Two sources who claim Boris Johnson did say he would rather have ‘bodies pile high in their thousands’ than implement a third lockdown are prepared to speak publicly.
That Johnson is a liar will not be news to anyone. The only attack that will work is convincing the thicko Johnson lovers-well represented on here-that it matters
I happen to be able to see the wood for the trees, as can SO. No one cares enough to get their blood pressure raised about these trivialities, apart from a tiny number of partisan political obsessives. The voters are too busy down the pub, playing golf, keeping their businesses afloat, making up for lost time with family etc... and they are the ones that have life right.
Family being the key word. The PM chose to kill members of lots of people's families to generate "Boris Saves Christmas" headlines. Now that the proof comes out, expect the anger to turn into rage.
When you say "chose to kill" you alienate anyone who is not already convinced that Johnson is evil incarnate. There will be rage - among people who already agree that he is evil incarnate.
It was deliberate and it was done twice.
First - the policy to ship Covid patients into care homes from hospital with no testing allowed. Reports at the time of fraught care home staff arguing with ambulance crews that they wouldn't take the residents back, denials that it was policy until it was proven. Result - 20,000 dead in care homes in a short period Second - the denial of the need to lock down through the winter. The declaration of the absurd 5 day period where Covid wouldn't get us. The Boris Saves Christmas headlines. Result? 68k cases a day in January. We haven't had the proof yet, but Cummings and now two other people have come forward to prove it.
Watch the Daily Mail. Their coverage at the moment is there to whip up a frenzy. Next they move into heart-rendering stories of people who lost their closest loved-ones as a direct result of this policy. We already had it on radio phone-ins yesterday, and the popular tabloids will be plastered with it.
I've been saying for months that this policy will sink him and that the Mail would go crazy over it. And here they are.
The Daily Heil exists to whip up hate.
But its impact is rather trivial and its typically laughed at by most normal people.
Its a shame you've succombed to its lure.
Putting things in context
The UK is fretting about some wallpaper meanwhile
The head of the EU believes her priority is who gets to sit on a sofa first rather than the 1000s of her citizens dying each day
The french army is making noises about why it might be better if it ran the country instead of the fop president
The UK is "fretting" about the probity of its PM. This is allowed, I think, despite this being a big old complex world with lots of bad stuff going on.
LOL show me a UK PM whose probity wasnt questionable. Likewise a LOTO
Ok. So you don't care about this stuff and never will.
"Man of the World" Alanbrooke. He knows how this dirty old world ticks. Seen it all, done it all.
LOL indeed.
Im just older than you and have seen it all before.
To expect perfect politicians is just plain naive, they come as a package faults and all and we judge them on how well they run the country not on who they shag or how dodgy their mates are.
We're similar vintage, I sense. Although I'm not disclosing. Pagan thinks I'm 85 and Cookie thinks I'm 35. and I quite like what that implies about my posting.
Thing is, when assessing politicians, there's a territory between (i) I don't give a shit how corrupt they are and (ii) I expect perfection, they should be saints. This is where I am and where I think everyone should be. It's a large territory so it's quite easy to find.
Excessive and performative cynicism, btw, is its own form of naivety. I diagnose it in you.
UK politicians arent generally venally corrupt, the system doesnt allow it . They are flawed same as the rest of us. We judge them on what they do not on some arbitrary moral spectrum.
???
There's the fatal flaw in this one.
you mean you have a superior morality to everyone else on the board ? Interesting.
Obviously not, no. A silly non-sequitur. You're thrashing around.
Anyway, thanks for the exchange. Off to play some bad golf.
I wonder why they cancelled the on camera briefings..?
Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.
The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻♂️
Philip given that you think this is a storm in a teacup content-wise, and yet all the papers are plastered with it, what do you think the political fallout/effect will be. Zero?
Interesting question.
For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
Well as I noted previously, and despite the ERM which I understand although disagree slightly as pre the voter on the street, in 1997 everything was going swimmingly. It was the sleaze and a tired Cons administration.
