So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
Small sample, badly out of date. Labour are now value.
An interesting question is whether the poll itself will have an effect. I am pretty sure the Labour campaign is feeling more than a tad demoralised right now.
Re: polling, is anyone still doing it the REAL old-fashioned way, that is with in-person interviews?
Expensive, yes. But given the proliferation of cell phones PLUS the reluctance of folks to answer ANY in-coming call, cell or landline, where the do NOT recognize the caller on their caller ID, would seem that in-person polling just MIGHT make a comeback?
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
Re: polling, is anyone still doing it the REAL old-fashioned way, that is with in-person interviews?
Expensive, yes. But given the proliferation of cell phones PLUS the reluctance of folks to answer ANY in-coming call, cell or landline, where the do NOT recognize the caller on their caller ID, would seem that in-person polling just MIGHT make a comeback?
It's an interesting point but its, comparatively, hugely expensive. Good polling is eye-watering at the best of times but who's going to pay people to do it in person?
Re: polling, is anyone still doing it the REAL old-fashioned way, that is with in-person interviews?
Expensive, yes. But given the proliferation of cell phones PLUS the reluctance of folks to answer ANY in-coming call, cell or landline, where the do NOT recognize the caller on their caller ID, would seem that in-person polling just MIGHT make a comeback?
There's this thing happening right now, you might not have noticed because it's barely been in the news, but it turns out that in-person anything is severely out of favour for some reason.
Re: polling, is anyone still doing it the REAL old-fashioned way, that is with in-person interviews?
Expensive, yes. But given the proliferation of cell phones PLUS the reluctance of folks to answer ANY in-coming call, cell or landline, where the do NOT recognize the caller on their caller ID, would seem that in-person polling just MIGHT make a comeback?
There's this thing happening right now, you might not have noticed because it's barely been in the news, but it turns out that in-person anything is severely out of favour for some reason.
Some things are very definitely better in person than over a screen though. No doubt about it. 😉
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
Re: polling, is anyone still doing it the REAL old-fashioned way, that is with in-person interviews?
Expensive, yes. But given the proliferation of cell phones PLUS the reluctance of folks to answer ANY in-coming call, cell or landline, where the do NOT recognize the caller on their caller ID, would seem that in-person polling just MIGHT make a comeback?
There's this thing happening right now, you might not have noticed because it's barely been in the news, but it turns out that in-person anything is severely out of favour for some reason.
Good retort! Though I was thinking of masked pollsters - true Lone Rangers.
OR maybe they could where haz-mat suits? Would seem suitable attire even post-pandemic!
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
I had thought that Sarwar just might deliver second place behind the SNP. That is not what the polling is showing now though.
I know nothing about betting, nothing about polling, and nothing about politics. I'm doubtful that the Conservatives will win in Hartlepool simply because, much more often than not, upsets don't happen. But of course I'd have said the same in Scotland the year Labour were ejected.
I'll be interested to see what the outcome actually is and even more interested in the post mortem (when everyone says why it was always obvious that that would happen).
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
IDS was dumped for much better reasons than the results of some council elections.
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
As I suggested earlier, it’s the Waitrose and John Lewis shoppers who don’t like the clown coming over all upper class and sneering at them.
"'Far more likely' coronavirus came from lab, ex-MI6 chief tells LBC
Sir Richard Dearlove said aspects of the virus "point in the direction of it being somewhat tailored" though he warned this may never be proven.
The former "C" of the Secret Intelligence Service – equivalent to "M" in James Bond – also told LBC's Tom Swarbrick that more information on the coronavirus' origin will soon come out."
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
I had thought that Sarwar just might deliver second place behind the SNP. That is not what the polling is showing now though.
If you look at the leader ratings Sarwar is in for a good night, DRoss not so much, but Alex Salmond and Alba will be lucky to get one seat.
Re: polling, is anyone still doing it the REAL old-fashioned way, that is with in-person interviews?
Expensive, yes. But given the proliferation of cell phones PLUS the reluctance of folks to answer ANY in-coming call, cell or landline, where the do NOT recognize the caller on their caller ID, would seem that in-person polling just MIGHT make a comeback?
It's an interesting point but its, comparatively, hugely expensive. Good polling is eye-watering at the best of times but who's going to pay people to do it in person?
Maybe use the Sherlock Holmes gambit, and employ impoverished but plucky street urchins?
"Please, sir, just a moment of your time, to help out a poor but honest nipper such as meself - if the byelection was today, would you be voting for Cornish Nationalists or the Geordie Liberation Front? Or skiping the whole thing, going home, turning on the gas and sticking yer fat head into the oven?"
I know nothing about betting, nothing about polling, and nothing about politics. I'm doubtful that the Conservatives will win in Hartlepool simply because, much more often than not, upsets don't happen. But of course I'd have said the same in Scotland the year Labour were ejected.
I'll be interested to see what the outcome actually is and even more interested in the post mortem (when everyone says why it was always obvious that that would happen).
