Alba just get 3% in first Scottish poll since Salmond launched his new party – politicalbetting.com

LOL

I was going to ask how this poll was for the unionists. Turns out - not great

The thread header has vanished after briefly attracting much interest.

Not like Salmond, who may have led to many interesting briefs but was not merely of brief interest.

Alba Turkey?

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1377674190703190017

I'm more interested in the sweet spot when(if) they cost Sindy parties any seats.

But I'd settle for 'no additional' sindy msps on top of what already looked likely.

If they really do get nothing do they go the way of change UK, even the MPs?

The SNP has such a surfeit of constituency MPs, that if they fish only in that pool, I can't see them reducing the number of Sindy MPs at all.

However, if they take votes from the Greens, such that they both dip below 6-7% in a given region, then it would have an impact.

Seems unlikely they both could be so reduced, shame.

Nicola Sturgeon has just seen this poll.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1377672962191544321

TheScreamingEagles said:

turbotubbs said:

So why isn’t this murder attracting the same opprobrium as that of Sarah Everard?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56569863
Genuine question as this seemed equally horrifying.

Because he's not someone who is employed with the full power of the state to protect us.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes...

I thought the outrage was about all women and all men? I’m genuinely mystified as to why this doesn’t make the main news.

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

Go to Cardiff instead?

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

Go to Cardiff instead?

I love Cardiff. But it's not in the same league as London from a tourist perspective.

I think this summer and autumn might be the best ever time to be a tourist in London - everything open (hopefully) but no foreign tourists competing for space.

The Nomad Hotel is opening in London in May, and in my travelling days I always loved staying in their New York mothership.

But, I suspect it’s a bit wanky for you.

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

You’re not far off Ritz money, booked in advance.

Gardenwalker said:

As expected Alba is a damp squib.
I predicted as much.

It is REALLY hard to get over 5% as a new party, especially when your leader is a known (but legally unblemished) sex pest.

What is disappointing from a Unionist perspective is no obvious “bounce” for Anas Sarwar and little damage to the SNP. And the Greens appear completely unscathed.

Probably a tad too early to look at Sawars impact, but no doubt labour are in a better place than they’ve been historically.

Interesting times ahead

Gardenwalker said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

Go to Cardiff instead?

I love Cardiff. But it's not in the same league as London from a tourist perspective.

I think this summer and autumn might be the best ever time to be a tourist in London - everything open (hopefully) but no foreign tourists competing for space.

The Nomad Hotel is opening in London in May, and in my travelling days I always loved staying in their New York mothership.

But, I suspect it’s a bit wanky for you.

I've not heard of it before. I'll take a look, thanks.

Gallowgate said:

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

I can only imagine what £400-£500 per night gets you... I assume someone is available to dress and bathe you?

It's way above what I'd normally spend but it is a special occasion.

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

The Goring is nice.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

Civil liberties, Belgium-style.
Horses, water cannons, and tear gas.

No doubt some PBers would approve of importing this continental innovation.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1377667538490916864?s=21

I believe there was a British politician who bought water cannon trucks, anyone know what happened to him?

I don’t know but I remember he was a bit of a drip.

I think he had a major problem with leaks.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

https://www.ft.com/content/fe234f59-75b9-44f7-af8a-f05e588957b7#

Greensill Capital’s administrator has failed to verify invoices underpinning loans to Sanjeev Gupta, after companies listed on the documents denied that they had ever done business with the metals magnate.

If this is true, then things are likely to end very poorly for GFG, Liberty, and for various politicians who guaranteed GFG loans.

Bloody hell, this is Wirecard level of awful. The auditor is going to be in big trouble too.

According to the FT article, there are invoices to firms that do not even have trading relationships with GFG.

That's a major, major issue. Because auditors should check pretty much all major trading relationships actually exist, and then should spot check invoices.

(I don't personally think this is quite as bad as Wirecard, because GFG/Greensill didn't get the UK regulator to threaten journalists who asked awkward questions.)

On topic, I disagree with the final sentence.

The only way this election is going to be tight is if all the candidates are locked in a distillery.