Although he tried to rebrand in 2019 (successfully imo) we will have had a Cons govt one way or another for 14 years by 2024.
Once people forget about Covid (!) they will look for other stories and sleaze is an easy one for the papers to get behind.
So I think the numbers might be reversed. Albeit I have absolutely no faith that SKS can regain the mantle of Opposition.
SNP 45% (-2) Labour 22% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-3) Liberal Democrats 8% (+2) Greens 4% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 36% (-) Conservatives 21% (-1) Labour 18% (+1) Greens 10% (+1) Alba 6% (-) Liberal Democrats 6% (-) All for Unity 2% (-)
On behalf of Scot Goes Pop, the polling company Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1075 adults in Scotland, including 16 and 17 year olds, from 21st-26th April.
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
SNP 45% (-2) Labour 22% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-3) Liberal Democrats 8% (+2) Greens 4% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 36% (-) Conservatives 21% (-1) Labour 18% (+1) Greens 10% (+1) Alba 6% (-) Liberal Democrats 6% (-) All for Unity 2% (-)
On behalf of Scot Goes Pop, the polling company Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1075 adults in Scotland, including 16 and 17 year olds, from 21st-26th April.
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
No SNP majority as in 2011 (65 needed for that) before the legal 2014 referendum, no legal indyref2 will be allowed by the UK government, tough.
Brexit also clearly not a material change in circumstances as there was already an SNP and Green government before Brexit so the once in a generation 2014 vote stands
I wonder why they cancelled the on camera briefings..?
Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.
The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻♂️
Philip given that you think this is a storm in a teacup content-wise, and yet all the papers are plastered with it, what do you think the political fallout/effect will be. Zero?
Interesting question.
For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
Talking about zoom - does anyone still do social zooms?
I find them the most depressing thing going.
Yes, quite a lot of us (especially those with international friends) find they make a pleasant supplement even though we're now also meeting friends in gardens. Joint cooking in mutual homes is also a thing. I think social Zoom is dying out among those who didn't like it, and continuing for those who did. Nothing wrong with having the choice, surely?
The use of Zoom for work of all kinds is also much more prominent as an option. I've been asked to do some quasi-medical interpretation from and to Danish in Llandudno. I quoted £935 to do it including 12 hours of travel and an overnight stay, or £125 to do it for an hour by Zoom. They've very sensibly opted for the latter, which probably wouldn't have occurred to any of us pre-pandemic.
Faisal Islam has just received interestingly the Moderna vaccine.
My mind is now running over possibilities for how one receives the vaccine interestingly... Delivered by dart gun? By umbrella? By pricking a finger on a spinning wheel?
If Starmer loses Hartlepool and has a bad election I'd be surprised if there aren't rumblings of a leadership challenge. Why should the left of the party sit back and accept electoral defeat in 2024? Owen Smith has made the argument on behalf of the Labour left (though I dont expect they have anyone who can beat Starmer).
On yesterday's Mori Labour will gain a lot of county council seats from the Tories next week and win London by a landslide and comfortably hold Wales even if they lose Hartlepool (which has special circumstances due to the high BXP vote in 2019).
On today's Panelbase in Scotland Labour will also overtake the Conservatives for second at Holyrood and prevent the SNP getting a majority
But if they lose Hartlepool, Tyne Tees and West Midlands and lose London its obvious what the media narrative will be, and it won't be kind to Starmer.
Labour is not going to lose London whatever happens, indeed they are likely to make gains there in the Assembly even if they lose Hartlepool.
Until all the council and Scotland results are in we cannot see a clear picture.
Hartlepool to me does not tell us much, even if the Labour party vote is up there the Tories will likely still win if they squeeze the huge 25% BXP vote.
Hartlepool is a distraction, it is the net change in council seats, in London Assembly and Scottish and Welsh Parliament seats that will really tell us what the picture is now
Blimey, for once I actually agree with HYFUD. By elections are not predictive of a whole lot, though FWIW I think the Tories will still struggle to win Hartlepool. Even if they were to win there and win in WM, they will not win in London, and may be thumped.