Explain the logic of Labour losing in the groups most opposed to racism (young and minorities)
If the centrists and right wing fairly tale about Corbyn being racist and Starmer being anti racist were true the opposite would happen.
Starmer seems most popular (comparatively to Corbyn) among groups most in favour of racism (older white people) the same groups were Corbyn is least popular.
I know this might be hard to hear but is it possible it is you that is wrong rather than the children Mr Skinner?
The better starting point is not to be racist because its wrong. Too many of your fellow Corbynite activists - and Corbyn himself - cannot pass this test due to being usually passive but sometimes active anti-semites.
Once you've got this "believing in something cos its right" thing down, the next barrier is not ramming your standards down other people's throats. You may be right and the other person wrong, but sneering / shouting won't change their view in your direction. Quite the opposite in fact.
Finally, don't be a screaming hypocrite. Diane Abbott was on the on the end of some horrendous racist abuse - with much of it coming from Labour members who then insisted it wasn't racist.
Diane Abbott is an interesting one to compare with Israel.
If you're attacking Abbott/Israel alone then that seems to be racism.
If you're attacking Abbott along with Rebecca Wrong Daily, Laura Pillock, the Jezziah and the rest of them - then that's not racist.
Wrong-Daily is white. Pillock is white. Berger is BAME. Abbott is BAME. My point was that in large parts of Labour there is a hierarchy of racism where as Baddiel puts it so neatly: Jews Don't Count.
The party promoted Anas Sarwar as the first BAME leader of a political party. Scottish Labour isn't a political party, but Sarwar isn't even the first BAME Labour leader - Ed Milliband doesn't count apparently.
Would you expect Ed to be classed as BAME?
Here's the definition AIUI -
"The acronym BAME stands for Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic and is defined as all ethnic groups except White ethnic groups. It does not relate to country origin or affiliation."
Ed is white, no?
Are arabs BAME? I believe the answer is yes. Logically therefore jews must be BAME as they have the same origins both are semitic (though for some reason anti semite is only used for jew haters)
Either both are or both aren't. Try walking into a momentum meeting and telling people Palestinians are not BAME and let us know how it goes
In my area many people whose parents came over from north Africa apparently put down White Other as their ethnicity.
Just got back from an early May stroll. Sleeting. Labour's problem is Tory popularity. This is mysterious to its members and myself. But it is there.
Not a fan myself, but I do like to remind people when they talk about how hated the Tories are that they are the most popular political party across the UK (not in the UK), and have been for some time.
The flip side is of course remain electorally very popular too with loads of people, but whilst a group can be be both popular and hated, it's worth people remembering the former part is true as well as the latter.
‘Liverpool University is removing the name of William Gladstone lding will be renamed for a Communist, Dorothy Kuya.’
Well. in fairness, Communism never did anything wrong did it 🤦♂️
Dorothy Kuya was no idealistic "private" Communist, incidentally: she was a lifelong member of Quote Tweet
In short, a traitor.
You have to break a few (million) eggs David
Maybe it was my childhood experiences in Germany but I have never understood why supporters of communism are thought morally superior to another corpse for corpse.
Fascists hate minorities, communists only capitalists.
In the grand scheme of things capitalists only lawyers who work for banks are lower than capitalists.
I had a friend who said even though Mao was responsible for more deaths than Hitler what makes Hitler worse was the fact that Hitler wanted to kill all those people and more, whereas as Mao only wanted best for his people, and things like the Great Leap Forward were noble ventures which went wrong.
My eyes rolled so much at that I saw my own optic nerves.
Communism being a good idea gone wrong is a bizarrely prevalent or at least accepted view.
I dont get it, since you dont need to be some rigid uber capitalist instead, there are middle grounds.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
They may both be a thumping. The latest polling for Street this morning did not indicate it was close.
I suspect that much of their gain will be in London but there is increasingly little low hanging fruit left there. But yes, there does seem a discrepancy between these polls of individual races and the overall country polling with the latter much more favourable to Labour.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
I had thought that Sarwar just might deliver second place behind the SNP. That is not what the polling is showing now though.
If you look at the leader ratings Sarwar is in for a good night, DRoss not so much, but Alex Salmond and Alba will be lucky to get one seat.
Small victories I suppose, but also small comfort.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
I had thought that Sarwar just might deliver second place behind the SNP. That is not what the polling is showing now though.
If you look at the leader ratings Sarwar is in for a good night, DRoss not so much, but Alex Salmond and Alba will be lucky to get one seat.
I reckon many blue leaning Scots can hold their nose and vote Sarwar's Labour to keep out Nippy's Nats in the constituency vote - far more than under Corbyn/Leonard.
"'Far more likely' coronavirus came from lab, ex-MI6 chief tells LBC
Sir Richard Dearlove said aspects of the virus "point in the direction of it being somewhat tailored" though he warned this may never be proven.
