Former Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillam, dies after long illness – politicalbetting.com
Former Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillam, dies after long illness – politicalbetting.com
The Presss Association has reported within the past hour that the Conservative MP for Chesham and Amersham, Cheryl Gillan, has died at the age of 68 after a long illness.
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Nobody should die of cancer in this day and age.
From the boe research paper
“ the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‐linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.”
Wow
Of course, since publication, rates/gilt yields have dropped further.
If rates/gilts go back up reasonably soon, we might be somewhere near peak property prices right about now.
https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/trending-globally/mama-bear-cubs-crossing-road-connecticut-7259463/
Re betting: safe Tory hold
"IIRC the "we can print smallpox, if we ever wanted" idea was discussed a decade or 2 ago. There was some consideration to each of the countries still holding their samples destroying them simultaneously. Again, IIRC, the view that making a species deliberately extinct was wrong, won out."
2 decades ago it would have been very much harder to print smallpox than it would be today. And today we have had real instances of extinct diseases (horsepox) and strains (Spanish flu) being de-extincted through printing up of the sequence. And it is not just viruses - work is well advanced to re-create the American chestnut modified to be resistant to the blight that caused its extinction.
One possible reason is that they were down to 166 MPs before the 2005 election. So probably don't have so many oldies hanging on.
Cameron, in particular, tried to encourage younger PPC's.
RIP.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/ gives some details on the latter - it doesn’t on the former claim, but the majority of the 300 odd MPs who were 55 or over by 1997 were Tory.
Of course, the mass clearout in 1997 had quite a lot to do with bringing down the average age...
She was dynamic and a character and it was a pleasure to be in her company
Condolences to her family, colleagues and friends
I don't think so, but you do wonder sometimes.
I should say, this is why I think the Salmondites have their doubts about Sturgeon's commitment. They wonder if she really would be prepared to argue black is white during a campaign. I think she would but, obviously, Eck knows her better than I do.
If a referendum follows I am quite relaxed about the outcome but I have to say as someone who loves Scotland it is not a happy place with so much hate, divisions and rancour
Purely out of curiosity, how unusual is Chesham and Amersham in (I think) having had three different parties in second place to the same winner in the last three general elections?
Seriously I assume the LDs benefitting from local election visibility? As for Labour - maybe it's all the talk of Mandy coming back - but I would say that wouldn't I?
Now, I'm super excited about immunotherapy, and what that will do to cancer rates. But we're all still going to get old. And we're all still going to die.
"If some of the figures you want to believe for 'COVID deaths' are correct, the implied deaths from cancer, MI, etc fall to 50-75% less than normal rates. This is vanishingly improbable."
The 2020 figures for Dementia and Alzheimer's disease were 119.5/100,000 versus the 5-year average of 118.7; the figure for iwschaemic heart disease was 94.9 versus the average of 102.8; the figure for cerebrovascular disease was 50.3 versus an average of 57.5; the figure for all the cancers shown in the top ten put together (trachea, bronchus, lung, colon, sigmoid, rectum, anus, lymphoid, haematopoeietic and related tissues) was 98.1 against an average of 102.3.
So cancer was 4% down (not "50-75% less"), and heart disease was just over 7% down (again, not "50-75% less").
Seriously, do the denialists never bother to check the "facts" they breathlessly share around?
Meanwhile it looks like indecision on travel, despite the promises it would be unveiled in detail today.
https://twitter.com/mgoldenmsp/status/1378747834359513089?s=20
The lost referendum was only in 2014 and since then there has been Brexit and the pandemic with room for little else. Sturgeon has consistently made the drip drip case that Brexit means Sindy2 must happen once Covid is dealt with and she is putting it - Sindy2 - front and centre of the SNP campaign for these elections.
What is it she was expected to do (up to now) that she hasn't done?
17 May is the date that travel announcement is due to be made. Why would it be made today, when its due to be made on 17 May?
It would be a tremendous gamble. The Union would either be saved or sundered on his watch, and I somehow doubt that he wishes to be remembered for the latter.
As for electoral prospects in upcoming C&A by-election, well yours truly has one foot (sort of) in the Irish American political tradition, where speaking of political succession at the wake of the late incumbent, is zero disrespect. Instead the opposite.
Indeed, the assembled politicos & pundits are generally quite sorry, that the guest of honor is not in a position to add her learned commentary to the discussion!
You are taking all your fences at once
Seems that is fair comment for some of our own posters
I don't see how anyone listening to the Prime Minister's response can credibly claim that the last step of the road map means anything. We're not going to be let go to get on with our lives, we're going to be chained by officialdom - indefinitely it would appear.
This will be the first by election the Tories will be defending from the LDs since the Brecon and Radnorshire by election in August 2019
You are taking all your fences at once
Still why would anything be announced today when the report is being made on 12 April, which is a week today?
It’s all the stuff we know we already
Chesham to Amersham is a very nice route for a stroll - it's about five miles from one to the other by the scenic route and it's very pleasant on a sunny afternoon. Amersham Old Town is one of the prettiest streets of 17th century architecture I've seen. And Little Missenden is very nice too.
With all the allowances for the unpredictability of bye-elections, I assume it'll be a Con hold. A 16k majority is a challenge even for the LibDems at the moment. Though it would somehow fit the mood of the times if Tories lost it while winning Hartlepool
If the disease is rampant in June then fine, keep giving it a good kick, but if it is crushed then there is no excuse for any of this rubbish to continue.
Quite funny really
Ok, not that.
If he's asked a question, should he not answer it? 🤔
Very poor just like RT Davies in Wales
On the by election, will someone will stand on a "stop HS2 platform" or has that ship sailed train departed? (obviously electing one MP on such grounds wouldn't make a difference, but it's a chance to become an MP for a few years).
That would be my guess anyway.
Further research seems to indicate that while non-inflation linked gilts have ticked up a fair bit in the last few months, inflation linked gilts are fairly stable.
https://think.ing.com/articles/uk-how-much-higher-can-gilt-yields-rise
Not sure I shoulda called peak house prices. They could yet increase further...
Look forward to your piece!
How you think it has anything to do with vaccine uptake is strange
Yet look at the responses to Michael Gove's article in the Telegraph. All the most upvoted comments were the most vehemently critical of Gove's suggestions.
The same is true in the Mail, except the numbers are much bigger because there are more readers.
Is something weird going on? who knows, but the locals, real elections, may tell us more.