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Not a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,158
edited April 2021 in General
imageNot a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM – politicalbetting.com

Increasingly over the past week or so it has been the Mail that appears to have the most negative coverage of Mr. Johnson. Above is the latest for tomorrow’s paper.

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Test

    Works!
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Any particular reason the Mail has suddenly turned on him, lockdown fatigue?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I wonder how many on the left will feign that they like, appreciate and trust the Daily Heil now it is saying something that suits their agenda?

    It will be good for democracy if the Tories have a great election next week and it shows that the days of newspaper editors wielding tremendous power and influence are well and truly behind us.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396
    dodrade said:

    Any particular reason the Mail has suddenly turned on him, lockdown fatigue?

    It isn't really suddenly.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,291
    I have said it before and I’ll say it again: he is unfit for high office.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dodrade said:

    Any particular reason the Mail has suddenly turned on him, lockdown fatigue?

    The Editor hates Boris. He's had it in for him for years.

    The Mail's been running critical front pages against him since the new Editor was appointed. Before then when he was the Sunday Editor the Sunday paper did the same thing. Worth remembering in 2016 the Mail on Sunday, then under the Editorship of the Mail's new Editor, backed Remain not Leave at the Referendum.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Test

    Works!
    The reason I post "test" or whatever is to enable me to provide a link to the post on Twitter
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,772
    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,357
    Of the header the only thing that really has the potential to damage him is the bodies quote. The rest just strikes as being there to keep the story going/fleshed out.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Check out end of previous thred, for my brilliant insights re: US redistricting!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Looks like LAB winning everything next week

    Especially Hartlepool

    Keir moving into No 10 soon!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,538
    edited April 2021
    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Test

    Works!
    The reason I post "test" or whatever is to enable me to provide a link to the post on Twitter
    And we thought you were just marking your territory, like an old tom cat!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.

    LBJ's quote on Hoover comes to mind.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,357

    Test

    Works!
    The reason I post "test" or whatever is to enable me to provide a link to the post on Twitter
    The link brought me straight here which is good as in the past it has taken me to a gambling site unrelated to this one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396
    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.

    And thus a perfect fit!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,772

    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.

    LBJ's quote on Hoover comes to mind.
    No, Gove doesn't bring anything to the table now. He's also been completely captured by the lockdown and zero COVID ultras. He's the one pushing all of the vaccine passport to get into a pub crap.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.

    Is he another one of Carrie's very special (advisor) friends?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.

    Two possibilities:
    First is to keep friends close but enemies closer. He's different to Hunt et al, who pose no risk to BoJo at all.

    Second is that Gove, awful as he his, can run things. Normally, that wouldn't make him worth the trouble- but in a cabinet this weak, that makes him pretty indespensible.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.

    LBJ's quote on Hoover comes to mind.
    No, Gove doesn't bring anything to the table now. He's also been completely captured by the lockdown and zero COVID ultras. He's the one pushing all of the vaccine passport to get into a pub crap.
    'Gone native'. That sort of BS needs to die a death. Absolutely unnecessary and inexcusable. Though it does seem like they know that now? Any reports recently seem to suggest it will be for international travel only?

    The irony is that it could have perhaps been useful if we'd launched it in March similar to Israel's scheme launched in February. But its both useless, crap and authoritarian. Terrible idea, nuke it from orbit.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597

    dodrade said:

    Any particular reason the Mail has suddenly turned on him, lockdown fatigue?

    The Editor hates Boris. He's had it in for him for years.

    The Mail's been running critical front pages against him since the new Editor was appointed. Before then when he was the Sunday Editor the Sunday paper did the same thing. Worth remembering in 2016 the Mail on Sunday, then under the Editorship of the Mail's new Editor, backed Remain not Leave at the Referendum.
    I remember now, it was weird how it would be pro-brexit during the week under Dacre then suddenly turn into a remain paper on sundays.

    Don't see where the "Bodies" story goes from here, an on the record denial Vs anonymous "confirmations". In a courtroom Boris would have to be given the benefit of the doubt but the damage is done even if it could be proven untrue.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396
    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Greens, FDP and Linke all up on that poll, CDU/CSU well down, AfD and SPD unchanged
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't understand why Boris doesn't fire Gove. He's a completely untrustworthy.