The question is whether the SNP are the largest party or win a majority. Anything else is noise.

Gardenwalker said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gardenwalker said:

Civil liberties, Belgium-style.
Horses, water cannons, and tear gas.

No doubt some PBers would approve of importing this continental innovation.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1377667538490916864?s=21

I believe there was a British politician who bought water cannon trucks, anyone know what happened to him?

I don’t know but I remember he was a bit of a drip.

I think he had a major problem with leaks.

Good job he wasn’t Welsh then.

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

You don’t need to pay anything like that to get somewhere decent. Do a search on one of the main booking websites, ideally via a cashback page like Quidco. Some special hotels to look at: 41, Charlotte St Hotel, the Soho Hotel, the Cadogan, the Langham, the Bloomsbury.

TimT said:

@ Benpointer FPT

Dukes, in St James' Place, for a classy, quiet hotel in a superb location

Where they only allow you two martinis and where once I was sitting when a fellow stood up, walked to the door, and then fell into a table before he made it.

Dukes was actually one of my very few socialising events post March 2020. And no I didn't fall over but damn those martinis are good.

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

TimT said:

@ Benpointer FPT

Dukes, in St James' Place, for a classy, quiet hotel in a superb location

Agreed.

Sadly Le Caprice is no longer around the corner.

I know. Shocking.

And The Stafford has also sadly gone downhill.

Has it? That's sad. I used to love the bar at the Stafford.

Vaccine passports are coming - for foreign travel

https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1377692487918227459?s=19

I think the pro-Indy majority much be more comfortable than these polls suggest.

The Euros in 2019 did get decent numbers of Remainders working out how to tactically vote n multi member constituencies, an element of the remain campaign which was broadly successful with smallish numbers of people.

What Alba have done is thrown open the supermajority idea, and what may actually happen is greater SNP / Green splitting where that is helpful: both as a positive attempt at a supermajority and a defensive move to prevent Alba's odd success bringing them the balance of power.

Don't get me wrong, this won't be loads, but could be enough Green list votes to get the SNP/Green comfortably over the line.

rcs1000 said:

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

TimT said:

@ Benpointer FPT

Dukes, in St James' Place, for a classy, quiet hotel in a superb location

Agreed.

Sadly Le Caprice is no longer around the corner.

I know. Shocking.

And The Stafford has also sadly gone downhill.

Has it? That's sad. I used to love the bar at the Stafford.

Not the same anymore. The bar is the same but they are sweating the asset.

And I agree with @MrEd - nothing wrong with the Wolseley. As long as you can sit in the inner circle...

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

Rocco Forte Brown's Hotel. Amazing location in Westminster, good food and old school English ambience. About that price.

slade said:

One local by-election today - Con defence in Monmouthshire. Also a rumour that there are 13 Loony candidates in the Chessington South by- election in Kingston.

I hope we have masses of loony candidates all over the country given lower signature requirements. That is an impressive number for a counci by election though.

isam said:

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

I stayed at a hotel called The Landmark last January, the Winter Gardens were cool, that’s the reason I booked it, and it’s convenient for Regents Park, Hampstead & the WestEnd shops. My girlfriend ordered a drink and the bottom fell out of the glass and soaked her clothes, which ruined the night a bit. I’m not a London hotel expert, the only other one I’ve stayed in is the Soho, which might be a bit young for you I’m guessing.

Here’s a pic of the Winter Gardens from my insta!

Used to use the Landmark for breakfast meetings - mainly because Marylebone station is opposite so I could be there for 8am without any issue.

Two thoughts:

1. Far too early to write off Salmond. Firstly his party has only just become a thing. Secondly we ought to know better than to read anything into a single opinion poll. Polls are potentially deeply unreliable as it is - the least we can therefore do is look at a whole series of them and try to spot trends.

