Will Labour Thanet voters switch to the Conservatives to keep Nige out ?
Will Conservative voters switch to Labour to keep Nigel out though ?
Will anti-UKIP Lib Dems go Con or Lab ?
The anti-UKIP tactical vote in Thanet South is not nearly as obvious as Newark, though when push comes to shove it is probably crucially thought to be Conservative.
Though as JackW mentions Farage is not yet named for the constituency. We all might think its a shoo in but like the Lansley commissioner bet we can't count the chickens till they're hatched.
So what chances do the parties have:
Working from the outsiders in:
Lib Dems ~0%, 100,000-1 Labour Just under 30% perhaps ? Unlikely Labour goes up from here but a Con squeeze from UKIP doesn't rule them out 5-2
That leaves 71% Con vs UKIP
On the Con side: incumbency, a large majority, small number of anti-UKIP tactical votes from Lib-Lab
On the UKIP side: High profile candidate, excellent demographics, will be a large focus on here:
Tricky - perhaps about even. Farage has flopped before, doesn't mean he will again.
7-4 UKIP, 15-8 Conservative.
That lot adds up to a 99.7% book, so obviously if I was an actual bookie I'd add in an overround but fundamentally:
1000+-1 Lib Dem 5-2 Labour 15-8 Conservative 7-4 UKIP
are the odds I think, though I'm not ultra confident on that book so its NO BET backing or laying for me.
Why would Farage even want to be an MP? In his current position he can pitch up in Brussels whenever, trouser the allowances and then run off back to doing UKIP stuff. Get elected to the HoC and he's going to be accountable to his constituents and have to account for every expense.
Can you be an MP and an MEP. Last i saw Farage he was being sad and patheitic in the EU parliament.
Nope he was doing exactly what he has always said he would do which is to highlight the idiocy of the EU institutions. The sad and pathetic ones are the morons who still try to claim EU membership has any net benefit to the UK.
In all likelihood, there'll be tactical voting both for and against UKIP in this constituency.
It's a good deal less well-heeled than Newark, which would probably limit the scope for anti-UKIP tactical voting. It's also unclear who one should vote for, in order to stop UKIP.
Given the boost that party leaders tend to get, I'd make Mr. Farage the slight favourite if he stood.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
Is Austin Mitchell standing again? If not, then UKIP has a great shot there.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
Is Austin Mitchell standing again? If not, then UKIP has a great shot there.
Or is that woman with the crazy views the UKIP candidate there?
Will Labour Thanet voters switch to the Conservatives to keep Nige out ?
Will Conservative voters switch to Labour to keep Nigel out though ?
Will anti-UKIP Lib Dems go Con or Lab ?
The anti-UKIP tactical vote in Thanet South is not nearly as obvious as Newark, though when push comes to shove it is probably crucially thought to be Conservative.
Though as JackW mentions Farage is not yet named for the constituency. We all might think its a shoo in but like the Lansley commissioner bet we can't count the chickens till they're hatched.
So what chances do the parties have:
Working from the outsiders in:
Lib Dems ~0%, 100,000-1 Labour Just under 30% perhaps ? Unlikely Labour goes up from here but a Con squeeze from UKIP doesn't rule them out 5-2
That leaves 71% Con vs UKIP
On the Con side: incumbency, a large majority, small number of anti-UKIP tactical votes from Lib-Lab
On the UKIP side: High profile candidate, excellent demographics, will be a large focus on here:
Tricky - perhaps about even. Farage has flopped before, doesn't mean he will again.
7-4 UKIP, 15-8 Conservative.
That lot adds up to a 99.7% book, so obviously if I was an actual bookie I'd add in an overround but fundamentally:
1000+-1 Lib Dem 5-2 Labour 15-8 Conservative 7-4 UKIP
are the odds I think, though I'm not ultra confident on that book so its NO BET backing or laying for me.
I think your odds on Labour are too short.
3-1, 7-2 maybe ?
That neccesarily makes UKIP-Con shorter...
If you think UKIP is too short given you are prepared to lay them do you think there is value in Conservative 7-4 @ Ladbrokes ?
Financier, do you do that 2 hours or so EVERY day? Just asking.
Welshowl, isn’t there some means of BACS payments for CSA etc cheques? I’m a payment authoriser for a charity (a CAB) and about every week I get a request to authorise half a dozen or so payments, which takes me about 10 minutes on what I regard as a clunky system. If there isn’t a BACS type system then that’s something EdM could surely get sorted PDQ!
As I say below, our business just does not have the burdens that others on here talk about. There is a level of compliance, but nothing that prevents us from doing the other stuff we have to do and nothing which takes hours each day to deal with. Maybe we are doing something wrong and we are heading for a huge lawsuit.
At dinner last night, met the leader of the local county council who was bemoaning the fact that they have to find an extra £12m next year of savings.
He said they would have to cut services again and put up the Council tax. As I told him that his council was effectively bankrupt, then he should do the same as any business would have to do and cut the number of senior staff and cut the salaries of the rest including pensions and cut councilors' allowances and expenses and at the same time look at ways of delivering the essential services more economically.
He was horrified and said that senior staff had just been given a pay rise! and that councilors and staff have a close bond. Took him ages to realise that the council cannot treat the electorate like a bank and keep asking for more as else there will be a mass local refusal to pay council tax.
There is no evidence that people voted tactically against ukip in Newark. They massively reduced a large majority and increased their share of the vote. Besides, in Thanet South who would vote tactically and why?
The labour PPC in Thanet South is a 24 year old boy, the Tories are struggling to find a credible candidate, Farage is a shoo in.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
There is no evidence that people voted tactically against ukip in Newark. They massively reduced a large majority and increased their share of the vote. Besides, in Thanet South who would vote tactically and why?
