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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South: The first seat where UKIP is the betting favo

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Rolf Harris sentencing be around midday.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211

    Financier said:

    OT
    As I told him that his council was effectively bankrupt, then he should do the same as any business would have to do and cut the number of senior staff and cut the salaries of the rest including pensions and cut councilors' allowances and expenses and at the same time look at ways of delivering the essential services more economically.

    Any business except a bank of course.
    LOL, they are so up their own arses they cannot see the wood for the trees
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Financier said:

    OT
    As I told him that his council was effectively bankrupt, then he should do the same as any business would have to do and cut the number of senior staff and cut the salaries of the rest including pensions and cut councilors' allowances and expenses and at the same time look at ways of delivering the essential services more economically.

    Any business except a bank of course.
    The banks have cut huge numbers of staff in recent years, including in management positions.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    Rolf will be sentenced shortly after noon.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    edited July 2014
    4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.

    Noone's died.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    The big question, will Dave go visit Andy in prison?

    What odds would you like?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Dave speaks about Andy.

    Right than justice has been done, and no one is above the law.

    Indeed - bad day for conspiracy theorists.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211
    Financier said:

    Has Salmond been fishing here recently?

    A 2.9 magnitude earthquake has been recorded in Fort William in the Scottish Highlands.

    The quake happened at about 18:36 GMT on Thursday evening in northern Scotland, the British Geological Survey (BGS) said.

    It was felt in a number of other areas including Glencoe, Oban and Lochaber, the BSG added on its website.

    The full list of areas that felt the earthquake, according to the BSG, was: Felt Fort William, Glenfinnan, Spean Bridge, Lochaber, Lochailort, Glencoe, Corpach, Kinlochleven, Acharacle, Roy Bridge, Duror of Appin, Gairlochy, Inverlochy, Kentellan, Kilmelford, Kinlocheil, Caol, Banavie, Lochyside, Strontian, Glenaladale, Onich, Ballachulish, Kinlochmoidart, Glenuig, Lismore and Oban.

    It is not the first time an earthquake has hit the area.

    In 2011, a stronger 3.5-magnitude struck 25 miles west of Fort William in Glenuig.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28155679

    Most likely the laughter after yesterdays pathetic , very poorly attended , Tory rally in Perth. Cameron the buffoon was laughed out of the country as ever.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    Everyone is guilty of that, conformational bias is a powerful anesthetic to rationality.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    So I'm not up on the law but I'm suspecting that Rolf's crimes won't actually accrue all that much in terms of sentence individually so suspect that the judge will run them consecutively rather than concurrently?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211
    LOL you could not make it up , the riff-raff and ne'er-do-wells that support NO is incredible. Every crook and loser in the business is lined up with them.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    ToryJim said:

    So I'm not up on the law but I'm suspecting that Rolf's crimes won't actually accrue all that much in terms of sentence individually so suspect that the judge will run them consecutively rather than concurrently?

    That's what Hizzoner in the Clifford trial did.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028

    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.

    Harris' youngest victim was 7 ?

    Isn't that 5 years ?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.

    Harris' youngest victim was 7 ?

    Isn't that 5 years ?
    Mentioned downthread that it is the tariff at the time of the crime.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    edited July 2014

    Dave speaks about Andy.

    Right than justice has been done, and no one is above the law.

    True.

    Re Leon Brittan and the dossier I reckon Dave will be saying the second part of that sentence a lot more in the next 6 months
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486

    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.

    No I think there will be outrage that hacking a phone is considered worse than touching up young girls and women.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    You're getting confused.

    Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The big question, will Dave go visit Andy in prison?

    Did he attend Rebekah's party ? After all she has no stain on her character ! LOL !!!

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    Did CH spend 8 months in pokey ?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Pulpstar said:

    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.

    Harris' youngest victim was 7 ?

    Isn't that 5 years ?
    Not being au fait with sex crimes sentencing, IIRC, he can only be sentenced to the sentencing of the time when the crimes were committed.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited July 2014
    @isam
    That would depend on who the eight names on the dossier were.
    You can't expect more than a "No comment" to avoid any future criminal proceeding being prejudiced.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    Totally fallacious comparison. 4 and a half months is potential time expected to be served (of an 18 month sentence), 8 months was total sentence (of which about 8 weeks was served I believe).