The former "C" of the Secret Intelligence Service – equivalent to "M" in James Bond – also told LBC's Tom Swarbrick that more information on the coronavirus' origin will soon come out."
Talking absolute shite, IMO. (It's not impossible that the virus escaped from a lab, but the stuff about the spike being 'mucked about with' is just rubbish.)
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
PS - So many of us are waiting for you to provide that link about the census. It really has huge betting implications.
As a byelection Batley and Spen is far harder to call. The Brexit vote was minimal as it went to the Heavy Woollen District Independents party and there really isn't the "see what you missing out on" issue that Hartlepool had.
However, were SKS to lose that byelection there would be problems as that really should be a Labour seat...
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
As I suggested earlier, it’s the Waitrose and John Lewis shoppers who don’t like the clown coming over all upper class and sneering at them.
That's the issue with fake news. The John Lewis thing is entirely fabricated but has now entered into the political culture as truth. Parties need to be aware about how hard they need to face these things down and get those in the media to correct the record.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Labour's vote is up in London, Scotland and the South on 2019 but down in the Midlands and Wales and Leave voting areas of the North
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
May not have the breadth of candidates to take advantage though. In my rurality Labour were distinctly more slick and noticable in their campaigning in 2017, definitely fired up by Corbynism, so far nothing at all.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
I had thought that Sarwar just might deliver second place behind the SNP. That is not what the polling is showing now though.
If you look at the leader ratings Sarwar is in for a good night, DRoss not so much, but Alex Salmond and Alba will be lucky to get one seat.
I think that they will get 2, 1 in the NE and 1 in Highland. An embarrassingly poor performance for the former FM.
The other thing to bear in mind is that Scottish Tories are used to having really crap leaders. Until Ruth came along it was the norm. Didn't stop them voting.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
PS - So many of us are waiting for you to provide that link about the census. It really has huge betting implications.
As a byelection Batley and Spen is far harder to call. The Brexit vote was minimal as it went to the Heavy Woollen District Independents party and there really isn't the "see what you missing out on" issue that Hartlepool had.
However, were SKS to lose that byelection there would be problems as that really should be a Labour seat...
It is a seat I kinda know well through friends.
The big difference between Batley & Spen is that the Heavy Woollen Independents aren't analogous to the Brexit Party in Hartlepool.
This lot think Farage is a woke liberal, and the BNP used to be quite active here as well.
There's also a residual sympathy vote for Labour here as well, whether that lasts at the by election is another factor.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
If there's no Scotland progress I would be saying more a solid D. IDS was dumped for a much much better performance than this.
I had thought that Sarwar just might deliver second place behind the SNP. That is not what the polling is showing now though.
If you look at the leader ratings Sarwar is in for a good night, DRoss not so much, but Alex Salmond and Alba will be lucky to get one seat.
I reckon many blue leaning Scots can hold their nose and vote Sarwar's Labour to keep out Nippy's Nats in the constituency vote - far more than under Corbyn/Leonard.
Hopefully the possibility of being pipped into second among unionist parties wont put them off.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
Khan isn't down, he is up 4% on his first round share in 2016 and up 6% on his second round share from 2016 on today's poll.
I expect Labour to win London by a landslide on Thursday at both Mayoral and Assembly level and Labour and the LDs to pick up some Tory county council seats in the South.
However I expect the Tories to hold the Tees Valley and WM Mayoralty races and do better in council elections north of Watford and I also expect the Tories to gain seats in Wales in the Senedd and win Hartlepool in the by election.
Scotland will see little change from 2016, certainly at constituency level, though Labour may overtake the Tories on the list even if the Tories still win more constituency MSPs than Labour
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Some of the big cities? Some have suggested they'll do quite well in m/c Tory shires - though they'd need a miracle to have much real impact. I suspect they may get a boost here from 'remainers' and renters leaning left.
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
PS - So many of us are waiting for you to provide that link about the census. It really has huge betting implications.
As a byelection Batley and Spen is far harder to call. The Brexit vote was minimal as it went to the Heavy Woollen District Independents party and there really isn't the "see what you missing out on" issue that Hartlepool had.
However, were SKS to lose that byelection there would be problems as that really should be a Labour seat...
It is a seat I kinda know well through friends.
The big difference between Batley & Spen is that the Heavy Woollen Independents aren't analogous to the Brexit Party in Hartlepool.
This lot think Farage is a woke liberal, and the BNP used to be quite active here as well.
There's also a residual sympathy vote for Labour here as well, whether that lasts at the by election is another factor.
Might the Heavy Woolen Independents do better electorally IF they "rebranded" as the Long Johns League?
When I see the phrase "Heavy Woolen" what I see in my mind's eye is an obese sheep.
"'Far more likely' coronavirus came from lab, ex-MI6 chief tells LBC
Sir Richard Dearlove said aspects of the virus "point in the direction of it being somewhat tailored" though he warned this may never be proven.