The labour PPC in Thanet South is a 24 year old boy, the Tories are struggling to find a credible candidate, Farage is a shoo in.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
The UKIP candidate was an ex tory from the survivalist/idiot/'tea party' fringe and the fact that people were prepared to vote tactically (in a by election!) for a detoxed modern tory party to keep UKIP out surely speaks volumes. In the run up to an election after an era of 'austerity' the electorate could have kicked the tories in the teeth. Instead they crossed the floor to vote for them. Farage/ A few people who are more supplicants to a cult of personality will always vote for him even if he dropped his pants in front of the Queen and sang 'She was on the good ship Venus' - but many more will deliberately vote against him.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
Is Austin Mitchell standing again? If not, then UKIP has a great shot there.
Or is that woman with the crazy views the UKIP candidate there?
Farage will IMHO never win a Westminster seat - the guy is just ballot-box poison. He has failed every time he has tried. He even managed to fail in Buckingham, even though every other contender stood aside for him.
He can't win any seat and nor can UKIP. I have banged on about this before but
- their best effort in 2010 was to come third in 3 seats - their narrowest margin of loss was over 8,000 votes - their best poll percentage was 6% in Christchurch, where they lost by over 23,000 votes.
Nothing in that picture points to any seat being winnable by UKIP.
It is pretty clear, from the difference in results for them between local versus Euro versus Westminster elections, that the closer an election might put UKIP to actual power, the weaker their support. Voting UKIP at the euros is a harmless bit of fun, because MEPs do absolutely nothing whatsoever. Voting for a UKIP councillor puts them near your council tax, however, and voting for a UKIP MP risks putting them near actual government, God help us.
These outcomes are viewed with correspondingly increasing alarm by voters, with the result that while wags vote for them in the euros as a joke, only very, very irresponsible people still do so in Westminster elections held in non-safe seats.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
There is no evidence that people voted tactically against ukip in Newark. They massively reduced a large majority and increased their share of the vote. Besides, in Thanet South who would vote tactically and why?
The labour PPC in Thanet South is a 24 year old boy, the Tories are struggling to find a credible candidate, Farage is a shoo in.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
There is no evidence that people voted tactically against ukip in Newark. They massively reduced a large majority and increased their share of the vote. Besides, in Thanet South who would vote tactically and why?
The labour PPC in Thanet South is a 24 year old boy, the Tories are struggling to find a credible candidate, Farage is a shoo in.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
The UKIP candidate was an ex tory from the survivalist/idiot/'tea party' fringe and the fact that people were prepared to vote tactically (in a by election!) for a detoxed modern tory party to keep UKIP out surely speaks volumes. In the run up to an election after an era of 'austerity' the electorate could have kicked the tories in the teeth. Instead they crossed the floor to vote for them. Farage/ A few people who are more supplicants to a cult of personality will always vote for him even if he dropped his pants in front of the Queen and sang 'She was on the good ship Venus' - but many more will deliberately vote against him.
Nope. The reason that UKIP didn't win Newark is because they were never going to win it no matter who the candidate was. Newark was and is solidly Tory and has been for the last decade - all the more so because of the boundary changes.
I called it as a Tory hold from before they even called the election. Anyone who knew the constituency knew that was the case. And there is no evidence at all of any anti-UKIP vote in Newark.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
In all likelihood, there'll be tactical voting both for and against UKIP in this constituency.
It's a good deal less well-heeled than Newark, which would probably limit the scope for anti-UKIP tactical voting. It's also unclear who one should vote for, in order to stop UKIP.
Given the boost that party leaders tend to get, I'd make Mr. Farage the slight favourite if he stood.
I just don't see UKIP winning a seat where so many people's livelihoods depend on cross-channel trade.
There is no evidence that people voted tactically against ukip in Newark.
Take it from me, there is evidence, and they did.
(I should say that I agreed with you immediately after the election, but I have since found out more about it, and it turns out that I was wrong).
Is this your evidence that you can't tell anyone but expect us to believe simply because you say so? In spite of the fact those who are actually on the ground in the constituency found no evidence of it either before or after the election?
UKIP performance in this weeks council by elections
Craven 16.3% not fought before N Yorks 14.3% not fought before Colchester 7.0 % not fought before Northampton 20.8% not fought before Braunston 20.1% down 11.3% on May 2014 Brixworth 21.3% down 3.7% on May 2014 Pendle 3.7% not fought before Cheltenham 8.2% not fought before T Hamlets 7.3% not fought before Tendring 18.8% not fought before although certainly won by UKIP in the Euros
Farage will IMHO never win a Westminster seat - the guy is just ballot-box poison. He has failed every time he has tried. He even managed to fail in Buckingham, even though every other contender stood aside for him.
He can't win any seat and nor can UKIP. I have banged on about this before but
- their best effort in 2010 was to come third in 3 seats - their narrowest margin of loss was over 8,000 votes - their best poll percentage was 6% in Christchurch, where they lost by over 23,000 votes.
Nothing in that picture points to any seat being winnable by UKIP.
It is pretty clear, from the difference in results for them between local versus Euro versus Westminster elections, that the closer an election might put UKIP to actual power, the weaker their support. Voting UKIP at the euros is a harmless bit of fun, because MEPs do absolutely nothing whatsoever. Voting for a UKIP councillor puts them near your council tax, however, and voting for a UKIP MP risks putting them near actual government, God help us.
These outcomes are viewed with correspondingly increasing alarm by voters, with the result that while wags vote for them in the euros as a joke, only very, very irresponsible people still do so in Westminster elections held in non-safe seats.
The political terms of trade have altered since 2010.
Anyone who'd suggested in 2010 that UKIP would win the EU elections, and gain 300 council seats in two years would have been branded a fantasist
OT As I told him that his council was effectively bankrupt, then he should do the same as any business would have to do and cut the number of senior staff and cut the salaries of the rest including pensions and cut councilors' allowances and expenses and at the same time look at ways of delivering the essential services more economically.