As far as Scotland is concerned, the feeling on the ground seems like the big news will be a setback for the SNP. How big a setback, I am not sure, but the tide is definately running away from them and Labour and the Lib Dems rather than the Tories will be the beneficiaries. Alba may get in, but effectively they are damaging the SNP vote, not extending it. The post election fall out amongst the Nationalists could be very bitter indeed. The Tories without Ruth are also going backwards
So, in judging the overall national picture, the Tories will probably be able to point to WM and maybe Wales and Hartlepool and want to downplay London and Scotland. Labour will highlight London and possibly Scotland and downplay WM and possibly Hartlepool. The Lib Dems will not be massacred and could be on for a respectable result overall, but masking very poor results in Wales and parts of England with a solid performance elsewhere. Overall, my feeling is that it will be a bit curates egg for all the parties, with no real overall winner, even if the spin decides otherwise.
SNP 45% (-2) Labour 22% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-3) Liberal Democrats 8% (+2) Greens 4% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 36% (-) Conservatives 21% (-1) Labour 18% (+1) Greens 10% (+1) Alba 6% (-) Liberal Democrats 6% (-) All for Unity 2% (-)
On behalf of Scot Goes Pop, the polling company Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1075 adults in Scotland, including 16 and 17 year olds, from 21st-26th April.
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
No SNP majority as in 2011 (65 needed for that) before the legal 2014 referendum, no legal indyref2 will be allowed by the UK government, tough.
Brexit also clearly not a material change in circumstances as there was already an SNP and Green government before Brexit so the once in a generation 2014 vote stands
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
O/t perhaps but I wonder if there is anything in this, from the Guardian.
"UK to come under scrutiny in Italy’s largest mafia trial in decades Witnesses will be asked to respond to claims the ’Ndrangheta has laundered billions of euros in City of London."
The report beneath suggests there could be almost as much dodgy ’Ndrangheta and Mafia money swilling about in London as Russian.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
Someone, in the history of humanity, had to be the first to eat cooked meat, send a text message, fly a plane, travel in space, play a flute, write a poem, etc.
How many of us were the first at any of those things? Or, indeed, anything?
Sure, someone has to be first, but that doesn't mean it isn't vanishingly unlikely.
I'd stick the probability of aliens being out there at ~ 1, and the probability we'll make contact at 0. The sheer size of the universe is a big issue; likely several civilisations out there all wondering if anyone else is out there - just all too far apart to reach each other.
That is all well and good but this is a political site. What is your explanation for the very senior political figures on both sides of the aisle making the statements that they have in the last 6-12 months? What is the big conspiracy that gets all on the same side Harry Reid, Trump’s National Intelligence Director, Clinton’s head of the CIA and Marco Rubio. All saying things that in the eyes of many, indicate mental illness?
They don't have evidence of aliens. They have evidence of things that we can't explain. Aliens are a possible explanation, but there may be others.
Before special relativity wobbles observed in the orbit of Mercury were thought to indicate the existence of another planet, closer to the sun. But no direct evidence of such a planet was found.
UFOs are Unidentified Flying Objects, just as the wobbles in Mercury's orbit were Unexplained Orbital Perturbations. Get back to me when UFOs become AFOs - Alien Flying Objects.
I keep hearing about a video from '50 feet' etc, but until I see it, I don't believe it. There are huge levels of confirmation bias going on here - those that want there to be aliens behind UFO's are being led a fine dance. I note almost all those speaking out tend to be 'ex' officials.
I wonder why they cancelled the on camera briefings..?
Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.
The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻♂️
Philip given that you think this is a storm in a teacup content-wise, and yet all the papers are plastered with it, what do you think the political fallout/effect will be. Zero?
Interesting question.
For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.
If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.
TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
Because the universe is a great deal older than our solar system, and it's very likely that planets with the capacity to host life existed long before the earth ?
All reminding me of the volte face everyone did about the House of Lords from an outdated undemocratic institution to the beating heart of the remain diehards.
I wonder why they cancelled the on camera briefings..?
Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.
