What does Salmond want and what will he achieve? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Ha. Great spot.Andy_JS said:Bristol West used to be the most Tory seat in the city. William Waldegrave was the MP until May 1997.
Now Labour and the Greens get 87% between them. (There have been boundary changes since 1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
And just when I think that current shower of Tories are the most talentless useless arsewits in the history of politics, along you come to remind me of the existence of Waldegrave. Remember, there never was a golden age...0 -
A while back during the Egyptian revolution of 2011 our firm's economic intelligence unit flagged up the potential disruption if extreme elements seized or closed the Suez canal for more than 48 hours, I was astonished by the figures.algarkirk said:
Lawyers will be rubbing their hands together.Lots of ships cases come to London. And the High Court has a sub division dealing only with ship matters. Once upon a time it was the wonderfully named 'Probate, Divorce and Admiralty' division.TheScreamingEagles said:
My friend is an expert in maritime/business interruption insurance, he's won the Uncle Albert award three years out of the last eight amongst his team of 20 underwriters.Sandpit said:
The insurance is different, depending on which continent the ship gets stuck?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was in the context of maritime insurance if that makes senseSandpit said:
Well they’re not wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:I know it is serious but an expert on the Suez canal has just said
'The problem is the bow is in Asia and the stern in Africa'
Let’s hope they can find a way of making her float soon, next high tide there is on Monday, otherwise this is going to take an awful long time.
(Goes off to research maritime insurance, gets the feeling this is a massive wormhole).
The person with the most ships requiring a payout in one fiscal year.
Once he checked he wasn't the underwriter for this ship he could enjoy and laugh at the events in the Suez
I mean I knew just now important the canal was during WWII which is why we and the Axis forces threw everything during the battles of El Alamein to control the Suez canal but in a globalised world it is even more important that it reopens ASAP.0 -
H & M need to be applauded for standing up for the Uighurs in China.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've seen a lot of people post that as if it's a killer piece of evidence.TheScreamingEagles said:
You can blame the biased media for it.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks Harry.TheScreamingEagles said:The royal family is racist, according to a poll of non-white voters that found many do not want the monarchy to continue.
The YouGov survey found many adults from ethnic minorities share the concerns voiced by the Duke and Duchess of Sussex in their recent interview with Oprah Winfrey.
Ethnic minority Britons believe the royal family is racist by a margin of 43 per cent to 27 per cent.
The population as a whole thinks they are not racist by 55 per cent to 20 per cent.
In the interview, Meghan claimed a member of the royal family expressed “concerns” about what skin colour her son, Archie, would have.
When asked by Winfrey if the couple left the UK because of racism, Prince Harry said that “was a large part of it”. A few days after the interview, Prince William denied racism allegations, telling reporters: “We are very much not a racist family.”
But courtiers have revealed that efforts are already under way to improve the diversity of the royal household, which began before the interview.
Asked if Britain should “continue to have a monarchy in the future”, 43 per cent said it should, while 40 per cent would prefer an elected head of state, according to the poll of 504 people from ethnic minorities conducted a few days after the Winfrey interview.
Nearly half of interviewees — 49 per cent — said Harry and Meghan had been treated “unfairly” by the royal family, compared with less than a quarter — 24 per cent — who said “fairly”.
Anthony Wells, a director of YouGov, said: “Our polling of ethnic-minority attitudes suggests the royal family need to mend some fences.
“More optimistically, while ethnic-minority Britons have a generally negative perception of Charles and Camilla, the Queen herself, Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge all have strongly positive ratings.”
Overall, YouGov found 67 per cent felt positively towards the Queen.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/royal-family-is-racist-but-we-like-the-queen-say-ethnic-minority-voters-lfpw3c6d5
Meghan and Harry are a symptom and not a cause.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ellievhall/meghan-markle-kate-middleton-double-standards-royal
I don’t buy it. Harry and Meghan got great coverage when Meghan joined the royal family, and for their wedding day in 2018. The Sun even ran an editorial hoping she would bring modernisation. Even the Mail was positive.
It fell off a cliff during 2018 and 2019 as their behaviour became better know, and the tabloids went for exposing the hypocritical angle (and I suspect they were following public opinion as much as leading it) and then the lawsuits were launched by H&M in late 2019, and then they ended all co-operation with them in early 2020. If you look at those headlines they are *all* in the same 18-month period (Oct 2018 - April 2020) right about the same time all the controversy about their behaviour behind the scenes in the royal household became well-known.
Simplified, exaggerated and uncompromising? Sure. Groundless and evidence of a racist witch-hunt? No.0 -
One accident of birth is much more important than the other because fish 'n' chips and Spitfires or something?Casino_Royale said:
I've never felt a need to express a pride in being White and the thought repels me.
I have felt a desire to express pride in being English on St. George's Day, and would welcome Englishmen (and women) of any race joining me in doing so.
The two are not related, and I would find it offensive if someone suggested they were.0 -
This is a popular graph in Europe at the moment. Jeremy Cliffe has re-tweeted it, for example.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/13757494951080714260 -
Yeah, the UK paid for doses made by companies in the EU. I'm not sure that qualifies as vaccine nationalism. Blocking exports on the other hand...Andy_JS said:This is a popular graph in Europe at the moment. Jeremy Cliffe has re-tweeted it, for example.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/13757494951080714260 -
Dublin was bombed on a number of occasions by the Germans in 1940-41. The German pilots apparently thought they were above Liverpool.ydoethur said:And that doesn’t even mention the fact that the Irish Fire Brigade and Ambulance Service went to assist at the Belfast Blitz. Twice. The second time they weren’t even asked, they just turned up. And precious little thanks they ever got for it.
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Hmmm... on that basis, there are quite a few PBers who are like Meghan & Harry...Sean_F said:
They're a pair of extremely well-heeled whiners.TheScreamingEagles said:
You can blame the biased media for it.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks Harry.TheScreamingEagles said:The royal family is racist, according to a poll of non-white voters that found many do not want the monarchy to continue.
