Not a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM – politicalbetting.com

Nigel_Foremain said:

I have said it before and I’ll say it again: he is unfit for high office.

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

SouthamObserver said:

The story is not who paid, but Johnson not declaring it. In previous governments this has been a resignation matter. Ask Peter Mandelson.

swing_voter said:

Does the Downing Street wallpaper thing (ie 58,000 `loaned' to the PM) actually cut through with voters...? I am genuinely unsure

squareroot2 said:

swing_voter said:

Does the Downing Street wallpaper thing (ie 58,000 `loaned' to the PM) actually cut through with voters...? I am genuinely unsure

My sister said that she thought the renovation was ghastly and that John Lewis would have been preferable. That's the relevance it has .

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

This is appalling from the EU and will guarantee no company develops a vaccine at cost in the future.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1386784309823082500?s=20

What fun!

Whose reputation is going to be damaged long-term do we think?

I have a view.

https://twitter.com/SpinningHugo/status/1386784633409396736?s=20

On a point of order, Astra Zeneca didn't develop the vaccine at all. It was developed by the University of Oxford, and one of the conditions of licensing was that it was sold at cost.

Given they took it through clinical trials, and into bulk manufacturing, it would be completely inaccurate to say they didn’t develop it.
Someone else invented it, sure.

Fair point.

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

swing_voter said:

Does the Downing Street wallpaper thing (ie 58,000 `loaned' to the PM) actually cut through with voters...? I am genuinely unsure

My sister said that she thought the renovation was ghastly and that John Lewis would have been preferable. That's the relevance it has .

I think the problem is, it shows he has no taste, no sense and no integrity.

But everyone already knew that. It is a big part of who he is. Indeed, the fact he is somebody who cocks a snook at the rules is a big part of his appeal.

So I don’t see how it will damage him at the moment.

The lockdown stuff is potentially more serious, but again, we know he’s careless with words. So what’s new?

What would be needed to damage him is something that goes against that persona. Say, tamely following civil service advice all the time and cocking it up as a result. That, I think, is where the risk lies for him over his actions.

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

I wonder whether Jeremy Corbyn would have voted with the government on each and every occasion over the past year.

He would have voted against. It would have made no difference to anything. But Labour would be even further behind because he is more disliked than Keir Starmer.

SouthamObserver said:

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

swing_voter said:

Does the Downing Street wallpaper thing (ie 58,000 `loaned' to the PM) actually cut through with voters...? I am genuinely unsure

My sister said that she thought the renovation was ghastly and that John Lewis would have been preferable. That's the relevance it has .

I think the problem is, it shows he has no taste, no sense and no integrity.

But everyone already knew that. It is a big part of who he is. Indeed, the fact he is somebody who cocks a snook at the rules is a big part of his appeal.

So I don’t see how it will damage him at the moment.

The lockdown stuff is potentially more serious, but again, we know he’s careless with words. So what’s new?

What would be needed to damage him is something that goes against that persona. Say, tamely following civil service advice all the time and cocking it up as a result. That, I think, is where the risk lies for him over his actions.

I think the taste is all Carrie's. I don't think Johnson cares about such things, indeed probably doesn't even notice them.

I don't think that the sleaze, chumocracy and multiple hands in the till will be enough for next weeks elections, but may well tell in the end. Johnson has a history of accumulating enemies who like their revenge served cold.

Roger said:

Scott_xP said:

Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1

That Johnson is a liar will not be news to anyone. The only attack that will work is convincing the thicko Johnson lovers-well represented on here-that it matters

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

In this country, yes.

In some other countries oppositions have found a way to cut through.

Otherwise we'd see Trump in his second term now.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

In this country, yes.

In some other countries oppositions have found a way to cut through.

Otherwise we'd see Trump in his second term now.

Trump faced an election last November having presided over a disastrous covid response, before the vaccines started to roll-out. If you look at the polling in the UK between November and January it looks very different to the way it does now.

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There appears to be both a "nothing to see here, move along" defence from PB Tories and pessimists on the left saying "it won't cut through".