The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻♂️
Philip given that you think this is a storm in a teacup content-wise, and yet all the papers are plastered with it, what do you think the political fallout/effect will be. Zero?
Interesting question.
For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.
If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.
TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.
42% Tories 36% Labour would be a swing of 3% from the Tories to Labour since the general election of 2019 so the Tories would likely still win narrowly a la 1992 or at least be largest party in a hung parliament but Labour would also make significant gains
Vladislav Ivanov, a 27-year-old from Vladivostok, was kicked out of the Produce Camp 2021 on Saturday after viewers ignored his pleas to leave and backed him all the way to the final.
Ivanov, who speaks Mandarin, joined the show as a Chinese translator. But he said he was invited to sign up as a contestant after the directors noticed his good looks. “They asked if I’d like to try a new life,” Ivanov said during the show.
He appeared to regret his decision almost immediately but could not leave without breaching his contract. His lack of enthusiasm played out in half-hearted singing, rapping and dancing alongside the other, more eager contestants.
“Becoming a member of a boy band is not my dream as I can’t sing and dance,” Ivanov said in Chinese on the show, according to SCMP. “I hope the judges won’t support me. While the others want to get an A, I want to get an F as it stands for freedom.”
Performing under the stage name Lelush, he urged the public to vote him out, saying he did not want to be among the 11 winners of the show, who are contractually obliged to form a boy band.
“Don’t love me, you’ll get no results,” he said on one episode. But viewers took to his dour persona and kept him in the running for nearly three months....
I wonder why they cancelled the on camera briefings..?
Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.
The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻♂️
Philip given that you think this is a storm in a teacup content-wise, and yet all the papers are plastered with it, what do you think the political fallout/effect will be. Zero?
Interesting question.
For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.
If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.
TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.
That chart shows the critical interplay between the LDs and Labour and underlines the current situation where UKIP(etc) acts in the same way, but in an opposite direction for the Tories.
The path therefore for Labour is clear. Neutralise UKIP(etc) muchas Cameron killed the LDs and revive the LDs or Greens as stopping off point for wavering Tories.
Talking about zoom - does anyone still do social zooms?
I find them the most depressing thing going.
Yes, quite a lot of us (especially those with international friends) find they make a pleasant supplement even though we're now also meeting friends in gardens. Joint cooking in mutual homes is also a thing. I think social Zoom is dying out among those who didn't like it, and continuing for those who did. Nothing wrong with having the choice, surely?
The use of Zoom for work of all kinds is also much more prominent as an option. I've been asked to do some quasi-medical interpretation from and to Danish in Llandudno. I quoted £935 to do it including 12 hours of travel and an overnight stay, or £125 to do it for an hour by Zoom. They've very sensibly opted for the latter, which probably wouldn't have occurred to any of us pre-pandemic.
Absolutely. Each to their own Nick. You're not a great pub goer as I remember, nor a fan of much of modern, populist society that "the young" take part in.
So it is elegant that you should have picked up the techno-solution to socialising with such gusto.
I wonder why they cancelled the on camera briefings..?
Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.
The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻♂️
Philip given that you think this is a storm in a teacup content-wise, and yet all the papers are plastered with it, what do you think the political fallout/effect will be. Zero?
Interesting question.
For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.
If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.
TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.
I know we've discussed this and I get your "dead men walking" about the Cons following Black Wednesday but for me there are too many variables to attribute an election defeat to an incident, no matter how profound, that occurred five years previously.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
Because the universe is a great deal older than our solar system, and it's very likely that planets with the capacity to host life existed long before the earth ?
Doesn't really work like that though. Older civilisations could easily have been wiped out before they reached our level of technology.
I'm not saying it's particularly likely, but it's certainly a possible reason why we have yet to see verifiable signs of intelligent alien life.
It's just as likely as some Star Trek style galactic rule that leaves "undeveloped civilisations" alone.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.
The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.
The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.
So what? You don't have to patronise me. I understand physics. It is an accepted possible theory that we could be the first — the fact is that we just don't know.
Basically, for us to be the most advanced civilisation is special pleading. It is invoking the tooth fairy.