UKIP performance in this weeks council by elections
Craven 16.3% not fought before N Yorks 14.3% not fought before Colchester 7.0 % not fought before Northampton 20.8% not fought before Braunston 20.1% down 11.3% on May 2014 Brixworth 21.3% down 3.7% on May 2014 Pendle 3.7% not fought before Cheltenham 8.2% not fought before T Hamlets 7.3% not fought before Tendring 18.8% not fought before although certainly won by UKIP in the Euros
7.3% in Tower Hamlets - interesting... that to me indicates that Dan Hodges will almost certainly be having to use a Farage mask to save his modesty.
There is no evidence that people voted tactically against ukip in Newark. They massively reduced a large majority and increased their share of the vote. Besides, in Thanet South who would vote tactically and why?
The labour PPC in Thanet South is a 24 year old boy, the Tories are struggling to find a credible candidate, Farage is a shoo in.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
Ukip vote share went up 600% in a seat they have no history of doing anything in with a candidate considered to be a drag on the vote
If you want to paint that as bad well go ahead, but it's a strange decision to have come to
Did he win?
If QPR come 2nd in the prem next year you could call them failures if all you were interested in was criticising QPR I suppose
Not achieving a win in FPTP is pretty much the definition of failure isn't it?
If you had a massive majority and lost the seat, I'd call it failure
If you improved from 4th to second with 600% improvement in vote share I wouldn't
It depends on the starting position
If you can't beat Gordon Brown outright after a terrible recession and illegal wars etc I'd call that failure If you were the main opposition
I would nt call it failure that the lib Dems didn't win the last GE outright
Farage will IMHO never win a Westminster seat - the guy is just ballot-box poison. He has failed every time he has tried. He even managed to fail in Buckingham, even though every other contender stood aside for him.
He can't win any seat and nor can UKIP. I have banged on about this before but
- their best effort in 2010 was to come third in 3 seats - their narrowest margin of loss was over 8,000 votes - their best poll percentage was 6% in Christchurch, where they lost by over 23,000 votes.
Nothing in that picture points to any seat being winnable by UKIP.
It is pretty clear, from the difference in results for them between local versus Euro versus Westminster elections, that the closer an election might put UKIP to actual power, the weaker their support. Voting UKIP at the euros is a harmless bit of fun, because MEPs do absolutely nothing whatsoever. Voting for a UKIP councillor puts them near your council tax, however, and voting for a UKIP MP risks putting them near actual government, God help us.
These outcomes are viewed with correspondingly increasing alarm by voters, with the result that while wags vote for them in the euros as a joke, only very, very irresponsible people still do so in Westminster elections held in non-safe seats.
The political terms of trade have altered since 2010.
Anyone who'd suggested in 2010 that UKIP would win the EU elections, and gain 300 council seats in two years would have been branded a fantasist
Yet when it happened, most on here said they hadn't met expectations!
At dinner last night, met the leader of the local county council who was bemoaning the fact that they have to find an extra £12m next year of savings.
He said they would have to cut services again and put up the Council tax. As I told him that his council was effectively bankrupt, then he should do the same as any business would have to do and cut the number of senior staff and cut the salaries of the rest including pensions and cut councilors' allowances and expenses and at the same time look at ways of delivering the essential services more economically.
He was horrified and said that senior staff had just been given a pay rise! and that councilors and staff have a close bond. Took him ages to realise that the council cannot treat the electorate like a bank and keep asking for more as else there will be a mass local refusal to pay council tax.
Councils like charities are all too often run for the benefit of the staff.
Perhaps we should thank Gordon Brown - the cuts may change the way we look at public money for a generation.
Morning all and from memory wasn't Mr Farage the UKIP leader when he did spectacularly badly against wee Bercow in 2010? The longer he leaves it to announce where he is standing, the more frit he will appear.
no he wasn't leader when he stood against Bercow in 2010
Technically correct. Except that he announced that he was stepping down from the leadership in order to be able to concentrate on Buckingham. He then got the job back again, Putin-like, after GE10.
That was an appalling failure coming in a poor 3rd even though no main party candidates were standing. That his idea of what you should do on polling day is to fly above the constituency tells you all you need to know about UKIP and the ground war.
Remember that in that election the second place went to a pro-EU Tory.
I believe that @Easteross might be correct. He is frit when he moves outside the comfort zone of the closed party list PR system of the Euros. Given his record who can blame him.
UKIP is highly likely to win seats (plural) at the 2015 General Election. Candidates like Diane James (who will unfortunately not win Eastleigh) are able to attract support from across the political spectrum, and will not fall victim to tactical voting.
Nigel Farage, while outstanding at mobilising the 25% of people who love him, is probably equally good at mobilising the 50% of people who loathe him.
For that reason, he'll struggle to win a seat that is not a three (or four) way marginal. And I suspect that where he chooses to stand will get opinion-polled to death, and he will end up getting 35% of the of the vote, and losing to someone with 45%.
Meaning 1 of either tory or labour scores around 10%. Nonsense
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
Oh yeah! Haha that's about par for the course!
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
Oh yeah! Haha that's about par for the course!
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
As I understand it, Betfair will open these markets once the uncertainty of the North Britain referendum is out of the way.
Kip YG scores this week : 12 12 11 12 Sun to come...
Kip YG scores last week : 15 15 14 13 14
Junckered.
UKIP Defectors from 2010 Cons
This week publlshed:13,14,16,13
Last week published:16,20,18,17,18
Later this month the Conservatives are going to vote on passing power over Justice and Home Affairs to the EU.
If they have gained support from being perceived as 'standing up to the EU', they're likely to lose those gains by being revealed to be in favour of passing power to the EU.
Financier, do you do that 2 hours or so EVERY day? Just asking.
