecting the ‘generation’ argument but acknowledging Scottish democracy)
In the meantime Unionists need to get some proper arguments above and beyond Fear, and Boris needs to Establish a Constitutional Convention so Scots - and Brits - know who is voting for exactly what, why, and when
The union cannot keep bunging Scotland money. There comes a point when it just exacerbates the divides and feeling of resentment from, yes, the English.
Agreed. But this time no blindfolded referendum voting on a vague promise. Let both sides explicitly set out what they mean by Yes and No
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
Is that like Brexit then, Boris just buys a couple of buses and puts some lies on the side.
If I’d properly thought or even known about the Irish problem I might not have voted Leave (it was a close call anyway)
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
You should have frequented these threads at the time. I, and plenty of others, mentioned Northern Ireland on various occasions. (The responses from Leavers were mostly nonsensical: 'The Republic will have to leave the EU too then', 'If the EU wants a border it can erect and police it', 'A bit of smuggling will do wonders for trade'.)
Not to mention excited claims that the Republic would want to rejoin the UK. Haven't seen one of them for a while, mind.
I'm sure that's not true, it's not been long since April 1st.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
I'd hate to see Scotland go.
Make them see the reality of not being subsidised by the rest of the UK FIRST
There was an article in the Speccy about this - a poll was done on the extent to which Scots agree with various statement. Long and short of it, Scots don't believe they are being subsidised by the rest of us.
I have a vague nostalgia for the Britain of my youth, when you could comfortably think of the Highlands of Scotland as just the top end of your country, rather than an entirely foreign country ruled by a hostile power who would be rather happy to see the border closed, who are trying to rewrite history with England as the villains and who give every impression of being keen to ally with anyone as long as it would be against the English. Is Scotland as a whole still welcoming to English people, I wonder? Oh well. Those days are gone, and I don't think they can be brought back.
It's going to be a bloody nuisance redesigning the flag though.
What Scotch poll are we talking about? Most recent I can find doesn't look that good for indy
The death of American education, via Wokeness. A thread
‘In the name of “equity”, California DOE’s 2021 Mathematics Framework attacks the idea of gifted students and eliminates opportunities for accelerated math.
- no grouping students by ability - no Algebra for 8th graders - no Calculus for high schoolers
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I mentioned this morning, and others have stated it better as well as presumably before my time here, but we are in the midst of a once in a generation political paradigm shift.
It was visible in 2015 and came to the fore in 2016 with the Brexit result which I think would have been a greater margin than 52:48 had some nutter not murdered Jo Cox. Then it really hit home in 2019 with Boris' huge win.
This isn't just about Brexit. Brexit was an emblem of a pro-British anti-woke realignment amongst a swathe of former northern Labour Red Wall voters. Sir Keir Starmer's ultra Remain, metropolitan, southern Labourites have nothing in common with them.
There are now two Labour parties, as Rochdale Pioneer pointed out this morning. And they are at present completely irreconcilable. The Labour party up north is disappearing.
The unherd piece out today was superb and well worth reading:
A key issue at these elections is to see if the predictions of Labour piling up votes in formerly safe Tory Southern and coastal seats also come true. If so both parties have a problem.
Yep Gallowgate and others have been mentioning this but as we haven't seen a brand spanking new national opinion poll it 'might' be that the narrowing last week was simply a reflection of sleazegate, yet entirely transient tumbleweed. In other words, the idea that Labour are piling up votes in the south may not be true.
That's my take. I don't think the sleaze stories are yet strong enough to knock off the palpable vaccine joy as we unlock.
I continue to think the tories will have a very good day Thursday in many parts of the UK. Not Scotland though.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
The long-term success of the Conservative and (Dis)Unionist Party has been built on continually claiming to be preserving the Union, while all the while promoting, implementing and imposing policies calculated at not only alienating whole geographical sections, but actually driving them to secession.
First Ireland, then Scotland. Next Wales, Cornwall & Rutland?
Any more rain and Rutland will be under water anyway.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
If only all those idiot scientists were as bright as MaxPB, we'd be all laughing down the pub.
Sadly they are listening to you and your types and we'll all be locked away forever if it was up to them and you. Face up to it, you would prefer everyone be locked away because some people might get the virus. Neither you nor they know what's best for the rest of us so keep your ultra lockdown, zero COVID bullshit to yourself please.
Personally, I can't see much point in bringing forward pub openings now. It's only another two weeks and any changes will cause confusion. Quite a few businesses around here are already committed to a 17th May opening, using the time until then to refurb and prepare.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
The death of American archeology and science, via Wokeness
‘Acquiescing to tribal religious demands has meant that in some museums women are barred from handling remains. There are many accounts of archaeologists avoiding hypotheses, such as those revolving around the peopling of the Americas, because the research will contradict creation myths.’
Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
Fewer than half of recent Labour voters in Hartlepool say they will back the party in Thursday’s crucial byelection, according to internal data based on the canvassing of more than 10,000 people, leading activists to fear an historic Conservative victory.
Labour insiders said that polling from its ground campaign in the town showed that only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.
Such an outcome would deal a significant blow to Keir Starmer’s leadership and a decisive Conservative win in a north-east England seat that has elected a Labour MP at every parliamentary election since 1964.
Labour sources said they were in “huge trouble” in Hartlepool and also in danger of losing control of Sunderland and Durham councils for the first time in half a century. Voters across England, Scotland and Wales will go to the polls on what has been dubbed “Super Thursday”, in the biggest set of local elections since 1973.
I mentioned this morning, and others have stated it better as well as presumably before my time here, but we are in the midst of a once in a generation political paradigm shift.
It was visible in 2015 and came to the fore in 2016 with the Brexit result which I think would have been a greater margin than 52:48 had some nutter not murdered Jo Cox. Then it really hit home in 2019 with Boris' huge win.
This isn't just about Brexit. Brexit was an emblem of a pro-British anti-woke realignment amongst a swathe of former northern Labour Red Wall voters. Sir Keir Starmer's ultra Remain, metropolitan, southern Labourites have nothing in common with them.
There are now two Labour parties, as Rochdale Pioneer pointed out this morning. And they are at present completely irreconcilable. The Labour party up north is disappearing.
The unherd piece out today was superb and well worth reading:
A key issue at these elections is to see if the predictions of Labour piling up votes in formerly safe Tory Southern and coastal seats also come true. If so both parties have a problem.
To be fair, as a Labour leaning voter, just a straight swap would suit me fine.
If that Scottish poll is right it's a landslide for nationalist parties and we're getting a second IndyRef. The only question is how and when.
God save us.
Step back, make a cup of tea, and consider whether your party’s actions have inexorably driven us towards this sorry state of affairs.
Devolution was done by Labour. Endless unwanted European integration (which blew up with Brexit) was done by an entire class of europhiles from left to right
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Europe is full of examples of how serious devolution has kept the lid on separatist tendencies. It might be more useful to consider whether the UK’s failure to deliver on its panicked promise of “Devomax”, during the last indyref, has contributed to the current state of affairs.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
The long-term success of the Conservative and (Dis)Unionist Party has been built on continually claiming to be preserving the Union, while all the while promoting, implementing and imposing policies calculated at not only alienating whole geographical sections, but actually driving them to secession.
First Ireland, then Scotland. Next Wales, Cornwall & Rutland?
Any more rain and Rutland will be under water anyway.
We've just had the 4th driest April on record according to the Met Office.
To a degree what’s happening with Labour is similar to what’s happened to the Dems in the USA , the latter though are helped by the predominant two party system there .
The Dems got lucky in this cycle with Trumps disastrous pandemic response and picking Biden who managed to win back those key Midwest swing states , there are also a lot more urban areas which can counterbalance the stronger rural GOP vote .
Labour are caught between two stools , trying to relive the glory years with banked in Red Wall voters who hated the Tories austerity policies and the closing down of the mines and swathes of the old industrial heartlands and the urban voters who are socially liberal , more educated and more pro EU .
This loose coalition only holds together when the Tories are seen as the nasty party and who push austerity .
There simply aren’t enough urban votes to compensate for the losses in the Red Wall .
It’s hard to see Labour winning again anytime soon unless the Tories return to austerity or there’s some economic crash .
It gives me no satisfaction to say this as a long time Labour supporter but it’s going to be an immense struggle to get the Tories out of power .
Whilst I'm not predicting that SKS is going anywhere soon, long shots to replace Starmer one day assuming Labour want the best chance to win a GE which involves getting red wall back:
- Male (just saying) - Northern - Charisma - Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10? - Intelligent enough - Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result) - Patriotic enough - Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.
Comments
Brexit or not, the SNP's existence demands independence and even when we were full members of the EU they wanted away
Thames Valley (2016: Lab -8%)
Norfolk (2016: Lab -9)
Devon & Cornwall (2016: Lab -2)
Cambridgeshire (2016: Lab -6)
Bedfordshire (2016: Lab -3, won by Lab in 2011)
Labour really should win a majority of those if they're making progress in the Home Counties.