The YouGov survey found many adults from ethnic minorities share the concerns voiced by the Duke and Duchess of Sussex in their recent interview with Oprah Winfrey.
Ethnic minority Britons believe the royal family is racist by a margin of 43 per cent to 27 per cent.
The population as a whole thinks they are not racist by 55 per cent to 20 per cent.
In the interview, Meghan claimed a member of the royal family expressed “concerns” about what skin colour her son, Archie, would have.
When asked by Winfrey if the couple left the UK because of racism, Prince Harry said that “was a large part of it”. A few days after the interview, Prince William denied racism allegations, telling reporters: “We are very much not a racist family.”
But courtiers have revealed that efforts are already under way to improve the diversity of the royal household, which began before the interview.
Asked if Britain should “continue to have a monarchy in the future”, 43 per cent said it should, while 40 per cent would prefer an elected head of state, according to the poll of 504 people from ethnic minorities conducted a few days after the Winfrey interview.
Nearly half of interviewees — 49 per cent — said Harry and Meghan had been treated “unfairly” by the royal family, compared with less than a quarter — 24 per cent — who said “fairly”.
Anthony Wells, a director of YouGov, said: “Our polling of ethnic-minority attitudes suggests the royal family need to mend some fences.
“More optimistically, while ethnic-minority Britons have a generally negative perception of Charles and Camilla, the Queen herself, Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge all have strongly positive ratings.”
Overall, YouGov found 67 per cent felt positively towards the Queen.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/royal-family-is-racist-but-we-like-the-queen-say-ethnic-minority-voters-lfpw3c6d5
Meghan and Harry are a symptom and not a cause.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ellievhall/meghan-markle-kate-middleton-double-standards-royal
[Runs from the comment section screaming in terror]4 -
Won't we always need to treat it differently, in the literal sense? Won't there be a need to have two streams for patients in every department? If it remains as infectious we surely can't have positive/negative patients side by side in outpatients or in the same ward or ICU?MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
I've been wondering from the start of this pandemic whether we need to go back to having isolation hospitals like we did in the past.1 -
The Spiteful was the fastest British piston-engined plane of WW2 (494 mph), but due to the end of hostilities, only 19 were built!Mango said:
One accident of birth is much more important than the other because fish 'n' chips and Spitfires or something?Casino_Royale said:
I've never felt a need to express a pride in being White and the thought repels me.
I have felt a desire to express pride in being English on St. George's Day, and would welcome Englishmen (and women) of any race joining me in doing so.
The two are not related, and I would find it offensive if someone suggested they were.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermarine_Spiteful0 -
The best at lying and getting away with it for sure..Anabobazina said:
I wonder if we can have a thread on when people will stop underestimating Nicola Sturgeon? By far the most able leading politician on these isles.Roger said:
Looks like the Scots have decided where Priti and Boris can stick their Union JacksBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
If, theoretically, one were tasked with talking down terrified old ducks then one would approach these matters rather more sensitively and patiently. Fortunately, however, I'm not. I'm writing on an internet discussion forum, and can therefore call out unreasonable or silly behaviour without inducing tears. Hopefully.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I live in Llandudno that entirely depends on tourism and has been devastated by covidBlack_Rook said:
Once again, I'm sure that the fear is genuine but it has no basis in fact and should not, therefore, be indulged.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your last sentence is insulting to people and their local community and may I say, unnecessaryBlack_Rook said:
Covid panic in seaside resorts exists and is doubtless genuine, but it's also baseless. We must remember at this juncture that we have been previously reassured, contrary to fears expressed during Spring and Summer last year, that there have been no recorded instances anywhere on Earth of Covid clusters being traced back to beach sunbathing, and I would imagine the same is true of people using parks, walking along promenades or up and down streets. Outdoor activity is, broadly speaking, safe.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It could beFloater said:
IF infections and more importantly deaths and hospitalisations stay low that might be a positive thingBig_G_NorthWales said:
I assume so and out and about yesterday and today everywhere is teaming with people and cars and little complianceTheScreamingEagles said:Are the Welsh still leading the vaccination league table?
I have just watched a report from Tenby with locals upset with people driving 100 miles, and scared it will all start again
And of course that 100 miles would have to be within Wales, also the local businesses saying they cannot survive without the English visitors
The main thing I would be concerned with in these circumstances was so many people turning up at once that the roads, litter bins and public toilets proved unable to meet demand. Not about the Plague.
Local authorities and police might have to think about trying to restrict access/marshal people away from very busy areas for these reasons, but the irrational germ phobia that some people have should not be overindulged, or we shall never get out of the present mess.
If some residents of these honeypots are still shit scared of other people then they can always stay at home in the middle of the day themselves, and venture forth when it's quieter.
There is nothing controversial (or at least there shouldn't be) in stating that people should be able to go where they like with sensible exceptions, such as those required by due respect for privacy and private property, the conservation of sensitive environments, the alleviation of unacceptable nuisance to local communities, and public safety.
Within reason, there is no harm in outsiders coming to visit seaside resorts - indeed, if you so happen to live in a seaside resort then you are to expect to share it with a certain number of visitors. Objections to visitors that are rooted in slim-to-non-existent threats are not, therefore, defensible.
Thus, if some of the locals are frightened of visitors, but the visitors are doing nothing wrong, then the onus is on the locals to stay away from the visitors and not the other way around. I fail to see what is contentious about this.
