LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures – politicalbetting.com

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

It's a slightly odd article in that it doesn't mention the UK at all. If there is a real effect, then why aren't we seeing it? I do wonder whether there is something in the theory put forward by a Danish doctor that it is something to do with incorrect vaccination technique (pinching the skin, rather than stretching it out).

I wouldn't be surprised, given the low absolute number - and, sadly, the NHS - if some such deaths were missed as being that particular condition.

Possibly, but I doubt it. Our 'yellow card' system is pretty good.

As deaths seem to be of those under 50 there is a fighting chance that the NHS would investigate further.

Andy_JS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Funny how we haven't had any of these problems in the UK despite tens of millions of people having had the AZ vaccine.

We have focussed AZN an the older population. This seems to be a side effect concentrated in younger women.

TimT said:

Andy_JS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Funny how we haven't had any of these problems in the UK despite tens of millions of people having had the AZ vaccine.

We have focussed AZN an the older population. This seems to be a side effect concentrated in younger women.

Plenty of young NHS workers have had the AZ jab.

Alanbrooke said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

we all like nice graphs

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1376843246966599684/photo/1

Look away Justin

No but you see in 1926, there was a similar observed trend and it led to Labour winning at some point in the future.

For those complacent Tories here, you may want to recall how popular John Major was at his peak. I'll let you into a secret, it was a lot higher than Bozo is now

so one shagger is more popular than another shagger

new balls please Edwina

Pass me the mind bleach

dixiedean said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1376897597462417412?s=21

What's the background behind that?

It is about NFA taken against Sinn Fein over the Bobby Storey funeral lockdown breaches last June.
Not sure it's a call to resign matter anywhere outwith NI.

Edit:
Not to mention it is the DPP who prosecutes of course.

No different than Cressida Dick

Whatever you do as chief constable there's always someone who doesnt agree

Gallowgate said:

TimT said:

Andy_JS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Funny how we haven't had any of these problems in the UK despite tens of millions of people having had the AZ vaccine.

We have focussed AZN an the older population. This seems to be a side effect concentrated in younger women.

Plenty of young NHS workers have had the AZ jab.

It would be really interesting to see some stats on who has been given which vaccine by both age and sex - and to compare the UK vs Germany in this regard.

I am on a call later today with a very qualified group here in the US, where this will be one of the issues discussed. It is a group of people with no money in the game so no reason why they'd be biased against AZN. But they are concerned and, while the jury is out on whether this is a causative link or not, they do feel the advice not to use AZN on younger populations is valid, given the availability of other options

https://twitter.com/SamJamesMorgan/status/1376805850157887491

Andy_JS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Funny how we haven't had any of these problems in the UK despite tens of millions of people having had the AZ vaccine.

"No cases of blood clots have been found in more than 440,000 people who have been vaccinated against coronavirus in Wales, a study has shown.

Research by Swansea University health data experts looked at vaccinations up to January with 180,000 AstraZeneca doses and 260,000 Pfizer-BioNtech."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56574100

TimT said:

Andy_JS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Funny how we haven't had any of these problems in the UK despite tens of millions of people having had the AZ vaccine.

We have focussed AZN an the older population. This seems to be a side effect concentrated in younger women.

We've jabbed over 5.3 million people under 50, and I'd expect over half of those to be women because of their higher representation in the NHS and amongst care providers. I'm not sure what the split AZ vs Pfizer is for that age group, but there must be a lot of AZs in there.

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

The unusual feature of the Covid vaccination is that it is a drug administered in huge numbers to a population that may, depending on the demographics, be healthy and very unlikely to die of the condition the drug is protecting against. Is it ethical to inject an individual who may have similar (albeit tiny) chances of being personally saved or killed by that injection? Especially if you have an alternative.

The issue doesn't apply to older and unhealthy people because they are much more likely to die of Covid and the chances of their lives being saved by the vaccine are much higher than the risk of dying from blood clots.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Non-billable hours, counselor!

UNLESS you can successfully suing OGH for extreme mental anguish and/or cruel & unusual punishment?

Mike has broadly kept LD voting to himself, so surely no case!

Andy_JS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Funny how we haven't had any of these problems in the UK despite tens of millions of people having had the AZ vaccine.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1376920934448300039?s=20

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

I still believe that WWC voters may have said Brexit was important to them, but the real deciding factor at the last GE was not wanting to endorse Corbyn.

