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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South: The first seat where UKIP is the betting favo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South: The first seat where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015
At the time of the Newark by-election Nigel Farage indicated that he’d be announcing which seat he’d contest at GE2015 by “the end of the month”.
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Lab .... 36%
Con .... 35%
LD ....... 8%
UKIP ... 12%
Crossover looms!
YouGov asked which UK political leaders since 1997 are considered 'cool' - noting their efforts to ingratiate themselves with pop, acting, film stars etc.
Most cool are Cameron and Blair with 27% viewing them as 'cool' and 63% as 'uncool' leaving them with a negative rating of 36,
They are followed in increasing uncoolness by:
Farage, Charles Kennedy, Hague, Menzies Campbell, Clegg, Miliband, IDS, Howard and the most uncool being Gordon Brown with a negative rating of 75.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/03/cool-britannia-not-politicians-anyway/
As the private sector is being looked at as the source of new jobs, which of our political
parties are seen as business friendly compared to their status about three years ago.
66% see the Cons as business friendly whilst 27% see the same for Labour - not much change for Labour since 2011. In fact more Labour supporters see the Cons as being business friendly than their own party.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/03/only-27-say-labour-are-pro-business/
The labour PPC in Thanet South is a 24 year old boy, the Tories are struggling to find a credible candidate, Farage is a shoo in.
Odd to think of Ming as 'more cool' than someone nearly 30 years younger than him. - I wonder if that's down to him representing GB at the 64 Olympics?
"A senior Tory politician said to be part of a child sex ring was allegedly stopped by a customs officer with child pornography videos but got off scot-free, police have been told."
What has become a feature of the high profile sex abuse cases is that when one victim has come forward publicly, others have followed - often many others. If there is something to this one, it's highly likely that the same thing would follow. But this kind of whispered hearsay rumour does no-one any favours.
I think UKIP will gain no seats next May, but Shadsys odds on this are not too tempting. As far as constituency bets go, I will do it closer to the time when the candidates are selected. The odds are too short on most likely winners and I do not want to tie up too much cash.
If Farage stands in Thanet South he'll enjoy a huge campaign advantage as leader of UKIP. Additionally he'll have the advantage of a split opposition in the seat. Even with UKIP at 8/12% of the national vote they'll have a few hot spots with Thanet South being one.
If Farage stands in Thanet South he will be odds on favourite to win.
Kip YG scores last week : 15 15 14 13 14
Junckered.
This kind of innuendo and smear by association* is, frankly, disgraceful behaviour.
* For Kippers who complain that they are regularly smeared, *this* is what a smear looks like
edit: the last line of the article refers to him as a "former" Tory MP.
This week publlshed:13,14,16,13
Last week published:16,20,18,17,18
If they have gained support from being perceived as 'standing up to the EU', they're likely to lose those gains by being revealed to be in favour of passing power to the EU.
Off topic, second time this week YouGov have Tories on 35%, which hasn't happened for a while, and govt approval at its best since the beginning of May.
The site also lists the final three candidates which were shortlisted on 28th June:
Prospective Parliamentary Candidate
On Saturday 28th June the Executive Council of the Association shortlisted three prospective candidates to go forward to a final selection by the full membership which takes place next Friday 4th July. Following this final selection, the official conservative candidate for the Member of Parliament for the South Thanet Constituency for the forthcoming election in 2015, will be announced.
The three selected shortlisted candidates are:-
Tony Devenish
Anna Firth
Craig Mackinlay
The former UKIP leader is Cllr Craig Mackinlay. anotherDave posted a link to the local paper's coverage of the shortlist. The mini biography for MacKinlay was
Cllr [Craig] Mackinlay is a Chartered Accountant, and stood in 2012 as the Conservative candidate to be Kent’s Police and Crime Commissioner – an election in which he was sadly defeated. A Medway District Councillor, he also has the unusual distinction of being a former leader of UKIP – he led the party briefly in 1997, then served as its Deputy Leader from 1997-2000, before leaving to join the Conservatives in 2005.
A chartered accountant who held a senior position within UKIP in the 1997-2005 period may well have interesting stories to tell which might deter Farage from standing.
If so (MacKinlay is yet to be selected), Farage might well opt to stand in Thanet North against Sir Roger Gale (or his successor if Gale decides to stand down).
