LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures – politicalbetting.com

System

LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures – politicalbetting.com

The betdata.io chart of the Betfair market tells its own story. After the vacancy in the seat was triggered punters made LAB and the Tories almost level pegging. Now that edged has out and in the latest version of the chart the Tories are 11% behind in the betting.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Oooh

eek

Those Tory odds are a good deal for a sure thing.

TheScreamingEagles

Any news on if Tice is standing?

That's the major known unknown.

If he stands Lab hold is my guess, if he doesn't then the Tories should be favourite, although picking Jill Mortimer as their candidate is a sign they've given up on the seat already.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Any news on if Tice is standing?

That's the major known unknown.

If he stands Lab hold is my guess, if he doesn't then the Tories should be favourite, although picking Jill Mortimer as their candidate is a sign they've given up on the seat already.

Guido reports he isn't standing.

BluestBlue

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

TheScreamingEagles

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

felix

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

OMG Aren't we allowed to discuss how boring some threads are now?

MarqueeMark

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

OMG Aren't we allowed to discuss how boring some threads are now?

Threads are fine. Discussing how boring Radiohead are, on the other hand.....

BluestBlue

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

londonpubman

LAB nailed on to win Hartlepool

As I believe I have posted on here consistently before...

Floater

The head of the World Health Organization has suggested that an investigation into whether a laboratory-related incident played a role in the origins of the pandemic was "not extensive enough".

In remarks given to member states during a briefing on a highly-anticipated report on the emergence of Covid-19, which have been published on the WHO's website, Dr Tedros insisted that "as far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table".

He suggested that "further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions" on whether an accidental lab-related event was a factor in the early spread of Covid-19.The director-general also criticised China for withholding data from international scientists.

"In my discussions with the team, they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data. I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing," Dr Tedros said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-lockdown-uk-rules-vaccine-novavax-latest/

So the point of this trumpeted report is what, to provide cover for the PRC?

Northern_Al

FPT: Reluctant though I am to join in a rubbish debate, the litter one on the previous thread started with CR bemoaning the hypocrisy of the (Nottingham) young leaving their park desecrated while proclaiming love for the environment. Other posters then cited the disgraceful state of country walks, country parks, roadside verges and so on, all of which strike me as venues not particularly frequented by the young.

So, in fact, it is proven (via my own observations) that the worst litter offenders are males, drivers, aged between around 30 and 50. Yes, the young are guilty too, but they are merely following the examples of their older brethren; in fact most young people try scrupulously not to leave litter. In other words, stop blaming the young for everything.

I'm now going to visit the heaving beach 200 yards from where I live and may report back later. In advance, I predict the bins will be overflowing because there aren't enough of them.

FF43

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1376898206320168961?s=20

The issue, as I understand it, is an ethical one. As a young person you are unlikely to die of a bloodclot event following an Astrazeneca innoculation (possibly a 1 in 100 000 scale event). You are also unlikely to die from Covid (less than 1 in 10 000 in the UK so far). The problem is for those young individuals the number of Covid deaths prevented isn't massively greater than the number of bloodclot deaths incurred, even though both numbers are very small and there is a much benefit for the community in suppressing the virus. With a choice of vaccines you can choose a different medication for the younger group and the ethical issue goes away.

The calculation for older people is different because the probability of Covid death being avoided is much greater.

Gallowgate

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

BannedinnParis

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

stop helping them.

TimT

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1376898206320168961?s=20

The issue, as I understand it, is an ethical one. As a young person you are unlikely to die of a bloodclot event following an Astrazeneca innoculation (possibly a 1 in 100 000 scale event). You are also unlikely to die from Covid (less than 1 in 10 000 in the UK so far). The problem is for those young individuals the number of Covid deaths prevented isn't massively greater than the number of bloodclot deaths incurred, even though both numbers are very small and there is a much benefit for the community in suppressing the virus. With a choice of vaccines you can choose a different medication for the younger group and the ethical issue goes away.

The calculation for older people is different because the probability of Covid death being avoided is much greater.

As I posted yesterday, in a world of multiple vaccines, reserving AZN for crusties, or even male crusties, makes a lot of sense given the data coming out of Germany.