Of course we welcome tourists but suggesting locals concerns should result in them hiding away is hardly diplomatic2 -
Who didnt underestimate in september to october 2019? It looked like his premiership was as doomed to failure as his predecessor...Razedabode said:
You could probably say the same about Johnson in all honesty.Anabobazina said:
I wonder if we can have a thread on when people will stop underestimating Nicola Sturgeon? By far the most able leading politician on these isles.Roger said:
Looks like the Scots have decided where Priti and Boris can stick their Union JacksBig_G_NorthWales said:1 -
AhemCursingStone said:
Who didnt underestimate in september to october 2019? It looked like his premiership was as doomed to failure as his predecessor...Razedabode said:
You could probably say the same about Johnson in all honesty.Anabobazina said:
I wonder if we can have a thread on when people will stop underestimating Nicola Sturgeon? By far the most able leading politician on these isles.Roger said:
Looks like the Scots have decided where Priti and Boris can stick their Union JacksBig_G_NorthWales said:
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Plus the answer is "mostly not, of course, but in some situations, yes".kinabalu said:
There's no reason - other than for Right Wing Populists to win votes - to set these things up as being in implacable opposition. I am just as supportive of reducing class inequality as I am of reducing racial inequality. There's no conflict there for me.MrEd said:
The one glaring inequality of which very little discussion or calls for radical measures is, of course, class. Do we really think a very poor white person is inherently more privilege than a wealthy black person?1 -
I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!0
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I'm afraid that's just not true.CursingStone said:
Who didnt underestimate in september to october 2019? It looked like his premiership was as doomed to failure as his predecessor...
The inevitability of Johnson calling a GE and winning it was obvious as the Conservative poll share rose remorselessly through the autumn. The problem the Opposition parties had at the time was the more they thought they had Johnson cornered in the Commons the more the country was willing to set him free.1 -
I'm just trying to make a good prediction about what will happen as the vaccine is rolled out. I think you're being a little optimistic about how much protection it will give.MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
--AS0 -
She does look rather stuck, doesn't she?ping said:
Forgive my completely amateur analysis from thousands of miles away via a smartphone, but....Sandpit said:
Well they’re not wrong!Big_G_NorthWales said:I know it is serious but an expert on the Suez canal has just said
'The problem is the bow is in Asia and the stern in Africa'
Let’s hope they can find a way of making her float soon, next high tide there is on Monday, otherwise this is going to take an awful long time.
From the pics I’ve seen, the the water seems to be almost up to the top of the banks. I’m not sure high tide can get high enough.
It looks to me like they need to properly dig down at the banks on either side, then make a channel.
Just simply dredging a bit, waiting for high tide, hoping and tugging harder seems... unlikely to work.
/amateuranalysis
The picture under the water, is that the banks are actually quite sloped, with only the middle portion of the canal being deep enough for such a large ship to navigate.
The bow is very much aground, and there's probably 60m or so of ship in the ground. The stern doesn't look so bad, it appears the first plan is to push hard on the stern to try and turn her round, which is what they've been doing this evening.
If that doesn't work, then it's going to have to be some very dangerous and careful digging and dredging of the ground around her.
You're right that there doesn't seem to be much spare hight on the banks, but another metre might make all the difference. Another option might be to dam the canal to create an artificial high tide but, as with everything in this incident, the scale is massive so it would take a lot of time and money - and still might not work!
The ship is also unstable, she wasn't designed to be supported at the bow and stern, but not in the middle. Any measures to reduce weight such as offloading fuel or cargo, might cause more damage as she twists in the water.
Here's what the canal looks like. For reference the incident ship has a draught of 15.7m, that's the depth of water she needs to float.
https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/13748215462257623080 -
Which continent is Evergiven stuck onLuckyguy1983 said:I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!
Asia or Africa6 -
ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.
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My only regret is that I have but one pair of hands with which to applaud this excellent post...Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.3 -
This is the backstoryLeon said:
No one is entirely sure, in truthydoethur said:
No, it's a Celtic word adopted by the Romans.Leon said:
It may be a Gaelic word, but it is also a Latin word, which became an English word, and it seems to refer to Englandydoethur said:
Which would be logical, given it's a Gaelic word.Gadfly said:.
Maybe they're trying to do the Gaelic pronunciation?IanB2 said:
I’ve been flagging this for ages. The long promised March ramping up seems to have consisted of a single day that topped January’s record vaccination total.Pulpstar said:There's a 2nd jabs crunch coming up in the second half of April where we'll need 450k a day to stay within 12 weeks.
From now till then is 250k/day. The reality is we'll probably do more quicker as we're running at a 70 day gap, not 84 day gap
Gap time is as follows right now
Scotland 67 days
N Ireland 70 days
England 73 days
Wales 56 days !
Meanwhile, on topic, is there a mysterious pronunciation of Alba that is passing us English Brits by? The BBC seems to be pronouncing it ‘Allaba’ on the news.
"Alba (English: /ˈælbə/) is the Scottish Gaelic name (pronounced [ˈal̪ˠapə]) for Scotland."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alba
Nothing annoys me more than people who mispronounce words in Welsh using English phonetics (apart from teenagers who chew gum in lessons, obviously).
And early references cognating Alba (Albion, Albany) with the whole or part of the British Isles seem to refer to the white cliffs of Dover, which is piquant for Eck Salmond
"Middle English from Medieval Latin Albania (“Scotland”), from Scottish Gaelic Alba (“Scotland”), from Old Irish Albu (“Britain, Scotland”), from Proto-Celtic *albiyū (“world”, literally “white (place)”) (compare Old Welsh elbid (“world”)), from Proto-Indo-European *h₂elbʰos (“white”), possibly in reference to the White Cliffs of Dover. Doublet of Albania."
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Albany
http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/marshall/england/england-1.html0 -
It's certain we need more data. MaxPB - pound on NHS England to get some stats on vaccinated + 21 days vs admissions and deaths?AlwaysSinging said:
I'm just trying to make a good prediction about what will happen as the vaccine is rolled out. I think you're being a little optimistic about how much protection it will give.MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
--AS
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The data on vitamin D, especially in high doses, is decidedly mixedrural_voter said:
If everything is really still closed, sunbathe on Hampstead Heath and get some vitamin D.Leon said:Streets absolutely rammed here in north London. There's still nowhere to go but people seem to be going there anyway
Many individual doctors take vitamin D and prescribe it to patients when possible, knowing that it gives immunity in large enough amounts. But the neanderthals in NICE / NHS management / PHE oppose, er, saving lives
See http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html
He's a retired NHS consultant gastroenterologist. See his later blog about an intervention in S. Spain last December; vitamin D saved 1,000s of lives.