    So its 4 and a half months vs 8 weeks or 18 months vs 8 months however you want to legitimately compare it.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    You're getting confused.

    Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.
    I was referring to this.
    Pulpstar said:

    4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.

    Noone's died.



  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    O/T and to provide levity some unfortunately named politicos.

    http://www.ijreview.com/2014/07/152352-17-unfortunate-political-names/

    I think Young Boozer is an awesome name.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    surbiton said:

    The big question, will Dave go visit Andy in prison?

    Did he attend Rebekah's party ? After all she has no stain on her character ! LOL !!!

    I spoke too soon about conspiracy theorists..
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MrJones said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10944652/Tory-MP-allegedly-found-with-child-porn-in-1980s-faced-no-charges-police-told.html

    "A senior Tory politician said to be part of a child sex ring was allegedly stopped by a customs officer with child pornography videos but got off scot-free, police have been told."

    Was he an important Minister ?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver
    Of course you are right, an example needed to be made.
    It is just unfair on Coulson because,,,,,?

    Empathy, I guess. Similar background to me, working - broadly speaking - in the same area as me (I am a B2B journalist basically). I have worked in some poisonous places and they do things to you. It's no excuse, but it's the reality. He made some very bad mistakes, but he looks to me like someone who has been hung out to dry.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    You're getting confused.

    Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.
    I was referring to this.
    Pulpstar said:

    4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.

    Noone's died.



    As far as total time served (which versus 8 weeks for an MP perverting the course of justice on a road safety issue) it seems reasonable.

    PS I had someone break into my home while I was sleeping (broke kitchen window to get in waking me up), I chased them out of the house and got their reg plate as they drove out. Burglar was arrested following week red handed in someone else's home and confessed to break and entering into 20 homes. Was sentence to community service and a 12 month suspended sentence - not a day to be served. Now I know which I think is more serious of the three offenses - and which is more likely to be repeated and it isn't phone hacking.
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    18 months seems like a rather fair sentence for Coulson. Especially as he will cash in on all this when it's done. It needs to be a suitable punishment.

    If Rolf Harris gets less than that, it will be an outrage. He abused multiple girls and should get a separate sentence for each one. The man's scum.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,384
    Scott_P said:

    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..

    Just to get the full sound picture..

    Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 2 mins
    Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers






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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver
    And the "royal reporters" weren't?
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    People who say there was anti UKIP tactical voting want that to be the caase more than there is any evidence for it. What will happen the UKIP vote in the election is anyone's guess. I think places where they might win and safe seats it will hold up, but in marginals will mostly break Conservative, unless Osborne decides to run the election campaign on the same themes as last time.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_P said:

    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..

    Just to get the full sound picture..

    Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 2 mins
    Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers
    Scots boo Tory?

    Whatevers next? Scousers boo Mancs?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    LOL you could not make it up , the riff-raff and ne'er-do-wells that support NO is incredible. Every crook and loser in the business is lined up with them.
    There must be a lot of crooks and losers in Scotland if the 60% poll for no is right!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    I wonder whether Mr and Mrs Jack W will be having a Coulson In The Slammer Candlelight Supper this evening?

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    Dr Stephen Fisher's latest projection of 2015 GE seats distribution, based on UKPR's averaging of recent polls, is as follows (showing changes compared with last week) :

    Con ........... 305 seats ( +3 seats)
    Lab ........... 288 seats ( - 4 seats)
    LibDem ....... 28 seats (unchanged)
    Other .......... 29 seats (+1 seat)

    Total ......... 650 seats
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943

    Dr Stephen Fisher's latest projection of 2015 GE seats distribution, based on UKPR's averaging of recent polls, is as follows (showing changes compared with last week) :

    Con ........... 305 seats ( +3 seats)
    Lab ........... 288 seats ( - 4 seats)
    LibDem ....... 28 seats (unchanged)
    Other .......... 29 seats (+1 seat)

    Total ......... 650 seats

    That's a bit better. :D

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    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    edited July 2014
    FalseFlag said:

    People who say there was anti UKIP tactical voting want that to be the caase more than there is any evidence for it. What will happen the UKIP vote in the election is anyone's guess. I think places where they might win and safe seats it will hold up, but in marginals will mostly break Conservative, unless Osborne decides to run the election campaign on the same themes as last time.