The main rule of modern science is you must not invoke tooth fairies.
I'm not sure you can say I'm "invoking the tooth fairy" when we've yet to discover any sign of any form of complex alien life, anywhere, never mind "intelligent" alien life.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.
The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.
So what? You don't have to patronise me. I understand physics. It is an accepted possible theory that we could be the first — the fact is that we just don't know.
It isn't a "theory" to say we are first.
It is like saying that we are special, we live in a special place and at a special time. That is not a theory.
We do know that all cosmologies built on the idea that we are special have turned out to be wrong.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.
The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.
So what? You don't have to patronise me. I understand physics. It is an accepted possible theory that we could be the first — the fact is that we just don't know.
It isn't a "theory" to say we are first.
It is like saying that we are special, we live in a special place and at a special time. That is not a theory.
We do know that all cosmologies build on the idea that we are special have turned out to be wrong.
Your last sentence is an irrelevance to truth. We could very well be special in this instance, we just don't know.
Like I said, we have zero evidence of any form of complex alien life whatsoever.
I wonder why they cancelled the on camera briefings..?
Probably for the same reason no prior PM has started them.
The media and opposition scored a real own goal getting these cancelled. Couldn't see the bigger picture, idiots. 🤦🏻♂️
Philip given that you think this is a storm in a teacup content-wise, and yet all the papers are plastered with it, what do you think the political fallout/effect will be. Zero?
Interesting question.
For many months now all polls have been within Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
I suspect that in say two months time once this has all washed out and the initial post Local bounce has faded that polls will probably still be Margin of Error of Con 42, Lab 36.
So yes zero, within Margin of Error. Satisfied? What do you think?
I do, but virtually every poll for months now has been within MoE of 42/36. Con currently a bit above it, Lab currently a bit below it, but the baseline for months now seems to be 42/36 +/- MoE.
If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.
TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.
It was 100% sleaze that wrecked the Tories in 1997 (and a charismatic Labour leader) and it had bugger all to do with Black Wednesday
If a civilisation was so advanced that they had discovered FTL travel, we'd know about them.
Therefore as we don't know about them, either FTL travel is impossible, or no civilisation is that advanced.
Perhaps there are too many corners of the universe that are more interesting than this one.
Aliens might just not be that interested in what wallpaper our Great Leader has chosen.
A civilisation that had discovered FTL travel would have unlimited energy and therefore unlimited resources and unlimited growth potential. You'd be looking at exponential population growth on a galactic scale.
Mr. Gate, we don't know if complex life is unlikely. Our basis of comparison is minimal.
It might be really common.
There might also be an inherent conflict between adaptability and inventiveness on one side, and instability and chaos on the other. Civilisations capable of making more powerful weapons may be prone to self-annihilation.
NEW: No10 refuses three times to deny Boris Johnson said “let it rip” over coronavirus. Instead the PM’s spokesman says: “The reports put forward, the speculation, they distort the actions that the PM has taken.
Mr. Gate, we don't know if complex life is unlikely. Our basis of comparison is minimal.
It might be really common.
There might also be an inherent conflict between adaptability and inventiveness on one side, and instability and chaos on the other. Civilisations capable of making more powerful weapons may be prone to self-annihilation.
But that's all I'm saying. We don't know.
Life may be common and may be really uncommon.
If it is really uncommon, it's possible that we are most advanced civilisation in the universe. It's not a totally ridiculous assertion.
Basically, for us to be the most advanced civilisation is special pleading. It is invoking the tooth fairy.
The main rule of modern science is you must not invoke tooth fairies.
I'm not sure you can say I'm "invoking the tooth fairy" when we've yet to discover any sign of any form of complex alien life, anywhere, never mind "intelligent" alien life.
Everything is guess work and probabilities.
Judging recent events there is little or no intelligent life on Earth. Why we should assume it exists elsewhere is beyond me.