People have blithely been assuming that, post election, the LDs would swing to Labour, or prefer opposition: I'm not entirely sure. For me - and I appreciate the federal structure - the MPs have to have the leading role. If there is a preponderance of MPs from one tradition or other, then presumably that will drive the decision: what I mean is that, say, out of 30 surviving MPs 28 of them were Orange Bookers (extreme example) then I'd imagine it would be difficult for them to serve in a government that expouses the sort of failed economics that Labour believes in.
Does anyone have a list of the, say, 30-35 safest LDs by political leaning?
Farage will want to maximise publicity. If he leaves it much longer his big announcement will be buried by the historically important vote in Scotland.
Edited extra bit: P1 starts at 10am.
You seem to forget that there are plenty of people who don't see it as a good thing, and would rather a party be people-friendly rather than the party of bosses.
I'm happy to offer you 6/5 if you like.
We saw during the recession how management and workers can co-operate to great effect in the car industry. The two sides both benefit by co-operating rather than being seen, or acting, as adversaries.
No bosses, so no employees and no jobs.
Or do you prefer a totalitarian state where the state runs everything - North Korea?
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/24187/9370927/kimi-raikkonen-says-hell-probably-retire-when-his-ferrari-contract-expires
F1 finds the only man in the world who thinks standing restarts make sense. Unfortunately, it's Charlie Whiting:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/9370742/fias-charlie-whiting-calms-driver-concerns-over-2015-standing-restarts
“Of course you are more likely, statistically, to have incidents at a standing start than any other time in the race, but no driver wants that to happen and no driver will cause it to happen.
“I don’t know if there is any added risk, personally.”
....
So, he acknowledges it is likelier for an accident to occur at a standing (re)start, and then says he doesn't know if there's any more risk? Earlier in the article he said he was unsure if places were likelier to change at a standing start compared to a rolling one, which is obviously the case.
Pure bullshit.
More worrying is the notion that it was suggested by a team and that all the teams are 100% behind it. The drivers certainly aren't, and neither are the fans.
Edited extra bit: just read the comments, which are very sensible, particularly one which pointed out that if you have to line up on the grid on marbles that'll be a significant disadvantage.
Most western countries have seen the extraordinary rise of the 0.01% because we don't insist on true free markets but rather seem to enjoy a form of crony capitalism. There is much rent seeking activity at the very top (such as integrated banks' private profits but public losses) and condoned or even encouraged by politicians because they depend on largesse from such (trade union rent seeking another good example). We need a consumer not producer driven policy approach towards both the public and private sectors.
The best thing a 'business bashing' Labour administration or a true Conservative one could do would be to recognise this explicitly and act to make the red tape go away for the vast majority of businesses and to remove the trough from the rent seekers at the apex of the private and public sector worlds.
Still the coverage given by the paper is supportive and there is an equally strong anti-UKIP line being taken.
Take the unflattering juxtaposition of photographs of Janice Atkinson (UKIP SE MEP) and Will Scobie here: http://bit.ly/1zchwTj
Also the headline and comment below from a fellow [I guess Labour] candidate:
[Will Scobie] might not be 78 years old like Janice's colleague, the Ukip group leader at County Hall, but he is a naturally gifted politician, genuinely local, an excellent father, and he will still be around when Ukip, as a party is extinct.
The news coverage of Scobie's selection in July 2013 was also positive:
LABOUR'S youngest district councillor Will Scobie will fight the next general election in South Thanet after winning a party poll tonight.
The Dane Valley member won two-thirds of the vote ahead of council cabinet member Michelle Fenner and London activists Yaqub Hanif and Christine Shawcroft.
After the meeting, the 24-year-old said: "It's been very tiring. It feels like I've gone 10 rounds of boxing.
"I'm looking forward for the chance to represent the area I've lived in all my life.
Thanet Labour leader Clive Hart said: "I am delighted that South Thanet Labour have selected Will Scobie as our parliamentary candidate for the next general election.
"Will joined us at TDC in 2011 and his drive and commitment helped Thanet Labour to secure an increased representation at district level.
"Despite his relative youth, Will has been active in politics for many years now and has worked in several high level political offices whilst studying for his Master's Degree in Politics.
"Will is very much the future of our local party and he is going to be a formidable candidate for the next general election."
Fairly standard stuff for local papers I guess but surely Labour don't select a 24 year old in a constituency they held between 1997-2010 and the favourite constituency for Farage's candidacy unless the boy is exceptional.
The selection of Scobie may well be setting the constituency up for the long term with a view to taking it in 2020.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_by-election,_2014
There is another possible explanation for the 24 year old Labour wonderkind: perhaps they've decided to 'throw' the race.