David Davis MP - who has a biochemistry degree - probably knows more than the other 649 MPs put together on the subject and gave a useful interview on Y.Tube. He's hit a brick wall, though, within the govt.
The NHS is beyond repair. If you want a long healthy life and don't want to be on 5-10 (mostly expensive and patented) drugs by the time you're 70, stay away from it.0 -
How many sets of locks does a ship usually go through, as it travels along the Suez Canal?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Which continent is Evergiven stuck onLuckyguy1983 said:I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!
Asia or Africa
Answer - none!
(the big locks are in the Panama Canal).1 -
I'm offended that you're offended by the snowflakes offended by....Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.
I am coming to the conclusion that being offended and being polite about it is vital to a polite society.
Anyone who can't take the craick should *get* the Wogdon & Barton.....0 -
You're probably right, but I doubt walking would get her very high marks.SandyRentool said:0 -
Who was the last Prince of Wales to be born in Wales?Luckyguy1983 said:I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!
Answer - Henry V, victor of Agincourt.
Alternatively, who was the last King in Britain to die in battle?
Answer James IV of Scotland, battle of Flodden 1513.
(The last king of England was Richard III, Bosworth 1485.)2 -
Vitamin D supplements are not a reliable source. That doesn't mean it's not a vital vitamin.Charles said:
The data on vitamin D, especially in high doses, is decidedly mixedrural_voter said:
If everything is really still closed, sunbathe on Hampstead Heath and get some vitamin D.Leon said:Streets absolutely rammed here in north London. There's still nowhere to go but people seem to be going there anyway
Many individual doctors take vitamin D and prescribe it to patients when possible, knowing that it gives immunity in large enough amounts. But the neanderthals in NICE / NHS management / PHE oppose, er, saving lives
See http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html
He's a retired NHS consultant gastroenterologist. See his later blog about an intervention in S. Spain last December; vitamin D saved 1,000s of lives.
David Davis MP - who has a biochemistry degree - probably knows more than the other 649 MPs put together on the subject and gave a useful interview on Y.Tube. He's hit a brick wall, though, within the govt.
The NHS is beyond repair. If you want a long healthy life and don't want to be on 5-10 (mostly expensive and patented) drugs by the time you're 70, stay away from it.0 -
I can make an email, I'm not hopeful that they'll want to release that information just yet as it will result in loads of news stories about how people who got the vaccine still died of COVID and how he one dose strategy is to blame etc...Malmesbury said:
It's certain we need more data. MaxPB - pound on NHS England to get some stats on vaccinated + 21 days vs admissions and deaths?AlwaysSinging said:
I'm just trying to make a good prediction about what will happen as the vaccine is rolled out. I think you're being a little optimistic about how much protection it will give.MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
--AS0 -
Which is the only Spanish-speaking country in Africa? Equatorial GuineaLuckyguy1983 said:I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!
Which are the only two double-landlocked countries in the world (i.e. landlocked countries surrounded by countries that are themselves landlocked)? Liechtenstein and Uzbekistan
Which lake contains a fifth of the world's fresh liquid water? Lake Baikal
1 -
The evidence is that chronic Vitamin D deficiency is bad.Luckyguy1983 said:
Vitamin D supplements are not a reliable source. That doesn't mean it's not a vital vitamin.Charles said:
The data on vitamin D, especially in high doses, is decidedly mixedrural_voter said:
If everything is really still closed, sunbathe on Hampstead Heath and get some vitamin D.Leon said:Streets absolutely rammed here in north London. There's still nowhere to go but people seem to be going there anyway
Many individual doctors take vitamin D and prescribe it to patients when possible, knowing that it gives immunity in large enough amounts. But the neanderthals in NICE / NHS management / PHE oppose, er, saving lives
See http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html
He's a retired NHS consultant gastroenterologist. See his later blog about an intervention in S. Spain last December; vitamin D saved 1,000s of lives.
David Davis MP - who has a biochemistry degree - probably knows more than the other 649 MPs put together on the subject and gave a useful interview on Y.Tube. He's hit a brick wall, though, within the govt.
The NHS is beyond repair. If you want a long healthy life and don't want to be on 5-10 (mostly expensive and patented) drugs by the time you're 70, stay away from it.
The evidence that Vitamin D is a wonder drug that can do X, is exactly like the old Vitamin C is a wonder drug that can do Y stuff. Found only by those who can invent evidence from noise.
1 -
I did wonder which text you were referencing the other day. This one is great, and much better than Pomponius Mela's brief local aetiological tale of Hercules fighting Neptune's sons Alebion and Dercynus on a beach near Marseille and needing a hailstorm of rocks from Jupiter to finish them off...Charles said:
This is the backstoryLeon said:
No one is entirely sure, in truthydoethur said:
No, it's a Celtic word adopted by the Romans.Leon said:
It may be a Gaelic word, but it is also a Latin word, which became an English word, and it seems to refer to Englandydoethur said:
Which would be logical, given it's a Gaelic word.Gadfly said:.
Maybe they're trying to do the Gaelic pronunciation?IanB2 said:
I’ve been flagging this for ages. The long promised March ramping up seems to have consisted of a single day that topped January’s record vaccination total.Pulpstar said:There's a 2nd jabs crunch coming up in the second half of April where we'll need 450k a day to stay within 12 weeks.
From now till then is 250k/day. The reality is we'll probably do more quicker as we're running at a 70 day gap, not 84 day gap
Gap time is as follows right now
Scotland 67 days
N Ireland 70 days
England 73 days
Wales 56 days !
Meanwhile, on topic, is there a mysterious pronunciation of Alba that is passing us English Brits by? The BBC seems to be pronouncing it ‘Allaba’ on the news.