    Imagine how credible a kipper would sound if Ukip went up 22% and the bnp went down 22% in an election, and I tried to say that the bnp votes had gone to labour and conservatives, and conservatives and labour had come to Ukip?

    Throw in the fact that 600 conservatives activists were in Newark and they apparently drove cons to Ukip but enticed labs and dems to conservative?

    Nah
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    You're getting confused.

    Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.
    I was referring to this.
    Pulpstar said:

    4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.

    Noone's died.



    As far as total time served (which versus 8 weeks for an MP perverting the course of justice on a road safety issue) it seems reasonable.

    PS I had someone break into my home while I was sleeping (broke kitchen window to get in waking me up), I chased them out of the house and got their reg plate as they drove out. Burglar was arrested following week red handed in someone else's home and confessed to break and entering into 20 homes. Was sentence to community service and a 12 month suspended sentence - not a day to be served. Now I know which I think is more serious of the three offenses - and which is more likely to be repeated and it isn't phone hacking.
    8 weeks ? No, it was 8 months for both Mr and ex Mrs.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Dr Stephen Fisher's latest projection of 2015 GE seats distribution, based on UKPR's averaging of recent polls, is as follows (showing changes compared with last week) :

    Con ........... 305 seats ( +3 seats)
    Lab ........... 288 seats ( - 4 seats)
    LibDem ....... 28 seats (unchanged)
    Other .......... 29 seats (+1 seat)

    Total ......... 650 seats

    Not much different to Jack's ARSE.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,384

    Scott_P said:

    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..

    Just to get the full sound picture..

    Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 2 mins
    Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers
    Scots boo Tory?

    Whatevers next? Scousers boo Mancs?
    Scots boo their prime minister in one of his VERY few public appearances? Whatever next, a pm starts to defend the Union with every fibre of his being? No, I didn't think so.

  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.

    Harris' youngest victim was 7 ?

    Isn't that 5 years ?
    Mentioned downthread that it is the tariff at the time of the crime.
    Bizarre rule I have always thought. Is the suggestion that he might not have donewhat he did had the current regime been in place? And couldn't the fact of harsher sentencing now be traded off against fact of the years of non-disgrace he has enjoyed (and his victims have suffered) between now and then?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    You're getting confused.

    Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.
    I was referring to this.
    Pulpstar said:

    4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.

    Noone's died.



    As far as total time served (which versus 8 weeks for an MP perverting the course of justice on a road safety issue) it seems reasonable.

    PS I had someone break into my home while I was sleeping (broke kitchen window to get in waking me up), I chased them out of the house and got their reg plate as they drove out. Burglar was arrested following week red handed in someone else's home and confessed to break and entering into 20 homes. Was sentence to community service and a 12 month suspended sentence - not a day to be served. Now I know which I think is more serious of the three offenses - and which is more likely to be repeated and it isn't phone hacking.
    8 weeks ? No, it was 8 months for both Mr and ex Mrs.
    No the SENTENCE was 8 months, just as the SENTENCE for Coulson is 18 months.

    The TIME SERVED was 8 weeks I believe just like the TIME SERVED has been estimated as probably going to be ~4.5 months for Coulson.

    You are comparing apples to oranges. Does that make it clear or does the difference between a SENTENCE and TIME SERVED need to be explained to you?

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    And the BBC stops live coverage with a few minutes to go, for reasons that are not explained.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Dr Stephen Fisher's latest projection of 2015 GE seats distribution, based on UKPR's averaging of recent polls, is as follows (showing changes compared with last week) :

    Con ........... 305 seats ( +3 seats)
    Lab ........... 288 seats ( - 4 seats)
    LibDem ....... 28 seats (unchanged)
    Other .......... 29 seats (+1 seat)

    Total ......... 650 seats

    Not much different to Jack's ARSE.
    Now you come to mention it, have you ever seen Stephen Fisher and Jack's ARSE in the same room together ..... NO? ...... I thought not.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ishmael_X said:


    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.

    Harris' youngest victim was 7 ?

    Isn't that 5 years ?
    Mentioned downthread that it is the tariff at the time of the crime.
    Bizarre rule I have always thought. Is the suggestion that he might not have donewhat he did had the current regime been in place? And couldn't the fact of harsher sentencing now be traded off against fact of the years of non-disgrace he has enjoyed (and his victims have suffered) between now and then?
    Prevents cops waiting until a tariff change before arrest I suppose.