2. However, because it's no fun not joining in the game of wild guesses, I'm going to do it anyway. A possible explanation for the list vote changes is as follows:

(a) Younger pro-independence voters - particularly likely to be raring to dump the English and about the Greens' platform - are voting Green in larger numbers. They can pick something they approve of *and* follow the logic of Salmond's supermajority plan without having to go anywhere near the man himself: what's not to like?
(b) The decline in Tory support is the product of some Yes/Leave voters, who dislike the SNP even more than they approve of nationalism as a concept, going to Alba, and some wet centrists who liked Ruth deserting to the Lib Dems.
(c) Regardless of how much of an improvement Anas Sarwar is over his predecessor, he's making no progress because Labour has a low, and gradually declining, ceiling of support. Left voters are predominantly pro-independence and the more elderly unionist ones are disappearing through, ahem, natural wastage

ydoethur said:

dodrade said:

Isn't it a little premature to be writing off a party launched less than a week ago?

Most of us wrote off CUK even before it was launched.

And we were right.

Perhaps Salmond should have called his party The Independence Group.

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

Travelodge Ilford...

April Fool!
.

dodrade said:

Isn't it a little premature to be writing off a party launched less than a week ago?

I’ve not written them off but history suggests that it’s incredibly difficult to start an electorally successful new party, particularly from a standing start. I think that Alba’s main problem is that it and its supporters moving force is detestation of Sturgeon and the SNP while they’re simultaneously trying to persuade SNP voters to give them their list vote. I’m not sure how that circle can be squared.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

Travelodge Ilford...

April Fool!
.

To be honest, I would stay somewhere cheaper (probably some great deals with no international tourists!) and blow the budget on dinner, tea at Fornums, Opera House etc...

Took my eldest daughter to get some toys for her new (very adorable) puppy

On the way we somehow got talking about cosmology. My older daughter is 14

Presuming she knew very little of the intricacies, I vaguely mentioned the infinite multiverse theory, expecting her to be gobsmacked or incomprehending or to revert to her default option of "Dad shut up stop talking bollocks"

Instead she said, quite calmly, "Yes but one of the problems with the infinite parallel universes theory is that there must be a universe where this theory does not apply, and thus there is a universe within the multiverse which has no multiverse, so how do you solve that paradox?"

I was simultaneously silenced, but also (without showing her) very very proud.

Then we got new puppy chews

Theuniondivvie said:

dodrade said:

Isn't it a little premature to be writing off a party launched less than a week ago?

I’ve not written them off but history suggests that it’s incredibly difficult to start an electorally successful new party, particularly from a standing start. I think that Alba’s main problem is that it and its supporters moving force is detestation of Sturgeon and the SNP while they’re simultaneously trying to persuade SNP voters to give them their list vote. I’m not sure how that circle can be squared.

I think that the other thing a party needs is an agenda, not just a has-been wanting a comeback.

IanB2 said:

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

You don’t need to pay anything like that to get somewhere decent. Do a search on one of the main booking websites, ideally via a cashback page like Quidco. Some special hotels to look at: 41, Charlotte St Hotel, the Soho Hotel, the Cadogan, the Langham, the Bloomsbury.

Those all sound like 4-bed House Designs on a slighly not-downmarket new estate in Milton Keynes, if you remove "Hotel".

My next stay in London will be in the Hilton where you take the private ferry. But not at £400 a night.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Took my eldest daughter to get some toys for her new (very adorable) puppy

On the way we somehow got talking about cosmology. My older daughter is 14

Presuming she knew very little of the intricacies, I vaguely mentioned the infinite multiverse theory, expecting her to be gobsmacked or incomprehending or to revert to her default option of "Dad shut up stop talking bollocks"

Instead she said, quite calmly, "Yes but one of the problems with the infinite parallel universes theory is that there must be a universe where this theory does not apply, and thus there is a universe within the multiverse which has no multiverse, so how do you solve that paradox?"

I was simultaneously silenced, but also (without showing her) very very proud.

Then we got new puppy chews

She's not correct. Because the universe is a subset of the multiverse.