The former "C" of the Secret Intelligence Service – equivalent to "M" in James Bond – also told LBC's Tom Swarbrick that more information on the coronavirus' origin will soon come out."
Talking absolute shite, IMO. (It's not impossible that the virus escaped from a lab, but the stuff about the spike being 'mucked about with' is just rubbish.)
Dicky Dearlove, Blair's intelligence chief who said Iraq had WMD.
Never trust a Queens' man, I mean they were founded by the French.
Small sample, badly out of date. Labour are now value.
6s on betfair. I'd be tempted at double figures - not at the current price.
Remember no one will really know until the boxes are emptied or the PVs are been counted. So if it goes out on betfair it is all sentimentality until about 10:45 on thursday evening. I made a bit of money on an old by election that the SNP declared they had won at about 9pm. Labour held the seat.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
They may both be a thumping. The latest polling for Street this morning did not indicate it was close.
I suspect that much of their gain will be in London but there is increasingly little low hanging fruit left there. But yes, there does seem a discrepancy between these polls of individual races and the overall country polling with the latter much more favourable to Labour.
I wonder if the national polling is the voters slapping Boris for being a bit of an idiot - but in practice most will end up leaning blue despite it all when it comes to actually voting.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
I agree. Starmer’s picking up votes in blue-remainia, isn’t he?
Labour could put in a surprisingly good performance in Chesham & Amersham.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
Even the Modeller of Doom admits this is nearly over.
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 NEW: Prof Neil Ferguson says we now "don’t see any prospect of the NHS being overwhelmed, with the one caveat around variants", in a third wave this summer/autumn
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
"'Far more likely' coronavirus came from lab, ex-MI6 chief tells LBC
Sir Richard Dearlove said aspects of the virus "point in the direction of it being somewhat tailored" though he warned this may never be proven.
The former "C" of the Secret Intelligence Service – equivalent to "M" in James Bond – also told LBC's Tom Swarbrick that more information on the coronavirus' origin will soon come out."
Talking absolute shite, IMO. (It's not impossible that the virus escaped from a lab, but the stuff about the spike being 'mucked about with' is just rubbish.)
Dicky Dearlove, Blair's intelligence chief who said Iraq had WMD.
Never trust a Queens' man, I mean they were founded by the French.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
They may both be a thumping. The latest polling for Street this morning did not indicate it was close.
I suspect that much of their gain will be in London but there is increasingly little low hanging fruit left there. But yes, there does seem a discrepancy between these polls of individual races and the overall country polling with the latter much more favourable to Labour.
I wonder if the national polling is the voters slapping Boris for being a bit of an idiot - but in practice most will end up leaning blue despite it all when it comes to actually voting.
I think there is truth in that. But there is a shelf life on people willing to overlook poor behaviour. He needs to get himself sorted out.
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
PS - So many of us are waiting for you to provide that link about the census. It really has huge betting implications.
As a byelection Batley and Spen is far harder to call. The Brexit vote was minimal as it went to the Heavy Woollen District Independents party and there really isn't the "see what you missing out on" issue that Hartlepool had.
However, were SKS to lose that byelection there would be problems as that really should be a Labour seat...
It is a seat I kinda know well through friends.
The big difference between Batley & Spen is that the Heavy Woollen Independents aren't analogous to the Brexit Party in Hartlepool.
This lot think Farage is a woke liberal, and the BNP used to be quite active here as well.
There's also a residual sympathy vote for Labour here as well, whether that lasts at the by election is another factor.
At least one member of the far right certainly was depressingly active.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
They may both be a thumping. The latest polling for Street this morning did not indicate it was close.
I suspect that much of their gain will be in London but there is increasingly little low hanging fruit left there. But yes, there does seem a discrepancy between these polls of individual races and the overall country polling with the latter much more favourable to Labour.
I wonder if the national polling is the voters slapping Boris for being a bit of an idiot - but in practice most will end up leaning blue despite it all when it comes to actually voting.
That's what a Tory optimist would say. A pessimist would point out that the national polling is a lot more up to date and very probably better weighted than these local polls. I remember single constituency polling in the 2015 election in particular but with no affection whatsoever.
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
They may both be a thumping. The latest polling for Street this morning did not indicate it was close.
I suspect that much of their gain will be in London but there is increasingly little low hanging fruit left there. But yes, there does seem a discrepancy between these polls of individual races and the overall country polling with the latter much more favourable to Labour.
I wonder if the national polling is the voters slapping Boris for being a bit of an idiot - but in practice most will end up leaning blue despite it all when it comes to actually voting.
I think there is truth in that. But there is a shelf life on people willing to overlook poor behaviour. He needs to get himself sorted out.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
I don't think the Tories have a single voter left around my way. So that's part of it. Hopefully just a small part, though, since such a swap would be electorally inefficient for Labour.
"'Far more likely' coronavirus came from lab, ex-MI6 chief tells LBC
Sir Richard Dearlove said aspects of the virus "point in the direction of it being somewhat tailored" though he warned this may never be proven.
