The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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So, do you believe he got p1ssed upon?glw said:
Investigating political candidates is incredibly sensitive, there was probably also an expectation that Clinton would win anyway. The Steele dossier is probably mostly true as little of it has been debunked, but that doesn't really matter the US govnerment was already investigating the Trump campaign, some of his associates were under investigation before Trump even declared his candidacy.MrEd said:A bit harsh @glw but let's flip it around - if the US Government was taking it seriously before the election, why would they allow someone who would be deemed to be a serious security risk take office.
PS I don't usually do this but just to check where you stand on the crank / ignorant scale, do you believe Steele's dossier is true and that he got p1ssed upon? And do you have a Robert Mueller votive candle in your bedroom? *
* joking on the latter but people did have them
If you are going to suggest someone is ignorant or a crank, it's only fair to show what sort of stuff you actually do believe
As for the sensitivity, yes but it still doesn't answer the key point - if you believe there was a credible chance he was a Russian agent, you wouldn't take the chance regardless if you think the other candidate would win.0 -
Yet another example of giving Puntinists what they want, because he can.rcs1000 said:Ron DeSantis has just told cities and municipalities that they can no longer have their own Covid restrictions.
And Scott & Rubio (for example) can not.0 -
You could raise similar questions in regards to about actions taken by Nixon (Vietnam) and Reagan (Iran) whilst they were candidates. The US intelligence community screws up a lot when cases are politically sensitive.MrEd said:However, I go back to my main argument - why would the US Intelligence community allow someone who they seriously thought was in Putin's pocket to be President?
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Not very to be honest. And, as @Anabobazina will be along to tell you soon, my prediction means you should be topping that bet up a lotping said:
Damn I’ve just topped up on labMrEd said:
Hello Correct - I'll take a bet, that it shows a massive Tory lead.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1389335757169496074
What do we think? Labour lead in Hartlepool?
How confident are you?
(in seriousness, I don't know and @rcs1000 is right, it could be about Scotland)0 -
Exactly. The only other possible threat to DeSantis would have been Abbott of Texas but no chance given the energy crisis there.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Yet another example of giving Puntinists what they want, because he can.rcs1000 said:Ron DeSantis has just told cities and municipalities that they can no longer have their own Covid restrictions.
And Scott & Rubio (for example) can not.0 -
FOR THE RECORD.
Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.
And I should know!1 -
Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?0 -
Hartlepool will be Tory I think but have zero confidence in that prediction, it seems very hard to get any insider feel from the place.0
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Seems to me that the current voting intention can be explained by likelihood to vote. Seems to have dropped off for the Tories and gone back up for Labour.
I've said before, this is why I think the Tory lead is smaller than it appeared and less secure than it appeared.
I think we're going to see ties for a while yet.0 -
I am expecting Hartlepool to be LAB hold as I have posted here previously.Anabobazina said:Hartlepool will be Tory I think but have zero confidence in that prediction, it seems very hard to get any insider feel from the place.
And if I am wrong (not possible surely?
) I shall front it out on here - but I am not staying up for the declaration!
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Don't think Greg Abbot was ever a serious prospect, despite the fact he's political heir to W in Texas he's got less charisma or heft (Abbot that is) than a empty bottle of Lone Star beer.MrEd said:
Exactly. The only other possible threat to DeSantis would have been Abbott of Texas but no chance given the energy crisis there.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Yet another example of giving Puntinists what they want, because he can.rcs1000 said:Ron DeSantis has just told cities and municipalities that they can no longer have their own Covid restrictions.
And Scott & Rubio (for example) can not.
As for the future, keep in mind that things can change in the twinkling of an eye. Just ask President Muskie!
Remember the days (maybe two weeks worth) when Mike Pentz was GOP front-runner for 2024?0 -
UkraineMrEd said:
So what was the first impeachment about?TheScreamingEagles said:
Just how many senior Dems publicly said that was true?MrEd said:
What, as opposed to having endless comments and suggestions that the US President was a Russian spy and was p1ssed on by Moscow call-girls?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's really funny because Sidney Powell recently admitted only really stupid people believed the election was stolen from Trump.Alistair said:Ah, I see we are back at the "just asking questions" stage of our American politics discourse.