So I’d make the Tories about 20% responsible for Scottish secessionism - Thatcher was careless
However they haven’t seceded yet, and I still don’t believe they will. But this positive outcome requires unionists to get to work, rather than looking on in panicked horror
Not from me as I am confident, as you know, the union will win and the earlier the vote the more likely
But then we can agree to disagree
Some of the questions were like
1) Do you have any items from Fortnum & Mason currently in your house
2) Do you have any bespoke tailored items
3) Own or ever owned a performance super car.
4) Can you recite the Greek alphabet
Scots and Brits deserve no less. If we’re going to break up one of the most successful countries in the world, it needs to be done with due diligence
But it was 35% Labour in 2015.
The Tories have wrapped up the English Leave vote. And Teesside, and the NE in general, has been trending blue for a long time. As a region it even swung that way in 2017.
To say that this would be a surprise would be only to those not paying much attention.
Devolution is a good thing, and we’d be a better country if our local government were properly empowered and constitutionally protected from continual political interference and game playing from Westminster.
So we have to start unpicking the damage done by 30 years of blithe constitutional neglect
Put everything on the table. Not just Scotland. Voting reform, the Lords, the Monarchy. All of it
Oh, he didn’t. You made it up.
PS: Good evening to you
When we let them go, it was all looking so promising.
The government just isn’t transformative enough, but it doesn’t want to be. Boris Johnson’s government wants to be the party of England, and that’s the path it has chosen to take
If Labour should lose by anything like 10% though there's no getting away from the 'trouble' motif.
There is nobody else there to replace him.
First Ireland, then Scotland. Next Wales, Cornwall & Rutland?
To be fair, none of my passionate Remainer friends mentioned NI at the time, because - as they admit - they never considered it either. We were all blind-sided. Including the DUP
Never again. If we are to shatter the UK, we need to know why we are doing it, and why the post UK situation will be better. Or not
I don't think he's going anywhere either, the LP tends to hold on to its leaders, but I wondered what others thought.
Ultimately, if Scotland wants to be a left wing country within the EU, and England wants to be a right wing country outside the EU, there is not a lot of common ground left between us. The alternative is simply to say, we never leave the EU, and never have a right wing government, in order to keep Scotland happy.
There will be other stories. Not all as horrific.
I smell bollocks from him tbh
Still lots of optimism in the Liam Byrne campaign. Source describes latest West Midlands polling as "bollocks", saying it doesn't reflect what they're seeing on the ground & Birmingham Labour has recorded most contacts in a week ever. They think it'll be close but Byrne will win.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/05/03/jenner-hits-california-nerve-by-siding-with-gop-on-transgender-athletes-1379772
. . . Jenner immediately drew attention last month as a celebrity who would be the most prominent transgender political candidate in the nation, but she entered the race to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom without the support of the LGBTQ community in California. She has thus far done little to cement her standing in the nation's most populous state, though she will have her first major campaign interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity on Wednesday. . . .
(BTW, note the odd name for the web address above - Florida?)
‘Unusually #cold air for early May is currently spreading south across the country 📉
The #showers overnight will increasingly fall as #snow over northern hills, as the height at which the air #temperature is at #freezing point becomes lower ❄️‘
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1389641059064598533?s=21
https://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/1389278582904664074?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jun/01/weatherwatch-freak-snow-stopped-cricket-on-2-june-1975#
1. Shift BXP over to CON
2. Slice off 6% LAB to Grumpy Corbynites
3. Put in a 3-4% CON to LAB national swing
you end up pretty close to this morning's poll.
A bad result for Starmer? Sure. But 1 and 2 are pretty local factors and it's not obvious what he could have done about either of them. It's been a dead Labour seat walking for a while.
And to any Corbynites out there- you're pining for something more left-wing. Fine, I get that. But the current choice is Starmer or Johnson. If you think leaving Johnson in Number 10 is a price worth paying to do down Starmer, that's an honourable position. (As a fully detached Manionite ex-Conservative, I have to say that, having made a similar calculation).
But please realise that's what you're doing.
Oddly enough, I suspect a heavy defeat in Hartlepool and poor results in other parts of the new Conservative Heartlands (offset, I suspect, by a decent result in London and some surprisingly good results in other parts of the South) won't do Starmer nearly as much harm as some on here think (or hope).
Counter intuitively, I think it will empower him in his mission to change Labour - defeat can be a strong antidote to passivity and stagnation IF it is accepted and understood. Starmer "could" use the defeats in the North and Midlands to (quite accurately) ask some searching questions about why Labour has lost these once staunch areas.
It's also about re-positioning Labour to be in a position to re-capture these votes (or at least get those voters to re-consider Labour) when (and it's when, not if) the situation changes.