    LBJ's quote on Hoover comes to mind.
    No, Gove doesn't bring anything to the table now. He's also been completely captured by the lockdown and zero COVID ultras. He's the one pushing all of the vaccine passport to get into a pub crap.
    'Gone native'. That sort of BS needs to die a death. Absolutely unnecessary and inexcusable. Though it does seem like they know that now? Any reports recently seem to suggest it will be for international travel only?

    The irony is that it could have perhaps been useful if we'd launched it in March similar to Israel's scheme launched in February. But its both useless, crap and authoritarian. Terrible idea, nuke it from orbit.
    I suspect we won't be hearing too much about vaccine passports for domestic purposes going forward...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,632
    A week is a long time in politics.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    Yes, the FDP are up from 10% at the 2017 election to 12% now, clearly many right of centre voters angry that Laschet was picked as Union chancellor candidate over Soder are protesting by voting FDP while not affecting the coalition outcome potential as the FDP are the CDU's natural allies
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,873
    Hilarious! If you wanted to be believed who would choose Gove as their cornerman!

    Oh dear! They're now calling it money laundering!

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    This is appalling from the EU and will guarantee no company develops a vaccine at cost in the future.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1386784309823082500?s=20

    What fun!

    Whose reputation is going to be damaged long-term do we think?

    I have a view.


    https://twitter.com/SpinningHugo/status/1386784633409396736?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
    I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
    Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2021
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
    I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
    Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.
    Might there be possibility of "rotating chancellors" under a Black-Green coalition IF both sides are roughly equal? With CDU/CSU getting the high chair for part of the term, then Greens for the rest (or visa versa).

    That's what they've got right now in Republic of Ireland with Fianna Fail & Fine Gael
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    In Germany today, who do you think is funding die Linke?

    My guess is either Putin or CDU? Or maybe both!

    Reckon Vlad is also bankrolling AfD?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396
    Interesting that the latest German constituency poll had CDU/CSU winning 198 of 299 constituencies. A FPTP landslide!
    And the Greens level with SPD on 42 apiece.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited April 2021
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
    I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
    Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.
    If the Greens are largest party then Green SPD Linke is the likeliest option and the CDU/CSU will go into opposition for the first time since 2005, likely with a move to the right after the humilation for the centrist Laschet wing that would come from losing power and first place
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
    I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
    Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.
    Might there be possibility of "rotating chancellors" under a Black-Green coalition IF both sides are roughly equal? With CDU/CSU getting the high chair for part of the term, then Greens for the rest (or visa versa).

    That's what they've got right now in Republic of Ireland with Fianna Fail & Fine Gael
    Not impossible. But I would be surprised if it is very close in the end.
    I think we are at the floor for the Union. The Greens near their ceiling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110

    This is appalling from the EU and will guarantee no company develops a vaccine at cost in the future.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1386784309823082500?s=20

    What fun!

    Whose reputation is going to be damaged long-term do we think?

    I have a view.


    https://twitter.com/SpinningHugo/status/1386784633409396736?s=20

    On a point of order, Astra Zeneca didn't develop the vaccine at all. It was developed by the University of Oxford, and one of the conditions of licensing was that it was sold at cost.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,339

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
    I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
    Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.
    Might there be possibility of "rotating chancellors" under a Black-Green coalition IF both sides are roughly equal? With CDU/CSU getting the high chair for part of the term, then Greens for the rest (or visa versa).

    That's what they've got right now in Republic of Ireland with Fianna Fail & Fine Gael
    Yes, though, even with the dire polling for FF, there's a suspicion that they might collapse the coalition when it comes time for them to hand back the position of Taoiseach to FG. So the rotation may not happen in practice.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
    I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
    Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.
    Might there be possibility of "rotating chancellors" under a Black-Green coalition IF both sides are roughly equal? With CDU/CSU getting the high chair for part of the term, then Greens for the rest (or visa versa).

    That's what they've got right now in Republic of Ireland with Fianna Fail & Fine Gael
    Yes, though, even with the dire polling for FF, there's a suspicion that they might collapse the coalition when it comes time for them to hand back the position of Taoiseach to FG. So the rotation may not happen in practice.
    Same thing happened in Israel didn't it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    Greens plus Union is polling as the most popular option.
    I agree more likely if the Union edge it and get to keep the Chancellorship.
    Green SPD Linke is the governing coalition in 3 Lander, so not impossible. But, I agree the SPD wouldn't go for that easily.
    Might there be possibility of "rotating chancellors" under a Black-Green coalition IF both sides are roughly equal? With CDU/CSU getting the high chair for part of the term, then Greens for the rest (or visa versa).