Why do you think the Tory share of the vote went up by six points and UKIP went down by one ?
Oh I forget, Kippers thought the only poll that counts was the one by the Loughborough University students.
And the bosses are getting fed up with doing so, when there are millions of people in south-east Asia and elsewhere who are willing to work hard (something no Brit has done since the introduction of the Factory Acts in Victorian times) and so produce the goods and the profits. Democracy gives people ideas "au-dessus de sa gare" as someone once said.
Just done a similar search on Thanet Gazette for "Nigel Farage" and it is clear the local paper is not going to come out for UKIP at the General Election!
Much prominence has been given to a local petition to try to persuade Farage not to stand in the constituency. The campaign, called SUTU (Stand Up To UKIP), is described below a photo of its supporters carrying placards printed with "Thatcher Loving, Hate Stirring, Stomach Turning Nastly Little Nigel". Strong stuff! But it appears the petition had only garnered 100 signatories in mid June.
Story with photos of placards here: http://bit.ly/1s765HB
And for all those PBers who wish to add their names to the hundred, petition here: http://chn.ge/1lYWkuB
I'm beginning to think there is plenty of opportunity for tactical voting against UKIP in the Thanets.
Labour held it up until 2010!
You have a very strange definition of safe, especially with nearly 7,000 lib Dems to squeeze.
The Conservative result was 9% down on 2010, worse than their national numbers.
The Conservatives can only hope this kind of pro-Tory tactical voting doesn't catch on around the country.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
Since the Survation poll was largely accurate, we can infer that their was a late movement to the Tories from non Kipper parties.
But as I sit here staring over the works yard looking at various trucks delivering things and picking things up for export, I reflect on the £30K we have spent this week on state audited regulation required by the law, the number of CSA and court order cheques on my desk I have to sign as an unpaid tax collector, the H+S meeting I have to go to later this morning before we can turn on a new piece of machinery (not un reasonable that one - but it all adds to the mix), and then I reflect on Ed's announcement this week where I think the words "create" "small business" and "administration" were all used in the same sentence, supposedly as a good thing (!), and I wonder is it worth the hassle?
Thing is if I (or someone else in my role ) doesn't sit here 83 people are up the road. So, it's kind of important not to be too unfriendly to business which (within limits sure) is best achieved by Govt buggering off out of it, stopping interfering, and letting us get on with it so we can compete with my Chinese equivalent, who is also sitting overlooking his loading yard but without the pile of CSA cheques, or a £30K regulation bill.
Lord Ashcroft's poll sampled over the same period as Survation's first poll, but did not find the low level of Con support that Survation did.
6/5 is hardly generous considering you don't think UKIP will win the seat. I don't think Spurs will win the league but I'll get no takers at 6/5.
I suspect what you mean is you "hope" Farage doesn't win and that 6/5 is miserly enough to put me off. Why not have the courage of your convictions and offer me 12s if you're so confident?
I seem to be confusing myself! Sorry.
I'm offering you odds.
Frankly, I don't care whether Farage is an MP or not.
I care about winning money, and therefore will offer you the market rate, because I'm a gambler.
Businesses are part of the wider community in which they exist. Surely we want to ensure our people have better working conditions and employment rights than their counterparts in China and other totalitarian states. If the Germans, Swedes, Dutch and others can do it, so can we.
You're meant to offer bigger odds on here than widely available not shorter
I'll offer 6/4
Thanks isam
If you want to paint that as bad well go ahead, but it's a strange decision to have come to
That was an appalling failure coming in a poor 3rd even though no main party candidates were standing. That his idea of what you should do on polling day is to fly above the constituency tells you all you need to know about UKIP and the ground war.
Remember that in that election the second place went to a pro-EU Tory.
I believe that @Easteross might be correct. He is frit when he moves outside the comfort zone of the closed party list PR system of the Euros. Given his record who can blame him.
I wish we'd go fully decimal for odds, it makes like so much easier
Very eloquently put.
I was at my desk at 7am today and have just finished doing HMG cr*p at 9.05 and can start to think about clients - no clients means no business in the future.
And when i get survey calls on behalf of HMG which waste my time, asking about our diversity policy, disabled policy or equality policy, I just put the phone down.
If they want to send me an email then they get a copy of our standard policy which basically says we do not care what colour, how many legs or what sex they are as long as they are able to do their job very, very well, conform to our company operating procedures and policies and have plenty of grey matter between their ears that they know how to use and use it imaginatively.