The former "C" of the Secret Intelligence Service – equivalent to "M" in James Bond – also told LBC's Tom Swarbrick that more information on the coronavirus' origin will soon come out."
Talking absolute shite, IMO. (It's not impossible that the virus escaped from a lab, but the stuff about the spike being 'mucked about with' is just rubbish.)
Dicky Dearlove, Blair's intelligence chief who said Iraq had WMD.
Never trust a Queens' man, I mean they were founded by the French.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
Khan isn't down, he is up 4% on his first round share in 2016 and up 6% on his second round share from 2016 on today's poll.
I expect Labour to win London by a landslide on Thursday at both Mayoral and Assembly level and Labour and the LDs to pick up some Tory county council seats in the South.
However I expect the Tories to hold the Tees Valley and WM Mayoralty races and do better in council elections north of Watford and I also expect the Tories to gain seats in Wales in the Senedd and win Hartlepool in the by election.
Scotland will see little change from 2016, certainly at constituency level, though Labour may overtake the Tories on the list even if the Tories still win more constituency MSPs than Labour
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
Explain the logic of Labour losing in the groups most opposed to racism (young and minorities)
If the centrists and right wing fairly tale about Corbyn being racist and Starmer being anti racist were true the opposite would happen.
Starmer seems most popular (comparatively to Corbyn) among groups most in favour of racism (older white people) the same groups were Corbyn is least popular.
I know this might be hard to hear but is it possible it is you that is wrong rather than the children Mr Skinner?
The better starting point is not to be racist because its wrong. Too many of your fellow Corbynite activists - and Corbyn himself - cannot pass this test due to being usually passive but sometimes active anti-semites.
Once you've got this "believing in something cos its right" thing down, the next barrier is not ramming your standards down other people's throats. You may be right and the other person wrong, but sneering / shouting won't change their view in your direction. Quite the opposite in fact.
Finally, don't be a screaming hypocrite. Diane Abbott was on the receiving end of some horrendous racist abuse. She was also on the end of a lot of abuse because she is a shit politician that was willfully miscategorised as racist. At the same time Luciana Berger was also on the end of some horrendous racist abuse - with much of it coming from Labour members who then insisted it wasn't racist.
Diane Abbott is an interesting one to compare with Israel.
If you're attacking Abbott/Israel alone then that seems to be racism.
If you're attacking Abbott along with Rebecca Wrong Daily, Laura Pillock, the Jezziah and the rest of them - then that's not racist.
Wrong-Daily is white. Pillock is white. Berger is BAME. Abbott is BAME. My point was that in large parts of Labour there is a hierarchy of racism where as Baddiel puts it so neatly: Jews Don't Count.
The party promoted Anas Sarwar as the first BAME leader of a political party. Scottish Labour isn't a political party, but Sarwar isn't even the first BAME Labour leader - Ed Milliband doesn't count apparently.
Because to recognise millibrand as bame they wouldn't be able to claim that even for him as Disraeli would be the first Bame leader of a political party and incidentally prime minister
Exactly. I stopped with Ed M and didn't mention Howard or the others because they weren't Labour.
This is the Labour Party. Who claims to be anti-racist. And who still has a massive bind spot when it comes to anti-semitism.
I would say "still" is unfair, given that the start of the problem can be dated precisely to September 2015.
Anyway, using hatred of Starmer by Corbynista fanboys as a crude proxy for whether he's addressing the issue, ten minutes of scanning this forum today has made me quite optimistic.
Weird given people kept going back before that time (whether they were looking for left wing or centrist anti semitism)
I guess all the anti semitism people used as a weapon against Corbyn (or centrists) that appeared before that date was part of Corbyn's evil racist plan were he went back in time and planted racist comments that seem as if they existed before Corbyn won the leadership but clever older white men with large bank accounts saw through this...
Young people and minorities haven't got this kind of magic perception which is why they can't see that Corbyn is secretly a time travelling racist.
Please don't tar young people with your brush, most are sane and a great number of them also saw through corbyn and didnt vote for him 71% in fact
Without young people Corbyn was buried, the old voted against him the young voted for him.
Vast numbers of people as always didn't vote but there is a reason Labour did better among the young.
Corbyn is the first political leader the younger generation has had.
First?
What about Ed Miliband? Nick Clegg? Tony Blair?
Every "younger generation" has always had a leader or leaders politically. The only way to define Corbyn as the first is simply by wiping out any that come before him, in which case Starmer or A N Other could be a first next time.
I've never understood why I'm supposed to think someone is greater because they had more of the young vote, as though its morally worth more.
I criticise the grey vote bribes we get and the age polarisation of recent times is a worry, but we overdo the 'please think of the children(and young people)' stuff - same reason people love youthful campaigners.
I'll never understand people criticising something without reading it, what is the point?