    That's what they've got right now in Republic of Ireland with Fianna Fail & Fine Gael
    Yes, though, even with the dire polling for FF, there's a suspicion that they might collapse the coalition when it comes time for them to hand back the position of Taoiseach to FG. So the rotation may not happen in practice.
    Surely that would lead to an election?
    At which FF would receive their arses on a silver platter? Are they that stupid?
    Oh. Wait.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,574
    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110

    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

    I think Mr Newson has been fortunate: CV19 cases are among the lowest in the US, life is returning to normal in CA, vaccine uptake is very high relative to (say) Mississippi, and I think he'll walk the recall election.

    If this had happened last November, he'd have been in real trouble.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

    Recall elections like this are dumb. I think there should be a pretty high bar before one is allowed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    I suspect he will get away with this, he always does. However it was quite wonderful to see the scoundrel squirm as he cringeingly denied the "bodies piled high" remark, and then quickly changed the subject.

    Any previous PM would be on the verge of falling on his or her sword after the revelations of the last few days. But we still love the old rascal, however tall his stories. Funny old thing, democracy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    edited April 2021

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    I suspect he will get away with this, he always does. However it was quite wonderful to see the scoundrel squirm as he cringeingly denied the "bodies piled high" remark, and then quickly changed the subject.

    Any previous PM would be on the verge of falling on his or her sword after the revelations of the last few days. But we still love the old rascal, however tall his stories. Funny old thing, democracy.
    Ummm... do you not remember cash-for-honours and Bernie Eccelstone and New Labour?

    (Holy cr&p, Bernie is 90 years old.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    I suspect he will get away with this, he always does. However it was quite wonderful to see the scoundrel squirm as he cringeingly denied the "bodies piled high" remark, and then quickly changed the subject.

    Any previous PM would be on the verge of falling on his or her sword after the revelations of the last few days. But we still love the old rascal, however tall his stories. Funny old thing, democracy.
    Ummm... do you not remember cash-for-honours and Bernie Eccelstone and New Labour?

    (Holy cr&p, Bernie is 90 years old.)
    Maybe any former PM except Blair, another scoundrel! Having said that Ecclestone's million would hang around Blair's neck all the way to 2007, and I am not sure Blair would have survived had Ecclestone, WMDs and cash for honours all been revealed over the same weekend.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
    Indeed. Whether it's a LONG time to a change of PM is a more open question. My MP (Jeremy Hunt) would, I suspect, think that an interesting question.

    As for BluestBlue's thoughts, I can be as partisan as the next man, but I'm not sure I'd joke about someone I liked allegedly talking blithely about tolerating thousands of bodies and then following policies that led to precisely that. It's not really just a game. If he didn't say it, fine. If he did, are you OK with it, BB?
    Isn't he alleged to have said it after the lockdown was agreed?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,574
    rcs1000 said:

    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

    I think Mr Newson has been fortunate: CV19 cases are among the lowest in the US, life is returning to normal in CA, vaccine uptake is very high relative to (say) Mississippi, and I think he'll walk the recall election.

    If this had happened last November, he'd have been in real trouble.
    I'm not sure you can write off Caitlyn Jenner.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
    Indeed. Whether it's a LONG time to a change of PM is a more open question. My MP (Jeremy Hunt) would, I suspect, think that an interesting question.

    As for BluestBlue's thoughts, I can be as partisan as the next man, but I'm not sure I'd joke about someone I liked allegedly talking blithely about tolerating thousands of bodies and then following policies that led to precisely that. It's not really just a game. If he didn't say it, fine. If he did, are you OK with it, BB?
    Isn't he alleged to have said it after the lockdown was agreed?
    ...and your point is?

    My understanding is the foolish and very insensitive remark was made in a fit of pique at having lost the argument over lockdowns. I don't consider anyone believes Johnson uttered the words (assuming he uttered them at all) with any malice aforethought, however it is the insensitivity which will hurt.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,396

    rcs1000 said:

    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

    I think Mr Newson has been fortunate: CV19 cases are among the lowest in the US, life is returning to normal in CA, vaccine uptake is very high relative to (say) Mississippi, and I think he'll walk the recall election.