"Alba (English: /ˈælbə/) is the Scottish Gaelic name (pronounced [ˈal̪ˠapə]) for Scotland."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alba
Nothing annoys me more than people who mispronounce words in Welsh using English phonetics (apart from teenagers who chew gum in lessons, obviously).
And early references cognating Alba (Albion, Albany) with the whole or part of the British Isles seem to refer to the white cliffs of Dover, which is piquant for Eck Salmond
"Middle English from Medieval Latin Albania (“Scotland”), from Scottish Gaelic Alba (“Scotland”), from Old Irish Albu (“Britain, Scotland”), from Proto-Celtic *albiyū (“world”, literally “white (place)”) (compare Old Welsh elbid (“world”)), from Proto-Indo-European *h₂elbʰos (“white”), possibly in reference to the White Cliffs of Dover. Doublet of Albania."
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Albany
http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/marshall/england/england-1.html0 -
It lost Westbury-on-Trym, Stoke Bishop and Henleaze, which were more Tory inclined and went into Bristol North-West, but added Clifton East, Easton, and Lawrence Hill - which are far more left-wing.Andy_JS said:Bristol West used to be the most Tory seat in the city. William Waldegrave was the MP until May 1997.
Now Labour and the Greens get 87% between them. (There have been boundary changes since 1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, the shift in votes reflects that of the urban middle/upper-middle class electorate.
It's been particularly pronounced amongst educated female graduate: I can think of four friends of mine, all female, who were at Bristol with me and Tory/pro-Thatcher etc. in 2000 who now vote Labour or Green.0 -
They publicly released numbers at a press conference at No. 10 on that.MaxPB said:
I can make an email, I'm not hopeful that they'll want to release that information just yet as it will result in loads of news stories about how people who got the vaccine still died of COVID and how he one dose strategy is to blame etc...Malmesbury said:
It's certain we need more data. MaxPB - pound on NHS England to get some stats on vaccinated + 21 days vs admissions and deaths?AlwaysSinging said:
I'm just trying to make a good prediction about what will happen as the vaccine is rolled out. I think you're being a little optimistic about how much protection it will give.MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
--AS
So that cat is out of the bag and sunning itself in the garden.....0 -
Oh what an excellent post - you have me all fired up! And it's because of these stupid narcissistic babies that we are to be imprisoned on this island despite other countries wanting and needing us to visit.Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.1 -
A temporary physical ID card I could just about deal with. An automated facial recognition system linked up to a government database, however, is something out of the Chinese communist party's playbook. It's obvious that these public health people are now privately briefing these ideas out and linking them to "saving the NHS" just as they were previously briefing out needing cases to fall for the unlockdown rather than hospitalisations. They all need to be sacked yesterday. To some degree I'm actually quite glad to have Professor Whitty at the helm, he seems to be quite sensible and has on many occasions destroyed the arguments of these public health zealots who would have us a die of loneliness and starvation to avoid death by anything else.Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.0 -
Which is why I go out in the sun in summer, only use sunblock when necessary, and eat plenty of eggs and oily fish especially in winter.Luckyguy1983 said:
Vitamin D supplements are not a reliable source. That doesn't mean it's not a vital vitamin.Charles said:
The data on vitamin D, especially in high doses, is decidedly mixedrural_voter said:
If everything is really still closed, sunbathe on Hampstead Heath and get some vitamin D.Leon said:Streets absolutely rammed here in north London. There's still nowhere to go but people seem to be going there anyway
Many individual doctors take vitamin D and prescribe it to patients when possible, knowing that it gives immunity in large enough amounts. But the neanderthals in NICE / NHS management / PHE oppose, er, saving lives
See http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html
He's a retired NHS consultant gastroenterologist. See his later blog about an intervention in S. Spain last December; vitamin D saved 1,000s of lives.
David Davis MP - who has a biochemistry degree - probably knows more than the other 649 MPs put together on the subject and gave a useful interview on Y.Tube. He's hit a brick wall, though, within the govt.
The NHS is beyond repair. If you want a long healthy life and don't want to be on 5-10 (mostly expensive and patented) drugs by the time you're 70, stay away from it.2 -
Who was the first Prince of Whales?ydoethur said:
Who was the last Prince of Wales to be born in Wales?Luckyguy1983 said:I have a quiz in about 20 minutes - I have a set of geography questions, but as ever, any more fun ones from you guys would be most appreciated if any spring to mind!
Answer - Henry V, victor of Agincourt.
And who did he kill ?
1 -
Ultimately I can ask. I think they just need to add a vaccinated/unvaccinated filter to the case, hospitalisation and deaths page.Malmesbury said:
They publicly released numbers at a press conference at No. 10 on that.MaxPB said:
I can make an email, I'm not hopeful that they'll want to release that information just yet as it will result in loads of news stories about how people who got the vaccine still died of COVID and how he one dose strategy is to blame etc...Malmesbury said:
It's certain we need more data. MaxPB - pound on NHS England to get some stats on vaccinated + 21 days vs admissions and deaths?AlwaysSinging said:
I'm just trying to make a good prediction about what will happen as the vaccine is rolled out. I think you're being a little optimistic about how much protection it will give.MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
--AS
So that cat is out of the bag and sunning itself in the garden.....0 -
That's not quite true either. You're obviously absolutely correct about 'the country' but for a time as CursingStonge quite rightly states, Johnson's premiership was hovering in the balance. Why so? Because the remainer parliament had him and could have removed him.stodge said:
I'm afraid that's just not true.CursingStone said:
Who didnt underestimate in september to october 2019? It looked like his premiership was as doomed to failure as his predecessor...
The inevitability of Johnson calling a GE and winning it was obvious as the Conservative poll share rose remorselessly through the autumn. The problem the Opposition parties had at the time was the more they thought they had Johnson cornered in the Commons the more the country was willing to set him free.
The day the Supreme Court ruled against him they could have easily held a (winning) vote of no confidence with a caretaker prime minister. It was right there for the taking.