It also casts doubt on the role of AZN as saviour of the developing world, where populations are much younger on average.

felix

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

While I can see how it might happen, all my knowledge of the area makes me expect a hold on a low turnout. Be very happy to be wrong but I don't see it. Equally I cannot see it as being important unless the margin is large - either way.

Nigelb

A step towards a universal flu vaccine.

https://twitter.com/KingLabIPD/status/1374777112171663364

BluestBlue

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

The laws of political gravity are still assumed to apply, even if they suffered some severe bending in GE2019: historical precedent makes it vastly more likely that the Opposition should be depriving the Government of its heartland seats in the middle of a Parliament, rather than the other way round. If Labour can't hold Hartlepool, then they might as well give up and go home.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Any news on if Tice is standing?

That's the major known unknown.

If he stands Lab hold is my guess, if he doesn't then the Tories should be favourite, although picking Jill Mortimer as their candidate is a sign they've given up on the seat already.

Guido says Tice is standing in London.

His source is Lawrence Fox though, who they interviewed but LF didn’t embargo.

https://order-order.com/2021/03/30/fox-blows-reform-uk-london-election-launch/

londonpubman

Just in case no one is aware - Sadiq has a good chance of winning in London

TimT

Floater said:

The head of the World Health Organization has suggested that an investigation into whether a laboratory-related incident played a role in the origins of the pandemic was "not extensive enough".

In remarks given to member states during a briefing on a highly-anticipated report on the emergence of Covid-19, which have been published on the WHO's website, Dr Tedros insisted that "as far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table".

He suggested that "further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions" on whether an accidental lab-related event was a factor in the early spread of Covid-19.The director-general also criticised China for withholding data from international scientists.

"In my discussions with the team, they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data. I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing," Dr Tedros said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-lockdown-uk-rules-vaccine-novavax-latest/

So the point of this trumpeted report is what, to provide cover for the PRC?

Actually, from a WHO perspective, it seems the point is to criticize PRC for not sharing its raw data adequately, a recurring problem that occurred with SARS also, and is against PRC's obligations under the International Health Regulations to report on outbreaks with potential for cross-border impacts.

TheScreamingEagles

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

TheWhiteRabbit

These odds make a lot more sense to me than what Shadsy opened with, which I think was 6/4 Labour. With odds boots I got 31/20, but alas, only a tenner on.

Gallowgate

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Nigelb

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Note Germany is claiming nine possibly linked deaths.
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1376859903030071301

TheWhiteRabbit

I haven't hit my lifetime allowance on BF.

I assume that £1,000 on Khan at 1/20 only counts as £50 for that purpose as well as any?

Sandpit

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Spot the trainee lawyer!

Remember to count in six-minute intervals, with every post more than six minutes apart counting individually, and aggregating.

FF43

TimT said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1376898206320168961?s=20

The issue, as I understand it, is an ethical one. As a young person you are unlikely to die of a bloodclot event following an Astrazeneca innoculation (possibly a 1 in 100 000 scale event). You are also unlikely to die from Covid (less than 1 in 10 000 in the UK so far). The problem is for those young individuals the number of Covid deaths prevented isn't massively greater than the number of bloodclot deaths incurred, even though both numbers are very small and there is a much benefit for the community in suppressing the virus. With a choice of vaccines you can choose a different medication for the younger group and the ethical issue goes away.

The calculation for older people is different because the probability of Covid death being avoided is much greater.

As I posted yesterday, in a world of multiple vaccines, reserving AZN for crusties, or even male crusties, makes a lot of sense given the data coming out of Germany.

It also casts doubt on the role of AZN as saviour of the developing world, where populations are much younger on average.

The moral issue gets tricky for the developing world, as they won't have a choice of vaccines. Vaccinating younger healthy people even with the risk of blood clots is definitely worth it to keep the population safe. And on the balance of risk you are still ahead: your own life is more likely to be saved than extinguished, albeit both are low probability events,

TheScreamingEagles

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Break it into six minute blocks then only share the total time spent, it'll be useful for your new career.

TheWhiteRabbit

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Spot the trainee lawyer!

Remember to count in six-minute intervals, with every post more than six minutes apart counting individually, and aggregating.

Knocked down 30% on assessment...

MarqueeMark

Floater said:

The head of the World Health Organization has suggested that an investigation into whether a laboratory-related incident played a role in the origins of the pandemic was "not extensive enough".