    If this had happened last November, he'd have been in real trouble.
    I'm not sure you can write off Caitlyn Jenner.
    Strewth. That would annoy all the right people on both sides.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    That poll points to an unworkable stalemate.

    Would that political insecurity bad for Germany be great for Brexit Britain?

    I think yes. I think Boris is one of the luckiest politicians ever.

    Add to the imminent very weak Germany, the EU is under weak leadership lost on Ireland. The Scots Nats may box themselves in calling a referendum they lose badly.

    Tory party funding painter and decorator in a flat insignificant compared to everything moving his way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
    Indeed. Whether it's a LONG time to a change of PM is a more open question. My MP (Jeremy Hunt) would, I suspect, think that an interesting question.

    As for BluestBlue's thoughts, I can be as partisan as the next man, but I'm not sure I'd joke about someone I liked allegedly talking blithely about tolerating thousands of bodies and then following policies that led to precisely that. It's not really just a game. If he didn't say it, fine. If he did, are you OK with it, BB?
    Isn't he alleged to have said it after the lockdown was agreed?
    ...and your point is?

    My understanding is the foolish and very insensitive remark was made in a fit of pique at having lost the argument over lockdowns. I don't consider anyone believes Johnson uttered the words (assuming he uttered them at all) with any malice aforethought, however it is the insensitivity which will hurt.
    That he allegedly said it after enacting a policy of doing precisely the opposite of what is claimed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
    Indeed. Whether it's a LONG time to a change of PM is a more open question. My MP (Jeremy Hunt) would, I suspect, think that an interesting question.

    As for BluestBlue's thoughts, I can be as partisan as the next man, but I'm not sure I'd joke about someone I liked allegedly talking blithely about tolerating thousands of bodies and then following policies that led to precisely that. It's not really just a game. If he didn't say it, fine. If he did, are you OK with it, BB?
    Isn't he alleged to have said it after the lockdown was agreed?
    ...and your point is?

    My understanding is the foolish and very insensitive remark was made in a fit of pique at having lost the argument over lockdowns. I don't consider anyone believes Johnson uttered the words (assuming he uttered them at all) with any malice aforethought, however it is the insensitivity which will hurt.
    That he allegedly said it after enacting a policy of doing precisely the opposite of what is claimed.
    Too many implied double negatives for me to get my head around after midnight. Good night.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
    Indeed. Whether it's a LONG time to a change of PM is a more open question. My MP (Jeremy Hunt) would, I suspect, think that an interesting question.

    As for BluestBlue's thoughts, I can be as partisan as the next man, but I'm not sure I'd joke about someone I liked allegedly talking blithely about tolerating thousands of bodies and then following policies that led to precisely that. It's not really just a game. If he didn't say it, fine. If he did, are you OK with it, BB?
    Isn't he alleged to have said it after the lockdown was agreed?
    ...and your point is?

    My understanding is the foolish and very insensitive remark was made in a fit of pique at having lost the argument over lockdowns. I don't consider anyone believes Johnson uttered the words (assuming he uttered them at all) with any malice aforethought, however it is the insensitivity which will hurt.
    That he allegedly said it after enacting a policy of doing precisely the opposite of what is claimed.
    Too many implied double negatives for me to get my head around after midnight. Good night.
    Nick said he said the remark and then followed policies that led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. That's simply not true.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
    Indeed. Whether it's a LONG time to a change of PM is a more open question. My MP (Jeremy Hunt) would, I suspect, think that an interesting question.

    As for BluestBlue's thoughts, I can be as partisan as the next man, but I'm not sure I'd joke about someone I liked allegedly talking blithely about tolerating thousands of bodies and then following policies that led to precisely that. It's not really just a game. If he didn't say it, fine. If he did, are you OK with it, BB?
    Isn't he alleged to have said it after the lockdown was agreed?
    ...and your point is?

    My understanding is the foolish and very insensitive remark was made in a fit of pique at having lost the argument over lockdowns. I don't consider anyone believes Johnson uttered the words (assuming he uttered them at all) with any malice aforethought, however it is the insensitivity which will hurt.
    That he allegedly said it after enacting a policy of doing precisely the opposite of what is claimed.
    I think we are all missing the point. What is powerful about Boris is not what is said, but who he is saying it to. He didn’t say it to a room full of scientists thinking it crazy not to have the second lock down, he said it to delegation of back benchers uncomfortable about the hit on businesses in their constituency’s.