But for Jeremy Corbyn it would have happened.0 -
I have just emailed them asking for that - vaccinated + 21 days especially.MaxPB said:
Ultimately I can ask. I think they just need to add a vaccinated/unvaccinated filter to the case, hospitalisation and deaths page.Malmesbury said:
They publicly released numbers at a press conference at No. 10 on that.MaxPB said:
I can make an email, I'm not hopeful that they'll want to release that information just yet as it will result in loads of news stories about how people who got the vaccine still died of COVID and how he one dose strategy is to blame etc...Malmesbury said:
It's certain we need more data. MaxPB - pound on NHS England to get some stats on vaccinated + 21 days vs admissions and deaths?AlwaysSinging said:
I'm just trying to make a good prediction about what will happen as the vaccine is rolled out. I think you're being a little optimistic about how much protection it will give.MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
--AS
So that cat is out of the bag and sunning itself in the garden.....0 -
Of course, Bristol West was subject to the 'Remain Alliance' in 2019, so the LibDems stood down for the Greens.Casino_Royale said:
It lost Westbury-on-Trym, Stoke Bishop and Henleaze, which were more Tory inclined and went into Bristol North-West, but added Clifton East, Easton, and Lawrence Hill - which are far more left-wing.Andy_JS said:Bristol West used to be the most Tory seat in the city. William Waldegrave was the MP until May 1997.
Now Labour and the Greens get 87% between them. (There have been boundary changes since 1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, the shift in votes reflects that of the urban middle/upper-middle class electorate.
It's been particularly pronounced amongst educated female graduate: I can think of four friends of mine, all female, who were at Bristol with me and Tory/pro-Thatcher etc. in 2000 who now vote Labour or Green.
That is why Labour + Greens = 87 % in Bristol West.0 -
"We think we have a culture war in Britain because there is one on Twitter, which is unrepresentative, a false mirror. “Social media literally hands the microphone to those people down the back who heckle all the time,” says Tim Dixon, the co-founder of More in Common, a think tank working in France, Germany, the UK and the US that is devoted to “uniting divided societies”. “It’s a handful of people — 80 per cent of tweets come from 2 per cent of the population.” It is normal to dehumanise on Twitter. Long-developed strategies for human agreement do not work there, so they do not exist there."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/culture-wars-how-divided-is-britain-black-lives-matter-brexit-megxit-q8h5660ks0 -
I'll do the same on Monday when I'm back in the office.Malmesbury said:
I have just emailed them asking for that - vaccinated + 21 days especially.MaxPB said:
Ultimately I can ask. I think they just need to add a vaccinated/unvaccinated filter to the case, hospitalisation and deaths page.Malmesbury said:
They publicly released numbers at a press conference at No. 10 on that.MaxPB said:
I can make an email, I'm not hopeful that they'll want to release that information just yet as it will result in loads of news stories about how people who got the vaccine still died of COVID and how he one dose strategy is to blame etc...Malmesbury said:
It's certain we need more data. MaxPB - pound on NHS England to get some stats on vaccinated + 21 days vs admissions and deaths?AlwaysSinging said:
I'm just trying to make a good prediction about what will happen as the vaccine is rolled out. I think you're being a little optimistic about how much protection it will give.MaxPB said:
I think it was 93% in Israel, our dosing strategy is probably going to result in better immunity.AlwaysSinging said:
Really? 95% in the elderly (which is the case at hand)? I'd be extremely surprised. And with new variants around it's very unlikely to be 95% in any cohort.MaxPB said:
No, the point is that the case rate for vaccinated people will drop to zero because our testing system is built around waiting for people to get symptoms and then confirming those symptoms with a test. After two doses 95% of people won't get any symptoms so they won't get tested.AlwaysSinging said:
That doesn't feel right to me. Data seems to show that the vaccines are c.80% effective against symptomatic disease, and c.95% of the top age group has been vaccinated. It follows that probably only c.25% of cases in the top age group are amongst unvaccinated. I suppose it's possible that those are the cases who disproportionately go on to die, but I think this contradicts data from Israel. Mind you, I've seen fairly contradictory data from Israel and it's still early days relatively.MaxPB said:
Don't forget that this is an aggregated CFR which doesn't split out the unvaccinated, those small number of unvaccinated people will now be accounting for more and more of the total number so I actually expect the CFR to start rising soon.AlwaysSinging said:
I think this graph shows why COVID remains a serious disease for some, even after vaccination. We can perhaps hope that 2nd doses drop the CFR further, but I'd be surprised if that effect is very large.Malmesbury said:England CFR
--AS
Nothing is certain, but I'm not seeing any reason to think that vaccination reduces COVID risk to as low as (unvaccinated) flu risk, say, in the elderly. (Though I hope it does.)
--AS
--AS
Ultimately though we have to be grown ups about it, people die of diseases everyday. We can't really treat COVID any differently once there is no real danger of overloading the NHS. That day is coming very soon.
--AS
So that cat is out of the bag and sunning itself in the garden.....0 -
Get Anas Sarwar in the Commons0
-
If only SKS could be as punchyRazedabode said:
I mean - he’s a helluva lot better than Leonard. But even a potato was, so..rottenborough said:Punchy. This new fellah seems a bit more like it for Labour.
https://twitter.com/Political_AlanS/status/13757877143946526760 -
Literally France Trump.williamglenn said:0 -
Alternatively, wonder into a decent chemist. They all sell (these days) the 20,000iu capsules. One a week of that would put your Vitamin D levels on the moon.JohnLilburne said:
Which is why I go out in the sun in summer, only use sunblock when necessary, and eat plenty of eggs and oily fish especially in winter.Luckyguy1983 said:
Vitamin D supplements are not a reliable source. That doesn't mean it's not a vital vitamin.Charles said:
The data on vitamin D, especially in high doses, is decidedly mixedrural_voter said:
If everything is really still closed, sunbathe on Hampstead Heath and get some vitamin D.Leon said:Streets absolutely rammed here in north London. There's still nowhere to go but people seem to be going there anyway
Many individual doctors take vitamin D and prescribe it to patients when possible, knowing that it gives immunity in large enough amounts. But the neanderthals in NICE / NHS management / PHE oppose, er, saving lives
See http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html
He's a retired NHS consultant gastroenterologist. See his later blog about an intervention in S. Spain last December; vitamin D saved 1,000s of lives.