In remarks given to member states during a briefing on a highly-anticipated report on the emergence of Covid-19, which have been published on the WHO's website, Dr Tedros insisted that "as far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table".

He suggested that "further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions" on whether an accidental lab-related event was a factor in the early spread of Covid-19.The director-general also criticised China for withholding data from international scientists.

"In my discussions with the team, they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data. I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing," Dr Tedros said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-lockdown-uk-rules-vaccine-novavax-latest/

So the point of this trumpeted report is what, to provide cover for the PRC?

The WHO team were given restricted access to venues and personnel, 9+ months after the event.

Yeah, that was always going to get to the bottom of things.....

Sandpit

TimT said:

Floater said:

The head of the World Health Organization has suggested that an investigation into whether a laboratory-related incident played a role in the origins of the pandemic was "not extensive enough".

In remarks given to member states during a briefing on a highly-anticipated report on the emergence of Covid-19, which have been published on the WHO's website, Dr Tedros insisted that "as far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table".

He suggested that "further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions" on whether an accidental lab-related event was a factor in the early spread of Covid-19.The director-general also criticised China for withholding data from international scientists.

"In my discussions with the team, they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data. I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing," Dr Tedros said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-lockdown-uk-rules-vaccine-novavax-latest/

So the point of this trumpeted report is what, to provide cover for the PRC?

Actually, from a WHO perspective, it seems the point is to criticize PRC for not sharing its raw data adequately, a recurring problem that occurred with SARS also, and is against PRC's obligations under the International Health Regulations to report on outbreaks with potential for cross-border impacts.

What sanctions are available though, given the failure has cost the worldwide economy $trillions on this occasion?

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/SeanBurkeShow/status/1376583811367112710?s=20

Stuartinromford

TimT said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1376898206320168961?s=20

The issue, as I understand it, is an ethical one. As a young person you are unlikely to die of a bloodclot event following an Astrazeneca innoculation (possibly a 1 in 100 000 scale event). You are also unlikely to die from Covid (less than 1 in 10 000 in the UK so far). The problem is for those young individuals the number of Covid deaths prevented isn't massively greater than the number of bloodclot deaths incurred, even though both numbers are very small and there is a much benefit for the community in suppressing the virus. With a choice of vaccines you can choose a different medication for the younger group and the ethical issue goes away.

The calculation for older people is different because the probability of Covid death being avoided is much greater.

As I posted yesterday, in a world of multiple vaccines, reserving AZN for crusties, or even male crusties, makes a lot of sense given the data coming out of Germany.

It also casts doubt on the role of AZN as saviour of the developing world, where populations are much younger on average.

On top of which, the safe storage temperature for the Pfizer vaccine has increased from ultracold to normal cold.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Spot the trainee lawyer!

Remember to count in six-minute intervals, with every post more than six minutes apart counting individually, and aggregating.

Don't forget travel time and disbursements.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1376912111180394497?s=20

SirNorfolkPassmore

TheScreamingEagles said:

Any news on if Tice is standing?

That's the major known unknown.

If he stands Lab hold is my guess, if he doesn't then the Tories should be favourite, although picking Jill Mortimer as their candidate is a sign they've given up on the seat already.

Would Tice standing boost Reform that much compared with another candidate for them?

I know they did well there in 2019 with him as candidate, but he's not a "Mr Hartlepool" figure as far as I'm aware, and query whether he personally has a significant following in the town, or whether people were simply voting for the Brexit Party (as was).

I mean someone like Nigel Farage is clearly a very well known figure, but query whether the name Richard Tice is really on a lot of lips in Hartlepool or anywhere else. Remember, we're abnormal as politics junkies. But even then I'm not sure that many of us would be able to pick Richard Tice out of a police line-up.

Nigelb

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Refund = S - (h x Ghr)

Where S is the cost of your initial subscription, h the number of hours you've spent here, and Ghr the Gallowgate hourly rate...

I think you owe Mike around £130k
But that could be a couple of orders of magnitude out.

