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Alba just get 3% in first Scottish poll since Salmond launched his new party – politicalbetting.com

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  • Teesside is very different to Tyneside so I can't really offer anything valuable.

    If @RochdalePioneers who used to live on Teesside and was very involved in local politics thinks the Cons will win then I believe him.

    But I do know that Ben Houchen (Teesside's Mayor) is very popular. He's very popular throughout the North East generally to be honest, especially within business, engineering, and industry. I wish the "North of Tyne" mayor was half as good as him.
    Frankly I am embarrassed for Paul that he has put this out. Aside from the shite production quality (I used to make him do multiple takes so that he wasn't falling over the material and had the Key Points committed to memory), he knows that the main attack is A Lie.

    Pools A&E was shut in 2011 as a result of a review done under the Labour government as part of a Labour councils plural plan to build a super-hospital at Wynyard to replace Hartlepool and North Tees in Stockton (which is a disgusting hovel of a hospital). Paul - as a former CEO of a GP's Co-op in the area - knows this fully well.

    He also knows that we can't have a full hospital in every town, especially where they are as close together as they are. Its only when you move out to the countryside that you appreciate how absurd the "my town not your town" arguments are of suburban neighbouring towns. My (younger) son was born in North Tees - an awful experience. His sister was born Out of Town at the closer to where we lived James Cook hospital in Boro. Pools to either North Tees or James Cook is a far shorter journey than it is from here in New Pitsligo down to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, my "closest" A&E now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    kle4 said:

    Tut tut. I said Republics, not Federal Subjects, 0 points for you.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia

    Edit: But well done for, I see on checking, not counting the Crimean ones in the total.
    There's really very little admin. difference between the so-called Republics and the various Oblasts, Krai, etc.!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    I drew a random constituency out of the ether. I wasn't expecting it to be thrust down my throat. There is nothing to say Labour won't lose the by election and retake it at the GE.
    LOL. Hearty debate is some sort of assault is it?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    In the past, the biggest obstacle to "Science Super-powerdom" has been our govts and Civil Servants' penny pinching and short-sightedness. There was also a factor in the past that you had to be the "right sort" of person but hopefully that particular snobbishness is largely gone.

    From John Harrison onwards, scientists and engineers have struggled in the UK. Those who have succeeded have been in spite of the system, not because of it.
    The rhetoric and the reality of our government on science:

    https://twitter.com/ScienceShared/status/1377240484708560898?s=19
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573
    Mortimer said:

    The Govt don't realise how behind the curve they are on this.

    They are relying on polling and focus groups where people signal their virtue.

    Not the cold hard reality of human behaviour.
    Sadly I rather suspect people are completely in favour of very strict rules for other people.

    It's like the tax question.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,436

    The pandemic is almost over in the UK, and you solve the problem of large-scale importation from abroad with travel restrictions. Small-scale importation (e.g. through truck drivers) isn't going to be prevented by these mechanisms and will only cause serious harm if a variant that completely escapes the vaccines gets into the country. In that (AIUI very unlikely) scenario we'll all end up back in lockdown before very long and vaccine passports will be of no useful effect in stopping that.

    A sophisticated system of vaccine passports obviously isn't going to be in place for the re-opening on April 12th, and even if it can somehow be got up and running by May 17th the virus will be heavily suppressed by that point, the Covid wards nearly empty, deaths almost down to nothing, and quite likely all the over 40s will have been vaccinated to boot. The only use it has under those circumstances is to impose divisive discrimination upon the young that will, in any event, do almost nothing to protect the middle aged or elderly.

    We don't need these mechanisms to re-open the economy safely. The unlocking timetable is cautious in the extreme as it is: any notion that it's somehow reckless, when we are waiting five full weeks between each of these little baby steps (with SAGE nervously poring over every fresh scrap of data in the meantime, just in case they discover justification for slowing down even more,) is laughable. Moreover, by the time we get to mid-May, it's going to be virtually as safe as it is ever going to get for all the most vulnerable groups: everyone over 50 bar a handful of anti-vaxxers will have long since been jabbed by that point, and the over 70s and shielders will have been done twice.

    Vaccine passports are a pointless imposition which will do nothing but impose costly burdens on businesses, in the form of the extra effort and expense needed to police their proper usage. The UK hospitality sector doesn't want vaccine passports, any more than the Spanish tourism sector wants state-enforced masking on beaches. They are a nuisance and deleterious to trade. They've nothing to do with economic renewal and everything to do with authoritarianism and the expansion of state power.
    I'm finding myself agreeing with you more and more. Which one of us needs to be worried?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,436
    MaxPB said:

    Another thing that hasn't been addressed at all is that on the one hand the government is saying they want a domestic vaccine passport system but has said nothing about insisting on vaccinations to enter the country. Once again the government is putting restrictions on our lives and doing nothing about incoming travellers. The whole thing stinks and the whole lot deserve to be sacked over the failure to close the border and now not insisting on vaccine status to enter.

    Hard to disagree with that.
  • Sadly I rather suspect people are completely in favour of very strict rules for other people.