Labour are absolutely in play for the next election but not really for an overall majority. The intricacies of that are interesting, and no less so because of Alba.

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

Except if Hartlepudlians (is that the term?) were willing to vote Tory to Get Brexit Done then this wouldn't have been a Lab hold in 2019.

BXP votes are not interchangeable with Tory votes. These are voters, probably lifelong Lab, who were so unwilling to vote Tory they wouldn't even do so to Get Brexit Done.

Some of that, yes. But outweighed by a lot of something else. The BXP vote were Hard Leavers. Just really hard hard leavers. They voted BXP because even Boris Johnson was not a proven Proper Bloke to them. Nigel Farage all day long. The real Mr Brexit. We're talking a very Ukippy nationalistic bunch here. That's why they voted BXP.

And now? Think about it. A proper hard Brexit has been delivered. Johnson has proven himself to them. Crucially, franked by their man. Farage has seen the Brexit and said that it is good. On top of this you have vaccines and over a year of "Boris being Boris" and Patel delivering what they want on immigration and Dishi Rishi's largesse and the Cons generally being 'national populist' and making all the requisite noises to push all the requisite buttons.

You really think these Hard Nationalistic Leavers of Hartlepool are now going to break for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour? Not in a million years. The Cons should be clear favourites here and I'm delighted with my evens on betfair and with you. You could almost pay up now.

That'll help tourism:

https://twitter.com/Frontex/status/1376875300311687168?s=20

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

The unusual feature of the Covid vaccination is that it is a drug administered in huge numbers to a population that may, depending on the demographics, be healthy and very unlikely to die of the condition the drug is protecting against. Is it ethical to inject an individual who may have similar (albeit tiny) chances of being personally saved or killed by that injection? Especially if you have an alternative.

The issue doesn't apply to older and unhealthy people because they are much more likely to die of Covid and the chances of their lives being saved by the vaccine are much higher than the risk of dying from blood clots.

Absolutely agree good point. People could be asked to take their chances and who could fault such an approach.

No problem as long as the vaccine is voluntary, which it is. In cases where you may have to have it for work reasons then the safety of others reasonably and properly comes into play. And if you can't get in the pub you will just have to go and drink with Tim Martin.

UK doses = 50.26 per 100 people.

https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/

CarlottaVance said:

That'll help tourism:

https://twitter.com/Frontex/status/1376875300311687168?s=20

Canada now needs a similar electronic visa even for transit. I have not used Air Canada since its introduction.

CarlottaVance said:

That'll help tourism:

https://twitter.com/Frontex/status/1376875300311687168?s=20

We need an eTA to visit our son in Vancouver and it is a simple electronic process

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

I still believe that WWC voters may have said Brexit was important to them, but the real deciding factor at the last GE was not wanting to endorse Corbyn.

Yes, I know you think that. Let's see what happens. If Labour pull off the upset it will lend credence to your view.

Theuniondivvie said:

Fuxake SCons, how did you end up with Doogie Ross?

Welsh Cons: hold my beer.

https://twitter.com/willpenrievans/status/1376930382306811904?s=20

RT is hopeless but in Wales Boris success with vaccines is likely to have an effect on the Senedd election

AlistairM said:

CarlottaVance said:

All heading in the right direction:

Hopeful early signs of cases declining again after flatlining for a month. School holidays will also I'm sure help.

Deaths are half what they were a week ago. Hopefully never see another day of triple-digit deaths again.

Compared to the first wave:

- Total patients in hospital are now at late June levels
- Ventilator cases are now at early June levels
- The rolling average daily death total is also now where it was in late June

And if the latter metric keeps coming down at about a third a week, as it has been doing for some considerable time now, then we should be down from a mean of about 55 per day now to around 10 per day by the end of April, which might result in a single figure reporting day happening as soon as the weekend after Easter. At the tail end of the first wave, the first such date was Sunday 12 July.

Nigel_Foremain said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

I am beginning to become concerned that some of this anti-AZ stuff is sinister. Are lobbyists or maybe even darker forces targeting the gullible and susceptible?

The AZ vaccine is apparently unpopular with both Europeans and Americans for different reasons. Europeans think it might be a risk to take, and American companies don't like the fact it's being offered at cost price.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1376933262954749953?s=20

Given that the eu has a rapidly developing history of passing laws that makes it unlikely for digital companies to spring up in the eu I am not sure that we should be that worried, similarly I cant see most space programs holding out for long against spaceX

https://twitter.com/SeanBurkeShow/status/1376583811367112710

Theuniondivvie said:

Fuxake SCons, how did you end up with Doogie Ross?