OldKingCole

Are these Labour people voting with their hearts, not their heads. Happens in all forms of uniformed gambling. Informed gamblers, course, eventually get banned by the bookies.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/jaystoll/status/1376875354158157836

Cookie

On thread - the reason there has been more betting on Labour surely reflects the very generous opening odds on Labour holding. You have to be a certain sort of informed punter to bet on by-elections - you bet on value.
I reckon the odds have shifted to where they are about right now.

FrancisUrquhart

BBC News - Captain Underpants: Children's book withdrawn over 'passive racism'

The book follows about a pair of friends who travel from 500,001 B.C. to 2222, where they meet a martial arts instructor who teaches them kung fu and they learn principles found in Chinese philosophy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-56577725

Sounds harmless enough....I wonder what specific racist content it had?

MarqueeMark

Nigelb said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Refund = S - (h x Ghr)

Where S is the cost of your initial subscription, h the number of hours you've spent here, and Ghr the Gallowgate hourly rate...

I think you owe Mike around £130k
But that could be a couple of orders of magnitude out.

£13m??? 😮

Floater

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

The head of the World Health Organization has suggested that an investigation into whether a laboratory-related incident played a role in the origins of the pandemic was "not extensive enough".

In remarks given to member states during a briefing on a highly-anticipated report on the emergence of Covid-19, which have been published on the WHO's website, Dr Tedros insisted that "as far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table".

He suggested that "further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions" on whether an accidental lab-related event was a factor in the early spread of Covid-19.The director-general also criticised China for withholding data from international scientists.

"In my discussions with the team, they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data. I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing," Dr Tedros said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-lockdown-uk-rules-vaccine-novavax-latest/

So the point of this trumpeted report is what, to provide cover for the PRC?

The WHO team were given restricted access to venues and personnel, 9+ months after the event.

Yeah, that was always going to get to the bottom of things.....

Who else remembers Tyson telling us about how open the Chinese were being ......


LOL

LindonLight

eek said:

Those Tory odds are a good deal for a sure thing.

Yep I'm not sure the tories will do it but that's attractive.

MarqueeMark

The question on Tice is

a ) will he stand again?

b ) will he recommend a party to vote for if not?

c ) will anybody listen to him?

Nigelb

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Refund = S - (h x Ghr)

Where S is the cost of your initial subscription, h the number of hours you've spent here, and Ghr the Gallowgate hourly rate...

I think you owe Mike around £130k
But that could be a couple of orders of magnitude out.

£13m??? 😮

Would keep the site going for a couple of months at the very least.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I thought you run things here (mostly!).

TheScreamingEagles

I know we've talked a lot about NFTs and I've been flagging up why banks and other financial services companies won't touch them, I'm fully expecting Mastercard and Visa to exclude NFTs from Section 75 as a minimum.

People's Expensive NFTs Keep Vanishing. This Is Why.

“There was no history of my ever purchasing it, or ever owning it,” said one confused NFT buyer. “Now there’s nothing. My money’s gone.”

Last month, Tom Kuennen, a property manager from Ontario, coughed up $500 worth of cryptocurrency for a JPEG of an Elon Musk-themed “Moon Ticket” from DarpaLabs, an anonymous digital art collective. He purchased it through the marketplace OpenSea, one of the largest vendors of so-called non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, in the hopes of reselling it for a profit.

“It’s like a casino,” he said in an interview. “If it goes up 100 times you resell it, if it doesn't, well, you don’t tell anyone.”

He never got the chance to find out. A week later, he opened up his digital “wallet,” where the artwork would supposedly be available, and was faced with an ominous banner reading, “This page has gone off grid. We’ve got a 404 error and explored deep and wide, but we can’t find the page you’re looking for.”

The artwork, which he expected to be on the page, had disappeared entirely. “There was no history of my ever purchasing it, or ever owning it,” he said. “Now there’s nothing. My money’s gone.”

Was it a glitch? A hack? Did Kuennen perhaps misunderstand how, exactly, NFTs work and how they’re stored? You can’t blame him; over the past few months, numerous individuals have complained about their NFTs going “missing,” “disappearing,” or becoming otherwise unavailable on social media. This despite the oft-repeated NFT sales pitch: that NFT artworks are logged immutably, and irreversibly, onto the Ethereum blockchain.

So why would an NFT go missing? The answer, it turns out, points to the complex working of NFTs that are often misunderstood even by the people willing to shell out large sums for them.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkdj79/peoples-expensive-nfts-keep-vanishing-this-is-why

In short kids, avoid NFTs.

algarkirk

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Spot the trainee lawyer!