    It's like the tax question.
    Some day soon, the tax rises are going to fall on normal people and then we'll see how popular the Tory economic plan really is
  • Anyway whatever happens I just hope our vaccination programme continues to provide us with reassurance and I doubt that these pilot schemes will cause much of a stir with the public

    Good news tonight is our 49 year old daughter receives her first vaccine on Tuesday, our 45 year old son had his first last week along with our 60 year old son in law

    There remains our youngest sons partner/fiancee (38) as the only unvaccinated adult in out family group here in the UK

    Good night everyone
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Bunch of old people here (some of whom who seem to spend their lives posting) who have very little going on in their lives, have put young people on hold for a year, now want to reward themselves with a passport to do anything whilst young people get locked inside more.

    Hope the young will come out to vote next time and make their feelings known - I doubt it will happen of course but it should.

    I genuinely don't know how to get marked improvement in youth turnout. Certainly just lowering the voting age won't do it - if 18 year olds are not voting en masse, that problem is not improved simply by letting 16 year olds vote too.

    Given overall turnout it must have been great youth turnout in the 2014 Sindy ref, but obviously those don't come along every year (yet). It's not hard to vote, so I don't buy that electronic voting would improve it significantly even were it not beset with other problems. And the youth are supposedly angry about things every election but we don't get youthquakes every time, so merely there being things they are interested in won't help either.

    Would another voting system help? Maybe, but I don't know that youth turnout is necessarily great in places with other systems and the big two here have no reason to support it (Labour would likely do a Trudeau if they won). Compulsory voting? I'm inherently against the idea.

    I saw a paper which suggested, as first step, doing voter registration at school like a rite of passage like becoming an adult, civic workshops, trips to polling stations etc, but it feels a bit like leading a horse to water.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I'm finding myself agreeing with you more and more. Which one of us needs to be worried?
    Rook is always sensible, I value their posts extremely highly.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188

    Anyway whatever happens I just hope our vaccination programme continues to provide us with reassurance and I doubt that these pilot schemes will cause much of a stir with the public

    Good news tonight is our 49 year old daughter receives her first vaccine on Tuesday, our 45 year old son had his first last week along with our 60 year old son in law

    There remains our youngest sons partner/fiancee (38) as the only unvaccinated adult in out family group here in the UK

    Good night everyone

    Indeed. Almost everywhere I have been this week, I have been the only one not vaccinated. Dorset is a good place to be right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Foxy said:

    The rhetoric and the reality of our government on science:

    https://twitter.com/ScienceShared/status/1377240484708560898?s=19
    Seems a no brainer to take a risk of spending more than you need on scientific matters. Not all gambles will pay off but some will, and it probably won't be a massive amount compared to overall spending anyway.

    But that may be a result of playing too many basic strategy games telling me the value of developing technologically. Much easier to dominate with a machine gun up against bow and arrow.
  • kle4 said:

    I genuinely don't know how to get marked improvement in youth turnout. Certainly just lowering the voting age won't do it - if 18 year olds are not voting en masse, that problem is not improved simply by letting 16 year olds vote too.

    Given overall turnout it must have been great youth turnout in the 2014 Sindy ref, but obviously those don't come along every year (yet). It's not hard to vote, so I don't buy that electronic voting would improve it significantly even were it not beset with other problems. And the youth are supposedly angry about things every election but we don't get youthquakes every time, so merely there being things they are interested in won't help either.

    Would another voting system help? Maybe, but I don't know that youth turnout is necessarily great in places with other systems and the big two here have no reason to support it (Labour would likely do a Trudeau if they won). Compulsory voting? I'm inherently against the idea.

    I saw a paper which suggested, as first step, doing voter registration at school like a rite of passage like becoming an adult, civic workshops, trips to polling stations etc, but it feels a bit like leading a horse to water.
    Young people should come out to vote, because they could actually have a huge impact and get rid of this awful Government. Alas every time they tacitly support their re-election.

    As somebody relatively young, every time I am disappointed.
  • Thanks for the kind post @MrEd, hope you are well too. Unlike so many you are always polite to those you disagree with. We could all learn a lot from you Sir. Sending best wishes.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Foxy said:

    The rhetoric and the reality of our government on science:

    https://twitter.com/ScienceShared/status/1377240484708560898?s=19
    Exactly. Science is seen as a cost, not as an investment, which is rather ironic given the pharmaceutical industries endeavours against Covid.

    Clearly, the govt learned the √FA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    There's really very little admin. difference between the so-called Republics and the various Oblasts, Krai, etc.!
    That may be so, my friend, but this wiki crawl sprang out of a comparison of Donetsk with Chechnya, hence the specificity around Republics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Mortimer said:

    Well said.

    In addition to uproar from the backbenches, am firmly expecting some significant donor pressure on the Tory party on this matter, too.
    I can’t find @Black_Rook ’s OP but want to offer her a honorary like. Spot on.

    I do hope Sir Keir ‘Royale’ Starmer has the courage of his convictions and whips Labour to oppose this, against current public opinion. My view is that - for the reasons others have articulated - people will come to regard vaxports as a nonsense in fair short order.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Mortimer said:

    I still have the 'its all a ruse to get a few more people vaccinated' crumb of comfort.