Welsh Cons: hold my beer.

https://twitter.com/willpenrievans/status/1376930382306811904?s=20

Looks like something from Pathe News back in the day.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

we all like nice graphs

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1376843246966599684/photo/1

Look away Justin

No but you see in 1926, there was a similar observed trend and it led to Labour winning at some point in the future.

For those complacent Tories here, you may want to recall how popular John Major was at his peak. I'll let you into a secret, it was a lot higher than Bozo is now

The last three Leadership Approval Polls gave a gross approval rating for Boris of 45%, 42% and 47% respectively. When was John Major last a lot higher than 47% saying they approve of his leadership?

Ah, I mentioned the words gullible and susceptible in a previous post and you are certain to appear.

Unlike you I am not inclined to spend hours pouring through Wikipedia to prove my point on PB, but as I recall the Daily Telegraph once did a headline that was based on their polling that stated "Major Now More Popular Than Churchill", so I confess I do have a certain amount of uncertainty that happens when one relies on experience rather than online information. That time was also in a time of crisis (first Gulf War), and my point is that Bozo is likely to be popular at the moment because we are in a crisis and people associate the vaccine roll out with him. They will have forgotten about it by the next GE. There will still be the odd gullible keyboard warrior that will be saying "the vaccines, the vaccines" as they lament at the ingratitude to their most unlikely fuhrer and messiah

So you were lying and making up claims. Gotcha.

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

The unusual feature of the Covid vaccination is that it is a drug administered in huge numbers to a population that may, depending on the demographics, be healthy and very unlikely to die of the condition the drug is protecting against. Is it ethical to inject an individual who may have similar (albeit tiny) chances of being personally saved or killed by that injection? Especially if you have an alternative.

The issue doesn't apply to older and unhealthy people because they are much more likely to die of Covid and the chances of their lives being saved by the vaccine are much higher than the risk of dying from blood clots.

Absolutely agree good point. People could be asked to take their chances and who could fault such an approach.

Agreed, and perhaps you are deliberately hinting at exactly this, but wasn't that exact same philosophy behind risk segmentation – which was trashed as an idea on here by FF43 and several others like him who now seem to be arguing for vaccine segmentation?

Not sure what I am supposed to have trashed, but let me set out my stall. You can't segment virus transmission. Healthy young people who are unlikely to die from the disease (although they can be made horribly ill by it) will and do transmit it to those that are much more likely to die. Which is why we want the whole population vaccinated and why the whole population has been required to maintain non-medical interventions to date. For this purpose the AstraZeneca vaccine is just as good as any other. The ethical question is a narrow one of personal risk that can be solved easily by applying a different vaccine.

You could make an argument, that the burden of the non-medical interventions on young and healthy individuals is so egregious compared with the risk to them of dying from the disease that we should have let the epidemic rip to all age groups (given that no age group can wholly self-isolate). I don't agree with it, but that is the trade-off as I understand it.

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

Except if Hartlepudlians (is that the term?) were willing to vote Tory to Get Brexit Done then this wouldn't have been a Lab hold in 2019.

BXP votes are not interchangeable with Tory votes. These are voters, probably lifelong Lab, who were so unwilling to vote Tory they wouldn't even do so to Get Brexit Done.

Some of that, yes. But outweighed by a lot of something else. The BXP vote were Hard Leavers. Just really hard hard leavers. They voted BXP because even Boris Johnson was not a proven Proper Bloke to them. Nigel Farage all day long. The real Mr Brexit. We're talking a very Ukippy nationalistic bunch here. That's why they voted BXP.

And now? Think about it. A proper hard Brexit has been delivered. Johnson has proven himself to them. Crucially, franked by their man. Farage has seen the Brexit and said that it is good. On top of this you have vaccines and over a year of "Boris being Boris" and Patel delivering what they want on immigration and Dishi Rishi's largesse and the Cons generally being 'national populist' and making all the requisite noises to push all the requisite buttons.

You really think these Hard Nationalistic Leavers of Hartlepool are now going to break for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour? Not in a million years. The Cons should be clear favourites here and I'm delighted with my evens on betfair and with you. You could almost pay up now.