Because that's not a nuts theory.....
As opposed to the squillions of senior GOPers who said the election was stolen.0 -
Ha ha, so will I although like you I certainly won’t be staying up. I find it impossible to care TBH!londonpubman said:
I am expecting Hartlepool to be LAB hold as I have posted here previously.Anabobazina said:Hartlepool will be Tory I think but have zero confidence in that prediction, it seems very hard to get any insider feel from the place.
And if I am wrong (not possible surely? ) I shall front it out on here - but I am not staying up for the declaration! 1 -
But until Melinda denies it too....SeaShantyIrish2 said:FOR THE RECORD.
Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.
And I should know!0 -
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.0 -
Seattle Times - FDA set to authorize Pfizer for 12- to 15-year-olds by next week1
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That's the rub! Except, there was NO rubbing! Wrongly or rightly.MarqueeMark said:
But until Melinda denies it too....SeaShantyIrish2 said:FOR THE RECORD.
Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.
And I should know!0 -
Bill?SeaShantyIrish2 said:FOR THE RECORD.
Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.
And I should know!0 -
He is most definitely NOT my type! THAT way, anyway.dixiedean said:
Bill?SeaShantyIrish2 said:FOR THE RECORD.
Wish to make it crystal clear, that any rumor you may hear, suggesting that yours truly has been having an affair with Melinda Gates, are utterly, totally, completely without foundation.
And I should know!0 -
Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.LostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
He said quite a lot more!0 -
I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?dixiedean said:
Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.LostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
He said quite a lot more!0 -
God bless us, everyone.LostPassword said:
I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?dixiedean said:
Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.LostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
He said quite a lot more!
Shit, that was Tiny Tim.4 -
Probably a similarly tangled, tangential mess. Like the Japanese department store that had Santa on the cross for Christmas decorations.LostPassword said:
I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?dixiedean said:
Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.LostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
He said quite a lot more!
Although Confucius would be more analogous to Aristotle.
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Love the irony:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/florida-republicans-mail-voting/2021/05/02/4c133920-a9bf-11eb-8c1a-56f0cb4ff3b5_story.html
Florida GOP fear mail-in voting restrictions that they implemented in response to Trump's rantings my depress GOP turnout in the State.
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Blessed are the cheesemakers.kle4 said:
God bless us, everyone.LostPassword said:
I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?dixiedean said:
Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.LostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
He said quite a lot more!
Shit, that was Tiny Tim.
Quotes are misattributed all the time after all.0 -
Something from Sermon on the Mount?dixiedean said:
Probably a tangled, tangential mess. Like the Japanese department store that had Santa on the cross for Christmas decorations.LostPassword said:
I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?dixiedean said:
Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.LostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
He said quite a lot more!
My personal favorite, not a saying but nonetheless powerful communication: "Jesus wept."0 -
Strange that Confucius has become known for just that one saying.
He said quite a lot more!I wonder what single saying Jesus would get reduced to in a culture without a history of Christianity?
God bless us, everyone.
Shit, that was Tiny Tim.Blessed are the cheesemakers.
Quotes are misattributed all the time after all.
And it applies to all manufacturers of dairy products.0 -
Still have it as a Con. gain, low turnout and Brexity, can't see anything else. No need to worry, 2024 could be another matter.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1389335757169496074
What do we think? Labour lead in Hartlepool?0 -
Pointless virtue-signalling.TimT said:
UkraineMrEd said:
So what was the first impeachment about?TheScreamingEagles said:
Just how many senior Dems publicly said that was true?MrEd said:
What, as opposed to having endless comments and suggestions that the US President was a Russian spy and was p1ssed on by Moscow call-girls?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's really funny because Sidney Powell recently admitted only really stupid people believed the election was stolen from Trump.Alistair said:Ah, I see we are back at the "just asking questions" stage of our American politics discourse.
Because that's not a nuts theory.....