    But the other one is every sensible person that I talk to knows it is utterly unworkable.

    Just as track and trace in restaurants and caffs is.

    So it won't happen.
    I don't share your crumb of comfort.

    The government has been captured by the authoritarians who have been desperate to impose ID cards on us ever since they were removed. They now have a golden opportunity to do so under the Covid pretext and will continue unless resisted very firmly. I certainly will not use one

    Bunch of old people here (some of whom who seem to spend their lives posting) who have very little going on in their lives, have put young people on hold for a year, now want to reward themselves with a passport to do anything whilst young people get locked inside more.

    Hope the young will come out to vote next time and make their feelings known - I doubt it will happen of course but it should.

    I am very firmly on the side of the young in this debate. And this will determine my vote.

  • The interesting thing for the Pool by-election are the fringe parties and their potential impact. John Prescott is running again for Brexit/Reform as he did against Paul Williams in Stockton South in 2019. I expect his vote to be a collapse in the vote that Richard Tice got 2 years ago.

    On the other side you have the Northern Independence Party who seem to be picking up support from foaming Corbynites. Also in the mix we have the North East party (splitters!) who are represented here on PB by [redacted] who could do well from the people who vote for the various independents.

    I'm standing by this being a Tory gain. The joy of politics is that all scenarios are not just possible by do happen, so I will be quite happy to be proven wrong...
  • Keir needs to take a firm position on this and vote against.

    I can tell you that when it becomes clear for anyone under the age of 40 what these passports will mean, he is going to get some new voters.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    You don't seem to understand how modern internet news works.

    Media companies promote stories that get the most engagement, because that's what maximizes profits. It's why the Mail Online has the sidebar of shame and why Fox News is a huge success.

    If a story isn't being run with the prominence you'd like, it's because it's not generating as much advertising revenue as a story about a pig who can whistle Dixie or the latest EU vaccine debacle.

    Now, partly that will be because of outrage fatigue. People just read about one gruesome murder, and they are satiated.

    But what it isn't, is a big conspiracy by lefty publications to hide crimes by asylum seekers. Because even those lefty publications (with the exception of the BBC) are run by nasty rapacious capitalists, and if the story generated engagement it would be promoted.
    A couple of points here.

    Firstly, I mentioned two factors, not one. I would actually say the fact Lorraine Cox was not from the same background as Sarah Everard was a bigger factor in way the two stories were not reported similarly. A murder of a woman graduate living in Zones 1-2 London will attract more media attention - it should not but it does,

    Secondly, I think you are being slightly innocent about media companies and pushing stories, and it goes for both the Daily Mail and Fox news types as well as the NYT and the Guardian. Both news organisations appeal to their base and push stories that they want to promote. Conversely, they also don't push stories that they feel are against their view. It is not just an advertising decision. If that was the case, the George Floyd case would not have dominated the news. Even if you would get the audiences it is not exactly a story that advertisers want to have their adverts shown next to. Contextual advertising technology would block out a lot of the coverage as not be

    The fact is the decision to push stories is an editorial one. The more liberal media is, on the whole, more wrong on this than the likes of the Daily Mail (I will exclude Fox and the further right wing ones - they are as biased as the liberal side and commit the same sins). Look at the comments today from a leading NBC journalist that the media should abandon objectivity.

    If you want an example of that (and you know your US politics), look at the recent coverage over the IA-2 disputed result. Do you really believe that, if it was the Republicans trying that trick on the Democrats under the same circumstances, that there would not have more coverage of that on the national networks?

    Or look at what happened in Miami Beach and the "largely peaceful" rioting there and that two black men raped a white woman in a hotel room when she was passed out, stole her phone and her mobile and left her there where she died afterwards. The NYT barely mentioned it in their reporting and had it as a side issue. If it was two white men who did a similar thing to a black woman in the same circumstances, are you really saying that it would have not been pushed more aggressively by the NYT.





  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534
    Andy_JS said:

    Why didn't we hear about Eileen Dean, Tiparat Argatu, Anna Ovsyannikova, Phyllis Nelson?

    https://www.murdermap.co.uk/statistics/london-murders-2021-latest-total/
    Because they were less 'people like us' to the media types than Sarah Everard was.

    A rough rule of thumb would give for media prominence:

    London is more important than non-London.
    White is more important than non-white.
    British is more important than non British.
    Middle class is more important than working class.
    Female is more important than male.
    Young adults are more important than old.

    Now compare the people murdered in London in 2021 and see who ticks the most boxes.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Ah yes, I meant BaFin went around threatening journalists who asked awkward questions about Wirecard.

    One might note that Greensill also had a German bank regulated by... BaFin. Who failed (once again) to notice any wrongdoing.
    BaFin doesn’t have the best track record...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited April 2021
    Cyclefree said:


    I don't share your crumb of comfort.