It will, and here's why. The capstone was, is, and remains the government policy to let people die en masse to save Christmas / get positive headlines. There is no longer any doubt that Liar said it - both the promised recording and now people willing to testify under oath points to it happening. What will do him isn't that he said it, but that he has been caught lying about saying it.

He could have survived this. "There is a delicate balance to strike between being ultra-cautious and killing the economy. Whilst I regret the colourful language said in the middle of the most harrowing of meetings in the midst of a national emergency, I don't regret being the person making the decisions - I almost died of Covid remember." He'd have been OK.

Instead we have total denial. Never said it, didn't happen, of course it didn't happen would be an outrage to say such an awful thing". Then its proven he did say it. But his own definition then its the worst thing that could have been said.

The rest of the scandals - and he should resign like Mandelson over the undeclared house loan - will then suddenly gain weight whereas by themselves they would have been ineffective.

Not that this is manna from heaven for Labour. All this does is removes Liar and the cabal of idiots from government and replaces them with Sunak/Truss. Labour and IDStarmer won't get a look in.

That it took so many paragraphs for you to explain it all shows why you are wrong!!

RochdalePioneers said:

moonshine said:

Roger said:

Scott_xP said:

Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1

That Johnson is a liar will not be news to anyone. The only attack that will work is convincing the thicko Johnson lovers-well represented on here-that it matters

I happen to be able to see the wood for the trees, as can SO. No one cares enough to get their blood pressure raised about these trivialities, apart from a tiny number of partisan political obsessives. The voters are too busy down the pub, playing golf, keeping their businesses afloat, making up for lost time with family etc... and they are the ones that have life right.

Family being the key word. The PM chose to kill members of lots of people's families to generate "Boris Saves Christmas" headlines. Now that the proof comes out, expect the anger to turn into rage.

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

I suggest you go and research what the criminal act of money laundering is all about.

A deliberately obfuscatory way to avoid it looking as if Boris is taking money directly from donors.

(But which he has now been forced to pay back).

I wonder if he has paid tax on what was effectively a loan.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

In this country, yes.

In some other countries oppositions have found a way to cut through.

Otherwise we'd see Trump in his second term now.

Trump faced an election last November having presided over a disastrous covid response, before the vaccines started to roll-out. If you look at the polling in the UK between November and January it looks very different to the way it does now.

Yes, America had a disastrous Covid response. The UK didn't, the UK weren't advising bleach or any of that other claptrap.

Yes there was an artificial slump but even then (narrowly) based on the LOESS chart for opinion polls on Wikipedia at no stage was there crossover between the red and blue lines. Even at the trough before the Government's work on vaccines paid the two parties essentially came to parity.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

In this country, yes.

In some other countries oppositions have found a way to cut through.

Otherwise we'd see Trump in his second term now.

Trump faced an election last November having presided over a disastrous covid response, before the vaccines started to roll-out. If you look at the polling in the UK between November and January it looks very different to the way it does now.

Yes, America had a disastrous Covid response. The UK didn't, the UK weren't advising bleach or any of that other claptrap.

Yes there was an artificial slump but even then (narrowly) based on the LOESS chart for opinion polls on Wikipedia at no stage was there crossover between the red and blue lines. Even at the trough before the Government's work on vaccines paid the two parties essentially came to parity.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

"@JackPosobiec
BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

I think Mr Newson has been fortunate: CV19 cases are among the lowest in the US, life is returning to normal in CA, vaccine uptake is very high relative to (say) Mississippi, and I think he'll walk the recall election.

If this had happened last November, he'd have been in real trouble.

I'm not sure you can write off Caitlyn Jenner.

No, I'm pretty sure you can write off Caitlin Jenner.

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

I suggest you go and research what the criminal act of money laundering is all about.

A deliberately obfuscatory way to avoid it looking as if Boris is taking money directly from donors.

(But which he has now been forced to pay back).

I wonder if he has paid tax on what was effectively a loan.

Oh good, you have dropped the libellous accusation of the serious criminal offence of money laundering.

