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Alba just get 3% in first Scottish poll since Salmond launched his new party – politicalbetting.com

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  • I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Well what they say doesn't matter, what matters is how they vote. If the government were to say it is a done deal no matter what MPs were to vote I'd be even more concerned than I already was.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822

    Cookie said:

    One of the sad things about the vaccine ID cards proposal is that I have been personally a bit extra cautious over the last year. I didn't take advantage of the loosening of restrictions last summer to go back to hotels and restaurants. We considered it, and we decided that the theatre of wearing a mask and disinfecting our hands was going to introduce a sense of peril that wouldn't make the experience enjoyable.

    So I have fallen completely out of the habit of going anywhere, which will make it a lot easier to not start again if I have to show a stupid ID card to do so. That doesn't mean I'll be locked away at home on my own. I'd still be able to visit friends and family.

    Quite agree.
    Masks, and hand sanitiser, and vaccine passports, and yellow tape on the floor, and the constant FUCKING hectoring seems to be generally viewed as cost free. It isn't - it makes the whole process of doing anything that much less enjoyable, to the point where - with the exception of buying food to stay alive - nothing is worth doing any more.
    I have no idea if it is national, but our local Tesco's has a Covid announcement that puts you off going in there to shop. It sounds like they hired an Undertaker or Private Fraser from Dad'a Army to read it out. Paraphrasing... "There is a deadly virus. You could be carrying it. You could be passing it on to other shoppers or taking it home to your family. It kills....." The only good thing is it refrained from finishing with either "... you murderer!!!!" or some other guilt-tripping variation.

    These days I shop at Sainsburys where they lack that announcement
    Are you still in Trafford Bev?
    Certainly the Tesco in Sale is doing something similar. More annoying still, it now intersperses these cheery harangues with anodyne Radio 2 style pop music. Does shopping music work? I thought that sort of thing passed out of fashion in the early 80s. Surely this is @Roger 's area of expertise?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!

    Their line on the vaccine tracker chart is a doozy

    I worry about the shape of the Israel line. It suggests that RCS's optimism that those hesitant about taking the vaccine will be encouraged by others doing so, does not seem to be taking effect. I do wonder whether some nearby to the UK countries will see fewer people taking the vaccine.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited April 2021

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!

    Their line on the vaccine tracker chart is a doozy

    I worry about the shape of the Israel line. It suggests that RCS's optimism that those hesitant about taking the vaccine will be encouraged by others doing so, does not seem to be taking effect. I do wonder whether some nearby to the UK countries will see fewer people taking the vaccine.
    Hasn't that already been explained by Israel having an above-average under 18 population as well as 10% odd ultra-orthodox?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited April 2021
    Apropos of nothing, I just read a rather meh book (New Pompeii), simply because the blurb genuinely made me do a double take, so I feel obliged to pass it on. Check this out:

    In the race to control renewable power, an energy giant stumbles on a controversial technology: the ability to transport matter from the deep past. Their biggest secret is New Pompeii, a replica city filled with Romans, pulled through time just before the volcanic eruption.

    Nick Houghton doesn't know why he's been chosen to be the company's historical advisor. He's just excited to be there. Until he starts to wonder what happened to his predecessor. Until he realizes that the company has more secrets than even the conspiracy theorists suspect


    Hmm, a mysterious company that has invented time travel and, for some reason, used it to transport ancient Romans to the present, has shady secrets you say? What an unexpected occurence!

    Pleasant dreams of a Covid free future - it may not be as free in other ways as we'd like.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!

    Their line on the vaccine tracker chart is a doozy

    I worry about the shape of the Israel line. It suggests that RCS's optimism that those hesitant about taking the vaccine will be encouraged by others doing so, does not seem to be taking effect. I do wonder whether some nearby to the UK countries will see fewer people taking the vaccine.
    Hasn't that already been explained by Israel having an above-average under 18 population as well as 10% odd ultra-orthodox?
    I missed that. Just checked the demographics of Israel on wikipedia and you are right, that does explain it. Thanks!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!

    Their line on the vaccine tracker chart is a doozy

    A King.
    A PM who is a doctor and operates on folk to relax.
    And a bunch of living Buddhas re-inforcing the get vaccinated message.
    That is some efficient system they've got.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    One of the sad things about the vaccine ID cards proposal is that I have been personally a bit extra cautious over the last year. I didn't take advantage of the loosening of restrictions last summer to go back to hotels and restaurants. We considered it, and we decided that the theatre of wearing a mask and disinfecting our hands was going to introduce a sense of peril that wouldn't make the experience enjoyable.

    So I have fallen completely out of the habit of going anywhere, which will make it a lot easier to not start again if I have to show a stupid ID card to do so. That doesn't mean I'll be locked away at home on my own. I'd still be able to visit friends and family.

    Quite agree.
    Masks, and hand sanitiser, and vaccine passports, and yellow tape on the floor, and the constant FUCKING hectoring seems to be generally viewed as cost free. It isn't - it makes the whole process of doing anything that much less enjoyable, to the point where - with the exception of buying food to stay alive - nothing is worth doing any more.
    I have no idea if it is national, but our local Tesco's has a Covid announcement that puts you off going in there to shop. It sounds like they hired an Undertaker or Private Fraser from Dad'a Army to read it out. Paraphrasing... "There is a deadly virus. You could be carrying it. You could be passing it on to other shoppers or taking it home to your family. It kills....." The only good thing is it refrained from finishing with either "... you murderer!!!!" or some other guilt-tripping variation.

    These days I shop at Sainsburys where they lack that announcement
    Are you still in Trafford Bev?
    Certainly the Tesco in Sale is doing something similar. More annoying still, it now intersperses these cheery harangues with anodyne Radio 2 style pop music. Does shopping music work? I thought that sort of thing passed out of fashion in the early 80s. Surely this is @Roger 's area of expertise?
    No, we moved out a few years ago when the kids flew the nest and bought an apartment instead. At the minute I am with my mother helping her through the Plague as she has no one else to help and she is now very frail.

    The Sale Tesco was always more convenient than the Altrincham one especially after they introduced that stupid parking system for the car park. At least the Alty Tescos was free...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!