  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Scott_P said:

    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..

    Just to get the full sound picture..

    Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 2 mins
    Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers
    Scots boo Tory?

    Whatevers next? Scousers boo Mancs?
    Scots boo their prime minister in one of his VERY few public appearances? Whatever next, a pm starts to defend the Union with every fibre of his being? No, I didn't think so.

    Would Cameron passionately defending the Union in Scotland not drive the Yes vote sharply up? Or at least be as likely to have that effect as the opposite?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Ishmael_X said:


    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is going to sound incredibly tactless, but there's no other way I can put this, so I apologise if this offends.

    If Rolf Harris is sentenced to less than 18months, then Andy Coulson's going to get a lot of sympathy.

    Harris' youngest victim was 7 ?

    Isn't that 5 years ?
    Mentioned downthread that it is the tariff at the time of the crime.
    Bizarre rule I have always thought. Is the suggestion that he might not have donewhat he did had the current regime been in place? And couldn't the fact of harsher sentencing now be traded off against fact of the years of non-disgrace he has enjoyed (and his victims have suffered) between now and then?
    To be devil's advocate in an extreme hypothesis had what he did at the time been legal then should he later be convicted based on a future change in the law? That is not the way our legal system operates.

    The guy should rot, abusing children should be life IMO. But that's not the law, pathetic as that is.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Reading the IMF report about France. It's pretty glum. Nods to all of the stuff we talked about a few days earlier, stagnant labour market, cosseting of the public sector, choking off private enterprise. Startling that the state now accounts for 58% of national output and taxes are equivalent to 54% of GDP. The French economy should serve as a warning to any politician wanting to go down the anti-globalisation path. It is not sustainable in the long term to deny globalisation.

    Worse still they say that French CPI is 0.3% YoY, so not only are they looking at zero growth, they are also heading for a debt deflation trap. They desperately need to fix fiscal and monetary policy to accommodate inflation of over 1%. UK GDP:Debt is stagnant partly because the deficit is reducing, but also because we have core inflation and economic growth so our nominal GDP is rising at a rate close to the size of our deficit meaning we add just 1-2% debt to our ratio per year even with a deficit of 6.5%. In France, a contraction plus deflation could mean a primary deficit of 4% adds 7-8% to their indebtedness per year, pushing their overall indebtedness to unsustainable levels. The ECB may be promoting the carry trade to banks as an easy profit, but at some stage even that will become risky.

    There is no easy fix either according to the IMF, supply side reforms would take 3-4 years to feed through (see Spain and Ireland), there is no room left for fiscal stimulus and no appetite for the kind of monetary stimulus required (QE equivalent to a third of GDP and negative rates would be my guess). What's worse is that Hollande inherited a growing economy which was moving the state burden to below 50% of GDP, but his actions have reversed that and now it looks like there is no way back on the right path. While the IMF have not made a final judgement on what will happen, one can surmise from their report that France will be in need of a bailout some time next year of they can't magic up GDP growth over the next 12 months. If their economy contracts as I expect it to then it could be sooner than that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    malcolmg said:

    LOL you could not make it up , the riff-raff and ne'er-do-wells that support NO is incredible. Every crook and loser in the business is lined up with them.
    You could argue that Scottish Independence is such a bad idea, that the Orange Order and The Pope have joined forces to oppose it.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    On a cheerier note ;)

    Socialist France is rooked

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10944874/IMF-warns-of-negative-spiral-in-France-as-recession-looms-again.html

    "The IMF said public debt should peak at 95pc of GDP next year but a “growth shock” would push it to 103pc by 2016. The Fund warned of a “negative spiral of low growth and falling inflation” that is pushing up real borrowing costs and further choking investment, already dismally weak. Core inflation was 0.3pc in May.

    The economic relapse is a political disaster for Mr Hollande, already the least popular leader in modern times with a poll rating of 23pc, and reeling from a crushing defeat by the far-Right Front National in European elections"
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,384
    Ishmael_X said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..

    Just to get the full sound picture..

    Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 2 mins
    Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers
    Scots boo Tory?

    Whatevers next? Scousers boo Mancs?
    Scots boo their prime minister in one of his VERY few public appearances? Whatever next, a pm starts to defend the Union with every fibre of his being? No, I didn't think so.