    You don’t get anyone into bed telling them what they don’t want to hear.

    The only thing that matters under Boris is all the right things happen. It’s an active, effective government.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    gealbhan said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HEADLINES 27 April:

    Metro: Slurry of sleaze
    Mail: Boris on the ropes
    Express: Boris denies ‘let bodies pile high’ outburst
    Times: Johnson ‘said he would let COVID rip” in lockdown row
    Star: [Boris]- My pants are NOT on fire..
    Telegraph: PM fights to move on from leaks row
    Mirror: Now three people say Johnson raged ‘let bodies pile high’
    Guardian: Pressure on Johnson after claim of slur on COVID dead
    i: Boris tainted by sleaze, say voters

    It's really going to piss you off when he gets away with this, isn't it? :wink:
    All the LAB supporters on here need to know and understand that it is a LONG time to the next General Election...
    Indeed. Whether it's a LONG time to a change of PM is a more open question. My MP (Jeremy Hunt) would, I suspect, think that an interesting question.

    As for BluestBlue's thoughts, I can be as partisan as the next man, but I'm not sure I'd joke about someone I liked allegedly talking blithely about tolerating thousands of bodies and then following policies that led to precisely that. It's not really just a game. If he didn't say it, fine. If he did, are you OK with it, BB?
    Isn't he alleged to have said it after the lockdown was agreed?
    ...and your point is?

    My understanding is the foolish and very insensitive remark was made in a fit of pique at having lost the argument over lockdowns. I don't consider anyone believes Johnson uttered the words (assuming he uttered them at all) with any malice aforethought, however it is the insensitivity which will hurt.
    That he allegedly said it after enacting a policy of doing precisely the opposite of what is claimed.
    I think we are all missing the point. What is powerful about Boris is not what is said, but who he is saying it to. He didn’t say it to a room full of scientists thinking it crazy not to have the second lock down, he said it to delegation of back benchers uncomfortable about the hit on businesses in their constituency’s.

    You don’t get anyone into bed telling them what they don’t want to hear.

    The only thing that matters under Boris is all the right things happen. It’s an active, effective government.
    Back benchers? I thought it was after a meeting of a cabinet sub-committee on covid had wrapped up?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    That poll points to an unworkable stalemate.

    Would that political insecurity bad for Germany be great for Brexit Britain?

    I think yes. I think Boris is one of the luckiest politicians ever.

    Add to the imminent very weak Germany, the EU is under weak leadership lost on Ireland. The Scots Nats may box themselves in calling a referendum they lose badly.

    Tory party funding painter and decorator in a flat insignificant compared to everything moving his way.
    I've always said there's no government like no government. Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands have always prospered most with weak or non-existent governments, and it's only when they've had the smack of strong leadership that things have gone particularly badly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    That poll points to an unworkable stalemate.

    Would that political insecurity bad for Germany be great for Brexit Britain?

    I think yes. I think Boris is one of the luckiest politicians ever.

    Add to the imminent very weak Germany, the EU is under weak leadership lost on Ireland. The Scots Nats may box themselves in calling a referendum they lose badly.

    Tory party funding painter and decorator in a flat insignificant compared to everything moving his way.
    I've always said there's no government like no government. Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands have always prospered most with weak or non-existent governments, and it's only when they've had the smack of strong leadership that things have gone particularly badly.
    Except the trains.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,538
    edited April 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    That poll points to an unworkable stalemate.

    Would that political insecurity bad for Germany be great for Brexit Britain?

    I think yes. I think Boris is one of the luckiest politicians ever.

    Add to the imminent very weak Germany, the EU is under weak leadership lost on Ireland. The Scots Nats may box themselves in calling a referendum they lose badly.

    Tory party funding painter and decorator in a flat insignificant compared to everything moving his way.
    I've always said there's no government like no government. Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands have always prospered most with weak or non-existent governments, and it's only when they've had the smack of strong leadership that things have gone particularly badly.
    True. It occurs to me that most of Blair's bad decisions may not have been made if he hadn't had a majority of either 179 or 167, whereas the good things he did probably would have happened no matter how small his majority had been. (Too many negatives in that sentence).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,538
    edited April 2021
    This is probably one of those "high ice cream sales leads to more drownings near the beach" scenarios that was being discussed earlier.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9513973/At-1-500-people-complain-developed-ringing-ears-vaccine.html

    "The patients who blame their tinnitis on Covid jab: At least 1,500 people complain that they developed ringing in the ears after their vaccine"
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

    I think Mr Newson has been fortunate: CV19 cases are among the lowest in the US, life is returning to normal in CA, vaccine uptake is very high relative to (say) Mississippi, and I think he'll walk the recall election.