No I haven’t. It’s effectively a form of money laundering, albeit a legal one. The intent was to obscure the source of funds.

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

In this country, yes.

In some other countries oppositions have found a way to cut through.

Otherwise we'd see Trump in his second term now.

Trump faced an election last November having presided over a disastrous covid response, before the vaccines started to roll-out. If you look at the polling in the UK between November and January it looks very different to the way it does now.

Yes, America had a disastrous Covid response. The UK didn't, the UK weren't advising bleach or any of that other claptrap.

Yes there was an artificial slump but even then (narrowly) based on the LOESS chart for opinion polls on Wikipedia at no stage was there crossover between the red and blue lines. Even at the trough before the Government's work on vaccines paid the two parties essentially came to parity.

Britain has had the highest death rate and worst economic outturn of its key peer economies.

Our death rate is TWICE that or Ireland, who are just next door and almost culturally identical to us.
While population density and ethnic mix can explain some difference, the rest is basically government policy.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

In this country, yes.

In some other countries oppositions have found a way to cut through.

Otherwise we'd see Trump in his second term now.

Trump faced an election last November having presided over a disastrous covid response, before the vaccines started to roll-out. If you look at the polling in the UK between November and January it looks very different to the way it does now.

Yes, America had a disastrous Covid response. The UK didn't, the UK weren't advising bleach or any of that other claptrap.

Yes there was an artificial slump but even then (narrowly) based on the LOESS chart for opinion polls on Wikipedia at no stage was there crossover between the red and blue lines. Even at the trough before the Government's work on vaccines paid the two parties essentially came to parity.

Britain has had the highest death rate and worst economic outturn of its key peer economies.

Our death rate is TWICE that or Ireland, who are just next door and almost culturally identical to.
While population density and ethnic mix can explain some difference, the rest is basically government policy.

Population density etc explains all of the difference.

And economic data is because of how we measure things differently, measuring based on output for public expenditure instead of inputs is a key variant. Plus thanks to the UK having the best vaccine rollout of its peers, we're due for the best economic recovery too.

The facts are not on your side. By 2024 the UK will likely have a better Covid outcome and better economic outcome, because the pandemic has been well managed here. Which is why the Opposition were incapable of voting against at any stage, because they had nothing better to say.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Scott_xP said:

Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1

So what's the deal with supposed tape of BoJo's alleged remarks?

Without that, still just they say versus he denies, regardless of how many politicos swear on a stack of Bibles.

dixiedean said:

LostPassword said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

dixiedean said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

INSA opinion poll:

CDU/CSU 23%
Greens 23%
SPD 16%
FDP 12%
Afd 12%
Linke 8%
Others 6%

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
Enough to declare something has changed.
Linke and AfD stable.

I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.

The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.

True, true. Which again is very good news.

Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.

Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.

Might there be possibility of "rotating chancellors" under a Black-Green coalition IF both sides are roughly equal? With CDU/CSU getting the high chair for part of the term, then Greens for the rest (or visa versa).

That's what they've got right now in Republic of Ireland with Fianna Fail & Fine Gael

Yes, though, even with the dire polling for FF, there's a suspicion that they might collapse the coalition when it comes time for them to hand back the position of Taoiseach to FG. So the rotation may not happen in practice.

Surely that would lead to an election?
At which FF would receive their arses on a silver platter? Are they that stupid?
Oh. Wait.

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gardenwalker said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
* A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
* The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
* A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
* The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
* Rising house prices.

On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.

It will make the left happy to have something to go on. The,Opposition since SKS took over has been very lame.

The Opposition has been rendered entirely irrelevant at a time when there has been literally no other game in town except an unprecedented global pandemic. That continues to be the case now and will not change until well past the summer.

In this country, yes.

In some other countries oppositions have found a way to cut through.

Otherwise we'd see Trump in his second term now.

Trump faced an election last November having presided over a disastrous covid response, before the vaccines started to roll-out. If you look at the polling in the UK between November and January it looks very different to the way it does now.

Yes, America had a disastrous Covid response. The UK didn't, the UK weren't advising bleach or any of that other claptrap.