As opposed to the squillions of senior GOPers who said the election was stolen.0 -
Little known saying of Confucius:
"Making love is sublime; getting screwed. not so much."2 -
To add to thatLostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1389346749198766082
Spin and bluster [referring to Cons playing down expectations]. The PM had been to Hartlepool three times now. He wouldn’t be lashing himself to the mast unless they had polling showing it was in the bag. Ignore the noise. Both sides desperately playing down expectations this weekend. Neither side able to disown the result.
And public polls to show the same thing tomo.
/End HCole quote.
Seems to be a good Con lead going by teases.0 -
Harry Cole confirming a Hartlepool poll, heavily hinting at a Con lead. Times Red Box also mention a second poll - Opinium were teasing a Scotland poll, so that's probably the second.rcs1000 said:
It might not a Hartlepool poll at all. It could be Scotland. It could be UK. It could even be about Northern Ireland.MrEd said:
Hello Correct - I'll take a bet, that it shows a massive Tory lead.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1389335757169496074
What do we think? Labour lead in Hartlepool?0 -
Worth noting that Johnson has a young baby at home, so I wouldn't blame him anything that got him out of the house.Chameleon said:
To add to thatLostPassword said:
I take "Confucian sense" to be a reference to the supposed curse, "may you live in interesting times". Implies that poll results are bad for Labour. Certainly interesting times to see a Tory win in Hartlepool, and a second referendum would also be interesting in that sense too - so implies that the SNP are on track for an overall majority in a Scotland poll.CorrectHorseBattery said:Going to predict poll tomorrow will show a narrow Labour lead in Hartlepool?
Strange Tweet from Maguire, perhaps around character of the leaders?
But, well, poll teases are the worst teases.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1389346749198766082
Spin and bluster [referring to Cons playing down expectations]. The PM had been to Hartlepool three times now. He wouldn’t be lashing himself to the mast unless they had polling showing it was in the bag. Ignore the noise. Both sides desperately playing down expectations this weekend. Neither side able to disown the result.
And public polls to show the same thing tomo.
/End HCole quote.
Seems to be a good Con lead going by teases.1 -
Because their actual power is perhaps not as all-pervasive as most people (including themselves) think? Or rather, yes, they probably do have the power to veto a presidential candidate, either through some form of knobbling or by outright saying "X is a Russian/Chinese/British/Canadian/whatever agent". The problem is that that's not really something you do in a polity that still has pretensions to being a constitutional democratic republic. Yes, if they really did have solid evidence as Trump was heading for the GOP nomination that he was literally a Russian agent, actually on the payroll and taking direct orders from Vladimir Vladimirovitch, then they would have intervened, and Trump would have been prosecuted. End of story.MrEd said:
Hands up, I have not read the whole lot. I really couldn't spare the time or the willpower.Alistair said:My only question tho MrEd on the Russia stuff is of he has a actually read any of the Mueller report or only other people's summaries?
However, I go back to my main argument - why would the US Intelligence community allow someone who they seriously thought was in Putin's pocket to be President?
But clearly, whatever one may think of Trump, he's not actually a real, fully paid-up officer of the GRU. The intelligence services may well have very good reason to think he was an "agent of influence" or, as Ilyich memorably termed it, a "useful idiot", but clearly they decided that that wasn't quite serious enough to justify the crypto-military intervening in the civil process. They realized that they had little option but to suck it up and deal, sit tight for four to eight years and make sure nothing really, or even slightly, sensitive got anywhere near the Resolute Desk. And so they did.
Edit to add, and of course, making sure nothing really sensitive actually reaches the Oval Office is no doubt SOP for the three-letter agencies anyway, no matter who's in the White House.0 -
Predictions: Con +6 in Hartlepool, Street winning the final round by 6% as well for tomorrow morning's polls. Nobody cares enough about the WoE mayor to poll about it.0
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Probably Tories +11, anything in single figures would still leave the outcome pretty open.0
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https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20
"It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."
If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not
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I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.Leon said:https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20
"It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."
If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not0 -
Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAXAndy_JS said:
I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.Leon said:https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20
"It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."