    If this had happened last November, he'd have been in real trouble.
    I'm not sure you can write off Caitlyn Jenner.
    No, I'm pretty sure you can write off Caitlin Jenner.
    I am only slightly less likely to be the first person to have lived in Sleepy Hollow, NY, to become governor of California than Caitlin Jenner, and I'm not even running.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    INSA opinion poll:

    CDU/CSU 23%
    Greens 23%
    SPD 16%
    FDP 12%
    Afd 12%
    Linke 8%
    Others 6%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    That's 2 Union 2 Green and one tie from the last five. After years of Union leads.
    Enough to declare something has changed.
    Linke and AfD stable.
    I've got a bet from years ago with someone here (Max I think?) that Linke and AfD combined will be sub-35%

    That's looking pretty certain now in my eyes. The collapse away from the SPD and CDU seems to have all gone to the Greens instead of Linke or AfD. Which is good for Germany in my opinion.
    The FDP has also done well from the collapse of the CDU/CSU - don't forget they missed the 5% threshold not that long ago.
    True, true. Which again is very good news.

    Had 35-40% of Germany backed Linke or AfD then proper governance would have become nigh on impossible.

    I'm curious what form of coalition will come out of the negotiations in the end, considering the SPD really don't want to be junior partners again, and if the Greens come first neither probably do the CDU.

    Green + [either CDU/CSU or SPD] + FDP would be my guess. Strange rainbow.
    That poll points to an unworkable stalemate.

    Would that political insecurity bad for Germany be great for Brexit Britain?

    I think yes. I think Boris is one of the luckiest politicians ever.

    Add to the imminent very weak Germany, the EU is under weak leadership lost on Ireland. The Scots Nats may box themselves in calling a referendum they lose badly.

    Tory party funding painter and decorator in a flat insignificant compared to everything moving his way.
    I've always said there's no government like no government. Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands have always prospered most with weak or non-existent governments, and it's only when they've had the smack of strong leadership that things have gone particularly badly.
    That’s almost like saying mistakes are born out of triumph, whilst greater the weakness greater the caution.

    In reality though, a government with weak numbers in a parliament and in coalition with parties who don’t share views and hobby horses are likely to avoid or fudge the big or more contentious decisions. Logically this will mean drift. Stagnation even?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    That’s almost like saying mistakes are born out of triumph, whilst greater the weakness greater the caution.

    In reality though, a government with weak numbers in a parliament and in coalition with parties who don’t share views and hobby horses are likely to avoid or fudge the big or more contentious decisions. Logically this will mean drift. Stagnation even?

    Or it can mean unnecessary vanity projects, wars and corruption as an untrammelled executive enriches themselves and their friends at the expense of joe public with little to stop them
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

    If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

    I think Mr Newson has been fortunate: CV19 cases are among the lowest in the US, life is returning to normal in CA, vaccine uptake is very high relative to (say) Mississippi, and I think he'll walk the recall election.

    If this had happened last November, he'd have been in real trouble.
    I'm not sure you can write off Caitlyn Jenner.
    No, I'm pretty sure you can write off Caitlin Jenner.
    California voters will have TWO voting opportunities on their recall ballot:

    1) should Gov. Gavin Newsom be removed from office?

    2) if so, who should replace him?

    Note that #2 is operative ONLY if #1 receives a majority of votes cast on that question. In that case, top vote-getter wins.

    So for Caitlyn Jenner to be elected Governor, she needs to NOT ONLY get the most votes on #2, she first needs majority of voters to vote to recall. Without that, does NOT matter how many votes she (or anyone else) gets.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Scott_xP said:

    Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

    If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1

    So what's the deal with supposed tape of BoJo's alleged remarks?

    Without that, still just they say versus he denies, regardless of how many politicos swear on a stack of Bibles.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "@JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: California Secretary of State announces the signature threshold for recalling Gavin Newsom has been met. Election to be held later this year."

    I think Mr Newson has been fortunate: CV19 cases are among the lowest in the US, life is returning to normal in CA, vaccine uptake is very high relative to (say) Mississippi, and I think he'll walk the recall election.