Yes there was an artificial slump but even then (narrowly) based on the LOESS chart for opinion polls on Wikipedia at no stage was there crossover between the red and blue lines. Even at the trough before the Government's work on vaccines paid the two parties essentially came to parity.

Britain has had the highest death rate and worst economic outturn of its key peer economies.

Our death rate is TWICE that or Ireland, who are just next door and almost culturally identical to.
While population density and ethnic mix can explain some difference, the rest is basically government policy.

Population density etc explains all of the difference.

And economic data is because of how we measure things differently, measuring based on output for public expenditure instead of inputs is a key variant. Plus thanks to the UK having the best vaccine rollout of its peers, we're due for the best economic recovery too.

The facts are not on your side. By 2024 the UK will likely have a better Covid outcome and better economic outcome, because the pandemic has been well managed here. Which is why the Opposition were incapable of voting against at any stage, because they had nothing better to say.

Population density does not explain all.

Or we would be on a par with the Netherlands, whereas in reality we have a much higher death rate.

On economics you seem to be claiming that our figures cannot be trusted...

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

I suggest you go and research what the criminal act of money laundering is all about.

A deliberately obfuscatory way to avoid it looking as if Boris is taking money directly from donors.

(But which he has now been forced to pay back).

I wonder if he has paid tax on what was effectively a loan.

Oh good, you have dropped the libellous accusation of the serious criminal offence of money laundering.

No I haven’t. It’s effectively a form of money laundering, albeit a legal one. The intent was to obscure the source of funds.

Deary me.

“Effectively a form of rape but a legal one”.
“Effectively a form of murder but a legal one”.
Etc...

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

I suggest you go and research what the criminal act of money laundering is all about.

A deliberately obfuscatory way to avoid it looking as if Boris is taking money directly from donors.

(But which he has now been forced to pay back).

I wonder if he has paid tax on what was effectively a loan.

OldKingCole said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

I suggest you go and research what the criminal act of money laundering is all about.

A deliberately obfuscatory way to avoid it looking as if Boris is taking money directly from donors.

(But which he has now been forced to pay back).

I wonder if he has paid tax on what was effectively a loan.

Good morning everyone.

I wonder, from whence came the money to pay back the loan? He has complained of being hard up, and I don't think, for example, that we've heard of a nanny being appointed.

Cyclefree said:

Anyway I was called for my second dose yesterday at 5 hours notice. As I was in London sorting out some urgent family issues (children!) I had to hotfoot it back to Barrow getting there just in time. Hooray! All very efficient. I was told that they had begged the vaccination centre in Grange for supplies.

It is a huge relief and big thanks go to all those involved.

I hope the momentum can be kept up for the younger age groups.

I must say I cannot be arsed with all the hoo ha about wallpaper etc.

The mystery to me is why it is taking so long to do a leak inquiry. I have done lots of these in my time and they really do not - and should not - take months. It is usually possible (if you know how to do them properly, a big "if" I grant you) to get an answer within days. Ditto re who paid for the wallpaper: this does not take months or even weeks to work out.

As for the "piling bodies high" comment, without context it is hard to judge - a comment made in exasperation is very different to one describing a deliberately chosen policy.

I yield to no-one in my dislike of this venal government and its amoral leader. But I will give it - and the NHS - credit for (a) choosing a good leader of the Vaccination Task Force, Kate Bingham (my initial criticisms of her appointment were misplaced); (b) spending the money needed to secure supplies; and (c) allowing the NHS to get on with its job, which it has done very well indeed.

Sometimes a politician has only to get one big call right or wrong to determine their reputation. Think Blair and Iraq. Too early to say whether the PM will be remembered for the vaccine programme or all his many failings. Maybe it will be both a la Lloyd George, who was an amoral priapic crook as well as a transformative PM.

SouthamObserver said:

moonshine said:

Goodness me we’ve approached tiresome silly season in the British media haven’t we.

SCANDAL: Political party pays for redecoration of official residence so it doesn’t fall on the taxpayer!!