It seems to me that lots won't vote; that hard Brexiteers of a non political tradition have nothing much to turn out for; that the Brexit party vote that turns out will divide Lab/Tory and cancel out; that nationally Labour is a few points ahead of the game compared with 2019 and that therefore Labour should scrape home. If they don't there will be a lot an analysing to do of a group of people, monkey hangers and friends, who, like Amazonian tribesmen, don't easily open up to analysis. Which is why they are among the world's finest.

(BTW what does Boycott think of Yorkshire's outfit? To say nothing of the spirit if Fred Trueman)

Speaking of Boycott, where will the NIP vote come from and how big will it be? They are standing an ex Lab person, I think.

Andy_JS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1376934987929374722?s=20
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1376934989804240897?s=20

What's to stop the other political parties doing the same thing? Setting up second parties in order to win list seats.

Doesn't help them - in fact quite the reverse.
It's a ploy for a party that can win big on the constituency vote which would otherwise be offset by the proportionality requirement taking the contituency + list together. Alba neutralises this offset.

kinabalu said:

Omnium said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Of course I might be wrong.

Great post.

- We'll see on May 6th how great it was.

Don't do that 'May 6th' lark Mr K - It's '6th May'. I'll be keeping an eye on my overseas properties with you around.

Interesting one. I just type it as I say it. And I say it that way - month first. Not sure why. I just do. Bit like I always put my left sock on first.

I won't pry into your sock choices. I'd go for the same on both feet, but not that worried.

How would you describe the dates of Xmas or April Fools'?

"December the 25th" seems very American to me.

'Remember, remember the 5th of November' - obviously works better in the rhyme, but just seems better.

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

The unusual feature of the Covid vaccination is that it is a drug administered in huge numbers to a population that may, depending on the demographics, be healthy and very unlikely to die of the condition the drug is protecting against. Is it ethical to inject an individual who may have similar (albeit tiny) chances of being personally saved or killed by that injection? Especially if you have an alternative.

The issue doesn't apply to older and unhealthy people because they are much more likely to die of Covid and the chances of their lives being saved by the vaccine are much higher than the risk of dying from blood clots.

But vaccines slow the spread, as well as protect, so unless you are proposing to permanently separate the older population from the young...

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1376937645343977477

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Isn't that Germany basically following France?

Using ordinal indicators in dates is archaic, full stop. No newspapers do it and haven't for years.

So 2 April or April 2 – not 2nd April, April the 2nd, the 2nd of April, or April 2nd. How you say it is personal choice, but kill the clutter in text please.

TimT said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TOPPING said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

I am beginning to become concerned that some of this anti-AZ stuff is sinister. Are lobbyists or maybe even darker forces targeting the gullible and susceptible?

There are side effects. Vanishingly small chances of one it seems. But side effects which, as the article suggests, can't be ignored.

I suppose the problem is that regulators don't want to open the Pandora's Box of saying "you think the AZN Covid jab is dangerous, wait til you learn of the possibility and incidence of the side effects of [hugely popular well known drug taken by zillions around the world]."

Indeed, though it is obvious to say it (and I have worked in healthcare most of my career), I am not aware of any drug or device that does not have side effects or occasional adverse events. I think the public should be reminded of this. Any individual who is scared of a 1 in 100000 event should refuse all medication, particularly and including OTC drugs such as asparin and the contraceptive pill. If they do so they may discover alternative risks.

If aspirin were developed today, it would not be permitted onto the market. The side effects of the smallpox vaccine are quite horrific by today's standards. But it rid the world of a terrible scourge.

Apparently the U.S. has stockpiled enough Smallpox vaccine to vaccinate the entire country.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/vaccines/Smallpox-Vaccine.html

https://twitter.com/Jim_Edwards/status/1376940157442609154

MarqueeMark said:

kinabalu said:

algarkirk said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

Except if Hartlepudlians (is that the term?) were willing to vote Tory to Get Brexit Done then this wouldn't have been a Lab hold in 2019.

BXP votes are not interchangeable with Tory votes. These are voters, probably lifelong Lab, who were so unwilling to vote Tory they wouldn't even do so to Get Brexit Done.

Some of that, yes. But outweighed by a lot of something else. The BXP vote were Hard Leavers. Just really hard hard leavers. They voted BXP because even Boris Johnson was not a proven Proper Bloke to them. Nigel Farage all day long. The real Mr Brexit. We're talking a very Ukippy nationalistic bunch here. That's why they voted BXP.