    Would Cameron passionately defending the Union in Scotland not drive the Yes vote sharply up? Or at least be as likely to have that effect as the opposite?
    Very possibly, but I'm not suggesting a Cameron fest, and we all know he's not going to debate Salmond. However I think on a point of principle a defence of his vision of the Union and a Q&A session with a public audience is the least Cameron could do.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Today's world cup tips.

    Backed Germany to win in 90 mins (at 9/5) hedged that with it France to qualify at 11/10

    Backed Colombia to win in 90 mins and to qualify, and James Rodriguez to be FGS.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ishmael_X said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..

    Just to get the full sound picture..

    Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 2 mins
    Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers
    Scots boo Tory?

    Whatevers next? Scousers boo Mancs?
    Scots boo their prime minister in one of his VERY few public appearances? Whatever next, a pm starts to defend the Union with every fibre of his being? No, I didn't think so.

    Would Cameron passionately defending the Union in Scotland not drive the Yes vote sharply up? Or at least be as likely to have that effect as the opposite?

    No - George O and Carney won the referendum with the no pound for you laddie currency interventions - burst the YES balloon.

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TGOHF said:

    On a cheerier note ;)

    Socialist France is rooked

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10944874/IMF-warns-of-negative-spiral-in-France-as-recession-looms-again.html

    "The IMF said public debt should peak at 95pc of GDP next year but a “growth shock” would push it to 103pc by 2016. The Fund warned of a “negative spiral of low growth and falling inflation” that is pushing up real borrowing costs and further choking investment, already dismally weak. Core inflation was 0.3pc in May.

    The economic relapse is a political disaster for Mr Hollande, already the least popular leader in modern times with a poll rating of 23pc, and reeling from a crushing defeat by the far-Right Front National in European elections"

    "...Britain still has one of the largest deficits in the world. Our deficit as a percentage of GDP is still about 6 per cent. France's is half that size and Germany's has almost been eliminated. "

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4137047.ece
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211

    isam said:
    Fair play to him for coming back for seconds. The Unionist establishment won't like this sort of off-piste activity.

    The BettertogetherUKOKNothanks preference is to attend invitation-only events at secret locations, e.g. Dave yesterday. Even then it looks as if they had to drug the audience into servility.

    http://tinyurl.com/qjpzdol



    They always have such positive cheery smiling audiences.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    On the upside, a French collapse could lead to a wave of privatisations in France of state owned assets and a sell off of their remaining "golden stakes" in large companies. Something the EU have not addressed over the last 20 years could finally get fixed.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,222
    For those who say there is no tactical voting against individual candidates, can I just say two words:

    Lembit Opik

    I might even have voted Green to unseat him, so unseemly was his presence in the House of Commons.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211

    If Scotland were leaving AIUI strictly they would still be entitled to vote in 2015 but GOK what the prospect of separation would do to voting intentions.

    Yes, the election would of course go ahead as normal - after all they'd still be in the UK at the time of the election. In practice, I would have thought the effect would be a big boost to the SNP at the expense of Labour, since Scots would effectively be voting for a group of MPs to represent their interests in the last few months before leaving, and it would seem eccentric in such a scenario to send MPs from a unionist party to Westminster.
    Would many people even bother voting
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,384
    edited July 2014

    malcolmg said:

    LOL you could not make it up , the riff-raff and ne'er-do-wells that support NO is incredible. Every crook and loser in the business is lined up with them.
    You could argue that Scottish Independence is such a bad idea, that the Orange Order and The Pope have joined forces to oppose it.

    Just like they did at the Battle of the Boyne. Telling that to Orangemen winds them up almost as much as suggesting King Billy was a lover of gentlemen (make sure you've scoped out the pub exit before doing this).
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    rcs1000 said:

    For those who say there is no tactical voting against individual candidates, can I just say two words:

    Lembit Opik

    I might even have voted Green to unseat him, so unseemly was his presence in the House of Commons.

    You rotter.

    We need more Lembits in parliament.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    malcolmg said:

    If Scotland were leaving AIUI strictly they would still be entitled to vote in 2015 but GOK what the prospect of separation would do to voting intentions.