Remember to count in six-minute intervals, with every post more than six minutes apart counting individually, and aggregating.

Is it still £500 an hour + VAT or am I out of date?

Richard_Nabavi

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

Well if you don't like it here you can always contact Mike for your refund.

I clearly need to come up with a formula to value the time I've spent on here for refund purposes.

Spot the trainee lawyer!

Remember to count in six-minute intervals, with every post more than six minutes apart counting individually, and aggregating.

And to charge several of us for the same six-minute slot.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1376897597462417412?s=21

Pulpstar

TheWhiteRabbit said:

I haven't hit my lifetime allowance on BF.

I assume that £1,000 on Khan at 1/20 only counts as £50 for that purpose as well as any?

yes

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1376919352193212416?s=21

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/Kate_M_Proctor/status/1376870030512635906

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1376913456952147978

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

I know we've talked a lot about NFTs and I've been flagging up why banks and other financial services companies won't touch them, I'm fully expecting Mastercard and Visa to exclude NFTs from Section 75 as a minimum.

People's Expensive NFTs Keep Vanishing. This Is Why.

“There was no history of my ever purchasing it, or ever owning it,” said one confused NFT buyer. “Now there’s nothing. My money’s gone.”

Last month, Tom Kuennen, a property manager from Ontario, coughed up $500 worth of cryptocurrency for a JPEG of an Elon Musk-themed “Moon Ticket” from DarpaLabs, an anonymous digital art collective. He purchased it through the marketplace OpenSea, one of the largest vendors of so-called non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, in the hopes of reselling it for a profit.

“It’s like a casino,” he said in an interview. “If it goes up 100 times you resell it, if it doesn't, well, you don’t tell anyone.”

He never got the chance to find out. A week later, he opened up his digital “wallet,” where the artwork would supposedly be available, and was faced with an ominous banner reading, “This page has gone off grid. We’ve got a 404 error and explored deep and wide, but we can’t find the page you’re looking for.”

The artwork, which he expected to be on the page, had disappeared entirely. “There was no history of my ever purchasing it, or ever owning it,” he said. “Now there’s nothing. My money’s gone.”

Was it a glitch? A hack? Did Kuennen perhaps misunderstand how, exactly, NFTs work and how they’re stored? You can’t blame him; over the past few months, numerous individuals have complained about their NFTs going “missing,” “disappearing,” or becoming otherwise unavailable on social media. This despite the oft-repeated NFT sales pitch: that NFT artworks are logged immutably, and irreversibly, onto the Ethereum blockchain.

So why would an NFT go missing? The answer, it turns out, points to the complex working of NFTs that are often misunderstood even by the people willing to shell out large sums for them.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkdj79/peoples-expensive-nfts-keep-vanishing-this-is-why

In short kids, avoid NFTs.

Apparently in the wild west of NFTs there is basically two kinds. One that is I have bought the equivalent of a panini sticker, its juat a thing that you bought but have no rights over. However, that bit of art thst sold for million via NFT is a different category. The people who bought it have not only got the art, but the rights / control over its reproduction. Now that's quite interesting, because you have proof that a) you own the art, b) its the real bit of art and c) that you have the rights to monetize it / charge others.

The craziest one for me if the NBA TopShot NFTs. You buy video highlights, but you have absolutely no rights over them and you can see them for free via YouTube or if you have a subscription to the NBA streaming coverage.

eek

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1376897597462417412?s=21

What's the background behind that?

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1376919352193212416?s=21

Surely you could have posted the tweet from Dave Keating showing that?

Oh, ah.

Scott_xP

TheScreamingEagles said:

In short kids, avoid NFTs.

https://twitter.com/robertwolf32/status/1376129780299534336

TOPPING

OK wrong thread before. Fuck it's hot. Parks ram packed. Bring on the Easter snow.

TimT

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1376919352193212416?s=21

I take it that this tweet was originally posted by David Keating

FrancisUrquhart

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1376919352193212416?s=21

Now what does Comedy Dave chart? Theoretical doses according to EC planned timeline?

Floater

we all like nice graphs

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1376843246966599684/photo/1

Look away Justin

slade

Is there any way I can change the time on posts from GMT to BST?

TimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

BBC News - Captain Underpants: Children's book withdrawn over 'passive racism'

The book follows about a pair of friends who travel from 500,001 B.C. to 2222, where they meet a martial arts instructor who teaches them kung fu and they learn principles found in Chinese philosophy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-56577725

Sounds harmless enough....I wonder what specific racist content it had?

Cultural appropriation?

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I know we've talked a lot about NFTs and I've been flagging up why banks and other financial services companies won't touch them, I'm fully expecting Mastercard and Visa to exclude NFTs from Section 75 as a minimum.

People's Expensive NFTs Keep Vanishing. This Is Why.

“There was no history of my ever purchasing it, or ever owning it,” said one confused NFT buyer. “Now there’s nothing. My money’s gone.”

Last month, Tom Kuennen, a property manager from Ontario, coughed up $500 worth of cryptocurrency for a JPEG of an Elon Musk-themed “Moon Ticket” from DarpaLabs, an anonymous digital art collective. He purchased it through the marketplace OpenSea, one of the largest vendors of so-called non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, in the hopes of reselling it for a profit.

“It’s like a casino,” he said in an interview. “If it goes up 100 times you resell it, if it doesn't, well, you don’t tell anyone.”

He never got the chance to find out. A week later, he opened up his digital “wallet,” where the artwork would supposedly be available, and was faced with an ominous banner reading, “This page has gone off grid. We’ve got a 404 error and explored deep and wide, but we can’t find the page you’re looking for.”

The artwork, which he expected to be on the page, had disappeared entirely. “There was no history of my ever purchasing it, or ever owning it,” he said. “Now there’s nothing. My money’s gone.”

Was it a glitch? A hack? Did Kuennen perhaps misunderstand how, exactly, NFTs work and how they’re stored? You can’t blame him; over the past few months, numerous individuals have complained about their NFTs going “missing,” “disappearing,” or becoming otherwise unavailable on social media. This despite the oft-repeated NFT sales pitch: that NFT artworks are logged immutably, and irreversibly, onto the Ethereum blockchain.

So why would an NFT go missing? The answer, it turns out, points to the complex working of NFTs that are often misunderstood even by the people willing to shell out large sums for them.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkdj79/peoples-expensive-nfts-keep-vanishing-this-is-why

In short kids, avoid NFTs.

Apparently in the wild west of NFTs there is basically two kinds. One that is I have bought the equivalent of a panini sticker, its juat a thing that you bought but have no rights over. However, that bit of art thst sold for million via NFT is a different category. The people who bought it have not only got the art, but the rights / control over its reproduction. Now that's quite interesting, because you have proof that a) you own the art, b) its the real bit of art and c) that you have the rights to monetize it / charge others.

The craziest one for me if the NBA TopShot NFTs. You buy video highlights, but you have absolutely no rights over them and you can see them for free via YouTube or if you have a subscription to the NBA streaming coverage.

I have a checklist (approved by myself and based on suggestions from the Bank of England, the FCA, and PRA, and others) which tells you how to spot money laundering and other financial crimes.

There's this one section about (over)paying for assets or non existent assets which NFTs tick every single section.

Richard_Nabavi

slade said:

Is there any way I can change the time on posts from GMT to BST?

Yes, log on an hour later.

FrancisUrquhart

Floater said:

we all like nice graphs

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1376843246966599684/photo/1

Look away Justin

No but you see in 1926, there was a similar observed trend and it led to Labour winning at some point in the future.

Floater

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1376919352193212416?s=21

Now what does Comedy Dave chart? Theoretical doses according to EC planned timeline?

Comedy Dave is now stuck in a logic loop

"does not compute, does not compute"

Richard_Nabavi

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1376919352193212416?s=21

Now what does Comedy Dave chart? Theoretical doses according to EC planned timeline?

Exclude AZ jabs, of course. They don't count.

TimT

Sandpit said:

TimT said:

Floater said:

The head of the World Health Organization has suggested that an investigation into whether a laboratory-related incident played a role in the origins of the pandemic was "not extensive enough".

In remarks given to member states during a briefing on a highly-anticipated report on the emergence of Covid-19, which have been published on the WHO's website, Dr Tedros insisted that "as far as WHO is concerned, all hypotheses remain on the table".