That'll shut her up.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

Took my eldest daughter to get some toys for her new (very adorable) puppy

On the way we somehow got talking about cosmology. My older daughter is 14

Presuming she knew very little of the intricacies, I vaguely mentioned the infinite multiverse theory, expecting her to be gobsmacked or incomprehending or to revert to her default option of "Dad shut up stop talking bollocks"

Instead she said, quite calmly, "Yes but one of the problems with the infinite parallel universes theory is that there must be a universe where this theory does not apply, and thus there is a universe within the multiverse which has no multiverse, so how do you solve that paradox?"

I was simultaneously silenced, but also (without showing her) very very proud.

Then we got new puppy chews

Maybe it's a multi-puppy-chew-niverse?

Get her a copy of "The Planiverse" by A K Dewdney, to get the dimensions down to 2.

And some lettuces to deal with the cosmology.

MrEd said:

turbotubbs said:

So why isn’t this murder attracting the same opprobrium as that of Sarah Everard?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56569863
Genuine question as this seemed equally horrifying.

Agree but (1) the victim is not a white middle class woman living in Zones 1-2 London and working in a media industry job and (2) the perpetrator is an illegal asylum seeker who should have been kicked out of the country but wasn't so both the authorities and the left are not too keen on having the story being publicised.

The left, like the daily tabloid newspapers?

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Benpointer said:

A PB travel forum request:

I'm looking to book a few nights in a smart hotel in the central London in September to belatedly celebrate our ruby wedding anniversary. I'm thinking £400-£500 per night - a cut above our usual Novotel.

Anybody got any recommendations?

Thanks!

I stayed at a hotel called The Landmark last January, the Winter Gardens were cool, that’s the reason I booked it, and it’s convenient for Regents Park, Hampstead & the WestEnd shops. My girlfriend ordered a drink and the bottom fell out of the glass and soaked her clothes, which ruined the night a bit. I’m not a London hotel expert, the only other one I’ve stayed in is the Soho, which might be a bit young for you I’m guessing.

Here’s a pic of the Winter Gardens from my insta!

We had jewelry stolen by the housekeeping staff there, which rather put us off it.

Oh dear. Luckily my girlfriend left had her expensive stuff behind in the hospital where our son was born about two months earlier, and I don’t wear any, so we had none for them to steal!

Leon said:

Gardenwalker said:

As expected Alba is a damp squib.
I predicted as much.

It is REALLY hard to get over 5% as a new party, especially when your leader is a known (but legally unblemished) sex pest.

What is disappointing from a Unionist perspective is no obvious “bounce” for Anas Sarwar and little damage to the SNP. And the Greens appear completely unscathed.

No, it's gravy for unionists. The Nationalist cause is schismatized, and seems bitterly divided, and Boris can dismiss the new Holyrood as a gamed system

If Alba do this badly, Salmond has done terrible damage to indy. We shall see

The way this poll in the header looks, the embarrassing and degrading mess over the last months has not dampened enthusiasm for an SNP majority. The SNP are through the worst too and are likely to get stronger.

Re GFG / Greeensill, the other potential casualty out of all of this is Softbank. (Bear in mind that Softbank is the largest external shareholder in Greenshll.)

It appears that Greenshill lent $475m to a Softbank investment just months before its collapse. And that exactly none of that money was repaid.

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Gardenwalker said:

As expected Alba is a damp squib.
I predicted as much.

It is REALLY hard to get over 5% as a new party, especially when your leader is a known (but legally unblemished) sex pest.

What is disappointing from a Unionist perspective is no obvious “bounce” for Anas Sarwar and little damage to the SNP. And the Greens appear completely unscathed.

No, it's gravy for unionists. The Nationalist cause is schismatized, and seems bitterly divided, and Boris can dismiss the new Holyrood as a gamed system

If Alba do this badly, Salmond has done terrible damage to indy. We shall see

The way this poll in the header looks, the embarrassing and degrading mess over the last months has not dampened enthusiasm for an SNP majority. The SNP are through the worst too and are likely to get stronger.

Schisms are bad. I know you want the SNP to win so Scotland goes indy to punish us for voting Brexit, but, schisms are bad. They generally hinder the cause

It would be surprising, but not impossible, if this were an exception, but so far it looks like proving the rule

I readily admit that if Alba gets 15 seats on the List (and the SNP gets zillions of constituency seats) then that will boost the indy cause. Boris will still refuse a vote, but there is then a chance that Scotland will surge into passive mass resistance and Mahatama Gandhi stylee bullshit.

And then, after five years, the YES vote could be consistently over 60% and Britain is done for. Certainly possible

stodge said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

turbotubbs said:

So why isn’t this murder attracting the same opprobrium as that of Sarah Everard?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56569863
Genuine question as this seemed equally horrifying.

Agree but (1) the victim is not a white middle class woman living in Zones 1-2 London and working in a media industry job and (2) the perpetrator is an illegal asylum seeker who should have been kicked out of the country but wasn't so both the authorities and the left are not too keen on having the story being publicised.

The left, like the daily tabloid newspapers?

Plenty of coverage on the BBC and other media outlets. Not quite sure what point @MrEd is trying to make.

Lead story on main news of the day? I didn’t see it.

MrEd said:

turbotubbs said:

So why isn’t this murder attracting the same opprobrium as that of Sarah Everard?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56569863
Genuine question as this seemed equally horrifying.

Agree but (1) the victim is not a white middle class woman living in Zones 1-2 London and working in a media industry job and (2) the perpetrator is an illegal asylum seeker who should have been kicked out of the country but wasn't so both the authorities and the left are not too keen on having the story being publicised.

Point 1 is the first half of the explanation, but the second is that Sarah Everard was abducted. Lorraine Cox appears to have been persuaded to go back to her killer's home. Both were cruel murders, but the former involved, from the point of view of the media and the wider public that consume it, a more sympathetic victim and far more sensational circumstances.

If point 2 had anything to do with it then why would the majority of the press that is NOT particularly forgiving of failed asylum seekers being left at liberty to commit horrendous crimes not pick up the ball and run with this?

Whilst we are fortunate not to live in an atypically brutal society, people are nonetheless murdered regularly, and killings therefore need to be exceptional to achieve notoriety. The depressing monotony of young men stabbed to death on the streets, and women bludgeoned to death by violent partners at home, goes mostly unnoticed because society is used to it. Like deaths from Winter flu or road traffic accidents, if it doesn't involve you personally, it's just background noise. One column at the bottom of page 14 of a newspaper. Statistics.

stodge said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

turbotubbs said:

So why isn’t this murder attracting the same opprobrium as that of Sarah Everard?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56569863
Genuine question as this seemed equally horrifying.

Agree but (1) the victim is not a white middle class woman living in Zones 1-2 London and working in a media industry job and (2) the perpetrator is an illegal asylum seeker who should have been kicked out of the country but wasn't so both the authorities and the left are not too keen on having the story being publicised.

The left, like the daily tabloid newspapers?

Plenty of coverage on the BBC and other media outlets. Not quite sure what point @MrEd is trying to make.

There's this slightly irritating belief that is seen on all sides of the political spectrum that it's all a big conspiracy*.

The reality is that algorithms for selling advertising space, based on time to read story, engagement rates, shares, etc., determine what gets shown.

Sarah Eversted, for one reason or another got traction. This other story did not.

This was not to do with "The Left" covering it up. It was to do with which stories garnered click throughs and shares and sold advertising.

* See the Left blaming the media for covering up stories about Palestine... when the reality is that stories about Palestine don't sell advertising, when stories about Meghan do.

isam said:

“It is actually usually a large combination of factors, some of which are under our control, many of which are not. And more of it is chance than I think people are prepared to accept,” - Chris Whitty on the spread of Covid.

Pretty much what I thought really. He could be say the same about almost any aspect of life

Covid really is a lottery.

Mrs Foxy had it, I didn't in the same house. I saw a guy today who nearly died of it, in his fifties, who took a couple of months to be able to walk and speak.

turbotubbs said:

Lead story on main news of the day? I didn’t see it.

Doesn't have to be the main story to get coverage.

Should it have been the lead story of the day? That's an editorial decision for newspapers and the media. It's a terrible crime and yes of course it has been reported.

I'm still not quite sure what's being implied here.