DISGRACE: Unnamed sources disclose that man who nearly dies of covid still retains balance when assessing pros and cons of lockdown!!

If this is the best that long standing enemies can come up with after a year long cease fire, it only serves to show the PM has successfully navigated the choppy waters of both Brexit and the catastrophe of Covid. These are bulllets that would bounce off the Marshmellow Man, much less the Terminator.

If Gove is behind the briefing (Mail links suggest he might be), he will be out of government by Christmas is my guess.

The story is not who paid, but Johnson not declaring it. In previous governments this has been a resignation matter. Ask Peter Mandelson. But it is undoubtedly true that standards have so slipped under Johnson that at a time when economic optimism is soaring on the back of a highly successful vaccine roll-out this episode will have no effect on anything. Had the story broken at the start of the year, when the government and the PM were far less popular, it would probably have been a very different matter.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

moonshine said:

Roger said:

Scott_xP said:

Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1

That Johnson is a liar will not be news to anyone. The only attack that will work is convincing the thicko Johnson lovers-well represented on here-that it matters

I happen to be able to see the wood for the trees, as can SO. No one cares enough to get their blood pressure raised about these trivialities, apart from a tiny number of partisan political obsessives. The voters are too busy down the pub, playing golf, keeping their businesses afloat, making up for lost time with family etc... and they are the ones that have life right.

Family being the key word. The PM chose to kill members of lots of people's families to generate "Boris Saves Christmas" headlines. Now that the proof comes out, expect the anger to turn into rage.

When you say "chose to kill" you alienate anyone who is not already convinced that Johnson is evil incarnate. There will be rage - among people who already agree that he is evil incarnate.

It was deliberate and it was done twice.

First - the policy to ship Covid patients into care homes from hospital with no testing allowed. Reports at the time of fraught care home staff arguing with ambulance crews that they wouldn't take the residents back, denials that it was policy until it was proven. Result - 20,000 dead in care homes in a short period
Second - the denial of the need to lock down through the winter. The declaration of the absurd 5 day period where Covid wouldn't get us. The Boris Saves Christmas headlines. Result? 68k cases a day in January. We haven't had the proof yet, but Cummings and now two other people have come forward to prove it.

Watch the Daily Mail. Their coverage at the moment is there to whip up a frenzy. Next they move into heart-rendering stories of people who lost their closest loved-ones as a direct result of this policy. We already had it on radio phone-ins yesterday, and the popular tabloids will be plastered with it.

I've been saying for months that this policy will sink him and that the Mail would go crazy over it. And here they are.

The Daily Heil exists to whip up hate.

But its impact is rather trivial and its typically laughed at by most normal people.

Its a shame you've succombed to its lure.

Putting things in context

The UK is fretting about some wallpaper meanwhile

The head of the EU believes her priority is who gets to sit on a sofa first rather than the 1000s of her citizens dying each day

The french army is making noises about why it might be better if it ran the country instead of the fop president

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/la-tribune-d-anciens-militaires-contre-le-delitement-de-la-france-enflamme-le-debat-politique-20210426

I think Ill stick with the wallpaper

The French Army up for a fight? I've seen it all now.

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Sean_F said:

RochdalePioneers said:

moonshine said:

Roger said:

Scott_xP said:

Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1

That Johnson is a liar will not be news to anyone. The only attack that will work is convincing the thicko Johnson lovers-well represented on here-that it matters

I happen to be able to see the wood for the trees, as can SO. No one cares enough to get their blood pressure raised about these trivialities, apart from a tiny number of partisan political obsessives. The voters are too busy down the pub, playing golf, keeping their businesses afloat, making up for lost time with family etc... and they are the ones that have life right.

Family being the key word. The PM chose to kill members of lots of people's families to generate "Boris Saves Christmas" headlines. Now that the proof comes out, expect the anger to turn into rage.

When you say "chose to kill" you alienate anyone who is not already convinced that Johnson is evil incarnate. There will be rage - among people who already agree that he is evil incarnate.

It was deliberate and it was done twice.