    Yes, the election would of course go ahead as normal - after all they'd still be in the UK at the time of the election. In practice, I would have thought the effect would be a big boost to the SNP at the expense of Labour, since Scots would effectively be voting for a group of MPs to represent their interests in the last few months before leaving, and it would seem eccentric in such a scenario to send MPs from a unionist party to Westminster.
    Would many people even bother voting
    That's a good question. Dunno.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211
    Smarmeron said:

    @malcolmg
    Everyone is guilty of that, conformational bias is a powerful anesthetic to rationality.

    Smarmeron, I would need a few beers to take that one in, LOL
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    FalseFlag said:

    What will happen the UKIP vote in the election is anyone's guess. I think places where they might win and safe seats it will hold up, but in marginals will mostly break Conservative, unless Osborne decides to run the election campaign on the same themes as last time.

    I think the gov't passing powers over Justice and Home Affairs to the EU later this month could increase the number of Con>UKIP switchers. It should at least make current-UKIP less likely to switch to the Conservatives.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    MaxPB said:

    On the upside, a French collapse could lead to a wave of privatisations in France of state owned assets and a sell off of their remaining "golden stakes" in large companies. Something the EU have not addressed over the last 20 years could finally get fixed.

    Well I'm sure something will give sooner or later, the trouble is that historically the French are the most likely to fish on the extremes. In the 30s if I remember accurately they swung wildly between ultra-nationalism and full on communism and the moderates were essentially frozen out.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698

    malcolmg said:

    LOL you could not make it up , the riff-raff and ne'er-do-wells that support NO is incredible. Every crook and loser in the business is lined up with them.
    You could argue that Scottish Independence is such a bad idea, that the Orange Order and The Pope have joined forces to oppose it.

    Just like they did at the Battle of the Boyne. Telling that to Orangemen winds them up almost as much as suggesting King Billy was a lover of gentlemen (make sure you've scoped the pub exit before doing this).
    I'll go to Northern Ireland next week and remind them when they do their marches.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,211
    Ishmael_X said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GeorgeWParker: Gentle booing by some dockyard workers and families as Alex Salmond appears on big screen at Rosyth at aircraft carrier launch..

    Just to get the full sound picture..

    Severin Carrell ‏@severincarrell 2 mins
    Some mild booing of @AlexSalmond and @David_Cameron by #Rosyth dockyard workers at HMS Queen Elizabeth naming ceremony #QECarriers
    Scots boo Tory?

    Whatevers next? Scousers boo Mancs?
    Scots boo their prime minister in one of his VERY few public appearances? Whatever next, a pm starts to defend the Union with every fibre of his being? No, I didn't think so.

    Would Cameron passionately defending the Union in Scotland not drive the Yes vote sharply up? Or at least be as likely to have that effect as the opposite?
    It would be nice if any of the unionists could have a real public meeting and debate their position. Lying to hand pick audiences behind closed doors does not make their position look very honest.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. Jim, be fair. They did move to the right in the 40s.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    edited July 2014
    For our American posters and cousins.

    "Happy the day the British Empire decided India was more important than America day"
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who say there is no tactical voting against individual candidates, can I just say two words:

    Lembit Opik

    I might even have voted Green to unseat him, so unseemly was his presence in the House of Commons.

    You rotter.

    We need more Lembits in parliament.
    We really don't.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    ToryJim said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who say there is no tactical voting against individual candidates, can I just say two words:

    Lembit Opik

    I might even have voted Green to unseat him, so unseemly was his presence in the House of Commons.

    You rotter.

    We need more Lembits in parliament.
    We really don't.
    We complain about boring identikit politicians, then when we get Lembit, we complain.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486

    Mr. Jim, be fair. They did move to the right in the 40s.

    Mr Dancer yes Petain kind of ruined his good work at Verdun by becoming Chief Collabarateur.
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    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    If Farage chooses to play the national stereotype card again during the GE campaign then I would vote tactically Lab or Lib Dem if needed... And iSam don't bother telling me again that the Romanian jibe was OK because opinion polls show we all harbour nationality prejudices... maybe so but we don't choose to foster those prejudices in order to win votes
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Jim, be fair. They did move to the right in the 40s.

    Mr Dancer yes Petain kind of ruined his good work at Verdun by becoming Chief Collabarateur.
    Well what do you expect from a nation of collaborators?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    edited July 2014

    ToryJim said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who say there is no tactical voting against individual candidates, can I just say two words:

    Lembit Opik

    I might even have voted Green to unseat him, so unseemly was his presence in the House of Commons.