    The government has been captured by the authoritarians who have been desperate to impose ID cards on us ever since they were removed. They now have a golden opportunity to do so under the Covid pretext and will continue unless resisted very firmly. I certainly will not use one

    I don't like to blame officials, but it does seem to be one of those ideas that just hangs around until a government of whatever stripe can be persuaded to take it up. It is no conspiracy to say that Covid had provided an opportunity for some things to happen, good and bad, which many people may have wanted to do for a while (virtual meetings for local authorities being one example), but not everything proposed as a consequence of Covid is a necessary consequence.

    Like most, I have little doubt I will follow the requirement if it becomes law, but I won't be happy about it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Foxy said:

    The rhetoric and the reality of our government on science:

    https://twitter.com/ScienceShared/status/1377240484708560898?s=19
    Yes - well it was reports like this which stimulated my header. Thought it would be nice to discuss science for a change. Alas ...... ☹️
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Thanks for the kind post @MrEd, hope you are well too. Unlike so many you are always polite to those you disagree with. We could all learn a lot from you Sir. Sending best wishes.

    Thank you very much @CorrectHorseBattery much appreciated, all good here thanks and hope to see many more posts from you.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Thanks for the kind post @MrEd, hope you are well too. Unlike so many you are always polite to those you disagree with. We could all learn a lot from you Sir. Sending best wishes.

    And you too are also very polite to those who you disagree with politically, even if they do not show the same courtesy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Young people should come out to vote, because they could actually have a huge impact and get rid of this awful Government. Alas every time they tacitly support their re-election.

    As somebody relatively young, every time I am disappointed.
    Being disappointed with the young will probably increase more as you age!

    Next thing you know, BAM, you're shaking your cane at those hoody wearers near the skatepark.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Because she was missing, there were appeals to find her.

    As there have been for Richard Okorogheye in recent days.

    As far I am aware there were plenty of appeals for Ms Cox at the time, not my fault if people like you can't remember it.

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/missing-woman-exeter-moved-plymouth-4490442
    Jesus, you are right @TSE, the Plymouth Herald - a national media giant with the same range and national reach as the BBC and The Guardian. God, how could I have overlooked that.

    Did the appeals for Lorraine Cox ever get the same coverage on the national sites?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    Mortimer said:

    Have you not heard the middle class definition of a bubble? 'Everyone you want to invite around for a cuppa in your kitchen'.
    I thought that the middle class had coffee mornings, not a humble cuppa? Or am I a generation behind the times?


    Perhaps they could aquire a Thermos and go wild tea drinking?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    kle4 said:

    That may be so, my friend, but this wiki crawl sprang out of a comparison of Donetsk with Chechnya, hence the specificity around Republics.
    Yebbut you must know that Donetsk is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine - even by Putin's Russia, at least for now!
  • dixiedean said:

    Are we seriously suggesting us oldies can go out and enjoy ourselves, waited on by a bunch of youngsters, on, or often, below, the minimum wage?
    Whilst saying that these same youngsters aren't allowed to spend their meagre income enjoying themselves in similar places on their days off?
    Really?

    Yes, that is exactly what some prats here are suggesting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Keir needs to take a firm position on this and vote against.

    I can tell you that when it becomes clear for anyone under the age of 40 what these passports will mean, he is going to get some new voters.

    Perhaps people warm to the firm, paternalistic hand of Papa Boris.

    Just watch the hand.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    If you have two rubbish options you have to choose the least worst one. Doesn't mean you like either of them.
    I’m pulling your leg!

    That said, it’s hard to see how shuttering pubs for even longer would be anything other than the worst option!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Yebbut you must know that Donetsk is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine - even by Putin's Russia, at least for now!
    The 'for now' was the point.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    You are in a much better place about all this than a few weeks ago. Happy for you.
    The last thing that really derailed me was the panic over the SA variant. Once it became apparent that (a) the Kent plague had effectively already crowded it out, (b) that (according to my limited understanding of the science, at any rate) something even worse was unlikely to emerge any time soon, and (c) deaths and hospitalisations continued to drop like a stone (and are still doing so,) I gradually began to feel more comfortable about the situation.

    Hence the fact that I'm now satisfied that we're through the last lockdown and it's not going to go to crap again, save in the scenario of total vaccine escape, which I view as possible but very unlikely. Hence also my willingness to put up with the cautious unlocking intervals that the non-psychotic wing of the scientific establishment has asked for, but not for lengthy foot-dragging and/or the excessive imposition of counter-measures. The pandemic experience has brought about lasting change and I'm not by any means averse to all of those changes. What I don't accept is the need either for Draconian impositions that result in intrusive, Chinese-style state surveillance, or years of widespread social restrictions and mask wearing edicts that serve no purpose but to grind us all down.

    We've all been living in one giant open prison for the last year - and the sacrifices have only been worth it because of the scale of the threat we faced, and the consequences of not deploying countermeasures. Once the threat is crushed the prison walls must be demolished. No excuses.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    On topic, the polling discussed above certainly confirms that direct support for Alba in Scotland is about three times that of local membership of Hell's Angels & other outlaw motorcycle gangs (1%ers).

    Or in other words, the Salmond extended family + our Malcolm + folks to who Sturgeon was exceptionally and personally "nippy".

    HOWEVER, methinks that the poll does NOT get to the heart of the matter in this instance.