    If this had happened last November, he'd have been in real trouble.
    I'm not sure you can write off Caitlyn Jenner.
    No, I'm pretty sure you can write off Caitlin Jenner.
    I am only slightly less likely to be the first person to have lived in Sleepy Hollow, NY, to become governor of California than Caitlin Jenner, and I'm not even running.
    Did you ever win an Olympic gold medal? OR get your picture on a box of Wheaties?? Or have a sex-change operation???

    Thought not.

    Though IF you took up pole vaulting, am guessing you still have a pole to vault!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    This is probably one of those "high ice cream sales leads to more drownings near the beach" scenarios that was being discussed earlier.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9513973/At-1-500-people-complain-developed-ringing-ears-vaccine.html

    "The patients who blame their tinnitis on Covid jab: At least 1,500 people complain that they developed ringing in the ears after their vaccine"

    My god! I've been jabbed AND I've got tinnitis!

    Only thing I cannot figure out, is how the damn vaccine made my ears rinng YEARS before I actually got my two jabs????
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Anecdotal stories from India hospitals that Remdesivir isn't helping much against their local variant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,538

    Anecdotal stories from India hospitals that Remdesivir isn't helping much against their local variant.

    Disappointing.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Does the Downing Street wallpaper thing (ie 58,000 `loaned' to the PM) actually cut through with voters...? I am genuinely unsure
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Andy_JS said:

    Anecdotal stories from India hospitals that Remdesivir isn't helping much against their local variant.

    Disappointing.
    More than disappointing, worrying.....its no magic bullet, but it has saved loads of lives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157
    USA and UK vaccination doses per population are neck and neck right now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Pulpstar said:

    USA and UK vaccination doses per population are neck and neck right now.

    Way things are going, UK will be overtaking Israel shortly as it is seems Israel have run out of people who want to be jabbed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157

    Pulpstar said:

    USA and UK vaccination doses per population are neck and neck right now.

    Way things are going, UK will be overtaking Israel shortly as it is seems Israel have run out of people who want to be jabbed.
    Their uptake is better than it might first look. We're 8.5 million first (For our pop) doses behind them
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110

    Pulpstar said:

    USA and UK vaccination doses per population are neck and neck right now.

    Way things are going, UK will be overtaking Israel shortly as it is seems Israel have run out of people who want to be jabbed.
    They also have far more kids than we do, so their maximum percentage of the population is lower than us.

    I believe Israel is at around 77% of adults jabbed - the vast, vast majority of whom have been double-jabbed. We probably won't be at that level of adults double jabbed until late June or July, given the long time gaps with the AZ vaccine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Pulpstar said:

    USA and UK vaccination doses per population are neck and neck right now.

    What's interesting is that some states (like California and NY) are still going great guns, while others (like Mississippi or Alabama) are really slowing down. Some of the Southern States look like they might get marooned in the mid-30s - which is shocking really.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    USA and UK vaccination doses per population are neck and neck right now.

    What's interesting is that some states (like California and NY) are still going great guns, while others (like Mississippi or Alabama) are really slowing down. Some of the Southern States look like they might get marooned in the mid-30s - which is shocking really.
    Epidemiologically or socially?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    edited April 2021
    Goodness me we’ve approached tiresome silly season in the British media haven’t we.

    SCANDAL: Political party pays for redecoration of official residence so it doesn’t fall on the taxpayer!!

    DISGRACE: Unnamed sources disclose that man who nearly dies of covid still retains balance when assessing pros and cons of lockdown!!

    If this is the best that long standing enemies can come up with after a year long cease fire, it only serves to show the PM has successfully navigated the choppy waters of both Brexit and the catastrophe of Covid. These are bulllets that would bounce off the Marshmellow Man, much less the Terminator.

    If Gove is behind the briefing (Mail links suggest he might be), he will be out of government by Christmas is my guess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    rcs1000 said:

    This is appalling from the EU and will guarantee no company develops a vaccine at cost in the future.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1386784309823082500?s=20

    What fun!

    Whose reputation is going to be damaged long-term do we think?