I was on about younger people being less racist and them being the ones who voted for Corbyn (in relatively greater numbers)
Was it really too difficult for you to go back and read the context in which is was used?
Or are my posts just useful staging posts for you to have a self righteous whine without actually reading them?
In future please read the context in which I am saying something or don't talk about my posts. Nothing worse than someone being self righteous when they don't even know what they are talking about.
You need to calm the f*ck down, take your own advice and read what I wrote.
Your post and the one which followed it led me to reflect on a tangential point of my own. It was not a criticism of you or your post and did not say as much.
Why should not one person's thoughts serve as staging for another, separate point by another? I welcomed the discussion and it led me to think about something related but different.
So f*ck you. Amazing how you just personified the very point you wanted to criticise about self righteousness.
Not everything is about you. Nor do you own a discussion or a reply to a post which was not even yours. Just because it was in a thread with yours didn't make it a criticism of you.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
I don't think the Tories have a single voter left around my way. So that's part of it. Hopefully just a small part, though, since such a swap would be electorally inefficient for Labour.
Are there really seats where the Tory vote is zero? Even in seats like East Ham they manage ~15%.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
I agree. Starmer’s picking up votes in blue-remainia, isn’t he?
Labour could put in a surprisingly good performance in Chesham & Amersham.
I actually doubt your last point and wrt the Home counties not sure they would win much in a GE here - potential to make the Tory vote even more efficient.
Is that a Binface late surge we see on this sunny afternoon?
I'm seriously considering Binface. For all the difference it will make.
I thought his manifesto was inspired.
Oh, has he got one? Never mind then.
He has indeed. One of the highlights was a commitment to move a wash hand basin in a pub's toilet.
Talking of which, I've just turned down an invitation to go to the pub, because it's really too cold. Why couldn't this spring be as warm as last spring?
It looks increasingly as if by the time I'm allowed to sit inside a pub I'll choose to sit outside, as I prefer this on warm days.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
Khan isn't down, he is up 4% on his first round share in 2016 and up 6% on his second round share from 2016 on today's poll.
I expect Labour to win London by a landslide on Thursday at both Mayoral and Assembly level and Labour and the LDs to pick up some Tory county council seats in the South.
However I expect the Tories to hold the Tees Valley and WM Mayoralty races and do better in council elections north of Watford and I also expect the Tories to gain seats in Wales in the Senedd and win Hartlepool in the by election.
Scotland will see little change from 2016, certainly at constituency level, though Labour may overtake the Tories on the list even if the Tories still win more constituency MSPs than Labour
What about the West of England Mayoralty?
Could depend on whether it is the Labour or LD candidate who faces the Tory in the runoff, in 2017 it was close with the Tories on 27%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 20% and 52% Tory and 48% Labour in the runoff
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
I don't think the Tories have a single voter left around my way. So that's part of it. Hopefully just a small part, though, since such a swap would be electorally inefficient for Labour.
Thought you lived near Leon, Sean T and Lady G? That's at least 3. There may be many more...
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
I don't see much reason for the May 17th changes to be brought forward but there is little reason to not bring the June changes forward.
Is that a Binface late surge we see on this sunny afternoon?
I'm seriously considering Binface. For all the difference it will make.
I thought his manifesto was inspired.
Oh, has he got one? Never mind then.
He has indeed. One of the highlights was a commitment to move a wash hand basin in a pub's toilet.
Talking of which, I've just turned down an invitation to go to the pub, because it's really too cold. Why couldn't this spring be as warm as last spring?
It looks increasingly as if by the time I'm allowed to sit inside a pub I'll choose to sit outside, as I prefer this on warm days.
I was thinking exactly that when reading @MaxPB's post. If this May was like last this would be less of an issue but its freezing out there.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
In my little corner of SE Spain we've had zero cases for the past 2 days and zero deaths for the past week - combo of weather, rrestrictions and the slow vax rollout - my jab at age 67 is thei Thursday. We will be open for the summer tourists now.
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
Even the Modeller of Doom admits this is nearly over.
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 NEW: Prof Neil Ferguson says we now "don’t see any prospect of the NHS being overwhelmed, with the one caveat around variants", in a third wave this summer/autumn
I thought Neil Ferguson had avoided the doom porn and for most of this year was saying once vaccination is complete we're pretty much done in the UK and would just have to live with flu-level outbreaks.
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
I do agree with you, but the time to announce an earlier opening has sadly passed. We're only 13 days off indoor service now so I imagine all the preparation for the 17th is underway with businesses and to change it at this point would cause logistical trouble for a few days extra business.
One thing I am pleased about is that this really does seem irreversible since it's been so cautious, hopefully this really is it.
Watching the capacity crowd at the snooker last night did make me a bit teary eyed as it's good to be able to see people happy to be out and about at events again, and that crowd + the other events research programme stuff hopefully will prove once and for all that we can do away with social distancing.
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
Possibly places where they already weigh the labour vote like london
And yet Khan is down. My money's on the Home Counties.