Welshowl, isn’t there some means of BACS payments for CSA etc cheques? I’m a payment authoriser for a charity (a CAB) and about every week I get a request to authorise half a dozen or so payments, which takes me about 10 minutes on what I regard as a clunky system. If there isn’t a BACS type system then that’s something EdM could surely get sorted PDQ!
About twice a week as we do a lot of vetting of research projects as well as normal business but too many people like to make a job out of compliance instead of using their records
There is no evidence that people voted tactically against ukip in Newark. They massively reduced a large majority and increased their share of the vote. Besides, in Thanet South who would vote tactically and why?
The labour PPC in Thanet South is a 24 year old boy, the Tories are struggling to find a credible candidate, Farage is a shoo in.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
Ukip vote share went up 600% in a seat they have no history of doing anything in with a candidate considered to be a drag on the vote
If you want to paint that as bad well go ahead, but it's a strange decision to have come to
Did he win?
If QPR come 2nd in the prem next year you could call them failures if all you were interested in was criticising QPR I suppose
Not achieving a win in FPTP is pretty much the definition of failure isn't it?
If you had a massive majority and lost the seat, I'd call it failure
If you improved from 4th to second with 600% improvement in vote share I wouldn't
It depends on the starting position
If you can't beat Gordon Brown outright after a terrible recession and illegal wars etc I'd call that failure If you were the main opposition
I would nt call it failure that the lib Dems didn't win the last GE outright
So he failed.
Well I obviously don't think it is as black and white as that as I said, you have to look at starting positions to decide what failure is
OT As I told him that his council was effectively bankrupt, then he should do the same as any business would have to do and cut the number of senior staff and cut the salaries of the rest including pensions and cut councilors' allowances and expenses and at the same time look at ways of delivering the essential services more economically.
A 2.9 magnitude earthquake has been recorded in Fort William in the Scottish Highlands.
The quake happened at about 18:36 GMT on Thursday evening in northern Scotland, the British Geological Survey (BGS) said.
It was felt in a number of other areas including Glencoe, Oban and Lochaber, the BSG added on its website.
The full list of areas that felt the earthquake, according to the BSG, was: Felt Fort William, Glenfinnan, Spean Bridge, Lochaber, Lochailort, Glencoe, Corpach, Kinlochleven, Acharacle, Roy Bridge, Duror of Appin, Gairlochy, Inverlochy, Kentellan, Kilmelford, Kinlocheil, Caol, Banavie, Lochyside, Strontian, Glenaladale, Onich, Ballachulish, Kinlochmoidart, Glenuig, Lismore and Oban.
It is not the first time an earthquake has hit the area.
In 2011, a stronger 3.5-magnitude struck 25 miles west of Fort William in Glenuig.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
Oh yeah! Haha that's about par for the course!
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
As I understand it, Betfair will open these markets once the uncertainty of the North Britain referendum is out of the way.
@Pulpstar Don't be to sure. If Cameron looks like a shoe in for the next election, the gap will narrow considerably. Might not be enough for a YES win, but it will have a large effect
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
Oh yeah! Haha that's about par for the course!
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
As I understand it, Betfair will open these markets once the uncertainty of the North Britain referendum is out of the way.
The day our Nat posters get cleaned out ?
It has the potential to void a lot of our existing bets.
Let us say Scots vote yes, some Tories are going to try and stop Scotland sending MPs to Westminster in 2015.
So the number of seats up for grab is not 650, but 591, which buggers up the seat bands for example.
I think it's pretty clear that the Juncker thing has enabled the Tories to recover a couple of points from UKIP. Whether it'll last we shall see!
Possibly, but I'm not convinced that there's actually been much change in recent weeks. The apparent small shift towards Labour after the Euros, and the apparent small shift back in the last few days, might just be noise.
As regards UKIP, we may be seeing, as one would expect, a very gradual drift down from their Euros high, but we're looking for a small signal in a lot of noise, so it's best not to over-analyse changes over a few weeks.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
The UKIP candidate was an ex tory from the survivalist/idiot/'tea party' fringe and the fact that people were prepared to vote tactically (in a by election!) for a detoxed modern tory party to keep UKIP out surely speaks volumes. In the run up to an election after an era of 'austerity' the electorate could have kicked the tories in the teeth. Instead they crossed the floor to vote for them. Farage/ A few people who are more supplicants to a cult of personality will always vote for him even if he dropped his pants in front of the Queen and sang 'She was on the good ship Venus' - but many more will deliberately vote against him.
Nope. The reason that UKIP didn't win Newark is because they were never going to win it no matter who the candidate was. Newark was and is solidly Tory and has been for the last decade - all the more so because of the boundary changes.
I called it as a Tory hold from before they even called the election. Anyone who knew the constituency knew that was the case. And there is no evidence at all of any anti-UKIP vote in Newark.
Does the last decade count? Newark was labour in 1950 through to 1979 and was Labour again in 1997. In 2010 labour got 22% and LD 20%. In the by election they got 18% and 3% You are trying to tell me that there ws not tactical switching to the tories.
This is a betting site - although I do not know anything about the niceties of betting - but surely when it comes to putting their money where their mouths are then people need to look at the clear way the voters have shown they will vote AGAINST ukip.
Financier, do you do that 2 hours or so EVERY day? Just asking.
Welshowl, isn’t there some means of BACS payments for CSA etc cheques? I’m a payment authoriser for a charity (a CAB) and about every week I get a request to authorise half a dozen or so payments, which takes me about 10 minutes on what I regard as a clunky system. If there isn’t a BACS type system then that’s something EdM could surely get sorted PDQ!
Probably there is or could be, but my point is why am I even being forced to do this? This is the State's business with individuals, not caused by me, nothing to do with me, but somehow I'm the one picking up the cost for administering the State's business. Of itself it's piddling of course, and of no significance, but it's illustrative of the stealth tentacles of the State as it enacts things "for the good of society" and ends up creating monsters.