    You rotter.

    We need more Lembits in parliament.
    We really don't.
    We complain about boring identikit politicians, then when we get Lembit, we complain.
    Oh you can be an interesting non-identikit politician without being a grade A twat. I'm sorry Lembit was egregiously unsuitable to be an MP and his antics were frankly disreputable to politics.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    You're getting confused.

    Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.
    I was referring to this.
    Pulpstar said:

    4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.

    Noone's died.



    As far as total time served (which versus 8 weeks for an MP perverting the course of justice on a road safety issue) it seems reasonable.

    PS I had someone break into my home while I was sleeping (broke kitchen window to get in waking me up), I chased them out of the house and got their reg plate as they drove out. Burglar was arrested following week red handed in someone else's home and confessed to break and entering into 20 homes. Was sentence to community service and a 12 month suspended sentence - not a day to be served. Now I know which I think is more serious of the three offenses - and which is more likely to be repeated and it isn't phone hacking.
    8 weeks ? No, it was 8 months for both Mr and ex Mrs.
    No the SENTENCE was 8 months, just as the SENTENCE for Coulson is 18 months.

    The TIME SERVED was 8 weeks I believe just like the TIME SERVED has been estimated as probably going to be ~4.5 months for Coulson.

    You are comparing apples to oranges. Does that make it clear or does the difference between a SENTENCE and TIME SERVED need to be explained to you?

    To be fair, it is something of a minefield. Essentially, offenders sentenced between 12 weeks and 4 years for non-violent, non-drug and non-sexual offences, will serve around one quarter of their sentence behind bars. All other offenders will serve half of their sentence. Google Home Detention Curfew for the nitty gritty.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,222
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who say there is no tactical voting against individual candidates, can I just say two words:

    Lembit Opik

    I might even have voted Green to unseat him, so unseemly was his presence in the House of Commons.

    You rotter.

    We need more Lembits in parliament.
    We really don't.
    We complain about boring identikit politicians, then when we get Lembit, we complain.
    Oh you can be an interesting non-identikit politician without being a grade A twat. I'm sorry Lembit was egregiously unsuitable to be an MP and his antics were frankly disreputable to politics.
    Hear, hear.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2014
    ToryJim said:

    Oh you can be an interesting non-identikit politician without being a grade A twat. I'm sorry Lembit was egregiously unsuitable to be an MP and his antics were frankly disreputable to politics.

    But aren't we supposed to want politicians who are more representative of the general population? So maybe we need some all-twat shortlists to ensure we get a better balance.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
    It is now past noon so we should be able to tell what it is soon...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    edited July 2014

    FalseFlag said:

    What will happen the UKIP vote in the election is anyone's guess. I think places where they might win and safe seats it will hold up, but in marginals will mostly break Conservative, unless Osborne decides to run the election campaign on the same themes as last time.

    I think the gov't passing powers over Justice and Home Affairs to the EU later this month could increase the number of Con>UKIP switchers. It should at least make current-UKIP less likely to switch to the Conservatives.
    Hitchens hit the nail on the head on QT last night... If Cameron was at all euro sceptic he would excercise our right to ignore the European arrest warrant... We are exempt if we want to be

    But he is a rabid europhile just like Clegg and Miliband and has no intention of doing anything except campaign for us to stay in and be governed by EU law

    At least Clegg and Miliband admit it
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    Nick Clegg ‏@nick_clegg 35s

    Even the Black Prince is getting into the swing of things in Leeds for @letouryorkshire #tourdefrance

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrsfG_8CAAEBS7K.jpg
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486

    ToryJim said:

    Oh you can be an interesting non-identikit politician without being a grade A twat. I'm sorry Lembit was egregiously unsuitable to be an MP and his antics were frankly disreputable to politics.

    But aren't we supposed to want politicians who are more representative of the general population? So maybe we need some all-twat shortlists to ensure we get a better balance.
    Ah but you are falling into the trap of thinking that representation should be demographically based and not interest based. I elect an MP to pursue and uphold my interests not to merely reflect certain characteristics of mine.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @malcolmg
    Conformational bias, is when we give greater credence to "facts" that support what we already believe, and dismiss as irrelevant those which go against us.
    Everyone does it, and in all walks of life, the trick is to realise you are falling prey to it and look again.