I agree. Starmer’s picking up votes in blue-remainia, isn’t he?
Labour could put in a surprisingly good performance in Chesham & Amersham.
I actually doubt your last point and wrt the Home counties not sure they would win much in a GE here - potential to make the Tory vote even more efficient.
Well indeed. Analogous to Tyne and Wear. Massive swings to the Tories all this century has left 12 out of 12 Labour seats much more efficiently won.
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
Even the Modeller of Doom admits this is nearly over.
Dan Bloom @danbloom1 NEW: Prof Neil Ferguson says we now "don’t see any prospect of the NHS being overwhelmed, with the one caveat around variants", in a third wave this summer/autumn
It wasn't Ferguson who was banging on about a "third wave with more hospitalisations than the second" but it's a start. All of these scientists and their dodgy models need to have a very bright light shone on them
Cases now dropping like a stone WoW, deaths almost down to zero. Yet here we are sitting in the cold drinking beer while the nice warm pubs are still closed off.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
Hospital admissions are a week behind and haven't been updated in a few days. No mention of this on the site. Wondering what is happening. Maybe the numbers are too good/bad?
Assuming the polls are true - and labour is losing significant votes in Hartlepool, doing pretty badly in the West Midlands, but ~level pegging overall, WHERE are they piling up votes?
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
I don't think the Tories have a single voter left around my way. So that's part of it. Hopefully just a small part, though, since such a swap would be electorally inefficient for Labour.
Thought you lived near Leon, Sean T and Lady G? That's at least 3. There may be many more...
Are you alleging, that a large chunk of the Tory vote in those parts, is due to massive personation by just one of our star PBers?
So the scores on the doors for SKS are likely to be:
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way. Hartlepool a loss. London a clear win, probably not on the first count. Scotland small progress Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping. Teeside Mayor probably a loss. Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
You've got the WM and Tees Valley the wrong way round there. Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt. Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on. If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
They may both be a thumping. The latest polling for Street this morning did not indicate it was close.
I suspect that much of their gain will be in London but there is increasingly little low hanging fruit left there. But yes, there does seem a discrepancy between these polls of individual races and the overall country polling with the latter much more favourable to Labour.
I wonder if the national polling is the voters slapping Boris for being a bit of an idiot - but in practice most will end up leaning blue despite it all when it comes to actually voting.
London is giving Labour a huge lead. They'll probably do well in a lot of middle class Remain areas as well. National polling is hardly great for Labour.
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
Comments
Coincidence? Kismet?? OR conspiracy???
SO here it is again (you can hide Smithson, or you can run!)
FPT
Mike Smithson has NOT yet answered THE burning question of this thred!
That is IF he did NOT put his pennies on Sir Alec Douglas Hume for Leader of the Tory Party in 1963, then WHO did he bet on?
My guess is Sir Gerald Nabarro.
SMITHSON FESS UP! PB WANTS TO KNOW!!
Overall council seats, a bit of a wash, not much change either way.
Hartlepool a loss.
London a clear win, probably not on the first count.
Scotland small progress
Wales small retreat, not nearly as bad as it looked a month ago
West Midlands Mayor, a bit of a thumping.
Teeside Mayor probably a loss.
Greater Manchester Mayor, a clear win.
It's not a great scorecard, is it? More of a C- than a C+ I would say.
Including, I believe, every single one of the NE based posters.
Expensive, yes. But given the proliferation of cell phones PLUS the reluctance of folks to answer ANY in-coming call, cell or landline, where the do NOT recognize the caller on their caller ID, would seem that in-person polling just MIGHT make a comeback?
Even Mrs May managed it.
Scotland. Majority or not for SNP is the only thing in serious doubt.
Although Conservative performance in the affluent South of England has passed by almost uncommented on.
If we are to combine the national and regional polling, then Labour must be moving forward somewhere. My money is on there.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1389590096756740098/photo/1
OR maybe they could where haz-mat suits? Would seem suitable attire even post-pandemic!
The Speccie points out that Starmer might have to fight another nightmare seat after Thursday. Tracy Brabin will apparently step down as Batley and Spen MP if she triumphs in the West Yorkshire Mayoralty, according to the Speccie.
I know nothing about betting, nothing about polling, and nothing about politics. I'm doubtful that the Conservatives will win in Hartlepool simply because, much more often than not, upsets don't happen. But of course I'd have said the same in Scotland the year Labour were ejected.
I'll be interested to see what the outcome actually is and even more interested in the post mortem (when everyone says why it was always obvious that that would happen).
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/03/07/things-to-look-forward-to-in-2021-an-exciting-by-election/
PS - So many of us are waiting for you to provide that link about the census. It really has huge betting implications.
"'Far more likely' coronavirus came from lab, ex-MI6 chief tells LBC
Sir Richard Dearlove said aspects of the virus "point in the direction of it being somewhat tailored" though he warned this may never be proven.