    Which appears to be, how many Scots are likely to give Alba their LIST vote, after having voted for an SNPer with their constituency vote?

    Reckon that THAT number plus the hard-core Albanians amounts to more than 3%. BUT how much more?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,167
    edited April 2021
    One of the sad things about the vaccine ID cards proposal is that I have been personally a bit extra cautious over the last year. I didn't take advantage of the loosening of restrictions last summer to go back to hotels and restaurants. We considered it, and we decided that the theatre of wearing a mask and disinfecting our hands was going to introduce a sense of peril that wouldn't make the experience enjoyable.

    So I have fallen completely out of the habit of going anywhere, which will make it a lot easier to not start again if I have to show a stupid ID card to do so. That doesn't mean I'll be locked away at home on my own. I'd still be able to visit friends and family.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534

    I thought that the middle class had coffee mornings, not a humble cuppa? Or am I a generation behind the times?


    Perhaps they could aquire a Thermos and go wild tea drinking?

    Weren't coffee mornings something people who aspired to be middle class did in 1970s sitcoms ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Heads up: There’s a piece on the Israel unlockdown coming up very shortly on Newsnight.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited April 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Are we seriously suggesting us oldies can go out and enjoy ourselves, waited on by a bunch of youngsters, on, or often, below, the minimum wage?
    Whilst saying that these same youngsters aren't allowed to spend their meagre income enjoying themselves in similar places on their days off?
    Really?

    I wonder why the young think that boomers are self-centred c*nts.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    kle4 said:

    Perhaps people warm to the firm, paternalistic hand of Papa Boris.

    Just watch the hand.
    I think that this is the most corrupt and incompetent govt I can remember.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,728
    If as a govt your every policy to restrict liberty (for good reason or bad) has been rewarded by an increase in your polling lead why on earth would you not continue with illiberal policies?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,953
    Worried about the Donbass singing "Take me Home"?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited April 2021
    Floater said:
    I think it's likely true cases are miles higher than this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    "The public aren’t fools. They know that there is clear evidence of racism amongst certain sections of the press and degrees of institutionalised racism and unconscious bias across the industry."

    Hmm. Surely that poll shows that 51% of the public are fools, since they did not agree with the statement that the press has a problem with racism. "The public' do not know there is clear evidence, a plurality of them know it.

    That said I'd have answered slightly agree to the question, though I don't know how the commentator presumed stuff about unconscious bias when that wasn't part of the question unless there's info they are not quoting.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534

    The last thing that really derailed me was the panic over the SA variant. Once it became apparent that (a) the Kent plague had effectively already crowded it out, (b) that (according to my limited understanding of the science, at any rate) something even worse was unlikely to emerge any time soon, and (c) deaths and hospitalisations continued to drop like a stone (and are still doing so,) I gradually began to feel more comfortable about the situation.

    Hence the fact that I'm now satisfied that we're through the last lockdown and it's not going to go to crap again, save in the scenario of total vaccine escape, which I view as possible but very unlikely. Hence also my willingness to put up with the cautious unlocking intervals that the non-psychotic wing of the scientific establishment has asked for, but not for lengthy foot-dragging and/or the excessive imposition of counter-measures. The pandemic experience has brought about lasting change and I'm not by any means averse to all of those changes. What I don't accept is the need either for Draconian impositions that result in intrusive, Chinese-style state surveillance, or years of widespread social restrictions and mask wearing edicts that serve no purpose but to grind us all down.

    We've all been living in one giant open prison for the last year - and the sacrifices have only been worth it because of the scale of the threat we faced, and the consequences of not deploying countermeasures. Once the threat is crushed the prison walls must be demolished. No excuses.
    I know three people in their 40s who have been vaccinated in the last week.

    So you might be getting yours sooner than you expected.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Charles said:

    BaFin doesn’t have the best track record...
    Depends on perspective, they have an excellent track record for the businesses under their oversight :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346

    Any election in which Labour loses Hartlepool is indeed going to be very one-dimensional for them - mainly because they'll be squashed as flat as a pancake...
    It's a by election in a pandemic. It may be significant in the long term, it may be insignificant.

    As a snapshot it is important because it tells us where we are with the blue/red wall. For what it's worth I think the red wall remains solidly behind Johnson (not necessarily the Conservatives) for the moment at least.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Fair choice, though a law they passed in 1998 may not really speak to what a party is like now. The big two already get too much of a pass for past accomplishments as it is.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    The last thing that really derailed me was the panic over the SA variant. Once it became apparent that (a) the Kent plague had effectively already crowded it out, (b) that (according to my limited understanding of the science, at any rate) something even worse was unlikely to emerge any time soon, and (c) deaths and hospitalisations continued to drop like a stone (and are still doing so,) I gradually began to feel more comfortable about the situation.

    Hence the fact that I'm now satisfied that we're through the last lockdown and it's not going to go to crap again, save in the scenario of total vaccine escape, which I view as possible but very unlikely. Hence also my willingness to put up with the cautious unlocking intervals that the non-psychotic wing of the scientific establishment has asked for, but not for lengthy foot-dragging and/or the excessive imposition of counter-measures. The pandemic experience has brought about lasting change and I'm not by any means averse to all of those changes. What I don't accept is the need either for Draconian impositions that result in intrusive, Chinese-style state surveillance, or years of widespread social restrictions and mask wearing edicts that serve no purpose but to grind us all down.