SNP 45% (-2) Labour 22% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-3) Liberal Democrats 8% (+2) Greens 4% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 36% (-) Conservatives 21% (-1) Labour 18% (+1) Greens 10% (+1) Alba 6% (-) Liberal Democrats 6% (-) All for Unity 2% (-)
On behalf of Scot Goes Pop, the polling company Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1075 adults in Scotland, including 16 and 17 year olds, from 21st-26th April.
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
No SNP majority as in 2011 (65 needed for that) before the legal 2014 referendum, no legal indyref2 will be allowed by the UK government, tough.
Brexit also clearly not a material change in circumstances as there was already an SNP and Green government before Brexit so the once in a generation 2014 vote stands
I see your knowledge of Scotland and her people are on the ball as usual.
Mr. Gate, I refuse to believe that the most advanced civilisation in the universe came within a few thousand votes of having Jeremy Corbyn lead a major part of it.
If Starmer loses Hartlepool and has a bad election I'd be surprised if there aren't rumblings of a leadership challenge. Why should the left of the party sit back and accept electoral defeat in 2024? Owen Smith has made the argument on behalf of the Labour left (though I dont expect they have anyone who can beat Starmer).
On yesterday's Mori Labour will gain a lot of county council seats from the Tories next week and win London by a landslide and comfortably hold Wales even if they lose Hartlepool (which has special circumstances due to the high BXP vote in 2019).
On today's Panelbase in Scotland Labour will also overtake the Conservatives for second at Holyrood and prevent the SNP getting a majority
But if they lose Hartlepool, Tyne Tees and West Midlands and lose London its obvious what the media narrative will be, and it won't be kind to Starmer.
Labour is not going to lose London whatever happens, indeed they are likely to make gains there in the Assembly even if they lose Hartlepool.
Until all the council and Scotland results are in we cannot see a clear picture.
Hartlepool to me does not tell us much, even if the Labour party vote is up there the Tories will likely still win if they squeeze the huge 25% BXP vote.
Hartlepool is a distraction, it is the net change in council seats, in London Assembly and Scottish and Welsh Parliament seats that will really tell us what the picture is now
Blimey, for once I actually agree with HYFUD. By elections are not predictive of a whole lot, though FWIW I think the Tories will still struggle to win Hartlepool. Even if they were to win there and win in WM, they will not win in London, and may be thumped.
As far as Scotland is concerned, the feeling on the ground seems like the big news will be a setback for the SNP. How big a setback, I am not sure, but the tide is definately running away from them and Labour and the Lib Dems rather than the Tories will be the beneficiaries. Alba may get in, but effectively they are damaging the SNP vote, not extending it. The post election fall out amongst the Nationalists could be very bitter indeed. The Tories without Ruth are also going backwards
So, in judging the overall national picture, the Tories will probably be able to point to WM and maybe Wales and Hartlepool and want to downplay London and Scotland. Labour will highlight London and possibly Scotland and downplay WM and possibly Hartlepool. The Lib Dems will not be massacred and could be on for a respectable result overall, but masking very poor results in Wales and parts of England with a solid performance elsewhere. Overall, my feeling is that it will be a bit curates egg for all the parties, with no real overall winner, even if the spin decides otherwise.
How does ALBA hurt SNP, they are only on the list and SNP get almost no seats on List, any seats ALBA get will be from unionists. You do not seem to understand how it works at Holyrood and it will in fact strengthen independence parties a lot. Once court cases are over it is likely Sturgeon will be gone and even if not her feet will be held to the fire by Alba and she will possibly lose many to them if she continues as previously. Looking like a really good election for independence supporters , which to cover the continuing ignorance on here, does not mean SNP.
Why hasn't SETI found anything? If another species had discovered FTL travel (which is probably forever going to be science fiction) then we should have been colonised before now and there'd be evidence all over the stars.
Once you have FTL then exponential growth probably takes over.
Radio signals are not very powerful. Even our biggest transmitters and radars would not be detectable over a large distance by normal means. You would have to use gravitational lensing to target particular spots. A beacon might be detectable but it would still need to be enormously powerful to be detectable at a large distance. So we aren't looking for normal radio signals, nor can we examine every star in detail. 99%+ of all artificial radio signals in even our neck of the woods would be undetectable.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
It's also possible that while not alone, we're the most advanced intelligent civilisation in the universe. Someone has to be first, why not us?