Pensions are my favourite bugbear, where the original noble aim of trying to secure decent pots of money for old age has become a beast devouring time, resources, and money from businesses, way beyond the original intention I'm sure.
Is this your evidence that you can't tell anyone but expect us to believe simply because you say so? In spite of the fact those who are actually on the ground in the constituency found no evidence of it either before or after the election?
Believe me or not, your prejudice is so strong that I wouldn't care either way.
But yes, the information came directly from the ground from someone in a very, very good position to know. It referred specifically to voters in the Labour-friendly areas of the constituency.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
Oh yeah! Haha that's about par for the course!
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
As I understand it, Betfair will open these markets once the uncertainty of the North Britain referendum is out of the way.
The day our Nat posters get cleaned out ?
It has the potential to void a lot of our existing bets.
Let us say Scots vote yes, some Tories are going to try and stop Scotland sending MPs to Westminster in 2015.
So the number of seats up for grab is not 650, but 591, which buggers up the seat bands for example.
591 seats would fuck me up a treat for all sorts of reasons. I'm more concerned about my 43% Overs with Bond James Bond losing than getting a payout from The Union Divvie though.
Why would Farage even want to be an MP? In his current position he can pitch up in Brussels whenever, trouser the allowances and then run off back to doing UKIP stuff. Get elected to the HoC and he's going to be accountable to his constituents and have to account for every expense.
Brand Farage would be damaged goods if he stood and lost.
He'd be well advised to stay in his "king over the water" role - otherwise the seatless kippers post the GE might turf him out.
I'd say it's beyond argument that his brand is already tarnished. The evidence for this is not hard to find. We know that UKIP are the most disliked party. No MP ever defects to UKIP, probably because they are perceived as both no-hopers and unpleasant. Farage is the only face UKIP has, so this is down to him, although it's important to keep reminding people that Neil "Cash for questions" Hamilton is now in UKIP.
We observe that that they cannot win a Westminster seat
- even in a by election, where they can run whomever they consider their best candidate - even in a by election, where they can focus all their resources and are not as in a GE thinly spread - even when the seat is up only because the incumbent has been jailed - even when their only known face is the candidate, and the other plausibles have stood aside for him
It is as plain as a pikestaff that UKIP's problem is its members and its leader. Apart from that they're in good shape.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
Oh yeah! Haha that's about par for the course!
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
As I understand it, Betfair will open these markets once the uncertainty of the North Britain referendum is out of the way.
The day our Nat posters get cleaned out ?
It has the potential to void a lot of our existing bets.
Let us say Scots vote yes, some Tories are going to try and stop Scotland sending MPs to Westminster in 2015.
So the number of seats up for grab is not 650, but 591, which buggers up the seat bands for example.
591 seats would fuck me up a treat for all sorts of reasons. I'm more concerned about my 43% Overs with Bond James Bond losing than getting a payout from The Union Divvie though.
They'd void the markets if that happened, so all exisiting bets on say Lab 340-365 seats would be void.
A good point - maybe everyone should just turn theoir backs on it.
I guess the 'better together' lot will disown it. My other guess is that once again Farage is after cheap free publicity. It will suit his purposes in England if he is seen being mobbed again by Scots.
Fair play to him for coming back for seconds. The Unionist establishment won't like this sort of off-piste activity.
The BettertogetherUKOKNothanks preference is to attend invitation-only events at secret locations, e.g. Dave yesterday. Even then it looks as if they had to drug the audience into servility.
Judging by the fact the Tories asked people to vote tactically for them and there was a significant increase in the Tory share of the vote with survation in the final week and UKIP down, I'd say there was evidence of a tactical vote against UKIP
The UKIP candidate was an ex tory from the survivalist/idiot/'tea party' fringe and the fact that people were prepared to vote tactically (in a by election!) for a detoxed modern tory party to keep UKIP out surely speaks volumes. In the run up to an election after an era of 'austerity' the electorate could have kicked the tories in the teeth. Instead they crossed the floor to vote for them. Farage/ A few people who are more supplicants to a cult of personality will always vote for him even if he dropped his pants in front of the Queen and sang 'She was on the good ship Venus' - but many more will deliberately vote against him.
Nope. The reason that UKIP didn't win Newark is because they were never going to win it no matter who the candidate was. Newark was and is solidly Tory and has been for the last decade - all the more so because of the boundary changes.
I called it as a Tory hold from before they even called the election. Anyone who knew the constituency knew that was the case. And there is no evidence at all of any anti-UKIP vote in Newark.
Does the last decade count? Newark was labour in 1950 through to 1979 and was Labour again in 1997. In 2010 labour got 22% and LD 20%. In the by election they got 18% and 3% You are trying to tell me that there ws not tactical switching to the tories.
This is a betting site - although I do not know anything about the niceties of betting - but surely when it comes to putting their money where their mouths are then people need to look at the clear way the voters have shown they will vote AGAINST ukip.
Didn't the Tory vote share go down? How does that tally with labour voters voting Tory to stop ukip?
In fact the combined labour and lib dem loss in vote share equals almost exactly the rise in ukip share! And people are saying the labs and dems voted against ukip!!!
I wonder if the BNP share dropped the same amount as UKIPs went up how id get on saying that the BNP vote didn't got to ukip!!, haha truly laughable
Mulcare served time after "the rogue reporter trial" while Coulson went on enjoying the high life. He can have no complaints now the same has happened to him.
Mulcaire - the hacker - 6 months suspended and 200 hrs unpaid work
I feel very sorry for Coulson. Got sucked into a horribly poisonous working culture that existed a long time before he was in any position of responsibility. He's no victim, of course, but 18 months is a long time.