    (Not on here of course, it would be no fun if we did)
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,427
    rcs1000 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For those who say there is no tactical voting against individual candidates, can I just say two words:

    Lembit Opik

    I might even have voted Green to unseat him, so unseemly was his presence in the House of Commons.

    You rotter.

    We need more Lembits in parliament.
    We really don't.
    We complain about boring identikit politicians, then when we get Lembit, we complain.
    Oh you can be an interesting non-identikit politician without being a grade A twat. I'm sorry Lembit was egregiously unsuitable to be an MP and his antics were frankly disreputable to politics.
    Hear, hear.
    Why what's so wrong with Oliver Letwin?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,486
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Smarmeron said:

    @malcolmg
    Conformational bias, is when we give greater credence to "facts" that support what we already believe, and dismiss as irrelevant those which go against us.
    Everyone does it, and in all walks of life, the trick is to realise you are falling prey to it and look again.

    (Not on here of course, it would be no fun if we did)

    That's interesting.

    How does it differ from confirmation bias?

  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,427
    edited July 2014
    Gadfly said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Someone wrote "no one died".

    4 and a half months for hacking into hundreds of emails including those of kidnapped/feared dead people.

    8 months for passing speeding points.

    No one died !

    You're getting confused.

    Andy Coulson received 18months, Chris Huhne received 8 months.
    I was referring to this.
    Pulpstar said:

    4 and a half months sounds about right for Coulson to my mind.

    Noone's died.



    As far as total time served (which versus 8 weeks for an MP perverting the course of justice on a road safety issue) it seems reasonable.

    PS I had someone break into my home while I was sleeping (broke kitchen window to get in waking me up), I chased them out of the house and got their reg plate as they drove out. Burglar was arrested following week red handed in someone else's home and confessed to break and entering into 20 homes. Was sentence to community service and a 12 month suspended sentence - not a day to be served. Now I know which I think is more serious of the three offenses - and which is more likely to be repeated and it isn't phone hacking.
    8 weeks ? No, it was 8 months for both Mr and ex Mrs.
    No the SENTENCE was 8 months, just as the SENTENCE for Coulson is 18 months.

    The TIME SERVED was 8 weeks I believe just like the TIME SERVED has been estimated as probably going to be ~4.5 months for Coulson.

    You are comparing apples to oranges. Does that make it clear or does the difference between a SENTENCE and TIME SERVED need to be explained to you?

    To be fair, it is something of a minefield. Essentially, offenders sentenced between 12 weeks and 4 years for non-violent, non-drug and non-sexual offences, will serve around one quarter of their sentence behind bars. All other offenders will serve half of their sentence. Google Home Detention Curfew for the nitty gritty.
    I do wish the legal system could actually sort this out and announce the sentences people actually serve. God knows why we have this ridiculous system where the official sentence does not reflect err the sentence. Would save a whole load of confusion and jumping to wrong conclusions etc

    Its ridiculous that even on a well informed site like this nobody is sure what Andy Coulson will actually serve
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Ishmael_X
    One is spelled correctly and the other isn't.
    I shall return to school under Gove's new regime for re-education.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    WHAT!

    You'd have to be drunker than Charles Kennedy to think that was Charles Kennedy
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    TGOHF said:

    Dr Stephen Fisher's latest projection of 2015 GE seats distribution, based on UKPR's averaging of recent polls, is as follows (showing changes compared with last week) :

    Con ........... 305 seats ( +3 seats)
    Lab ........... 288 seats ( - 4 seats)
    LibDem ....... 28 seats (unchanged)
    Other .......... 29 seats (+1 seat)

    Total ......... 650 seats

    Not much different to Jack's ARSE.
    Now you come to mention it, have you ever seen Stephen Fisher and Jack's ARSE in the same room together ..... NO? ...... I thought not.
    Neither have I ....

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,698
    I love it when Labour MPs make predictions.

    Sadiq Khan says expect a leadership election next year (for Lib Dems and Tories)

    http://labourlist.org/2014/07/sadiq-khan-says-expect-a-leadership-election-next-year-for-lib-dems-and-tories/

    Just wish he had said, soon there will be an election and labour will increase its majority.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
This discussion has been closed.