David Davis MP - who has a biochemistry degree - probably knows more than the other 649 MPs put together on the subject and gave a useful interview on Y.Tube. He's hit a brick wall, though, within the govt.
The NHS is beyond repair. If you want a long healthy life and don't want to be on 5-10 (mostly expensive and patented) drugs by the time you're 70, stay away from it.0 -
It was Bristol North West where the Green stood down.YBarddCwsc said:
Of course, Bristol West was subject to the 'Remain Alliance' in 2019, so the LibDems stood down for the Greens.Casino_Royale said:
It lost Westbury-on-Trym, Stoke Bishop and Henleaze, which were more Tory inclined and went into Bristol North-West, but added Clifton East, Easton, and Lawrence Hill - which are far more left-wing.Andy_JS said:Bristol West used to be the most Tory seat in the city. William Waldegrave was the MP until May 1997.
Now Labour and the Greens get 87% between them. (There have been boundary changes since 1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, the shift in votes reflects that of the urban middle/upper-middle class electorate.
It's been particularly pronounced amongst educated female graduate: I can think of four friends of mine, all female, who were at Bristol with me and Tory/pro-Thatcher etc. in 2000 who now vote Labour or Green.
That is why Labour + Greens = 87 % in Bristol West.
Thangham Debbonaire still had to fight off Molly Scott Cato.0 -
Isn't this the problem SLAB have, anyone with any talent just ends up in Westminster leaving the second/third raters in Scotland.Gallowgate said:Get Anas Sarwar in the Commons
1 -
The more important point is that right of centre parties could only muster 13%, less than in Glasgow East for example.YBarddCwsc said:
Of course, Bristol West was subject to the 'Remain Alliance' in 2019, so the LibDems stood down for the Greens.Casino_Royale said:
It lost Westbury-on-Trym, Stoke Bishop and Henleaze, which were more Tory inclined and went into Bristol North-West, but added Clifton East, Easton, and Lawrence Hill - which are far more left-wing.Andy_JS said:Bristol West used to be the most Tory seat in the city. William Waldegrave was the MP until May 1997.
Now Labour and the Greens get 87% between them. (There have been boundary changes since 1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, the shift in votes reflects that of the urban middle/upper-middle class electorate.
It's been particularly pronounced amongst educated female graduate: I can think of four friends of mine, all female, who were at Bristol with me and Tory/pro-Thatcher etc. in 2000 who now vote Labour or Green.
That is why Labour + Greens = 87 % in Bristol West.0 -
There's Labour talent in Westminster?MaxPB said:
Isn't this the problem SLAB have, anyone with any talent just ends up in Westminster leaving the second/third raters in Scotland.Gallowgate said:Get Anas Sarwar in the Commons
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That would be impressive if it was written by anyone other than you. The person who was finding anti semitic tropes where no one else could see them. Imagine people being offended by a scribble on a wall.Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.0 -
"We think we have a culture war in Britain because the EU referendum and the election of President Trump in 2016 were five months apart. We look at America with its real culture war and we think we are like them. But we aren’t. “The dynamics in the UK are quite distinctive. Brits aren’t as ideological,” says Dixon, who has sat through “countless hours of focus groups”. His conclusion is that British people are “moderators. They look for common ground. They don’t take pride in taking the strongest view.”Casino_Royale said:"We think we have a culture war in Britain because there is one on Twitter, which is unrepresentative, a false mirror. “Social media literally hands the microphone to those people down the back who heckle all the time,” says Tim Dixon, the co-founder of More in Common, a think tank working in France, Germany, the UK and the US that is devoted to “uniting divided societies”. “It’s a handful of people — 80 per cent of tweets come from 2 per cent of the population.” It is normal to dehumanise on Twitter. Long-developed strategies for human agreement do not work there, so they do not exist there."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/culture-wars-how-divided-is-britain-black-lives-matter-brexit-megxit-q8h5660ks1 -
Boris and Nicola together in a class of their own. Fascinating tussle also, as it sort of looks as if one of them must lose a very particular battle. IMHO the chances of Scottish independence (as opposed to lots of huffing and puffing) are very small and Nicola knows that perfectly well. She must have to be content possessing a fiefdom but having an overlord. She has performed this well so far.MarqueeMark said:
The best at lying and getting away with it for sure..Anabobazina said:
I wonder if we can have a thread on when people will stop underestimating Nicola Sturgeon? By far the most able leading politician on these isles.Roger said:
Looks like the Scots have decided where Priti and Boris can stick their Union JacksBig_G_NorthWales said:
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"Race and False Hate Crime Narratives
written by Heather Mac Donald"
https://quillette.com/2021/03/25/race-and-false-hate-crime-narratives0 -
It was one of the most Remain-dominated constituencies in the country. So, I am not too surprised.Andy_JS said:
The more important point is that right of centre parties could only muster 13%, less than in Glasgow East for example.YBarddCwsc said:
Of course, Bristol West was subject to the 'Remain Alliance' in 2019, so the LibDems stood down for the Greens.Casino_Royale said:
It lost Westbury-on-Trym, Stoke Bishop and Henleaze, which were more Tory inclined and went into Bristol North-West, but added Clifton East, Easton, and Lawrence Hill - which are far more left-wing.Andy_JS said:Bristol West used to be the most Tory seat in the city. William Waldegrave was the MP until May 1997.
Now Labour and the Greens get 87% between them. (There have been boundary changes since 1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, the shift in votes reflects that of the urban middle/upper-middle class electorate.