Mulcaire - the hacker - 6 months suspended and 200 hrs unpaid work
I feel very sorry for Coulson. Got sucked into a horribly poisonous working culture that existed a long time before he was in any position of responsibility. He's no victim, of course, but 18 months is a long time.
Would we be here today if Dave hadn't appointed Andy his Dir of Comms in 2007?
I feel very sorry for Coulson. Got sucked into a horribly poisonous working culture that existed a long time before he was in any position of responsibility. He's no victim, of course, but 18 months is a long time.
That argument in mitigation would have some force, if he had pleaded guilty.
Its looking increasingly likely to me that UKIP's best chances are in labour constituencies forsaken by the party that once dominated - Rotherham, Great Grimsby etc.
Hmm
I still think my 16-1 in Thurrock is slightly better than my 16-1 in Great Grimsby.
I still can't believe UKIP selected her in Grimsby.
I would agree except she stood their for the Tories in 2010 and came very close to winning... Her controversial comments had been made before then hadn't they??
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
I'm not sure they came out until after she defected to UKIP. I think it was her mother's quotes what did it.
Oh yeah! Haha that's about par for the course!
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
As I understand it, Betfair will open these markets once the uncertainty of the North Britain referendum is out of the way.
The day our Nat posters get cleaned out ?
It has the potential to void a lot of our existing bets.
Let us say Scots vote yes, some Tories are going to try and stop Scotland sending MPs to Westminster in 2015.
So the number of seats up for grab is not 650, but 591, which buggers up the seat bands for example.
591 seats would fuck me up a treat for all sorts of reasons. I'm more concerned about my 43% Overs with Bond James Bond losing than getting a payout from The Union Divvie though.
I have a bet on UKIP share in 2015 that is void if there's a Yes, on the basis that we're then no longer talking about the same demos.
If Scotland were leaving AIUI strictly they would still be entitled to vote in 2015 but GOK what the prospect of separation would do to voting intentions.
I feel very sorry for Coulson. Got sucked into a horribly poisonous working culture that existed a long time before he was in any position of responsibility. He's no victim, of course, but 18 months is a long time.
That argument in mitigation would have some force, if he had pleaded guilty.
True enough. But I still feel sorry for him. It's hard to believe there are not a fair few others that did the same or worse than he did. There must be a lot of people today thinking: "There but for the grace of God go I."
Looking at the Newark result it almost defies mathematics to suggest that the labs and Dems voted con in any significant manner
Con lost 8.9 Lab lost 4.6 LD lost 17.4
Ukip gained 22.1
If anything lab held up better than con, let alone lab voters going to con, how could there be tactical con voting if a all three shares went down, and con wasn't the most resilient? Makes no sense
Surely the most plausible outcome is a lot of cons stayed at home and a lot of lab and dem voted ukip
Mr. Smarmeron, those harsh sentences for looting were 100% justified, you can't compare the two. Looting and rioting were a systemic risk to public order in numerous UK cities and the justice system did fantastic work to come down like a ton of bricks on the scum that tried to take advantage of the situation.
Mulcaire - the hacker - 6 months suspended and 200 hrs unpaid work
I feel very sorry for Coulson. Got sucked into a horribly poisonous working culture that existed a long time before he was in any position of responsibility. He's no victim, of course, but 18 months is a long time.
Would we be here today if Dave hadn't appointed Andy his Dir of Comms in 2007?
Probably not. But Coulson knew the risk he was taking when he took the job.
If Scotland were leaving AIUI strictly they would still be entitled to vote in 2015 but GOK what the prospect of separation would do to voting intentions.
Yes, the election would of course go ahead as normal - after all they'd still be in the UK at the time of the election. In practice, I would have thought the effect would be a big boost to the SNP at the expense of Labour, since Scots would effectively be voting for a group of MPs to represent their interests in the last few months before leaving, and it would seem eccentric in such a scenario to send MPs from a unionist party to Westminster.
The ONS today released some numbers today on inter-ethnic relationships, that makes for very interesting reading. I did a quick ratio of the share of each ethnic group dating someone from outside their group, relative to the share of the population that's outside their group. So in a colour blind society, these numbers should all be 1, and in a completely segregated society these numbers would all be 0:
White Irish: 0.70 Gypsy/Irish traveller: 0.50 Black Caribbean: 0.43 Arab 0.34 Chinese 0.30 White British: 0.22 Black African: 0.22 Indian: 0.12 Pakistani: 0.08 Bangladeshi: 0.07
I found particularly interesting that Irish travellers and gypsies, who I have always thought were very segregated are actually one of the most open groups with their relationships. As expected, the Irish and Afro-Caribbeans are very integrated. The indigenous White British don't mix very well, while the numbers for south Asians are very poor. It seems we have a long way to go to improve integration.
I feel very sorry for Coulson. Got sucked into a horribly poisonous working culture that existed a long time before he was in any position of responsibility. He's no victim, of course, but 18 months is a long time.
That argument in mitigation would have some force, if he had pleaded guilty.
True enough. But I still feel sorry for him. It's hard to believe there are not a fair few others that did the same or worse than he did. There must be a lot of people today thinking: "There but for the grace of God go I."
I think Coulson will do OK. I bet he'll have some interesting memoirs in a few years...
His biggest problem is a potential purjury investigation north of the border. If convicted that could carry some serious jail time.
Financier, do you do that 2 hours or so EVERY day? Just asking.
Welshowl, isn’t there some means of BACS payments for CSA etc cheques? I’m a payment authoriser for a charity (a CAB) and about every week I get a request to authorise half a dozen or so payments, which takes me about 10 minutes on what I regard as a clunky system. If there isn’t a BACS type system then that’s something EdM could surely get sorted PDQ!