He suggested that "further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions" on whether an accidental lab-related event was a factor in the early spread of Covid-19.The director-general also criticised China for withholding data from international scientists.

"In my discussions with the team, they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data. I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing," Dr Tedros said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-lockdown-uk-rules-vaccine-novavax-latest/

So the point of this trumpeted report is what, to provide cover for the PRC?

Actually, from a WHO perspective, it seems the point is to criticize PRC for not sharing its raw data adequately, a recurring problem that occurred with SARS also, and is against PRC's obligations under the International Health Regulations to report on outbreaks with potential for cross-border impacts.

What sanctions are available though, given the failure has cost the worldwide economy $trillions on this occasion?

None

williamglenn

eek said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1376897597462417412?s=21

What's the background behind that?

A major Republican funeral took place in contravention of covid restrictions and they turned a blind eye and decided not to prosecute anyone.

TimT

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1376919352193212416?s=21

Now what does Comedy Dave chart? Theoretical doses according to EC planned timeline?

Exclude AZ jabs, of course. They don't count.

No, he'll be charting vaccine exports.

dixiedean

eek said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1376897597462417412?s=21

What's the background behind that?

It is about NFA taken against Sinn Fein over the Bobby Storey funeral lockdown breaches last June.
Not sure it's a call to resign matter anywhere outwith NI.

Edit:
Not to mention it is the DPP who prosecutes of course.

TOPPING

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

BannedinnParis

williamglenn said:

eek said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1376897597462417412?s=21

What's the background behind that?

A major Republican funeral took place in contravention of covid restrictions and they turned a blind eye and decided not to prosecute anyone.

Wouldn't balaclavas act as facemasks?

Omnium

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

Or the vaccines that have marketing budgets.

kinabalu

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

slade said:

Is there any way I can change the time on posts from GMT to BST?

Yes, log on an hour later.

But first please tell us the winner of the five o'clock at Fakenham.

CarlottaVance

All heading in the right direction:

Richard_Nabavi

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

It's a slightly odd article in that it doesn't mention the UK at all. If there is a real effect, then why aren't we seeing it? I do wonder whether there is something in the theory put forward by a Danish doctor that it is something to do with incorrect vaccination technique (pinching the skin, rather than stretching it out).

Sandpit

slade said:

Is there any way I can change the time on posts from GMT to BST?

Check the time on your computer, including the time zone. Vanilla defaults to local computer time if you’re logged in.

Nigel_Foremain

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

I still believe that WWC voters may have said Brexit was important to them, but the real deciding factor at the last GE was not wanting to endorse Corbyn.

Philip_Thompson

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56574100?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=60633fd025a85502e21bb56d&UK records 56 coronavirus deaths&2021-03-30T15:25:11.182Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:551fe7f7-672a-4b32-8a95-f53a2d10e5c4&pinned_post_asset_id=60633fd025a85502e21bb56d&pinned_post_type=share


UK has become France? 😲

Thankfully a typo, but good to think we should never see these case numbers again.

TOPPING

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Of course I might be wrong.

Great post.

Philip_Thompson

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

Except if Hartlepudlians (is that the term?) were willing to vote Tory to Get Brexit Done then this wouldn't have been a Lab hold in 2019.

BXP votes are not interchangeable with Tory votes. These are voters, probably lifelong Lab, who were so unwilling to vote Tory they wouldn't even do so to Get Brexit Done.

AlistairM

CarlottaVance said:

All heading in the right direction:

Hopeful early signs of cases declining again after flatlining for a month. School holidays will also I'm sure help.

Deaths are half what they were a week ago. Hopefully never see another day of triple-digit deaths again.

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

It's a slightly odd article in that it doesn't mention the UK at all. If there is a real effect, then why aren't we seeing it? I do wonder whether there is something in the theory put forward by a Danish doctor that it is something to do with incorrect vaccination technique (pinching the skin, rather than stretching it out).

I wouldn't be surprised, given the low absolute number - and, sadly, the NHS - if some such deaths were missed as being from that particular condition.

Nigel_Foremain

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

we all like nice graphs

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1376843246966599684/photo/1

Look away Justin

No but you see in 1926, there was a similar observed trend and it led to Labour winning at some point in the future.