I well remember encountering ex-Labour voters in the 1980s who weren't supporting the Conservatives but Margaret Thatcher and we don't know (or he won't until he's gone) the extent to which the "new Tories" in the North and Midlands are more fans of Johnson than the blue rosette.
In the short term, it doesn't matter but one day Johnson will be gone and when he goes the Conservative Party will change (all parties do this when the leader changes to some extent). The question s whether the post-Johnson Conservative Party will be as attractive for the north and midlands - if not, Labour has an opportunity if it is able to take it.
It was visible in 2015 and came to the fore in 2016 with the Brexit result which I think would have been a greater margin than 52:48 had some nutter not murdered Jo Cox. Then it really hit home in 2019 with Boris' huge win.
This isn't just about Brexit. Brexit was an emblem of a pro-British anti-woke realignment amongst a swathe of former northern Labour Red Wall voters. Sir Keir Starmer's ultra Remain, metropolitan, southern Labourites have nothing in common with them.
There are now two Labour parties, as Rochdale Pioneer pointed out this morning. And they are at present completely irreconcilable. The Labour party up north is disappearing.
The unherd piece out today was superb and well worth reading:
https://unherd.com/2021/05/how-the-left-lost-hartlepool/
But, I'm not convinced it's that black and white. Most Scots (even today) are anti-euro and while they dress slightly to the Left of the English (due to more concentrated land ownership and industrialisation historically) that can be exaggerated too.
‘In the name of “equity”, California DOE’s 2021 Mathematics Framework attacks the idea of gifted students and eliminates opportunities for accelerated math.
- no grouping students by ability
- no Algebra for 8th graders
- no Calculus for high schoolers
cde.ca.gov/ci/ma/cf/‘
https://twitter.com/stevemilleroc/status/1389456546753437699?s=21
But I agree with points that there needs to be a will to reform the Union if it is to survive and that everything must be on the table. Nigelb, I think, posted an excellent Twitter thread yesterday, from which I read an excellent paper, that explained how the structure of the Union makes such things difficult both constitutionally and politically.
I think addressing our constitutional issues is probably one of the most important things we need to do as a nation, but even talking about it (apart from notable exceptions, and even then it's not talked about in those terms) leaves a political party open to claims of esoteric naval gazing when there are [insert hot button topic here].
That's my take. I don't think the sleaze stories are yet strong enough to knock off the palpable vaccine joy as we unlock.
I continue to think the tories will have a very good day Thursday in many parts of the UK. Not Scotland though.
As an aside, Ipswich actuary Steve Jackson is still tracking the model he created in February (see below). The actual figures are now running at about 30% better than his model projected. It's important to remember that the planned restriction easing on 17/5 and 21/6 will push R up, countered by the benificial effect of the vaccination roll-out.
All in all, I'd say we should keep to the timetable set out.
https://twitter.com/goalprojection/status/1388880520117956609?s=20
The French government could cut off the electricity supply to Jersey in an escalating row over post-Brexit fishing rights, a French minister has suggested.
‘Acquiescing to tribal religious demands has meant that in some museums women are barred from handling remains. There are many accounts of archaeologists avoiding hypotheses, such as those revolving around the peopling of the Americas, because the research will contradict creation myths.’
https://www.nas.org/blogs/article/responding-to-claims-of-archaeological-racism
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/lowest-average-minimum-temperatures-since-1922-as-part-of-dry-april
The Dems got lucky in this cycle with Trumps disastrous pandemic response and picking Biden who managed to win back those key Midwest swing states , there are also a lot more urban areas which can counterbalance the stronger rural GOP vote .
Labour are caught between two stools , trying to relive the glory years with banked in Red Wall voters who hated the Tories austerity policies and the closing down of the mines and swathes of the old industrial heartlands and the urban voters who are socially liberal , more educated and more pro EU .
This loose coalition only holds together when the Tories are seen as the nasty party and who push austerity .
There simply aren’t enough urban votes to compensate for the losses in the Red Wall .
It’s hard to see Labour winning again anytime soon unless the Tories return to austerity or there’s some economic crash .
It gives me no satisfaction to say this as a long time Labour supporter but it’s going to be an immense struggle to get the Tories out of power .
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/04/labour-tories-voters-keir-starmer
- Male (just saying)
- Northern
- Charisma
- Can you close your eyes and imagine him at door of No 10?
- Intelligent enough
- Voted Leave (or at least clearly expressed support for honouring the result)
- Patriotic enough
- Not regarded as a strong left winger
Hmm. John Mann or Dan Jarvis. The former is (sadly) no longer an MP and Jarvis is available at 50/1.