    I have a view.


    https://twitter.com/SpinningHugo/status/1386784633409396736?s=20

    On a point of order, Astra Zeneca didn't develop the vaccine at all. It was developed by the University of Oxford, and one of the conditions of licensing was that it was sold at cost.
    Given they took it through clinical trials, and into bulk manufacturing, it would be completely inaccurate to say they didn’t develop it.
    Someone else invented it, sure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    More accounts of the myocarditis side effect associated with Pfizer vaccine.
    https://twitter.com/MarcusReports/status/1386787809751715845

    Note that it is pretty rare, and in the vast majority of cases resolves without problems, and pretty rapidly.
    It’s important people are aware of it, since any vigorous exercise while you’ve got the condition can cause permanent heart damage. (Same reason you shouldn’t exercise if you’ve got a fever - it’s a condition which occurs in around 10% of flu cases, for example.)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,873
    "......And yet, a lot of senior government figures seem to take genuine pleasure in pointing at the polls and excusing any amount of obviously questionable behaviour as “just Boris being Boris”. They’re seemingly incapable of grasping that the entire executive taking on the character of this amoral and discipline-free man will end very badly indeed. It is precisely Johnson’s lack of discipline and moral courage that has resulted in this country having both the highest Covid death toll in Europe and the most unnecessarily long economic shutdown and loss of essential freedoms. Gloating that the voters don’t think they deserve better will not be the recipe for a great British future."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings

    Too angry to be funny but who isn't.......
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    moonshine said:

    Goodness me we’ve approached tiresome silly season in the British media haven’t we.

    SCANDAL: Political party pays for redecoration of official residence so it doesn’t fall on the taxpayer!!

    DISGRACE: Unnamed sources disclose that man who nearly dies of covid still retains balance when assessing pros and cons of lockdown!!

    If this is the best that long standing enemies can come up with after a year long cease fire, it only serves to show the PM has successfully navigated the choppy waters of both Brexit and the catastrophe of Covid. These are bulllets that would bounce off the Marshmellow Man, much less the Terminator.

    If Gove is behind the briefing (Mail links suggest he might be), he will be out of government by Christmas is my guess.

    The story is not who paid, but Johnson not declaring it. In previous governments this has been a resignation matter. Ask Peter Mandelson. But it is undoubtedly true that standards have so slipped under Johnson that at a time when economic optimism is soaring on the back of a highly successful vaccine roll-out this episode will have no effect on anything. Had the story broken at the start of the year, when the government and the PM were far less popular, it would probably have been a very different matter.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Does the Downing Street wallpaper thing (ie 58,000 `loaned' to the PM) actually cut through with voters...? I am genuinely unsure

    Nope.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    Does the Downing Street wallpaper thing (ie 58,000 `loaned' to the PM) actually cut through with voters...? I am genuinely unsure

    Nope.

    Shame they didn’t go for whitewash though. Imagine the punning opportunities.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,873
    Scott_xP said:

    Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.

    If the prime minister continues to deny it, they will speak under oath, says @Peston
    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-26/robert-peston-boris-johnson-did-make-bodies-pile-high-in-their-thousands-comment https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1386793997788663809/video/1

    That Johnson is a liar will not be news to anyone. The only attack that will work is convincing the thicko Johnson lovers-well represented on here-that it matters
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Of course Johnson will get away with this. I genuinely do not understand how anyone can think otherwise. Take a step back and look at the reality of what the Tory-leaning part of the population is seeing and experiencing at the moment:
    * A hugely successful vaccine roll-out.
    * The permanent easing of the lockdown after a long, hard 14 months.
    * A furlough scheme protecting working age incomes.
    * The triple lock protecting the incomes of retirees.
    * Rising house prices.

    On the back of all of this, economic optimism is soaring in a way it hasn't done for years, decades even.

    Does anyone seriously believe that a bout of who said what and he should have declared that is going to have any impact on the national mood or voting intentions? It is an absurd proposition.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is appalling from the EU and will guarantee no company develops a vaccine at cost in the future.
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1386784309823082500?s=20

    What fun!

    Whose reputation is going to be damaged long-term do we think?

    I have a view.


    https://twitter.com/SpinningHugo/status/1386784633409396736?s=20

    On a point of order, Astra Zeneca didn't develop the vaccine at all. It was developed by the University of Oxford, and one of the conditions of licensing was that it was sold at cost.
    Given they took it through clinical trials, and into bulk manufacturing, it would be completely inaccurate to say they didn’t develop it.
    Someone else invented it, sure.
    Fair point.
This discussion has been closed.