The Sun is 4.5 Gyrs old. There are stars in the Galaxy that are nearly 14 Gyrs old. That is why.
The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.
Basically, for us to be the most advanced civilisation is special pleading. It is invoking the tooth fairy.
The main rule of modern science is you must not invoke tooth fairies.
Though, of course, stars have to be born and die before life is possible. There's a better case for us to be the only civilisation than there is for us to be the most advanced one.
NEW: No10 refuses three times to deny Boris Johnson said “let it rip” over coronavirus. Instead the PM’s spokesman says: “The reports put forward, the speculation, they distort the actions that the PM has taken.
That's three admissions three denials. About par for the course.
Comments
Anyway, thanks for the exchange. Off to play some bad golf.
Although he tried to rebrand in 2019 (successfully imo) we will have had a Cons govt one way or another for 14 years by 2024.
Once people forget about Covid (!) they will look for other stories and sleaze is an easy one for the papers to get behind.
So I think the numbers might be reversed. Albeit I have absolutely no faith that SKS can regain the mantle of Opposition.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll):
SNP 45% (-2)
Labour 22% (+2)
Conservatives 20% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)
Greens 4% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 36% (-)
Conservatives 21% (-1)
Labour 18% (+1)
Greens 10% (+1)
Alba 6% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
All for Unity 2% (-)
On behalf of Scot Goes Pop, the polling company Panelbase interviewed a representative sample of 1075 adults in Scotland, including 16 and 17 year olds, from 21st-26th April.
Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 61 (-2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 11 (+5), Alba 8 (+8), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
Pro-independence parties: 80 seats (62.0%)
Anti-independence parties: 49 seats (38.0%)
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS
Brexit also clearly not a material change in circumstances as there was already an SNP and Green government before Brexit so the once in a generation 2014 vote stands
The use of Zoom for work of all kinds is also much more prominent as an option. I've been asked to do some quasi-medical interpretation from and to Danish in Llandudno. I quoted £935 to do it including 12 hours of travel and an overnight stay, or £125 to do it for an hour by Zoom. They've very sensibly opted for the latter, which probably wouldn't have occurred to any of us pre-pandemic.
As far as Scotland is concerned, the feeling on the ground seems like the big news will be a setback for the SNP. How big a setback, I am not sure, but the tide is definately running away from them and Labour and the Lib Dems rather than the Tories will be the beneficiaries. Alba may get in, but effectively they are damaging the SNP vote, not extending it. The post election fall out amongst the Nationalists could be very bitter indeed. The Tories without Ruth are also going backwards
So, in judging the overall national picture, the Tories will probably be able to point to WM and maybe Wales and Hartlepool and want to downplay London and Scotland. Labour will highlight London and possibly Scotland and downplay WM and possibly Hartlepool. The Lib Dems will not be massacred and could be on for a respectable result overall, but masking very poor results in Wales and parts of England with a solid performance elsewhere. Overall, my feeling is that it will be a bit curates egg for all the parties, with no real overall winner, even if the spin decides otherwise.
In the medium term a better bet is to look for biosignatures, or the signs of industrial activity, in light reflected from nearby extrasolar planets.
Besides that advanced civilisations might well have decided to keep a low profile and not blast out obvious signs of their existence into the void.
"UK to come under scrutiny in Italy’s largest mafia trial in decades
Witnesses will be asked to respond to claims the ’Ndrangheta has laundered billions of euros in City of London."
The report beneath suggests there could be almost as much dodgy ’Ndrangheta and Mafia money swilling about in London as Russian.
The reality is that as long we’re in lockdown, it can’t happen.
How many of us were the first at any of those things? Or, indeed, anything?
Sure, someone has to be first, but that doesn't mean it isn't vanishingly unlikely.
And because we are grown-ups when it comes to vaccines mostly everyone shrugged because they could see it was reasonable.
Come on Dom, release the audio, all is forgiven!