It's been particularly pronounced amongst educated female graduate: I can think of four friends of mine, all female, who were at Bristol with me and Tory/pro-Thatcher etc. in 2000 who now vote Labour or Green.
That is why Labour + Greens = 87 % in Bristol West.
The Right could only muster 16 % in Cambridge.0 -
What on earth are you talking about?Roger said:
That would be impressive if it was written by anyone other than you. The person who was finding anti semitic tropes where no one else could see them. Imagine people being offended by a scribble on a wall.Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.0 -
Not reliably so. They aren't actual Vitamin D (which can't be synthesised) they're the precursors of it - it's up to your body if it makes any.Malmesbury said:
Alternatively, wonder into a decent chemist. They all sell (these days) the 20,000iu capsules. One a week of that would put your Vitamin D levels on the moon.JohnLilburne said:
Which is why I go out in the sun in summer, only use sunblock when necessary, and eat plenty of eggs and oily fish especially in winter.Luckyguy1983 said:
Vitamin D supplements are not a reliable source. That doesn't mean it's not a vital vitamin.Charles said:
The data on vitamin D, especially in high doses, is decidedly mixedrural_voter said:
If everything is really still closed, sunbathe on Hampstead Heath and get some vitamin D.Leon said:Streets absolutely rammed here in north London. There's still nowhere to go but people seem to be going there anyway
Many individual doctors take vitamin D and prescribe it to patients when possible, knowing that it gives immunity in large enough amounts. But the neanderthals in NICE / NHS management / PHE oppose, er, saving lives
See http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/11/covid-19-vitamin-d-deaths-of-doctors.html
He's a retired NHS consultant gastroenterologist. See his later blog about an intervention in S. Spain last December; vitamin D saved 1,000s of lives.
David Davis MP - who has a biochemistry degree - probably knows more than the other 649 MPs put together on the subject and gave a useful interview on Y.Tube. He's hit a brick wall, though, within the govt.
The NHS is beyond repair. If you want a long healthy life and don't want to be on 5-10 (mostly expensive and patented) drugs by the time you're 70, stay away from it.0 -
This thread has got a Vitamin D shot0
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Airdrie & ShottsGallowgate said:Get Anas Sarwar in the Commons
0 -
Nearly all the full time career offence taking people have a remarkable tendency to be able to dish it out but not take it. It may be bias but I see this more from progressives/left than from other. Have they any idea whatsoever how offensive a poster proclaiming 'Kill the Bill' is to ordinary opinion - or cop families. Dare I suggest that it is as offensive as the N word?BluestBlue said:
My only regret is that I have but one pair of hands with which to applaud this excellent post...Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.1 -
The Right got less than 49% across the UK.YBarddCwsc said:
It was one of the most Remain-dominated constituencies in the country. So, I am not too surprised.Andy_JS said:
The more important point is that right of centre parties could only muster 13%, less than in Glasgow East for example.YBarddCwsc said:
Of course, Bristol West was subject to the 'Remain Alliance' in 2019, so the LibDems stood down for the Greens.Casino_Royale said:
It lost Westbury-on-Trym, Stoke Bishop and Henleaze, which were more Tory inclined and went into Bristol North-West, but added Clifton East, Easton, and Lawrence Hill - which are far more left-wing.Andy_JS said:Bristol West used to be the most Tory seat in the city. William Waldegrave was the MP until May 1997.
Now Labour and the Greens get 87% between them. (There have been boundary changes since 1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
That said, the shift in votes reflects that of the urban middle/upper-middle class electorate.
It's been particularly pronounced amongst educated female graduate: I can think of four friends of mine, all female, who were at Bristol with me and Tory/pro-Thatcher etc. in 2000 who now vote Labour or Green.
That is why Labour + Greens = 87 % in Bristol West.
The Right could only muster 16 % in Cambridge.0 -
With Roger, it’s usually better and quicker not to inquire and assume he’s just got confused.Cyclefree said:
What on earth are you talking about?Roger said:
That would be impressive if it was written by anyone other than you. The person who was finding anti semitic tropes where no one else could see them. Imagine people being offended by a scribble on a wall.Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.0 -
The mural was obviously antisemitic, but you do have a point. If making Free Speech an icon, then we have to include free speech that is overtly offensive. Holocaust denial, homophobia, full on racism, incel misogyny, flag burners, all need to be protected.Roger said:
That would be impressive if it was written by anyone other than you. The person who was finding anti semitic tropes where no one else could see them. Imagine people being offended by a scribble on a wall.Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.
It is not just Muslims that would have to have much thicker skins.1 -
Kill the Bill is an old slogan. Kill the Parliamentary Bill, not the Old Bill.algarkirk said:
Nearly all the full time career offence taking people have a remarkable tendency to be able to dish it out but not take it. It may be bias but I see this more from progressives/left than from other. Have they any idea whatsoever how offensive a poster proclaiming 'Kill the Bill' is to ordinary opinion - or cop families. Dare I suggest that it is as offensive as the N word?BluestBlue said:
My only regret is that I have but one pair of hands with which to applaud this excellent post...Cyclefree said:ID cards under the pretext of dealing with Covid?
No. Just no. Vaccines deal with Covid. The health service deals with those vaccines cannot help.
No to a Chinese-style social credit system.
No fucking way.
And no to a blasphemy law introduced by the back door using the weaselly concept of offence, a way of allowing bullies of all types to stop others saying what they think and imposing their views on everyone else.
I am sick of hearing about people being offended. I really could not care less. You can choose whether or not to take offence. Politeness is given freely not demanded on the pain of threats. If you can't take criticism, whether unfair or not, piss off to an uninhabited island. A free society is meant for adults not over-sensitive toddlers.
Indeed, it is getting to the stage that in order to uphold our right to think and say what we want we will have to be as rude as possible to whichever snowflake is complaining that day until they get the fucking point. And when they do then we can go back to being courteous and polite - because we choose to be - not because we are too scared to upset the stupid narcissistic babies.
0 -
She’s right in what respect?SandyRentool said:0