Probably there is or could be, but my point is why am I even being forced to do this? This is the State's business with individuals, not caused by me, nothing to do with me, but somehow I'm the one picking up the cost for administering the State's business. Of itself it's piddling of course, and of no significance, but it's illustrative of the stealth tentacles of the State as it enacts things "for the good of society" and ends up creating monsters.
Pensions are my favourite bugbear, where the original noble aim of trying to secure decent pots of money for old age has become a beast devouring time, resources, and money from businesses, way beyond the original intention I'm sure.
To add to the real time flavour today.... I can hear the accounts dept furious that they now have a week's extra work to correct a problem on payroll tax accrual, apparently caused by HMRC's changeover to a new system, which the local HMRC office have apparently (if I believe the accs dept) cocked up on.
Comments
It's a good deal less well-heeled than Newark, which would probably limit the scope for anti-UKIP tactical voting. It's also unclear who one should vote for, in order to stop UKIP.
Given the boost that party leaders tend to get, I'd make Mr. Farage the slight favourite if he stood.
That neccesarily makes UKIP-Con shorter...
If you think UKIP is too short given you are prepared to lay them do you think there is value in Conservative 7-4 @ Ladbrokes ?
At dinner last night, met the leader of the local county council who was bemoaning the fact that they have to find an extra £12m next year of savings.
He said they would have to cut services again and put up the Council tax.
As I told him that his council was effectively bankrupt, then he should do the same as any business would have to do and cut the number of senior staff and cut the salaries of the rest including pensions and cut councilors' allowances and expenses and at the same time look at ways of delivering the essential services more economically.
He was horrified and said that senior staff had just been given a pay rise! and that councilors and staff have a close bond. Took him ages to realise that the council cannot treat the electorate like a bank and keep asking for more as else there will be a mass local refusal to pay council tax.
In the run up to an election after an era of 'austerity' the electorate could have kicked the tories in the teeth. Instead they crossed the floor to vote for them.
Farage/ A few people who are more supplicants to a cult of personality will always vote for him even if he dropped his pants in front of the Queen and sang 'She was on the good ship Venus' - but many more will deliberately vote against him.
I have never been to Grimsby and couldn't tell you where it is, but maybe the voters aren't bothered about it?
He can't win any seat and nor can UKIP. I have banged on about this before but
- their best effort in 2010 was to come third in 3 seats
- their narrowest margin of loss was over 8,000 votes
- their best poll percentage was 6% in Christchurch, where they lost by over 23,000 votes.
Nothing in that picture points to any seat being winnable by UKIP.
It is pretty clear, from the difference in results for them between local versus Euro versus Westminster elections, that the closer an election might put UKIP to actual power, the weaker their support. Voting UKIP at the euros is a harmless bit of fun, because MEPs do absolutely nothing whatsoever. Voting for a UKIP councillor puts them near your council tax, however, and voting for a UKIP MP risks putting them near actual government, God help us.
These outcomes are viewed with correspondingly increasing alarm by voters, with the result that while wags vote for them in the euros as a joke, only very, very irresponsible people still do so in Westminster elections held in non-safe seats.
I'm just going on where the economic boom will have touched by 2015. I'd have thought its more likely to have reached Thurrock than Great Grimsby.
(I should say that I agreed with you immediately after the election, but I have since found out more about it, and it turns out that I was wrong).
I called it as a Tory hold from before they even called the election. Anyone who knew the constituency knew that was the case. And there is no evidence at all of any anti-UKIP vote in Newark.
Sadly, I'm sure this is all too common in local authorities.
Craven 16.3% not fought before
N Yorks 14.3% not fought before
Colchester 7.0 % not fought before
Northampton 20.8% not fought before
Braunston 20.1% down 11.3% on May 2014
Brixworth 21.3% down 3.7% on May 2014
Pendle 3.7% not fought before
Cheltenham 8.2% not fought before
T Hamlets 7.3% not fought before
Tendring 18.8% not fought before although certainly won by UKIP in the Euros
Anyone who'd suggested in 2010 that UKIP would win the EU elections, and gain 300 council seats in two years would have been branded a fantasist
Perhaps we should thank Gordon Brown - the cuts may change the way we look at public money for a generation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28144334
7-4 Russian military victory
4-7 "Diplomatic solution"
Ukraine military victory = No chance.
Does seem a wrong un... But I wouldn't say it means people won't vote for her... You got the value anyway, hopefully nearer the election Betfair will have individual constituency markets so you can lay it off
We should all be badgering betfair to make sure these are available I think?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-opt-out-of-eu-crime-and-justice-measures
About twice a week as we do a lot of vetting of research projects as well as normal business but too many people like to make a job out of compliance instead of using their records
But if I say he failed will it shut you up??!
Still think he will get longer.
A 2.9 magnitude earthquake has been recorded in Fort William in the Scottish Highlands.
The quake happened at about 18:36 GMT on Thursday evening in northern Scotland, the British Geological Survey (BGS) said.
It was felt in a number of other areas including Glencoe, Oban and Lochaber, the BSG added on its website.
The full list of areas that felt the earthquake, according to the BSG, was: Felt Fort William, Glenfinnan, Spean Bridge, Lochaber, Lochailort, Glencoe, Corpach, Kinlochleven, Acharacle, Roy Bridge, Duror of Appin, Gairlochy, Inverlochy, Kentellan, Kilmelford, Kinlocheil, Caol, Banavie, Lochyside, Strontian, Glenaladale, Onich, Ballachulish, Kinlochmoidart, Glenuig, Lismore and Oban.
It is not the first time an earthquake has hit the area.
In 2011, a stronger 3.5-magnitude struck 25 miles west of Fort William in Glenuig.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28155679
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10945216/Nigel-Farage-to-stage-anti-independence-rally-days-before-Scottish-referendum.html
Many Thanks Peter
Labour Gain Peter Madeley Frist elected Labour councillor since 1996
Labour 187 24%
Lib Dem 143 18%
Green 67 9%
UKIP 126 17%
CON 131 17%
IND 120 16%
25% 774
Don't be to sure. If Cameron looks like a shoe in for the next election, the gap will narrow considerably.