First - the policy to ship Covid patients into care homes from hospital with no testing allowed. Reports at the time of fraught care home staff arguing with ambulance crews that they wouldn't take the residents back, denials that it was policy until it was proven. Result - 20,000 dead in care homes in a short period
Second - the denial of the need to lock down through the winter. The declaration of the absurd 5 day period where Covid wouldn't get us. The Boris Saves Christmas headlines. Result? 68k cases a day in January. We haven't had the proof yet, but Cummings and now two other people have come forward to prove it.

Watch the Daily Mail. Their coverage at the moment is there to whip up a frenzy. Next they move into heart-rendering stories of people who lost their closest loved-ones as a direct result of this policy. We already had it on radio phone-ins yesterday, and the popular tabloids will be plastered with it.

I've been saying for months that this policy will sink him and that the Mail would go crazy over it. And here they are.

The Daily Heil exists to whip up hate.

But its impact is rather trivial and its typically laughed at by most normal people.

Its a shame you've succombed to its lure.

Putting things in context

The UK is fretting about some wallpaper meanwhile

The head of the EU believes her priority is who gets to sit on a sofa first rather than the 1000s of her citizens dying each day

The french army is making noises about why it might be better if it ran the country instead of the fop president

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/la-tribune-d-anciens-militaires-contre-le-delitement-de-la-france-enflamme-le-debat-politique-20210426

I think Ill stick with the wallpaper

The French Army up for a fight? I've seen it all now.

only with their own citizens

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

There appears to be both a "nothing to see here, move along" defence from PB Tories and pessimists on the left saying "it won't cut through".

It will, and here's why. The capstone was, is, and remains the government policy to let people die en masse to save Christmas / get positive headlines. There is no longer any doubt that Liar said it - both the promised recording and now people willing to testify under oath points to it happening. What will do him isn't that he said it, but that he has been caught lying about saying it.

He could have survived this. "There is a delicate balance to strike between being ultra-cautious and killing the economy. Whilst I regret the colourful language said in the middle of the most harrowing of meetings in the midst of a national emergency, I don't regret being the person making the decisions - I almost died of Covid remember." He'd have been OK.

Instead we have total denial. Never said it, didn't happen, of course it didn't happen would be an outrage to say such an awful thing". Then its proven he did say it. But his own definition then its the worst thing that could have been said.

The rest of the scandals - and he should resign like Mandelson over the undeclared house loan - will then suddenly gain weight whereas by themselves they would have been ineffective.

Not that this is manna from heaven for Labour. All this does is removes Liar and the cabal of idiots from government and replaces them with Sunak/Truss. Labour and IDStarmer won't get a look in.

That it took so many paragraphs for you to explain it all shows why you are wrong!!

I've set out my argument. If you want a shorter version - lying about saying it will sink him, not saying it. I know that you are stuck in a "this is hopeless" for Labour position and on that you are correct. It won't cut through to the polls. But I think it will cut through to cut down Boris.

There are an awful lot of grieving people out there. Liar let their granny die for headlines. Doesn't get worse than that.

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

moonshine said:

Gardenwalker said:

The payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering.

The statement that “the payment for Carrie’s wallpaper was effectively money laundering” is effectively libellous.

It’s true though.

Money from donors has been paid to benefit Boris and Carrie, via a deliberately obfuscatory Conservative Party transaction.

I suggest you go and research what the criminal act of money laundering is all about.

A deliberately obfuscatory way to avoid it looking as if Boris is taking money directly from donors.

(But which he has now been forced to pay back).

I wonder if he has paid tax on what was effectively a loan.

Oh good, you have dropped the libellous accusation of the serious criminal offence of money laundering.

No I haven’t. It’s effectively a form of money laundering, albeit a legal one. The intent was to obscure the source of funds.

Deary me.

“Effectively a form of rape but a legal one”.
“Effectively a form of murder but a legal one”.
Etc...

Both rape (in a conjugal context) and murder (the act of killing someone, maybe in wartime) have been legal in the past and the latter may still be.

Come down from your fake moral high ground.

IanB2 said:

I see the NHS booking site has now dropped to age 42+