For those complacent Tories here, you may want to recall how popular John Major was at his peak. I'll let you into a secret, it was a lot higher than Bozo is now

felix

Sandpit said:

slade said:

Is there any way I can change the time on posts from GMT to BST?

Check the time on your computer, including the time zone. Vanilla defaults to local computer time if you’re logged in.

It certainly does for me here in Spain.

Richard_Nabavi

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

It's a slightly odd article in that it doesn't mention the UK at all. If there is a real effect, then why aren't we seeing it? I do wonder whether there is something in the theory put forward by a Danish doctor that it is something to do with incorrect vaccination technique (pinching the skin, rather than stretching it out).

I wouldn't be surprised, given the low absolute number - and, sadly, the NHS - if some such deaths were missed as being that particular condition.

Possibly, but I doubt it. Our 'yellow card' system is pretty good.

Omnium

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

Hartlepool is a clear 'taken-for-granted' type seat. The background to the by-election isn't great for Labour, and the national mood hasn't swung their way since the GE. I think its likely to be close. We sort of know that the Tories are likely to have some good news in terms of easing of restrictions etc in the run up to May.

Starmer and co, if they get it right should of course win. Will they get it right though? Who're they going to stick in the public gaze? The problem they have is that they're not much improved from the rabble Starmer inherited. He's not looking like he's seen a ghost for nothing.

isam

Worthy favs in my opinion.

Gallowgate

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Gallowgate said:

BluestBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BluestBlue said:

You mean there's a fair chance that, over a decade into opposition, Labour might hang on to a seat they've held since it was created in 1974?

Gripping stuff

Oh God, you're not one of those idiots that objects to political betting being discussed on a website called politicalbetting.com?

Just wryly observing the breathless rush to highlight a small improvement in Labour's odds of retaining a heartland seat that they should never be in a position to lose, whereas three new polls showing an increasing national Tory lead are dismissed out of hand as no evidence of any continuing vaccine bounce at all...

In case you've not noticed, there's been a massive change in the political landscape in the last 10 years.

I still expect nothing other than a Labour loss.

Exactly. This is the post Brexit politics where the Cons have captured the WWC leaver demos. Their landslide was built on this and they would have taken this Brexit stronghold if it were not for the chunky BXP vote. That GE was not so long ago. Brexit has been delivered and looks to the untrained eye - of which there will be many in Hartlepool - to be a roaring success because vaccines. They should win this by-election and my money is where my mouth is. I have big big money (£60) on them at evens.

Of course I might be wrong. It does happen (albeit not often in recent times) and if so I'll be happy to lose my £60 even though £10 of it will be to Philip Thompson and nobody wants that. But I really do hope Labour can somehow pull this one out. If they do, it will be a sign that "Leave" is in retreat as a solid Tory-voting political identity in erstwhile traditional Labour areas in the North. That in turn puts Labour right in play for the next election.

Except if Hartlepudlians (is that the term?) were willing to vote Tory to Get Brexit Done then this wouldn't have been a Lab hold in 2019.

BXP votes are not interchangeable with Tory votes. These are voters, probably lifelong Lab, who were so unwilling to vote Tory they wouldn't even do so to Get Brexit Done.

I believe "monkey hanger" is the correct terminology.

Nigel_Foremain

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

I am beginning to become concerned that some of this anti-AZ stuff is sinister. Are lobbyists or maybe even darker forces targeting the gullible and susceptible?

Andy_JS

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1376915791883407364?s=20

Funny how we haven't had any of these problems in the UK despite tens of millions of people having had the AZ vaccine.

williamglenn

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

This is a good and evenhanded article on the AZN vaccine worries.

https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1376859648075079682

Very good article. A bit damned if they do damned if they don't.

I wonder if studies have been done on the myriad possible and recorded side effects of more commonplace drugs.

It's a slightly odd article in that it doesn't mention the UK at all. If there is a real effect, then why aren't we seeing it? I do wonder whether there is something in the theory put forward by a Danish doctor that it is something to do with incorrect vaccination technique (pinching the skin, rather than stretching it out).

I wouldn't be surprised, given the low absolute number - and, sadly, the NHS - if some such deaths were missed as being from that particular condition.

We publish very transparent and detailed information about adverse events:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions