politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South: The first seat where UKIP is the betting favo
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I've already said he'll serve 4.5 months, I said Huhne would serve 2 months when he was sentenced.state_go_away said:
I do wish the legal system could actually sort this out and announce the sentences people actually serve. God knows why we have this ridiculous system where the official sentence does not reflect err the sentence. Would save a whole load of confusion and jumping to wrong conclusions etcGadfly said:
To be fair, it is something of a minefield. Essentially, offenders sentenced between 12 weeks and 4 years for non-violent, non-drug and non-sexual offences, will serve around one quarter of their sentence behind bars. All other offenders will serve half of their sentence. Google Home Detention Curfew for the nitty gritty.Philip_Thompson said:
No the SENTENCE was 8 months, just as the SENTENCE for Coulson is 18 months.surbiton said:
8 weeks ? No, it was 8 months for both Mr and ex Mrs.Philip_Thompson said:
As far as total time served (which versus 8 weeks for an MP perverting the course of justice on a road safety issue) it seems reasonable.surbiton said:
I was referring to this.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're getting confused.surbiton said:Someone wrote "no one died".
4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.
8 months for passing speeding points.
No one died !
Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.Pulpstar said:4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.
Noone's died.
PS I had someone break into my home while I was sleeping (broke kitchen window to get in waking me up), I chased them out of the house and got their reg plate as they drove out. Burglar was arrested following week red handed in someone else's home and confessed to break and entering into 20 homes. Was sentence to community service and a 12 month suspended sentence - not a day to be served. Now I know which I think is more serious of the three offenses - and which is more likely to be repeated and it isn't phone hacking.
The TIME SERVED was 8 weeks I believe just like the TIME SERVED has been estimated as probably going to be ~4.5 months for Coulson.
You are comparing apples to oranges. Does that make it clear or does the difference between a SENTENCE and TIME SERVED need to be explained to you?
Its ridiculous that even on a well informed site like this nobody is sure what Andy Coulson will actually serve
HDC (or tagging) isn't guaranteed, but so long as Andy C is a good boy prison, he meets the criteria for it.
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Do you object to reports that the PM's pay is £142,500? Because working out what he takes home is a damn sight more difficult than translating prison sentences from gross to net.state_go_away said:
I do wish the legal system could actually sort this out and announce the sentences people actually serve. God knows why we have this ridiculous system where the official sentence does not reflect err the sentence. Would save a whole load of confusion and jumping to wrong conclusions etcGadfly said:
To be fair, it is something of a minefield. Essentially, offenders sentenced between 12 weeks and 4 years for non-violent, non-drug and non-sexual offences, will serve around one quarter of their sentence behind bars. All other offenders will serve half of their sentence. Google Home Detention Curfew for the nitty gritty.Philip_Thompson said:
No the SENTENCE was 8 months, just as the SENTENCE for Coulson is 18 months.surbiton said:
8 weeks ? No, it was 8 months for both Mr and ex Mrs.Philip_Thompson said:
As far as total time served (which versus 8 weeks for an MP perverting the course of justice on a road safety issue) it seems reasonable.surbiton said:
I was referring to this.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're getting confused.surbiton said:Someone wrote "no one died".
4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.
8 months for passing speeding points.
No one died !
Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.Pulpstar said:4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.
Noone's died.
PS I had someone break into my home while I was sleeping (broke kitchen window to get in waking me up), I chased them out of the house and got their reg plate as they drove out. Burglar was arrested following week red handed in someone else's home and confessed to break and entering into 20 homes. Was sentence to community service and a 12 month suspended sentence - not a day to be served. Now I know which I think is more serious of the three offenses - and which is more likely to be repeated and it isn't phone hacking.
The TIME SERVED was 8 weeks I believe just like the TIME SERVED has been estimated as probably going to be ~4.5 months for Coulson.
You are comparing apples to oranges. Does that make it clear or does the difference between a SENTENCE and TIME SERVED need to be explained to you?
Its ridiculous that even on a well informed site like this nobody is sure what Andy Coulson will actually serve
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And as I said I think 4.5 months is OK - Sentence should be announced as follows:
18 month sentence, of which at least 4.5 months will be spent in prison.0 -
Yes, who ever wins the next election will really have to implement some real cuts. Alarming how persistent our deficit is in the face of very strong growth and that debt to GDP ratio keeps creeping up.anotherDave said:
"...Britain still has one of the largest deficits in the world. Our deficit as a percentage of GDP is still about 6 per cent. France's is half that size and Germany's has almost been eliminated. "TGOHF said:On a cheerier note
Socialist France is rooked
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10944874/IMF-warns-of-negative-spiral-in-France-as-recession-looms-again.html
"The IMF said public debt should peak at 95pc of GDP next year but a “growth shock” would push it to 103pc by 2016. The Fund warned of a “negative spiral of low growth and falling inflation” that is pushing up real borrowing costs and further choking investment, already dismally weak. Core inflation was 0.3pc in May.
The economic relapse is a political disaster for Mr Hollande, already the least popular leader in modern times with a poll rating of 23pc, and reeling from a crushing defeat by the far-Right Front National in European elections"
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4137047.ece0 -
Oh dear me.TheScreamingEagles said:I love it when Labour MPs make predictions.
Sadiq Khan says expect a leadership election next year (for Lib Dems and Tories)
http://labourlist.org/2014/07/sadiq-khan-says-expect-a-leadership-election-next-year-for-lib-dems-and-tories/
Just wish he had said, soon there will be an election and labour will increase its majority.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
Good piece by the Professor in the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde.
Tracking the Polls: Steady Increase in Support for Yes over last nine months, according to New Method
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/07/tracking-the-polls-steady-increase-in-support-for-yes-over-last-nine-months-according-to-new-method/0 -
The figures are interesting, but opportunity for trans-community dating needs to exist first. As most ethnic minorities are urban populations, but a goodly percentage of white British live in rural areas or places like the West Country or East Anglia, there must be areas where trans cultural dating are impossible. In other words in Leicester it is easy, but in Devon or Norfolk much less easy to date a different ethnic group.Socrates said:The ONS today released some numbers today on inter-ethnic relationships, that makes for very interesting reading. I did a quick ratio of the share of each ethnic group dating someone from outside their group, relative to the share of the population that's outside their group. So in a colour blind society, these numbers should all be 1, and in a completely segregated society these numbers would all be 0:
White Irish: 0.70
Gypsy/Irish traveller: 0.50
Black Caribbean: 0.43
Arab 0.34
Chinese 0.30
White British: 0.22
Black African: 0.22
Indian: 0.12
Pakistani: 0.08
Bangladeshi: 0.07
I found particularly interesting that Irish travellers and gypsies, who I have always thought were very segregated are actually one of the most open groups with their relationships. As expected, the Irish and Afro-Caribbeans are very integrated. The indigenous White British don't mix very well, while the numbers for south Asians are very poor. It seems we have a long way to go to improve integration.0 -
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
I know , I was having a laugh( or thought I was ).LOLSmarmeron said:@malcolmg
Conformational bias, is when we give greater credence to "facts" that support what we already believe, and dismiss as irrelevant those which go against us.
Everyone does it, and in all walks of life, the trick is to realise you are falling prey to it and look again.
(Not on here of course, it would be no fun if we did)0 -
The judge might simply want to extend a rather fine lunch ....TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
I don't blame him, being in the same court room as the pervert Aussie fiddles with his didgeridoo isn't a prospect to be savoured.
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Naah, that's his extra leg.JackW said:
The judge might simply want to extend a rather fine lunch ....TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
I don't blame him, being in the same court room as the pervert Aussie fiddles with his didgeridoo isn't a prospect to be savoured.
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That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
I can't believe that the sentence will be non-custodial. It would look ill with the public.Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
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Or the judge has an old pal unexpectedly turned up for lunch, or there is a sporting fixture going on that the judge wants to watch or a hundred and one other possible reasons totally unconnected with the case.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
Years ago my wife was due to give evidence at a trial at Lewes Crown Court, but arrived home very, very early. The court had come back from lunch an finished evidence of the witness who had been in the box before hand. Then at 14:30 the judge said that the court would adjourn until the following day - according to counsel the test match had reached a critical point and the judge didn't want to miss the action (the old boy is, I think, still alive so I won't name him).0 -
It would be, but there are reasons that the judge could give a non custodial sentence.Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
The judge has already said to expect a custodial sentence so I don't think that will be happening. Will he get concurrent or consecutive (a la Clifford) sentences?Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
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@TheScreamingEagles - On reflection it might be better to delete your post and the replies.0
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Justice needs to be done and seen to be done, nobody ever said anything about it being swiftHurstLlama said:
Or the judge has an old pal unexpectedly turned up for lunch, or there is a sporting fixture going on that the judge wants to watch or a hundred and one other possible reasons totally unconnected with the case.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
Years ago my wife was due to give evidence at a trial at Lewes Crown Court, but arrived home very, very early. The court had come back from lunch an finished evidence of the witness who had been in the box before hand. Then at 14:30 the judge said that the court would adjourn until the following day - according to counsel the test match had reached a critical point and the judge didn't want to miss the action (the old boy is, I think, still alive so I won't name him). 0 -
Surely a judge takes into account the facts of the case and not what looks good with the public (or what the media think is the public's thoughts)? One hopes anywayToryJim said:
I can't believe that the sentence will be non-custodial. It would look ill with the public.Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
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I think he'd have to spend a lot of time explaining them but they'd still get lost in the tabloid hysteria.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would be, but there are reasons that the judge could give a non custodial sentence.Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
Yup - The Russell Brand - Spectator story is off limits.Richard_Nabavi said:@TheScreamingEagles - On reflection it might be better to delete your post and the replies.
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Its the day Vickburg surrendered and Grant effectively won the American Civil War.TheScreamingEagles said:For our American posters and cousins.
"Happy the day the British Empire decided India was more important than America day"0 -
Oh of course but reality is that most people seem to think that everyone should go away for life for everything if not be hanged if the option were available.state_go_away said:
Surely a judge takes into account the facts of the case and not what looks good with the public (or what the media think is the public's thoughts)? One hopes anywayToryJim said:
I can't believe that the sentence will be non-custodial. It would look ill with the public.Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
That newspaper piece is naughty - it was in fact Labour/Trot students who chased Mr F into the pub ... but that makes it all the more interesting Mr F has picked Glasgow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Won't it clash with the Orange Order shindig?isam said:
IIRC the OO Walk is in Edinburgh the Saturday before the referendum, so no clash in that geographical sense.
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http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/may/02/max-clifford-sentenced-eight-years-jail-indecently-assaulting-four-girlsToryJim said:
I think he'd have to spend a lot of time explaining them but they'd still get lost in the tabloid hysteria.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would be, but there are reasons that the judge could give a non custodial sentence.Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.
Probably the best guide to what is likely to happen, though several major adjustments need to be made.0 -
Looks like Rolf is getting carpeted by the judge from what I'm seeing on Twitter.0
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Sentencing is currently underwayTheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
@peterwalker99Gadfly said:
Sentencing is currently underwayTheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
Not sure its just those with the most animated opinions tend to get heard. Most people are content to leave it to the judgeToryJim said:
Oh of course but reality is that most people seem to think that everyone should go away for life for everything if not be hanged if the option were available.state_go_away said:
Surely a judge takes into account the facts of the case and not what looks good with the public (or what the media think is the public's thoughts)? One hopes anywayToryJim said:
I can't believe that the sentence will be non-custodial. It would look ill with the public.Pulpstar said:
That would be a complete disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
Getting off from a custodial sentence.ToryJim said:
He can't "get off" he's been convicted.TheScreamingEagles said:Rolf Harris sentencing moved to 1.45pm
He's either getting off, or the judge is looking at something severe.0 -
Yeah Rolf is going away for a very long time, judging by the Judge's remarks.0
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Can you tell what it is yet?TheScreamingEagles said:Yeah Rolf is going away for a very long time, judging by the Judge's remarks.
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O/T I couldn't help being amused by this, from the Beeb business page:
BT pension deal cuts longevity risk
The UK's biggest corporate final-salary pension scheme has struck a deal to protect itself against members living for longer than expected.
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Thanet South looks a three way tie (especially if Farage stands) - back the outsider ,Labour?0
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Sadiq Khan might be more usefully deployed trying to explain Labour's policies rather than making pointless predictions and handing out hostages to fortune. Is it that Labour are increasingly desperate and he's trying to shore up morale?
I'm beginning to wonder if Cameron really is a lucky politician. Just over 4 years ago Labour went into the GE knowing that they had an unelectable candidate for PM having been unwilling to depose him in the previous year. Are they repeating the whole process?0 -
Just watched the BBC piece on the aircraft carrier. It all seems a bit premature, we don't have any planes for it until 2019 at the earliest which means it is useless until then unless the French want to borrow it as a platform for their air power in NATO operations.0
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The French deficit is heading up - towards 4%. its growth forcast has been cut.anotherDave said:
"...Britain still has one of the largest deficits in the world. Our deficit as a percentage of GDP is still about 6 per cent. France's is half that size and Germany's has almost been eliminated. "TGOHF said:On a cheerier note
Socialist France is rooked
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10944874/IMF-warns-of-negative-spiral-in-France-as-recession-looms-again.html
"The IMF said public debt should peak at 95pc of GDP next year but a “growth shock” would push it to 103pc by 2016. The Fund warned of a “negative spiral of low growth and falling inflation” that is pushing up real borrowing costs and further choking investment, already dismally weak. Core inflation was 0.3pc in May.
The economic relapse is a political disaster for Mr Hollande, already the least popular leader in modern times with a poll rating of 23pc, and reeling from a crushing defeat by the far-Right Front National in European elections"
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4137047.ece
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2014/07/04/imf-cuts-french-growth-forecast-warns-on-deficit/
It hs missed its targets
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/us-france-budget-idUSBREA2U07D20140331
French debt is in the region of 95 percent of its gross domestic product. A little higher than ours.
The French NHS is funded from compulsory insurance as well as from the govt. I wonder if the French NHS deficit is included in the figures. I think the french NHS is running a deficit of 8 billion euros.0 -
Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond reportedly booed during naming of HMS Queen ElizabethTheuniondivvie said:
Scots boo their prime minister in one of his VERY few public appearances? Whatever next, a pm starts to defend the Union with every fibre of his being? No, I didn't think so.Philip_Thompson said:
Scots boo Tory?Theuniondivvie said:
Just to get the full sound picture..Scott_P said:@GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..
Severin Carrell @severincarrell 2 mins
Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers
Whatevers next? Scousers boo Mancs?0 -
Wouldn't a large emplyer such as BT be at less risk than a smaller employer of employees "living too long", as the mean extension in lifespan can be extrapolated and there should be less variance with more people ?Richard_Nabavi said:O/T I couldn't help being amused by this, from the Beeb business page:
BT pension deal cuts longevity risk
The UK's biggest corporate final-salary pension scheme has struck a deal to protect itself against members living for longer than expected.0 -
Harris is definitely going to gaol.0
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Not at 2-1.state_go_away said:Thanet South looks a three way tie (especially if Farage stands) - back the outsider ,Labour?
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Harris get total of 5 years 9 months.0
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Rolf Harris gets 5 years 9 months.
So he could be out in less than 3 years.0 -
Rolf goes down for 5 years and 9 months.0
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By my reckoning, he'll be out in May 2017.0
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2 years 10 months, 2 weeks in gaol ?0
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Is Rolf subject to being deported on completion of his sentence?0
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But not as funny as Coogan as the IRA leader on The Day Today who was forced to inhale helium to subtract credibility from his statementTheScreamingEagles said:
Kinda reminds of the story of the man who used to do Gerry Adams' voiceover workSouthamObserver said:Poor old Colin ...
http://www.fakefaces.co.uk/lookalikes.html?lookalike_id=672
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/tv-radio/being-gerry-adams-belfastbased-actor-conor-grimes-provided-the-voice-of-the-sinn-fein-leader-during-the-198894-broadcast-restrictions-9380642.html
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That's an interesting point, but I would have thought Devon or Norfolk populations are fairly small as a percentage of the white population. It also doesn't apply at all to the three groups at the bottom of that list.foxinsoxuk said:
The figures are interesting, but opportunity for trans-community dating needs to exist first. As most ethnic minorities are urban populations, but a goodly percentage of white British live in rural areas or places like the West Country or East Anglia, there must be areas where trans cultural dating are impossible. In other words in Leicester it is easy, but in Devon or Norfolk much less easy to date a different ethnic group.Socrates said:The ONS today released some numbers today on inter-ethnic relationships, that makes for very interesting reading. I did a quick ratio of the share of each ethnic group dating someone from outside their group, relative to the share of the population that's outside their group. So in a colour blind society, these numbers should all be 1, and in a completely segregated society these numbers would all be 0:
White Irish: 0.70
Gypsy/Irish traveller: 0.50
Black Caribbean: 0.43
Arab 0.34
Chinese 0.30
White British: 0.22
Black African: 0.22
Indian: 0.12
Pakistani: 0.08
Bangladeshi: 0.07
I found particularly interesting that Irish travellers and gypsies, who I have always thought were very segregated are actually one of the most open groups with their relationships. As expected, the Irish and Afro-Caribbeans are very integrated. The indigenous White British don't mix very well, while the numbers for south Asians are very poor. It seems we have a long way to go to improve integration.0 -
Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.0
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I would imagine his health will go downhill as swiftly as Stuart Halls, he's an old man now, might not make it out at all.TheScreamingEagles said:By my reckoning, he'll be out in May 2017.
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The Frog jets cannot use the QE - no catapults to launch them and no arrester wires to enable them to land. Design decisions made to save money meant that the original idea that "Cats and Traps" could be retrofitted went out of the window without anyone really noticing. The engineering and building of the QE has been a tremendous success. The project management and the political interference during the design stage was a total disgrace. Down, of course, to the treasury under the leadership of the malignant maniac Brown.MaxPB said:Just watched the BBC piece on the aircraft carrier. It all seems a bit premature, we don't have any planes for it until 2019 at the earliest which means it is useless until then unless the French want to borrow it as a platform for their air power in NATO operations.
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Nope, he's got family and established here.ToryJim said:Is Rolf subject to being deported on completion of his sentence?
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The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
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I don't see why we can't get rid of concurrent sentencing. "Two crimes for the price of one" shouldn't be part of our justice system.JackW said:0 -
Ah, the Tele, the surgers' house paper.fitalass said:Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond reportedly booed during naming of HMS Queen Elizabeth
PB Scottish Tories selectively highlight booing of Salmond.
I point out that both Salmond and Cameron were booed.
Of course the Cameron icon polishers will still be too cowardly to want their prime minister to be tested in front of ordinary Scottish voters.0 -
Oh I don't know . The judge would only be mistaken if he ignored the facts of the case and sentenced on what he would think would give him the best media outcome. Surely the cornerstone of justice is to sentence on the facts and not on what the media will saySpeedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
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It gives an idea of how a Jimmy Saville trial might have gone.JackW said:
The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
The media outcry might pressure the government to change the law on this.0 -
Because I get accused of cheating, I've scheduled the new thread to go up after 2pm.
So you can prep yourselves to be first, as I'm disappearing for the rest of the afternoon.0 -
I think it serves its uses, I think there are arguments either way. I think the teenage kid who gets caught having shoplifted on 30 occasions might feel extremely hard done by if he ends up doing a year for each consecutively.Socrates said:
I don't see why we can't get rid of concurrent sentencing. "Two crimes for the price of one" shouldn't be part of our justice system.JackW said:0 -
Life expectancy 3 years assuming good health and one "major life event".dyedwoolie said:
I would imagine his health will go downhill as swiftly as Stuart Halls, he's an old man now, might not make it out at all.TheScreamingEagles said:By my reckoning, he'll be out in May 2017.
Mind you the "calculator" is ridiculous, it says that JackW can expect to have died 22 years ago.
http://www.uwic.ac.uk/shss/dom/newweb/lifestyle/age_expectancy2.htm
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The twittersphere will not be happy with Rolf Harris’ prison sentence – earlier this morning they were calling for blood and appeared not to be unhappy unless he was hung, drawn and quartered.
No specifics, but there are a frighteningly large amount of really twisted people on twitter. : (
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Because people with a strong opinion tend to air their views on it and people who don't have a strong opinion or think the sentence is ok don't tend to shout about it it means that what the media think the 'public' are really caring about is distorted. Can be very dangerousstate_go_away said:
Oh I don't know . The judge would only be mistaken if he ignored the facts of the case and sentenced on what he would think would give him the best media outcome. Surely the cornerstone of justice is to sentence on the facts and not on what the media will saySpeedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
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That would be totally unacceptable. It would allow a government to change the law and have minor offenders (and I'm not talking about any of the current cases involving celebrities or that part of law) locked up for life for political expediency.Speedy said:
It gives an idea of how a Jimmy Saville trial might have gone.JackW said:
The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
The media outcry might pressure the government to change the law on this.
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Incorrect.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, he's got family and established here.ToryJim said:Is Rolf subject to being deported on completion of his sentence?
Harris remains an Australian citizen and will be subject to deportation on completion of sentence. Mitigating circumstance may however prevail.
The Oz authorities may also wish to extradite Harris for alleged offences down under .... so to speak.
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No legitimate government is going to retroactively upgrade sentencing.Speedy said:
It gives an idea of how a Jimmy Saville trial might have gone.JackW said:
The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
The media outcry might pressure the government to change the law on this.0 -
The American justice system has shown that consecutive sentencing has made no impact on reducing re-offending or acting as a deterrence.ToryJim said:
I think it serves its uses, I think there are arguments either way. I think the teenage kid who gets caught having shoplifted on 30 occasions might feel extremely hard done by if he ends up doing a year for each consecutively.Socrates said:
I don't see why we can't get rid of concurrent sentencing. "Two crimes for the price of one" shouldn't be part of our justice system.JackW said:0 -
I know, but he's unlikely to be deported because of the reasons I listed/the mitigation you mentioned.JackW said:
Incorrect.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, he's got family and established here.ToryJim said:Is Rolf subject to being deported on completion of his sentence?
Harris remains an Australian citizen and will be subject to deportation on completion of sentence. Mitigating circumstance may however prevail.
The Oz authorities may also wish to extradite Harris for alleged offences down under .... so to speak.
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Precisely.ToryJim said:
No legitimate government is going to retroactively upgrade sentencing.Speedy said:
It gives an idea of how a Jimmy Saville trial might have gone.JackW said:
The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
The media outcry might pressure the government to change the law on this.
Case in point - poll tax riots
Change the law to make maximum term for offences as part of the riots life
Imprison all those dissatisfied with the government for life.
Banana republic0 -
Consecutive sentencing can be a good option if used sparingly. For most multiple offences I think concurrent sentencing is the best option. If you try somebody for one offence and sentence you then give them a chance to think about what they have done and the consequences and give them a chance to not do it again. Obviously getting caught after multiple offences mean you do not get this opportunity and hence better to use concurrent rather than consecutiveTheScreamingEagles said:
The American justice system has shown that consecutive sentencing has made no impact on reducing re-offending or acting as a deterrence.ToryJim said:
I think it serves its uses, I think there are arguments either way. I think the teenage kid who gets caught having shoplifted on 30 occasions might feel extremely hard done by if he ends up doing a year for each consecutively.Socrates said:
I don't see why we can't get rid of concurrent sentencing. "Two crimes for the price of one" shouldn't be part of our justice system.JackW said:
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James Clappison, the Conservative MP for Hertsmere is to stand down at the next election after 23 years. Allegedly this is not an entirely voluntary move. Dirty work at the cross roads? Is the Cameron Clique lining up someone for this safe seat?0
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That doesn't mean its automatic and neither should it be.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know, but he's unlikely to be deported because of the reasons I listed/the mitigation you mentioned.JackW said:
Incorrect.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, he's got family and established here.ToryJim said:Is Rolf subject to being deported on completion of his sentence?
Harris remains an Australian citizen and will be subject to deportation on completion of sentence. Mitigating circumstance may however prevail.
The Oz authorities may also wish to extradite Harris for alleged offences down under .... so to speak.
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The government has faced growing pressure for sentencing reform by the press for quite some time now, this will only magnify it.dyedwoolie said:
That would be totally unacceptable. It would allow a government to change the law and have minor offenders (and I'm not talking about any of the current cases involving celebrities or that part of law) locked up for life for political expediency.Speedy said:
It gives an idea of how a Jimmy Saville trial might have gone.JackW said:
The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
The media outcry might pressure the government to change the law on this.
One of the cornerstones of social conservatism is complains of lax sentences for criminals (tough on crime), with an election in a few months that might turn into an issue especially with UKIP lurking around.0 -
Rolf played my Graduation Ball and did an extra set when Dannii Minogue effed off after only doing two songs.
I'm slightly disillusioned about the end of my three year binge now,0 -
5 years, 9 months, doesn't strike me as being unduly lenient, for these offences.0 -
I know , I was having a laugh( or thought I was ).LOLSmarmeron said:@malcolmg
Conformational bias, is when we give greater credence to "facts" that support what we already believe, and dismiss as irrelevant those which go against us.
Everyone does it, and in all walks of life, the trick is to realise you are falling prey to it and look again.
(Not on here of course, it would be no fun if we did)
TUD,Theuniondivvie said:
Ah, the Tele, the surgers' house paper.fitalass said:Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond reportedly booed during naming of HMS Queen Elizabeth
PB Scottish Tories selectively highlight booing of Salmond.
I point out that both Salmond and Cameron were booed.
Of course the Cameron icon polishers will still be too cowardly to want their prime minister to be tested in front of ordinary Scottish voters.
They cannot help themselves, between Fitalass and Scottp, what a pair of lapdogs.
I had replied to your earlier post re the high regard I hold Scottp in but it must have been too glowing much for the Moderator.0 -
This is all Watergate revisited anyway, it's the cover up that's going to kill them0
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But that is blanket, I think our approach of picking and choosing can be good. It means that you have a far more responsive justice system. Also I think the US justice system is plagued by more than simply their approach to multiple sentencing, it appears to me that their apparent failure to include rehabilitation is a massive problem.TheScreamingEagles said:
The American justice system has shown that consecutive sentencing has made no impact on reducing re-offending or acting as a deterrence.ToryJim said:
I think it serves its uses, I think there are arguments either way. I think the teenage kid who gets caught having shoplifted on 30 occasions might feel extremely hard done by if he ends up doing a year for each consecutively.Socrates said:
I don't see why we can't get rid of concurrent sentencing. "Two crimes for the price of one" shouldn't be part of our justice system.JackW said:0 -
But what about the ticket inspector uniforms ?
@BBCNormanS: The @rmtunion accuse Labour of "total cop out" over reports will not take back rail franchises into public ownership0 -
It is.ToryJim said:
But that is blanket, I think our approach of picking and choosing can be good. It means that you have a far more responsive justice system. Also I think the US justice system is plagued by more than simply their approach to multiple sentencing, it appears to me that their apparent failure to include rehabilitation is a massive problem.TheScreamingEagles said:
The American justice system has shown that consecutive sentencing has made no impact on reducing re-offending or acting as a deterrence.ToryJim said:
I think it serves its uses, I think there are arguments either way. I think the teenage kid who gets caught having shoplifted on 30 occasions might feel extremely hard done by if he ends up doing a year for each consecutively.Socrates said:
I don't see why we can't get rid of concurrent sentencing. "Two crimes for the price of one" shouldn't be part of our justice system.JackW said:0 -
Consecutive sentencing is problematic in that for larger and more serious crimes in multiple it can lead to an effective sentence of life without the possibility of parole which may be In excess of the maximum sentence for the crimes committed.
10 armed robberies each attracting a ten year sentence, to run consecutively against a 60 year old, for example0 -
I suspect that you are correct that he won't be sent packing but it would be nice to see just one person subject to penal transportation down under once moreTheScreamingEagles said:
I know, but he's unlikely to be deported because of the reasons I listed/the mitigation you mentioned.JackW said:
Incorrect.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, he's got family and established here.ToryJim said:Is Rolf subject to being deported on completion of his sentence?
Harris remains an Australian citizen and will be subject to deportation on completion of sentence. Mitigating circumstance may however prevail.
The Oz authorities may also wish to extradite Harris for alleged offences down under .... so to speak.
0 -
I fear I've died many times over those two decades and more but always whist watching the Scottish rugby team performing ....Ishmael_X said:
Life expectancy 3 years assuming good health and one "major life event".dyedwoolie said:
I would imagine his health will go downhill as swiftly as Stuart Halls, he's an old man now, might not make it out at all.TheScreamingEagles said:By my reckoning, he'll be out in May 2017.
Mind you the "calculator" is ridiculous, it says that JackW can expect to have died 22 years ago.
http://www.uwic.ac.uk/shss/dom/newweb/lifestyle/age_expectancy2.htm
But fear not .... I shall live again as we triumph at the World Cup next year ....
Just in case I'll be leaving the mausoleum doors open ....
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Source? Doubt Central Office (as was) would have had any involvement: long gone are the days when Constituency Associations would have deferred to the centre on putting pressure to ease out sitting MPs. So unless he has fallen out badly locally (which is unlikely) I imagine his retirement is voluntary as he announced a few days back.HurstLlama said:James Clappison, the Conservative MP for Hertsmere is to stand down at the next election after 23 years. Allegedly this is not an entirely voluntary move. Dirty work at the cross roads? Is the Cameron Clique lining up someone for this safe seat?
But maybe we will witness the Baron Clappers of Herstmere in the 2015 Dissolution Honours?
PS Our own Sean Fear is a past Chairman of the Hertsmere Association if I recall.0 -
Sentencing reform going forward is one thing, arbitrary uprating of historic sentencing options is tyrannical and would delegitimise any government that attempted it.Speedy said:
The government has faced growing pressure for sentencing reform by the press for quite some time now, this will only magnify it.dyedwoolie said:
That would be totally unacceptable. It would allow a government to change the law and have minor offenders (and I'm not talking about any of the current cases involving celebrities or that part of law) locked up for life for political expediency.Speedy said:
It gives an idea of how a Jimmy Saville trial might have gone.JackW said:
The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
The media outcry might pressure the government to change the law on this.
One of the cornerstones of social conservatism is complains of lax sentences for criminals (tough on crime), with an election in a few months that might turn into an issue especially with UKIP lurking around.0 -
Sorry I forgot the link,it s from the Speccie:JohnO said:
Source? Doubt Central Office (as was) would have had any involvement: long gone are the days when Constituency Associations would have deferred to the centre on putting pressure to ease out sitting MPs. So unless he has fallen out badly locally (which is unlikely) I imagine his retirement is voluntary as he announced a few days back.HurstLlama said:James Clappison, the Conservative MP for Hertsmere is to stand down at the next election after 23 years. Allegedly this is not an entirely voluntary move. Dirty work at the cross roads? Is the Cameron Clique lining up someone for this safe seat?
But maybe we will witness the Baron Clappers of Herstmere in the 2015 Dissolution Honours?
PS Our own Sean Fear is a past Chairman of the Hertsmere Association if I recall.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/james-clappison-didnt-stand-down-his-association-pushed-him/0 -
I had a quick look at the local election results which seemed very mixed.Nothing really much for any of the parties to shout about but some evidence that the L/D vote in patches is actually going up which confounds the polls.
Any gardeners will know what bindweed is.Trying to get of its' roots will drive you crazy.My grandfather,who was one, said that stuff would grow in hell.The L/Ds remind me of bindweed.You just cannot get rid of it.
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malcolmg said:
TUD,
They cannot help themselves, between Fitalass and Scottp, what a pair of lapdogs.
I had replied to your earlier post re the high regard I hold Scottp in but it must have been too glowing much for the Moderator.
Wow, it must have been fruity!
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If the electorate want to live in a banana republic, then so be it. As long as they don't come crying to me when they get life sentences for failure to pay their taxes five years ago, or an historic brick through a government building window.Speedy said:
The government has faced growing pressure for sentencing reform by the press for quite some time now, this will only magnify it.dyedwoolie said:
That would be totally unacceptable. It would allow a government to change the law and have minor offenders (and I'm not talking about any of the current cases involving celebrities or that part of law) locked up for life for political expediency.Speedy said:
It gives an idea of how a Jimmy Saville trial might have gone.JackW said:
The judge has to sentence under the guidelines applicable to when these old offences took place rather than the sterner guidelines of today.Speedy said:Harris will be out in less than 3 years, the public and the media will foam with anger, the judge might have been mistaken for handing such a light sentence in such a high profile case.
The media outcry might pressure the government to change the law on this.
One of the cornerstones of social conservatism is complains of lax sentences for criminals (tough on crime), with an election in a few months that might turn into an issue especially with UKIP lurking around.
You know the risk when you undertake the crime, it is entirely illegitimate to change the potential penalty for that crime later on and back date it. That way lies corruption and dictatorship.0 -
I wasn't aware that the Association hadn't readopted James. I do know that a lot of members were unhappy that he voted in favour of gay marriage, so that may be a factor.JohnO said:
Source? Doubt Central Office (as was) would have had any involvement: long gone are the days when Constituency Associations would have deferred to the centre on putting pressure to ease out sitting MPs. So unless he has fallen out badly locally (which is unlikely) I imagine his retirement is voluntary as he announced a few days back.HurstLlama said:James Clappison, the Conservative MP for Hertsmere is to stand down at the next election after 23 years. Allegedly this is not an entirely voluntary move. Dirty work at the cross roads? Is the Cameron Clique lining up someone for this safe seat?
But maybe we will witness the Baron Clappers of Herstmere in the 2015 Dissolution Honours?
PS Our own Sean Fear is a past Chairman of the Hertsmere Association if I recall.
0 -
Wow, is this how bad RN funding has got? HMS Quantitative Easing. I'd no idea. Still strangely appropriate really.HurstLlama said:
The Frog jets cannot use the QE - no catapults to launch them and no arrester wires to enable them to land. Design decisions made to save money meant that the original idea that "Cats and Traps" could be retrofitted went out of the window without anyone really noticing. The engineering and building of the QE has been a tremendous success. The project management and the political interference during the design stage was a total disgrace. Down, of course, to the treasury under the leadership of the malignant maniac Brown.MaxPB said:Just watched the BBC piece on the aircraft carrier. It all seems a bit premature, we don't have any planes for it until 2019 at the earliest which means it is useless until then unless the French want to borrow it as a platform for their air power in NATO operations.
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