And now? Think about it. A proper hard Brexit has been delivered. Johnson has proven himself to them. Crucially, franked by their man. Farage has seen the Brexit and said that it is good. On top of this you have vaccines and over a year of "Boris being Boris" and Patel delivering what they want on immigration and Dishi Rishi's largesse and the Cons generally being 'national populist' and making all the requisite noises to push all the requisite buttons.

You really think these Hard Nationalistic Leavers of Hartlepool are now going to break for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour? Not in a million years. The Cons should be clear favourites here and I'm delighted with my evens on betfair and with you. You could almost pay up now.

It seems to me that lots won't vote; that hard Brexiteers of a non political tradition have nothing much to turn out for; that the Brexit party vote that turns out will divide Lab/Tory and cancel out; that nationally Labour is a few points ahead of the game compared with 2019 and that therefore Labour should scrape home. If they don't there will be a lot an analysing to do of a group of people, monkey hangers and friends, who, like Amazonian tribesmen, don't easily open up to analysis. Which is why they are among the world's finest.

(BTW what does Boycott think of Yorkshire's outfit? To say nothing of the spirit if Fred Trueman)

Speaking of Boycott, where will the NIP vote come from and how big will it be? They are standing an ex Lab person, I think.

I can see them getting more votes than the Tory majority.....

A 900 vote Tory majority then.

"Risk of bleeds and death with daily aspirin use higher than thought

Research suggests 3,000 people die a year in UK from long-term use of aspirin or similar drugs, but also taking heartburn medication could help reduce risk"

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/14/risk-of-bleeds-and-death-with-daily-aspirin-use-higher-than-thought

Read the thread.

https://twitter.com/patricksturg/status/1376848699096195076?s=21

Theuniondivvie said:

Fuxake SCons, how did you end up with Doogie Ross?

Welsh Cons: hold my beer.

https://twitter.com/willpenrievans/status/1376930382306811904?s=20

For anyone doubting Drakeford's competence, along comes RT to confirm that even the dire status quo is better than the alternative.

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

It's a slightly odd article in that it doesn't mention the UK at all. If there is a real effect, then why aren't we seeing it? I do wonder whether there is something in the theory put forward by a Danish doctor that it is something to do with incorrect vaccination technique (pinching the skin, rather than stretching it out).

I wouldn't be surprised, given the low absolute number - and, sadly, the NHS - if some such deaths were missed as being that particular condition.

Possibly, but I doubt it. Our 'yellow card' system is pretty good.

As deaths seem to be of those under 50 there is a fighting chance that the NHS would investigate further.

I saw a patient earlier this week with spontaneous bruising since the AZN 4 weeks ago. Nothing dangerous so far, haematology investigations underway.

Interestingly she had mild covid in the first wave.

I went through Rhos on Sea along the promenade this afternoon and everywhere including the beaches were full of people, with families, children, dogs, cyclists , and full car parks, so much so I diverted away to join the A55 to go to Abergele

It is perfectly obvious few if any are listening to the politicians and have decided to claim freedom

Indeed B & Q was packed with customers, especially the garden centre

The genie is out of the bottle and we have to hope the vaccine success prevents any adverse effects

Pagan2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1376933262954749953?s=20

Given that the eu has a rapidly developing history of passing laws that makes it unlikely for digital companies to spring up in the eu I am not sure that we should be that worried, similarly I cant see most space programs holding out for long against spaceX

Time for a deeper connection with Switzerland?

Of the top 25 research Universities in Europe, 11 are in the UK or Switzerland, according to THE.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I went through Rhos on Sea along the promenade this afternoon and everywhere including the beaches were full of people, with families, children, dogs, cyclists , and full car parks, so much so I diverted away to join the A55 to go to Abergele

It is perfectly obvious few if any are listening to the politicians and have decided to claim freedom

Indeed B & Q was packed with customers, especially the garden centre

The genie is out of the bottle and we have to hope the vaccine success prevents any adverse effects

I read all the way to the bottom in full expectation of some Big G pearl-clutching.

I think it’s great that people are breaking out.

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I went through Rhos on Sea along the promenade this afternoon and everywhere including the beaches were full of people, with families, children, dogs, cyclists , and full car parks, so much so I diverted away to join the A55 to go to Abergele

It is perfectly obvious few if any are listening to the politicians and have decided to claim freedom

Indeed B & Q was packed with customers, especially the garden centre

The genie is out of the bottle and we have to hope the vaccine success prevents any adverse effects

I read all the way to the bottom in full expectation of some Big G pearl-clutching.