    Their line on the vaccine tracker chart is a doozy

    I worry about the shape of the Israel line. It suggests that RCS's optimism that those hesitant about taking the vaccine will be encouraged by others doing so, does not seem to be taking effect. I do wonder whether some nearby to the UK countries will see fewer people taking the vaccine.
    That's a "percent of population", not "percent of adults" chart. Israel has a lot of kids. It also has some groups that aren't part of the reality based community.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    edited April 2021
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    "Doreen Lawrence says No 10 report gives 'racists the green light'
    Exclusive: Mother of murdered teenager says Sewell report has pushed fight against racism back 20 years or more"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/doreen-lawrence-says-no-10-report-gives-racists-the-green-light
  • I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    I would be *delighted* if Paul won the by-election. He's a really lovely bloke. But my reading of it is that he is a tone-deaf candidate for a town that needed a completely different kind of candidate.

    That SKS personally imposed him as candidate suggests that he has plans for Dr Paul. Expect him to replace Jonathan Ashworth as Shadow Health Secretary should he win the seat.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    anecdote time but was online chatting to friends last night on one of our regular get togethers and the subject of vaxports came up and all but one#(out of 6) were of the view that if they came in then they would just continue meeting up for a drink round peoples houses like they do currently.

    Most hospitality doesn't make a huge profit doesn't take a lot of people to say meh can't be arsed if they pull that stuff to pull those profits down to the point of non viability
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Labour hold in Hartlepool

    Just to highlight how weak that is.

    Hartlepool is the 44th target seat for the Tories at the next election.

    So if they manage to hold it, they're saying, 'ok, we'll still be above 150 seats'.

    What a demise for a once great party.
    What a bizarre response, wasn't aware there were any other by-elections going on?
    Really?

    You think holding Hartlepool would be a resounding success?
    It was a Tory seat in 1959 .
    So?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    Also out of curiousity checked the ipsos mori poll to see how it was asked

    quote
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    Note the bit in bold classic steering as we know that lockdown isn't going to be sped up.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The Labour vote there is actually higher than in 2017 - 2008 - and 2004.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Labour hold in Hartlepool

    Just to highlight how weak that is.

    Hartlepool is the 44th target seat for the Tories at the next election.

    So if they manage to hold it, they're saying, 'ok, we'll still be above 150 seats'.

    What a demise for a once great party.
    What a bizarre response, wasn't aware there were any other by-elections going on?
    Really?

    You think holding Hartlepool would be a resounding success?
    It was a Tory seat in 1959 .
    So?
    It is not a seat which is beyond their reach.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Labour hold in Hartlepool

    Just to highlight how weak that is.

    Hartlepool is the 44th target seat for the Tories at the next election.

    So if they manage to hold it, they're saying, 'ok, we'll still be above 150 seats'.

    What a demise for a once great party.
    What a bizarre response, wasn't aware there were any other by-elections going on?
    Really?

    You think holding Hartlepool would be a resounding success?
    It was a Tory seat in 1959 .
    So?
    It is not a seat which is beyond their reach.
    How many seats have been continuously held by any party since WWII?

    My guess is that would be a small number, meaning that the distinction is of limited use.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    edited April 2021
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Labour hold in Hartlepool

    Just to highlight how weak that is.

    Hartlepool is the 44th target seat for the Tories at the next election.

    So if they manage to hold it, they're saying, 'ok, we'll still be above 150 seats'.

    What a demise for a once great party.
    What a bizarre response, wasn't aware there were any other by-elections going on?
    Really?

    You think holding Hartlepool would be a resounding success?
    It was a Tory seat in 1959 .
    So?
    It is not a seat which is beyond their reach.
    So it having once been a seat 60 years ago means that them winning it now means nothing? That might be an interesting observation had there been absolutely no shift in voting patterns or demographics in the interim.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    For example, the Tories won Streatham even more recently than Hartlepool, at the 1987 GE, but at GE2019 they came third on 16% of the vote. I rather think that Streatham is currently beyond the Tories reach, but they won it 28 years more recently than Hartlepool. I will hazard a guess that other factors are of greater importance than whether the seat changed hands in the 50s.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    edited April 2021

    For example, the Tories won Streatham even more recently than Hartlepool, at the 1987 GE, but at GE2019 they came third on 16% of the vote. I rather think that Streatham is currently beyond the Tories reach, but they won it 28 years more recently than Hartlepool. I will hazard a guess that other factors are of greater importance than whether the seat changed hands in the 50s.

    Edmonton and Walthamstow were Tory in 1987 and/or 1992, something which is difficult to believe.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm more interested in the sweet spot when(if) they cost Sindy parties any seats.

    But I'd settle for 'no additional' sindy msps on top of what already looked likely.

    If they really do get nothing do they go the way of change UK, even the MPs?
    The SNP has such a surfeit of constituency MPs, that if they fish only in that pool, I can't see them reducing the number of Sindy MPs at all.

    However, if they take votes from the Greens, such that they both dip below 6-7% in a given region, then it would have an impact.
    Seems unlikely they both could be so reduced, shame.
    Other models will doubtless follow, posted without comment



  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Turnout for Mayoral elections is normally lower than for Parliamentary By Elections and I would expect more voters to be focussed on the latter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56198552
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    For example, the Tories won Streatham even more recently than Hartlepool, at the 1987 GE, but at GE2019 they came third on 16% of the vote. I rather think that Streatham is currently beyond the Tories reach, but they won it 28 years more recently than Hartlepool. I will hazard a guess that other factors are of greater importance than whether the seat changed hands in the 50s.

    The boundaries in Streatham have changed a fair bit over the years - though demographic change has been the main driver there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Labour hold in Hartlepool

    Just to highlight how weak that is.

    Hartlepool is the 44th target seat for the Tories at the next election.

    So if they manage to hold it, they're saying, 'ok, we'll still be above 150 seats'.

    What a demise for a once great party.
    What a bizarre response, wasn't aware there were any other by-elections going on?
    Really?

    You think holding Hartlepool would be a resounding success?
    It was a Tory seat in 1959 .
    So?
    It is not a seat which is beyond their reach.
    How many seats have been continuously held by any party since WWII?

    My guess is that would be a small number, meaning that the distinction is of limited use.
    Hexham is one.
    Wigan is another.
    Pretty much the 2 I know well.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    edited April 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited April 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    If it's app based then there needs to be a paper alternative. Much like the paper alternative to the Track and Trace App in pubs, where you jotted down contact details (apparently Boris Johnson was often in the pub at the same time as me last Autumn). The Govt aren't competent enough to make the paper alternative as resistant to counterfeiting as DLs (which are still trivial to fake). Pubs have no incentive to be strict about enforcement. End result, everyone will just use their parent's login to the app/photocopy vaccine received cards/forged negative test result letters.

    The only people who are clueless enough to be caught out by it are those stupid enough to be in favour of it - much like May's post office porn license.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Chameleon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    If it's app based then there needs to be a paper alternative. Much like the paper alternative to the Track and Trace App in pubs, where you jotted down contact details (apparently Boris Johnson was often in the pub at the same time as me last Autumn). The Govt aren't competent enough to make the paper alternative as resistant to counterfeiting as DLs (which are still trivial to fake). Pubs have no incentive to be strict about enforcement. End result, everyone will just use their parent's login to the app/photocopy vaccine received cards/forged negative test result letters.

    The only people who are stupid enough to be caught out by it are those stupid enough to be in favour of it - much like May's post office porn license.
    The telegraph report suggests a paper version would be sufficient, at least based on their wording of covid certificate.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207
    For the record, I think vaccine passports (except for international travel) are a stupid idea, that curtail civil liberties without any appreciable benefit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    "Tories will lose unless they build more homes
    The party’s problem in London could spread across England if the property ladder remains out of reach to swing voters
    James Forsyth"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-will-lose-unless-they-build-more-homes-9hznqmllj
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I think vaccine passports (except for international travel) are a stupid idea, that curtail civil liberties without any appreciable benefit.

    Precisely they are a stalking horse for a national id card linked to a database. TBH I suspect its the civil service that wants it more than politicians as it keeps recurring no matter the colour of government. Once they have that then its a step down the slope that leads eventually the the social credit score that china has
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    I'm slightly amazed that the Tories are this stupid. I've voted Tory at the last two elections, I'm currently at a point where I'm actually thinking about voting for the lib dems, on the basis that they aren't quite as iliberal, even if they are far too keen on Europe.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Precisely they have to expend man power, that takes a bit more doing than checking an entry in a database.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,932
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Precisely they have to expend man power, that takes a bit more doing than checking an entry in a database.
    Both require effort, obviously one more than the other. My point is why are they interested in when you go to the pub? Perhaps instead they are interested in a system where you can show you have a negative test result or a vaccine.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Precisely they have to expend man power, that takes a bit more doing than checking an entry in a database.
    Both require effort, obviously one more than the other. My point is why are they interested in when you go to the pub? Perhaps instead they are interested in a system where you can show you have a negative test result or a vaccine.
    And when they use your frequency of pub visits to for example ration access to certain treatments on the grounds you did it yourself? Don't forget its not only reasonable access where needed either, access will be granted to all sorts of wierd and wonderful departments and quangos. Remember when they claimed RIPA laws would only be used to investigate serious crime and were then used by local councils to check up on school catchment areas, flytipping and dog mess.

    A person that trusts a government is a fool. It is our duty to restrict government in every way we can
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Let's pretend there were no civil liberties consequences.

    What is the problem that vaccine passports are the solution to?
    Precisely, once we are fully vaccinated we have to reopen even if it doesn't reduce R enough. Vaccines were our only plan to stop them and we can't afford being locked down any longer after june regardless. There is no plan B we will just have to learn to live with it
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Precisely they have to expend man power, that takes a bit more doing than checking an entry in a database.
    Both require effort, obviously one more than the other. My point is why are they interested in when you go to the pub? Perhaps instead they are interested in a system where you can show you have a negative test result or a vaccine.
    One requires writing something like

    Select barName from Bars where CitizenID = X and VisitDate > 31/3/2021

    To get all bars I have visited since the end of march to the current date

    The other one involves having a team of several people following me around every day to find out if I goto a bar and note it down

    A huge disparity in effort. One takes a couple of minutes, the other takes a lot of manpower
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Precisely they have to expend man power, that takes a bit more doing than checking an entry in a database.
    Both require effort, obviously one more than the other. My point is why are they interested in when you go to the pub? Perhaps instead they are interested in a system where you can show you have a negative test result or a vaccine.
    And when they use your frequency of pub visits to for example ration access to certain treatments on the grounds you did it yourself? Don't forget its not only reasonable access where needed either, access will be granted to all sorts of wierd and wonderful departments and quangos. Remember when they claimed RIPA laws would only be used to investigate serious crime and were then used by local councils to check up on school catchment areas, flytipping and dog mess.

    A person that trusts a government is a fool. It is our duty to restrict government in every way we can
    Flytipping and dog mess are quite grim tbf
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    "More than 70 MPs - including more than 40 Conservatives - have sent a warning shot to Boris Johnson by forming a major cross-party campaign against the use of vaccine passports within the UK."

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-more-than-70-mps-warn-against-covid-passports-as-govt-considers-trialling-their-use-at-uk-events-12263326
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    MrEd said:

    ydoethur said:

    MrEd said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    As expected Alba is a damp squib.
    I predicted as much.

    It is REALLY hard to get over 5% as a new party, especially when your leader is a known (but legally unblemished) sex pest.

    What is disappointing from a Unionist perspective is no obvious “bounce” for Anas Sarwar and little damage to the SNP. And the Greens appear completely unscathed.

    No, it's gravy for unionists. The Nationalist cause is schismatized, and seems bitterly divided, and Boris can dismiss the new Holyrood as a gamed system

    If Alba do this badly, Salmond has done terrible damage to indy. We shall see
    The way this poll in the header looks, the embarrassing and degrading mess over the last months has not dampened enthusiasm for an SNP majority. The SNP are through the worst too and are likely to get stronger.
    Schisms are bad. I know you want the SNP to win so Scotland goes indy to punish us for voting Brexit, but, schisms are bad. They generally hinder the cause

    It would be surprising, but not impossible, if this were an exception, but so far it looks like proving the rule

    I readily admit that if Alba gets 15 seats on the List (and the SNP gets zillions of constituency seats) then that will boost the indy cause. Boris will still refuse a vote, but there is then a chance that Scotland will surge into passive mass resistance and Mahatama Gandhi stylee bullshit.

    And then, after five years, the YES vote could be consistently over 60% and Britain is done for. Certainly possible
    It was only Attlee's Labour Party who granted Gandhi Indian independence, Churchill's Tory led government ignored him on the whole
    Churchill’s Tory led government that locked him in prison for two years?
    The point being they certainly did not concede him anything, it was only Attlee's Labour Party winning the 1945 election that led to Indian independence in 1947
    It was an awful lot more complicated than that. True. Churchill refused to consider anything while the war was on, but between American support for decolonisation, the concession of a stated goal of Dominion status in 1935, the weak economic position of Britain, unrest elsewhere spreading the army very thin and the situation in India itself, there was no realistic way that India would have remained a British colony much beyond 1947 even if the ghosts of F E Smith and Clive had been leading the government.

    It might have been postponed to 1949-50, but realistically not later. The French couldn’t even hold Vietnam beyond 1954 and they wasted an awful lot of men, time and effort trying.

    Of course, if it had been delayed to 1949 there might have been no partition as the death of Jinnah would have removed a key obstacle. But don’t delude yourself* that Churchill would somehow have clung on for a significant length of time more than Attlee did.

    * Admittedly this would be a break with a fine PB traidition.
    Britain would probably have been able to hold on in some form or another for quite a long time if WW2 had not broken out. The Princely States would have backed them (generally) and the composition of the Indian Army pre-WW2 meant they had a reliable force to suppress disorder.
    And Churchill would never have been PM if WWII had not broken out, the succession remaining in the hands of the Chamberlain group who wrote the Government of India Act, so the point is moot.
    That is true for this particular discussion but there is the wider question of how long the British would have stayed on in India if WW2 had not broken out. Commitment to India was strong amongst a lot of elements and there was also the realisation of how important Indian Army firepower would be in a military conflict. It is hard to imagine the UK Government would have let India follow the path of the Irish Free State.
    Which ignores the fact that (1) those ‘elements’ had been sidelined, apparently for good - it took the war to bring them out of the wilderness and if Churchill hadn’t been one it wouldn’t have happened then and (2) what you find ‘hard to imagine’ is exactly what the British government were actually doing and had been for nearly a decade.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    kle4 said:

    By the by, France's covid stats are weird. They've basically been between 300-400 deaths a day since early December as a 7 day average apparently. It's presently at the low end of that, but the case rate suggests that will change, but it is still oddly flat (with slight trend down) for a long time.

    I trust their numbers the least of the major European nations.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234
    Listening to the news, Govt seem to be talking about COVID passports on borders whilst complaints are about internal PPs.

    Gearing up a compromise I'd say.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Has anyone explained how they marry the existing NHS app, which is anonymous and explicitly designed to be so, with a vaccine passport app, which by definition can’t be.

    I notice also the furore about the Govt tightening (everyone has to register, not one person in a group) the rules for registration in pubs post April (when everything is still outside!) - which also seems to have mysteriously abandoned the anonymity of the previous system...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,234
    edited April 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    "Doreen Lawrence says No 10 report gives 'racists the green light'
    Exclusive: Mother of murdered teenager says Sewell report has pushed fight against racism back 20 years or more"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/doreen-lawrence-says-no-10-report-gives-racists-the-green-light

    It has to be admitted that Doreen Lawrence is very much at one end of this debate.

    And also that that was her reaction before she'd read the report ("when I first heard about it.").

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Precisely they have to expend man power, that takes a bit more doing than checking an entry in a database.
    Both require effort, obviously one more than the other. My point is why are they interested in when you go to the pub? Perhaps instead they are interested in a system where you can show you have a negative test result or a vaccine.
    And when they use your frequency of pub visits to for example ration access to certain treatments on the grounds you did it yourself? Don't forget its not only reasonable access where needed either, access will be granted to all sorts of wierd and wonderful departments and quangos. Remember when they claimed RIPA laws would only be used to investigate serious crime and were then used by local councils to check up on school catchment areas, flytipping and dog mess.

    A person that trusts a government is a fool. It is our duty to restrict government in every way we can
    I don’t disagree in general but RIPA was always completely misrepresented as a law that allowed Councils to do stuff, when actually its main purpose was to regulate and tighten the rules on a huge range of stuff they were doing already. It was about requiring authorising and recording (creating an audit trail for approval) surveillance activity not explicitly defining/expanding what you could use surveillance for.

    What i think it generally prohibited was speculative unfocused surveillance, and required a basic level of suspicion that (by)laws were being broken before it could be employed.


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    By the by, France's covid stats are weird. They've basically been between 300-400 deaths a day since early December as a 7 day average apparently. It's presently at the low end of that, but the case rate suggests that will change, but it is still oddly flat (with slight trend down) for a long time.

    I trust their numbers the least of the major European nations.
    Numbers i’m really somewhat intrigued by are South Korea’s.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    alex_ said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Precisely they have to expend man power, that takes a bit more doing than checking an entry in a database.
    Both require effort, obviously one more than the other. My point is why are they interested in when you go to the pub? Perhaps instead they are interested in a system where you can show you have a negative test result or a vaccine.
    And when they use your frequency of pub visits to for example ration access to certain treatments on the grounds you did it yourself? Don't forget its not only reasonable access where needed either, access will be granted to all sorts of wierd and wonderful departments and quangos. Remember when they claimed RIPA laws would only be used to investigate serious crime and were then used by local councils to check up on school catchment areas, flytipping and dog mess.

    A person that trusts a government is a fool. It is our duty to restrict government in every way we can
    I don’t disagree in general but RIPA was always completely misrepresented as a law that allowed Councils to do stuff, when actually its main purpose was to regulate and tighten the rules on a huge range of stuff they were doing already. It was about requiring authorising and recording (creating an audit trail for approval) surveillance activity not explicitly defining/expanding what you could use surveillance for.

    What i think it generally prohibited was speculative unfocused surveillance, and required a basic level of suspicion that (by)laws were being broken before it could be employed.


    Also I suspect stories about dog walkers are anecdotal and likely massively exaggerated (to the extent they are true at all). Fly-tipping on the other hand is a serious and widespread problem for many Councils (although one always has to consider whether individual council waste disposal policies may contribute to making it so).

  • Andy_JS said:

    "More than 70 MPs - including more than 40 Conservatives - have sent a warning shot to Boris Johnson by forming a major cross-party campaign against the use of vaccine passports within the UK."

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-more-than-70-mps-warn-against-covid-passports-as-govt-considers-trialling-their-use-at-uk-events-12263326

    I don't know what to think about this. Or, rather, I'm conflicted. On the one hand they're actually a really good idea, as is the traffic light system for travel. It's a good compromise solution: go to countries with low covid rates and good vaccine uptake. Vaccine and / or test passes make sense in terms of keeping down the viral spread.

    Unless you're going all out Laurence Fox i.e. do what you like even if it harms others then there's some good science and sense behind both measures.

    On the other hand, and it's a biggy, this Government are increasingly relishing authoritarianism. Their propensity to infringe civil liberties is now spreading faster than the pandemic.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Covid passport trials to begin at UK events this month

    FA Cup final, an FA Cup semi-final, the League Cup final and the World Snooker Championship are taking part in pilot schemes

    Covid passports are set to be trialled at events in Britain within weeks, The Telegraph can reveal, as the Government pushes ahead with the idea despite a growing rebellion by MPs.

    New details of around a dozen pilot schemes for safely opening large events will be announced in the coming days, with plans to trial Covid certification checks. The FA Cup final, an FA Cup semi-final, the League Cup final and the World Snooker Championship are taking part, with the Brit Awards also in discussions.

    People going to the events will be asked to take a Covid test to gain entry and another after attendance so that any spreading of the virus can be monitored. Government scientists are closely involved in designing the pilots and will watch everything from crowd flows to ventilation systems to learn lessons about running large events.

    Multiple Government sources involved in the planning told The Telegraph it is hoped that Covid passports – producing a certificate showing your virus status – will feature in some pilots.

    The events will run throughout April and May, and ministers want enough conclusions to be drawn for the reopening of large events to be able to happen from as early as mid-June.

    While events in April will require a negative Covid test to gain entry, it is hoped some of the pilots in May can trial an updated NHS app which shows whether someone has had a jab, negative test or antibodies – what has been described a Covid passport.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/01/exclusivecovid-passport-trials-begin-uk-events-month/

    I think on this issue Johnson is right and both Starmer and all the posters here on PB are wrong. What's the problem with carrying ID? I had to pull out my driving licence to claim a pre ordered packet of hinges from Screwfix today.

    I also have a Chinese mobile phone so President Xi, Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos all know where I am, so I don't suppose a vaccine passport will make much difference.
    First rule of politics.

    Learn how to count.

    Boris doesn't have the votes for this.
    I think you will find he has even if it goes to a vote
    Nope. I expect a Tory rebellion of around 70 on this.
    This is a pilot to open the economy and no, I do not believe this will not get through, even if it is voted on
    Herd immunity solves the problem, not kowtowing to fearties (who almost certainly won't be there anyway, because frit).
    We are some way off herd immunity and the public are highly risk averse

    This policy will be very popular as people see it as the start of a way back to more normal times
    This is ridiculous @Big_G_NorthWales . You still haven't explained what the benefit of these vaccine passports are. All you say is "they are coming". I know they are coming but I asked what the benefit of them is.

    The vaccine is the way back to normal times. Not this distraction.
    I agree once we are 100% vaccinated and the pandemic is largely under control in Europe and elsewhere

    However, we need to start up the economy long before then in a way that has public support and is not seen as reckless

    The pandemic is almost over in the UK, and you solve the problem of large-scale importation from abroad with travel restrictions. Small-scale importation (e.g. through truck drivers) isn't going to be prevented by these mechanisms and will only cause serious harm if a variant that completely escapes the vaccines gets into the country. In that (AIUI very unlikely) scenario we'll all end up back in lockdown before very long and vaccine passports will be of no useful effect in stopping that.

    A sophisticated system of vaccine passports obviously isn't going to be in place for the re-opening on April 12th, and even if it can somehow be got up and running by May 17th the virus will be heavily suppressed by that point, the Covid wards nearly empty, deaths almost down to nothing, and quite likely all the over 40s will have been vaccinated to boot. The only use it has under those circumstances is to impose divisive discrimination upon the young that will, in any event, do almost nothing to protect the middle aged or elderly.

    We don't need these mechanisms to re-open the economy safely. The unlocking timetable is cautious in the extreme as it is: any notion that it's somehow reckless, when we are waiting five full weeks between each of these little baby steps (with SAGE nervously poring over every fresh scrap of data in the meantime, just in case they discover justification for slowing down even more,) is laughable. Moreover, by the time we get to mid-May, it's going to be virtually as safe as it is ever going to get for all the most vulnerable groups: everyone over 50 bar a handful of anti-vaxxers will have long since been jabbed by that point, and the over 70s and shielders will have been done twice.

    Vaccine passports are a pointless imposition which will do nothing but impose costly burdens on businesses, in the form of the extra effort and expense needed to police their proper usage. The UK hospitality sector doesn't want vaccine passports, any more than the Spanish tourism sector wants state-enforced masking on beaches. They are a nuisance and deleterious to trade. They've nothing to do with economic renewal and everything to do with authoritarianism and the expansion of state power.
    You are in a much better place about all this than a few weeks ago. Happy for you.
    The last thing that really derailed me was the panic over the SA variant. Once it became apparent that (a) the Kent plague had effectively already crowded it out, (b) that (according to my limited understanding of the science, at any rate) something even worse was unlikely to emerge any time soon, and (c) deaths and hospitalisations continued to drop like a stone (and are still doing so,) I gradually began to feel more comfortable about the situation.

    Hence the fact that I'm now satisfied that we're through the last lockdown and it's not going to go to crap again, save in the scenario of total vaccine escape, which I view as possible but very unlikely. Hence also my willingness to put up with the cautious unlocking intervals that the non-psychotic wing of the scientific establishment has asked for, but not for lengthy foot-dragging and/or the excessive imposition of counter-measures. The pandemic experience has brought about lasting change and I'm not by any means averse to all of those changes. What I don't accept is the need either for Draconian impositions that result in intrusive, Chinese-style state surveillance, or years of widespread social restrictions and mask wearing edicts that serve no purpose but to grind us all down.

    We've all been living in one giant open prison for the last year - and the sacrifices have only been worth it because of the scale of the threat we faced, and the consequences of not deploying countermeasures. Once the threat is crushed the prison walls must be demolished. No excuses.
    Masks are a weird thing, aren’t they? On my walk to the shops earlier to buy steak and wine, I saw three or four people walking alone, with nobody anywhere near them, wearing masks. I’ve done it myself several times, albeit briefly, when I’ve plain forgotten to take my mask off. But I wondered, did all these people forget? Or were they wearing a mask deliberately, alone, outdoors in the freshening breeze? Dunno.
    I don’t in general, but I have noticed that wearing a mask is quite useful for keeping your face warm. My problem is I can’t wear the mask and glasses at the same time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    alex_ said:

    Has anyone explained how they marry the existing NHS app, which is anonymous and explicitly designed to be so, with a vaccine passport app, which by definition can’t be.

    I notice also the furore about the Govt tightening (everyone has to register, not one person in a group) the rules for registration in pubs post April (when everything is still outside!) - which also seems to have mysteriously abandoned the anonymity of the previous system...

    The contact tracing part of the app is anonymous in that it is local to your phone. It has to be this way with the bluetooth scanning backend as designed by Goog and Aapl.
    An update to add your NHS number and hence link through to vaccination status requires explicit action though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Sachin Tendulkar, 47 hospitalised by covid.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I think what a lot of people are overlooking about vaccine passports (and indeed the likely continuation of coronavirus emergency powers in general) is that they are not being driven by Covid, so much as “pandemics” in general. Large members of the Govt have completely bought into the mantra that this wasn’t a “once in a hundred year” event but something with will turn up every few years. And having enjoyed the powers to act rapidly and outside normal democratic/Parliamentary processes they have no intention of giving these powers up. So will want to keep them there, “just in case”. I certainly would be surprised if they don’t get extended for another six months in September.

    The irony, as Cyclefree has pointed out, is that the Govt didn’t “need” the Coronavirus legislation at all - almost everything needed was already in Statute via the Civil Contingencies Act 2000. But of course, being a piece of legislation that had gone through the full process of Parliamentary scrutiny in the normal way, I suspect that contains far more general democratic safeguards than the Govt was willing to accept.

    Probably at some point the Govt will tire of the six-monthly arguments about extension and look to make them permanent. At which point the CCA will be “remembered”.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    edited April 2021
    There are two separate NHS Apps aren't there? One is the Contact Track and Trace which I deleted within 24 hours from my phone as I found it intrusive, inaccurate and irritating.

    The other is the actual NHS App itself which is not the same and contains biometric personal data and which, on my phone, uses Face ID for login. It seems secure and privacy protection seems good.

    If they used the latter for covid passports I'd have no problem.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited April 2021

    There are two separate NHS Apps aren't there? One is the Contact Track and Trace which I deleted within 24 hours from my phone as I found it intrusive, inaccurate and irritating.

    The other is the actual NHS App itself which is not the same and contains biometric personal data and which, on my phone, uses Face ID for login. It seems secure and privacy protection seems good.

    If they used the latter for covid passports I'd have no problem.

    I think you’ve got those back to front. The first one is anonymous and therefore privacy is guaranteed (however “irritating” it might have been - it could always be ignored. There was also a bug in it in its early days). The second one only offers “security and privacy” if you trust the Govt not to misuse the data held on it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Bhutan to have every adult vaccinated by Tuesday.
    Up your game Bozza!

    Their line on the vaccine tracker chart is a doozy

    I worry about the shape of the Israel line. It suggests that RCS's optimism that those hesitant about taking the vaccine will be encouraged by others doing so, does not seem to be taking effect. I do wonder whether some nearby to the UK countries will see fewer people taking the vaccine.
    Hasn't that already been explained by Israel having an above-average under 18 population as well as 10% odd ultra-orthodox?
    A country where some people throw stones at ambulances that come by on a Saturday is likely to have some vaccine refusals.
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    edited April 2021
    alex_ said:

    There are two separate NHS Apps aren't there? One is the Contact Track and Trace which I deleted within 24 hours from my phone as I found it intrusive, inaccurate and irritating.

    The other is the actual NHS App itself which is not the same and contains biometric personal data and which, on my phone, uses Face ID for login. It seems secure and privacy protection seems good.

    If they used the latter for covid passports I'd have no problem.

    I think you’ve got those back to front. The first one is anonymous and therefore privacy is guaranteed (however “irritating” it might have been - it could always be ignored. There was also a bug in it in its early days). The second one only offers “security and privacy” if you trust the Govt not to misuse the data held on it.
    I don't think you're right about this?

    The first one is obviously not anonymous as such. Even with your phone switched off they have you pinned. Turn it on and they can monitor your every move. It does what it says on the tin: it's designed to track and trace you. It amuses me that you think anonymous = guaranteed privacy. It's neither truly anonymous nor private.

    With the real NHS App you can switch off optional analytical cookies. The Gov't have no access to the NHS app and nor would they need to have. Unlike most things on the internet it's not used for data mining either. It could contain a pass, a certificate, which is like Apple Pay or indeed a rail ticket. Mine already contains my vaccination status. Login is biometric facial recognition and in so far as anything on the internet is secure, it is.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Andy_JS said:

    For example, the Tories won Streatham even more recently than Hartlepool, at the 1987 GE, but at GE2019 they came third on 16% of the vote. I rather think that Streatham is currently beyond the Tories reach, but they won it 28 years more recently than Hartlepool. I will hazard a guess that other factors are of greater importance than whether the seat changed hands in the 50s.

    Edmonton and Walthamstow were Tory in 1987 and/or 1992, something which is difficult to believe.
    Ilford North was Tory in 2010. Utterly gone, now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204

    alex_ said:

    There are two separate NHS Apps aren't there? One is the Contact Track and Trace which I deleted within 24 hours from my phone as I found it intrusive, inaccurate and irritating.

    The other is the actual NHS App itself which is not the same and contains biometric personal data and which, on my phone, uses Face ID for login. It seems secure and privacy protection seems good.

    If they used the latter for covid passports I'd have no problem.

    I think you’ve got those back to front. The first one is anonymous and therefore privacy is guaranteed (however “irritating” it might have been - it could always be ignored. There was also a bug in it in its early days). The second one only offers “security and privacy” if you trust the Govt not to misuse the data held on it.
    I don't think you're right about this?

    The first one is obviously not anonymous as such. Even with your phone switched off they have you pinned. Turn it on and they can monitor your every move. It does what it says on the tin: it's designed to track and trace you. It amuses me that you think anonymous = guaranteed privacy. It's neither truly anonymous nor private.

    With the real NHS App you can switch off optional analytical cookies. The Gov't have no access to the NHS app and nor would they need to have. Unlike most things on the internet it's not used for data mining either. It could contain a pass, a certificate, which is like Apple Pay or indeed a rail ticket.

    No that isn't correct about the track and trace app. The bluetooth backend is local to your phone, it HAS to be this way or it couldn't have been created.
    The govt wanted it centralised - it couldn't be done within Google and Apple framework
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,456
    alex_ said:

    There are two separate NHS Apps aren't there? One is the Contact Track and Trace which I deleted within 24 hours from my phone as I found it intrusive, inaccurate and irritating.

    The other is the actual NHS App itself which is not the same and contains biometric personal data and which, on my phone, uses Face ID for login. It seems secure and privacy protection seems good.

    If they used the latter for covid passports I'd have no problem.

    I think you’ve got those back to front. The first one is anonymous and therefore privacy is guaranteed (however “irritating” it might have been - it could always be ignored. There was also a bug in it in its early days). The second one only offers “security and privacy” if you trust the Govt not to misuse the data held on it.
    There is a 'carrot' for using the second. As far as our local surgery is concerned at least, it provides by far the easiest method of ordering repeat prescriptions. TBH I'm not sure how one can order them now without it! Must be able to, of course.

    The first still has the scanner on it to 'allow' one to be traced when one has been in contact with someone who is Covid +ve.

    And Good Morning everyone. Second Pfizer dose late this afternoon!
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    edited April 2021
    The point I was making is that nothing is anonymous unless you are using top end VPN. Your phone carries your data everywhere you go. Open it up and you are not anonymous.

    A contact track and trace that can pin down your exact location is clearly not anonymous.

    Let's put it another way, supposing you were using the app and you were also found to be carrying a so-called deadly variant. I can assure you that they would be knocking on your very own front door very very quickly.

    Contact track and trace know exactly where you are, when you are. The who is the easy bit.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Pre covid, what proportion of 18-40 year old would travel internationally at least once a year? Would an international covid certificate not be nudge factor enough for bringing up vaccine rates in the young if that’s the goal?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Brom said:

    justin124 said:

    I didn't claim holding Hartlepool was going to be a success or not, this is a betting site, I was making a betting prediction.

    Jesus Christ, some people really do read what they want to read

    Indeed - the point is that two weeks ago there were very confident forecasts on here of a Tory gain there. It might still happen - though a fair bit of the certainty of such an outcome appears to have gone. The betting market has certainly moved against the Tories and national polling is not currently pointing to such a result.
    I remain quietly confident of a Tory win. I just think the Tories have more pluses to their name than Labour right now and the biggest factor on Teeside is people voting for Ben Houchen. It just seems unlikely they will vote Tory for Mayor and Labour for their MP and that could make the difference.
    Wouldn't be so confident if they announce domestic vaxports before the by election. For example I will certainly vote anti tory if they even try and bring them in and the next election and while yes people are in favour of them in a steered poll question I think they will get push back from the people who are strongly anti
    The poll question was steered?
    Vaccine passports were defined to respondents as: ‘Some have suggested that the Government should introduce “vaccine passports” whereby those who have received the coronavirus vaccine would be able to prove they have taken it. Some argue that this could lead to coronavirus restrictions being lifted more quickly but you may not be able to visit certain places or do certain activities until you have one.’

    It implied very strongly that they would get june 21st earlier if we brought in vaxports....I call that steering when we already know they aren't going to speed up. Nor did they define what vaxports would entail and most probably think just flashing your vaccination card is whats meant and will only last till full vaccination. I think when the government puts out concrete proposals and people see what they entail and its not about full unlocking before june then the polling will shift substantially
    Yeah I agree, they should have asked the question without that second sentence. It will always be flashing your card though. Hard to see what more it could be than that.
    NHS x are already putting proposals together for an app and qr code you scan
    That not new though, that's been around since last summer.
    Nope this is an addon for the purpose of vaxports
    But the principle is the same. Scan to check-in.
    Which is a lot different to flashing your card as it adds you to the database everytime you go somewhere
    That information already exists. If the government wanted to track you they have far more efficient ways of doing so.
    Currently they cannot easily know if I visit a bar, I dont carry a phone, I dont use a card.
    If they want to they could quite easily. The suspicion that it is designed simply to track who goes to the pub when is ridiculous, quite frankly.
    No they really couldn't find out easily they would have to devote man power to it in one form or other. I am not sure how you consider they can easily find out if I goto a bar or restaurant when there is no electronic trail flagging it. Nor did I say they are designing it purely to track down who goes to the pub. However this government, or possibly the civil service wonks have shown far too often they want a database tracking everyone whereever they go and whatever they do.
    They could, they could simply have you followed.
    Let's pretend there were no civil liberties consequences.

    What is the problem that vaccine passports are the solution to?
    I can only see them being useful for travel, and working like the EU vrsion:

    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1377561374822440960?s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,212
    UK also now noting the rare clotting cases associated with the AZN vaccine.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1377769278351499267
  • moonshine said:

    Pre covid, what proportion of 18-40 year old would travel internationally at least once a year? Would an international covid certificate not be nudge factor enough for bringing up vaccine rates in the young if that’s the goal?

    Some kids I know can't wait to get jabbed if it enables them to party in the Med. They have no problems with a certificate for that. Bring it on is their view.

    Actually as a general point in my experience the yoofs I know are far less concerned about data privacy than the middle aged and oldies I know.
  • Nigelb said:

    UK also now noting the rare clotting cases associated with the AZN vaccine.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1377769278351499267

    I'd be really interested to know if these were people already susceptible to clotting issues e.g. those on HRT or those who are, well let's not beat around the bush, fat.