Might not be enough for a YES win, but it will have a large effect
Let us say Scots vote yes, some Tories are going to try and stop Scotland sending MPs to Westminster in 2015.
So the number of seats up for grab is not 650, but 591, which buggers up the seat bands for example.
As regards UKIP, we may be seeing, as one would expect, a very gradual drift down from their Euros high, but we're looking for a small signal in a lot of noise, so it's best not to over-analyse changes over a few weeks.
I called it as a Tory hold from before they even called the election. Anyone who knew the constituency knew that was the case. And there is no evidence at all of any anti-UKIP vote in Newark.
Does the last decade count?
Newark was labour in 1950 through to 1979 and was Labour again in 1997.
In 2010 labour got 22% and LD 20%.
In the by election they got 18% and 3%
You are trying to tell me that there ws not tactical switching to the tories.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/tactical-voting-newark-by-election-analysis
' "My lifelong Labour mum is voting Tory today to keep Ukip out of Newark," the author Matt Haig said on Twitter on Thursday. '
This is a betting site - although I do not know anything about the niceties of betting - but surely when it comes to putting their money where their mouths are then people need to look at the clear way the voters have shown they will vote AGAINST ukip.
Bit of a setback for Williams, as the car needs quite a bit of work and the other's being driven by Susie Wolff (test driver) rather than Bottas.
Edited extra bit: ahem, Wolff isn't driving the car because it's also stopped. So, even worse for Williams.
Tony Jardin[sp] reckons Massa's car might not be fixed for P2.
Pensions are my favourite bugbear, where the original noble aim of trying to secure decent pots of money for old age has become a beast devouring time, resources, and money from businesses, way beyond the original intention I'm sure.
But yes, the information came directly from the ground from someone in a very, very good position to know. It referred specifically to voters in the Labour-friendly areas of the constituency.
We observe that that they cannot win a Westminster seat
- even in a by election, where they can run whomever they consider their best candidate
- even in a by election, where they can focus all their resources and are not as in a GE thinly spread
- even when the seat is up only because the incumbent has been jailed
- even when their only known face is the candidate, and the other plausibles have stood aside for him
It is as plain as a pikestaff that UKIP's problem is its members and its leader. Apart from that they're in good shape.
Robin Brant @robindbrant 10s
Mulcaire - the hacker - 6 months suspended and 200 hrs unpaid work
I guess the 'better together' lot will disown it.
My other guess is that once again Farage is after cheap free publicity. It will suit his purposes in England if he is seen being mobbed again by Scots.
The BettertogetherUKOKNothanks preference is to attend invitation-only events at secret locations, e.g. Dave yesterday. Even then it looks as if they had to drug the audience into servility.
http://tinyurl.com/qjpzdol
Newark was labour in 1950 through to 1979 and was Labour again in 1997.
In 2010 labour got 22% and LD 20%.
In the by election they got 18% and 3%
You are trying to tell me that there ws not tactical switching to the tories.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/06/tactical-voting-newark-by-election-analysis
' "My lifelong Labour mum is voting Tory today to keep Ukip out of Newark," the author Matt Haig said on Twitter on Thursday. '
This is a betting site - although I do not know anything about the niceties of betting - but surely when it comes to putting their money where their mouths are then people need to look at the clear way the voters have shown they will vote AGAINST ukip.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Didn't the Tory vote share go down? How does that tally with labour voters voting Tory to stop ukip?
In fact the combined labour and lib dem loss in vote share equals almost exactly the rise in ukip share! And people are saying the labs and dems voted against ukip!!!
I wonder if the BNP share dropped the same amount as UKIPs went up how id get on saying that the BNP vote didn't got to ukip!!, haha truly laughable
Mulcare served time after "the rogue reporter trial" while Coulson went on enjoying the high life. He can have no complaints now the same has happened to him.
NB if you use more engines than permitted in a season you get a sizeable grid penalty. Forget the exact number, but perhaps 10 slots.
Well now thats over what are the luvvies going to witter about over their flat whites ?
Six months for picking up six bottles of water from inside a shop with a previously smashed window is a long time as well?
If Scotland were leaving AIUI strictly they would still be entitled to vote in 2015 but GOK what the prospect of separation would do to voting intentions.
Con lost 8.9
Lab lost 4.6
LD lost 17.4
Ukip gained 22.1
If anything lab held up better than con, let alone lab voters going to con, how could there be tactical con voting if a all three shares went down, and con wasn't the most resilient? Makes no sense
Surely the most plausible outcome is a lot of cons stayed at home and a lot of lab and dem voted ukip
So he'll be out of prison mid November.
We certainly can. We only have to worry about the Governments hacking our phones now
Fun if you like short term partisan posing /pushing memes I guess, but futile really
Of course you are right, an example needed to be made.
It is just unfair on Coulson because,,,,,?
White Irish: 0.70
Gypsy/Irish traveller: 0.50
Black Caribbean: 0.43
Arab 0.34
Chinese 0.30
White British: 0.22
Black African: 0.22
Indian: 0.12
Pakistani: 0.08
Bangladeshi: 0.07
I found particularly interesting that Irish travellers and gypsies, who I have always thought were very segregated are actually one of the most open groups with their relationships. As expected, the Irish and Afro-Caribbeans are very integrated. The indigenous White British don't mix very well, while the numbers for south Asians are very poor. It seems we have a long way to go to improve integration.
His biggest problem is a potential purjury investigation north of the border. If convicted that could carry some serious jail time.
Jumping ahead of myself, but something to consider.
Prime ministerial engagements will preclude it.
Right than justice has been done, and no one is above the law.