I think it’s great that people are breaking out.

Not when one is trying to get home after a day of socially distanced work it isn't, and the queues to and from the beach are five miles long. Big G is right!

Racist cops in Northern Ireland?

I AM SHOCKED.

Police in Northern Ireland are stopping and detaining a disproportionate number of black, Asian and mixed race travellers under anti-terrorism laws, according to newly disclosed data.

More than a third of those stopped and three-quarters of those detained in 2019 were not white, said a report by Jonathan Hall QC, who conducted an independent review of the UK’s terrorism legislation.

Of 559 stops of travellers in 2019, 55% were white, almost a quarter were categorised as Asian or Chinese and 14% were black or of mixed race.

More than 98% of Northern Ireland’s population is white, according to the 2011 census.

Of the 31 travellers detained under terrorism legislation, just 13% were white while a quarter were black or of mixed race and just over half were categorised as Asian, Chinese or other.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/30/northern-ireland-psni-stopping-and-detaining-non-white-travellers-disproportionately-data-finds

TheScreamingEagles said:

Racist cops in Northern Ireland?

I AM SHOCKED.

Police in Northern Ireland are stopping and detaining a disproportionate number of black, Asian and mixed race travellers under anti-terrorism laws, according to newly disclosed data.

More than a third of those stopped and three-quarters of those detained in 2019 were not white, said a report by Jonathan Hall QC, who conducted an independent review of the UK’s terrorism legislation.

Of 559 stops of travellers in 2019, 55% were white, almost a quarter were categorised as Asian or Chinese and 14% were black or of mixed race.

More than 98% of Northern Ireland’s population is white, according to the 2011 census.

Of the 31 travellers detained under terrorism legislation, just 13% were white while a quarter were black or of mixed race and just over half were categorised as Asian, Chinese or other.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/30/northern-ireland-psni-stopping-and-detaining-non-white-travellers-disproportionately-data-finds

How disproportionate is that?

What proportion of travelling terrorists are white, black or Asian and other nowadays?

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Racist cops in Northern Ireland?

I AM SHOCKED.

Police in Northern Ireland are stopping and detaining a disproportionate number of black, Asian and mixed race travellers under anti-terrorism laws, according to newly disclosed data.

More than a third of those stopped and three-quarters of those detained in 2019 were not white, said a report by Jonathan Hall QC, who conducted an independent review of the UK’s terrorism legislation.

Of 559 stops of travellers in 2019, 55% were white, almost a quarter were categorised as Asian or Chinese and 14% were black or of mixed race.

More than 98% of Northern Ireland’s population is white, according to the 2011 census.

Of the 31 travellers detained under terrorism legislation, just 13% were white while a quarter were black or of mixed race and just over half were categorised as Asian, Chinese or other.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/30/northern-ireland-psni-stopping-and-detaining-non-white-travellers-disproportionately-data-finds

How disproportionate is that?

What proportion of travelling terrorists are white, black or Asian and other nowadays?

In Northern Ireland?

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Racist cops in Northern Ireland?

I AM SHOCKED.

Police in Northern Ireland are stopping and detaining a disproportionate number of black, Asian and mixed race travellers under anti-terrorism laws, according to newly disclosed data.

More than a third of those stopped and three-quarters of those detained in 2019 were not white, said a report by Jonathan Hall QC, who conducted an independent review of the UK’s terrorism legislation.

Of 559 stops of travellers in 2019, 55% were white, almost a quarter were categorised as Asian or Chinese and 14% were black or of mixed race.

More than 98% of Northern Ireland’s population is white, according to the 2011 census.

Of the 31 travellers detained under terrorism legislation, just 13% were white while a quarter were black or of mixed race and just over half were categorised as Asian, Chinese or other.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/30/northern-ireland-psni-stopping-and-detaining-non-white-travellers-disproportionately-data-finds

How disproportionate is that?

What proportion of travelling terrorists are white, black or Asian and other nowadays?

In Northern Ireland?

Yes. What are the terrorism conviction figures in Northern Ireland like nowadays?

I don't know. I would expect it to be different to what it was like when the IRA detonated bombs in Bridge Street killing two children, and all the other atrocities. But I don't know how different.