    We've all been living in one giant open prison for the last year - and the sacrifices have only been worth it because of the scale of the threat we faced, and the consequences of not deploying countermeasures. Once the threat is crushed the prison walls must be demolished. No excuses.
    Masks are a weird thing, aren’t they? On my walk to the shops earlier to buy steak and wine, I saw three or four people walking alone, with nobody anywhere near them, wearing masks. I’ve done it myself several times, albeit briefly, when I’ve plain forgotten to take my mask off. But I wondered, did all these people forget? Or were they wearing a mask deliberately, alone, outdoors in the freshening breeze? Dunno.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I can’t find @Black_Rook ’s OP but want to offer her a honorary like. Spot on.

    I do hope Sir Keir ‘Royale’ Starmer has the courage of his convictions and whips Labour to oppose this, against current public opinion. My view is that - for the reasons others have articulated - people will come to regard vaxports as a nonsense in fair short order.

    Thanks! Point of order though - I'm a bloke :smile:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    People aren't interested in what a version of Labour currently out of favour within Labour did a long time ago.

    Give us a compelling reason now - and no, telling everyone they are racist isn't going to cut it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,836

    I understand the cry for freedom but a sensible opening of the economy benefits everyone and it is not going to be for longer than necessary, though I do think vaccine passports will become compulsory for all foreign travel possibly for years
    "Not going to be for longer than necessary"?

    I'm sorry, I just don't believe it.

    As has been discussed at length, the 'necessary' length of time is zero days. It's already unnecessary.

    And government's track record of 'temporary' measures - particularly with regard to the last twelve months - has been discouraging to say the least.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    I know three people in their 40s who have been vaccinated in the last week.

    So you might be getting yours sooner than you expected.
    Don't forget the switch to focus on second doses in April. Fair number of first doses happening at present, but it will still likely be down on recent months.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534
    Pulpstar said:

    I think it's likely true cases are miles higher than this.
    If you assume a 1% death rate that would suggest that cases are four times as high as reported.

    Given the delay between infection and death five or six times higher would be more likely.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I think that this is the most corrupt and incompetent govt I can remember.
    Then you have a very short or selective memory
  • Floater said:

    People aren't interested in what a version of Labour currently out of favour within Labour did a long time ago.

    Give us a compelling reason now - and no, telling everyone they are racist isn't going to cut it.
    I didn't say anyone was racist, don't put words in my mouth please
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Chameleon said:

    Depends on perspective, they have an excellent track record for the businesses under their oversight :)
    Don't you mean "the businesses over their undersight"?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Thanks! Point of order though - I'm a bloke :smile:
    Oh sorry! I don’t know why I thought that. Apologies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    I think that this is the most corrupt and incompetent govt I can remember.
    Hopefully in time they can address at least one of those.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Masks are a weird thing, aren’t they? On my walk to the shops earlier to buy steak and wine, I saw three or four people walking alone, with nobody anywhere near them, wearing masks. I’ve done it myself several times, albeit briefly, when I’ve plain forgotten to take my mask off. But I wondered, did all these people forget? Or were they wearing a mask deliberately, alone, outdoors in the freshening breeze? Dunno.
    Hard to say in these cases. I don't generally see people out in them, though I did leave mine on when I was walking home from shopping this afternoon - realised I'd left it about a third of the way back and then couldn't be bothered.

    More generally, I'm content to put up with the things as we come out of the emergency, and I can envisage limited circumstances in which they might be retained or come back (am thinking here about public transport journeys during the Winter illness season,) but the widespread, mandatory deployment of the things should be stopped soon. The performance where one has to arrive at a pub or restaurant in one, taking it off to sit down at the table but having to use it again if you need to get up to go to the flipping loo, is particularly irksome and ridiculous.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    MrEd said:

    That is true for this particular discussion but there is the wider question of how long the British would have stayed on in India if WW2 had not broken out. Commitment to India was strong amongst a lot of elements and there was also the realisation of how important Indian Army firepower would be in a military conflict. It is hard to imagine the UK Government would have let India follow the path of the Irish Free State.
    Dominion Status by 1947, surely?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,534
    kle4 said:

    Don't forget the switch to focus on second doses in April. Fair number of first doses happening at present, but it will still likely be down on recent months.
    But there are a few good signs.

    First doses this week have been higher than expected.

    Northern Ireland are officially now vaccinating the 45-49 group.

    Reports from Scotland about Moderna arriving next week.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    I can’t find @Black_Rook ’s OP but want to offer her a honorary like. Spot on.