He'd be well advised to stay in his "king over the water" role - otherwise the seatless kippers post the GE might turf him out.
Nigel Farage, while outstanding at mobilising the 25% of people who love him, is probably equally good at mobilising the 50% of people who loathe him.
For that reason, he'll struggle to win a seat that is not a three (or four) way marginal. And I suspect that where he chooses to stand will get opinion-polled to death, and he will end up getting 35% of the of the vote, and losing to someone with 45%.
Look at Newark... PB is the only place in the world where you'll find upping your vote 600% being called a failure because ukip got 1% less than opinion poll suggested!
Heads in the sand, or fingers in their ears, kipper haters let their personal feelings get in the way of betting sense
It's why I'm at least 5% in front on every ukip bet I've had on next year. It's why you could back them to bt the Tories at 11/10 in the euros
Now I agree we can't have a warp speed race to the bottom, and yes business has to operate in society (though the lines should be drawn more leniently in my view than maybe others think), but the sheer grief of operating within the bounds society has set is not to be underestimated. Keep adding to it and eventually the camel's back will break.
On John's more serious point, the way the Commons works is that senior people initially choose their junior ministers etc. largely from the people who they know and have impressed them - it may seem like favouritism and I didn't like it in 1997, but it's natural enough, rather than picking a stranger who's been busy doing something non-political. After a while the whips' office thinks they've got the newcomers' measure and recommend the ones they think are talented AND loyal for either Ministerial or Select Committee work (though the direct elections for the latter have now closed off that option for the whips).
This is all much as you'd expect, but it has unfortunate effects. The fastest route to promotion is to know some senior politicians really well, which means getting into politics from your teens. Failing that, you need to make the whips like you. Original thinkers (not a claim I'd especially make for myself) from other walks of life are handicapped and put off.
That said, politics is a team game. The lone ranger who thinks he knows it all because he's the only MP who has been a deep-sea fisherman is probably not going to do well even in objective terms. Ideally, we want people who've done something impressively non-political but also taken an interest in politics and worked with others for a good while.
I can see seats where 2010 lib dems shift to Labour, and Conservative marginals where kipper voters help elect a Labour candidate (Broxtowe fits both). It is why Ed Miliband will have a small majority next year.
More likely, considering it still was way down on 2010
Last i saw Farage he was being sad and patheitic in the EU parliament.
@PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2); Cons 34 (+1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 14 (+2); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://t.co/ZIW8sK8TOa
Will Labour Thanet voters switch to the Conservatives to keep Nige out ?
Will Conservative voters switch to Labour to keep Nigel out though ?
Will anti-UKIP Lib Dems go Con or Lab ?
The anti-UKIP tactical vote in Thanet South is not nearly as obvious as Newark, though when push comes to shove it is probably crucially thought to be Conservative.
Though as JackW mentions Farage is not yet named for the constituency. We all might think its a shoo in but like the Lansley commissioner bet we can't count the chickens till they're hatched.
So what chances do the parties have:
Working from the outsiders in:
Lib Dems ~0%, 100,000-1
Labour Just under 30% perhaps ? Unlikely Labour goes up from here but a Con squeeze from UKIP doesn't rule them out 5-2
That leaves 71% Con vs UKIP
On the Con side: incumbency, a large majority, small number of anti-UKIP tactical votes from Lib-Lab
On the UKIP side: High profile candidate, excellent demographics, will be a large focus on here:
Tricky - perhaps about even. Farage has flopped before, doesn't mean he will again.
7-4 UKIP, 15-8 Conservative.
That lot adds up to a 99.7% book, so obviously if I was an actual bookie I'd add in an overround but fundamentally:
1000+-1 Lib Dem
5-2 Labour
15-8 Conservative
7-4 UKIP
are the odds I think, though I'm not ultra confident on that book so its NO BET backing or laying for me.
If you improved from 4th to second with 600% improvement in vote share I wouldn't
It depends on the starting position
If you can't beat Gordon Brown outright after a terrible recession and illegal wars etc I'd call that failure
If you were the main opposition
I would nt call it failure that the lib Dems didn't win the last GE outright
Welshowl, isn’t there some means of BACS payments for CSA etc cheques? I’m a payment authoriser for a charity (a CAB) and about every week I get a request to authorise half a dozen or so payments, which takes me about 10 minutes on what I regard as a clunky system.
If there isn’t a BACS type system then that’s something EdM could surely get sorted PDQ!
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.