    Anyway 30 out of 30 million, or 20 million if we stick to just AZN, is not a lot. A one in a million chance of getting a blood clot doesn't seem to render the jab dodgy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,207
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Doreen Lawrence says No 10 report gives 'racists the green light'
    Exclusive: Mother of murdered teenager says Sewell report has pushed fight against racism back 20 years or more"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/doreen-lawrence-says-no-10-report-gives-racists-the-green-light

    It has to be admitted that Doreen Lawrence is very much at one end of this debate.

    And also that that was her reaction before she'd read the report ("when I first heard about it.").

    I think it's great that Lord Sewell has managed to find a new role. This story would have sunk a lesser man: https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/cops-probe-hooker-drugs-shame-6144489
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,456

    moonshine said:

    Pre covid, what proportion of 18-40 year old would travel internationally at least once a year? Would an international covid certificate not be nudge factor enough for bringing up vaccine rates in the young if that’s the goal?

    Some kids I know can't wait to get jabbed if it enables them to party in the Med. They have no problems with a certificate for that. Bring it on is their view.

    Actually as a general point in my experience the yoofs I know are far less concerned about data privacy than the middle aged and oldies I know.
    The whole 'privacy' business is somewhat of a movable feast isn't it. Does one mind carrying a passport when out of the one's own country? Almost certainly not. A driving licence to certify that at some point one was adjudged suitable to be in charge of a motor vehicle. Again, almost certainly there's no problem with that. What about, for oldies like me, a bus pass? Not a problem.
    But an ID card, which might well include all those features. No, not at all sure about that!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,212

    Nigelb said:

    UK also now noting the rare clotting cases associated with the AZN vaccine.
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1377769278351499267

    I'd be really interested to know if these were people already susceptible to clotting issues e.g. those on HRT or those who are, well let's not beat around the bush, fat.

    Anyway 30 out of 30 million, or 20 million if we stick to just AZN, is not a lot. A one in a million chance of getting a blood clot doesn't seem to render the jab dodgy.
    No doubt we’ll find out in due course.
    Considering the numbers of older people we’ve vaccinated, the figures are not inconsistent with the European reports of cases mainly in women under 50.

    As you say, the numbers are very small indeed, but note also the ‘no reports’ for the Pfizer vaccine.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,804
    Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, an ID card that you might be asked for to conduct basic business on an everyday basis and that comes with a huge database attached is not something to be welcomed (it wasn't when Brown wanted it in 2007).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Just downloaded the NHS Non track and trace app. It is definitely not one to go for if you mistrust the government
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    moonshine said:

    Pre covid, what proportion of 18-40 year old would travel internationally at least once a year? Would an international covid certificate not be nudge factor enough for bringing up vaccine rates in the young if that’s the goal?

    Some kids I know can't wait to get jabbed if it enables them to party in the Med. They have no problems with a certificate for that. Bring it on is their view.

    Actually as a general point in my experience the yoofs I know are far less concerned about data privacy than the middle aged and oldies I know.
    You are adding conditions though. The questions are whether vaccine passports (domestically in a highly vaccinated population) are actually a necessary precondition to expanding social activity.

    With scientific justification (on anything other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle) as opposed to just because the Government decrees it to be so. The debate is almost entirely being framed as the former when increasingly the reality seems to be the latter. The Government is moving towards a position where the population is being held hostage unless they collectively accept vaccine passports. Whilst sending out massive mixed messaging about what any such scheme would involve and when it might be introduced (and for what purpose). In little more than a week we’ve gone from the (leaked) messaging being “grave ethical issues”, to “voluntary scheme for businesses if their customers want it”, to “potential requirement for businesses but only once everyone has been offered a vaccine”, to “unlocking timetable dependent on their introduction”..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,456

    Good morning, everyone.

    King Cole, an ID card that you might be asked for to conduct basic business on an everyday basis and that comes with a huge database attached is not something to be welcomed (it wasn't when Brown wanted it in 2007).

    Mr Dancer, my bus pass has a long number on it. I've no idea to what that refers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    In shock news, using emojis is apparently now a sign of old age :o
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,804
    King Cole, I'm not against forms of ID. I'm against one with a huge database and that is needed for a smorgasbord of activities and which may (if it's an app or suchlike) enable tracking.

    Bad idea when Brown wanted it, bad idea now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,456

    King Cole, I'm not against forms of ID. I'm against one with a huge database and that is needed for a smorgasbord of activities and which may (if it's an app or suchlike) enable tracking.

    Bad idea when Brown wanted it, bad idea now.

    Indeed, I understand your feelings. However I'm rather thinking aloud. How many ID-type cards do I want in my wallet? Admittedly there's more room now I don't need cash.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited April 2021
    Re: vaccine passports through phones. What’s to stop somebody having two phones, both with app on them, and giving one to their (unvaccinated) friend? (Temporarily to gain entry)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Doreen Lawrence says No 10 report gives 'racists the green light'
    Exclusive: Mother of murdered teenager says Sewell report has pushed fight against racism back 20 years or more"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/doreen-lawrence-says-no-10-report-gives-racists-the-green-light

    It has to be admitted that Doreen Lawrence is very much at one end of this debate.

    And also that that was her reaction before she'd read the report ("when I first heard about it.").

    I think it's great that Lord Sewell has managed to find a new role. This story would have sunk a lesser man: https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/cops-probe-hooker-drugs-shame-6144489
    Might be wise to spell his name right, there?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just downloaded the NHS Non track and trace app. It is definitely not one to go for if you mistrust the government

    I'm sorry but that's faintly ridiculous.
  • IanB2 said:

    In shock news, using emojis is apparently now a sign of old age :o


    No no.

    Only 'some' emojis. Other emojis are sick.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14525696/using-emojis-such-as-thumbs-up-ok-hand-or-crying-face-means-you-are-officially-old-claims-new-survey/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    I love the way the ID card debate comes back. It not a party issue. If a party has been in power for a long time, ID cards start to become important to them. Major wanted them, Brown wanted them, now this lot want them.

    Another sign that we need democracy to refresh the occupants of Downing St and Whitehall.
This discussion has been closed.