    I do hope Sir Keir ‘Royale’ Starmer has the courage of his convictions and whips Labour to oppose this, against current public opinion. My view is that - for the reasons others have articulated - people will come to regard vaxports as a nonsense in fair short order.
    His conviction was he didn’t know! I was just going to ask if anyone wanted to price up, just for fun, whether Labour would

    Back
    Oppose
    Or
    Abstain

    When this is put to the vote
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Charles said:

    BaFin doesn’t have the best track record...
    It is by some margin the worst financial regulator in Europe.
    dixiedean said:

    Are we seriously suggesting us oldies can go out and enjoy ourselves, waited on by a bunch of youngsters, on, or often, below, the minimum wage?
    Whilst saying that these same youngsters aren't allowed to spend their meagre income enjoying themselves in similar places on their days off?
    Really?

    Yes.I have been making this point ad nauseam on here for days. Then the government says "oh no they won't be brought in until everyone's been vaccinated". At which point there is no point to them.

    That's why it's obvious to me that Covid is simply being used as a pretext for ID cards and a Chinese-style social credit system.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Oh sorry! I don’t know why I thought that. Apologies.
    Probably because I mention my husband at regular intervals, which would result in inevitable assumptions. The rainbow flag brigades are not *that* numerous (though it'll be interesting to see what the census returns have to say about that.)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    TOPPING said:

    If as a govt your every policy to restrict liberty (for good reason or bad) has been rewarded by an increase in your polling lead why on earth would you not continue with illiberal policies?

    Letting people with vaccine passports into pubs is probably more liberal than refusing to allow pubs to open at all!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cookie said:

    "Not going to be for longer than necessary"?

    I'm sorry, I just don't believe it.

    As has been discussed at length, the 'necessary' length of time is zero days. It's already unnecessary.

    And government's track record of 'temporary' measures - particularly with regard to the last twelve months - has been discouraging to say the least.
    Indeed. I have said several times before, it’s a truly bizarre world where I see Steve Baker on the telly of a Sunday morning and find myself nodding in agreement. One cannot and should not assume that the government will willingly relinquish the powers it has gained. History teaches us that powerful is rarely if ever relinquished voluntarily.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Floater said:

    Then you have a very short or selective memory
    Perhaps you would like to offer up examples of more corrupt or incompetent govts?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    isam said:

    His conviction was he didn’t know! I was just going to ask if anyone wanted to price up, just for fun, whether Labour would

    Back
    Oppose
    Or
    Abstain

    When this is put to the vote
    They'll make some feeble criticisms of it then vote in such a way that the measures pass.

    And thus our freedoms die .....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    isam said:

    His conviction was he didn’t know! I was just going to ask if anyone wanted to price up, just for fun, whether Labour would

    Back
    Oppose
    Or
    Abstain

    When this is put to the vote
    Well you are right in your implication, it is hard to say (and I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on it). I just hope he stands up against it!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,301

    The last thing that really derailed me was the panic over the SA variant. Once it became apparent that (a) the Kent plague had effectively already crowded it out, (b) that (according to my limited understanding of the science, at any rate) something even worse was unlikely to emerge any time soon, and (c) deaths and hospitalisations continued to drop like a stone (and are still doing so,) I gradually began to feel more comfortable about the situation.

    Hence the fact that I'm now satisfied that we're through the last lockdown and it's not going to go to crap again, save in the scenario of total vaccine escape, which I view as possible but very unlikely. Hence also my willingness to put up with the cautious unlocking intervals that the non-psychotic wing of the scientific establishment has asked for, but not for lengthy foot-dragging and/or the excessive imposition of counter-measures. The pandemic experience has brought about lasting change and I'm not by any means averse to all of those changes. What I don't accept is the need either for Draconian impositions that result in intrusive, Chinese-style state surveillance, or years of widespread social restrictions and mask wearing edicts that serve no purpose but to grind us all down.

    We've all been living in one giant open prison for the last year - and the sacrifices have only been worth it because of the scale of the threat we faced, and the consequences of not deploying countermeasures. Once the threat is crushed the prison walls must be demolished. No excuses.
    Originally we were told the lockdown was only necessary to prevent NHS beds being oversubscribed (if that is the right word to use). How long has it been since that has been a problem in hospitals?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,301

    Anyway whatever happens I just hope our vaccination programme continues to provide us with reassurance and I doubt that these pilot schemes will cause much of a stir with the public

    Good news tonight is our 49 year old daughter receives her first vaccine on Tuesday, our 45 year old son had his first last week along with our 60 year old son in law

    There remains our youngest sons partner/fiancee (38) as the only unvaccinated adult in out family group here in the UK

    Good night everyone

    Excellent news.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    He should count himself lucky he wasn't hanged, amiright @HYUFD ?
    Quite a few Tories - including Terry Dicks MP - wished to see Nelson Mandela suffer the same fate.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,728
    isam said:

    Letting people with vaccine passports into pubs is probably more liberal than refusing to allow pubs to open at all!
    There's certainly no arguing with that!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Cyclefree said:

    It is by some margin the worst financial regulator in Europe.