If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not
It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God
But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe
eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs
Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking0 -
I know you're concerned about Southern California, and so I really want to make sure you know that things are OK here. While the high was only 23 degrees today, the next five days are all in the mid 20s with sunshine.Leon said:
Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAXAndy_JS said:
I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.Leon said:https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20
"It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."
If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not
It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God
But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe
eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs
Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking1 -
New Scotland Survation poll
Holyrood constituency vote
SNP 47%
SCons 21%
SLab 21%
LDs 8%
List
SNP 37%
SCons 22%
SLab 18%
Greens 10%
LDs 7%
Alba 2%
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389357387610476548?s=200 -
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Would be a marginal win for unionism to keep the SNP below 63. 2nd successive election sustaining losses - in the most positive atmosphere possible for them.HYUFD said:New Scotland Survation poll
Holyrood constituency vote
SNP 47%
SCons 21%
SLab 21%
LDs 8%
List
SNP 37%
SCons 22%
SLab 18%
Greens 10%
LDs 7%
Alba 2%
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389357387610476548?s=20
I suspect that Ross is less tactical voting friendly than Davidson, so Cons will suffer a couple of close losses (might be balanced out by more general tactical voting), while Sarwar is more tactical voting friendly, which will result in some reduced SNP majorities, but basically no Labour gains from the SNP.0 -
More importantly, Keir and Sarwar with good favourables.HYUFD said:New Scotland Survation poll
Holyrood constituency vote
SNP 47%
SCons 21%
SLab 21%
LDs 8%
List
SNP 37%
SCons 22%
SLab 18%
Greens 10%
LDs 7%
Alba 2%
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389357387610476548?s=20
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1389353204576571395
Sturgeon +18
Sarwar +10
Starmer +9
Salmond -64(!)
Opinium also with a Scottish poll out soon.0 -
Just imagine IF the Mayflower, instead of sailing across the Atlantic, had veered south, rounded Cape Horn, headed north and landed at Santa Monica.rcs1000 said:
I know you're concerned about Southern California, and so I really want to make sure you know that things are OK here. While the high was only 23 degrees today, the next five days are all in the mid 20s with sunshine.Leon said:
Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAXAndy_JS said:
I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.Leon said:https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20
"It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."
If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not
It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God
But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe
eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs
Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking
The Pilgrim Fathers, like the early Californios, would never have felt the need to head any further east that Palm Springs.0 -
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1389253672161402880
Survation Wales and Hartlepool confirmed for tomorrow/today.0 -
Why would they have wanted to go as far East as Palm Springs? If you ask me, Glendale is far enough East,SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Just imagine IF the Mayflower, instead of sailing across the Atlantic, had veered south, rounded Cape Horn, headed north and landed at Santa Monica.rcs1000 said:
I know you're concerned about Southern California, and so I really want to make sure you know that things are OK here. While the high was only 23 degrees today, the next five days are all in the mid 20s with sunshine.Leon said:
Don't look at the GFS model forecasts for the UK next week. It predicts many places in the UK and NW Europe will experience maximum temperatures, over several days, of 3-8C. MAXAndy_JS said:
I was so cold a couple of nights ago I had to put the heating on. Usually I don't use it after the beginning of March.Leon said:https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1389278613552443397?s=20
"It looks like this will go down as the coldest early May Bank Holiday on record with a top temperature of just 14C in a few spots in southeast England."
If it is this bad on Thursday it may effect the voting. How? I know not
It is almost unprecedented and for that reason is very probably wrong. And other models disagree. Thank God
But this is already an exceptional spring for cold weather, in northern Europe
eg (this link won't last long) next Thursday, 3PM, London: maximum 4C
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs
Like mid-January. I don't believe it, but it is striking
The Pilgrim Fathers, like the early Californios, would never have felt the need to head any further east that Palm Springs.1 -
Chesham looks a shoe in for the Lib Dems0
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Lib Dem candidate in place, apparently HQ operating and deliveries started. It is probably make or break for them. A good punt would be a double, Cons to win Hartlepoool and Lib Dems Chesham.0