If a couple of months from now we're 42/36 +/- MoE then nothing has changed.
TOPPING - it wasn't a drip drip of stories that destroyed the Tories in 1997. The Tories were dead in the polls from Black Wednesday onwards. They lost their credibility and never gained it back.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/27/russian-man-trapped-chinese-reality-tv-show-voted-out-lelush-vladislav-ivanov-produce-camp
The reality TV ordeal of a Russian who joined a Chinese boy band show by accident – and made it to the final despite urging fans to vote him off – has finally ended after nearly three months.
Vladislav Ivanov, a 27-year-old from Vladivostok, was kicked out of the Produce Camp 2021 on Saturday after viewers ignored his pleas to leave and backed him all the way to the final.
Ivanov, who speaks Mandarin, joined the show as a Chinese translator. But he said he was invited to sign up as a contestant after the directors noticed his good looks. “They asked if I’d like to try a new life,” Ivanov said during the show.
He appeared to regret his decision almost immediately but could not leave without breaching his contract. His lack of enthusiasm played out in half-hearted singing, rapping and dancing alongside the other, more eager contestants.
“Becoming a member of a boy band is not my dream as I can’t sing and dance,” Ivanov said in Chinese on the show, according to SCMP. “I hope the judges won’t support me. While the others want to get an A, I want to get an F as it stands for freedom.”
Performing under the stage name Lelush, he urged the public to vote him out, saying he did not want to be among the 11 winners of the show, who are contractually obliged to form a boy band.
“Don’t love me, you’ll get no results,” he said on one episode. But viewers took to his dour persona and kept him in the running for nearly three months....
The path therefore for Labour is clear. Neutralise UKIP(etc) muchas Cameron killed the LDs and revive the LDs or Greens as stopping off point for wavering Tories.
So it is elegant that you should have picked up the techno-solution to socialising with such gusto.
Of course we'll never know one way or the other.
I'm not saying it's particularly likely, but it's certainly a possible reason why we have yet to see verifiable signs of intelligent alien life.
It's just as likely as some Star Trek style galactic rule that leaves "undeveloped civilisations" alone.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-fermi-paradox-and-great-filter.html
The Sun is just a teenager -- we are just a new toy in a teenager's bedroom.
EDIT: I see @Nigelb has made the same point.
Basically, for us to be the most advanced civilisation is special pleading. It is invoking the tooth fairy.
The main rule of modern science is you must not invoke tooth fairies.
Engage.
If a civilisation was so advanced that they had discovered FTL travel, we'd know about them.
Therefore as we don't know about them, either FTL travel is impossible, or no civilisation is that advanced.
Everything is guess work and probabilities.
It is like saying that we are special, we live in a special place and at a special time. That is not a theory.
We do know that all cosmologies built on the idea that we are special have turned out to be wrong.
The idea it's plausible but we will be the first to do it seems exceedingly unlikely.
Aliens might just not be that interested in what wallpaper our Great Leader has chosen.
Like I said, we have zero evidence of any form of complex alien life whatsoever.
It's an interesting thought exercise.
My money is on "yes", to some extent, but so far away we'll never know.
It might be really common.
There might also be an inherent conflict between adaptability and inventiveness on one side, and instability and chaos on the other. Civilisations capable of making more powerful weapons may be prone to self-annihilation.
If there's more intelligent life out there, there's almost certainly lots of it, and thus we aren't very interesting.
If there isn't, then, well, there isn't...
Life may be common and may be really uncommon.
If it is really uncommon, it's possible that we are most advanced civilisation in the universe. It's not a totally ridiculous assertion.
We may never know...
The SNP won a majority in 2011.
George Galloway has to always wear that fucking hat to hide his antennae.
https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1386989411028635648
NEW THREAD
Once court cases are over it is likely Sturgeon will be gone and even if not her feet will be held to the fire by Alba and she will possibly lose many to them if she continues as previously.
Looking like a really good election for independence supporters , which to cover the continuing ignorance on here, does not mean SNP.
There's a better case for us to be the only civilisation than there is for us to be the most advanced one.