    Take that, er, Maltese Financial Services Authority.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Dominion Status by 1947, surely?
    It is the whole world of counter-factuals but, even if there had been Dominion status by 1947 in a "WW2 didn't happen world", India would have been too important to the UK to let it decide to do it's own thing like Ireland. My guess is there would have been some serious weighting for the Indian Princely States with no partition which would have meant likely continual mistrust between Nehru and Jinnah.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,836

    One of the sad things about the vaccine ID cards proposal is that I have been personally a bit extra cautious over the last year. I didn't take advantage of the loosening of restrictions last summer to go back to hotels and restaurants. We considered it, and we decided that the theatre of wearing a mask and disinfecting our hands was going to introduce a sense of peril that wouldn't make the experience enjoyable.

    So I have fallen completely out of the habit of going anywhere, which will make it a lot easier to not start again if I have to show a stupid ID card to do so. That doesn't mean I'll be locked away at home on my own. I'd still be able to visit friends and family.

    Quite agree.
    Masks, and hand sanitiser, and vaccine passports, and yellow tape on the floor, and the constant FUCKING hectoring seems to be generally viewed as cost free. It isn't - it makes the whole process of doing anything that much less enjoyable, to the point where - with the exception of buying food to stay alive - nothing is worth doing any more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    By the by, France's covid stats are weird. They've basically been between 300-400 deaths a day since early December as a 7 day average apparently. It's presently at the low end of that, but the case rate suggests that will change, but it is still oddly flat (with slight trend down) for a long time.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited April 2021
    TOPPING said:

    There's certainly no arguing with that!
    Ha!

    But really, Boris has been criticised quite heavily for opening up too soon a couple of times, he might be being too cautious now on the back of that. One thing I don’t believe for a minute is that Sir Keir is against vaccine passports - he’s just seen his poor his ratings are, how few people have heard of him, so is trying to get some headlines. Fair play I suppose
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,836

    Probably because I mention my husband at regular intervals, which would result in inevitable assumptions. The rainbow flag brigades are not *that* numerous (though it'll be interesting to see what the census returns have to say about that.)
    Ha - I left that question blank - as 'none of your fucking business' wasn't presented as an option.

    I do apologies, I'm very sweary today. Feeling properly riled.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    Really?

    You think holding Hartlepool would be a resounding success?
    It was a Tory seat in 1959 .
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Probably because I mention my husband at regular intervals, which would result in inevitable assumptions. The rainbow flag brigades are not *that* numerous (though it'll be interesting to see what the census returns have to say about that.)
    Ah! Yes, sorry again, that’s probably it!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Cookie said:

    Quite agree.
    Masks, and hand sanitiser, and vaccine passports, and yellow tape on the floor, and the constant FUCKING hectoring seems to be generally viewed as cost free. It isn't - it makes the whole process of doing anything that much less enjoyable, to the point where - with the exception of buying food to stay alive - nothing is worth doing any more.
    I have no idea if it is national, but our local Tesco's has a Covid announcement that puts you off going in there to shop. It sounds like they hired an Undertaker or Private Fraser from Dad'a Army to read it out. Paraphrasing... "There is a deadly virus. You could be carrying it. You could be passing it on to other shoppers or taking it home to your family. It kills....." The only good thing is it refrained from finishing with either "... you murderer!!!!" or some other guilt-tripping variation.

    These days I shop at Sainsburys where they lack that announcement
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,864
    kle4 said:

    By the by, France's covid stats are weird. They've basically been between 300-400 deaths a day since early December as a 7 day average apparently. It's presently at the low end of that, but the case rate suggests that will change, but it is still oddly flat (with slight trend down) for a long time.

    I think they've been sending some patients abroad, so perhaps there are deaths that haven't been factored into their stats yet?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    kle4 said:

    By the by, France's covid stats are weird. They've basically been between 300-400 deaths a day since early December as a 7 day average apparently. It's presently at the low end of that, but the case rate suggests that will change, but it is still oddly flat (with slight trend down) for a long time.

    vaccines are more effacious on death than anything else
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,953
    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kle4 said:

    Take that, er, Maltese Financial Services Authority.
    TOPPING said:

    There's certainly no arguing with that!
    Indeed there is no arguing with that - in the sense that nobody is arguing that.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 258
    Cyclefree said:


    That's why it's obvious to me that Covid is simply being used as a pretext for ID cards and a Chinese-style social credit system.

    Wow, says a lot that Cyclefree is saying this stuff. Not exactly your bog standard message board conspiracy theorist loon.

    I do find myself thinking along similar lines, although the fact that I'm not sure the UK government is competent enough to implement this is comforting.

    Have mentioned before on here, but I find the fact that there's a reasonable chance we're in this bloody mess is due to a breach of bio-security from a lab carrying out secret research into viruses on behalf the PLA so little remarked upon surprising (ok, I'm aware I may be sounding like the aforementioned conspiracy loon) .
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    justin124 said:

    It was a Tory seat in 1959 .
    🤣🤣🤣
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    dixiedean said:

    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!

    Their line on the vaccine tracker chart is a doozy

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,836
    edited April 2021
    File under "Tory commentator annoyed with Labour for supportoing Conservative party"
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/01/keir-starmer-acting-like-tory-superfan-robbing-britain-real/
    This isn't a criticism of Fraser Nelson. I'm in the same boat. I might even give the Lib Dems a look if they stop banging on about Europe and transsexuals.
This discussion has been closed.