The former "C" of the Secret Intelligence Service – equivalent to "M" in James Bond – also told LBC's Tom Swarbrick that more information on the coronavirus' origin will soon come out."
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus-escaped-from-lab-mi6-chief/
"Please, sir, just a moment of your time, to help out a poor but honest nipper such as meself - if the byelection was today, would you be voting for Cornish Nationalists or the Geordie Liberation Front? Or skiping the whole thing, going home, turning on the gas and sticking yer fat head into the oven?"
As bumper as this weeks elections are I'm not sure it really is super Thursday either. Not a fan myself, but I do like to remind people when they talk about how hated the Tories are that they are the most popular political party across the UK (not in the UK), and have been for some time.
The flip side is of course remain electorally very popular too with loads of people, but whilst a group can be be both popular and hated, it's worth people remembering the former part is true as well as the latter. Communism being a good idea gone wrong is a bizarrely prevalent or at least accepted view.
I dont get it, since you dont need to be some rigid uber capitalist instead, there are middle grounds.
I don’t get it.
Has anyone dug into the subsamples?
That would be the biggest ever win in a London Mayoral election second round, even beating the 58% to 42% Livingstone beat Norris by in 2000
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1389590455684317184?s=20
I suspect that much of their gain will be in London but there is increasingly little low hanging fruit left there. But yes, there does seem a discrepancy between these polls of individual races and the overall country polling with the latter much more favourable to Labour.
(It's not impossible that the virus escaped from a lab, but the stuff about the spike being 'mucked about with' is just rubbish.)
However, were SKS to lose that byelection there would be problems as that really should be a Labour seat...
Anti-Americanism also explains a lot.
Enoch Powell was an Anti-American and thought ourselves and the USSR were natural allies, the bookends of Europe to keep the. continent in place.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1389531863908237315
The other thing to bear in mind is that Scottish Tories are used to having really crap leaders. Until Ruth came along it was the norm. Didn't stop them voting.
My money's on the Home Counties.
The big difference between Batley & Spen is that the Heavy Woollen Independents aren't analogous to the Brexit Party in Hartlepool.
This lot think Farage is a woke liberal, and the BNP used to be quite active here as well.
There's also a residual sympathy vote for Labour here as well, whether that lasts at the by election is another factor.
Edit: found it. Lots there to like, but he wants London to rejoin the EU, so into the bag of poisonous snakes he goes with the rest of them.
For the greater good.
I expect Labour to win London by a landslide on Thursday at both Mayoral and Assembly level and Labour and the LDs to pick up some Tory county council seats in the South.
However I expect the Tories to hold the Tees Valley and WM Mayoralty races and do better in council elections north of Watford and I also expect the Tories to gain seats in Wales in the Senedd and win Hartlepool in the by election.
Scotland will see little change from 2016, certainly at constituency level, though Labour may overtake the Tories on the list even if the Tories still win more constituency MSPs than Labour
When I see the phrase "Heavy Woolen" what I see in my mind's eye is an obese sheep.
Never trust a Queens' man, I mean they were founded by the French.
Bloody JCL college.
Labour could put in a surprisingly good performance in Chesham & Amersham.
The scientists have made doom porn modelling an art form. I'm still waiting for those idiots who said we'd have a third wave worse than the second wave to retract their idiot model. Their agenda is laughably transparent and it's time for them to be forced into printing retractions.
He does seem somewhat clueless.
@OpiniumResearch
LONDON POLLING
Sadiq Khan set to be comfortably re-elected this Thursday, polling at 48% to Shaun Bailey's 29%."
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1389590096756740098
45.3% in 2016..
It is the hand dryer.
There's a perfectly gettable press release from the US census bureau from 29 April that says 155m people over 18 voted in the US presidential.
CNBC claimed on in November 2020 that 'at least 159.8m ballots were cast?'
It doesn't prove anything but it stokes the republican fires.
What's the big deal?
Your post and the one which followed it led me to reflect on a tangential point of my own. It was not a criticism of you or your post and did not say as much.
Why should not one person's thoughts serve as staging for another, separate point by another? I welcomed the discussion and it led me to think about something related but different.
So f*ck you. Amazing how you just personified the very point you wanted to criticise about self righteousness.
Not everything is about you. Nor do you own a discussion or a reply to a post which was not even yours. Just because it was in a thread with yours didn't make it a criticism of you.
So vain.
It looks increasingly as if by the time I'm allowed to sit inside a pub I'll choose to sit outside, as I prefer this on warm days.
That's at least 3. There may be many more...
Current champion is Abbvie's immune modulator Humira.
One thing I am pleased about is that this really does seem irreversible since it's been so cautious, hopefully this really is it.
Watching the capacity crowd at the snooker last night did make me a bit teary eyed as it's good to be able to see people happy to be out and about at events again, and that crowd + the other events research programme stuff hopefully will prove once and for all that we can do away with social distancing.
Impressive IF true!